and yet you appear to believe that Jacques Baud is?
Do I? I repeatedly said that he makes "claims", read my post. It is up to you whether you dismiss the claims or not.
Personally I don't believe the Israeli and US claims that the Iranian attack was a complete failure, although obviously they would say that wouldn't they.
Israel actually admits that its two strategically important air bases were hit by "9" ballistic missiles. It is reasonable to assume that the Israelis are not being completely truthful.
And although no independent reporters have been invited to inspect I have seen a photo of one of the craters caused by an Iranian ballistic missile, it is huge.
Obviously they just hit empty storage facilities because top military air bases always have lots of "empty storage facilities", but how come the Iranians managed to do that if the attack was a complete failure as the Israelis, US, and UK, governments claim? Why can't the Israeli defend their air bases which contain extremely expensive and vital hardware?
And the costs which Col Baud refers to are known - the cost of both the Iranian drones and the Israeli air defence missiles, it is widely accepted that the cost to Israel was huge and the cost to Iran relatively small.
Edit: Btw since you make the comparison does Col Baud do something similar to murdering people and chopping up their bodies? Is that why his claims should be dismissed?
Hamas should not be let off the hook with insinuations and suggestions that they are part of some Israeli plot.
It is not letting Hamas off the hook by pointing out that Israel helped to create and fund Hamas. Although the Israelis very obviously did not expect Hamas to pose a serious threat to them.
It is a fact that the United States helped to fund, arm, and trained, Osama bin Laden and his supporters. It doesn't however let Osama bin Laden off the hook for 9/11
Western governments do stupid things which have devastating consequences. There is really no point trying to sweep it under the carpet and pretending that they don't.
Western governments do stupid things which have devastating consequences. There is really no point trying to sweep it under the carpet and pretending that they don’t.
Well said
Now is a good time to invest in the arms trade… business is always good, but with recent developments, it should soon be even better!!
Does anyone have a reasonable explanation of how the October incursion by Hamas into Israel was executed with virtually no initial resistance?
I think the best answer is surprise and weight of numbers by the attackers and arrogance and carelessness by the Israelis.
Does anyone have a reasonable explanation of how the October incursion by Hamas into Israel was executed with virtually no initial resistance?
complacency and incompetence
Does anyone have a reasonable explanation of how the October incursion by Hamas into Israel was executed with virtually no initial resistance?
Complacency/hubris played a large part but Oct 7th was also the morning after the last day of Sukkot, a week long religious observance/holiday. Most soldiers were at home with their families.
Personally I don’t believe the Israeli and US claims that the Iranian attack was a complete failure, although obviously they would say that wouldn’t they.
It was a success in some ways, but a failure in others, which is a separate topic.
I think the point is that the escalation must stop because all that's happening is that everyone (governments, media, public, etc.) is focused on the Iran-Israel exchange and possible escalation, with all of the consequences that brings
Before Iran's attack the US and others were moving away from supporting Israel and the US had also abstained from, rather than vetoed, a UN vote for a ceasefire
We're no longer focused on the dire situation for Palestinians and their lack of aid, while Israel's allies once again coalesce to support Israel. Escalation is the worse thing, unless you are Benjamin Netanyahu, who is feeling a reduction in pressure
I hope to be proved wrong
There is some quite strong evidence that there were warnings that Hamas were about to plan something fairly big, the lack of preparation by the Israelis is probably, as mentioned, a combination of complacency and incompetence and arrogance, and the not totally unreasonable lack of expectation that Hamas could execute such a devastating strike - they had never previously carried out any attack which was in anyway remotely comparable.
And it is also likely that Netanyahu thought any action by Hamas would not only be ineffectual but would also give him a good excuse to carry out military operations in Gaza, something which the IDF had done on half dozen occasions in the previous 20 years.
We’re no longer focused on the dire situation for Palestinians and their lack of aid, while Israel’s allies once again coalesce to support Israel. Escalation is the worse thing, unless you are Benjamin Netanyahu, who is feeling a reduction in pressure
That is the Socialist Workers position which it is trying to push on the pro Palestinian movement - that the Iranian attack was a win for Netanyahu.
I don't agree, I think their assessment is coloured by their strongly anti Iranian stance. The Iranians proved firstly that they are prepared to strike directly at Israel, secondly that if correctly planned their ballistic missiles can penetrate Israel's air defences, thirdly that they can hit specific targets, and fourthly this is still possible even with several other very powerful countries giving the Israelis vital help and support.
