I was looking at military flights over the North Sea and then zoomed out and spotted a Global Hawk looping around UAE and Straits of Hormuz.
it's pretty meaningless - opposing who, who is everyone else fully onboard with ?
Exactly. It's a ridiculous thing to say because the region is full of competing groups. None of them are really friends of the U.S., but many want support from the U.S. because they are opposed to Iran. Beyond the "enemy of my enemy" motivation, they all have their own agendas that only align with the U.S. in that they oppose Iran.
America has issued a nofly notice over Iran
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mbwocfgnqk2i
Internet is cut off for the country but still some images coming out
. https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbwqzxcnuc2f
The last time there was a revolution in Iran, a western backed tyrant was replaced with just another tyrannical leadership.
The worry now with the state of geopolitics that if they succeed in ridding themselves of these tyrants they could end up with another US backed tyrant.
If the opportunity is there to rid themselves of the current leaders, the people have to strike now, but I wish this could have happened 2 years ago.
Israel seems to have been notably quiet so far, im not sure whether they think it's a case of better the devil you know...
Are the Mullers mullered?
Are the Mullers mullered?
Hopefully but that said these protests are apparently still smaller than the 2023 ones. The government are unfortunately pretty good at controlling dissent. Guess it depends how accurate or not that bluesky message is. If the government is fracturing then that improves the chances.
Not sure the Shahs son trying to get involved is a great sign for getting rid of a authoritarian government. His family doesnt exactly have the best history.
Israel seems to have been notably quiet so far, im not sure whether they think it's a case of better the devil you know...
Never interrupt your enemy when they are destroying themselves.
Hopefully but that said these protests are apparently still smaller than the 2023 ones. The government are unfortunately pretty good at controlling dissent. Guess it depends how accurate or not that bluesky message is. If the government is fracturing then that improves the chances.
Ive not taken anything from social media at face value for quite some time now. There's just so much blatant dis/misinformation out there generated by everything from individuals, to state actors, billionaires and AI that it's increasingly meaningless to buy into anything early on.
Israel seems to have been notably quiet so far, im not sure whether they think it's a case of better the devil you know...
I can't imagine how Israel getting involved wouldn't give the Iranian leadership a thing to rally people against.
Maybe an "onside" Iran gives Isreal less leverage to keep the west turning a blind eye to their even worse human rights record.
I have a feeling that this time is the one, - we’ll see.
I have a feeling that this time is the one, - we’ll see.
Iran’s supreme leader signals harsher crackdown as protest movement swells | Iran | The Guardian
Guardian reporting that the Iranian leadership is promising a crackdown but it looks from outside like they've completely lost control so I'm not sure how that'll work?
Looking at the protest sites they seem to show some patterns, I wonder why.
I wonder if the young population is also easily persuaded.
The question is whether if they order the revolutionary guard to go in and arrest/kill the protesters they will.
At the moment they seem to be loyal to the regime, theres also not any opposition party or leader as such
The question is whether if they order the revolutionary guard to go in and arrest/kill the protesters they will.
I don't think that will happen because they will walk straight into the trap if they start shooting or killing. Better to spray the protestors with water cannon.
It’s being reported that they’re using Iraqi mercenaries to shoot Iranian protesters. The number of deaths are anywhere between several hundreds and several thousands, depending on where you’re looking for news.
Some pretty horrific numbers being talked about for the death toll of the crackdown while the internet was shut off,
Im not entirely sure what Trump will be able to do to , Im assuming the leadership are in bunkers well underground
Protests still happening
Much as the idea of Khamenei hanging out in the Southwestern suburbs of Moscow with Akayev, Yanukovych and Assad sounds amusing, I don't see it. Iran has still got a lot of influence in Iraq: if he can't step in the footsteps of Khomeini and hang out in exile there, then Azerbaijan or Qatar feels a bit more likely.
Looking at the protest sites they seem to show some patterns, I wonder why.
I wonder if the young population is also easily persuaded.
Looks very similar to the map Google shows for the largest cities in Iran, I wonder why?
I can`t help thinking that Trumps comment of "help is on its way" is merely encouraging those protesters to continue. Its hard to imagine Russia and China not intervening this time if Trump bombs them.
Its hard to imagine Russia and China not intervening this time if Trump bombs them.
Not sure there's anything Russia could even vaguely do, especially since they lost their base at Tartus
also don't see China stepping in to help any time soon
the issue is more that theres just not many targets to hit the regime with that wouldn't likely hit civilians too
I can`t help thinking that Trumps comment of "help is on its way" is merely encouraging those protesters to continue. Its hard to imagine Russia and China not intervening this time if Trump bombs them.
The aim is to keep the pressure on the Iranian govt but the problem is who will govern Iran if the overthrowing of the current govt succeed? What will happen to those who support the current govt? Are they going to do the same to those who support the current govt? That's a lot of people.
For almost 1,000 years, Iran has always been governed by the minority not of the Persian origin (majority population) and for some reasons the Persian simply let them be. From Azerbaijan to the Arabs etc, they simply let them governed for whatever reasons.
If I am not mistaken, there are 4 to 5 big clans (still minority) that hold power and enjoy extra power privilege (including financial benefits) than the majority. Is the Shah (King) better? No, hence he was deposed because, as usual, the benefits were only enjoyed by his clique only.
The main goal of US admin is basically to destroy the remaining nuclear sites as there were really not destroyed in the 12 days war previously.
