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Just wishing the UK doesn't get drawn too far into this. Trump saying UK sending mine sweeping ships ..
He's not even the cleverest person in the room when he's on the shitter.
I'm Donny's big beautiful poo, very high IQ. The highest fecal MENSA results ever. Higher than Donny's, everyone is saying it. I've passed all the tests, they couldn't believe it....
Trump now threatening to block the strait of Hormuz, are they going to start shooting Chinese tankers?
I did read an bluesky whatever they call them from a military historian (his blog is great), who really isnt a fan of the special military operation, who suggested last week that a US blockade would actually be the right thing for them to do.
Roughly paraphrasing (recommend you look up his posts directly) its a bad idea for your opponent to be the person to be deciding what can be shipped. If you are also blocking shipping then a)other countries cant just pander to your opponent and b) your opponent can benefit from being able to ship through the blockade.
Its a variant on the invade/damage beyond quick repair Kharg island. Currently the US genius strategy is resulting in Iran making more money from oil than in the past. So how to fix that?
A selected quote from a BBC report on one of the shitgibbon's Truth Social posts today today:-
Before these talks, he claimed there has been regime change in Iran, with new and more "reasonable" leaders, but they are now "volatile, difficult, unpredictable people".
(My bold)
There's that famous American absence of irony yet again.
Putin will be on the phone right now, reassuring Iran that he will share the profits from rocketing oil prices so long as Iran keeps sharing drones to send into Ukraine.
This is terrible for the free world.
Just wishing the UK doesn't get drawn too far into this. Trump saying UK sending mine sweeping ships ..
If the Iranians have mined the starit, then all countires will need to be sending minesweepers as and when the straits reopen. I'd see that as part of the solution, not being drawn into the problem.
Some interesting stuff in the background about the fallout between Spain and Israel. The way Israel is throwing diplomatic toys out the pram makes me think the Spanish are handling this really well.
There's that famous American absence of irony yet again.
With this lot every accusation is a confession.
Personally I am shocked that a bunch of real estate developers and a fallguy couldnt get a deal done.
Unfortunately I really do think that he believes that he's the cleverest person in the room...
Power and glory make him delusional.
He is the type of glorify pseudo-transformational leader that only thinks of being praised, which inevitably makes it worst for his delusion.
If the Iranians have mined the starit, then all countires will need to be sending minesweepers as and when the straits reopen. I'd see that as part of the solution, not being drawn into the problem.
There are not many minesweepers around nowadays. Also the different types of mines make it very difficult to get the job done.
I'd see that as part of the solution, not being drawn into the problem
If the US are blockading the strait whilst at same time NATO ships are sailing it and apparently clearing the mines - it would be easy to get the two missions muddled.
NATO, especially the UK, should stay well away until the USA/Israel cease hostilities. Trump caused the problem - let him sacrifice US bodies to sort it out.
I assume Yvette Cooper will be denouncing this flagrant violation of the law of the sea?
I'd see that as part of the solution, not being drawn into the problem
If the US are blockading the strait whilst at same time NATO ships are sailing it and apparently clearing the mines - it would be easy to get the two missions muddled.
NATO, especially the UK, should stay well away until the USA/Israel cease hostilities. Trump caused the problem - let him sacrifice US bodies to sort it out.
Maybe I wasn't clear enough when I said "when the straits reopen". In no way was I suggesting that any UK involvement should take place while this US shitshow is ongoing.
So what does taco Trump do when a Chinese tanker decides they are going to go just where they want
Hopefully the sensible thing and let them get on with their journey.
The alternative is the Franz Ferdinand moment to WW3.
He is the type of glorify pseudo-transformational leader that only thinks of being praised, which inevitably makes it worst for his delusion.
That sounds like many of the big 4 consultants I’ve had the pleasure of having to tolerate
Only just looked at today's news...
So finally the genuinely 'friggin mad bastards need to open the straight!'
I mean, we really are at the point where we have to consider we are all living in a computer simulation now aren't we? This is obviously the stress test phase of the SIM. 😉
I mean wtf?
The alternative is the Franz Ferdinand moment to WW3.
Nobody wants that. God forbid it happens, I think China would let the rest of the world try and get Trump back in his box rather than retaliate militarily straight away
There were naff all ships going through the toll booth anyway. I dont think there will be much of a change. The gas prices will stay high, everyone will still be cross with Donald
So what does taco Trump do when a Chinese tanker decides they are going to go just where they want
They have to remember that two Chinese destroyers / cruisers (largest in the world) are nearby and they will have to think twice before taking any action, unless they want to start WWIII.
You’ve got to hand it to the tangerine toddler. He’ll consistently choose the wrong course of action every single time.
