Forum menu
Nor are the opposition parties. They could form a government themselves *today*. They could have an election any time.
That's not actually the case. The PM gets to set or change the date of an election.
Wouldn’t it be in Labour’s favour to pivot now to…
- temporary government
- A50 extension
- WA vs Remain referendum
- revoke A50 or enter transition period
- general election
Nor are the opposition parties. They could form a government themselves *today*.
Which is exactly what Boris wants and he’s been goading them to do it for weeks.
Great. It gets a rubbish zombie government out and replaces it with a superior government *today*. If that pleases the rubbish zombie government as well then twomorrow we have 100pc agreement where today we had deadlock and conflict. Perfect.
Peroration may have been illegal but it did have the advantage of avoiding days of needless verbal bun fighting in the run up to the inevitable election.
You’re on the internet, actively commenting on a thing. If you don’t know what the thing is, please look up the word. On the internet.
And please, the “it might be illegal but it’s convenient - let’s do that!” attitude: that’s not the society I want to live in.
100 LibDem seats does not.
You reckon? With the entire Remain vote potentially going to them and the leave vote split two ways? Unless the election is delayed until after Brexit the Libdems will do incredibly well.
I do reckon. Even if share of the vote matches current polling, they’ll do well to take 20 or so seats off the Conservatives. If they take over 50 off them, that would probably mean the likes of JRM losing their seats to them. Unlikely, but I’d welcome it with dancing in the street.
Lol,,,
Boris Johnson has just lost his seventh consecutive vote in the Commons.
MPs vote 306-289 against a three-day recess to let Conservatives can go to the party conference in Manchester next week.
I do reckon. Even if share of the vote matches current polling, they’ll do well to take 20 or so seats off the Conservatives.
I can't convert votes to seats so I can't really debate seats sensibly with you. It's clear they're on for a ton of votes though.
From the numbers I've seen I think the LDs will be taking two thirds of their remain voters from Labour and 1/3 from the Torys. So it's not primarily the Tory seats we need to think about.
So mine is not a sophisticated analysis, but it's obvious the LibDems are sucking up votes from a massive pool all the other parties have walked away from - so when I see a very large number of predicted LibDem seats it seems entirely plausible to me.
lost his seventh consecutive vote
Magic.
If the lib /labs get in and pull the plug on brexit won't the Tories just campaign next time and forever more on a brexit vote?
Is brexit ever going to ****ing go away?
I don't think we deserve to be in the EU anymore. We are the retards who need expelling from school.
If Corbyn can do single market, freedom of movement I reluctantly feel that is the only hope for this country.
The "will of the people" will have been upheld ,the mainland will have scraped the shit off it's shoe and we can continue being the overblown loud mouths without hindrance to anyone else.
Yesterday, Survation conducted an online poll
So some of these polls give LD 10% and some 20%? Wide margin of error, that!
If the lib /labs get in and pull the plug on brexit won’t the Tories just campaign next time and forever more on a brexit vote?
Depends on the Brexit Party. If the Brexit Party go away the pressure on the Tories to shoot the Brexit Party fox will be gone and they can forget the whole thing.
So it comes down to have the people who voted for Brexit had enough of Brexit? Maybe. If some kind of LIb coalition was in power and revoked I think we might find the Brexiteers might have got fed up, and in five years time at the next election it's no longer an issue.
I fear it's more likely that this Pandora's box won't be closed for a very long time.
Thinking about how swing translates to seats, I cannot see how this information predicts anything even acknowledging the variation in swing. The traditional swingometer approach imagines the same swing across the country but because the country is geographically split remain/leave, so the swing to and from various parties is going to vary by region.
I wonder if it would be possible to create a calculator on the unverified assumption that the greater a constituency's remain vote, the more likely swing to Brexit Party from incumbent, and to LD for remain? I might try that...
Is brexit ever going to **** go away?
No.
Any transition period Brexit will result in “not real Brexit” campaigns.
