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Junky I guess £350 was chosen as its in the ONS report and it is the official calculation.
The official calculataion of what? How much we send to Brussels each week?
WW3 was I think coined by Boris
Indeed - made up by liar Boris.
Indeed - made up by liar Boris.
What is it with you and your Ott Cameron defense? Are you really Samantha?
I guess £350 was chosen as its in the ONS report
its because its the biggest figure possible and it will generate the most dislike/fear/votes for them.
Its obvious we should say what it actually costs us and that figure is lower hence they use that one. They say we pay that when we dont and anyone , vaguely, informed knows this
OK, seeing how £350 million/week is causing such gnashing of teeth, how about Remain's claim that leaving would cost every household £4300 a year, which the Treasury says is a woeful misrepresentation of their report, which is itself a fanciful work of extrapolation?
There are 26.7 million households in the UK. 26.7 million x £4300 = £114.81 billion taken away from household budgets apparently. Compare that to Leave's misrepresentation of the £18 billion figure in the ONS report, choosing that over the net contribution. Whose is the bigger whopper?
Sadly, no. I hear people daily who
A) believe that we really do send £350M per week to Europe,
B) and that it could / would otherwise be spent on the NHS
And what do they say to you when you point out to them that its actually [u]only[/u] £180 million ?
Vote Leave or Vote OUT for happiness.
Try something new ... breath some fresh air!
Take the lead rather than be the Lemmings to be led.
And what do they say to [u]you when you point out to them that its actually only £180 million ?
I dunno what do they say when you point out trade with the EU is worth 4.4 [b]billion[/b] a week ???
https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-uks-exports-go-europe/
ninfan - MemberAnd what do they say to you when you point out to them that its actually only £180 million ?
They say variations on the theme of "But that's only half what Boris said", ime. Some don't believe you, most aren't too happy that they've been lied to. Others are surprised to find it ignores all of the benefits; they think the £350m is a net cost. Which is a reasonable assumption, since the only figure that really counts here financially, is the bottom line, not one item on the list.
Turn it around. If the true figure was high enough for the leave campaign's purposes, they would be using it. The fact that they chose to lie, to nearly double it, tells you that even they don't believe the true price is high enough to put people off.
They say variations on the theme of "But that's only half what Boris said", ime.
yeah, I'll bet they do 😆
I dunno what do they say when you point out trade with the EU is worth 4.4 billion a week ???
They say "oh, its a bloody good thing that won't change significantly after we leave then, isn't it?" 😉
ninfan - Memberyeah, I'll bet they do
Why do you ask the question when you've already decided what the answer is going to be, and that you'll ignore the real one if it's inconvenient?
Eurosceptism in Europe. The EU is seen as less of a good thing in France than the UK.
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/10/brexit-domino-effect-europe-eu-referendum-uk ]Guardian Link[/url]
@kimbers Trade with the EU is not dependent upon membership, we've been round this loop numerous times.
Why do you ask the question when you've already decided what the answer is going to be, and that you'll ignore the real one if it's inconvenient?
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There are 26.7 million households in the UK. 26.7 million x £4300 = £114.81 billion taken away from household budgets apparently.
@Flying given all the disparity in wealth we hear about the reality is this would mostly go to the super-rich anyway so nothing that need to concern the rest of us 😉
@ninfan, your evasion of the question also makes no sense. Want another go?
The EU is seen as less of a good thing in France than the UK.
Whilst the polls I've seen show a small majority of French in favour of a Brexit, an equally small majority of French are against a Frexit. Polls vary but I haven't seen any to back your claim, Jamba.
Polls vary but I haven't seen any to back your claim, Jamba.
Then you haven't seen the poll I linked to, which Jamba linked to as well.
Just sayin'.
Whose is the bigger whopper?
whilst i absolutely get your point and i dont want to defend either view as they are both shit the Brexit one is deliberately misleading , they know this to be the case, and they know what we really pay the EU and its not that figure.
the Osborne/remain one is almost certainly complete bollocks but he/they may well just believe it
Tenuous and both are shit.
the Osborne/remain one is almost certainly complete bollocks but he/they may well just believe it
He's taken the difference in projected [b]increase[/b] in GDP by 2030 depending on whether we're in or out - somehow extrapolating 14 years into the future, divided it by the number of UK households in 2015 for some reason, and sells it to us as a permanent annual [b]loss[/b] for each household. But somehow it's just the Leave claim that's the deliberately misleading one.
He's the Chancellor of the Exchequer, not some keyboard politician incorrectly wielding a 'D' grade in GCSE mathematics. He's not just "got his figures mixed up". There is a level of considered deceit involved here far greater than Leave campaign beefing up their "this is how much we give the EU" hogwash.
But it's OK, cos it's not on the side of a bus, right? It is the first sentence on one of the government's website news pages - [URL= http://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year ]http://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year[/url] - but... I mean... it's not a bus, is it? Nothing to worry about.
Hang on. Are you suggesting that the presence of a lie on the remain side invalidates their whole aim?
I am not voting in because of that statement. And no, it's not ok.
I'm torn. I'd like us to be a part of a reformed Europe. I think that reform (of the sort I want!) is likely to follow if we leave, but very unlikely to if we stay - so, what chance us being able to rejoin a reformed EU?!
what chance us being able to rejoin a reformed EU?!
Move to Scotland 😉
[I]Not us. The Europeans will start killing each other again without us to keep them in check. Like they did the other 2 times.[/I]
There was an element of war by proxy though, since we pretty much bankrolled WW1 and WW2 - for the first 3 years of each.
Hang on. Are you suggesting that the presence of a lie on the remain side invalidates their whole aim?