Are we reaching the point now where the rest of the world simply sidelines America and Israel and just makes their own arrangements instead?
I certainly hope so
Absolutely nobody is going to help Trump out of the hole he’s dug himself and he can’t just permanently station a navy out in the Gulf
I'm guessing Trump is now considering shooting missiles into all the gulf states to totally win against Iran.
I mean, then Iran truly don't have anything to bargain with!
It's totally logical in the Trump Universe surely?😉
China would let the rest of the world try and get Trump back in his box
I think China are more level headed. They certainly seem to be less reactionary.
You could say that they're assessing the situation/shitshow from above, like a vulture soaring high up looking down at it's potential meal.
Absolutely nobody is going to help Trump out of the hole he’s dug himself and he can’t just permanently station a navy out in the Gulf
Those UK minesweepers still on their way?
I'm guessing Trump is now considering shooting missiles into all the gulf states to totally win against Iran.
I mean, then Iran truly don't have anything to bargain with!
It's totally logical in the Trump Universe surely?
Bargain? Negotiate? At this level? Trump only knows of bombing and getting praise. He thinks his real estate is the world with all his bombs.
Can china blockade the American blockade of the Iranian blockade?
Can china blockade the American blockade of the Iranian blockade?
It's like playing Chinese Weichi (or Weiqi)
I think China are more level headed. They certainly seem to be less reactionary
It’s almost as if they think about all the possible repercussions of their actions before they take them, rather than doing everything on impulse?
And when they do take actions they do so quietly and discreetly, rather than announce everything via a foghorn
Mate, you need to go for a walk or have a toke.... Or both. Or just not visit this thread for a while.
Judging by your replies here your blood pressure must be through the roof.....
yeah Iran can play this game too
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjdbfgwvv22q
anyway, looks like be the rw press now want us to get in on the next phase of trump's stupidity
https://bsky.app/profile/jacksurfleet.bsky.social/post/3mjdayjpkgc2w
Judging by your replies here your blood pressure must be through the roof.....
I think binners is sounding quite calm and logical.
Is Trump now threatening to shoot his own foot or Iran's?
So what does taco Trump do when a Chinese tanker decides they are going to go just where they want
Or when Iran starts flirting missiles around the Gulf states in response to the blockade
Another TACO cycle coming right up. My shares ISA is ready... 😀
PS. Is it just me or is implementing your own blockade on the SOH on top of the Iranian blockade only going to make the global economic picture worse and drag China into an already febrile situation?
Nothing to see here, just Israel doing what it does best……….they lie…….and lie……and lie……and lie……
https://bsky.app/profile/ayoub.bsky.social/post/3mjep3fawqs27
and drag China into an already febrile situation?
I'd imagine the thinking here is: China is utterly reliant on Straits of Hormuz being open. I think oil reserves run out in early June if nothing changes. It's got limited options, including sending it's navy to escort tankers, which the Chinese are not going to do, there's no way the Chinese are going to put themselves in a situation where they have a face off with the US Navy. So the only sensible option is persuade Iran to re-open the straights.
China will obviously not want to do Trump's dirty work for him, but they're otherwise on the horns of a dilemma, and all the other options are much worse.
Vance accuses Iran of economic terrorism.
Unlike slapping tariffs on thing at random causing the markets to react, that's completely different.
and drag China into an already febrile situation?
I'd imagine the thinking here is: China is utterly reliant on Straits of Hormuz being open. I think oil reserves run out in early June if nothing changes. It's got limited options, including sending it's navy to escort tankers, which the Chinese are not going to do, there's no way the Chinese are going to put themselves in a situation where they have a face off with the US Navy. So the only sensible option is persuade Iran to re-open the straights.
China will obviously not want to do Trump's dirty work for him, but they're otherwise on the horns of a dilemma, and all the other options are much worse.
China holds reserves of around 1.4 billion barrels - approx 100 days supply. That assumes they have no other sources, which they do. They can sit this out for a long time.
approx 100 days supply.
so July rather than June then? Even if if they have a extra month, there's no way an economy like China can afford to sit on its hands and wait it out.
China has it's friend to the north who needs to sell oil.
China is the main importer of Iranian oil. it's other main suppliers are Russia and Venezuela.
approx 100 days supply.
so July rather than June then? Even if if they have a extra month, there's no way an economy like China can afford to sit on its hands and wait it out.
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
An oil shock is inevitable at some point and China has planned accordingly.
Even if if they have a extra month, there's no way an economy like China can afford to sit on its hands and wait it out.
They have more breathing space than many other economies. Might help stop them eyeing up Taiwan for a bit though until they restock.
