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Aye - the pundits all seem to be saying its impossible to second guess the judges. a leak from no10 thos after yesterdays evidence was "we are done for"
I wouldn't bet either way. Today seems to be going more the government way
oldandpastit
Just for fun I counted up the roads crossing the scottish border - around 20 half of which are very minor roads
24 I counted. Slow day at work.
Watching the Supreme Court proceedings on telly. Let's have a book on when the lad with the green lanyard is going to fall asleep. He's employing every stay awake tactic there is.
Reading the summing arguments on both sides and given obvious bias to me the government side arguments seem the weaker
How many roads actually cross the border?
People are not going to be smuggling vast amounts of goods across the empty wastes of the Cheviots on some cheeky footpaths. It’s impractical, and could be caught pretty easily.
A hard border doesn't NEED to mean customs etc. on every road. TBH lots of borders exist where you can just drive across if you have nothing to declare (plenty Canada/ US or Sweden and Norway for example) but if you do then you have to take specific roads. A similar type of thing could be used between England and Scotland. (A point to note being that Norway is part of Shengen but a bigger point probably being that they are open to the EU not combative)
This is a problem with NI/RoI because of
a) the specific terms of the GFA...
b) Boris promised to take control of our borders and has been combative since ... well before he was a politician
Its a huge problem for Boris if you believe this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41412561
"Whether it is number plate recognition or a driver's smartphone app telling customs everything in a lorry has been cleared, the technology needed to make a border work smoothly is not exactly rocket science. The real challenge is bringing together politicians, customs officials and businesses from different countries to allow it to launch successfully."
c) the terms of the WA expressly forbid a border in Ireland.
d) anyone attempting to construct such a thing is likely to get shot at.
e) there's roads which criss-cross in between NI and ROI, you'd need a border every ten yards in some places.
This isn't the road I'm thinking of, but it's the same idea:
Any differences in tariff between the EU and UK means there's the potential for smuggling across the NI border - it was rife before the GFA and helped finance the various paramilitary organisations. However, having a different / exceptional tariff regime between NI/Eire fails WTO requirements - you cannot give preference to anyone, you have to offer it to everyone - bit of a catch 22 when staying within the CU would make life so much easier...
Price worth paying.
https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/business/brexit-blamed-nottinghamshires-second-biggest-3331357
Fake News, Project Fear.
Cougar
c) the terms of the WA expressly forbid a border in Ireland.
d) anyone attempting to construct such a thing is likely to get shot at.
e) there’s roads which criss-cross in between NI and ROI, you’d need a border every ten yards in some places.
These are all point A....
dovebiker
However, having a different / exceptional tariff regime between NI/Eire fails WTO requirements – you cannot give preference to anyone, you have to offer it to everyone – bit of a catch 22 when staying within the CU would make life so much easier…
I'm really commenting on a border between Scotland/England as point A is inescapable between the RoI and NI. There is no reason that Scotland as part of the EU couldn't have a similar border just because it is impossible in NI.
Why is Dovebikers point irrelevant to Scotland? If it won't work in Ireland for various technical and legal reasons then there won't be some magic way to make it work in Scotland.
squirrelking
Why is Dovebikers point irrelevant to Scotland? If it won’t work in Ireland for various technical and legal reasons then there won’t be some magic way to make it work in Scotland.
The legal reasons pertaining to NI/RoI and the GFA don't pertain to Scotland/England
The whole agreement rests on there being no hard border, technological or otherwise...
I'm not saying I think this is what should happen... I'm just pointing out the situation is different.
Technology wise this isn't even hard if you accept some permeability across the border... it's not the end of the world if people cross the border just to go shopping... (half of Switzerland does that) cows and sheep wander in ignorant bliss... people commute daily in and out of Shengen between Denmark and Sweden...
What matters really is if a company in Barlick sell to a shop in Glasgow and that the paperwork is done and duty paid but that
- explicitly
can't happen between the RoI and NI.
Or Scotland/EU can just implement a "hard hard" border like they do with many other countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret
So it seems now 'we' are trying a bit of 'divide and conquer'. Well, 'we' have tried virtually every other underhand technique there is, so might as well give this a crack. Although 'we' have tried a bit of this already with Varadkar and the remainder of the EU.
How low can we go? With every turn made (in a desperate attempt to avoid confronting the core issue), 'we' look more mendacious and the EU more statesmanlike.
I really, really would have loved to see the look on Juncker's face when Frost or Barclay or whoever asked the EU to trust a Johnson government to act in good faith. I hope they just smiled and said "with the greatest respect, are you just having us on now? That Beadle bloke isn't about to appear is he?"