Stopping Brexit will result in “denied our Brexit” campaigns.
No Deal Brexit will result in “punish the EU for the damage, don’t deal with them” campaigns.
Any one of those three is likely to be used to get control on the Conservative party (and a future government) if Labour is in power when we Leave or Revoke, even if a referendum is used to “settle” things.
– temporary government
Boris is playing at being the 'defender of democracy' with his calls for an election. Putting in an anti-brexit govt with no electoral mandate will be like pouring rocket fuel on the fire, and will probably strengthen him.
– A50 extension
– WA vs Remain referendum
This is already labour's position
– revoke A50 or enter transition period
Revoking A50 would be madness. If you think things are bad now, it will look like a picnic compared to that scenario. And it won't work anyway, all it does is suspend brexit til the next election when a tory/brexit coalition walk it and take us out unilaterally with no deal.
– general election
As above, it's already labour policy. It's the only thing that can resolve things. Of course it may not, we could get another hung parliament and minority govt on either side where it will still be deadlocked. In that scenario the politicians will have a justification for acting in what they think the best interests of the country are.
Even if share of the vote matches current polling, they’ll do well to take 20 or so seats off the Conservatives.
Agree. Polls are not much good when you add in the complexity of winning a number of seats as you say.
Where I live the tory vote was 67% with lib dem on 10%. The referendum result was 56% leave. I can't see the lib dems getting the seat where I live...
Sorry Dazh - my post was a suggestion to move to “do things in this order”. I can’t really reply to your points, because they read as if you missed that, and have addressed each step in isolation. I know Labour policy is for a referendum. I was suggesting that a change in the order of events may be required, considering the way Johnson is acting, and the mess that a general election based on an imminent Brexit may be for the country (and for the Labour Party).
The thing with polling for the next election is I expect some very regional results. LKib dems will do well against tories in the south but gain no traction at all in the north or Scotland. tories will be wiped out in scotland and the lib dems will do badly etc etc
I expect a hung parliament with tories and labour around equal but at least 50 short of a majority. 50 ish SNP. 20 odd NI seats is it leaving 30 lib dems at best.
Lib dems will try to put the tories back in with a promise of a second referendum but will be short of votes. Labour minority government with SNP doing S&C
Very very volatile tho. We could see a tory wipeout with their vote being split by brexit.
there is no chance of 100 lib dems. They have simply made themselves too unattractive to anyone north of watford.
Well just consider the first one then. Basically, an interim govt may hold up brexit temporarily but it strengthens Johnson (assuming the tories don't dump him). I don't really see it as an option now (whoever is PM) because it plays into his hands. Revocation even more so.
The only solution is a deal, then referendum. At the moment it looks like labour are the only ones seriously proposing it, although there is talk of the Kyle-Wilson proposal being resurrected. In the event of a referendum with a deal vs remain, a labour soft brexit deal is far more preferable to May's WA or whatever Boris can cobble together.
We cannot have an election until the extension is secured because if we have a VONC now Johnson manipulated things to ensure we just fall out of the EU on 31/10
I think a second referendum could settle things - if its properly decisive like 60/ 40 remain
We cannot have an election until the extension is secured because if we have a VONC now Johnson manipulated things to ensure we just fall out of the EU on 31/10
Bercow confirmed this afternoon that the earliest date for a GE is 5th November.
The Scottish Courts could, however, request an extension from the EU beyond 31st October.
Richard Burgon, the shadow justice secretary, is making a point of order.
He says the Commons library has confirmed to him today that the soonest an election could take place would be Tuesday 5 November.
This would be after the 31 October deadline for Brexit, he says.
He asks the Speaker, John Bercow, to confirm this. Burgon says he think it is important for the public to understand that, even if Labour backed an election now, it could not take place before the PM’s deadline for Brexit.
Bercow confirms that this is his understanding of the rules.
