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Much like how No.10 has suddenly acquired a cute little doggy. Distraction.
Good choice of dog, though. Bit scraggy, lots of high pitched yapping and will probably try to hump anything within reach that stays still for more than five seconds. To finish the perfect metaphor, it will be filmed scrabbling around at the base of a lamp post whilst an Alsatian or St Bernard walks up, doesn’t even notice the scruffy, yappy little dog, and pisses all over it before going on its way.
mattyfez
Member
Assuming this comes to pass, can we count on labour not to play ball and give him his 2/3’s for his GE?
You want the opposition to not bring down the government?
Good choice of dog, though. Bit scraggy, lots of high pitched yapping and will probably try to hump anything within reach that stays still for more than five seconds. To finish the perfect metaphor, it will be filmed scrabbling around at the base of a lamp post whilst an Alsatian or St Bernard walks up, doesn’t even notice the scruffy, yappy little dog, and pisses all over it before going on its way.
That is because you've spent the past half a year playing the populist tune. You victim blame center left remainers for the current assault on democracy and the fact that the Tories are in power, because your precious Corbyn did not garner their respect.
The reason that people are mistaking you for an alt-right troll, is that populists on both sides of the political spectrum often appear to be and actually are of the same disposition.
CH4 live ...
You want the opposition to not bring down the government?
Yes. Not right now, any way..
Think about it.. If Labour support a GE, no deal brexit will happen in the meantime. It's boris's master plan that labour will jump for a premature GE.
That is because you’ve spent the past half a year playing the populist tune.
As in the same solution Binners now seems to be supporting?
The reason that people are mistaking you for an alt-right troll
There you go again. Keep it up, just gives me more ammunition when I get round to doing something about it.
You want the opposition to not bring down the government?
Agreeing with the government wouldn't normally be considered bringing them down.
How it would pan out is anyone's guess in practice but, not voting through a GE then immediately calling a VoNC since he's effectively just admitted he can't get the confidence of the house has potential, the theory being you could put in someone who can command that confidence and force through legislation to at least ask for an extension. If it goes to a GE at the moment no deal is a done deal really as there's no mechanism to postpone it for which there's time.
Thank the whips of both main parties for that.
Blair is right, a GE now is a monumental trap.
If an extension can be agreed for a general election, than I’m all for it. The opposition parties have no chance if they try and fight it like a normal election though… they have to realise what they are up against and seek to game our FPTP system… they are up against the two Leave campaign teams with their gloves off, not the Conservative party of old… normal conventions and staying just the right side of laws and limits is over for the nationalist right.
The culture war not looking so appealing now we’re staring into the abyss?
https://twitter.com/chakrabortty/status/1168593619722391553?s=21
The Gordon Brown thing about the EU offering an extension without us asking is also interesting.
Which may be why were getting the panic from Boris which is what the threats of deselection smells of.
If this if offered the Vonc/ge issues isn’t a problem and Boris battleships sunk.
The opposition parties have no chance if they try and fight it like a normal election though…
That is the whole idea. Why should they let the opposition parties dictate?
PM BoJo knows if he goes for a No Deal he will win a lot more seats in the North, and perhaps even the first Tory to conquer the North for a long time. 🤔
The Gordon Brown thing about the EU offering an extension without us asking is also interesting.
Difficulty there is how we say yes please. Our legislature has passed an act which says we're leaving on the 31st, without amending that we're stuck. Then we're back to how parliament can bring about legislation, because there isn't really a mechanism for it. Until now there's never needed to be one.
Arguably the queen could accept but she acts on the advice of the PM who is...
Although this final season of Brexit is very entertaining, I cant be bothered to keep up, so I'll just binge the box set.
PM BoJo knows if he goes for a No Deal he will win a lot more seats in the North
What, like Sunderland? Lol!
PM BoJo knows if he goes for a No Deal he will win a lot more seats in the North, and perhaps even the first Tory to conquer the North for a long time.
What like Scotland ? 😄😄😄
so I’ll just binge the box set.
You know it's only being released on laserdisc yeah?
What, like Sunderland? Lol!