The madder the Hulk gets, the stronger the Hulk gets
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099582990159879
Technology wise this isn’t even hard if you accept some permeability across the border… it’s not the end of the world if people cross the border just to go shopping… (half of Switzerland does that) cows and sheep wander in ignorant bliss… people commute daily in and out of Shengen between Denmark and Sweden…
Er, all of those countries are in the Schengen area. Besides which, Europe has enforced external borders, if we gained independence and EU membership this would cause customs problems that can't just be ignored.
I'm ignoring the Good Friday Agreement completely here, that's nothing to do with this scenario. I'm talking about enforcing an external EU border on our only land border. Assuming the UK went full "no deal" that cannot be resolved with wishful thinking.
Agreed
No deal or remain
(Only logical outcome is Norway type deal, but the brexiteers are still nutters & Johnson terrified of farage for that one)
MPs seem “a bit” upset about it all Bob. Probably best in another thread though.
I saw that as well, waiting for our resident Labour reps to square that circle.
Well just saw my first Brexit advert for travelling abroad...
Fk me absolutely fk all information other than taking insurance And your passport (er like you’ve being doing like for eva)
I saw that as well, waiting for our resident Labour reps to square that circle.
Do it in the right thread and I might reply 🙂 (it's raining and I've nowt else to do)
Just watcing last week's Question Time (yeah, it's that bad!). Amazing watching Ed Davey floundering and being eviscerated from all sides and laughed at by the audience about the Lib Dems ludicrous revoke policy. What I didn't know is that it isn't revoke in all cases, it's only revoke in the event that labour or the tories have not already provided a new referendum, and if in that case the public then voted for a lib dem govt, then they would revoke. Does this sort of simple flow-chart style policy sound at all familiar?
It’s only revoke without first having a referendum… if there hasn’t already been another referendum. Is that really that odd? Seems like a tautology to me.
Have they said that they want the result of any referendum to be “Remain”, and that the party will campaign for that? That’s what I’d like to hear from any party wanting to avoid the damage of Brexit.
Is that really that odd?
About as odd as trying to get a better deal than the tories abject failure and then holding a vote on it. Anyway, what was striking was how unpopular it appeared to be with the QT audience. With one policy the lib dems seem to have turned themselves from the democratic champions of remain to enemies of democracy.
I avoided watching it … please tell … what policy was “popular” with the QT audience … ?
Well just saw my first Brexit advert for travelling abroad…
Fk me absolutely fk all information other than taking insurance And your passport (er like you’ve being doing like for eva)
There isn't any other information to give, maybe your EU health card won't work and be prepared to queue forever in the non EU immigration line.
Before travelling “check online to see if your passport is valid” … cheers multi-million pound advertising campaign.
Caroline lucus absolutly tore the lib dem policy apart. Quite rightly. How on earth does that have broad appeal and be healing to a divided country. good job they are not going to have any power.
Surprised this place hasn't imploded today after Corbyn on Marr. It's really a shame that the labour party isn't in a place like the lib dems where they can make promises without ever having to implement them, and only have to worry about winning votes from one section of the population. Look at it this way, has there ever been a leader of a party who has left open the possibility, before an election, that a government lead by them might not support something they've created?
It’s really a shame that the labour party isn’t in a place like the lib dems where they can make promises without ever having to implement them
Labour won't ever have to implement its policy either:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
That red line has a trend that says Labour policy (or lack of it) has allienated about 40% of its voters..
Labours “lets ban private schools and seize their property” idea is going to harm them, not help them - it plays into the media’s “look guys....****ing commies!” narrative.
Any chance of putting that in another thread?
Labours “lets ban private schools and seize their property” idea is going to harm them, not help them – it plays into the media’s “look guys….**** commies!” narrative.
That’s the labour narrative, not the media narrative. This is on top of confiscating 10% of companies, locking up political opponents and crashing the economy.
Any chance of putting that in another thread?
+1
14 PTS behind Tories &
Still
Can't
Back
Remain
and crashing the economy.
TBF that seems to be a winning strategy for No Deal Johnson ! It's all the Brexit party ltd fanboys seem to want
Do it in the right thread and I might reply 🙂 (it’s raining and I’ve nowt else to do)
It was already asked yesterday.
Spin about Trump&Johnson whipping up a quick and easy trade deal is starting up again it seems (ignoring the Ireland question of course)… I’ve only seen a Sun article so far… so no link to post here. Will Johnson be pivoting to the “No Deal means more deals” position of the Brexit Party soon, rather than waiting ‘till an election is called…?
The other thead was closed becuase it should be here apparently so:
This is the sort of thing a country should be truly ashamed of:
It’s one of the things that means I want either no deal or remain, nothing in between that might allow the city to continue to provide money laundering and fraudulent “services” without EU judicial control.