I think a second referendum could settle things – if its properly decisive like 60/ 40 remain
Indeed. Temporary government to hold a referendum, prelegislate so that on either outcome there is a clear path that will be followed, we leave on the terms set out before the vote, or we cancel Brexit. No interpretation. Then a general election.
If we have an election before a referendum… this “people vs” narrative will result in more Conservative seats than Labour ones, even if it doesn’t give Johnson his majority.
Edit: Unfortunately TJ, any referendum needs to stick with a straight 50% of those who vote threshold. Anything else will look unfair/rigged/bad because of the stupid terms of the previous one.
a labour soft brexit deal is far more preferable to May’s WA or whatever Boris can cobble together
Absolutely. But it won’t exist before a general election. Asking people to vote for promises of a better Brexit than Johnson can get (with a chance to stop it) isn’t going to get Labour the votes or seats they need to form a government. Getting a multi party government to hold the referendum to defuse (you can’t get rid of it completely) the Brexit issue, and then have a general election, could result in a Labour government, with or without Brexit. I think that would be in the interest of the Labour Party. Rather than fighting an election with Brexit imminent.
any referendum needs to stick with a straight 50% of those who vote threshold. Anything else will look unfair/rigged/bad because of the stupid terms of the previous one.
Even the sensible step of enfranchising 16/17 year olds (it is their future we're ****ing up, after all) would be decried as a stitch-up.
As would splitting the leave vote with a three option question (Remain/No Deal/Shit Deal)
Bercow confirmed this afternoon that the earliest date for a GE is 5th November.
What about the six week purdah period before that though?
Does that mean we get parliament dissolved again in a couple of days time..?
The problem with that is the electoral commission states that any referendum campaign should be 9 months - so thats a 9 month caretaker government. Whereas get a delay then election means election in a few weeks.
Kelevin - I agree 50% + 1 is what they have to do - but IF there is a decisive result that puts it to rest. so although 50%+1 will mean remain it will not be the end of it - but if its a 60+% remain then thats it - its all over.
I think a second referendum could settle things – if its properly decisive like 60/ 40 remain
Yes that would settle it. There would be a rump of pro-no-dealers still pissed off but they'd be in the minority. Even though it would be completely pointless as far as brexit goes, I think there's a good chance of a second ref confirming a deal rather than remaining. It'll be tight either way though, and no way will it be 60-40 either way.
The other upside of a referendum will be that at future elections, the brexit party will still be around campaigning for no deal, and probably taking seats off the tories, resulting in a labour controlled govt for as long as brexit remain an issue.
Asking people to vote for promises of a better Brexit than Johnson can get (with a chance to stop it) isn’t go to get Labour the votes or seats they need to form a government.
There's a risk of this yes. Labour will have to explain that if there's to be a referendum, there needs to be a deal on the table otherwise the question at the referendum will be no deal vs remain, which no one wants. Remainers may not like a deal, but there does need to be one to make this all work.
The problem with that is the electoral commission states that any referendum campaign should be 9 months
You think that would be stuck to, given the current circumstance?
I would imagine the timescale would be vastly reduced, dependent on if / whatever extension is granted by EU.
A referendum seems the only sensible way to put this to bed.
I suppose if we get an election first and Labour are majority, or work with LibDem, then their red deal referendum works too.
Personally I'm not sure I like the election first route, the support for the Tories madness hasn't eroded enough yet.
Also… if we stick to the extension>election>referendum path… how long does that take… even if we don’t have a hung parliment logjam after the election? How much patience do “the public” and all the other countries of the EU have?
There is not much differnce in total time
I dont think the 9 month rerferendum campaign is needed - but thats what the electoral commission recommends - and its recommendations are normally adhered to
9 months of ref campaign??? 😱😱😱
We've just had 4 years of ref campaign and most of the country are now experts on Brexit 🤪
I reckon they could have it done by lunchtime next Thursday !
there is no chance of 100 lib dems. They have simply made themselves too unattractive to anyone north of watford.
Cough. York Outer. Cough.
