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brexit is the best thing that couldve happened to the SNP after indyref1 defeat
Th poll backs up what I said a couple pages back. If Johnson doesn't get it done by 31st October as he promised, a lot of tory voters will switch to Brexit Party thinking they will somehow get it done (even against the same opposing people..)
The obvious problem is that BXP and CON could then join together for the majority.
Ouch squeeze is on for the DUP , who are already worried about losing a seat to Alliance
(Also smart for SF as alliance threatens them, tho not to same degree)
That doesn’t smack of desperation at all, does it?
How’s Dom’s ‘strategic genius’ looking today?
binners
That doesn’t smack of desperation at all, does it?How’s Dom’s ‘strategic genius’ looking today?
My mind is blown maybe there really are a lot of people who this appeals to?
The UK government have resorted to sending dead animals to people, for the purpose of advertising?
Absolutely disgusting, if that's true.
KFC are threatening to sue the Tory’s for breach of copyright unless they pack it in.
Whoever does their social meedya is also having some fun winding the Tory’s up 😀
https://twitter.com/kfc_uki/status/1169151825725087744?s=21
That’d top off a great week for who the brilliant John Crace is now referring to as Dom and Dommer
HoL has backed the Prevent No Deal bill.
https://metro.co.uk/2019/09/06/house-lords-approves-bill-block-no-deal-brexit-10699603
Expect to see them on the front page of the Express tomorrow, calling for the unelected undemocratic traitors of the people to be sacked off, or some such.
Amazing what having no seat to lose does to ones principles isn't it?
Scotroutes - the whole "sod the English" wing of the indy movement are frankly not worth listening to. Nationalism isn't something that's cuddly when it applies to your own beliefs, one nationalist is as bad as another. Note I'm going to distinguish between nationalists and pro-indy at this point as the motivations of each are different even if the end goal is the same.
Unless he wins an election in which case he’ll have 5 years and all his rebels are gone.
Good reason not to agree to one then. Let the idiot stew.
There is a growing section of the Scottish independence movement that is increasingly disappointed at the amount of energy the SNP are focusing on Brexit and who would likely think “why are we choosing which colour of government the English get rather than leaving them to get on with it”.
Ultimately it would not be in Scotland's interests to remain in the EU with a no deal England as its main trading partner. Scotland's economy will be in a precarious enough state even without having a hard border to the South
All Johnson’s rebels aren’t gone at all.
There are quite a few of the less unhinged members of the Tory party who are appalled by what he’s up too and how he’s treated their 21 colleagues. I doubt they’re feeling too loyal right now to someone who is essentially a school bully
There’s talk of a Tory/Farage coalition in the event of a hung parliament, but how many Tory MPs would balk at the idea of that?
Ultimately it would not be in Scotland’s interests to remain in the EU with a no deal England as its main trading partner. Scotland’s economy will be in a precarious enough state even without having a hard border to the South
Replace the word “Scotland” with “Ireland”… that gives you a feel for a more pressing problem that Wangerland is forcing onto its other neighbour.
There’s talk of a Tory/Farage coalition in the event of a hung parliament, but how many Tory MPs would balk at the idea of that?
That's only going to work in the event of an election agreement where they don't field candidates in the same constituency. Can you see the Tories doing that?
The way the Tories are behaving this week, they may well be picking up Faragists, but I think they’ll have lost far more of their former voters to the Lib Dem’s.
They’ve basically become the Brexit party. They think that will win them an election, equating the opinions of Tory voters with that of their membership. I think (or at least hope) that they may be in for a bit of a shock with how many voters find see this toxic nationalism for what it is and simply will not vote for it
What’s clear is that when Johnson said ‘**** business’ he really meant it. I can’t see that playing out well for them.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/johnson-bulldozes-britain-deeper-into.html
Good summary of the week so far.
Columnists loving this week
Hardly scientific I know but I’m getting worried that 75%+ of people the BBC News ask respond “just leave now” regardless of how they originally voted.
Exactly!
So labour lose 2 percent of the vote to the brexit party and the conservatives lose 7.
Hahah, so much for the scare stories that labour would be decimated if they were seen to be thwarting brexit.
