Forum menu
I see according to Swinson logic, Ken Clarke, who voted for Theresa May’s brexit deal every time, is a remainer, and Corbyn, who voted against it every time, is a brexiteer.
She's right. Ken Clarke is a lifelong Europhile. Jeremy Corbyn is a lifelong Euroskeptic. HTH.
Corbyn has not said he must be PM. He said he is the obvious choice.
Great, he can simply suggest another candidate and it can happen or if it doesn't he will have publically done his best to make it happen.
Since he would be going in and calling it the same day I find that somewhat unlikely.
Unless I'm very much mistaken be can't do that. Extension needs parliamentary approval, in order to call a GE he has to go through the motions of closing parliament. Calling a GE has to wait until after the extension is agreed unless its forced by a VonC then we get hard brexit.
Remember all he is saying right now is a government lasting five or so weeks which will
a)ask for an extension
b)call for a GE
c)in that GE Labour would be campaigning on the basis of a referendum.
5 weeks or so is a lot longer than an extension should require, but that aside, the only mechanism for ensuring he goes to the polls is a VonC, he can't time limit his tenure in advance any more because of the fixed term parliament act. So it comes down to trust, trusting him to go and or trusting him not to do anything else.
Trust is one thing i assume we can all agree isn't in great supply in the Hoc, especially of JC.
whatever Corbyn says he must want the opposite.
I don't think that, just I don't think he's a fool and I do think a GE would be a foolish thing to do (especially before a 2nd ref because there's every chance will end up with a house that doesn't support one [so we don't get one] after any GE even though it supported JC into power now to get one)
He said he is the obvious choice. I am certain he would agree another figure if and only if the numbers looked right.
He's only the obvious choice to the Labour front bench, and whilst I don't think the numbers look right for A N other they very definitely look wrong for JC.
I see the Lib Dems just announced their own shadow cabinet.
If only evil Jezza would just stop blocking Jo from leading a fantasy government with no mandate.
a fantasy government with no mandate.
We've currently got a government of fantasy, that depending on your opinion of where its derived from, has no mandate.
It's unlikely anybody but a true procedural geek would argue without at least a little doubt that any government resulting from a VonC has a mandate so why not let the lib dems in on the pantomime.
(conceivably a unity government/rainbow coalition could have a very strong mandate of course by picking a representative cabinet from across the house. Never happen though.)
I see the Lib Dems just announced their own shadow cabinet.
Having followed the link they'd be a strange party that didn't propose some form of cabinet prior to a GE.
I have never heard of the lib dems picking a shadow cabinet. They normally have spokepersons for each area of policy. this is just Swinson trying to big herself up.
Well yeah, usually it's "the opposition" that picks the shadow cabinet, because doesn't the shadow cabinet mean an "actual job"?
Anyway. Presumably, if there is some cross party cabinet being chosen, LD can say they have this lot all ready to go. I guess simply having a spokesperson for each area wouldn't be ready enough for the VoNC which might or might not happen. Potentially.
Yep, shadow cabinet is an actual job, they get paid extra for it. The LDs won't though, that's just posturing. Pretty hilarious really given that they've only got 14 MPs and a good few of them are in a precarious position.
Well yeah, usually it’s “the opposition” that picks the shadow cabinet, because doesn’t the shadow cabinet mean an “actual job”?
Interesting they chose to call it a shadow cabinet rather than anything else but (maybe they're not pretending they stand a chance of being elected to government), strictly speaking it's not a job in the way cabinet minister is though it serves a specific purpose of mirroring the cabinet proper (spokesperson is the equivalent position in the Lords to shadow minister in the commons).
It's certainly just for the "upcoming election" though and has rather more members than their current 12 sitting MPs.
Unless I’m very much mistaken be can’t do that. Extension needs parliamentary approval, in order to call a GE he has to go through the motions of closing parliament
if he has the support of enough then he can call it. There may be a few days delay but nothing significant. It could be scheduled in easily enough (unless Macron trying to cover up how he is screwing over anyone stupid enough to vote for him messes things up in the hope it will make him more popular).
So it comes down to trust, trusting him to go and or trusting him not to do anything else.
No trust required. They can just vote him out.
There seems to be a determined effort on the part of some to completely demonise him as some evil dictator ready to take over the world whilst, simultaneously being unable to run his own party.