China will be thinking they can weather higher oil prices better than US consumers. They'll be happy enough to let this one play out a good while longer. No need for dramas involving their ships!
China is the main importer of Iranian oil. it's other main suppliers are Russia and Venezuela.
Officially China doesn't import any oil from Iran (since 2022) - although intelligence suggests about 12% of its oil comes from Iran and is rebadged in Malaysian etc.
About 42% of its oil does come from the Gulf though - so unless Saudi Arabia can deliver that much through its Red Sea terminal is going to be a problem (and assumes that Iran's "friends" in Yemen don't decide to help trump's global chaos initiative) - but its probably more of a problem for countries with a moral conscience who don't want to fund Putin.
China might be part of the solution but I suspect there are oil producing countries in the middle east who's revenue stream is cut off who will crack first, the question is which side will they take? Or as cost of goods for everything asian creeps up will it actually be the American's who flinch first?
I think the effect long term will be to push them even harder to become self-sufficient. But all of their options. Re-routing from Russia; I reckon the Siberia 2 pipeline project looks v attractive right now. Producing its own gas and oil supplies, even increasing imports from SA are all long term solutions, and all of it assumes that their strategic reserves are at capacity.
No need for dramas involving their ships!
I think it's the last thing the Chinese want, which is why I think the'll lead the negotiations to get oil moving through the straights as soon as they can. Their short term economic security relies on cheap oil imports
Might help stop them eyeing up Taiwan for a bit though until they restock.
I'd bet money the stock of oil for the military won't be effected by this.
to get oil moving through the straights as soon as they can.
You might well be right. My moneys on them letting this run on a good way towards november all the same.
Probably the third time I've posted this... but it's a combination of China/India/****stan that'll get things moving... Europe are bystanders, and the Gulf countries are hampered by everything the USA are doing and saying.
You might well be right. My moneys on them letting this run on a good way towards November all the same.
When you're looking at countries like Iran and China, they're people who famously play the long game, over decades if necessary. The main advantage of not having to bother with that pesky democracy business, I suppose.
Trump has the attention span of a hyperactive toddler after a can of Red Bull and has already forgotten what he said this time yesterday.
There's only going to be one winner here and I think everyone but Trump and co know it. 'The Markets' must all know it, thankfully, otherwise oil would surely be $200+ a barrel by now, but it isn't.
Iran and China (and Russia) will happily just let this run. Trump can't 'blockade' a 1500 mile stretch of coastline and an ocean for long, if at all. Another bonus for them is the comparison with the UK after Suez. Every day this goes on, the US is diminished as the world can see the obvious limits of all those hundreds of billions of military expenditure. All those planes and aircraft carriers and all it takes is some drones and a few small boats packed with explosives and its stalemate.
Its probably worth another look at that Economist cover, regarding China....
All those planes and aircraft carriers and all it takes is some drones and a few small boats packed with explosives and its stalemate
There's a bit in the Watchmen where Rorschach tells the prisoners that he's not locked in with them, but they're locked in with him, and the US being in the Gulf (at least militarily if not strategically) is kinda similar. Yes, the Iranians have endless supplies of drones and what not, but lets not kid ourselves that the US isn't more destructive and powerful by orders of magnitude. They can reduce Iran to rubble should they wish to. The war needs to stop, and Iran are probably going to have to back down, even if they get told that by the Chinese and ****stanis, because the Americans aren't going away otherwise, and the rest of the world need them to GTFO
While that all may be the case, can you see the US having gained anything by the time this is nominally 'over'?
Their status is massively diminished, they're essentially now friendless, having burnt pretty much every bridge with former allies, the Iranian regime is still there and is emboldened in the knowledge that it can hold the world to ransom whenever it fancies and use safe passage as a cash cow.
The whole thing is one almighty self-defeating cluster-****!! Which is hardly surprising when you look at the morons responsible for organizing it.
The only real winner out of all this is still busy doing what he does best.... killing kids while bombing hospitals in Lebanon
I think China will try and get a ship through. They will call trumps bluff knowing that any us action against an unescorted ship will only increase pressure on trump
but lets not kid ourselves that the US isn't more destructive and powerful by orders of magnitude.
Nobody is kidding themselves. That's been patently true from the outset. The status quo is that it doesnt seem to matter. USA is not going to carpet bomb / nuke Tehran and all the other cites, they dont have the will to bear the political costs. Being able to take out all the miliary things doesnt matter when you can functionally close the straight to commerical traffic with $100 of gubbins from ali express and a hand grenade. The regime has nothing to lose, I dont see the incentive for them to tap out.
While that all may be the case, can you see the US having gained anything by the time this is nominally 'over'?
