Forum menu
Or is it just a continuation of the toxic people V’s parliament narrative they are desperately pushing?
Could be both tbh. it’s useful material either way for his election campaign.
I Don’t think there’s a downside for him on it.
If he gets an in-principle deal and then parliament votes it down after banging on about how he must get a deal is pretty much lighting the people versus parliament touch paper for bonfire night.
His problem is a VONC and another referendum before an election but his party aren’t likely to help with that if he’s got a deal.
Back to the original backstop it is.
Boris has thrown the Dup under the bus and then reversed and crushed them a bit more.
If this is true, then Boris is an idiot. It won’t get through, Bojo will be hammered at an election due to the Brexit party....that would be a pretty unprecedented political blunder on his part.
Unless he has enough lexiteers and ERG members on his side to do it?
Laws need changing, yes @zippykona… but the same is true for any deal. Lots to do… we we’re unlikely to be leaving this month unless it’s a car crash no deal with rushed post exit legislation implemented by bypassing parliament.
Yep but I don’t think A slight technical delay to implement his deal if he gets one would actually hurt him much as thought so I’d pretty much think he’d be saying we’re out when we’re technically still in.
If this is true, then Boris is an idiot
Nope he’s just playing the hand he was given, they were always going to have to fudge NI and they knew it from day one as it was left as the last part of the deal to be sorted out.
At our decision if I remember correctly.
Rayban - the lexiteers are very few in number - what he must be counting on is Kinniocks crew - they are not lexiteers. they are scared of their racist electorates and want brexit so they can keep their seats even tho they know it will be a disaster. they are almost all on the right of the labour party. Plus outright racists like Hoey
TJ is right, it is the ‘practical remainers’ that are the biggest risk… the real Lexiteers prize a shot at getting Corbyn into no10, and a chance of a Labour Brexit… they will not bail Johnson out. It is remain voting Labour MPs, mostly on the right of the party, looking to save their Leave seats, who don’t really want Corbyn as PM, who will back whatever Johnson offers. And a tiny few nationalist Brexit Party nutters who are sleepers inside Labour. In addition, most Lexiteer MPs have now publicly fully got behind the idea of a second referendum (some as late as this week mind you), the rebels who might back Johnson and are still stridently against a referendum mostly campaigned for Remain.
I’m not sure what to make of Kinnocks lot, I wouldn’t call them New Labour. Just a motley bunch of opportunists?
Perfectly put.
Just a motley bunch of opportunists?
Brexit seems to throw up an awful lot of these.
they are scared of their racist electorates
Come on TJ, that's a very lazy stereotype and you know it. Sure, the sort of working class constituencies who voted to leave which Kinnock et al represent have a problem with racism, and are probably 20-30 years behind the big cities in their enlightenment, due largely to either having very small and/or very segregated non-white communities. But is it not possible they voted to leave for reasons other than racism? Do you think Kinnock and Lisa Nandy etc would put their names to whatever it is their constituents are telling them if it was just driven by racism?
Sure, the sort of working class constituencies who voted to leave which Kinnock et al represent have a problem with racism, and are probably 20-30 years behind the big cities in their enlightenment, due largely to either having very small and/or very segregated non-white communities. But is it not possible they voted to leave for reasons other than racism?
Apart from the working class bit, rural (but wealthy) areas are also 20-30 years behind and have pretty much zero immigration. The people I have spoken to over the last 20 years of living here tells me they are racist yes. But then when our Tory MP (in place for 20 years) is ready to black up at the drop of a hat it is not really surprising.
Boris has thrown the Dup under the bus and then reversed and crushed them a bit more.
If this is true, then Boris is an idiot. It won’t get through, Bojo will be hammered at an election due to the Brexit party….that would be a pretty unprecedented political blunder on his part.
Unless he has enough lexiteers and ERG members on his side to do it?
On Brexit the ERG and DUP are two cheeks of the same arse. If Joris Bohnson has come up with a deal that the DUP won't vote for, then there's no way the ERG headbangers will back it either.
Let's be honest, no matter about all the spin being put on it, whats Joris is proposing is just Mays deal with a few caveats. The ERG/DUP will still view it as 'breaking up the union'. So getting this through parliament is going to hinge on how big the number of Labours 'just get it done' brigade are prepared to vote for it.
