Forum menu
The nicotine-stained man-frog is screaming ‘betrayal’ already.
@stevextc I agree about conflating xenophobia with racism, but I equally dislike either driving government policy.
As for culture, I still don’t get your point. If you don’t like to live surrounded by people of “another culture”, you need to define what that culture is to explain your concerns and motives for others to decide if that is born of racism, xenophobia, or something else. Just waving around the word “culture” is meaningless… and doesn’t magically transform concerns to “not racist” or “not xenophobic” without looking at what is meant be a culture different to your own.
I don’t like it when my neighbours are _________ ?
From the polls I’ve seen, amongst leavers, no deal is way more popular than May’s deal ...
Indeed, because reheating May's deal is just like signing another treaty (surrender) that make UK worst off without a veto voice yet needs to comply with EU rules (I think all but may be wrong).
If PM BoJo thinks he can misled Leavers he will have a shock to his system ...
I am going to wait for more details ...
The nicotine-stained man-frog is screaming ‘betrayal’ already.
It is a betrayal is it not if the deal makes UK worst off?
If it is a betrayal then Tories is history as simple as that.
p/s: Oh ya ... Either way I want to see at least one traditional or main UK political party (doesn't matter which one) decimated in the next GE with NO Chance of revival and consign to history forever. I want to this happening in my lifetime coz I want to see history in the making.
^^^^^ thats not the real chewkw. it's readable...
If you look back at the previous page you'll see I noticed the pound move up 57 minutes ago and made some prredictions based on that, but the deal news broke 31 minutes ago. I smell a rat, some people knew about the news and went long pound short Euro and had half an hours warning - enough people to move the market a little before the news broke. Some people are making a fortune out of Brexit with what would be illegal insider trading if it were share trading.
It is a betrayal is it not if the deal makes UK worst off?
every single version of Brexit makes the UK worse off!
Some people are making a fortune out of Brexit with what would be illegal insider trading if it was share trading.
Absolutely Possible.
Market gamblers are gluing to the news for sometimes now trying to make a quick £££.
If PM BoJo thinks he can misled Leavers he will have a shock to his system …
Seriously? They've been doing this for years. The very fact that "no deal" is popular with anyone who isn't Aaron Banks, Crispin Odey or Putin very ably demonstrates just how difficult it isn't to mislead leavers.
every single version of Brexit makes the UK worse off!
I wouldn't go that far as it is impossible to consider all possibilities.
But with re-heated May's deal UK will be in for a rough ride.
Seriously? They’ve been doing this for years. The very fact that “no deal” is popular with anyone who isn’t Aaron Banks, Crispin Odey or Putin very ably demonstrates just how difficult it is to mislead leavers.
Because most leavers are just not that vocal to express their views (can't be arsed) so they just let the politicians alone ... most of the time they leave them alone because of the No hope situation of being sold out.
Now it is different ... they ain't getting their bone back and the dog is not letting it go. 😁
Sorry for engaging with the Troll, but if any deal that makes the UK worse off is a betrayal, and not leaving the EU is a betrayal, what is not a “betrayal”? As all outcomes other than keeping EU membership makes the UK worse off than keeping EU membership. And, secondly, who or what is being betrayed in any of these outcomes?
But with re-heated May’s deal UK will be in for a rough ride.
What's Chewkw on today? Both readable and realistic about the consequences.
Bruno Waterfield of the Times was indicating deal done nearly two hours ago so way before your graph, Brussels is leaky
Ta, Mefty, not so cloak and dagger then, just some media are more on the ball than others. But why do you say Brussels is leaky? It might equally be Boris and Co. You'll note I didn't accuse either side in my post above.
... what is not a “betrayal” ...
Logically?
Get out with No Deal first.
Try it out then see what happens.
Then decide on next cause of action.
Try it out then see what happens
is no way to run a country.
It’s probably okay if your passport and personal situation lets you leave the country and work elsewhere at the drop of a hat if it all goes tits up.
But anyway, how is “no deal” not a betrayal if any deal is a betrayal, based on any deal making us worse off, and who or what would any deal be a betrayal of?
Get out with No Deal first.
Try it out then see what happens.
Then decide on next cause of action.
I can see no risks to this approach whatsoever, seems perfectly sensible.
Where's that sarcmark I was promised.
Try it out then see what happens.
Can be a good idea sometimes.
However not normally when working with a production system unless you have really run out of ideas and it is already so screwed it cant really get worse.
Because Bruno Waterfield is well plugged into the Brussels corridors as he is a Brussels correspondent, I have been following him for some time because he is consistently ahead of the game on EU movements. Tony Connelly is best plugged in for the Irish side and if I had to choose a UK correspondent it would be James Forsyth, but he isn't as consistent as the other two.
