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Maybe. As far as I could tell, the only options that were ever on the table were No Deal, May's Deal (maybe as v1.01), or Revoke.
May had teams of people working on that backstop stuff - it clearly took absolutely ages to thrash out.
Hands Johnson with his Woo-Haa attitude and 50 Gallon Hat, improve on what it transpires with hindsight is looking more and more like a genuine professional attempt at a deal? Never going to happen. Statesmanship is not a game for dunces with jokes.
There are four options;
• No Deal
• WA with all Ireland Customs backstop (as UK & EU originally agreed)
• WA with all UK Customs backstop (as UK & EU agreed after DUP complained)
• Cancel or delay
That's 5, just sayin'
😉
Boris & Leo are at Thornton Manor, a mile from me.
Any requests?
Mays deal was a very good one considering her red lines. Giving her a UK wide exception to some EU rules to prevent an east / west boarder in the Irish was very generous indeed
Maybe Johnson is hoping that enough labour idiots will vote for Mays deal in disguise to get it thru 30 of them in Kinnocks group of idiots have said they would vote for it now rather than have a second referendum. ERG will vote for a deal that the DUP say is ok.
Trouble is I still cannot see anything that the DUP would accept that the EU would accept.
That’s 5, just sayin’
Fair enough, but cancel and delay aren’t that different really. If we cancel, the next government could just treat is as a delay and kick it off again.
Trouble is I still cannot see anything that the DUP would accept that the EU would accept.
If Brexit happens, it’s either No Deal or no DUP sign off.
I almost expect the 19th to be a vote on a WA that DUP can’t accept… amended by back benchers to include a referendum so that opposition MPs can vote with it instead of the DUP.
I think tho applying the rules of Kremlinology to the joint statement from Johnson and Varadker you can clearly see that actually nothing has changed and no progress made
She sat there all triumphant saying “we won’t be able to do that in 2 weeks”.
"What, come to Valencia for a week? You're probably right."
She's wrong about that anyway. All of the major UK carriers - for now at least - have said they won't reintroduce hiked-up EU roaming charges post-brexit. There's nothing to stop them from doing so in the future though.
Further to my post above - unless Johnson has agreed a boarder in the Irish sea and then the bit about consent means selling this to the DUP
After another failed attempt at a deal though a delay for 'more negotiations' is going to look pointless.
Juncker :
unless Johnson has agreed a boarder in the Irish sea and then the bit about consent means selling this to the DUP
The DUP are irrelevant. Even with their votes he's massively short of a majority in parliament even if every Tory votes for his deal. It can be the best deal imaginable for the DUP but if he doesn't convince the Tory rebels plus enough labour rebels then he's wasting his, and everyone else's, time
Also speech isn’t free, there is a responsibility that comes with it’s use that a lot of these people don’t like.
This goes much, much further than free speech. Far too many want their rights upheld but are not prepared to give one solitary toss about the rights of other people.
But they are racist. They discrimate on the basis of culture, origin and colour. Racist.
Steve is making a similar argument as Professor Eric Kaufmann of Birkbeck University. I haven’t really had time to grapple with his ideas other than whilst those who are educated might be able to understand the nuance in his ideas - they are something that could easily be used to gentrify the far right.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Whiteshift-Populism-Immigration-Future-Majorities/dp/024131710X
https://mobile.twitter.com/epkaufm?lang=en
He doesn’t believe in and routinely attacks civic nationalism which I find fairly scary. What makes me laugh is that he claims his ideas aren’t racist and he’s only trying to stop the spread of populism, but he thinks the west is going to become “beige”.
I find him dangerous because here - https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/interview-with-eric-kaufmann/ he comes across as less extreme and offers a different insight for what he presumes to be a different audience (just like he suggests centrist parties doing).
Statesmanship is not a game for dunces with jokes.
