France and Italy
The two European nations are understood to have requested talks with Iran about allowing their ships to pass through the strait, the UK’s Financial Times has reported, citing unnamed officials.
And realistically that's how this actually ends. A diplomatic settlement with Iran, where they agree to re-open the Strait.
Trump rolled the dice on regime change and it came up snake eyes. A dictatorship facing an existential threat is always going to be willing to absorb more physical and political punishment than a "democracy" even one with an idiot in charge.
And Iran isn't fully backed into a corner yet, they've still got means of escalating it further. Mass attacks on oil, gas and de-salination infrastructure would cripple the entire Gulf region. The US taking Kharg island and strangling Iran's oil exports would probably lead to such an escalation.
And realistically that's how this actually ends. A diplomatic settlement with Iran, where they agree to re-open the Strait.
All the while Israel is assassinating people like Larijani who are the establishment figures who negotiations would be with. They are removing the possibility of diplomatic negotiations to sabotage any off ramp.
They are removing the possibility of diplomatic negotiations to sabotage any off ramp.
I don't think the current Israeli leadership are particularly interested in giving Iran an "off ramp" I think they think they can inflict sufficient damage on them to stop them being a destabilizing presence in the region for the foreseeable, and TBH, I think Iran's regional neighbours are pretty much content for them to carry on.
I don't think the current Israeli leadership are particularly interested in giving Iran an "off ramp" I think they think they can inflict sufficient damage on them to stop them being a destabilizing presence in the region for the foreseeable, and TBH, I think Iran's regional neighbours are pretty much content for them to carry on.
Unlike the US, Israel actually has achievable goals. They too would probably liked to have ended up with a friendlier regime in Iran, but they probably recognised it was a long shot. So massively degrading Iran's military while using the war as cover to go after and seize territory from Iran's proxies is a good outcome for them.
I think you're spot on. The US and Israel aligned on "regime change" but Israel had a second place option - degradation, which the US has not. Trump is very zero-sum transactional, having the regime still in power - is a 'win' for them and [as far as he sees it] a losing position for Trump.
And Iran isn't fully backed into a corner yet, they've still got means of escalating it further. Mass attacks on oil, gas and de-salination infrastructure would cripple the entire Gulf region. The US taking Kharg island and strangling Iran's oil exports would probably lead to such an escalation.
There were stories from the second Gulf War of US armour rolling into Iraq and going straight past all the museums and historic sites (which were being vandalised, looted etc) and straight to the oil depots. No interest in restoring law and order, just "get to the oil!"
I'm not sure that taking Kharg Island will achieve anything if tankers can't get in and out.
Asia taking the brunt of the economic impact of this war.
The two European nations are understood to have requested talks with Iran about allowing their ships to pass through the strait, the UK’s Financial Times has reported, citing unnamed officials.
And this is surely the way this plays out from now on. It's like Canada doing a deal with China for importing EV's instead of American ones and Argentina courting China to supply all the Soya the Americans used to, pre-Donalds-mad-tariffs.
One by one every country is going to hit the tipping point (we're probably there already) where they say "**** America!" and start making alliances that would have been inconceivable just a few years ago. Because there's simply no advantage to be had by dealing with a transactional, zero-sum half-wit who changes his mind like he changes his underwear and demands subjugation as the price of doing business. It's just not worth the trouble.
Way to go Donald. Make America Great Again appears to be making it irrelevant instead
and start making alliances that would have been inconceivable just a few years ago.
the problem with this is though is the sort of thing that European countries especially induldged in the decades running up to WW1. Dual Alliance - Germany and Austria, Franco-Russia in 1894, Entente Cordiale, Anglo-Russia and Treaty of London (the one that protected Belgium)
Interstate alliances have a habit of drawing other states into opposing alliances...
Thanks Donald, Thanks Brexit, it's been a blast.
There were stories from the second Gulf War of US armour rolling into Iraq and going straight past all the museums and historic sites (which were being vandalised, looted etc) and straight to the oil depots. No interest in restoring law and order, just "get to the oil!"