It would be amusing if it wasnt letting Johnson and his disaster capitalist backers run amok.
The problem seems to be the "moderates" are worried a)about losing their own seats (Swinson who the likelihood is would get slaughter by SNP especially since chances are Labour would back off) or b)are completely incapable of accepting Corbyn for a few weeks for whatever reason. In most cases I suspect its because they realise their demonisation of him would fail in the face of him not usurping all power and setting up a dictatorship.
He said he is the obvious choice
Good latter from Corbyn to all those interested in stopping brexit to meet for discussions. No preconditions. I'll bet that Swinson makes some grandstanding ploy
CFH - he is the leader of the second biggest party
Yep, shadow cabinet is an actual job, they get paid extra for it
Maybe by their party but as far as the Hoc salary goes it's the same as a back bencher.
he is the leader of the second biggest party
Whilst I completely agree leader of the opposition is the obvious choice a) the irony of pointing out BJ is unelected isn't wasted on me. B) anyone who managed to loose to May isn't really the obvious choice to be in charge of anything.
I’ll take you up on that
Careful what you wish for, an hour in the pub with me and you might be wishing you'd voted farage in an effort to get the border twixt Scotland and England closed quicker than an snp voter can name two types of fish.
They can just vote him out.
Only if he has either already successfully sought an extension from the EU, or cancelled our exit from the EU… otherwise… time up… No Deal Brexit… no government… and an election… chaos. What if… no wait, bare with me, I’m not a hater… what if… he might not be considered by MPs to be the best person to go and talk to the EU in our current situation, given his past public distain for the EU… and also might not be someone who is universally trusted by MPs to recall our A50 notification if it comes to it.
Good latter from Corbyn to all those interested in stopping brexit to meet for discussions. No preconditions. I’ll bet that Swinson makes some grandstanding ploy.
Perhaps Swinson made the point that needs making… that others should be considered as the caretaker PM if this is going to work. Making that point before talks, rather than during or after, might well be “grandstanding”, or it might have been essential to move the Labour leadership towards a position that it needs to be in before Parliament sits… not further down the line.
he is the leader of the second biggest party
& that’ll be about as good as Labour will get whilst JC is at the wheel!
& that’ll be about as good as Labour will get whilst JC is at the wheel!
I can well imagine JC and Labour taking the largest number of seats at the next GE unfortunately I think they will be a significant minority and we'll end up with a hard right coalition instead with JC back as leader of the opposition claiming his victory in being the largest party by virtue of losing less seats than the conservatives who are still sat on the other benches with the DUP and brexit party to help keep them warm.
I've not read all the above so may have already been said.
The only real route to remain is through a 2nd referendum victory for remain. That requires 2nd ref parties (inc Labour) to take seats from Tories in a GE.
If that is the primary concern of the LDs, Swinson would be better served going after the Tories and not Labour. Pursuing Corbyn may well help the LDs take seats from Labour, but equally may mean Tory Labour marginals return Tories as the 2nd ref vote is split
I'm not saying that LDs shouldn't oppose Labour but the relentless pursuit of Labour and Corbyn smacks of personal political ambition more than any serious intent to stop Brexit
Ultimately the only way Swinson will have any say in any Govt on a 2nd ref is in support of a Labour led coalition. And she has put LDs firmly behind SNP, PC and green in those considerations.
Ultimately the transition is not important other than to achieve an extension of A50 and a GE (which Labour plus other 2 ref parties need to win). So whoever leads don't expect Tories lining up to support.
(which Labour plus other 2 ref parties need to win).
Unless, as Swinson and the LDs want a 2nd ref is held before the next GE which at least would give remainers all through the house something to get behind in voting down the government in a VonC, a GE doesn't, its a party platform for JC and campaigning for a 2nd ref in one is a gambit to get elected off brexit.
Regrettably I can't think of any party not trying to play brexit for its own gains at the moment. That might change on the 3rd but I don't hold out much hope. They're all too busy worrying who will be in charge of the sit heap afterwards to stop us getting there in the first instance. It pains me to say it but at least farage's lot are honest about it.
I can't see Parly supporting a temporary Govt for months required for a 2nd ref.