But unfortunately getting elected by the ‘great’ british public might be. The most depressing thing about this slide into populism is that it is weaponising stupidity. Even the likes of that arsehole Cummings are probably shaking their heads and saying “**** me, I can’t believe these idiots keep going for this”.
Statesmanship is not a game for dunces with jokes.
But unfortunately getting elected by the ‘great’ british public might be.
Boarding bob - part of the issue is that the ERG will only vote for a deal if the DUP say its ok. Johnson will be hoping to attract the stupid Kinnock bunch to vote for a deal - 30 of them have publicly said they will and they claim another 40 supporters
Thats why the DUP remain important tho as the ERG will vote alongside them
The DUP were the only party in NI against the Good Friday Agreement.
ERG members keep claiming, as recently as today, that the whole of Ireland will leave the EU.
No working Withdrawal Agreement will get support from either, they want the damage.
Anything other than No Deal probably has to get through parliament without their support.
It's become very obvious that the ignorant trope of 'the EU have weaponised the Irish border to kill brexit' hides the actual truth-
The DUP are using brexit to kill the GFA
Cougar
Clearly differentiating between immigrants and refugees might be a good place as any to start.
Or go one step further and call them all Ex-pats.
The frothing right have no problem with Ex-pats, so that's the problem solved. 🙂
Good point, well made.
"Nissan Europe 'unsustainable' in no-deal Brexit"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50000530
The gift that keeps on giving. Even if there is a deal I bet Nissan and others won't be here in 10 years.
The loons are out tonight on Question Time Extra Time on R5 - I mean callers, not guests or presenter(s).
F me - so much bollocks, random references to unrelated past events.
Certifiable idiots.
Makes me really angry that they're allowed to air nonsense views unchallenged.
It does amuse me when people complain about free speech on these platforms. That are owned by a corporation, that we use for free.
You are playing in their sandbox by their rules, if you don’t like it, tough.
Like on here 🙂
Yep and when they pull the accounts people like Tommy can’t spread their poison (or is it opinion).
Anyway Platform is unimportant if you promote hate speech it’s still hate speech and our current law doesn’t count hate speech as free speech.
Freedom of speech does not equal freedom from accountability.
Freedom of speech does not equal freedom from accountability.
So, where's the lying police when we needed them?
Or go one step further and call them all Ex-pats.
Please no, i always hated the word "Ex-pat". Can't we all be immigrants? 😀
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/11/british-brands-brace-for-trump-tariffs-eu
I see our special relationship is really paying dividends, who knew we’d get diplomats with a colonialist attitude towards the natives and increased tariffs that would be aimed at us British.
Britain doesn’t have any friends does it. 😀
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0GIGKYVeNCc
I see Rees-Mogg has raided Tesco's dustbin of discarded brand designs.
Exactly what I thought. (-: Tesco Value Brexit?
Cougar
It’d be interesting to know which bits of that lot your doctor friend or those totally not racist at all anti-immigration leavers you’re referring to are objecting against.
What you just quoted is made irrelevant when "racism" or "sexism" or whatever "-ism" is thrown out as a reason why something can't be addressed or conversely why something is pushed. It's actually got little or nothing to do with a legal definition and everything to do with perception.
You are also asking a very complex question for me to answer on behalf of others.
Did you actually READ the linked BBC article?
"Segregation at 'worrying levels' in parts of Britain, Dame Louise Casey warns"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38200989
Chuka Umunna, who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on social integration, agreed
that division had bred extremism and was "sapping our communities of trust".
So are we going to accuse Chuka of racism too?
Why not read the ACTUAL REPORT?
I may be wrong, I hope I am but I think it is a huge mistake to ignore the "our politicians don't listen to us" in any possible referendum with Remain on the table.
Or go one step further and call them all Ex-pats.
The frothing right have no problem with Ex-pats, so that’s the problem solved
Fundamentally different philosophy, even though one can change into another.