I'm amused that MPs have voted against a recess for the Tory conference. Mind you it doesn't take much to amuse me.
maybe the lib dems will take the odd seat in Henley of the north and such like places 😉 but no way on earth are they going to make the inroads in the north that they will need to gain the 50+ seats to offset the losses in Scotland and to get anywhere near 100 seats.
There is not much differnce in total time
Of course there is. An election before we get to kick off a referendum must take at least, what, 6 weeks? And there is every chance we will need a second election if a hung parliament results in no government, after a few weeks of trying to get something to work. So, maybe 4 months gone… and still no referendum kicked off…
I ask again, how much patience does “the public” and all the other countries, have? A delay of a year doesn’t look feasible to me, while all this campaigning goes on.
Cut it down. Get an extension long enough for a referendum. Hold a referendum. Leave with the Withdrawl Arrangement, or revoke A50, depending on the result. Then hold an election (where parties have to either propose what they want to happen at the end of the transition period, or they get to talk about everything else).
kelvin - 6 weeks for a ge and 9 months for a referendum - so depending on the order of events makes a max of 6 weeks difference in a 10 month process
I agree with you tho that the EU need this settled.
EU already said they'd consider a longer extension for e.g. a referendum. Ok so that was then, but they'd have to be mad to refuse us if we committed to one IMO.
I think they’d be mad to extend past May 2020… but I hope otherwise.
molgrips I'm pretty sure I heard the other day that some members would push for ONLY a longer extension, about 2 years.
Interesting. That might fuel any “they won’t let us Leave” nonsense though. We’d have to promise to play nice (which means no Johnson), but that applies to whatever happens I suppose.
Just watched the brexit party political broadcast on itv 😒
That might fuel any “they won’t let us Leave” nonsense though.
The UK: we want more time
The EU: sure, take as long as you need
Leavers: Y R U PUNISHING US?!!?1
Damned
Just watched the brexit party political broadcast on itv
Just saw it too. Targeted at the "just got on with it" demographic with zero thought to the consequences of any of the proposals. The upside is that the "watercolour pad" concept is an easy target for parody by the LBD crew (or any creative types)
We’ve just had 4 years of ref campaign and most of the country are now experts on Brexit
If only. Most of the country are economically illiterate on how country's economies work, let alone what Brexit will do economically, and after the PM and his cohorts displayed who and what they really are, still haven't put 2 and 2 together to realise what sort of Government could be running the country beyond a successful no deal Brexit.
We’ve just had 4 years of ref campaign and most of the country are now experts on Brexit
Yeah but we've had enough of experts.
I ask again, how much patience does “the public” and all the other countries, have? A delay of a year doesn’t look feasible to me, while all this campaigning goes on.
TBH needlessly rushing things is part of what's caused the issues to date, the original 3 year A50 deadline, originally trying to exclude parliament from drawing up the deal because Parliamentary process would have slowed things down, then Maybots minimal extension (the EU would have accepted a full years extension back in March, why didn't we take it?) the UK have constantly been holding ourselves to a series of artificial deadlines rather than taking more time to actually plan and figure out how Brexit might work before jumping in without a clue...
And that's all because basically the Gammons are an impatient lot who want to undo 45 years of integration with minimal care or consideration in the shortest possible timescale...
the EU would have accepted a full years extension back in March, why didn’t we take it?
That new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
And that’s all because basically the Gammons are an impatient lot who want to undo 45 years of integration with minimal care or consideration in the shortest possible timescale…
Because of that new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
I agree with you tho that the EU need this settled.
They really don't mind and have plans in place to deal with a stroppy neighbour for 10 to 15 years or more.
On a separate note after last night we need to tone the pejorative rhetoric back a touch. Gammons and remoaners should have no part to play in future civilised discourse. We as a nation need to be a little more British and a lot less hysterical and wound up.
I hold my hand up to being guilty of this in the past. Trying hard to be the change I want to see in the world.