That depends on whether they prefer Brexit party more than PM BoJo's Brexit ...
What like Scotland ? 😄😄😄
Not that far north coz that is wilderness ... 😅
Although this final season of Brexit is very entertaining, I cant be bothered to keep up, so I’ll just binge the box set.
Why even bother? Just wait for the next GE to vote. Keep it simple. The current hoo haa is just noises. Go the wrong way and the party gets it in the next GE to be consigned to history.
I like the way PM BoJo hammers the Tory remainders. He should hammer them hard! Harder! Make them bow to the Authorita! Respect the authorita! 💪 👹
What, like Sunderland? Lol!
That depends on whether they prefer Brexit party more than PM BoJo’s Brexit …
I take it you've not seen the swing to lib dem in the sunderald by election a few months ago?
just gives me more ammunition when I get round to doing something about it.
What are you planning? A major, and I mean major, leaflet campaign?
I take it you’ve not seen the swing to lib dem in the sunderald by election a few months ago?
Wait and see coz that is Not even a GE.
I will vote for Brexit party if they are around but if not the next best party that stands their ground with No Deal whoever they are.
If All the parties are sell out parties then I will vote for the party with the greatest chance to challenge the winning party.
Politicians are just looking after their own pockets that's all.
At the risk of feeding the troll,
Why? What do you see as the benefits of no deal? (Beyond bringing down the establishment, which TBH I could get behind.)
Why? What do you see as the benefits of no deal? (Beyond bringing down the establishment, which TBH I could get behind.)
The benefits depend on your interpretation coz both sides (politicians) are just looking after number one first.
The common views are that some say take back control while other say the world is a poorer place to live.
I say make all the establishments sweat! Don't care who they are or which party they belong to. Make them fear! Let them know they are there because they are put there by the people. I lend them the power so do as I say or I vote you out ... if there are enough of me around that is.
If those opposite to my view win then more power to them/you/whoever ...
Look at those fork tongues like Tarzan Heseltine or Kenny Clarke or John Minor can they be trusted? You can have them if you wish.
At the risk of feeding the troll
He's like a dumped partner binging on chocolate and lambrini
Yeah that didn't answer the question, unsurprisingly.
The benefits depend on your interpretation
Well, no, I'm asking for your interpretation, that doesn't require any interpretation on my part.
I say make all the establishments sweat!
As I said, "beyond bringing down the establishment." If that's all you've got then fair enough, though there must surely be less self-damaging ways of achieving that.
Credit where it's due though, that's the same thing dazh wants, at least you're being honest about it.
Wait,
I will vote for Brexit party
Don’t care who they are or which party they belong to.
Which is it?
He’s like a dumped partner binging on chocolate and lambrini
Grapes from Italy and coca from Brazil where they are burning down the amazon.
Sounds like a well thought out strategy.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1168638957711745025?s=21
You have to wonder how this shakes down for the “natural party of government”, after a major part of it reforms themselves as the Conservative Brexit Party and tries to purge all others.
Well, no, I’m asking for your interpretation, that doesn’t require any interpretation on my part.
I have explained myself many moons ago about bureaucratic organisation so go visit that explanation again as I stand by that.
As I said, “beyond bringing down the establishment.” If that’s all you’ve got then fair enough, though there must surely be less self-damaging ways of achieving that.
Sometimes you just have to dismantle and start again but I seriously doubt the establishment can be brought down, and I have no wish to let any establishment or bureaucracy ride the people like a donkey.
The only way for me to "dismantle" the establishment is through ballot paper. i.e. vote as you wish regardless.
Can you make an omelet without breaking few eggs?
Which is it?
That depends on the candidate or party that I can vote.
If Brexit party fills candidate here I will vote for them if not then I shall vote for a party with strong Brexit credential (if the candidate is a secret reminder than no vote from me regardless) ... think I am pinning too much hope on that.
Dare I remind anyone that I’ve had every insult from nazi/alt-right appeaser to closet brexiteer thrown at me in past few months for daring to suggest the same.
I'm guessing binners means least worst option from McLusky's point of view.