I've been both, my OH is an immigrant who started off as a ex-pat.
raybanwomble
Steve is making a similar argument as Professor Eric Kaufmann of Birkbeck University. I haven’t really had time to grapple with his ideas other than whilst those who are educated might be able to understand the nuance in his ideas – they are something that could easily be used to gentrify the far right.
I'm not really trying to argue either way, I'm saying ignore the "the politicans don't listen to us because we are not allowed to say XYZ at your peril"
My observations is that the far right are hijacking these people
However on a bit of reflection and in reference to the ex-pat post... I think I'm agreeing on the populism part.
What strikes me (for example) is that a report specifically commissioned to address exclusion in the UK can be labelled as racist due to it's findings.
If a sector of society practice FGM then identifying that sector is surely a requirement to address it? If sectors of our society have female literacy rates more indicative of dark age Britain than the 21C then IMHO it's not racist to identify that.
What I find weird coming from France (where I was an expat then immigrant) is that in general the populist response would be completely different. If someone in France published a factual report that 48% of women in a sector of French society can't speak French the public would be outraged this could be allowed to happen... whereas in the UK the populist public response seems to be to cry racism.
my OH is an immigrant who started off as a ex-pat.
?
my OH is an immigrant who started off as a ex-pat.
dogbone
?
What's not to understand?
She came to the UK with every intention of returning home and at some point settled.
I went to France on a temporary basis... like many places I lived and worked before but then unlike other places I'd been an expat at some point I put down roots... and had no intention of returning.
As things worked out I ended up back in the UK ... but there is a fundamental difference in how you think about somewhere you are working temporarily and somewhere you fully expect to stay.
Yup, that's how I'd look at it, ex-pats are temporary residents whilst immigrants are permenant.
[looks at figures for Eastern Europeans leaving the UK within 5 years of arriving]
So, do we have lots of “ex-pat” EU/EEA workers, or are they immigrant workers? Personally, I’d call them migrant workers.
So, do we have lots of “ex-pat” EU/EEA workers, or are they immigrant workers? Personally, I’d call them migrant workers.
I'd call them fellow european citizens.
It’s internal migration as far as I’m concerned as well. But most Brits think differently. They also have double standards about people migrating from the UK to elsewhere in Europe. Using the term “migrants” is just accurate, rather than loaded in the way both “ex-pat” and “immigrant” are.
What you just quoted is made irrelevant when “racism” or “sexism” or whatever “-ism” is thrown out as a reason why something can’t be addressed
That's as may be, but I've already answered that.
You are also asking a very complex question for me to answer on behalf of others.
Am I?
You said (paraphrasing) that your friend felt restricted by current "EU laws" (which are largely English laws) curtailing their freedom of speech. I'm curious as to what sort of thing they'd like to say that they currently can't. I appreciate that you might not know the answer to this if you didn't ask them, I just assumed that it'd a fairly obvious thing to query when faced with that sort of complaint.
Did you actually READ the linked BBC article?
I didn't, I have now. What would you like to say about it?
Why not read the ACTUAL REPORT?
Because I don't care sufficiently to read a 200 page document in order to point-score on the Internet. Have you read it? I bet you haven't.
... I'm rather thinking this needs its own thread. There's thread drift and then there's continental drift.
So, do we have lots of “ex-pat” EU/EEA workers, or are they immigrant workers? Personally, I’d call them migrant workers.
Dunno.... I personally think "migrant" is another class... and probably the type Leaver's object to most or conflate with other types?
To me "migrant" conjours up eastern european workers being bussed in to take ZHC jobs vs an expat who's going to come to do a job with some contract.
I can see why "migrants" coming in by busload to work essentially as slave labour is a problem.
However it's nothing to blame on the EU .. other EU countries specifically and legally prevent this and indeed do so using EU legislation not against it.
Despite the ultra right Rees-Moggs and mates dream of turning the UK into the modern slavery capital of Europe what they seem to have very successfully done is getting those who would otherwise be doing these jobs under a proper contract voting to remove the legislation that prevents them taking further steps towards out and out slavery.
