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The day after Brexit nothing material will have changed…our standards and systems will still be aligned and in place and will be for the foreseeable after Brexit,
The problem is that's not true, Johnson & Truss are saying we will have a trade deal with America very soon after, that would mean massive divergence from from EU regs & both America & the EU would demand border checks
As I see it, The GFA was a giant fudge being in the EU allows there to be no border infrastructure as goods & people are under the same regs (mostly)
People in NI can move easily between the 2 and see themselves as citizens of either UK or Ireland.
The DUP don't seem to like that, they seem overjoyed at the prospect of direct rule, binding them closer to UK.
They calculate that their voters loyalty to loyalism trump's their fear of a hard border. They might be right.
But a hard border breaks the GFA and the republicans will not take it lying down.
Can't see Johnson allowing a border poll. If he did & Ireland were to be reunited, it would have to be done in a way that brings all sides together-remember how May didn't seek remainders consent after the ref- exactly the opposite of that.
Even then you'd have loyalists kicking off & while Ireland & the EU would be gaining some of the most deprived regions (look at East Germany post reunion)
UK meanwhile would have to offer citizenship to any loyalists that wanted it- mass influx of refugees from deprived regions..... Exactly what little English brexiters hate!
Kimbers the DUP may find that they gambled wrongly as a simple majority vote is required. All my moderate Unionist in-laws would take re-unification over a return to the old days. Along with the burgeoning Catholic/Nationalist population the numbers are against them.
Irish reunification would make good for tv. It'd be like Syria, only even more ridiculously pointless.
It would up Britain's GDP per capita and distract the home counties from Brexit, so Boris in his infinite wisdom will probably kickstart it by having some squaddies gun down a few old dears in Derry.
I think the dup would be willing to risk it, they saw their core vote hold up well in the EU elections, only a small shift to alliance party.
I'm sure they'd fight tooth & nail against a border poll, is it the ni secretary that has to grant it? Can't see the Tories doing that.
I think the NHS might be the biggest single obstacle to reunification at present, older people are more likely to vote and they are rightly fearful of the Irish Public Healthcare system being responsible for their end of life care.
Increasingly moderate Unionist leaders are talking about the possibility of a united Ireland and what it might look like and how the Unionist / Loyalist community might be accommodated in a "Union of Ireland" as they prefer to see it as term the "United Ireland" is toxic to them.
Mike Nesbith
There is also an excellent research paper by an Irish Senator called Mark Daly on Unionists attitudes to a united Ireland which is worth seeking out if you want a good insight into the attitudes of this community to reunification
I think the NHS might be the biggest single obstacle to reunification at present, older people are more likely to vote and they are rightly fearful of the Irish Public Healthcare system being responsible for their end of life care.
Would they up sticks & move to the UK?
A wave of NI immigrants will be deeply unpopular, with close ties to Scotland you'd think that would be a prime destination, but I can't see the SNP being happy with an influx of presumably anti independence unionists
The alternative is that the Tories thrash the NHS so much they make the Irish means based version look more attractive them. Some unionists have already said they would move - Arlene Foster for one so it's not all bad. There are parallels elsewhere I guess did ethnic Croats leave Serbia or even Czechs leave Slovakia probably not if they were business owners, farmers etc and their ownership rights were guaranteed.
Irish reunification would make good for tv. It’d be like Syria
You have a strange idea of what constitutes 'good tv'...
A wave of NI immigrants will be deeply unpopular, with close ties to Scotland you’d think that would be a prime destination
We've enough bigots here as it is, thank you very much.
The truth is that your average Tory brexiteer doesn't give a flying **** about Scotland, Wales or NI, it's more about English nationalism than any unionist ideals, which will eventually lead to the breakup.
Hopefully.
@kimbers - what is this citizenship you're waffling on about?
Look at your passport, what does it say?
@raybanwomble - I see you've sunk to your usual levels of stupidity with your Syria comment. Can you share with the rest of us why it'd be entertaining?
Read the second paragraph.
Poe's law.
kimbers – what is this citizenship you’re waffling on about?
Look at your passport, what does it say?
I dont get your point?
I was referring to the Belfast agreement where NI ctizens can chose to be Irish, British or both (as I understand it)
Nobeerinthefridge
We’ve enough bigots here as it is, thank you very much.
You're especially f'd if unification happens, the ayrshire coast will be viewed as primo ulstir scats territory! 😆
kimbers
Look at your passport, what does it say?
I dont get your point?
They already are citizens, they won't need to be granted anything.
El Shamino could have said that mind, instead of trying to be the thread overlord, pointer outer of errors and pourer of scorn! 😆
Ah yes, i didnt phrase that well
My point is reunification could see a wave of immigration (how many I dont know)
that wont necessarily be welcomed by the rUK
They couldn't stop them, anyhow, it's unlikely there'd be movement enmasse, you'd get something, but I doubt it'd be particularly significant.