You should watch Generation Kill. HBO miniseries based on an embedded journalist's account.
Or Jarhead (for the same conflict/reason)
I'm not sure that taking Kharg Island will achieve anything if tankers can't get in and out.
Surely, in order to take the island, they need to get the amphibious assault ships through the straits first. If the Millennium Challenge war game was anything like accurate, that fleet will be annihilated if they try it.
The only invasion option is presumably to land on the coast east of the straits and make their way on land. However, that's tough terrain, one main road east/west. They'd be massively outnumbered by a force with local advantage. I can't see it being anything but a disaster.
Asia taking the brunt of the economic impact of this war.
At the moment...that cheap stuff we all like so much is going to be less cheap imminently.
Now the psychopaths are bombing offshore gas fields. What could possibly go wrong?
Interesting article here, seems the US have struck a huge deal with Asia to help ease the burden.
Trump saves the planet again - get him a Nobel prizeAsia taking the brunt of the economic impact of this war.
At the moment...that cheap stuff we all like so much is going to be less cheap imminently.
I think a few folk here work, or have worked, offshore. Safety is always a big part of the job and the memory of Piper Alpha never far away. I can't imagine the horror of being there while homicidal lunatics in warplanes are actively trying to kill you.
It's all getting silly now. The Beeb drawing Trumps misshapen willy, red raw, after it fails to penetrate Iran decisively.
Just saw this as a comment on the Whitehouse FB page 😂
What's the difference between Iran and Vietnam?
..
Trump knew how to get out of Vietnam.
Just saw this as a comment on the Whitehouse FB page 😂
What's the difference between Iran and Vietnam?
..
Trump knew how to get out of Vietnam.
Lol, that is very good.
Now the psychopaths are bombing offshore gas fields. What could possibly go wrong?
Lol, in this conflict that statement could apply to any of the 3 combatants! Gonna need to narrow it down a bit...
Anybody read the Alex Scarrow books 'Last Light' and 'Afterlight'?
Re: South Pars gas field
I've just looked at the NASA FIRMS website.
Some fires in the general area of the Persian Gulf International Airport and further along the coast towards Siraf.
Nothing obvious in the gas field
Anybody read the Alex Scarrow books 'Last Light' and 'Afterlight'?
No I haven't but just looked them up. I'll be getting them. Thanks. 👍
Apologies for going OT.
From the Beeb.
Unintended consequences indeed!
A little earlier the White House said it is loosening a law designed to boost US shipbuilding, as it tries to shield the US from spiking oil prices.
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration would suspend the Jones Act - a 1920 law that requires American-made ships be used to transport goods between US ports – for 60 days.
She said the waiver would allow "vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertiliser, and coal to flow freely".
It’s a striking decision given the Trump administration’s previous focus on reviving shipbuilding – even considering new fees on foreign-made ships – and a sign of just how much pressure the White House is under to show it is responsive to rising prices at the pump.
How much difference it will actually make is unclear. Maritime groups upset about the move say the effect will be minimal, noting that oil prices, not shipping costs, are behind the price spike.
iran launching a lot of missiles tonight at Tel Aviv and Bahrain & saudi
its nuts that they still have the capacity after nearly 3 weeks of continuous bombing by israel/US
President DJT's Five Phases of Warfare.
The Americans are on thier own in this, as far as I'm concerned... they have no plan, and no end game and expect us in Europe to flock to them after the trade war and threats of a hostile takeover of Greenland...
How on earth can they expect any help after the constant insults? To even have the audacity to ask for help now, is a massive insult in itself.
at this point the quickest way to end the war would be for the rest of the world to dump US treasuries, ensuring a quicker victory for Iran
I think that, at this point in his delusion, dumping US bonds at a national scale would get you 1000000% tariffs and an invasion.