I don't think the ERG mob are prepared to vote for any deal, no matter what the detail is. The backstop is actually just one of a long list of reasons they wouldn't support Mays deal. It's No Deal all the way for them. Has been all along
Xenpohobia at best.
These labour MPs are just idiots who have completely lost their way. "weathervane" politicians is how they were described on this thread. " these are my principles and if you do not like them I have others"
What really annoys me is they know brexit will be a disaster especially in those constituencies but they still think they need to follow the xenophobes in their communities in case they get voted out. So for them its job before party before country.
I despair of them
A sad symptom of how low westminster politics have gone
To be fair to Westminster politicians, the entire system of government has had a hand grenade thrown into it and they've been asked to deliver the impossible
I don't buy all this 'they're all in it for themselves' narrative. My own MP is a thoroughly decent bloke who went into politics for all the right reasons. I think most of them are*.
But they must all know that there is no good outcome to this. Its all about damage limitation and trying to ensure the least damage to their constituents. The least shit option
* I'm obviously excluding Boris Johnson and the ERG cult-of-Brexit headbangers from this who I consider to be the most glaring example of self-serving ideologically-driven charlatans this country has ever seen, who couldn't give a shit about anyone other than themselves and their rich, tax-avoiding friends and funders. They'll all do very nicely out of this car crash, whatever the implications for the rest of us
* ours is not
Binners -= you really think that about the Kinnock crew?
IMO far too many of our westminster politicians are there to get rich not for any altruistic reason and that is across all parties. Far too many of them are willing to do anything for a few quid
I note that village idiot David Davis has popped up again from the soft play centre he's kept in, to deliver his words of wisdom.
Christ on a bendybus, that bloke is as thick as mince
My MP campaigned for remain in an area that voted 64% to leave. He then came out as backing leave in the 2017 election and increased his majority. His principles seem to have fallen by the wayside.
But is it not possible they voted to leave for reasons other than racism?
Or other reasons as well as racism? I find that more likely.
Or even more likely other reasons that were concocted after the event to legitimise their actions.
My MP campaigned for remain in an area that voted 64% to leave. He then came out as backing leave in the 2017 election and increased his majority. His principles seem to have fallen by the wayside.
Or, less cynically, he agonised over a decision about sticking to his own beliefs or reflecting those of the majority of large his constituents. 64% is a large margin. That's a tough call.
My constituency absolutely reflected the national vote at 52/48. My (labour, non-corbynite/PFJ) MP is a staunch remainer who has continued with that, and if you look on his social media and communications he has received a constant deluge of traitor/enemy of the people type abuse for doing so.
I wouldn't fancy being an MP in the middle of all this turmoil. Would you?
Whichever way you jump, half the people are going to hate you for it
Far too many of them are willing to do anything for a few quid
On this subject I wonder about Nicky Morgan's personal finances. To go from arch-remainer and best mate of Soubry, to no deal apologist, Boris supporting cabinet member suggests she really needs the ministerial salary.
As for Kinnock et al, I really don't know. It is a curious one, and I'm not sure it's only about self interest. Perhaps they feel duty bound to represent their constituents in the way they do? Or maybe they just want to create trouble for Corbyn? It's a weird issue to martyr themselves on that's for sure.
Nicky Morgan is probably the ultimate example of being bought off with a ministerial car and chauffeur. She's a disgrace. She went from ardent remainer to publishing an article in the Guardian about us all having nothing to fear from No Deal, and it'd all be Boris's bright sunlit uplands.
An absolute charlatan
Kinnock jr = I think its three things - mainly scared of those xenophobes in his constituency and desperate to court them to keep his seat, wanting to make trouble for Corbyn and being stupid
Whichever way you jump, half the people are going to hate you for it
Ah, empathy for Corbyn at last then?
Not really. Sitting dithering while refusing to commit one way the other, or saying one thing to one audience, then the opposite to another just means that everyone thinks you're a ****! 😉
Anyway, it looks like Boris's game is up. The combined immense brain power of Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood and Mark Francois have combined to realise that they're Brexiteer hero is basically going to bring back Mays deal and ask them to vote for it. In fact, its worse, because it keeps Norn Oirland in the EU customs union for good
Instead of sticking it to Brussells, it's groundhog day. Again...
but I fawt we was gonna have no deel no sirrender
It looks like dying in a ditch is going the same way as lying in front of bulldozers
Fois-gras eating surrender monkey.