Where does the GFA say that there can't be border infrastructure?
All I can see reading it, is that that the British Government should 'remove security installations'. Just those 3 words.
I assumed that means all the military hardware that was stationed.
https://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html
There is no border between NI and Ireland because Ireland and the UK joined the EU on the same day.
The GFA says that each country should 'commit to the principles of partnership, equality and mutual respect and to the protection of civil, political, social, economic and cultural rights in their respective jurisdictions'.
Which means Ireland is required to respect the border with the UK?
As I see it, Ireland is hijacking the GFA for the purposes of trying to achieve a borderless NI/ Ireland border for the purpose of furthering chances of future unification. But not playing ball with the UK could lead to a severe fiscal shock, and fundamentally the EU (Germany) has made it clear already that they will have to enforce a border of some kind (standards policicing if nothing else) with the UK if we leave. The UK can choose to ignore having infrastructure on our side, but Ireland, inside the EU can't. They're only other hope is for the NI community to be sufficiently put out by the 'border' that they will opt for unification in a future vote. Will the NI population be put out when there is a pre-existing CTA and they can even hold both passports?
Many, in fact most countries, share a land border with another, and manage it fine. Give that only a small fraction (5-10%) of goods are inspected between most borders, I can't see having goods inspected away from a 'border flashpoint' being unsurmountable. Either that of Ireland will have to have inspections between itself and the EU.
I remember the UK made it clear, that border, tariffs, standards were all tied together on the NI/I border, and that all matters should be mutually discussed together for this reason when negociations began with the EU.
Some depressing opinions on this thread, especially the person who wishes a syrian style civil war on fellow UK citizens.
I didnt realise that N.Ireland was such a horrible burden to the rest of the world.
I think you've managed to miss some key points about the border there
This article has a detailed look at why the border is such a problem.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/borderlands/keeping-peace
As I see it, Ireland is hijacking the GFA for the purposes of trying to achieve a borderless NI/ Ireland border
It was the UK government who committed to keeping the border open
And they are right to as that freedom to move across it underpins the GFA.
The UK can choose to ignore having infrastructure on our
You think countries we plan to do trade deals with will be happy that we can't guarantee what's coming in & out of our country?
That's the point of the notoriously slow WTO disputes process!
Likewise the EU will have to insist on either a relatively open border & low divergence,eg Norway & Switzerland (which still have considerable border infrastructure or a much harder border & hi divergence as they do along the eastern edge)
It's the entire reason for the backstop and so far the brexiters have failed utterly to come up with an alternative
The PSNI have said they already are overstretched handling smuggling at the moment, when we have the kind of divergence that the brexiteers are promising with our American trade deals that will explode
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48785585
Blaming Ireland for 'hijacking' the border issue is just the same old brexiteer ignorance
Read the view from inside vote leave.. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-brexiteers-forgot-about-the-border-1.3831635
Its simply impossible to have an open border between NI and Ireland, the UK out of the EU including customs union and no border in the irish sea. Its a legal impossibility
Some depressing opinions on this thread, especially the person who wishes a syrian style civil war on fellow UK citizens
To clarify, it’s not that I wish it, it’s that the violence will be used as a distraction to no deal brexit by people like Boris and English nationalists or as an excuse to end the union.
Ethno-fascist tropes such as catholics outbreeding protestants really has no bearing on the prospects for UI. In the noughties we saw that the wealthier catholic middle class were quite happy to vote moderate unionism. On the other side of the coin, self-interested protestant middle class will go for UI if, as is happening, it starts to look like a better economic prospect.
Joining Ireland really holds no fears. It is not the economically moribund, stifling theocracy (relatively speaking) it used to be. The roles have quite startlingly reversed.
Some amusing responses on this thread!
Just to add to the views from inside NI...
There will be untold civil unrest if a UI happens. Regardless of the majority who vote in favour of it.
A 'new' Ireland won't be able to keep much of its identity - national flag, national anthem, health service, police service, government infrastructure. The 'Trojan' horse of equality will turn around and head for Dublin - Ulster-Scots language act in the ROI?
Passport checks at Campbeltown, Cairnryan, Liverpool or indeed airports etc will not be tolerated.
Will the ROI be able to stomach having 'Brits' as an integral part of their government?
Already stated but 6-7billion pa to keep NI going, can Dublin support that?
Dublin has 26 other partner countries it can rely on to chip in and help with any financial issues following a positive Border Poll result no?
The nation XX is a financial burden on rump UK and we'd be better off financially without it but we keep it as we are so magnanimous trope keeps reoccurring these days whether it's used in conjunction with NI, Wales or Scotland. I suspect it was something that was said of every nation that left the British Empire.
