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[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39755124

No great surprise in the unity and speed of agreement.
Six weeks to wait until the new gov - still Tory with some new faces - and it's brexit team show us how capable they are.

A harsh lesson in economic reality coming our way; did anyone really think UK could develop a position of strength to negotiate from? Deluded - it was always going to be 27 v 1 and the balance of power was also clear since referendum result.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 1:07 pm
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In a letter to the leaders of the EU-27 ahead of the summit, Mr Tusk wrote that progress on "people, money and Ireland" must come before negotiations on the EU's future relationship with the UK.

As she arrived in Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated that only once substantial progress had been made on the separation talks with the UK, could negotiations turn to the UK's future relationship with the EU.

The separation talks will seek to agree the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, as well as Britons living in the EU, plus a settlement for the UK's financial obligations as an EU member state. A deal must also be agreed to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Mr Tusk wrote.

French President Francois Hollande said there would inevitably be "a price and a cost for the UK - it's the choice that was made".

"We must not be punitive, but at the same time it's clear that Europe knows how to defend its interests, and that Britain the UK will have a less good position tomorrow outside the EU than today in the EU."

But....But....But...we were told we'd be better off if we left the EU.....does that mean that we have been lied to? 😉


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 1:28 pm
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Turns out you can put a price on both freedom and stupidity 🙂


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 1:39 pm
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Edukaotr it's pretty much impossible fir the BoE to have held the £ steady given the shock of the Referendum result. Market forces if that magnitude just can't be "adjusted" in cases like this. Look at the Swiss central bank in the end they had to givenup trying to hold the chf down. Look at Greece despite all the EU/ECB proclamations of suport the market just stopped buying and forced the eurozone to step in leaving them "holding the hot potato"

On Macron I think he has won, its just by how much. The UMP voters I know are focused on a strong showing in the Parliamentary elections to foil Macron. As above I think a Le Oen Presidency would find rhe establishmebt doing all it could to block her in Frace and at the EU. BTW the BBC had a good piece on the negotitions and likely stances of major coubtries and they agreed it was hard to call what Macron may/may not do.

More posturing from EU as they vote through their negotiating stance document.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 2:13 pm
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@somafunk - our [b]obligations[/b] are zero (**) - we are not even obliged to pay the pensions of UK MEP's. The EU has only a [b]moral[/b] argument and is attempting to bluff its way past the German elections. May will have a massive majority and a term till 2022 so will have a much stronger hand to go with WTO if the EU plays silly buggars.

Ireland and EU/UK citizens rights are both things the UK wanted to agree before A50 but where blocked by the EU.

EDIT: there is a strong argument we are owed money from assets like our shareholding in the EIB (my gut feel is we will stay invested in it on the basis it remains in London).

Also we have the ludicrous position from the EU that the UK should be liable for lease payments on office space of EU agencies if they decide to leave the UK. Just ridiculous 🙂


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 2:19 pm
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Ireland and EU/UK citizens rights are both things the UK wanted to agree before A50 but where blocked by the EU.

#jambafact

Angrier posts, tweets, blogs from Brexiteers, as they feel the loss of control of negotiations.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 2:32 pm
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May will have a massive majority and a term till 2022 so will have a much stronger hand to go with WTO if the EU plays silly buggars.

How does delivering A50 then instead of starting the negotiations straight away knowing that the timeline is tight calling a general election fall on the playing silly buggers scale?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 3:11 pm
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IMO a pretty decent commentary on the EU document

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/eu-brexit-guidelines-document-really-means/


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 4:59 pm
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@cornholio - we can start atraightaway on the 9th June. The EU weren't even ready till today's agreement. So the GE has cost at most 5 weeks, nothing really. As I said before IMO nothing substantive is going to be achieved until the German elections are done in October.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:01 pm
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From the document:

Negotiations under Article 50 TEU will be conducted in transparency and as a single package. In accordance with the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, individual items cannot be settled separately.

To that effect, the first phase of negotiations will aim to:

– provide as much clarity and legal certainty as possible to citizens, businesses, stakeholders and international partners on the immediate effects of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the Union;

– settle the disentanglement of the United Kingdom from the Union and from all the rights and obligations the United Kingdom derives from commitments undertaken as Member State.

The European Council will monitor progress closely and determine when sufficient progress has been achieved to allow negotiations to proceed to the next phase.