Hardly scientific I know but I’m getting worried that 75%+ of people the BBC News ask respond “just leave now” regardless of how they originally voted.
No, 75% of the people they show say just leave now. They usually show one or two of each side, to be representative - rather than giving an indication of numbers.
DavidBelstein
Member
Hardly scientific I know but I’m getting worried that 75%+ of people the BBC News ask respond “just leave now” regardless of how they originally voted.Exactly
I'm very worried coz if we crash out with no deal those people are going to be really upset when the realise that it means we repeat the last 3 years for the next 10 years trying to negotiate 40+ FTAs & our future relationship with the EU from a position of even.less leverage!
I know people don't like detail, but are they this unaware of what no deal means?
After this week, anyone still supporting no deal need their head checked. They deserve all the insults coming their way.
Surely Leavers can see that no deal would be catastrophic.
Kimbers, I've talked with a lot of people - family, friends and work colleagues - about this whole debacle; it's both depressing and concerning how many appear to have a very narrow view and limited understanding of the risks attaching to no deal/leave now and sod the consequences.
I think the people I refer to are a fair representation of the UK electorate - by gender, age, employment status, standard of education.
I don't understand why those who don't have a wider view or understanding don't have any (apparent) interest in gaining a better understanding.
We have (almost) no leverage now with the EU and what we do have will rapidly evaporate; the UK is nothing more than a side-show to the EU but it is a food source for the US to gorge on.
Future looks bleak unless MPs with vision bury Johnson under a runway at Heathrow, show Cummings for what he is - a fly feeding on shit - and take control of the Westminster agenda.
Referendum 2 with the result to be binding; voting questions being very carefully drawn - no more of the simplistic and infantile binary options last time around.
kelvin
Subscriber
Ultimately it would not be in Scotland’s interests to remain in the EU with a no deal England as its main trading partner. Scotland’s economy will be in a precarious enough state even without having a hard border to the South
Replace the word “Scotland” with “Ireland”… that gives you a feel for a more pressing problem that Wangerland is forcing onto its other neighbour.
Indeed.
Either way the damage is bad - however I believe an independent scotland in the EU would be a nicer place to live than a UK out of the EU.
I know people don’t like detail, but are they this unaware of what no deal means?
Scarily - yes. They imagine it's a cutting of ties, the divorce is wrapped up and we go sailing off free and able to get off with any other country we want.
I think part of the problem is that it's all been about "trade" and since no-one understands trade deals and the faact it can take TEN YEARS to sort one out, they're just like "oh, we'll carry on buying stuff".
No care about things like standards, import/export, just-in-time distribution, exchange rates, tariffs but beyond that it's about everything else that isn't "trade" like workers rights, human rights, environmental protection, collaboration....
Ad what's even more worrying is that no-one has gone "hmm, we were promised sunlit uplands, control and sovereignity and what we're actually getting is dire warnings about shortages and vague promises of "it won't be that bad... what's gone wrong with this?"
It's become a cross between religion and a conspiracy theory now and they're two things you just can't argue against.
Tbf a colleague in work declared at lunch this week she wants a second ref & a chance to vote remain
She's a surgeon & has had a fair bit of stick from her colleagues, but it's Johnson that has pushed her over the edge (that & the hospital having to ration cancer drugs & antibiotics again in prep for no deal)
You'd think a surgeon would have at least a vague peripheral understanding of how supply chains linked directly to thier job function?
I’ve met medics who still think vaccines cause autism and one of the thickest people I’ve ever had the pleasure of meeting (at a Wadham college bop I was invited to) was training as a neurosurgeon.
Being a clinician is not a vaccine against being a complete and utter ****wit. Just as the best education in the world can make you an arrogant, pompous, close minded terminal bore who is clearly suffering from the Dunning Kruger effect (Rees Mogg).
The only education that mildly protects you against it is an evidence based scientific education.
You don't need to be well educated you just need to be able to recognise someone who knows what the **** they are talking about.
You’d think a surgeon would have at least a vague peripheral understanding of how supply chains linked directly to thier job function?
It gets better, her husband is polish (also a surgeon) and she's upset about the way poles have been denigrated post brexit!