The combined immense brain power of Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood and Mark Francois have combined to realise that they’re Brexiteer hero is basically going to bring back Mays deal and ask them to vote for it.
Except this time they can't so easily vote it down as Johnson is their man. It still seems unlikely but I think the ERG could back down and vote it through with the help of the labour idiots. I can only imagine what Theresa May will think about that. Corbyn will be even more pissed off, as thanks to the pressure from remainers and his resultant acquiesence, all labour's electoral hopes hinge on Boris not getting a deal and having to go cap in hand to the EU to ask for an extension, hence why they're threatening to deselect any labour MPs threatening to rebel.
And I might add that I and some others predicted all this some time ago. 🙂
Except this time they can’t so easily vote it down as Johnson is their man
Right up until the point that he's no longer their man. Everything must be sacrificed at the altar of Brexit. Including Boris.
They're keeping quiet for the moment, which is unusual, but I can't see them or the 'no surrender' DUP voting for anything close to what's being proposed at the moment, which is Mays deal, but a bit shitter
Riddle me this… if Johnson is relying on people who really want Brexit above all else to vote for his party at the next election… what happens if he “gets Brexit done” before the election, neutralising it somewhat as the central voting issue? Does he think voters will “thank” him for Brexit, or vote based on all the other issues in front of us? If his electoral plan is winning seats off Labour in the North, by attracting Leave fanatics who otherwise might vote Labour, what leverage will he use to do that, if we are out of the EU? Voters don’t vote to thank politicians for what’s been done, but vote for what they think needs doing next…
Does he think voters will “thank” him for Brexit, or vote based on all the other issues in front of us?
Yes, he absolutely does think voters will thank him. And they probably will. It'll be 'man of the people, got the job done, visionary leader and statesman, the only person who could stick it to the EU etc' all the way through the campaign. Add in some magic money tree promises on the NHS and Law and Order and it'll be another 5 years with a landslide majority to do what he wants. And you thought a no deal brexit was scary?
The next step is actually getting a deal (or actually hundreds of deals) so we can travel, and trade, and do everything else we currently do. His 'getting brexit done' stance will probably still appeal to the brexitty types.
what happens if he “gets Brexit done” before the election, neutralising it somewhat as the central voting issue
He will be able to use it as a "you can trust the bloke who has been sacked twice for lying" line and therefore will be able to promise the earth to those people before ****ing them over.
Is one view on his tactics.
Another is he is winging in and has boxed himself into a corner.
But if the deal he gets is basically Mays deal, or worse (from a Gammon 'no surrender' point of view) then he'll have Farage screaming 'BETRAYAL!' from the sidelines. And as we know, a lot of traditional Tory voters and a hefty chunk of labour ones will buy that shit. They'll see it as Brexit In Name Only, and demand the invasion of Normandy and the carpet bombing of Dresden.
It's been said often enough. Brexit is only the start of the process. Voters will trust him to do the right sort of negotiating in the follow-up period because he proved he can get the job done.
And as we know, a lot of traditional Tory voters and a hefty chunk of labour ones will buy that shit.
Depends on who he can get on his side to provide counter propaganda.
At least some of those nutters may be willing to accept Mays deal rebranded in order to get brexit through without a second referendum. Remember its only the initial stage of negotiations so they may think it is worth that surrender and then winning in the next round.
Not saying thats how it will work out since lets face it we are dealing with a bunch of loonies who are rather hard to predict but it may be the outcome he is hoping for.
Plus, of course, you have Cummings who doesnt give a **** about what happens to the tories and will happily watch Johnson and the ERG fight each other to the mutual death.
The next step is actually getting a deal
“No deal is better than a bad deal” etc. Actively trying to rapidly get the deals we need will be seen as undoing Brexit to some, and just boring and distant to others. I just don’t think he’d get the thanks, in terms of actual votes, that many expect. Voters will leak back to Labour, based on non-Brexit issues, and also to whatever nationalist party the Brexit Party morphs into next. I suppose in some areas (SW) he’ll get some votes off the LibDems, but Johnson could be making himself more and more toxic to those voters the way he’s carrying out the role of PM.