The 170 cheap one-way drones which overwhelmed Israeli air defences were nothing, Iran undoubtedly has thousands of them, and they certainly have plenty of ballistic missiles which are seen hitting their target one after the other.
For those reasons despite pledging to respond I very much doubt that Israel will strike directly at Iran again, and any strikes they carry out will be against Hezbollah, with which they are already engaging on a daily basis.
"Israel didn’t fund Hamas, but they did allow funds to reach Hamas, which is a subtle but important difference."
It's also a difference that's explicitly detailed in the various sources cited above by the people claiming that "Israel funded Hamas"!
Dyna-ti: more like 70 years old. At the time, of course, the Soviet Union was spending double what the US was on the military as a proportion of GDP, it was occupying the other half of Europe, and was engaged in genocide and transportation of entire national populations within its borders: the Chechens, the Koreans, the Volga Germans, the Jews. (And was wildly anti-Semitic, to bring us full circle).
https://www.lambiek.net/artists/g/ganf_yuliy.htm
For those reasons despite pledging to respond I very much doubt that Israel will strike directly at Iran again, and any strikes they carry out will be against Hezbollah, with which they are already engaging on a daily basis.
Not forgetting the ongoing Israeli strategy of intercepting aid convoys sent in to alleviate the situation Israel's policy has created in Gaza
The intercept article also doesn't point out that the strategy is failing miserably :
"After narrowly backing Israel’s military action in Gaza in November, Americans now oppose the campaign by a solid margin. Fifty-five percent currently disapprove of Israel’s actions, while 36% approve."
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx
36% support for Israeli military action in Gaza is an astonishingly low figure from the United States public, especially when you consider the level of anti-Hamas and anti-Muslim rhetoric they are exposed to on a daily basis.
Does anyone have a reasonable explanation of how the October incursion by Hamas into Israel was executed with virtually no initial resistance?
Complacency/hubris played a large part but Oct 7th was also the morning after the last day of Sukkot, a week long religious observance/holiday. Most soldiers were at home with their families.
Posted 5 hours ago
The Times of Israel reported that two Commando Divisions of troops were removed from the border days before the attack, and the Lookout towers manned by the female Troops were reporting that there was increased activity around the border fence for weeks leading up to the attack but were ignored.
Times Of Israel - Removal of Troops days before Oct 7th attack
Another Times of Israel report that I finally found in my reading list
For years Netanyahu propped up Hamas - Now its blown up in our face
@somafunk article about withdrawal of troops reads to me like journalists really fishing for a story. I think it's trying to post-facto link routine (re)deployments with - if not outright dereliction, then something close to it when it looks like just co-incidence. That the top brass were briefed about possible incursions and that intelligence didn't reach the operational level comes as zero surprise to me.
I will say though the levels of really interesting stuff (articles, you tubes, blogs and substacks) from all sorts of sources that folks on the thread have bought to the table have genuinely had an influence on my thinking about this conflict.
Thanks all.
it was more to highlight the fact that the Israeli government/IDF redeployed the units to back up and provide cover for the settlers in the West Bank, it was a rather unusual move to redeploy the border troops as there were a number of reports filed from the troops themselves that there was increased activity around the area and the unit commander was uneasy at the redeployment, I’ll have a hunt through my reading list and find the article
Latest UN report on the situation in Gaza has just been published, a long but detailed and sobering 48 page report on what is urgently needed.
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report on Gaza
I have absolutely no issues with that, as long as Netanyahu does not expect the bigger boys to back him up in his schoolyard fight
…reads to me like journalists really fishing for a story
The same looks true of the ‘Hamas is Israel’s “creation”’ article.
The thrust of it seems to be that Israel didn’t crack down on Hamas’ founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, and Islamists in general, in the late 70s.
But in the 70s Yassin was running a charity proving things like medical care and youth clubs and didn’t form Hamas until the late 80s. As the article acknowledges later, there was no reason to go after someone who at the time was ‘100% peaceful towards Israel.’
The article just doesn’t support the headline.
didn’t form Hamas until the late 80s
Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was arrested in 1984 and sentenced to 13 years imprisonment for illegal possession of arms, the establishment of a military organization and calling for the annihilation of Israel.
As the article acknowledges later, there was no reason to go after someone who at the time was ‘100% peaceful towards Israel.’
So why on earth are you disputing that Israel helped the rise of Hamas then?
When the United States armed Osama bin Laden and the CIA established his training camps they had no reason to believe that he would eventually turn against them**
Does this prove that the United States did not help Osama bin Laden??