You have to wonder how this shakes down for the “natural party of government”, after a major part of it reforms themselves as the Conservative Brexit Party and tries to purge all others.
I think we might see even more moderate tory MPs defecting if they are forced to choose between sovereign parliamentary democracy and dictatorship.
Maybe it's just wishful thinking as they know what side thier bread is buttered on.
Where their massive pensions are Comming from.
No point engaging with Chew… you’ll just go around in the “EU is bad because it is the EU” circles… not because he can’t make a more cogent case, but because he choses not to for reasons you both fully understand @Cougar & @Drac.
I think we might see even more moderate tory MPs defecting…
I think we will just see more Tory MPs quietly disappear, back into their other lives and work… defections will remain rare. They may play a vital role before they go though.
I think we might see even more moderate tory MPs defecting if they are forced to choose between sovereign parliamentary democracy and dictatorship.
Power come from the people.
They got the power because people lent them.
They are Nothing without the people ... this includes the dictator.
True. I shouldn't have fed him.
Tomorrow should be an interesting day in UK politics. Nice to see them squirming and actually having to think for a change. Sigh. :/
Where their massive pensions are Comming from.
Well it's not the party so I don't suppose desellection worries them on that front.
That said the Conservative party doesn't ask their MPs to "tithe" like Labour(2% of salary) and a few others (greens took 10% in 2011) so they might prefer to stay there.
I guess what I was trying to say is that they're already filthy rich anyway, so it might be a get out of moral jail free card for some, so all bets are off..
I think we could well see some tories that are tired of the bullshit defecting. Might even raise thier profile.
Electoral number crunchers have government losing no deal vote by 10-30 votes tomorrow
If so, will Corbyn go for a GE?
Johnson will only get it if Labour agrees
It's 50/50 whether Johnson would win/lose his majority
And
It would push brexit over the line, so apparently Labour won't vote for it
so what comes next?
Nice to see them squirming and actually having to think for a change.
And I think (now) the thinking needs to be to force an A50 extension AND then get a General Election. I completely disagree with Blair about this being the route to No Deal… I think it is the route to Johnson losing seats, and SNP and LibDems gaining seats, and Labour repeating its 2017 performance (losing some seats, but gaining just as many). That leads to either a Withdrawal Agreement with a political declaration promising a genuine close relationship with all of the EEA, or keeping EU membership, decided in a referendum. Extension + election is the best chance to further erode Johnson’s number of MPs… election in October without an extension means the Conservatives pull the Brexit Party supporters back on side and Johnson gets his majority. Putting a different PM in place to hold a referendum without first having an election will never wash… Blair needs to do more thinking.
Yup looks like Labour may well not grant Johnson his election. That will leave him as a lame duck PM - a minority govt as he will have sacked 20 of his own MPs and Parly legislating against him.
That would be some humiliation!
I have explained myself many moons ago about bureaucratic organisation so go visit that explanation again as I stand by that.
Not that it matters overly, but it'd be quicker and easier for you to just repeat yourself than it would be for me to sift back through some 70-odd thousand posts.
Can you make an omelet without breaking few eggs?
Brexit is more like, "can you make an omelette using the eggs in a cake?"
In any case, you've still not answered my question. Why do you want brexit beyond bringing down the establishment? Or is that the only reason?
Although this final season of Brexit is very entertaining
Dude.. What you meant to say was the final episode of season one.
It's not even started yet.
Have I missed something here?
Hasn't Corbyn said he is up for the ge? I thought he said that today at some event or other?
So, election on October 14th and very likely a Johnson win based on peoples apathy towards Brexit and thinking just leaving means it's all finished.... Totally forgetting that leaving is just the start of the real Brexit process of course....
Genuine question, did Corbyn rule out a ge today?? To be honest,I hope he has as I honestly think Johnson will probably win it!!😟
The general election is happening. Corbyn is right to push for it, and show himself as keen for it to happen. Making sure it is not entirely on Johnson’s terms is the task ahead.