Fois-gras eating surrender monkey.
That's the sort of racism light that got Britain into this mess. Part of a low regard for "johnny foreigner" and in particular "krauts" (as used in recent leave.eu propaganda). There are some dodgy papers in Europe, Germany's BILD makes amusing reading. But nowhere comes close to the xenophobia splashed across Britian's red tops. A lot of it based on that unhealthy British obsession, WWII. So yeah, that quote up top sums up how too many Brits view their European neighbours. And then they want a deal... .
That’s the sort of racism light that got Britain into this mess.
It's a misquote from that well-known British institution, The Simpsons.
But yeah, you're probably not wrong.
^ Oooh look
Workers rights sneaking away under the grand auspices of 'THE DEAL'.
...closely followed by environmental standrds
I think it is safe to say everyone trusts the government intentions in that area.
Its just the perception of whether those intentions are good or bad for the workers will vary.
Every time someone mentions the war in relation to Brexit I just tell them that we're in the EU to stop all of that happening again, meaning we will not have to slaughter our younger generations in bringing it to an end. I know that's very simplistic but it seems to work. I've even managed to get my dad to change from a solid leaver into a remainer using that as part of my arguement. The rest was won by pointing out on a journey to his chemo appointment from Crickhowell to Cardiff everything on the way that was only made possible by the EU Development Fund. This included BPW, multiple industrial estates and even the actual road we were travelling on! He saw the light, others can too.
Interesting news on BBC . It looks like the the likelihood of a deal is slowly fading away and No Deal getting stronger.
Come on TJ, that’s a very lazy stereotype and you know it. Sure, the sort of working class constituencies who voted to leave which Kinnock et al represent have a problem with racism, and are probably 20-30 years behind the big cities in their enlightenment, due largely to either having very small and/or very segregated non-white communities. But is it not possible they voted to leave for reasons other than racism? Do you think Kinnock and Lisa Nandy etc would put their names to whatever it is their constituents are telling them if it was just driven by racism?
You can call it what you want... the people of Wales probably just don't want mass immigration be that English, European or anywhere else. This is what they have been told will happen unless we leave the EU.
and are probably 20-30 years behind the big cities in their enlightenment
It's an interesting thing you speak of big cities as enlightened. "Big Cities" are a different culture to somewhere like Abergavenny or Hebden Bridge. I was in London today, and I most certainly don't want to live there, if I did I wouldn't have moved out.
Quite why they think Brexit will stop that is a bit of a puzzle to me but branding a whole set of people racist because they don't want to live in another culture is not productive nor accurate. My reasons for not wanting to live in a London Culture are nothing to do with the religious or ethnic mix, quite the opposite that's one of the few positives for me, I just don't like the whole busy City culture.
Then you wonder why these people turn to Brexit/Leave ???
Workers rights sneaking away under the grand auspices of ‘THE DEAL’.
Come on guys , this is global Britain now. You have to compete with a Bangladeshi whose village now gets flooded every year and really doesn't care what shit pay or conditions he has to work under.
We are all in this together.
Then you wonder why these people turn to Brexit/Leave ???
Because they don’t like living in a city? Or they think leaving the EU will make cities slower and quieter? I just don’t get your point at all.
That QC has Basque linen (google images for "linge Basque") as his site backdrop, is that significant?
Interesting news on BBC . It looks like the the likelihood of a deal is slowly fading away and No Deal getting stronger.
FAKE NEWS! OBVIOUSLY NOT THE REAL CHEWKW!! NO MENTION OF PM BOJO
Even so it’s all a bit shit do I find myself wandering more often to my happy place with Katie Sunshine...
This is my happy place.
Warning, there’s cursing and Dumbojo being beheaded.
Top song as well.
That QC has Basque linen (google images for “linge Basque”) as his site backdrop, is that significant?
He doesn't. it is the rather dubious warming stripe graphic developed at Reading
I think a lot of people are being a bit mean about the current Membership of Parliament. Whilst there is obviously an element of careerism in it, i'd like to think it's not as significant as is being made out here.