Western strategies (obviously I include Israel) of the last 40 years in the Middle East have generally backfired. Which suggests that huge blunders have been made!
** Actually if they had looked beyond short-term gain all the evidence was actually there. Greed and immediate gain is what drives the United States/West. Look also at the sub-prime crisis for an insight into that typical mindset and how ringing bells are ignored.
"The thrust of it seems to be that Israel didn’t crack down on Hamas’ founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, and Islamists in general, in the late 70s"
No, I think that is too much of a stretch. It's clear that Israel pursued a short time, divide and conquer approach where they were happy to see Hamas grow in influence and challenge Fatah in the earlier years.
It's also clear that Israel tried an approach of "once they have the boring burdens of being in government, they'll be more restrained" with Hamas, and allowed them to be funded by Qatar with the approval of Hamas leaders in Doha. Hamas spending years spending those funds on weapons and tunnels instead of social welfare, and the pursuit of an apocalyptic "bring it on" military strategy against Israel, seems to have come as a surprise to Israel, Hamas's formal leadership and Qatar alike.
Meanwhile - weird to see Saudi complaining that Iran is precipitating all this because they want to frustrate Saudi-Israel normalisation. You wouldn't have expected to hear that 15 years ago!
Engagement through back channels, and allowing other states to support them in non-military ways, is how governments attempt to deal with groups with both political and terrorist intentions, in the hope that they then favour the political in a peaceful process. Israel did not “create” Hamas, it had to deal with it. There are parallels in all attempts (successful or otherwise) to deal with terrorism through peaceful means. The alternative is going after them militarily, and the senseless deaths that come along with that. Something that needs avoiding (as the last six months make all to clear).
Reassuring to know governments are so warm and cuddly...
On that basis, I'm happy to forget the long history of covert arms supply to some very iffy causes, invasion and attrocities committed by Israel's main supporters!
At this rate, perhaps we could come to appreciate the positive benefits brought to society by apartheid and Israel's secret nuclear weapons programme, not to mention Israel's brave stance on keeping do-gooders at bay:
Israel is not party to:
The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
Biological & Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC)
Intl Criminal Court (ICC)
Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM)
Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
But despite being a heavily armed colonial apartheid nation who continue to violently remove families from their homeland they are thankfully a democracy, promoting freedom
So why on earth are you disputing that Israel helped the rise of Hamas then?
I’m disputing the far-fetched claim that ‘Hamas is Israel’s “creation”’, which isn’t borne out by the article.
Here’s part of the section you quoted:
“Israel cooperated with a crippled, half-blind cleric named Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, even as he was laying the foundations for what would become Hamas.”
As you say, Israel imprisoned Yassin in 1984 when he was found with weapons (still before he founded Hamas) so they clearly weren’t cooperating with him then. What the article is talking about is before then, when Yassin was running a charity recognised by Israel.
Not arresting people running charities is a good thing, right? It hardly implies responsibility for creating what Yassin went on to do a decade later after he was released from prison.
To PCMA’s point
“It’s clear that Israel pursued a short time, divide and conquer approach…”
More like this, rather than claims of creating or funding them. There’s enough to discuss without inventing things.
Meanwhile – weird to see Saudi complaining that Iran is precipitating all this because they want to frustrate Saudi-Israel normalisation. You wouldn’t have expected to hear that 15 years ago!
Truly!
So when it comes to Israel funding Hamas, we're clear that Israel never funded Hamas then...
OK, got it
https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619
Netanyahu will say and do anything to stay in power.
The record clearly shows that.
His 'loyalty' is to himself - not Israel, not middle Eastern peace; he is egotistical and power mad.
Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy"
Seen that quote from Weitz many times, but it has no named source and no other journalist has confirmed or second sourced it.
Look Israel let money into Gaza, that went to Hamas as the defacto administration there since the 2006 elections. Arguably Israel shouldn’t have recognised Hamas as being legimate, based on their narrow win and their behaviour since (towards other Palestinians, not just Israelis). That doesn’t mean what you claim it means. And it isn’t a mistake any Israeli government will make again, which is why any future peace that includes Hamas controlling Gaza again looks like a moonshot.
Cast your minds back to before those 2006 elections though, Israel and the USA were doing everything they could to bolster Fatah’s chances, and restrict the reach of Hamas candidates. It is a very selective reading of the past to suggest that the success of Hamas politically was engineered or desired by the Israeli authorities. But in the years since they have had to deal with Hamas. That is likely over though, and the future for the people of Gaza (most of which have never voted for Hamas, or supported its terrorism) is now more desperate than ever. When there is a change of leadership in Israel, and the warmongers there have less power and sway, who will they deal with going forward? Can that be Hamas? If not, who? Hard to see any positive path now.