A reminder that Johnson is going full out for No Deal, and new deal talk is just about blaming it on others…
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1168543706472943616?s=21
Genuine question, did Corbyn rule out a ge today?? T
Was ruled out by Labour front benches on Newsnight IF it would allow No Deal to happen, that was the trap Blair was warning of
I also think it likely Johnson would win, but if just sacked 20 odd mps (against wishes of their constituency parties) and lost 10+ Tory mps with Ruth in Scotland and DUP lose seat(s) to Alliance in NI...
It's a huge gamble for him, hed have to go full no deal to flush out Farage and that is not universally popular.
It’s not even started yet.
Longest pilot episode… ever!
If they commission the first series proper, I can’t see it getting good numbers.
No serious attempts to get a new deal, because they have no workable plan for Brexit, and need to win over Brexit Party voters who have bought into No Deal nonsense. The trick for them is get a majority for five years before the No Deal chaos kicks in, and before the chase for quick deals (very much on EU & USA terms), after the Brexit date, begins in earnest.
Problem is that they have to drop pretence at chasing negotiations to fully win back bxp voters
That then alienates moderate tories... ( Those that are left)
Support for no deal is about 35%
Is that enough ?
The gamble is that, in most seats, the “moderate Tories” have no where to go… in contrast to all the seats where the Brexit Party has lots of support that could swap to Conservative candidates. The gamble depends on timing… which is why so much effort is going into stopping parliament from moving the date we are due to leave the EU. It also depends heavily on what Farage wants…
No serious attempts to get a new deal, because they have no workable plan for Brexit, and need to win over Brexit Party voters who have bought into No Deal nonsense. The trick for them is get a majority for five years before the No Deal chaos kicks in, and before the chase for quick deals (very much on EU & USA terms), after the Brexit date, begins in earnest.
Yep he never had any intention for a deal unless it dropped into his lap.
He has no real options, changing the pm didn’t really change anything it’s pretty much the same position as TM was in and the clocks still ticking down, all he can do is attempt to out-brexit the Brexit party and hope he can scrape by. Which is why he’s been electioneering from day one, he just wants to keep the job and brexits just a MacGuffin to him.
Just had a journalist on Europe 1 commenting (laughing at) Corbyn's policies going into a possible general election. When a journalist in socialist land* finds Corbyn's policies unrealistically left wing you know Labour is going to struggle in a GE.
* how France is refered to on CNBC
. When a journalist in socialist land* finds Corbyn’s policies unrealistically left wing you know Labour is going to struggle in a GE
Let's pack up and go home then because a broadcaster in another country (that has its own huge social problems) - laughs at Corbyn.
Unrealistically left-wing... How about the devastating right-wing policies we have endured?
If there is an election it will be tight. It will weaken Johnson if Labour win today and don't take his first for an election.
In theory the rebel allianve could still force through a Brecit extension then call a VONC to force an election. Taking control from a PM like that would be a big humiliation for Johnson
But on the flip side - Labour got bounce in 2017 for too reasons (1) A simple choice between Tory austerity or Labour spend - but Boris has been announcing spending on Police, education, NHS already, nothing like Labours plans but enough to blur the lines. (2) May was an utter pile of toss as a campaigning leader - I'm not convinced Boris is brilliant bit he's not as bad. On the flip.side the potential Boris humiliation if Labour play it right and the sacking off 20 popular Tory MPs plus Scotland (as mentioned above) will play against the Tories
Ultimately it will be tight - prob with SNP support needed for a Labour Govt
I've started reading Chewkw's posts on a comedy, over-excited Claudio caluori voice.
Makes them far more entertaining!.
IF it would allow No Deal to happen, that was the trap Blair was warning of
He also warning that, unless Labour returned a massive majority they'd be in the same boat BJ is now. There would be no chance of Labour concluding this and they'll be in the same mire.
If there is an election it will be tight. It will weaken Johnson if Labour win today and don’t take his first for an election.
It'll weaken him at Westminster but I don't think so with the electorate. It'll make it clear Conservatives are for brexit and Labour aren't. Unless Labour can capitalise on that by convincing themselves they're not, and coming out for remain they simply won't pick up as many votes as they'd loose.