It’s one of the things that means I want either no deal or remain, nothing in between that might allow the city to continue to provide money laundering and fraudulent “services” without EU judicial control.
I'm not sure no deal would have that effect.
No deal means Britain losing its EU banking passport.
I've been engaging on and off with a leaver on Facebook who I nominally know in real life. They've been posting pro-leave propaganda for months, what has the EU ever done for us, and all that. They've just posted now, they've got caught up in Thomas Cook going pop, lost the holiday of a lifetime. I couldn't resist an open net so I've just replied.
"You won't be out of pocket. The EU Package Travel Directive (2015/2302/EU) protects European travellers for cancellation, repatriation and refunds. Lucky you didn't go on holiday next month instead, really."
I know, I'm a bad man.
keep us informed of the response
No deal means Britain losing its EU banking passport.
Preumably could still "continue to provide money laundering and fraudulent “services”" for non-EU clients?
I know, I’m a bad man.
You also look look like you might be a bit..you know...foreign.
You’ll be first up against the wall when we’re free of the EU restrictions protecting vaguely Mediterranean looking types.
keep us informed of the response
It was actually his wife that posted, with him tagged in. All I've had so far is a thumbs-up from her.
No deal means Britain losing its EU banking passport.
You realise bankers aren't very popular in some quarters of the UK, don't you?
You and I are good neo-liberals so we understand the benefits of banking to the Uk but a vast number of leave voters did so specifically to give bankers a kick in the teeth.
All the UK banks have set up EU entities to keep their EU passporting. Only took a couple of years, millions of pounds for the project and billions moved to eg Ireland.
Corbyn still on the fence I see.
No news there, what's really important is the SC ruling tomorrow.
Will they set precident to legalise a dictatorship in boris, or will they dismiss the government appeal?
And also this is just judgement on whether the courts have a say, rather than whether boris lied to the Queen? I thought it was a two part argument which would require a seperate court case?
If the ruling goes against PM Bojo tomorrow then there is a likelihood that PM Bojo will have to resign. Thus will make him the shortest PM in office in British history?
Woohoo more entertainment 😄
rather than whether boris lied to the Queen
That issue can never be decided by a court because the Queen will never say what Boris told her and nobody will ever believe Boris's version of what was said.
Johnson won't resign
He's too busy toadying up to Trump saying 'only trump can get a deal'. - even tho there was deal trump tore it up coz he was jealous of Obama
But we are America's bitch now , welcome to brexit britain
it's judgement time...
Hurdle one - they can rule on it...
I think he's about to lose part 2...
Sounds very much as if they are going to rule against the government.
Fingers crossed 🙂
All the UK banks have set up EU entities to keep their EU passporting. Only took a couple of years, millions of pounds for the project and billions moved to eg Ireland.
Except, the rules say you can't offer services to EU customers from outside the EU even with a passport.
It's a bit more nuanced than that but we've actually had to close some UK offices and move the work to our other EU entities. Right PITA.
So - what next for Cummings and Co...?
Hale says the court is “bound to conclude that the decision to advise her Majest to prorogue parliament was unlawful”.
YEEEESSSSSS!
Ooft. What a ruling!
Boris will of course shrug it off
Wow. Prorogation void!
And we have a speaker with no need to worry about keeping his job. The commons can sit again ASAP if MPs want it.
BoardinBob
Subscriber
Ooft. What a ruling!Boris will of course shrug it off
this
is that 9/9 or 8/8 now he's lost? I've lost track...
Johnson is now in a completely untenable situation. Legally bound to ask the EU for an extension, found to have acted unlawfully and with his entire strategy in tatters.
He may shrug it off but he is so damaged by this. No power left at all.
wow
So parliament back to work then?
Im fairly sure labour would like to pretend their conference never happened
Libdems have done theirs
Tory one will now be all about Johnson lying to the queen
If you're the kind of person who can get the taxpayer to pay for your mistress, then telling lies to the Queen shouldn't stand in your way.
He may decide to cling on and see what happens, but some of the followers must be swayed by this?
Maybe I'm hoping too much!
"Parliament has not been prorogued, she says.
She says it is for the Speaker to decide what happens next."
Nice to feel a bit of a winning glow. Had a feeling that it might go the way of Miller et al, but all decisions being unanimous. Wowzers. 😀
I suspect Bercow will recall parliament immediately. most tories will boycott it to go to conference, everyone else has a field day passing laws in the absence of the tories.
Fantastic result and unexpected that they went so far!
Chickens home to roost. Lovely.
A sage and onion job for BoJo.
I'm about to go to a shit meeting but this has cheered me up immensely.
I suspect Bercow will recall parliament immediately.
I can't imagine him doing anything else.
If they don't turn up will they get their wages docked or get put on a diciplinary for unauthorised absence like the rest of us would?