Everyone is trying to make the best of a badly dealt hand, i think that has to be our starting point.
My MP - Jeremy Lefroy - is a superlative case in point - campaigned for Remain in what turned out to be a very Leave constituency. Has teetered precariously between 'honouring' the 52% and 'betraying' the 52% in almost equal measure, becoming one of the Mail's targets at one point as a 'traitor'. I think he might even have had his mugshot on the front page.
He's actually decided to stand down because of all of this sh*t, so our Conservative candidate for the next one will be Jacob Cream-Cracker's niece of all people.
Prior to '97 it was a safe seat that returned Bill '****ing' Cash to Parliament in perpetuity, but after a boundary change, the dash for Cash was to a safer seat in Stone.
In '97 the seat was lost to Labour, the Conservative candidate had been one Cameron, D.
I never voted for Lefroy, but he is the exact opposite of what you all seem to think is a bog standard MP - he went into the House hoping to make a difference. He's an advocate for support for African development via targeted aid, for example, which kind of makes you think. well why did you want to be the Conservative candidate? Seeing the Party he represented being no longer representative - let's not forget a long history of a more compassionate conservatism than is currently in favour - he's said goodbye - no flip-flopping, no tortuous leaps of logic, just a brief farewell.
Because nobody has a monopoly on what is right, we can only believe that what we think is right is so.
One thing i can be absolutely sure of is that Lefroy was never in it for himself.
Bear in mind that in Staffordshire, 96% of the population are White British.
No wonder, then, that they felt so threatened by the 'swarm' of immigrant 'cockroaches' blighting their homeland.
It was obviously a measured response to the crisis that engulfed them.
"... it is the rather dubious warming stripe graphic developed at Reading."
@mefty
It so obviously isn't. Is the infrequency of your involvement in any way related to the frequency of it being called out as bs?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50079385
Can't work out if this is a deal, can be ratified by all concerned before Saturday and we leave on 31st or if it can't be ratified by Saturday, does that mean another extension or...??
In the last 5 minutes on the BBC News website they proclaimed that BJ has agreed a deal with the EU, followed 30 seconds later with "the DUP say they can not support it".
BJ might get sufficient support from Labour MPs that the DUP vote isn't required.
I'm also reading on Twitter that the DUP have been offered a fortune for their co-operation .... so they may suddenly decide they can accept it after all ....
I think he's throwing the DUP under the bus and hoping enough of his former Tory colleagues and anti-Corbyn labour MPs (assuming Corbyn whips against it) vote for it to get it through.
I guess it all hinges on whether the ERG are willing to throw the DUP under the bus too.
The currency markets think no deal isn't going to happen and a customs union for all the UK is looking more likely even if Brexit ever happens:
https://www.onvista.de/devisen/Euro-Pfund-EUR-GBP
So now he needs to calculate whether he needs to offer the DUP something or not. He won't want to offer them anything if he doesn't need to, but he'd kick himself for losing the deal because we didn't offer them something when he could have. How big is his pot of money currently?
It's also possible that this is all a bit of a gambit to prevent him from having to send the Extension letter.
I guess it all hinges on whether the ERG are willing to throw the DUP under the bus too.
They seem very happy to throw anyone under a bus except themselves.
Roumors that Labour will whip for the amendment on 'Super Saturday' to include a second ref for the presumably now known deal Vs remain.
I can see it passing if thats the case, then it' extension and 2nd ref time.
Time for parliament to do the obvious … accept the new Withdrawal Agreement, subject to a referendum. I still think this will result in us leaving in May 2020… but with the consent of the voters. Obviously, I hope a referendum will go the other way, but I doubt it will. Still a better result than either leaving with no deal, or leaving without consent for the way we are doing so.
It so obviously isn’t. Is the infrequency of your involvement in any way related to the frequency of it being called out as bs?
It isn't the strip or dubious? It is and I think it is better to present data with a idea of scale which this doesn't
No it is a function of having a life so didn't look at the forum again for a few days by which time it is pretty pointless returning to an old post, anyway it was called out as bs by TJ which is probably one of the best sources of confirmation one can.
