Forum menu
Surely threatening to take control of the refineries hints at being more interested in the oil in/around and under Las Malvinas than ever, no?
Surely threatening to take control of the refineries hints at being more interested in the oil in/around and under [s]Las Malvinas[/s] [b]The Falkland Islands[/b] than ever, no?
FIFY 😛
Jeesus H the rubbery-face cow really is now going drive away foreign business partners/investment isn't she.
Well, Argentina is a regional power on the up. Why shouldn't the Argentinian leader act in the national interest?
I have my own opinions on The Falklands, but I suspect cooler heads over there realise there's room to negotiate once we've got over the mutual sabre rattling rhetoric.
Jeesus H the rubbery-face cow really is now going drive away foreign business partners/investment isn't she.
the diplomatic cores loss is our gain
Well, Argentina is a regional power on the up.
They most certainly are not. They're in very deep water, which is the reason they're snatching foreign owned assets. It's pure desperation, they would not dare to otherwise.
there's room to negotiate
They will have to change the Argentinian constitution first.
The Argentinian government is up to some very odd things at the moment like fiddling the national inflation statistics. All dodgy.
Well, Argentina is a regional power on the up. Why shouldn't the Argentinian leader act in the national interest?
Perhaps. But the legality of her actions are very questionable & any would-be investor in Argentina will now be thinking twice.
It seems a very short-sighted action.
When you're desperately clutching at straws to cling to power, anyone's fair game. Expect her to declare the moon an Argentine colonial outpost by this time next week
JY does the diplomatic corps lie at the heart/core of the diplomatic service? 😉
damn you and your public school boy education 😉
and of course 😳
Sorry JY - it just made me giggle!! The joke and the spelling, otherwise I wouldn't have said anything.
The Argentinian government is up to some very odd things at the moment like fiddling the national inflation statistics.
Well, they wouldn't be the only government to have allowed that to happen in the last twenty years would they?
🙂
Yes but when you issue inflation-linked bonds and then fiddle the stats that's basic theft. But as you say, they wouldn't be the only....
its ok most folks would just assume it was my piss poor typing but I am happy to accept an error, on my part, for that one.
I know it is not the STW way but hey lets see if it catches on.
Is her government bancrupt? Seems to be trying to nationalise anything that looks like money, first all pensions now the oil industry.
It's almost Orwellian what they are doing with the inflation stats. They are rounding them down to whole numbers, which doesn't sound too dramatic, but cumulatively over a year the official inflation rate (linked to government pay deals, bonds etc...) is half the best inflation estimate. It's a bit more dramatic than other governments.
JY - not a chance of that, sadly!!
(p.s. when did I ever mention my type of school? The only thing I will say about that was that, actually it was so good, it was "approved" ! (for those of us of a certain age!!) ) 😉
Ernie's the expert on Argentina and on her economics and politics, he will be along soon to give the "correct" answer.
Bump for Ernie 🙂
I am guessing that a previous government sold of state assets cheap and now they want them back witout paying over the odds
Shame we can't (re)nationalise a few things in the UK - water would be a good place to start...
Expect her to declare the moon an Argentine colonial outpost by this time next week
But Argentina doesn't indulge in colonialist actions, unlike us nasty Brits!
Reckon this could be a very important event, huge amounts of Repsol are held by spanish banks which are already massively leveraged. Assuming that Repsol is told to f-off by Kirchner, Spanish banks would have to mark down their Repsol assets massively, which would almost certainly put one or two of them into insolvency.
Cue panic, flight to safety, further insolvencies and EU/IMF bailout of Spain.
Spain will be sending a flotilla of warships to defend oil platforms in the South Atlantic, No?
Choron- as the FT summarised today - Argentina loses, YPF loses and Repsol loses - its enough to make you cry!
But then again, if you force you major domestic oil company to import refined oil products and gas and then sell them at a loss to keep the punters happy, you will be alright in the end, no?
This should be interesting as the South Americans are flexing their muscles now knowing their old master is getting rather frail ... 🙄
Most Spanish Banks are already insolvent and are relying on ECB funding, don't think this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back but that will be along shortly one way or another.
When you're desperately clutching at straws to cling to power, anyone's fair game. Expect her to declare the moon an Argentine colonial outpost by this time next week
😀
She just got re-elected less than six months ago with more than [u]3 times[/u] the votes of her nearest rival - the Socialist Party candidate. Which I believe possibly makes it the greatest victory in a presidential election in Argentine history - British politicians can only dream of that level of support. She can't stand again.......[i]"desperately clutching at straws to cling to power"[/i] !
So the Conservative government of Spain doesn't like the fact that Argentina is nationalising its own natural resources, instead of leaving them in the hands of foreign privately owned companies ?.......how shocking !!!
ernie_lynch - MemberShe just got re-elected less than six months ago with more than 3 times the votes of her nearest rival - the Socialist Party candidate.
hhmmm ... the voters are rather emotional lot I suspect ... 🙄
You know ... passionate, animated, hysterical ... ma ma mia ... unlike the voters here who are born into voting a particular party forever ...
While CFK may be massively popular with the people of Argentina due to her populist policies the long term outcomes of this will be very bad news for Argentina.