I'll give me a an example, the next GE, if brexit isn't done with, is all about leave/remain it is the 2nd ref. A vote Tory is a vote for no deal at the moment, a vote Labour? What day is it? I've zero faith JC will actively seek to remain and I've no expectation he'll get a better deal. No I won't be voting Labour, I'll be voting LD, or Green - or if I were so inclined, tory or swivel eyed fruit cake) because at least I know what I'm voting for. It doesn't help if course that I think a 2nd ref is likely to produce a result not entirely dissimilar to the first either.
Chewkw thinks they are zombie bureaucrats at the EU. He worries that the distance between the voter and the Zombie is too great and that some of the Zombies are not elected at all.
I'd love to know what Corbyn's unrealistic policies are. Find it interesting that Blojo is going hard at spending promises on everything - Labour's supposed Magic Money Tree been the Tories go to argument when Labour start criticising public services.
I’m loving Chewkw seeing a Cummings run government with another Tory PM who has assumed the mantle even though they weren’t on the ticket at the election as the antidote to unelected bureaucracy.
The EU is as democratic, possibly more so, than the UK is in normal times - and UK democracy really has sunk to new lows due to Brexit and the shenanigans of Brexiteers and Brexies.
Obviously “I’m loving” is a relative term, because the overall situation is pretty poor for all of us.
PS - apparently the present numbers are suggesting BloJo loses another 6 seats if there is a GE. The runners and riders may change that, and the campaign even in a snap election will be long in real terms, but that’s a 5 seat minority even with DUP support.
Does he offer the SNP independence? Might be s vote winner with the “true British patriots” of little England.
I’m expecting a few more of these … quietly leaving parliament rather than joining another party or standing/sitting as an independent…
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1168769690715459586?s=21
————————————————
He also warning that, unless Labour returned a massive majority they’d be in the same boat BJ is now
An election after an extension is all about reducing the number of Conservative MPs… it is highly unlikely to result in a majority Labour government… but a coalition or supported minority government without either Johnson or Farage in it is something worth aiming for, for so so many reasons. Tactical voting won’t be enough to achieve this… the opposition parties need to work together… or it’s a No Deal Brexit and at least 5 years of a damaging Conservative Brexit government… and if democratic norms are then further subverted by them, many many more years.
PS – apparently the present numbers are suggesting BloJo loses another 6 seats if there is a GE.
I saw poll/seat prediction yesterday that had Tories on 358 seats.
Scotroutes - one poll ain’t an election (and check who commissioned it) but 10,000 surveyed apparently - here’s the story
I do hope that JC et al have the savvy and courage to deny Boris an election on his terms. There's a job that needs doing prior to prorogation and they need to see it through.
Straightforward national polling will struggle because of the potential 20 Tory rebels who may stand, plus the Ruth D Scotland effect
Also, Johnson will need to get out and campaign unlike during his leadership election. Hiding away really damaged May. If he does that there is always the opportunity for a big **** up
In a GE I predict Tories with the most seats but no majority and being unable to form a coalition with a majority. Because we live in that kind of time. There is not going to be an easy solution to any of this.
the Ruth D Scotland effect
A couple of folk have referred to this. What is it? The Tories were due to be wiped out up here before anything Ruth Davidson has said or done recently. She was nowhere near as popular or influential as much of the media liked to make out. She has flipped more times than a 5 star McDonald's frier and was completely sidelined by her Westminster "colleagues".
but a coalition or supported minority government
Isn't likely to work. The parties have little in common except their dislike of the tories but they don't like each other significantly more. What's the quid pro quo? Do you give the SNP an independent Scotland for their support or do they bin that mainstay of their policy once they get to sit in government? Ask Nick Clegg how that works out. The libdems? Tuition fees is on both their's and labour's radar so that might be enough, if not do you give them PR?
Labour and her supporters need to stop thinking about a close ish 2nd place and actually worry about a majority.
Also, Johnson will need to get out and campaign
He's already done most of what he needs, he's promised a shed load of spending and he's pretty much neutered farage, he'll go into this as the strong man of brexit and the voters he's looking to pick up aren't really interested in anything else.
The parties have little in common except their dislike of the tories but they don’t like each other significantly more.
