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So my prediction
If this is defeated today May will offer a customs union to the labour party and they'll vote through a deal with no referendum. Hell they might even go full Norway and abandon the FoM position. May will then step aside handing power to a brexiteer nutter (Boris probably) with a legacy of a soft brexit deal they don't want and can't defend. It will be payback for all the crap she's had to deal with.
May will then step aside handing power to a brexiteer nutter (Boris probably) with a legacy of a soft brexit deal they don’t want and can’t defend. It will be payback for all the crap she’s had to deal with.
I wouldnt put it past a headbanging brexiteer to renege on the deal & just push us into a hard Brexit anyway
gotta be a worry for the EU
If this is defeated today May will offer a customs union to the labour party and they’ll vote through a deal with no referendum.
Noises coming from senior tories (some named) is that defeat is end of the government, they can't support her or the path forward. Extension and election end of April
gotta be a worry for the EU
Why?
They need us more than we need them, remember.
Another election means I get paid for a day working in the Polling Station so its not all bad news!
Senior tories saying if this goes down in flames tonight then she’s finished.
But how many times have we heard that before?
She seems to be the ultimate tag-nut. It’d be alright to admire her single-mindedness, determination, stubbornness, or whatever, if there were actually any point to it and it was actually going somewhere
I thought she was untouchable for a year.
Senior tories saying if this goes down in flames tonight then she’s finished.
she deserves it, appalling politician!
I thought she was untouchable for a year.
Exactly. If she chooses, she can hang on almost ad infinitum. I guess her entire cabinet could resign, but she might not get the hint even then.
I thought she was untouchable for a year.
That was my understanding - unless she resigns? But my understanding is that no-one can ask for a vote of no confidence.
The opposition could ask for a vote of no confidence in the entire government.
Quite a few people pointing towards a potential GE - that's the last thing we need. Especially when the 2 main parties are currently unelectable.
The whole thing has been a deliberate ploy to delay as long as possible, force an election which the Tories lose and dump the whole poison chalice of Brexit on to (presumably) Labour who then have no chance of making anything good out of it. The tories then watch from the sidelines as the country burns (metaphorically hopefully) before sweeping back in as the knights in tarnished armour to clean up the mess. Austerity will look like a veritable spending spree in 5 years from now so they'll be able to look positively generous.
Probably.
I think Conservative Central Office might be a bit over-optimistic thinking people are going to associate the party with competent government within five years. Perhaps 20.
ERG = Momentum. And neither organisation can get elected by the public in a general election.
Indeed but both groups will have installed their prefered candidate for the upcoming alection...
TBH I don't really think JRM cares which was things go Brexit wise at present, thet've engineered a situation where the current Leader must go once the dirty business of Brexit is done and they can put their man in post (My money is on Boris) for a (maybe July~Augustish) election...
but the ERG have gotten what they want from it, however the parlimentary votes go it fits their narrative, They're undaunted by a no-deal outcome they can vilify May if somehow her deal goes through (Can't see it) and if we end up having Brexit Ref 2, the mere holding of it let along a remain decision will be labelled as a "Betrayal" all of which will galvanize the Right wingers around a new, ERG backed Tory leadership...
The prize isn't really Brexit (hard or soft) it's control of parliament and a right leaning Tory party in a now deeply divied UK...
Was that Camerons long game all along?
Can't believe that a general election would be on the cards, solves absolutely nothing, to be honest if there was one and no definitely remain candidate in the offing I'd stand my frigging self, either that or it's a way back for the libdems? What a humungus pile of poo 💩
Don't worry, everything's going to be fine.
I’d say a GE is virtually a certainty, as for the last couple of years I’ve Just worked on the basis of asking myself ‘what is the very worst thing this shower of shit could do for the country now? What would represent the greatest act of catastrophic *-wittery?’
.... and they haven’t let me down yet! Both the Tories and labour have deivered it consistently, at every turn! It’s like having a crystal ball!
So a general election, conducted at the very worst time imaginable, between the most unelectable pair of *-wits we’ve ever been faced with (I’ll Presume Jezza v Boris) is pretty much nailed on!
****ing beam me up!
From the independent article...