So its all about numbers
Grieve not looking keen on deal but several ERG holdouts have said they will, DUP saying no
It all comes down to the Labour rebels & I think theyll scrape it for Johnson
surely "no deal" is a betrayal to all the people who were told and subsequently believed that this would be "the easiest deal in the history of easy deals"?
Roumors that Labour will whip for the amendment on ‘Super Saturday’ to include a second ref for the presumably now known deal Vs remain.
That would be amazeballs!
[i]not so cloak and dagger then[/i]
If I had a couple of hundred Mil available to make a killing with, I would most certainly have a team of people with their ears to the ground watching everything - in the UK and in Brussels. People like that don't wait to find stuff out "on the BBC".
Tony Connelly is best plugged in for the Irish side and if I had to choose a UK correspondent it would be James Forsyth, but he isn’t as consistent as the other two.
James Forsyth just repeats whatever press release cummings/CCHQ tell him to
My local MP is a full fat ERG no deal Brexit headbanger.
He's all over his facebook / twitter triumphantly claiming a "Great new brexit deal", with Tory central office produced graphics of BoJo standing statesman like against a union jack flag.
So it seems like Bo jo has somehow got the Tory headbangers into line at least. The same MP, who recently was lauding the DUP Stalwarts is also now syaing their a roadblock to the Brexit dream.
They're going under the bus.
Apparently they're going to ask the EU not to back another extension - leaving parliament to choose between this deal & no deal...
Of course he won't. If he did he wouldn't be able to get his Red Unicorn Brexit.
So as I understand it on Saturday there will be a debate with a potential amendment added to the deal for a 2nd referendum which as off a couple of days ago there wasn’t a parliamentary majority for , then a vote on Boris’s deal which could be very close if the ERG vote with him and enough labour rebels do to . Is that about right ?
Of course he won’t. If he did he wouldn’t be able to get his Red Unicorn Brexit.
I still think this could move… and this week. Watch this space… a referendum followed by an election could well be coming… with Labour making it happen… and I still think this means us leaving May next year… but obviously will be voting against that myself, given the chance to do so.
Of course he won’t. If he did he wouldn’t be able to get his Red Unicorn Brexit.
Why would labour support a deal which is worse than the one they previously rejected?
Seems like a stitch up, on saturday they want the vote to be an either BoJo deal or No deal. THat doesnt seem rgith to me, and not the normal way the parliment works
Why would labour support a deal which is worse than the one they previously rejected?
So Labour won't support a second referendum until they've had their chance at the unicorn?
There is no better deal. Corbyn knows it. Everyone knows it. It's yet another way of avoiding putting it back to the people.
Why would labour support a deal which is worse than the one they previously rejected?
Your regular reminder that supporting a referendum on any particular deal is not the same as supporting that deal.
There is no better deal.
May's deal was better. Yet everyone agreed that it was still not good enough and it was rightly rejected. So why should this one be voted through? Would you not prefer the choice between a better deal and remain in a new referendum?
Would you not prefer the choice between a better deal and remain in a new referendum?
When?
It might be time to bring this to a head. Especially if the alternative is the current deal getting passed in parliament without a referendum.
If it genuinely was a choice, now, between a referendum on this deal, or a referendum on a deal with closer alignment on customs and workers rights etc, then obviously the second is preferable. That’s not the case though, is it.
Would you not prefer the choice between a better deal and remain in a new referendum?
You mean a choice between a Unicorn deal and Remain? Sure, I would prefer that but guess what, it ain't going to happen.
Or am I just thinking too negatively?
this round of negotiation has further proved that in order for the Good Friday Agreement to be honoured we need customs union across all of the UK. Theresa's WA didn't fly, Johnson's agreement won't either and a GE will deliver another stalemate. time for a people's vote on the options
Can't see this deal passing, Farage says it shit, but I fancy he would because he fancies an 8th (or possibly 9th?) Crack at becoming an MP. Not that he directly matters, but he's a decent barometer of what the ERG think.
The DUP don't like it, well they're the DUP they don't dislike anything, they jump straight to hate every time.
The SNP won't vote for it.
Plaid & Greens won't vote for it.
Labour won't because the Centrists are remain and it's the wrong kind of Brexit for the Socalists.
Which only leaves the Tories with their -42 majority... some of the ERG might vote for it, Lord only knows why, it's meaningfully the same as the May deal on the bits they care about. The Party faithful might vote for it, you can bet they'll whip for it.