They might form a coalition to deliver a 2nd ref then call another GE, perhaps. It'll be one of those situations where nothing will work so that'll be the only way forward.
What is it?
The Tories have finally admitted that they're completely ruthless.
They might form a coalition to deliver a 2nd ref then call another GE, perhaps. It’ll be one of those situations where nothing will work so that’ll be the only way forward.
That I can see, short term, limited goal. It's not long term government though and, in honesty, until JC comes up with a stand point for that referendum, I'm not sure I can even see that, no point pushing for ref 2 only to find bitty the major parties are campaigning for leave. As is, if the GE saw Labour loose seats in response to calling a referendum I can well imagine the labour party campaigning for leave in a subsequent referendum. If there's one thing you can count on the Labour membership deciding its that a tory government is worse than, anything really.
actually worry about a majority
Well… if it is heads in the sand time, Johnson is going to get his majority. Labour have done enough to get my vote, and I hope they will do enough in the general election campaign to repeat the performance of 2017 (rather than the awful performance of 2019 so far). But, stopping the Conservative Brexit Party forming the next government means standing aside in seats where other parties can defeat them. The opposition parties can either work together, or see a No Deal Brexit and an increasingly unconservative right wing government do its thing for a generation.
A worrying but wholly unsurprising thread in two halves:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168641286292824064.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168643035569299456.html
The Tories have finally admitted that they’re completely ruthless
[s] Bojo! I mean Bravado! [/s] I mean bravo!
I can't help thinking that if Labour swapped out JC for someone like Yvette Cooper then the next election would be a slam dunk.
Im a Labour Party member and I like JC, but i also recognise that many people don't and i can't stomach this rightwing shitshow any longer.
A worrying but wholly unsurprising thread in two halves:
I can't make head nor tail of that, it's like listening to my daughter have a 4 way conversation with herself.
Labour set to block snap general election over fears of a Boris Johnson no-deal Brexit ‘trick’
‘Will we fall for Boris Johnson’s trick? No we won’t. Boris Johnson is a man who has got form for reneging on his promises’Labour is backing away from granting Boris Johnson the 14 October general election he is threatening, fearing a “trick” that will end in a no-deal Brexit.
Jeremy Corbyn will only deliver the two-thirds Commons majority required to trigger a snap poll if legislation to block a no deal is “locked down” first, the party says.
Labour also fears Mr Johnson could be handed the election – and only then switch the date to after 31 October, when the UK would have left the EU.
“We are not daft enough to see a tactic dictated by PM Johnson which is designed to land us with a no-deal Brexit and to fall for that,” said Tony Lloyd, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary.
“Will we fall for Boris Johnson’s trick? No we won’t. Boris Johnson is a man who has got form for reneging on his promises.”
I can’t make head nor tail of that, it’s like listening to my daughter have a 4 way conversation with herself.
TL;DR They are lying. There is no deal being negotiated - it's a 'sham' devised by Cummings, there are no 'technical solutions', there are no 'mini-deals' to mitigate no-deal and the plan to abolish the backstop has been dismissed as 'complete fantasy' by booming voice law **** Geoffrey Cox.
Lies lies lies lies lies.
And still people will be lining up to vote for them.
P.S. After being told Yellowhammer was a fabrication of worst case scenarios, they won't publish the new version because it is too scary.
Unrealistically left-wing… How about the devastating right-wing policies we have endured?
I think he is unrealistically left wing and the Tories are unrealistically right wing. But then I'm a liberal snowflake.
Another liberal snowflake here, who regards both main party leaders - Dominic Cummings and Seamas Milne - as dangerous extremist lunatics.
This morning I heard the most depressing thing yet about this whole debacle...
Dominic Grieve calmly talking about needing to regularly consult with the police regarding the constant death threats he receives.
This is what Brexit has turned this country into with its emboldening and normalising of extremist politics. It’s tragic
Tactical voting won’t be enough to achieve this
Tactical voting could be rather effective in one specific constituency. One that is primarily pro-remain and anti heathrow.
Might not be good for its current MP who skipped the country when voting about Heathrow and seems rather pro-brexit.