I'd also question who other than China would want to buy them. They already own a large chunk of the US debt, so anything more would be for the LOLZ. Maybe Putin could, ot Lil' Kim.
I think that there has already been some quiet quitting of US bonds, but while countries might hold dollar reserves to enable trade in dollars, I think most are owned by institutions rather than governments, ie pensions. All those who were in a panic when they took a small bump in the value of their over inflated pension gains last year when Trump started the trade wars, or when Truss had her moment, would go into meltdown by the impact it would have.
The EU starting a "euro" oil trade could be a better long term plan, chipping away at the dollars dominance without causing the same level of damage as dumping bonds. If there is a rough idea of a plan from team Trump, it does look like they could be trying to take a stranglehold on oil supply, so the rest of the world should look at preparing against that.
Oh, look who’s stepping in to offer an alternative supply of gas to the Middle East….
Who'd have thunk it? He seems to be doing very, very well indeed out of all this chaos. But Trump definitely isn't a Russian Asset
Oh, look who’s stepping in to offer an alternative supply of gas to the Middle East….
Who'd have thunk it? He seems to be doing very, very well indeed out of all this chaos. But Trump definitely isn't a Russian Asset
I'm starting to think Trump isn't technically a Russian asset.. I think he's just genuinley this pig-headed and dumb, but he's not used to hearing the word "no". Especially when it comes to under age girls.
I've gotta hand it to him, this is one a hell of a distraction from the Epstein files.
Tulsi Gabbard threw Trump under the bus in a congressional hearing yesterday. Basically:
Senator: your intelligence departments role is to deliver non-partisan advice yes?
TG: Yes
S: last year you stated that Iran's nuclear weapons capability was obliterated by US strikes?
TG: yes
S: did you have evidence on March 1st that Iran's nuclear capability was an imminent threat?
TG: no
S: but the president said it was in his statement on March 1st
TG: only the president can decide if there is an imminent threat
Will make no difference, but her alibi/exit strategy was plain to see
I guess it could be read like that, but I heard it more of "If the president decides they are an imminent threat then they are an imminent threat. Kind of like Dick Cheney's statement on waterboarding terrorists which was something like "we only waterboard terrorists, so if we are waterboarding them they must be terrorists".
Tulsi Gabbard is the one with links to Russia's intelligence services, right?
I also remembered thinking that Gabbards positions seemed quite reasonable when she was in the Democratic primaries in 2020, just found her campaign site for then, she has done an about turn of just about every principle she claimed to have.
https://www.tulsi2020.com/about
a few highlights
Regime change wars are wasteful and have drained our country of trillions of dollars, undermined our national security, and cost the lives of thousands of our men and women in uniform. I will bring an end to this failed foreign policy and withdraw America from ongoing conflict that achieves nothing and wastes so much.
I’m concerned that our civil liberties are under attack. Our right to privacy, guaranteed by the 4th Amendment, is threatened by overreaching intelligence agencies and big tech monopolies that falsely invoke national security interests to take away our civil liberties. Our right to free speech is jeopardized by the ever-increasing power of mainstream media corporations.
Our criminal justice system is not just and allows wealthy crooks to profiteer whilst poor criminal go to jail. This can no longer stand and I will ensure fairness and the same rule of law for all, so we have a criminal justice system that finally works the same for everyone.
We can and must begin to build a renewable energy economy. By redirecting the billions spent every year subsidizing the fossil fuel industry to instead invest in the industries of the future — expanding wind, solar, and geothermal — we will guarantee a cleaner, safer energy future and create high-quality jobs.
I was just looking at the FTSE 100 graph and saw another sharp drop, checked the news to see what had happened - oh, Hegseth has been speaking, that'll do it.
A great cartoon in today’s Times
Isn't it Boomer? But yeh point taken
I also remembered thinking that Gabbards positions seemed quite reasonable when she was in the Democratic primaries in 2020, just found her campaign site for then, she has done an about turn of just about every principle she claimed to have.
Hell of a switch in positions!