She's actually a really nice person, just easily led, she recently cycled from London to Paris on the velo vert , I found her some really good deals on hybrid bikes, she totally ignored me and spent £500 on the worst bso you can imagine, which she admitted was a nightmare after the first day!
The opposition parties need a plan for this election before they let it be called… they can not go into it thinking it will be a normal election… if they do, they will get hammered…
https://twitter.com/peterkgeoghegan/status/1170047597916172289?s=21
Exactly! They should know what they’re dealing with from the referendum campaign. They’re dealing with extremists to whom nothing is off the agenda as far as tactics are concerned
Every one of them needs to watch ‘The Great Hack’ to see how this is going to play out. This time will be even worse.
If they think they can go into this as a normal election campaign then they’re taking a knife to a gunfight where everyone else has fully automatic assault rifles and rocket launchers
Given the dithering 1970’s throwback presently masquerading as the leader of the opposition, it hardly inspires confidence.
Maybe someone could put ‘The Great Hack’ on Betamax for him?
I think any election will be totally unpredictable given the way brexit splits across party lines, FPTP voting, and that most often the Lib Dems compete with the Tories, not Labour.
Also interesting will be what happens when an election is called and the broadcast media have to give equal coverage to opposition parties. Of course, the brexit “party” isn’t actually a party
Yes, as I say, they could end up propping up an unpopular government, they don’t want to, but when you think it through for the small parties it’s sometimes impossible to avoid.
Would be very surprised if the SNP prop anyone up in Westminster unless they have a cast iron plan.
One of the key arguments for independence is we in Scotland can't influence Westminster because whoever we vote for doesn't get into power.
A power sharing or supply and confidence arrangement wipes out that argument instantly.
I simply see the SNP using the 50 ish seats they win as grounds for pushing for another indy vote as that's clearly their mandate. They don't want to get into the dangerous ground that almost wiped out the lib dems following their coalition
Hahah, so much for the scare stories that labour would be decimated if they were seen to be thwarting brexit.
Only it hasn't actually happened yet, so it's not really a fact.
The opposition parties need a plan for this election before they let it be called… they can not go into it thinking it will be a normal election… if they do, they will get hammered…
That will be recognised I'm sure but people will also vote on multiple factors.
For instance Farage's attitude towards the NHS doesn't do them any favours.
Equally Boris's police electioneering has been supported by the slightly older LBC demographic - as a good thing.
I'm also sure the Sun will find pictures of Corbyn near Mugabe's favourite haunt (despite Thatcher hanging with him.)
Will be getting some Labour posters in this time.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1170117064159350784?s=19
It's only a Poll ...
Where have tinge gone?
Can we take from that poll that Dumbojo’s current stance isn’t working?
What’s the plan now? Go even more ludicrous or try to polish May’s turd?
What’s the plan now? Go even more ludicrous or try to polish May’s turd
Ludicrous mode on tbh all the dying in a ditch rhetoric sorta points this way, he’s lining up people vs parliament and I’m expecting some great phrase similar to the ‘take back control’ to surface when the election starts.
Given the dithering 1970’s throwback presently masquerading as the leader of the opposition, it hardly inspires confidence.
Thanks for the reality check binners. For a moment we were losing sight of the basic fact that it's all Corbyn's fault.
Do we really have a PM who openly does not respect the rule of law? He’s said he won’t resign so where does this leave us as a country?
Mr Johnson may be forced to defy the law rather than ask for a new Brexit extension, according to a letter sent to Tory Party members.
The Daily Telegraph reports that Mr Johnson wrote to party members on Friday evening, saying: "They just passed a law that would force me to beg Brussels for an extension to the Brexit deadline. This is something I will never do."
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-prepared-to-defy-new-law-on-no-deal-brexit-11804118
The fact that a Rogue prime minister, who’s presently committing constitutional outrages on a daily basis, actively wants a general election, because theirs a good chance it will deliver him a majority, is an absolutely shameful reflection on the ‘effectiveness’ of the Labour Party as a credible opposition
That’s the reality
Off he'd better **** then. I'm sure even the remnants of the Conservative Party don't think that a PM who openly defies the law is a good look heading into an election. I imagine the Queen would have a few rather pointed questions for him too.