With almost half the MPs massively opposed it would be impossible to do any business - who would produce the Budget for a example.
Labour wouldn't support anyway so it's really a non-starter
And finally - there isn't a majority of committed enough remainers in Parly. There are 30ish leave with a deal MPs in Labour and only a few full remainers in the Tory party. It's avoiding no deal which is unifying
I can’t see Parly supporting a temporary Govt for months required for a 2nd ref.
Only needs be as long as getting the legislation through, which can be fast tracked to an extent. The other several months can be done after a GE.
With almost half the MPs massively opposed it would be impossible to do any business – who would produce the Budget for a example.
The current government has a majority of 1. The its not exactly been successful in getting other stuff done but the country hasn't fallen over yet.
Labour wouldn’t support anyway so it’s really a non-starter
And anything Labour supports it does so because its good for Labour so X doesn't support it and so on. Its the same merry dance which has gotten us here. You're not wrong, it's just depressing that you're right.
It’s avoiding no deal which is unifying
I don't think anyone has any idea how to do that though which doesn't either involve a ref on the deal or just sacking the whole thing off. It's not like any other government is going to get a deal which meets Labour's sisphean tests and sure as eggs is eggs you can expect a tory led opposition to hold any other govt to them.
Only needs be as long as getting the legislation through, which can be fast tracked to an extent. The other several months can be done after a GE.
If the Tories won the GE they could overturn any legislation passed before the GE
With almost half the MPs massively opposed it would be impossible to do any business – who would produce the Budget for a example.
We've not had a functional government for about 3 years.. I few more months won't matter.
Corbyns open letter to open talks about how to stop it all by any means will hopefully come to a cross party consensus.
I don't like corbyn, I don't particularly like Swinson, but what's needed now is a real agreement across everyone to stop the madness.
If the Tories won the GE they could overturn any legislation passed before the GE
Only by amending the (by then) existing legislation. That's something for which there is a timetable. It would be a very lucky (or huge majority) government which manged to overturn it before the referendum came due.
On the grand scheme of things the chance of it happening is tiny unless we returned a massive pro brexit majority to the house at the GE and frankly we're damned either way if we did then.
If the Tories stood on a platform of no 2nd ref and got a majority then their MPs would have no real choice but to support reversal of any 2nd ref legislation.
It would require primary legislation but it would be a simple Bill and wouldn't take long to pass if the Govt wanted to push through, using the Parliament Act if necessary.
...then again if we got that position I think the country would be heading rapidly towards an irrevocable political meltdiwn.
This is why I think a GE first with parties standing on a 2nd ref ticket would give a democratic legitimacy
Not that any option isn't without risks
Swinson doubles down.
Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, also accepted the invitation but argued that Corbyn should drop the idea of trying to become a temporary caretaker prime minister.
Still trying to conduct delicate negotiations via megaphone, still grandstanding trying to make herself look and feel important, still the largest obstacle in the way of stopping brexit
This is why I think a GE first with parties standing on a 2nd ref ticket
The root problem with brexit has always been the parliamentary arithmetic since the 2017 election. The only way to solve that is with an election.
Swinson is 100% right. Sorry. And she is right to push this very obvious issue in public I think… private talks with Corbyn’s team will be far too slow… they move at a glacial speed when dealt with in that way… the last few years have made that clear.
Nope - she is 100% wrong because she is grandstanding and making any deal harder. What she is doing is either the result of her political inexperience or deliberate.
She may well be right - but shouting about it in the press is extremely unhelpful.
compare her position to Sturgeons which is roughly " I don't much like Corbyn but I will do anything to stop this mess"
What Swinson is doing is all political posturing. By taking this entrenched position and continually doubling down on it she reduces everyones room to maneuver.
There are two weeks to get a caretaker PM agreed, and persuade all the MPs needed to topple this government. Corbyn needs to be made clear that if he wants the election he has been calling for since 2017, he needs to move fast, now, and get Conservative MPs to vote against their own government. He needs to accept another person in the temporary role… and he needs to be pushed hard to do so. He won’t just do so after a few backroom talks.