Seems like it will all boil down to how many labour mp's rebel and how many of the ex tories get back on board.
It's going to be close on Saturday.
Surely anyone in favour of a second ref will want the deal to be as crap as possible, no?
Surely anyone in favour of a second ref will want the deal to be as crap as possible, no?
Why?
Anyone in favour of remain might take that approach.
Anyone in favour of a second referendum should be hoping for the best possible leave choice to be put against remain.
Then you wonder why these people turn to Brexit/Leave ???
kelvin
I just don’t get your point at all.
Obviously not (and I mean that kindly).
Leave have managed to create a story that it's the EU setting UK immigration.
Obviously some EU nationals do choose to come and live and work in the UK on a temporary or permanent basis but that wasn't the way Leave presented it.
What many people see and experience was described by Taxi... so say someone from Abergavenny (David Davis's constituency) goes to Cardiff and see's ghetto's specifically created as ghetto's and the policy of creating them specifically placing and forcing immigrants into ghetto's (which is UK policy nothing to do with the EU).
Quite honestly I see nothing wrong with someone not wanting to live as the only non Somali/Bangladeshi or Spanish/French or EVEN ENGLISH person in an estate ghetto. It's not racist to want to live mainly with people of your own culture.
I'm I'll admit unusual in that when I have lived in various places round the world I've actively tried to avoid being in a English ghetto or White Ghetto... (for example you can go to Paris and live in a dominantly English/American area round the British school ... I know many that did .. I just chose not to) and I hardly need to mention the Costa del English ...
Because they don’t like living in a city? Or they think leaving the EU will make cities slower and quieter?
No .. what I'm saying is LEAVE have conflated immigration with the EU and further conflated ghetto's with immigration and then created a narrative that if we stay in the EU these brown people will come and invade where YOU live until YOU are the only Welsh racial representative left.
My whole point is that if these slightly xenophobic people wish to say "but I don't want to live in the middle of a Somali (or whatever) estate" they get branded racist by REMAIN... and get greeted with open arms by LEAVE.
The truth is that the ghetto-isation is UK policy, nothing to do with the EU but one refuses to even address this "because they are racist" whilst the other promises "control of our borders"
I don't think it is productive to call someone racist and refuse to discuss immigration because "discussing immigration is racist" when someone's fear is a ghetto will be built next to them.
My personal opinion is we have loads of room for immigrants but we use the space VERY badly and create ghetto's and ghetto's are almost universally bad. I just don't blame the EU.
My reference to the "city culture" is not wanting to live in a ghetto isn't really any different to not wanting to live in a city or not wanting to live in a rural setting. Equally I quite honestly know people who are terrified by the prospect of not living in a city centre.
Well well I just checked BBC news and apparently a deal is done.
Let's see if PM BoJo has sold Britain out but since the detail is not known I am just going to wait and see.
One wrong move from PM BoJo and Tories then they will be history ...
Surely anyone in favour of a second ref will want the deal to be as crap as possible, no?
I would like the best deal possible (this Withdrawal Arrangement isn’t that) to be put up against Remain in a referendum. But the Brexitiers with any influence (be that MPs or their backers) will only allow a Withdrawal Agreement to be proposed by a “real Leaver”, so that isn’t going to happen, is it?
If we’re leaving, we need to do so with a Withdrawal Agreement… and we, ie the public, can only accept or reject what the politicians cook up, unfortunately. But we need to be given that chance, otherwise people who want us to Leave will be moaning about the manner of our leaving being unacceptable, just as much as those of us that think we shouldn’t leave at all.
Surely anyone in favour of a second ref will want the deal to be as crap as possible, no?
From the polls I've seen, amongst leavers, no deal is way more popular than May's deal (which I presume this is broadly similar to) so leavers are happier with the crappiest of 'deals'. At least if the deal isn't terrible then the vote will be between a good option and a not too terrible option. About as good as we can hope for
So apparently goods that enter NI that have no risk of entry into the ROI/ Single Market, will fall within UK customs regulations.
With the exception of Rangers strips and Union Jack flags, pretty much everything that enters NI is at risk of entering the ROI and Single Market.
This is laughably bad.
It's May's dog shit with some glitter sprinkled on it.