Opposition parties must be salivating at the thought of fighting an election against the likes of Sajid, Raab or one of the other Brexit bobbleheads. Or even a leaderless party in England and Scotland?
I must admit that after the last three years, the current travails of the Tories are providing a bit of light relief.
The fact that a Rogue prime minister, who’s presently committing constitutional outrages on a daily basis, actively wants a general election, because theirs a good chance it will deliver him a majority, is an absolutely shameful reflection on the ‘effectiveness’ of the Labour Party as a credible opposition
If only it were that simple.
1) You could argue that it doesn't matter what position Labour take - remainers have an inbuilt dislike of Jezza. You are a prime example. Thus the polls are not likely to reflect any logical moves by Labour. Like we've said it's driven by emotion.
2) Polls are laggy and don't necessarily reflect the actual voting position when in an election.
3) The opposition is effectively split across remainers/leavers/right/left.
4) The push against Brexit by the electorate just isn't strong enough unfortunately. Otherwise we wouldn't be here.
Libs being remain and to the the right will attract and repel some Labour voters.
It’s only a Poll …
Where have tinge gone?
They're lib dems now, chukka is standing against mark field, he of then grab a protestor by throat & father Liz trust's love child fame, which would be great to see, but would possibly take a remain alliance to see it not go Tory , it was one of the.most remain seats in the country, so chunks might be able to do it
The problem is that you only had to listen to Emily Thornberry tying herself in knots on QT the other night to see that Labour’s Brexit policy is a rambling incoherent mess - their own
Leader wouldn’t necessarily campaign in support of a Brexit deal he himself negotiated?
Any upcoming election will be fought on social media with clear concise messages. Dom and Dommers message is as clear as day. Labour’s takes 5 minutes to explain all the caveats and ‘if’s..
IMO Tories are wrong to make this Boris vs Corbyn. Corbyn will not be as useless as they are portraying him come election time and this bounce/ momentum will be worth votes.
Opposition should make clear that No Deal is not the end of Brexit. Remain is the quickest way to end Brexit.
Labours policy is not so different to the Lib Dems or Greens or SNP. Another referendum has to have a leave option.
Agree with binners
farage has raised millions in America,
Cummings still has his Cambridge analytics data
We know that Kate hoey gave farage labour polling data
There are some very suspect pro lexit webpages out there: Labour Heartlands & Nye Bevan News smack of Lyndon crosbys fake news pages he set up last time
https://www.sott.net/article/417953-Johnson-allys-firm-discreetly-runs-a-Facebook-propaganda-network-scam-of-professionalized-disinformation
I like thornberry but Labour's policy just made her look foolish, the brexiters have a clear message & they know how to manipulate
their own Leader wouldn’t necessarily campaign in support of a Brexit deal he himself negotiated?
Sounds perfectly sensible to me.
Just because he negotiated a deal doesnt mean it would be better than remaining and would be ****ing stupid therefore to support it.
The alternative would be to leave Mays hard brexit deal or no deal. Since Labour are opposed to either then it is sensible to try and improve Mays deal even if they are against it as an option.
Remember a certain other referendum when the people calling it thought one option was so unlikely it wasnt worth thinking through the consequences of people voting for it.
Any upcoming election will be fought on social media with clear concise messages.
I guess there is the problem many people are too stupid to understand anything slightly more subtle than a binary question. However thats what got us into the ****ing mess to begin with.
IMO Tories are wrong to make this Boris vs Corbyn
Isn’t that like saying that “Trump is ‘wrong’ to make this about MAGA vs Mexicans, Muslims and Muh-bama ”?
Seemed to work out great for him. Brexit has been fought using the same play-book
For how many years now have the popular British ‘press’ had Corbyn cast as the pantomime Commie Crocodile? Muslim-loving, bearded, terrorist-cuddling old grandad?
Populism/Nationalism only works in binary. See also Italy today. It’s only a matter of time until you hear the word ‘traitor’ as a shorthand term for ‘remainer’.
The no-deal game is nearing an end. They planned to kick the can down the road until now. To build up a head of steam. Now the time-is-running-out to Save BritainEngland from the Muslims, Poles, Frogs, Huns and Commies. And all that stands in our way are those traitorous remoaners who out of touch with Real British People who wish to make Britain Great Again. Who could be against that? Only a baddie.