Of course Corbyn is the bloody kingmaker again, I do wish he'd **** off for a bit, we could have this Brexit BS nailed in a box a fortnight if he'd just give up on this Red Unicorn Brexit idea, his Party doesn't like it, the Country doesn't like, Parliament doesn't like it. the EU don't know about it (well officially) yet. Still Momentum won't let him go, they'd rather risk another 5 years under Boris, rather than 5 years under another Leader who's not quite as Red as Corbyn, but that's idealists for you.
MPs win bid to hold second referendum vote
MPs have won a key parliamentary vote paving the way for a Commons bid to secure a second referendum on Saturday.
Tory backbencher Sir Oliver Letwin led a successful bid to allow backbench MPs to amend Boris Johnson's Brexit plans, in a knife edges vote that passed by 287 votes to 275.
What has Johnson promised the EU if Juncker is coming out with no further extension.
Not even for a referendum?
The clever* bit has emerged; part of the deal struck by Johnson is that the EU will rule out an extension; making it Johnson’s deal or no deal, attempting to rule out Johnson’s deal vs remain.
*We’ll see.
What has Johnson promised the EU if Juncker is coming out with no further extension.
Not even for a referendum?
I can't see them saying no to another referendum on the deal vs revoke. If that's the case and Corbyn still won't support it then any shred of a doubt I had about him being vaguely competent will be gone.
I watched Junkers speech - he didn’t rule out an extension. He said “We don’t need an extension as we have a deal”
It is being reported by the BBC that Juncker has ruled out a further extension.
Hah! No deal it is then, unless this is an EU bluff to trip up the ERG.
I watched Junkers speech – he didn’t rule out an extension. He said “We don’t need an extension as we have a deal”
But this is what I heard.
agree Junckers comment is being reported a bit different to how he said it.
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184823017442033666
From BBC website…
The European Commission President says he spoke to Boris Johnson 30 minutes ago about the prospect of an extension.
Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters: "I was ruling out that there would be any kind of prolongation.
"If we have a deal we have a deal and there is no need for prolongation.
"That is the British view and that is my view too."
Asked about whether the Commons would allow it, he said: "I am not in charge of Parliamentary affairs of Britain."
Guardian has a breakdown of what Juncker said
Interpret it how you wish. It’s down to the UK parliament now, is my interpretation. UK gov and EU not talking about an extension. By 11pm Saturday, they probably will be.
It’ll be no deal - Labour can’t be seen backing it, DUP won’t and neither will the ERG (who will now smell the potential for a no deal brexit).
Ooft. Nailbiting season finale.
ERG have already lauded it as “a great deal”
If parliament votes this thing down, then the UK and EU don't have a deal.
Junckers comments really are not helpful. The deal is not a done thing within the UK.
Andy: "Want a deal."
Lou: "But Andy, you had a deal only last week."
Andy: "Yeah I know. Want that one."
Lou: "Well, OK Andy, we'll get you a deal. Here you go."
Andy: "Don't like it."
Lou: "Well, what a kerfuffle."
Junckers comments really are not helpful
They're helpful for Boris...
Junker has clarified his comments
About to get on a plane back but just on Juncker’s words on extension. EU source says: “It’s not in his gift to rule it out, he is just defending the deal and saying one shouldn't be needed...I am 100% certain EU27 would permit an extension if deal falls on Saturday.”
EDIT:
P.S. Why is it that the more I learn about any subject the more I despair of the kneejerk TV media coverage.
ERG have already lauded it as “a great deal”
Without reading it. Lots of scope to row back from that position.
Is a binding referendum pitching this deal v remain now a realistic scenario without the a GE in between?
Or is it now this deal or extend and have a GE first?
What’s the odds on it getting exactly the same number of for and against votes as Mays deal?
Labour won’t support a ‘Tory Brexit’, the DUP wont support it, so neither will the ERG.
No deal, here we come!
That puts Nicola Sturgeon in a bit of a fix. She has consistently ruled out No Deal but can't possibly support a deal which leaves NI in a customs union that doesn't include Scotland.
Labour won’t support a ‘Tory Brexit’, the DUP wont support it, so neitgervwill the ERG.
No deal, here we come!
If the deal doesnt make it through parliament, then an extension is requested via the Benn act/amendment
I suspect the only way the deal could make it through parliament is with a ref2 amendment attached, Bojos deal Vs remain.
Interpret it how you wish
Britain started off asking to leave and ended up being kicked out.
If you go back to the start of the thread, not even the most extreme brexiters were in favour of a Brexit this hard. It's Norway minus all the good bits.
useful
this guy gves johnson a 10% chance of getting vote thru commons unscathed
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHFd6M8XUAAVj8L?format=jpg
What has Johnson promised the EU if Juncker is coming out with no further extension.
