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.....isnt in a good way.
10yr Italian govnt bonds traded at 6.96% this morning. This is where we find out how committed Germany is to their European ideals.
make that 7.25%
I shorted EURUSD when it broke out of the Asian session range, just after Frankfurt opened at 7am.
Italy is effectively buying me dinner at Gary Danko's next month. Grazie!
And an inverse yield curve.
Over 8% on 2 year
Scarry stuff.
Peter ... 2 whole points/or as good as ... unbelievable
Make a note in your dairy...
Only the figurehead has announced his intention to resign, the rest of the mess remains unaltered.
Ireland had 15 days above 7% before their bail out, greece 18 days and portugal 55.
I'm going to say Monday morning if not before for a massive dose of quant easing.
Italy's debt = (Greece+Ireland+Portugal) x 2.7
You cant just leave that to sort itself out.
Peter ... 2 whole points/or as good as ... unbelievableMake a note in your dairy...
150 pips locked in so far, and it's still rolling on. My stop loss order was really tight thanks to such low volume during the Asian session and a clean breakout with lots of momentum, so I'm in at £4 a pip.
Happy days.
The Euro is borked unless Germany or ECB (German proxy) agrees to underwrite eurozone debt.
It was always doomed to failure.
I've no idea what any of that means but I'm pleased for you Peter
Agreed , ECB has to print even if the Germans will hate it.
Real crisis stuff here ... There's no liquidity, Bond markets have almost completely dried up
Italy's debt = (Greece+Ireland+Portugal) x 2.7
😯 😥
The old goat won't go just yet. I expect right now he's busy negotiating his continued exemption from prosecution before he'll jump. And if he brings the entire European economy down in the process, hey ho. As long as he's alright....
He'll get immunity from prosecution (same as Chirac when he left office), and god knows what else, then waltz off to a Bunga Bunga party, kicking his heels, and leaving everyone else to pick up the pieces
I've no idea what any of that means but I'm pleased for you Peter
Hmmm - I used to be OK with this stuff a number of years ago, but these days I'm a litle uneasy about (the general concept of) profiting via shorting during the sh*tstorm of the last few ..
Lot of folks are going to suffer.
Hey ho, getting old/all altruistic maybe ... 😉
Hmmm - I used to be OK with this stuff a number of years ago, but these days I'm a litle uneasy about (the general concept of) profiting via shorting during the sh*tstorm of the last few ..
Naked shorting or just shorting in general?
I can understand the issues associated with naked shorting, but otherwise it's fair game to take a position on the other side of the fence. Why shouldn't it be?
peterfile - MemberI shorted EURUSD when it broke out of the Asian session range, just after Frankfurt opened at 7am.
Italy is effectively buying me dinner at Gary Danko's next month. Grazie!
Posted 1 hour ago # Report-Post
I'm not sure if this is ironic, ignorant or just very sad.
I'm a litle uneasy about (the general concept of) profiting via shorting during the sh*tstorm of the last few
Youre not alone, it's all fascinating and even a little satisfying to see the Euro come apart at the seams but real people are going to lose jobs and homes, in Greece, Italy and here in the UK.
If Italy goes bust I'm going to be out of a job by Christmas.
peterfileI can understand the issues associated with naked shorting, but otherwise it's fair game to take a position on the other side of the fence. Why shouldn't it be?
Because it makes you part of the problem not the solution?
I'm not sure if this is ironic, ignorant or just very sad.
Potentially all of the above, but regardless, it's profitable.
EURUSD was heading south regardless of whether a whole army of retail forex traders had short positions open, so what's the problem? Would you prefer that I had taken a long position whilst the big boys pushed the price in the total opposite direction? That would just be foolish.
mcboo - Memberit's all fascinating and even a little satisfying to see the Euro come apart at the seams
You sad man.
The euro will survive this anyway - just 'cos you want it to fail doesn't mean it will
Because it makes you part of the problem not the solution?
Shorting EURUSD at £4 a pip makes me part of the problem?
I'll apologise to the Eurozone for bringing it to it's knees immediately.