It concludes that “most situations can be managed using existing legislation” – by setting aside fuel for “essential services” and allowing and relaxing hours-limits for lorry drivers.
So what happens when an overtired trucker falls asleep at the wheel and causes an accident?
Another problem of a GE is the likes of the Fararge will gain momentum with his need of some form of power/leadership/attention of any sort representing the far right.
Another problem of a GE is the likes of the Fararge will gain momentum with his need of some form of power/leadership/attention of any sort representing the far right.
Given the up and downside to FPTP the likes of Farage will dent and split the right wing vote from the tories, a similar problem exits with the Independent Group MP's some will go through on name recognition if they can connect with the electorate and stand for something sensible.
Surely having a GE and giving people a vote is an assault on democracy?
So what happens when an overtired trucker falls asleep at the wheel and causes an accident?
Price worth paying?
Surely having a GE and giving people a vote is an assault on democracy?
😆
Another election means I get paid for a day working in the Polling Station so its not all bad news!
Whoopee you may be able to afford 1 piece of fresh fruit! 🙂
At the moment I am hoping for a compelling allotment issue as Spring seems a bit early and Stammer reluctantly taking charge of the Opposition Asylum
Not that many looking that good in this one.
Geoff Cox could easily have a career as a voice over for Marvel baddies.
So what happens when an overtired trucker falls asleep at the wheel and causes an accident?
Rees-Mogg will blame excessive EU working hours and lack of control in the UK, so confirming his wish for a hard Brexshit.
I'm on tender hoops waiting for this result!
Lost it big, she still had no clue does she
Free vote on no deal. How will that go?
Defeated again. What now?
Surely she has to resign. Delivering Brexit is her only goal and she has failed utterly
As I've said before, Brexit won't happen.
JP
Free vote on no deal. How will that go?
The assumption is that she has control over how her party votes on this issue. It will free up some cabinet ministers but those who love no deal are nearly all on the back bench and have stuck their fingers up
Corbyn lost his bit of paper on 2nd vote though
I’m on tender hoops waiting for this result!
You want to get some cream for that.
Free vote is for her cabinet, so the Brexiteers don’t have to resign. Can’t even do that properly 🙂
Brexit, it was bad while it lasted.
Now in its death throes.
and I did hear that correctly
This part is key, we still need to revoke if we do not extend.
The house can "decline to approve", but it's already in motion. Unless they vote for *ANYTHING ELSE* it's still going to happen, with their approval or not.
As I’ve said before, Brexit won’t happen.
It ain't over until someone sings.
😀
Anyone watching C4 news?
Some MPs seem to be actively begging us not to vote for their party.
Those that decided to be independant while this pile of deceits upon deceits plays out were wise.
On BBC here, Luton has some fun Brexit views - I wish they would ask the people who want no deal what it means.
So governmental paralysis till the no deal vote, followed by further governmental paralysis?
I don't get this bit.
Let's assume tomorrow night they vote down no deal option
Then, on Thursday, they vote down article 50 extension. What happens? They can't agree a new deal, they can't have no deal and they don't have more time. There are no more options. So we crash out against the will of parliament as article 50 is already in motion and that out trumps tomorrow's vote?
So will we have another mini 'No deal vote' thread tommow evening as the mods just closed the other one?
Keep this thread rolling but just for wild conjecture and mud slinging...
They can’t agree a new deal
They could, if someone proposed one. And they could propose one.
Most likely to be a delay now. It's now an argument about how long the delay will be......
Even the eu might be arguing over that one.
Bugger.
I don’t get this bit.
Let’s assume tomorrow night they vote down no deal option
Then, on Thursday, they vote down article 50 extension. What happens? They can’t agree a new deal, they can’t have no deal and they don’t have more time. There are no more options. So we crash out against the will of parliament as article 50 is already in motion and that out trumps tomorrow’s vote?
If there is no new legislation then we're out on 29th regardless of what votes there are.
Brexit is basically over. The non-nutters know that a No Deal would be so catastrophic it cannot be allowed to happen. Working back from that they also know that any form of Brexit is worse than staying in, and that the softer the Brexit the better it is, but the less likely it will please enough of the pillocks that actually want Brexit. So the only conclusion is to say a collective, and thoroughly deserved, ‘**** you’ to the gammons and deal with them later. About time too.