I don't think I've said that anywhere, no.
I was pointing out that Leave's £18 billion/year lie is dwarfed by Remain's £114 billion/year loss-that-isn't-even-actually-a-loss lie.
I dunno, they are the same in moral terms, to me - both outrageous, and both doing their sides more harm than good.
but very unlikely to if we stay
I think change is happening whichever way the vote goes tbh.
One is a blatant lie
One is an estimate from a detailed economic model - one of several that you can go and read easily
Odd form of equivalence?
I think change is happening whichever way the vote goes tbh.
Perhaps. I'd love to hear that from the EU.
I'm torn. I'd like us to be a part of a reformed Europe. I think that reform (of the sort I want!) is likely to follow if we leave, but very unlikely to if we stay - so, what chance us being able to rejoin a reformed EU?!
@Markie a lot of us feel this way, a proper economic community based upon trade. Hiwever the EU has chosen political union over trade amd thrown democracy out of the window,
Tye EU is changing but away from what we want. If we leave it may well fall apart but thats hatdly change is it ?
£350 million is not a blatant lie. £350 million extra to spend on the NHS is a blatant lie.
Its like the remainers think they'll win the vote if they win this little point. Wasting so much time on it, absolutelt playing into the brexiters hands.
Perhaps. I'd love to hear that from the EU.
Me too.
If the EU thinks that its members want to leave, then it might change. If the people that want change leave, then it's doesn't need to.
They are arguing about the £350 as they are trying to divert attention from uncontrolled immigration which on its own is a Referendum losing issue for Remain.
Keep telling yourself that THM. It's a deliberate misuse of economic analysis to create a scare story. Just as the Leave claim is. One is based on verifiable figures, one is based on ropey estimates of our economy in 14 years time. One exaggerates the actual payments to the EU by a factor of 2. One paints a hypothetical 27% increase in GDP as a £114 billion annual loss to household income.
I have no doubt there are many studies similar to the Treasury one our esteemed Chancellor misuses. I doubt any of them draw the conclusion that potential differences in [b]increased[/b] GDP result in a tangible £100+ billion annual [b]decrease[/b] in household income though.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-british-public-wrong-about-nearly-everything-survey-shows-a7074311.html ]I'll just leave this here[/url]
No it's a lie from both an accounting and a cash flow perspective. It's importance? Those who use either dont know what they are talking about (unlikely) or are blatant liers (highly probable)
If that's not important, god help us!
They will be arguing that immigration is uncontrolled next.
Every statement has a lie at its heart. Shameful.
If its a waste if time, why do the BSers give it prime prominence - ok in a tie with xenophobia.
Look at the VL website, every arguement can be falsified with ease - total Bllx
So Jambas, do you reckon Gove believes in a single market or not?
If the EU thinks that its members want to leave, then it might change. If the people that want change leave, then it's doesn't need to.
It's unlikely imo that the UK leaving the EU wouldn't cause profound changes to the EU.
I have no doubt that it would shake the EU to its very core - it really isn't that politically stable.
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/10/brexit-domino-effect-europe-eu-referendum-uk ]Would Brexit trigger a domino effect in Europe?[/url]
[i][b]With Euroscepticism rising, a leave vote could prompt some member states to renegotiate their relationship with Brussels[/i][/b]
There are two reasons why I very strongly support withdrawal from the EU. The first one is because it would be good for the people of Great Britain and the second one because it would be good for the whole of Europe.
Markie's hypothesis is more likely IMO ernie. That would suck.
And how is the Remain claim not a lie from from the same perspective? You seem fairly clued up in this area, and yet you're happy to allow using a 14 year GDP extrapolation (which in itself is ludicrous) divided by year-old household numbers to come up with a "your family will personally be this much worse off a year, forever" claim? Really?
There is a level of considered deceit involved here far greater than Leave campaign beefing up their "this is how much we give the EU" hogwash.
[s]Its not far greater as the leave one is indisputably not correct - it is a misleading figure and there is no doubt that is not the amount that it costs us to be in the EU. Its is a definite falsehood
I have no desire to defend Georges BS as anything other than overstated BS. However the other is definitely untrue and provably so[/s]
This is a bit daft we are essentially arguing over whose shit is the smelliest. They both stink so lets leave it there
Which bit of the 201 pages is the ropey bit OX?
BTW, falsifiable is spelt F A L S I F I A B L E not V E R I F I A B L E. it really is quite simple.
I don't need to tell myself. I just check VL website every day. A blatant lie today given even more prominence. Supporters must be very proud.
jambalaya - MemberThey are arguing about the £350 as they are trying to divert attention from uncontrolled immigration which on its own is a Referendum losing issue for Remain.
If that were true, then Leave could instantly destroy their position by stopping repeating the lie. Handing the Remain campaign a tool they can use to divert people from a referendum losing issue would be one of the stupidest political moves of all time. If that were true.
You can read my views on the HM Treasury analysis and what is and what isnt important a few pages back Ox.
Quite extraordinary that the Brexit approach is a source of pride not shame. Each to their own....
uncontrolled immigration
STILL A LIE
molgrips - MemberMarkie's hypothesis is more likely IMO ernie.
Markie's hypothesis is :
[i]I think that reform (of the sort I want!) is likely to follow if we leave, but very unlikely to if we stay [/i]
Mine is :
[i]It's unlikely imo that the UK leaving the EU wouldn't cause profound changes to the EU.[/i]
How is it different?
Why do so many 'left leaning' folk support Britain's continued membership of an organisation which aims to neutralise democracy and preserve and propagate neoliberalism at the expense of ordinary citizens (just ask the Greeks)?