The sooner we have a Tobin tax on this sort of transaction the better. Its an outrage that it is possible to do this and to make the situation worse by so doing
Well as long as its profitable (for a select few) that's all ok then isn't it? 🙄
People are getting thier wires crossed. Not really such a thing as Shorting in FX trades... its just a figure of speech.
Peter in selling EUR over USD has in effect bought USD.
So he could quite easily have said, he bought USD over EUR.
Would that have been ok with everyone?
People are getting thier wires crossed
wouldnt be the first time in here.
Knee-jerk response to ignorance impulse in here is "it's bad juju, burn the witch"
Im short on the back of this.
Short of Oil.
But then I guess that's alright, aye?
Probably will get squeezed on more Iran/nuke talk and lose money. Then you can all be happy that a short has done doe....
OH but that'll mean the oil price has gone higher again and the cost of living has just shot up again for everyone....
damn those short sellers
TJ is one of the Guilty Men who thought the Euro was a great idea. He and everyone like him ought to be ashamed of themselves and APOLOGISE for what their idiotic project is doing to the people of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.
The euro will survive this anyway - just 'cos you want it to fail doesn't mean it will
The Euro was supposed to create stability, growth and employment. It has failed already.
might be safer if you both define "fail" first before this descends into a TJ wikathon.
McBoo - wishful thinking does not make it so.
The euro is a great Idea and I wish we had joined as it would have been even better with another large economy in it and we would have been better off.
Stoner - I was just going for gainsaying actually 🙂
It was never going to work. Ever! I can't see how anyone thought for a second that it would. Its like pooling all your resources with your next door neighbours, One of whom is a barrister, one of whom is on the dole, then pursuing a standard household budget that would suit you all. Madness!
Binners, you mean a bit like communism, then?
*blue touch paper lit, retires for a spot of brekker *
Growth - Over the last 5yrs Italy has experienced average GDP growth of 1%
Jobs - Unemployment in Spain is 20%
Stability - To date Ireland, Portugal and Greece have had to be bailed out by the IMF. It's only lunchtime so I may have to add Italy and/or Spain to that by tea-time.
So how has it succeeded then Jeremy?
Remember
wishful thinking does not make it so.
[genuine question] Can't they sell some of their huge stockpile of gold rather than get money from Euro partners?
They rank 3 in the world in stock levels, second only to USA and Germany (we're 17th).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
Very good [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15592197 ]article on the situation[/url] on the BBC website. Helped me understand it anyway.
only worth $140bn or so.
debt is around $2tn ish I gather.
Can't they sell some of their huge stockpile of gold rather than get money from Euro partners?
The Italian state has assets.....property, land, state owned business and cash and gold reserves.
But they owe 120% of GDP. Imagine every single business transaction, every Gucci handbag made, every meal in a cafe, every wage paid. Add them up over the course of a year and multiply that number by 1.2..... Thats how much they owe.
So Binners, a bit like the US or the UK then? you get areas of wealth and areas of poverty in all currency zones.
Only difference with the Euro is that there is more than one government involved. But then look at the US each state has some tax raising powers.
But then look at the US each state has some tax raising powers.
but there is still a big difference in the prosperity of those states...
Obviously they have to borrow money from the banks. Do banks really have more money than countries?
Do the banks not think that putting up the interest rates will cause huge problems. Why can't they just be nice and charge say 2%? Is it feasible that the governments of the world could dictate terms or are the banks running the world?
Can we declare war on the banks?
Why can't they just be nice and charge say 2%? Is it feasible that the governments of the world could dictate terms or are the banks running the world?
Can we declare war on the banks?
I can recommend an excellent book to help fill in the numerous and obvious gaps in your understanding of financial matters if you like?
It isnt the banks, its investors running scared because they are starting to understand that Italy might not be able to pay back all their debts. So investors (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds ie other countries like Japan, China, Norway) sell and the market price goes down and the yield goes up.
It all comes down to this. Everyone has to live within their means.
cc TJ will you Stoner.
Ive already mentioned it to him, not sure he's bought it yet. I have lost three copies myself lending them to others 🙂
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