It's tragic that a country with so much to offer is run so badly.
Really? Owning its own natural resources bad for the country?
It's tragic that a country with so much to offer is run so badly.
You're still talking about Argentina, right?
Of course, Spain will fight hammer and tongs as they don't have any oil of their own. Not good for Spain.
Right, that's it, I'm getting the kids to boycott watching Total Wipeout as a protest.....
I wonder whether the president will start crying about "Spanish economic neo-imperialists". No thought not, only us British as imperialists. The racist.
So the Conservative government of Spain doesn't like the fact that Argentina is nationalising its own natural resources, instead of leaving them in the hands of foreign privately owned companies ?.......how shocking !!!
Actually, she was threatening to do it when the Socialists were in power last year, too. She only put it off when Spain announced restrictions on biofuel imports, which funnily enough would have a serious impact on a fair number of those voters that favoured her in the last election... I'm guessing that law will now be put into action.
Funnily enough, the majority Argentian shareholder in YPF (whose stake isn't being nationalised) is a close friend of the Kirchners.
Looking at the blowout in repsol and Argentine CDS today this could be brutal. Combine this with the recent selloff in Spanish bonds over the last week and the implications on the oil and gas and we may see a significant slide on the markets.
I would love to know how ugly the derivative counterparty risk looks, but as everything is done OTC we have no idea. While I don't think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back, this makes things tangibly worse. We are also getting closer to a point where the Spanish government will have to explicitly state their - thus far - implicit guarantee of their banks liabilities. If this happens, Spanish sovereign debt goes from 70 to 160 percent of gdp, and Spain starts to look a lot like Greece.
Choron , thats a great insight, and sounds like a real risk.
HOWEVER....the important question to answer is should I buy Argentinian red wine? Am I supporting a corrupt decaying country by doing so, or showing solidarity with the producers.
For now I will stick to chilean pinotage until we can get a STW agreement on Argie plonk.
the important question to answer is should I buy Argentinian red wine?
The answer to your question is yes - if you want to help European car manufacturers.
Argentina does things differently and sees trade as a two way traffic, so for example if a European company wants to import something then they have to export something else. Which has led to a situation whereby a company such as Mercedes-Benz needs to export Argentine wine in order to be able to import their vehicles into Argentina. So buy Argentine wine if you want to help German car manufacturers, otherwise the choice is simply down to you.
BTW protectionism is a central feature of Peronism, and Cristina Kirchner is very much a Peronist. For the record I'm not personally a Peronist, far from it - I'm actually very hostile to Peronism, but I am a very strong supporter of Cristina Kirchner. Which I know all sounds very contradictory but it stems from a realistic and pragmatic commitment to the greater good.
HAH!
So is that why Aldi (german supermarket) has nice Argentinian wine for super bargain prices? Its to support Mercedes and VW exporting to their country! Well you learn something every day. Doesn't harm me if Germany exports to South America...so on with the plonk.
So is that why Aldi (german supermarket) has nice Argentinian wine for super bargain prices?
Very likely imo.
[url= http://investba.com/2011/03/porsche-argentina-carreras-cayennes/ ]Porsche Argentina Will Trade Carreras and Cayennes for Cabernet Franc[/url]
Argentina may well have huge reserves of hydrocarbons but to get at them requires billions of dollars of investment year after year, money the Argentine state just doesnt have and can't borrow. Quite apart from being illegal, grabbing a private asset is utter madness. Singapore has been a success because foreign investors in Asia know that if they set themselves up there they will enjoy the full protection of an efficient and impartial legal system. Kirchner is making Argentina look like a place to avoid and it is the population that will suffer.
......it is the population that will suffer.
It's an interesting fact that opposition to the Kirchners has always focused almost solely on predictions. Ever since Nestor and Cristina Kirchner dramatically changed the economic policies of Argentina their opponents, at home and abroad, have predicted dire consequences.
You would think that after 10 years of Kirchner presidency their opponents, who incidentally totally screwed the Argentine economy, would start focusing on criticising the Kirchner's record as presidents, after all, ten years is a very long time - specially in politics.
It is this Kirchner presidency record which the Argentine electorate focuses on, and not least in reference to previous presidencies which followed very different economic policies. And it is this past record which explains why Cristina Kirchner was the first choice of the majority of voters less than 6 months ago. A quite remarkable feat in a crises-ridden world where economic turmoil has led to incumbent rulers being comprehensively rejected by their electorates, and so few people have any faith in their governments.
In the case of Argentina it's not a discredited economic model - that's already been rejected, but one which after 10 years now receives substantial credit from ordinary Argentines. So those who despise Cristina Kirchner for changing the economic balances are reduced to simply predicting dire consequences - as they always have.
a realistic and pragmatic commitment to the greater good
Has Argentina not seen the introduction of radical policies that stressed the importance of the greater good before Ernie?
[img] 
[/img]
Eh ? What are you on about Zulu-Eleven ?
Why have you posted a collage of aging passport photos after asking me a completely pointless and inane question ?
Or is this as I suspect yet another example of you not really knowing why you posted something ?
Seriously fella, you can be really bizarre sometimes when you can't think of anything constructive to say 😕