There’s thread drift and then there’s continental drift.
We won't have any of this continental rubbish round here.
We'd much prefer proper English drift, like when we was nippers.
So, something very similar to a NI Backstop appears to be returning, which is a bit embarrassing to those people who voted against it last time, like, err..Boris.
What do they call it so they can pretend it's something new, rather than the Comebackstop?
So, something very similar to a NI Backstop appears to be returning, which is a bit embarrassing to those people who voted against it last time, like, err..Boris.
What do they call it so they can pretend it’s something new, rather than the Comebackstop?
This was always the only workable solution, initially proposed by May and shot down in flames by the DUP.
Potentially gives NI a competitive advantage into the future, which can only be a good thing. Will be warmly welcomed by businesses, farmers and the sensible people in all communities in NI.
Interesting to see what transpires In the next few days, it's difficult to lend much credibility to UK government sources that 48hrs ago were attributing Merkel with demanding a permanent CU for NI and no-deal was inevitable.
Permanent CU for NI, but by another name, is the only way to square the circle of “great new UK trade deals” (ignoring the loss of all existing ones and futures ones the EU has lined up) and sorting the Ireland issue.
Cougar
Subscriber
… I’m rather thinking this needs its own thread. There’s thread drift and then there’s continental drift.
I've always wondered why this forum has such an unusually restrictive approach to things that don't really matter in the slightest, like a bit of thread drift. It's an internet forum; you're not co-chairing a sub-committee for the implementation of administrative procedures in local government FFS!
JP
I’ve always wondered why this forum has such an unusually restrictive approach to things that don’t really matter in the slightest, like a bit of thread drift.
Really? I thought the opposite were true, threads veer wildly off-topic all the time and it's something that very rarely gets actively moderated. Thread drift is unusually unrestricted compared to other forums I've seen.
IMHO thread drift is a generally good thing, it promotes diverse discussions. The only time it's really an issue is when either a) someone is intentionally derailing a conversation, b) it turns nasty / personal / both in which case it'll probably get closed, or c) it drifts into a topic which is already being discussed elsewhere.
Indeed, we haven't moderated it here even - I was expressing an opinion as a user, was all. If it was a three-page thread rather than a 1873-page (and counting) one I probably wouldn't have said anything.
If it's something worth discussing then it would benefit from its own thread so that other people can find it and join in. I guess, it's a bit like being in the pub with a larger group of mates, you're talking about cars and your mate is talking about football, so you shift seats around and can have two parallel conversations without talking over each other. No?
So, where’s the lying police when we needed them?
Ah but you can lie to the people but not the Court.
I do find it odd thou that the media aren't actually questioning this very thing which has come out of a few of the legal cases around Brexit.
So, something very similar to a NI Backstop appears to be returning, which is a bit embarrassing to those people who voted against it last time, like, err..Boris.
TBH it took them years to figure that little beaut out and I think he voted for it last time.
Its more naunced thou if Boris gets the deal thru parliment then the Benn act doesn't apply and he can still block the other bits that need to be done so he could still drop us out with no-deal.
I't does sound a bit too machiavellian thou,perhaps the arch brexiteers are getting cold feet over no-deal.
Fundamentally different philosophy, even though one can change into another.
I’ve been both, my OH is an immigrant who started off as a ex-pat.
I'm an immigrant to one of the colonies. there's plenty of british people who describe themselves as ex=pats, despite residency, houses, etc - and they complain about immigration.
anyone who self describes as an ex-pat is overwhelmingly likely to be british.
why are they negotiating to end up back at Mays deal ?
why are they negotiating to end up back at Mays deal ?
It won't be May's deal, it will be similar as that is all there is. There was never going to be any other choice.
With Johnson having no majority he has no reason to keep the DUP on side, so they will be thrown under the bus. Watch for an all Ireland customs zone and GB being separated with the checks in the Irish Sea.