Kelvin - he needs to convince Tory MPs to vote against their own Government and to force a general election that they need to lose. This second consequence is going to me more of a blocker for Tory MPs than voting against Johnson initially in a VONC
All this stuff and unity Govt etc goes against normal political instincts - and this is what worries most about finding a way through
Kelvin - you are right about the difficulties. the issue is Swinson makes it worse by her attacks on corbyn which will simply entrench positions and makes compromise more less likely
If Corbyn now stands aside then it looks like a win for Swinson and a defeat for Corbyn - whereas if she had kept the negotiations behind closed doors it could be spun as a magnanimous compromise.
this is what she is doing - she is trying to set herself up as a major player / kingmaker instead of what she actually is - a minor player
its an extremely unhelpful tactic and one certain to backfire.
private talks with Corbyn’s team will be far too slow
There's nothing to talk about. Corbyn's plan is the simplest, quickest, most reliable plan on the table. All they have to do is support it. They won't though, because there's more important things apparently than stopping a no deal brexit. Swinson and co are complicating and obstructing it for their own narrow self-interest. They are the only people blocking it. Ask yourself why and what's more important.
Swinson is 100% right
Nope – she is 100% wrong
I think you're both right. She needs to get corbyn to commit in public to supporting (not an all options remain on the table support) another candidate.
Swinson (and I'm pretty sure JC) is well aware tory support is needed and JC won't get it. Behind closed doors would be lovely and with a different leader of the labour party might have been successful but they'd have got nowhere with JC who by all accounts is as intractable as May was.
Swinson is wrong to have put other names on the table.
The problem for JC with other candidates (individual policy aside) is :
Clarke (or any other tory for that matter) JC has adopted a hugely anti tory stance and rhetoric, he's painted them as the enemy to the point he can't support them. Any tory deal is damaging, any tory is bad, any tory government is Evil. His proactive support will crucify him for putting another tory on the throne.
He can't support another Labour candidate such as harman because it amounts to a coup, who ever is in the hot seat is leading their party into that GE, if it's labour at the helm that has to be corbyn.
Swinson or another lib dem is a no go, too much overlap with labour at the end of the party which doesn't like corbyn and labour has no votes to loose at the next GE, they need to take votes away from the LDs to prevent another damaging tory government (which rhetoric says is worse than any brexit, so winning a GE is more important than stopping no deal).
In theory snp, green or another might work but you'll not find one who'll get support of the house.
JC is the key to the whole thing, without him on board nothing works but he's made himself too toxic to be the answer and he's effectively got too comit hari kari to find another.
The compromise is to choose a member of the Shadow Cabinet who has supported Corbyn yet is someone that Tory rebels will be happy to send to the EU to talk… Starmer is the glaringly obvious candidate.
The “megaphone” tactics of Swinson grate with me as well… as they look as if she is taking sides with the possible rebel Conservative MPs… but parliament is balanced as it is, we can’t change that without an election… and those of us who would never vote Tory still want and need a caretaker PM that those Conservative MPs are prepared to destroy their own careers, and damage their own party, to support.
JC is never going to agree to another caretaker PM though, that would be political suicide for him. Given that what he really wants is Brexit but with a Labour deal I highly doubt he's willing to end his political career just to avoid a no deal Brexit.
At the same time Tory remainers know it would be political suicide for them to vote against their government in a VONC that led to JC being a caretaker PM
Hence VONC will be called with JC as the option for caretaker PM and it won't get enough support to pass
So no deal Brexit here we come...
The compromise is to choose a member of the Shadow Cabinet who has supported Corbyn yet is someone that Tory rebels will be happy to send to the EU to talk… Starmer is the glaringly obvious candidate.
Agree. Personally I think a GoNU is a non starter for reasons that are all over the media and have been stated in this thread but I see little difficulty in the "finding a caretaker candidate" part of the plan if Corbyn agreed to let someone else do it. It will be clearly understood that candidate is there for one job and one job only. Maybe better to choose a has-been who has no political ambitions. Jacqui Smith? Vince Cable? John Bercow!!!??? Harriet Harman.
Depending on your view point either JC is the impediment or "everyone else" is the impediment. Blaming "Everyone else" seems mental to me!
Liberals are as irrelevant as ever, even if they don't like the chosen candidate they can hardly vote with the Government against it so once the ball starts rolling they'll have to join in.