They really don’t mind and have plans in place to deal with a stroppy neighbour for 10 to 15 years or more.
Have you forgotten already? Cameron assured us they’d start stuffing each other in ovens again without our calming influence.
Have you forgotten already? Cameron assured us they’d start stuffing each other in ovens again without our calming influence.
Yeah but it'd be Muslims this time - so a good portion of Brexiteers probably want that.
The footage of Cummings talking to an MP says it all … addressing concerns about death threats with “get Brexit done then” … it’s going to get so nasty … because any means is acceptable to the Leave team … being in government doesn’t change that for them.
Cummings a few hours ago.
This is a walk in the park compared to the referendum, we are enjoying this, we are going to leave and we are going to win," he said
Enjoying it. It's going to get very nasty and I don't just mean name calling I'm afraid.
James Cleverley on QT is making it sound like by adhering to the Supreme Court ruling, they’re doing us all a favour
They still don’t think the law actually applies to them.
They’re busy building their ‘enemies of the people’ election campaign
Cummings is the ultimate spin doctor, but only his own kind are buying the lies.
Boris (his puppet) has to ask for an extension.
The tories are basically trying to ramp up the pressure by calling the whole of parliament cowards, when it's the worst kept secret that they'd be playing right into the hands of the fascist tory party.
The tory conference, such that it is, could be quite fun to watch.
Boris Cummings seems think that the PM holds ultimate power.
The opposition parties are not taking the bait.
the EU would have accepted a full years extension back in March, why didn’t we take it?
No, Macron insisted on it being only 6 months.
Here's a thought that I never see mentioned - what if the EU refuses an extension? They've already said they would probably want to see an election or a new referendum as a condition. So we might not leave, so much as get kicked out, effectively. I'm remain, but I can't say I would blame them. The UK ran out of goodwill some time ago.
I live abroad. Europeans have got tired of this farce. If they mention Brexit at all, it's to openly take the piss. UK has become a tired joke.
I think consensus is they will grant an extension if asked.
I think they are now thinking much further ahead than the UK are. They will be preparing for dealing with a problematic "failing" state for years to come. Of course, the beautiful irony is that the UK will have to accept whatever the EU and other states demand of us,a true vassal state.
In thinking a decade from now we might still be squabbling over the trade deals we are still fighting over. A country never more divided in hundreds of years.
By that point we will be a much diminished state. A nominal military, a diminished services sector and most of the assets we have left will be foreign owned.
We will rightly be held up by the EU and other states as a totem of how quickly a developed country can descend when populism is allowed to run rampant.
I think the EU are far more concerned with medium to long term implications now. They will likely come out of this far more unified and probably wealthier as the UK bleeds money across the channel.
Historic times but for all the wrong reasons.
That new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
Highly unlikely as the required legislation is already on the UK statute book, in the case of some elements has been for years.
Dose anyone remember the Harry Enfield character of a German tourist who was apologising for "his country's conduct in the war" continuously? That is what we and our children will be doing for decades to come. This is a form of warfare for the Cummings crew.
the UK have constantly been holding ourselves to a series of artificial deadlines rather than taking more time to actually plan and figure out how Brexit might work before jumping in without a clue…
I've been involved in projects like this before. Project manager and engineering setout a time line. It will be tough job but doable. Senior management step in yelling "next week / month" so that they can tell the customer what they want to hear rather than realistic plans and timelines. You know it will be mess now all you can do is go along for the ride or quit. I am trying to think of a way to quit right now.
By that point we will be a much diminished state. A nominal military, a diminished services sector and most of the assets we have left will be foreign owned.
assuming "No deal" or a crap deal then Scotland will be independent state within the EU and the island or ireland will be united and in the EU.
Highly unlikely as the required legislation is already on the UK statute book, in the case of some elements has been for years.