The question is whether the HoC votes for it or puts the proviso of a new referendum in place. The only other option is revoke and I don't see that happening. As for No deal.... it might be what Johnson's backers and Cummings want but that doesn't make it a good idea.
Rumour is he's annexing NI.
That will appease the EU but shortly be followed by Scottish independence.
Not sure how well that will go down with the DUP
More bluster maybe? No one knows with this clown of a pm.
Will he really destroy the UK?
Not sure how well that will go down with anyone, especially the Queen.
He's pretending to play brinkmanship but he's basically an iligtimate PM, he has no majority.
Any 'deal' has to get past the commons.
Will he really destroy the UK?
He will finish the job started by his Hero Churchill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Tans
His problem is if the DUP don't like the deal the ERG will also vote it down. Will enough labour idiots vote for the deal? I doubt it
But Churchill was basically pro Europe?
He's just inventing his own popularist narrative now, he's gone off programme for his paymasters agenda, as in 'feed them what they want to hear'.
It's worked for trump so far...
But Churchill was basically pro Europe?
Churchill was also a racist and responsible for a lot of deaths. Best description is complicated.
True, I'm not going to argue against that.
But that's the game boris is playing maybe? Cherry pick the highlights. Wining the war against the nazi movement.
Let's not talk about how it was a multinational collaboration, it was the plucky little English.
With Johnson having no majority he has no reason to keep the DUP on side, so they will be thrown under the bus. Watch for an all Ireland customs zone and GB being separated with the checks in the Irish Sea.
That would appear to be unlawful under one of the trade laws put together by Kate Hoey and some other headbangers from what I was reading earlier today. (It has to be balanced with a lot of comment on the post saying the author was mistaken. (Very polite legal types arguing is a thing of joy to read).
He will finish the job started by his Hero Churchill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Tans/blockquote >
Not sure if I follow? Please enlighten us?
The great thing about the whole 'we should have listened to the people who had legitimate concerns about immigration' argument is that, essentially, they are saying that where we went wrong was when we tried to make everybody think that being racist was wrong.
Because it could be argued that we have spent the last twenty years trying to Newspeak an inherent anti-racism via exactly the hated 'political correctness' that has sought to engineer a level of tolerance that had not previously been part of the British psyche.
The real question would surely be, if it was accepted that that aspiration had failed, why that was such a bad thing to aspire to in the first place, wouldn't it?
Aren't we better than this?
Its more naunced thou if Boris gets the deal thru parliment then the Benn act doesn’t apply and he can still block the other bits that need to be done so he could still drop us out with no-deal.
It won't get through. The best thing for the opposition is for Boris' deal to get voted against, Boris (or proxy) to request extension and then election Based on "Boris can't be trusted, he lied to you all about leaving on 31st October - vote for us"
Tories will lose votes to Brexit Party Ltd and who knows how it will work out when adding up all the constituencies
If as rumoured Johnson is now going for a NI to remain in CU and SM deal then of course Sturgeon will be putting her hand up and shouting loudly " me too please" and its very hard to see a logical reason why not.
This will then feed into the scottish feeling of being ignored and add one more bit of pressure towards the breakup of the UK
It also makes reunification of Ireland more likely.
JOhnson - the last ever PM of the UK?
I suspect what has happened here is Johnson is so weak and unable to master detail that he has simply told Vaderker that he will do something like boarder in the irish sea without thinking about what that means in parliament. Johnson is the master of telling folk what they want to hear.
Will the swivel eyed vote for their poster boy in parliament ?
They didn’t like the deal last time , why will they like it now?
Over the centuries we've seen Empires rise and fall. More recently we've seen the Eastern Bloc form and then start to break up. Czechoslovakia became one country and them split up in to two countries again in the space of less than 70 years.
The evolution of countries, the types of government they have, where their borders fall..... these things are all fluid when you look at the big picture from a distance.
zippykona
Subscriber
Will the swivel eyed vote for their poster boy in parliament ?They didn’t like the deal last time , why will they like it now?