Nope they 'gained' absolutely zero. But now, Iran has more to loose
, I dont see the incentive for them to tap out.
because they are just a moderately important export partner to some states in south Asia, not a superpower, and that's the end of that. They were sort of a regional power at best, but not a very powerful one, and currently they're not even that, and they have plenty of neighbors who'd take advantage of that. They're not going to be allowed to hold the straights hostage, and they have a population that's barely under control, and because China; the biggest export market for the only thing they can sell (illegally under sanction) will tell them to.
Trump hasn't won anything, but Iran have lost more.
They're not going to be allowed to hold the straights hostage
They seem to have been doing more than a passable impression of it for the last few weeks fella.
They've proved they can do it easily. Simply the very threat of destroying a tanker and no tanker can then get insurance to sail, so they're going nowhere. Simple as that. Technically they haven't closed the straits, Lloyds of London have.
but Iran have lost more
The Iranian people may have done, the regime seems to be stronger than ever. Its goes without saying that the regime couldn't give a flying **** about the population
This ex-merchant Navy, now Merchant Navy Instructor has phoned into James O'Brien a couple of times and knows his onions. It's not Oil we should be worried about, it's the Helium.
https://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mjgs4txlnm2r
Hopefully the captain of the ship carrying the Helium will have a great big huff on it before declaring his intention to run the blockade.
Being able to take out all the miliary things doesnt matter when you can functionally close the straight to commerical traffic with $100 of gubbins from ali express and a hand grenade.
Having the 82nd Airborne and a Marine EU occupy your most strategically important island is going to be just a difficult for the Iranians to re-occupy as it is for the US to hold. See Ukraine and Russia experience in Donbas and Luhansk. Iran cannot have that happen under any circumstances, closed straights or no.
Having the 82nd Airborne and a Marine EU occupy your most strategically important island is going to be just a difficult for the Iranians to re-occupy as it is for the US to hold.
I don't doubt they'd prefer it not happen. But if it does they'll be able to harvest GI's with drones, wont play well at home. Looks like another bruise to punch to me. Iran lives there. They have time.
(hope you are right tho!)
The only real winner out of all this is still busy doing what he does best.... killing kids while bombing hospitals in Lebanon
The real winners are Russia and probably China.
Israel its definitely a tactical success but its unclear if it is going to be a long term one. They have burned through a lot of goodwill from various countries and even in the US public opinion is shifting heavily.
Technically they haven't closed the straits, Lloyds of London have.
Lloyds are happy to insure its just they have adjusted the premium accordingly. Although this might now have changed with the US blockade.
Trump hasn't won anything, but Iran have lost more.
The situation here though is that neither leader cares about the people they lead, or any of the other people in the world.
But if it does they'll be able to harvest GI's with drones
I don't doubt the ability of Iran to throw drones at it, I equally don't doubt the American's ability to hold it.
Israel its definitely a tactical success but its unclear if it is going to be a long term one.
Agreed, I think some regional authoritarian states will rebuild relationships pretty rapidly (Saudi and Egypt), but Italy have already binned a rolling military deal they had with Israel, won't be the last.
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
Mr Google tells me that China produces 4.3 million barrels per day and consumes 16 million barrels per day. That's a deficit of 11.7 million barrels per day. So if they continue consuming at the same rate their 1.4 billion stocks will last approx 120 days.
Israel its definitely a tactical success but its unclear if it is going to be a long term one
Fertile ground from where the next generation of Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists will come from?
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
Mr Google tells me that China produces 4.3 million barrels per day and consumes 16 million barrels per day. That's a deficit of 11.7 million barrels per day. So if they continue consuming at the same rate their 1.4 billion stocks will last approx 120 days.
But only about 40% is from the gulf, so more like 280 days, assuming they don't increase supply from elsewhere, reduce demand, or get access to some of the gulf fuel via the Red Sea. The COST of oil might be an issue but they do not have an overnight supply issue. The rest of Asia may be a lot less prepared.
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
Mr Google tells me that China produces 4.3 million barrels per day and consumes 16 million barrels per day. That's a deficit of 11.7 million barrels per day. So if they continue consuming at the same rate their 1.4 billion stocks will last approx 120 days.
They won't have anything like that deficit as many of their other imports are still flowing. Still receiving oil from:
Saudi - Red Sea pipeline exports
Iran - Sanctioned tankers
UAE - Pipeline to Gulf of Oman coastline
Oman
Maybe down 20% or so of their normal imports, Should be able to hang on for a couple of years.
I'm sure Vlad can step up his shipments to fill the gap if needed in the longer term.
But only about 40% is from the gulf, so more like 280 days
OK.
this is something youd expect to see from a russian ship