I don’t get this bit.
Let’s assume tomorrow night they vote down no deal option
Then, on Thursday, they vote down article 50 extension. What happens? They can’t agree a new deal, they can’t have no deal and they don’t have more time. There are no more options. So we crash out against the will of parliament as article 50 is already in motion and that out trumps tomorrow’s vote?
State of emergency, dissolve Parliament, activate the Queen?
brexit is basically over
Heres hoping. Logically speaking, almost half the country don't want any part in it, and enough leave voters don't want to risk the predicted economic suicide or actually don't really give a toss about brexit and just voted leave for a bit of a laugh. That leaves a minority of shouty hardcore gammon, of which only a very small number might actually get more than shouty. I'm hoping the last 2 years was just an elaborate charade to give the illusion we were trying to go through with it.
Guess we'll find out tomorrow
What happens when they vote down no deal but then vote against a delay the day after?
dissolve Parliament
In acid?
They need us more than we need them, remember.
Ah, of course. I was forgetting.
What happens when they vote down no deal but then vote against a delay the day after?
Erm, logic says revoke A50. Can't be that easy though.
What happens when they vote down no deal but then vote against a delay the day after?
The rest of the world shrugs it shoulders and laughs pityingly at a formerly respected nation making a bellend of itself?
Just in case everyone has forgotten that about 99% of the world doesn’t give a ha’penny jizz about this nonsense.
May is apparently not whipping and allowing a free vote to the Conservatives tomorrow.
That all but guarantees 'no deal' is off the table.
That's great news to my ears, but politically where does that leave us? What next?
Idealy a retraction of article 50, or maybe as second choice, ref2.
What happens when they vote down no deal but then vote against a delay the day after?
We then leave with no deal, unless a deal can be agreed on between then and the 29th.
No deal is the default state. If there's no deal in place, and no extension, we leave under the default terms, i.e. no deal.
IF they vote yes to an extension we're in the hands of the EU as to whether they give us the extension. If not, we leave with no deal. If yes, literally anything could happen...
Well, looks like its all over apart from the cleaners coming in to wipe the spittle from the mouths of the dinosaur Brexiteers.
And for the Lawyers to put in thier expense claims, obvz.
And for us to claim back the £6bn this horsecrap government have wasted on a scheme to split the country morally and socially, and evict them from any form of government for the next 200yrs.
The UK is most certainly on the map. As a joke.
I Would someone like to explain to me how not delaying brexit immediately results in a no deal exit? As it seems in that situation revoking A50 would be the only sensible option.
Well, looks like its all over apart from the cleaners coming in to wipe the spittle from the mouths of the dinosaur Brexiteers.
It most definitely isn't. Like I said a few pages ago
it’s like a group of friends in a houseshare. they’ve handed their notice in on the current place and the landlord will be kicking them out and changing the locks in three weeks.Some of them want to move to a cottage in the countryside, some want to go to a city centre flat, a couple want to live in a van, only one wants to sleep in a shop doorway. But if you don’t get something sorted the doorway is the default.
We can mostly agree that being homeless is "not the preferred option", but until we actually agree to do something else (as in settle on one particular option that has been offered by the EU, not just agree on a vague "anything but no deal") then we're still out with no deal on the 29th.
edit:
I Would someone like to explain to me how not delaying brexit immediately results in a no deal exit?
Hopefully my quote above explains it. We leave on the 29th unless parliament agrees an alternative and has it accepted by the EU. It's not quite immediate, but it's only a couple of weeks away.
I'm naturally cynical, one side of me thinks this whole debacle was engineered. I think the Forex traders have already made thier money now, so it doesn't really matter any more to them.
The country has already suffered what little industry it has moving out in significant numbers, and we're an international laughing stock, but it's ok, certain people have already done quite nicely out of it.
Business as usual. Nothing to see.
Erm, logic says revoke A50. Can’t be that easy though.
I’m sure mikewsmith said it just involves sending an email ....iirc exact timeframe is a few minutes
As it seems in that situation revoking A50 would be the only sensible option.
Does it look like we have a sensible PM, or anyone sensible that could realistically replace her before the 21st, that would do that?
iirc exact timeframe is a few minutes
But you also need a week to pass the necessary legislation through both houses.