Johnson doesn't want them to
This is a ruse, kill time until 31st,, pull a fast one on the Benn act (somehow). And then crash us out as he always wanted.
Will the swivel eyed vote for their poster boy in parliament ?
They didn’t like the deal last time , why will they like it now?
Well if it’s just a ploy to thwart the Benn act to then deliver no-deal, then they’d like it.
The numbers are very tight but it’s er a possibility and how is he going to spin it the election campaign if he gets a ‘deal’ but parliament doesn’t vote it thru although they’ve enacted a law to force him to extend if he doesn’t get a deal, that’s going to used as parliament wanting remain against the will of the people.
It’s all crazy bonkers tbh.
There's no way it'll get through, defeat it and it's election time with a very damaged Boris. Vote it through and it's election time with hero Boris. Even if the deal was better than current membership the opposition couldn't vote for it.
The great thing about the whole ‘we should have listened to the people who had legitimate concerns about immigration’ argument is that, essentially, they are saying that where we went wrong was when we tried to make everybody think that being racist was wrong.
It is possible to have concerns about immigration, or at least the effect of it on communities and local economies, without being actually racist. For example I am not particularly racist and I am pro immigration and free movement (having been a beneficiary several times) but I don't support the undermining of local businesses by exploiting poorer people from other countries.
There’s no way it’ll get through, defeat it and it’s election time with a very damaged Boris.
I don’t disagree as Brexit predictions are a flight of fancy but I’m not so sure that he’s going to get the damage everyone says.
Boris has been stopped by the evil remainders attempting to subvert the will of the people.
(Which may be actually be true 🙂
The Brexiters seemed to have shifted from the sunny uplands of how great it’ll be to ‘must respect will of the people’ regardless of economic and social cost and we’ve got the new Brexit religion where facts are irrelevant.(probably ought to put it on the next census)
We've already had people voting for meps whilst still crying unelected bureaucrats.
So… the Labour London Mayor says we should have a referendum before a general election, and the Labour Shadow Chancellor says we could have a referendum before a general election. Is this the start of a move…? Obviously the deputy leader of the party has been calling for this for a while, but probably best not to mention him as he upsets some people.
Anyway, seems a good way to outplay both the LibDems and Johnson. Any thoughts…? Ignoring party politics, it could also be the best way to decide what to do next on Brexit, no?
It does.
Sadly I reckon remain will lose again, because lies.
But if it is a shit as it looks like it will be, at least we tried/they were warned.
Guardian Britain less polarised Milton keynes
Interesting article and the Robots in the video are wicked.
It’s about the people on TV and online talking about a failure to “deliver” Brexit being met with riots.
Looks like Starmer is also behind a Withdrawal Agreement vs Remain referendum before an election. Looks like things are building up to that.
Sadly I reckon remain will lose again, because lies.
I expect Remain will lose as well. But if Johnson can get a Withdrawal Agreement that more than half of those who vote can support over remaining, so be it. Far better than him taking us out of the EU in a manner that he doesn’t have public consent for.
expect Remain will lose as well. But if Johnson can get a Withdrawal Agreement that more than half of those who vote can support over remaining, so be it. Far better than him taking us out of the EU in a manner that he doesn’t have public consent for.
Ah but the withdrawals only the the precursor to the shitfest ,it just buys more time before we get to whatever fantasy they’ve got cooked up for us.
Sadly I reckon remain will lose again, because lies.
It’ll likely be close but don’t forget changing demographics.
Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
Could be total bs but I’m not sure.
If Johnson either gets a deal ( or the deal is BINO) or does not leave on the 31st then Brexit party ltd will go full on gammon and split the tory vote cutting hugely the number of tory seats and benefiting the lib dems in the south and labour in the north
Polls are showing a clear majority for remain and have done for a while
Yeah, but it's the hope that kills you 😉