Seen that quote from Weitz many times, but it has no named source and no other journalist has confirmed or second sourced it.
Hmmm, strange then that an Ex Israeli Prime Minister and an Ex Israeli General have both said basically the same, as can be evidenced earlier in the thread.
However, this is all beginning to go around in circles, with no real progress, so, moving on...
where do we stand on the IDF targeting aid convoys and civilians seeking aid?
There’s enough to discuss without inventing things.
I didn't write the article, I suggest a strongly worded letter to the Wall Street Journal.
As you say, Israel imprisoned Yassin in 1984 when he was found with weapons (still before he founded Hamas) so they clearly weren’t cooperating with him then.
You seem to have forgotten what you posted, here's a reminder:
in the 70s Yassin was running a charity proving things like medical care and youth clubs and didn’t form Hamas until the late 80s. As the article acknowledges later, there was no reason to go after someone who at the time was ‘100% peaceful towards Israel.’
In the early 80s Yassin was, despite you pointing out he was supposed "100% peaceful towards Israel", actively involved in illegal possession of arms, the establishment of a military organization and calling for the annihilation of Israel, according to his conviction in an Israeli military court.
Israel very clearly made a huge miscalculation and mistake when they tried to sow divisions among Palestinians in an attempt to draw support away from, at that time, the hugely popular PLO.
And it eventually worked - the PLO lost control of the Gaza strip. It just didn't have the consequences that Israel obviously hoped for.
Why can't you just accept that Israel made a huge mistake at that time with regards to the emerging Hamas movement?
Israel makes lots of huge mistakes and it is currently making the biggest mistake of its entire history. Its response to the Oct 7 attack could not possibly have been worse.
They have managed to turn global public opinion firmly against themselves, even public opinion in their closest and most vital ally the United States. They have not achieved their stated aim of defeating Hamas nor will they.
They are acting like recruiting sergeants for Hamas which is now more popular than it was before Oct 7. Gaza has over one million children, they have 'only' managed to kill about fourteen and a half thousand, they are currently fighting the children which they didn't manage to kill in the half a dozen military incursions into Gaza of the last 20 years. In the future they will fighting the children that survive this one.
As the result of Netanyahu and his far-right government's policies of the last six months Israel will now never ever have peace and security. They have guaranteed its eventual inevitable demise.
Smarter more level-headed zionists might have taken a more pragmatic approach, especially as the Middle East's importance to the West's energy needs will collapse in the coming decades.
The far-right Israeli governments of recent times (and they invariably became evermore right-wing) have totally screwed up . Zionism was the left-wing utopian dream which will be killed by far-right bigots.
where do we stand on the IDF targeting aid convoys and civilians seeking aid?
I assumed that was a rhetorical question. Everybody will be against it.
Glad to hear it, there's been far too much divide and conquer going on elsewhere!
That said, surprised how tolerant the majority have been on the aid convoy issue...
The issue of the attack on the World Central Kitchen aid convoy because of Jose Andre's closeness to the Biden administration is probably not quite as straightforward as just yet another aid convoy attacked by Israel.
There is no doubt imo that the attack was deliberate but it is plausible that the decision to do so was taken at a local level, as the Israeli government claims.
One of the officers who took the decision to order the attack is a right-wing religious settler from the occupied West Bank.
West Bank settlers are known to be exceptionally anti-Palestinian fanatical zionists - they kill Palestinians in the occupied West Bank on more or less a daily basis.
In the letter, Col Mandel, a religious nationalist who lives in a settlement in the occupied West Bank, called with more than 130 other reserve officers and commanders for the flow of aid into Gaza to be restricted.
The letter was sent on January 20 to the Israeli War Cabinet and the IDF chief of staff and implored them to “do everything in your power” not to allow “humanitarian supplies and the operation of hospitals inside Gaza City” following its evacuation.
So the person who took the decision to attack the aid convoy was someone who passionately believed that Palestinian civilians should not receive any aid but was not necessarily, at least on this occasion, following orders.
I reckon that probably reflects the culture that exists in the IDF. They are an undisciplined, lawless, and incompetent, rabble who believe that they have a carte blanche to do whatever they want, including commit war crimes, because frankly they always get away with it.