If "help is on its way", my guess is the use of special forces to carry out " regime decapitation" of the leadership of the revolutionary guards and to "encourage" the normal arm forces to take over, but the normal arm forces are poorly equipped. The revolutionary guards will fight to the end if they know the consequences awaiting them if they are defeated. If this happens, Iran will descent into something like a civil war, and will look like Syria. If that happens, then the current protesters will have to wait for a long time before things get better.
Not sure there's anything Russia could even vaguely do, especially since they lost their base at Tartus
also don't see China stepping in to help any time soon
the issue is more that theres just not many targets to hit the regime with that wouldn't likely hit civilians too
Russia has their handful with Ukraine so there will be minimal help only.
China will only observe with no intervention.
Both will not supply advanced weapon technologies because those technologies will fall into wrong hands.
The targets are senior regime leaderships as the information easily available (plenty of moles on the ground), and to destroy the nuclear sites.
Not sure there's anything Russia could even vaguely do, especially since they lost their base at Tartus
also don't see China stepping in to help any time soon
I wasn't thinking anything overtly - more covertly as Russia do so infamously, and maybe China do even better ..
Russia, China and Iran are very close. It hard to imagine Iran not getting supported by them.
Its hard to imagine Russia and China not intervening this time if Trump bombs them.
Not sure there's anything Russia could even vaguely do, especially since they lost their base at Tartus
Tartus?!?! That's 1000 miles in the wrong direction.
Russia is only separated from Iran by Azerbaijan. It's 130 miles between Russian and Iranian territory at its narrowest point. It's a short flight from the military installations in Southern Russia to Tehran over the Caspian Sea.
I don't know whay they'd do when they got there, though, having been thoroughly pwned in Syria and Mali when they tried to do anti-insurgency/public order operations...
Is the Shah (King) better? No, hence he was deposed because, as usual, the benefits were only enjoyed by his clique only.
There's an option of Maryam Rajavi with a ten point plan that she presented in Europe a decade ago and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which has 25 committees in exile that perform shadow governmental functions.
The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) aka People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) aka Mojahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) was formed in 1965 and contributed to the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. It wanted democracy then but was denied and in turn refused to acknowledge the new constitution.
That stance cost the MEK the chance to stand for the Presidency.
In 1980 the MEK political wing under Massoud Rajavi (disappeared in 2003) and Maryam Rajavi gained the second highest number of parliamentary votes, so the Supreme Leader denied them seats there too.
If "help is on its way"
That's code for "I don't know what to do".
There's a risk that US action will cause an anti-American swing and divert attention from the current regime.
There aren't any easy options, the US default of air strikes probably won't achieve much because the regime will be in shelters
There's reporting (mostly CBS news) that up to 20,000 protesters have been killed. The official toll is about 1000-1200. There are other news outlets saying "perhaps as many as 12,000" but CBS is the outlier. Reports from doctor and hospitals that are managing to get out are saying they're overwhelmed - which seems at least to indicate the official numbers are vastly under-reported.
I can't see a regime that's content to kill thousands of its own citizens to maintain power, lasting much longer
I don't know whay they'd do when they got there, though, having been thoroughly pwned in Syria and Mali when they tried to do anti-insurgency/public order operations...
The dirty work
There's reporting (mostly CBS news) that up to 20,000 protesters have been killed.
I believe there's a 40 day mourning cycle in Shia Islam, and in 1979 the regime inadvertently maintained the momentum of protests as a result. Protesters murdered -> buried quickly -> 40 days later commemoration becomes protest -> more protesters shot -> buried quickly -> 40 days later...
Hmm being reported the US is reducing personnel numbers in Qatar. That looks quite like a telegraphing of some kind of action!
Reports although flimsy of fast jets over Iraq. Sonic booms ECT.
Iran has closed its air space.
I can't see a regime that's content to kill thousands of its own citizens to maintain power, lasting much longer
Unfortunately it will depend on how many of the citizens still support it and who has all the weapons. Tyranny can be kept up indefinitely until sufficient number of the enforcers switch sides. So far I dont think there has been much evidence of that happening.
In terms of the official death tolls they state 100 security personnel have died so the overall count of a thousand is implausible. I wouldnt be surprised if the death count was closer to the CBS figures.
In the hopeful event that this comes good for the people of Iran, is there any likelihood that the authorities can be held responsible for the massacres of civilians?
Who knows? You might end up with an Iraqi-style total purge of the bureaucracy/security forces or you might end up with a post-Soviet arrangement where practically everyone keeps their job under a new boss.
In the hopeful event that this comes good for the people of Iran, is there any likelihood that the authorities can be held responsible for the massacres of civilians?
Collectively and morally? Yes
Individually and personally? Highly unlikely. Not in their lifetimes, anyway, as many of them are elderly
I'm sure that demon in human clothing Hesgeth and the orange man baby would be only too happy to have their toys go boom boom over Iran, so it's to whoever's credit that's stopping them from making the situation worst for the people by persuading them not to start flinging high-explosive shit all over the country.
Are the protests still going or has the slaughter been effective in suppressing them. I.e is trump claiming credit for stopping something that only stopped cos there was no one else to kill?
Are the protests still going or has the slaughter been effective in suppressing them. I.e is trump claiming credit for stopping something that only stopped cos there was no one else to kill?
There’s an almost total blackout of the internet in Iran, along with most other media, so from what I can understand it’s very difficult to get any information as to whether the protests are still happening.
Well, who could have guessed that this would happen…