Not even for a referendum?
It's a terrifying prospect, I can't tell whether he's trying to encourage Centrics to vote for it to avoid no-deal, or to encourage them to shoot it down an push ahead with the VONC to try to end it all.
He might just be as fed up with the whole thing as everyone else.
Sensationist headlines at BBC in my opinion, Jucker was saying there's no need for an extension because of [s]May deal 1.4[/s] Boris deal.
scotroutes
Member
That puts Nicola Sturgeon in a bit of a fix. She has consistently ruled out No Deal but can’t possibly support a deal which leaves NI in a customs union that doesn’t include Scotland.
sturgeon is fine
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1184833950193213441
I suspect the only way the deal could make it through parliament is with a ref2 amendment attached, Bojos deal Vs remain.
Agreed.
Not only that, but what’s the alternative? To seek an extension, and for what…? If we tell the EU it’s for us to fight several elections, and perhaps end up with No Deal… or yet more can kicking… why should they put up with that? An extension for a referendum, resulting in either the agreed Withdrawal Agreement being ratified and trade deal talks proper being kicked off, or the whole thing being called off and the UK staying in the EU… that narrows the outcomes for them, and gives them the knowledge that the extension will actually end with a resolution, of sorts.
When does Junker move on by the way? Soon?
No matter what happens, some things never change...
Magic Grandad still happily sat there on his fence
Lol Farage, hahah! desperatley clining onto what little relevence he still has 🙂
its all about the labour rebels
@stevextc I agree about conflating xenophobia with racism, but I equally dislike either driving government policy.
As for culture, I still don’t get your point. If you don’t like to live surrounded by people of “another culture”, you need to define what that culture is to explain your concerns and motives for others to decide if that is born of racism, xenophobia, or something else. Just waving around the word “culture” is meaningless… and doesn’t magically transform concerns to “not racist” or “not xenophobic” without looking at what is meant be a culture different to your own.
My point is debate is not getting that far because it is shut down the minute someone say's "I don’t like it when my neighbourhood is dominated overwhelmingly by...."
I don’t like it when my neighbours are _________ ?
Based on the xenophobes I know the issue is not who lives next door but if the overwhelming majority of the surrounding 1000 families are all from a single culture (as they themselves define it).
This is the same as many of the non-xenophobes I know, a large percent being immigrants or mixed origin themselves. (I count our family in this and also my Dr friend by which I mean people with a preference for a multi-cultural neighbourhood)
The main difference is in general the more xenophobic ones are voting leave because they get called racist by remain for saying "I don't like it when my neighbourhood is"
My dirty maths even with full tory backing:
Party Seats Against bojo
Conservative 288 -
Labour 244 220
Independent 36 28
SNP 35 35
Liberal Dem 19 19
DUP 10 10
Change 5 5
Plaid Cymru 4 4
Green Party 1 1
Total seats 642 322
Maj more than 321<p lang="en" dir="ltr">People’s Vote MPs pulling back from having any second ref vote on Saturday - say it’s now not the time, better to wait (they don’t have numbers among former Tory MPs)</p>— Rowena Mason (@rowenamason) October 17, 2019
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Struggling to embed tweet but unlikely to be vote on another referendum on Saturday
agree Junckers comment is being reported a bit different to how he said it.
Outrage by Farage say's it all!
Junker supports the British PM/clown saying we have a deal whilst answering a question from a journalist - Farage is outraged.
Alternate scenario.... Junker undermines our clown and say's of course an extension is still possible... outcome Farage is outraged.
Corbyn this morning or rather "in his name"
From what we know, it seems the Prime Minister has negotiated an even worse deal than Theresa May’s, which was overwhelmingly rejected.
These proposals risk triggering a race to the bottom on rights and protections: putting food safety at risk, cutting environmental standards and workers’ rights, and opening up our NHS to a takeover by US private corporations.
This sell-out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.
I am 100% certain EU27 would permit an extension if deal falls on Saturday.”
These unnamed "sources"could be anybody. I think that the reason Barnier and Junker are going so hard for a deal is that there's a good chnace it's their last chance. As my evaluation has as much validity as any unnamed "source" I'll pitch in with a 50% chance of an extension being refused.
“I don’t like it when my neighbourhood is dominated overwhelmingly by….”
People tend to ask “by what”… and the answer to that question tends to tell you if the concern is born of racism, or xenophobia, or something else.
You can keep talking about “culture”, but at some point @stevextc you have to get down to specifics. Only then can you work out the motivations.
I’ll pitch in with a 50% chance of an extension being refused.
which country would refuse it though?
would be very divisive for commission, cant see them damaging themself over this