The problem is that you only had to listen to Emily Thornberry tying herself in knots on QT the other night to see that Labour’s Brexit policy is a rambling incoherent mess
Don't agree, that was a classic case of heard mentality not being able to deal with the complexity of the situation and thus jumping on her because she didn't give a black and white answer.
She did clearly state her personal position versus delivery democracy.
Unfortunately, we have to deal with the world as it is, rather than as we’d like it to be.
Dominic Cummings understands this very well. The lies and manipulation have started already. The groundwork is being done ready for a brutal and dishonest election campaign
Labour needs to wake up to reality and stop the endless ‘if...if...if...if...’
This will certainly be the most important election of my lifetime and it needs a credible effective opposition to fight these far right, disaster capitalist lunatics.
This should be an open goal for Labour
It will never be a open goal.
It's completely at odds with the division in society.
Dominic Cummings understands this very well. The lies and manipulation have started already. The groundwork is being done ready for a brutal and dishonest election campaign
I reckon it’ll be done on something like ‘let’s get it over’, it’ll be sold on another binary simple premise that parliament is what’s holding it from just being done.
Simple wins.
Dominic Cummings understands this very well.
Binners I’m at a complete loss as to why you continue to defer to the supposed political genius of Cummings and Johnson and dismiss labour as amateurs when the stark evidence of the past few weeks has demonstrated the very opposite.
I don’t know what newspapers you’ve been reading but it seems to have escaped your notice that labour have run rings around everyone they’ve come up against. First May, then Swinson, and now Cummings and Johnson. The hardest part is still to come of course but it really couldn’t have gone any better for labour up to this point.
Where’s Tom Watson BTW? He seems to have gone a bit quiet.
Run rings? 😂
If they were that good they would be in power not sitting on the opposition benches!!
The goal is to win elections not being good at opposition.
The goal is to win elections not being good at opposition.
Hang on for months everyone’s been screaming about a lack of effective opposition. Now they’ve demonstrated that it’s not enough? The election is on its way, i’m sure when it comes you’ll be salivating at the prospect of Johnson winning so you can be proved right.
Nope, and it is very true that for the past few weeks Corbyn has upped his game. But he is still behind in the polls.
Hopefully the UK people will make the right choice and kick the Brexshitters in history.
The Tories and Brexit party have a very clear message, it needs to be the same for Labour if they want to be in power. Simple as that.
Is there any reason that a referendum can't precede an election? Purely so the electioneering can be about building a stable future as opposed to all about Brexit. Yes, it means delay but hopefully that's going to happen anyway.
The longer the opposition have to stay United the more the cracks are going to show.
Loving the widespread condemnation of the JFC tweet from all sides, but they need to stop retweeting the original image while doing so. They're just doing Dom's job for him...
So let’s say the no no deal law passes, and Boris for once does stick to his word and then defies it. What next?
Contempt of parliament?
Refusal to pass financial bills to hold the government to ransom?
At what point does it become a big enough constitutional crisis for Lizzie to sack him? She did it to Whitlam in Oz in 70s, for much less.
At what point does it become a big enough constitutional crisis for Lizzie to sack him? She did it to Whitlam in Oz in 70s, for much less.
It was the Governor General Sir John Kerr who sacked Whitlam. It's still very much up for debate how much the Queen knew about it. (letters between the two are still under lock and key) The palace has always denied any knowledge, but I'd doubt that very much.
So let’s say the no no deal law passes, and Boris for once does stick to his word and then defies it. What next?
Contempt of parliament?
Refusal to pass financial bills to hold the government to ransom?
Probably a GE which goes back to the square one which is GE that could be call before 31 Oct.
The opposition cannot hold the govt or the people to ransom for too very long as they need to have a GE to establish their legitimacy. If the rebels try to pull a quick one before going to the GE they will get it in the GE.
It was the Governor General Sir John Kerr who sacked Whitlam. It’s still very much up for debate how much the Queen knew about it. (letters between the two are still under lock and key) The palace has always denied any knowledge, but I’d doubt that very much.