Some of the less effective bits by my understanding - the key bits - money laundering thru london and the tax avoidence states like the channel islands, isle of Man and the "british" carribean states will still be able to facilitate tax avoidence
Everyone I know who has the chance of a non-UK passport is applying for it. Some of them were/are Brexies.
Sensible Brexit planning I’d say, but it tells you which way the wind is blowing.
Here’s a thought that I never see mentioned – what if the EU refuses an extension?
It wouldn't surprise me if BoJo had already been trying to do some secret deal with a minor EU member country to get them to veto an extension, with some sort of kick-back being offered.
I know violence isn't the answer but damn Cummings needed someone to wipe the smirk off his face during that confrontation with the MP
On a separate note after last night we need to tone the pejorative rhetoric back a touch. Gammons and remoaners should have no part to play in future civilised discourse. We as a nation need to be a little more British and a lot less hysterical and wound up.
Solidarity brother! I did say something similar a while back and got a less than polite response from many on here. As I have said many times, this culture war is poisonous, and threatens to be a bigger problem than brexit itself. We can either step back and take a breath, or dust off the pitchforks. I know what I prefer.
Compromise legitimises the brexie anti immigrant nativist narrative, it’s too late for that. I’d prefer to dust off the pitch forks.
And it’s not a culture war, it’s a counter insurgency against stupidity.
culture war is poisonous
Does this mean you’ll stop chucking snide middle class jibes about?
I’d prefer to dust off the pitch forks.
Pitch forks never achieved anything. You know they keep talking about entrenched views and growing extremism? That's why. You're better off saying nothing.
it’s a counter insurgency against stupidity
And it'll NEVER work and is making everything significantly worse. You honestly expect leavers to go 'oh ok then you're right' if you simply throw enough abuse at them?
That new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
Highly unlikely as the required legislation is already on the UK statute book, in the case of some elements has been for years.
Thing is it may be on the books but having a law and enforcing a law are slighlty different.
For example the Apple/Ireland tax thing.
Tax avoidance laws that are properly enforced is not what some people would desire.
I also have a feeling that the EU one is drafted better and wont allow for er loopholes.
Oh Dear 🙁
He said the Prime Minister could use a so-called "Order of Council" to avoid implementing the legislation until after 31 October.
Sir John said Mr Johnson could carry out the move through the Privy Council, meaning Parliament would not be able to block it.
I'm pretty sure that unless Boris is removed via VONC or just a vote rather quickly its game over.
(Edit - what he said ^)
Seems that Major may have spotted Johnson's loophole to force No Deal - anyone know enough about parliamentary procedure to know if the opposition can do anything to stop this happening?
And it’ll NEVER work and is making everything significantly worse. You honestly expect leavers to go ‘oh ok then you’re right’ if you simply throw enough abuse at them?
They will eventually, given enough stupidity lose any political legitimacy. They need to be goaded into doing that. Trump and his merry band of ****s are managing to back themselves into a corner, as will the brexiteers.
They can be trolled into doing something so horrific that they lose all moral authority.
Just for clarity, Cummings' comments amount to "we're bullying you, and if you let us have what we want, we'll stop"
Did I miss anything out?
He's a slimy turd isn't he?
Not defining what type of Brexit we'd get helped Leave win, but it's exactly why were in this mess
MPs have voted exactly as they promised to in their manifestos (excepting a few rebels & the ERG)
Tories said we'd leave with a great deal (no specifics) they say for several pages how great it will be
https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
Labour said we'd get a Norway/Swiss deal (their 6 tests are a combo of the 2+ a sprinkling of unicorn dust)
https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/
Cummings is lying, again
Jo Maugham has a twitter thread on John Majors comments:
Initially scary but ends on a positive note.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1177308131644325888
Donate to the Good Law Project
They can be trolled into doing something so horrific that they lose all moral authority.
And then what? Everything comes out lovely? Don't be daft. If you face down the bully and manage to beat him in a fight, he just comes back with more mates and ambushes you.
It's not the way, dude.
DAG says No
EDIT
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1177498386968150016