"Engagement through back channels... is how governments attempt to deal with groups with both political and terrorist intentions...The alternative is going after them militarily"
Well, not quite. Another course of action would have been to recognise that despite their frequent incompetence and venality, Fatah running a functioning Palestinian National Authority would have been in Israel's long term interest in security. (Fatah did settle down once it got into the boring business of government, much like Sinn Fein and the Taliban. A functioning PNA probably would have led to a "permanently interim" solution that would have suited Israel fine). If that is right, then there was no need to encourage division between Hamas and Fatah, or fail to interfere with Hamas's rise.
By the way - throughout all this there is a weird assumption that Israel has the ability to determine the course of Palestinian politics. That's not true. It is one of many influencing factors, and an important one, but the Palestinians themselves have agency. The Fatah-Hamas split did not occur merely because of the Israelis' actions. Equally, as we have seen, despite all the PR Israel is just as cack-handed and amateurish in its attempts to play 4D chess as everyone else in the world.
despite all the PR Israel is just as cack-handed and amateurish in its attempts to play 4D chess as everyone else in the world
Whilst there may be an element of truth in the cack handed and amateurish approach:
https://twitter.com/AssalRad/status/1780698058369704145
(as an aside, can anyone think of any other global statesman still in power who played a role in the disastrous and illegal invasion of Iraq? ...of course, it wasn't so long ago that Mark Sedwill was the most powerful unelected employee of HM Government, but he's moved on to pastures new)
Israel does have a vast influence on the global community both in terms of politics and the media and a regular supply of arms subsidized by tax payers outside of their nation; how do they pull this off, despite being recognized as an apartheid state?
On the whole this thread is going very well. However, I have sent a single message today to a user. Not a warning just a friendly reminder.
Be careful when you post. If you find yourself typing the words, 'you..' for example.. 'You said...', 'Why don't you...'. etc.. then just take a pause and re-think what you want to say. That's how debate and discussion turn personal and become argument. Don't let that spoil what is currently are very well behaved, mature thread.
As you were 🙂
A slight crossover into cycling:
"There are no innocent Gazans.”
From the above link. That claim is used by some Israeli politicians to justify the killing of 33 thousand people in Gaza, mostly women and children,
On the subject of West Bankers hating Palestinians... I have some experience there.
I have family living in Kiryat Arba. We went to visit them a few years ago and and on a trip to the nearby Machpela Cave in Hebron I was treated to an eye-opening tour of the area:
"Here are the steps which used to be the only place the Muslim rulers allowed Jews to pray for 700 years."
"Here are the houses where the occupants were tortured and murdered in the '29 massacre, no Jews were allowed back until very recently and even now it's a fight"
"Here's the spot where an Arab sniper shot a baby in a pram, look that's where his house used to be (now an IDF guard post)"
"Here's where the Arabs killed X"
"Here's where the Arabs destroyed Y"
At the time he was a bus driver on the Jerusalem - Kiryat Arba route, this public bus service has to be bullet-proof and regularly came under stone/bullet attack.
TBF on the other hand this person used to be a member of Kach (the rabidly anti-Arab party which was banned from the Knesset in the 80's for being racist) and thinks Baruch Goldstein was a hero, but it really showed me the depth of feeling in the area and that from the point of view of the settlers, they are the ones who've been unfairly treated and thrown out of their homeland by the Arabs/Palestinians.
Sadly, I don't see a solution happening anytime soon.
I was always disappointed when Froome went to cycle for an Israeli cycling team, but that from his wife is pretty shocking. I'm sure it won't reflect well on him either.
I've never heard of that lady before, but I notice that she and her husband are both repeat immigrants: first to South Africa and then to Monaco. I think he speaks French but I wonder how her Xhosa or Zulu or French are, or how well she has integrated with Monegasque society...?
The UK isn't known for its hostility towards the Israeli government and yet according to the current UK government:
"There have been unprecedented levels of violence by extremist settlers in the West Bank over the past year. Some residents of illegal Israeli settlements and outposts have used harassment, intimidation and violence to put pressure on Palestinian communities to leave their land."
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-sanctions-extremist-settlers-in-the-west-bank
Since Oct 7 483 Palestinians have been violently killed by either settlers or the IDF in the West Bank. Which exposes as a lie the claim that getting rid of Hamas is the solution - Hamas has no control of the West Bank.
I don't know why the UK government is only imposing sanctions on some Israeli settlers and not the Israeli government btw since moving civilians into occupied territories is a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention - a war crime.
And the UK government obviously recognises that as it clearly states that the Israeli settlements are "illegal", which ultimately the Israeli government is responsible for.