The compromise is to choose
A respected Labour peer who can't/won't stand in a GE. It needs to be someone who isn't a political threat to JC, is acceptable to the tories and simultaneously to momentum and preferably someone who has spent time on one or other front bench, ideally the government one.
Maybe Prescott is lefty enough to assuage the ardent corbynists but inoffensive enough for the tories.
Blunkett would go down well enough with the tories but he's spoken against JCs leadership before and I think he's likely too blairite to be acceptable to the Labour left.
Actually given his involvement in the the GFA and his vocal opposition to leaving, his threat to take BJ to court and his prior experience of being PM and dealing with the EU John Major probably wouldn't be a bad idea though I can't see the PLP going for it. (also the puppets are already made so maybe we get a new spitting image out of it too, that'd be a bonus)
It's not an easy puzzle.
its very noticeable that no other person or party involved in this is continually shouting Corbyn must go. Why is Swinson doing this - she is scared of Corbyn being seen as a leader not the demon he is painted to be and terrified of an election before she can represent herself as saviour of the UK.
It would not be political suicide for him to step aside for another person as PM in a caretaker government - it would probably play really well as statesman like and selfless.
A respected Labour peer
Good call. Or any peer. That's the perfect solution someone who can't be a threat to any existing leader.
It’s not an easy puzzle.
It is if you want it to be...
It would not be political suicide for him to step aside for another person as PM in a caretaker government – it would probably play really well as statesman like and selfless.
Indeed, so he should step aside. We can all agree with that.
it would probably play really well as statesman like and selfless.
I'm not sure you've ever met a sun reading swing voter (or read a sun headline for that matter)
To 10% of the population whose vote isn't going to change it'd play well. 90% would just see not corbyn being backed by corbyn.
Yes OOB - but shouting at him makes this less likely not more
Swinson either knows this and its deliberate because she fears Corbyn and an election more or she is showing her lack of political intelligence
Yes OOB
So we agree the right thing to do is to allow someone else to be temporary caretaker PM.
We agree this won't politically damage Corbyn and will probably increase his standing as a statesman.
So why doesn't he just do it? Oh yes, because he's a lifelong Brexiteer whos plan is to leave the Tory part in place to deliver Brexit and take the blame for it. A good strategy, but not one that plays well with Remainers.
Swinson either knows this and its deliberate because she fears Corbyn and an election more or she is showing her lack of political intelligence
Or both.
Swinson fears a GE because it's likely she and a few of her recently acquired MPs will lose their seats.
Her lack of political intelligence is obvious because the path she has chosen to take her party down will, once again, cause them to renege on one of their apparent core policies (2nd referendum), by refusing to compromise in order counter the Tories No Deal Brexit.
The bizarre thing is, by refusing to support Corbyn, the Lib Dems are by default aiding the Tories, once again.
The bizarre thing is, by refusing to support Corbyn, the Lib Dems are by default aiding the Tories, once again.
Or to look at it from the political reality in Westminster.
The bizarre thing is, in supporting Corbyn, the Lib Dems are by default aiding the Tories once again, by making it impossible for tory rebels to support a VonC.
A corbyn Govt lasting 5 hours, let alone 5 weeks, isn't going to get support. That's the reality.
A VonC is the only way parliament stops no deal and it has to be done on the 3rd of September.
Letting JC stand up and say "Vote for me" delivers no deal*.
A VonC which doesn't return a no confidence result delivers no deal*
A no confidence which doesn't deliver another prime minister in 14 days who will put forward an extension goes to a GE and no deal*.
JC is the problem. Whether that's because he's inept, or scary, or everyone else is being childish is irrelevant. He can not do what needs be done.
*The assumption being BJ doesn't turn out to be a unicorn wrangler.
He can not do what needs be done.
Actually that's unfair he can, what he needs to do is climb down and back someone who can unite, doing that dramatically and publicly with an "I accept I can't command the confidence of the house as it stands so in the interests of the UK I've agreed to back ??? To deliver extension and GE" will work well, if he doesn't leave it too late. To that extent the public wrangling is good, it means the actual work of finding a compromise candidate can be done behind closed doors whilst there's plenty of distraction outside. (the public side is also very good for making sure remainers know something is happening rather than parliament all being on their jollies and not thinking about it until 2nd September. It's very important for making sure BJ et al aren't the only ones in the news.)