Yes, her representative. And one can assume she knew quite a lot about it, or why the secrecy for those letters?
In this country though it’s her job. And as upsetting for the born to rule classes as Whitlam was, he didn’t openly defy the law, which is what Johnson is proposing to do.
By your benchmark then Daz, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard we’re all devastatingly effective leaders?
Probably a GE which goes back to the square one which is GE that could be call before 31 Oct.
But not withstanding your second comment, short of voting for no confidence in themselves (or Johnson resigning), the gvt are entirely at the whim of the opposition.
But at the same time, what recourse do the opposition, who are in majority, have if the executive fail to obey the law?
... the gvt are entirely at the whim of the opposition.
They already are since ex-PM May.
But at the same time, what recourse do the opposition, who are in majority, have if the executive fail to obey the law?
Not sure yet but I guess they might just be forced to have a GE by someone ... not sure who that someone is. 😀
Corbyn will not be as useless as they are portraying him come election time
He is the main impediment to Labour getting elected.
The people I work with are sensible, reasonably engaged about Brexit and know that the Conservatives caused all this. There are four of us who are fairly good friends.
In past times, when the world was halfway sane, we would all have been described as moderate conservatives. Two of them now say ‘Boris Johnson is a total stroker and shouldn’t be anywhere near power, but I CANNOT vote for Jeremy Bloody Corbyn - terrorist sympathizer and clueless dithering twunt’. Or words to that effect. In light of this, the two I am on about would probably not bother voting, but if they did, they would vote conservative to hold them to account.
A halfway sane Labour leader would be absolutely pissing it by now.
These are people who are above average intelligence, have a good deal of life experience and realism behind them and are decent folk. They are conscientious at work and easy to get along with.
Sometimes ‘we’ in the STW politics thread niche need to remember that a lot of sensible folk are just too busy to keep up with all the shenanigans.
Labour need to ditch Magic Grandpa and get a halfway plausible leader. They can then campaign with a slant of ‘whatever happened to the art of being a conservative at heart whilst not being a total arsehole?’
The people I work with are sensible, reasonably engaged about Brexit
Did they vote in or out? If they voted out then your "sensible" adjective is misplaced. Brexit never was and isn't the sensible option.
Corbyn isn't dithering, he's managing a complex and nuanced situation to get the best outcome. However as we've seen, people don't understand that and see it as dithering. Shame really. We want thoughtful and careful politicians but when we get one we just attack him anyway. This is why we're in a mess and why we're doomed.
Dannyh: they can’t be that intelligent if they’re falling for the terrorist sympathiser trope.
Whilst I get your point, I’m still utterly baffled as to the differential expectations placed upon leaders of Labour vs the Tories, the last three of the latter being the most inept, useless, and downright destructive prime ministers the country has seen in a very long time.
Shame really. We want thoughtful and careful politicians but when we get one we just attack him anyway.
Totally this. The same people on here who bemoan the lurch to populist politics want Corbyn to boil labour policy down to 3 word sound bites, moan about him not being on the telly enough, and trot out whatever the daily mail headline is that day about him. You can’t have it both ways.
Dannyh: they can’t be that intelligent if they’re falling for the terrorist sympathiser trope.
I think what danny is saying is that it’s not fair that decent, respectable and upstanding middle class people like him are not having it all their own way any more or being paid the attention they deserve.
You may dispute the term ‘dithering’ Molls (I think he’s the dictionary definition of the word), but what he most certainly is guilty of is the word that those around him, who aren’t members of the weird cult, use repeatedly...
‘disengaged’
I, for one, find that really strange.
For a man who, so we are told, has spent his life campaigning and protesting, he seems to have spent the last 3 years being remarkably sanguine about what essentially amounts to a far right coup. I haven’t seen the slightest hint of any protesting or campaigning.
And it’s this detachment, along with many of his other obvious flaws which contribute to something that is undeniable...
The total absence of leadership
@binners: 1st google hit for me - https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/29/jeremy-corbyn-backs-hard-left-plan-bring-cities-halt-protest/amp/
I think there’s a saying about blindness in people who choose not to see...
This should be an open goal for Labour
Because the situation is so simple?