Just looked on skybet....
__________
"Government No Deal Motion"
Motion approved 1/25
Motion not approved 9/1
_________
So does that mean the bookies are thinking no deal is way out in front?
I've generally found them to be quite a good indicator of what's going on.
Read the motion.
The no deal motion rules out (or at least says they don't want it) a no deal, doesn't it? So they're saying if you put £25 on it passing (i.e. no deal isn't wanted) you'll get £26 back. So they're thinking it's basically a done deal, no deal will be rejected. Which isn't a bad thing, but we still don't have an alternative.
And yet….
You'd think we'd all be fully supportive of Corbyn's "long game", now the clock has ticked down, and he's finally revealed his hand… why are we so disillusioned with Labour under his leadership…? I can't think why…
The motion reads:
“That this House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework on the Future Relationship on 29 March 2019; and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement.”
Motion approve = the house declines to agree to a no deal brexit. Which is almost guaranteed to be the case. But as the 2nd part says 'leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law... unless there is an agreement'
That motion will get voted in, so no 'no deal'.
Then the extension will most likely get voted in. And I hope the EU says no to an extension, but this is the thing that could go wither way. In part they need us so giving us an extension would increase the chance of us not leaving. But also they've given us their final deal so they may see no point in an extension which would lead to months more negotiating.
I say, like a toxic relationship - rip the band aid off. You lose the 'benefits' that come with it, but do away with all the crap that also comes with it. It will be hard for a good while, but you'll come out stronger eventually. And don't forget to delete their number so you don't end up drunk texting at 2am begging to be taken back... 😀
well its been great !!!
That's not suprising Kimbers, a small amount have swung conservative - but a lot have swung Green or Ukip because they feel like Corbyn supports neither of their views. The Greens will be the young vote and the Ukip vote will be coming from their northern heartlands.
If Corbyn had gone with one or the other strongly, then he wouldn't have lost them so many votes - but he instead tried to be clever and is reaping the reward.
Like we all knew and predicted - well, save for DazH.
Genuine question. Assuming all plays out and there is another ‘people’s vote’z what exactly would the options presented be a assume one is remain but we’ve just spent 2 years not being able to agree and exit so what exactly is the other option. I can’t see how a credible, achievable option can be voted for ?
The no deal motion rules out (or at least says they don’t want it) a no deal, doesn’t it?
No, not sure even one of the amended motions would, until there is a majority for another course of action, no deal is the default.
Corbyn never mentioned a 2nd ref once after the vote loss tonight, just a GE.
If he won't listen to the membership/ labour voters what does he expect will happen at a GE ?
Ah, OK.... Thanks for clearing that up.
Personally, I'm hoping for an extension at least. Merely because there is a massive wait to get an appointment at the Einbürgerungsamt to hand in my paperwork for citizenship.
A long as I hand in my paperwork before the UK leaves the EU I get to keep my British passport as well as getting a German one.
As it seems in that situation revoking A50 would be the only sensible option.
Does it look like we have a sensible PM, or anyone sensible that could realistically replace her before the 21st, that would do that?
Cleverer people than me say that we can't revoke Art50 without Parliamentary approval....and that's not going to happen
The gov can recind A50 notification, they already have the power to. In theory they can also change/remove the date that we are due to Leave without parilimentary approval… in practise all hell would break out if they used that power… so new legislation needs passing through both houses. As you say, doesn't look likely… but that would be the choice of our politicians, esp our government… this is still all in their hands, for a few weeks more. Any damage is on them.
The no deal motion is the one taking it off the table. So that's the bookies' favourite.
Does it look like we have a sensible PM, or anyone sensible that could realistically replace her before the 21st, that would do that?
It's not clear that there is any party that would have a leader that could do that without the party disintegrating. I'm not so sure this problem was caused by the electorate as much as having two parties that have been split over this issue for too long.
Corbyn never mentioned a 2nd ref once after the vote loss tonight, just a GE.
If he won’t listen to the membership/ labour voters what does he expect will happen at a GE ?
He's clinging to the hope that the economy tanking will see him ushered in as our glorious saviour from Tory free marketeers.
I guarantee this is what is playing in his head right now