A ‘new’ Ireland won’t be able to keep much of its identity – national flag, national anthem, health service, police service, government infrastructure.
That much is evident. NI would only ever vote for UI with their wallet, not because they've suddenly become GAA supporting leprechaun enthusiasts.
There will be untold civil unrest if a UI happens. Regardless of the majority who vote in favour of it.
See this I don't quite get. After a UI Loyalist terrorists wouldn't be a) reacting against Republican terrorism, b) be state sponsored/supported by the UK as they were during the troubles, and c) they won't be railing against any civil rights injustice (unless Dublin seriously drops the ball). When you say "untold" you make it sound like it would be worse than the troubles, but I just don't see that the ingredients are there.
@crimsondynamo - you make it sound like the loyalist terrorists are a bunch of ideologically driven freedom fighters as opposed to the common-garden, yet well tooled-up, gangsters that they really are. This is true on both "sides" of the "struggle".
A wave of NI immigrants will be deeply unpopular, with close ties to Scotland you’d think that would be a prime destination, but I can’t see the SNP being happy with an influx of presumably anti independence unionists
Bollocks, 3.5 million EU nationals have been absorbed into the UK. English speaking with a similar culture they would just disappear into ESW without any real pain. Might be eased with a (controversial) "choose" and removal of Irish nationals special status and then convert them into EU citizens for immigration status.
NI is a Gordian knot of a problem that the GFA does a good job of managing whilst waiting for the nutters to die off. The reality on the ground is that for some bullets and bombs are preferable to the ballot box, the old paramilitary organisations are continuing their organised crime activities and the society accepts that gunmen in either community is "normal" and the mainstream UK media rarely shine a light into the darker parts of NI because like everyone else, they are scared of the nutters.
Would this be acceptable anywhere in Britain?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49153095
Why after the Good Friday Agreement hasn't SF, SDLP, the church, or PSNI not taken them down?
Is basic criminality not pretty straightforward to deal with when it's not underpinned by civil rights issues/community support?
it is but seemingly in NI normal rules seldom apply.
Bollocks, 3.5 million EU nationals have been absorbed into the UK.
In case you hadn't noticed there has been some kickback to that, including a nation splitting referendum, our press love nothing better that to whip up a hate mob against immigrants
crimsondynamo
When you say “untold” you make it sound like it would be worse than the troubles, but I just don’t see that the ingredients are there.
I think this is very true, people talk about Ni as if it's still the 60/70s, the conditions there are very different these days. "Civil War" as many like to say will happen, won't.
What ever the outcome, there will be increased rioting and perhaps a bit of dissident activity, depending on which way it goes. But it'll be far off what the war used to be.
Not a civil war but civil unrest - loyalists fighting the 'Irish' state as they would see it. They will see it as a way forward as it furthered the SF/IRA cause.
Not sure a new Ireland will be able to move far enough to appease the Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist community whilst keeping Nationalists happy. The PUL community view a UI as a Nationalist victory and we know how battles are viewed in NI, even 400 years on.
“I suspect that most “unionists” in NI are fed up of it all and would rather be with Eire in the EU than with the UK outside it.
Militant unionists and ” the unionist community” are not the same thing. I suspect a decent majority for reunification if the UK crashes out and thus no real nastyness from the unionist paramilitaries – whoa re basically criminal gangs anyway.”
Well there you go. That’s the one single stupidest post I’ve ever seen.
Where does the GFA say that there can’t be border infrastructure?
I've linked to it before on the EU thread.
The Belfast agreement doesn't specifically mention a border but...
the right to equal opportunity in all social and economic activity,
regardless of class, creed, disability, gender or ethnicity;
And
the right to freely choose one’s place of residence;
.. This means border checks would be a breach of the agreement. An example would be someone with a place of business one side of the border and a residence on the other.. If they are getting checked when the move between, they are being denied thier right to equal opportunity in all social and economic activity, compared to say an individual that conducts all thier business and social activity exclusively on one side or the other..
So whilst the border isn't specifically mentioned in the document, it's rulled out by default.
Or even if you want to go for a pint but you're in ROI and your mate lives in NI, you get checked at a border going to the pub. You'll have been denied your right to equal opportunity in your persuit of a social activity, compared to say, of you both live on the same side so you don't need to go through customs to meet your mate for a pint.
IANAL but I can't see why that's confusing, the document is written in pretty plain language, it's only about 30 odd pages long. presumably to prevent political wrangling and other shenanigans.
There's the argument they'll only check commercial traffic, but that's still a breach and it would be a smugglers paradise. People would simply start smuggling goods in private vehicles and no one wants that. Not the USA, not the EU, not the UK and not Ireland.
USA, UK, EU and Ireland all agree open border is necessary under GF agreement.
I think you can take it as read. Not sure why swivel-eyed Singletrack forumites are trying to pick it apart!