Doesn't that seem to be mutually exclusive?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:14 pm
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Ireland and EU/UK citizens rights are both things the UK wanted to agree before A50 but where blocked by the EU.

No the UK government didn't and anyway the EU is legally obliged not to start negotiations before A50 is triggered.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:31 pm
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anyway the EU is legally obliged not to start negotiations before A50 is triggered.

See, #ItsAllTheEUsFault


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:45 pm
 mrmo
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The European Council will monitor progress closely and determine when sufficient progress has been achieved to allow negotiations to proceed to the next phase.

So who is in control?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:48 pm
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May will have a massive majority and a term till 2022 so will have a much stronger hand to go with WTO if the EU plays silly buggars.

?

How does the number of people who voted for TM have ANY influence on what the WTO will/might think or for that matter the EU?

I keep seeing this being trotted out but I can't for the life of me work out WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS...


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:54 pm
 mrmo
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May will have a massive majority and a term till 2022 so will have a much stronger hand to go with WTO if the EU plays silly buggars.

And Argentina says Malvinas or no deal then what?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 5:59 pm
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@cornholio - we can start atraightaway on the 9th June. The EU weren't even ready till today's agreement. So the GE has cost at most 5 weeks, nothing really. As I said before IMO nothing substantive is going to be achieved until the German elections are done in October.

Article 50 was delivered on the 29th March and the politicians are prepared to wait until June to start talking? There were 9 months to get the plan together so why not have the team ready and already sitting in Brussels pushing to start? After all isn't there a desire to get it done in 18 months so it can be ratified within 24. You seem prepared to wait until October. It is as though no one on either side cares enough to actually want to start.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:15 pm
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May will have a massive majority and a term till 2022 so will have a much stronger hand to go with WTO if the EU plays silly buggars.

Makes no difference to them.

This idea is just electoral smoke and mirrors.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:16 pm
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Im seeing lots of EU demand this or ....or what

really am starting to lean towards **** Europe lets see what happens to be honest, rather than playing along nicely


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:17 pm
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Makes no difference to them.

Absolutely none whatsoever. But, y'know, as long as people keep believing it, then, when it all comes crashing down under WTO, you know whose fault it will be don't you?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:23 pm
 AD
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I'm honestly not seeing any 'demands' that could not have reasonably be foreseen. One of the reasons I voted remain.

Why on earth do leavers think we would get a better deal outside the EU?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:27 pm
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Why on earth do leavers think we would get a better deal outside the EU?

Why on earth are leavers going about thinking the EU is going to do us any kind of favours? It's business FFS not bloody splitting the bill with your mates..

They don't "owe the UK" any kind of preferential treatment..

Can a Leaver tell me why they think the EU might?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:31 pm
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Didn't the UK agree to all these rule for exiting when we joined? Any subsequent rule change since about leaving I presume we'd also agreed to?

Don't really see anything happening that we won't have expected (and agreed to). I'd guess most Brexiters have never been divorced?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:37 pm
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Can a Leaver tell me why they think the EU might?

Because they need us more than we need them and / or we won't buy their cheese/ cars/ wine [other product of you're choice] and / or don't they know who we are.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:40 pm
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this is going to get very bitter and twisted business or not.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:40 pm
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Only if you believe the utter bobbins being pedalled by the press Jamba and his cohorts. It will get portrayed by the swivel eyed loons ad Europe being mean to us. We are trying to play poker and we haven't been dealt any cards.we voted not to have any cards not because Europe won't give any.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 6:56 pm
 igm
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mickmcd - Member
this is going to get very bitter and twisted business or not.

What do you mean going to get?

The whole Brexit campaign was bitter and twisted and the Brexies remain bitter and twisted.

Wholly predictable.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:02 pm
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Im seeing lots of EU demand this or ....or what

we want free trade with them so who do you think gets to call the shots?
they are not demands they are the rules of the club. You dont get to leave and then decide on new rules that allow you to stay.

really am starting to lean towards **** Europe lets see what happens to be honest, rather than playing along nicely
the really massive economy that is responsible for 435 of your trade is seriously adversely affected whilst they have 4% of theirs affected

bad for both but much much worse for us...whether this is catastrophic or just terrible remains to be seen.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:02 pm
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Thing is Nipper, we will be buying their cheese..at whatever price we have to pay for it. We only produce 1/3 of the food that we eat (in terms of where the ingredients are produced). Do you really believe we can source all our fresh food from across the ocean as easily as we at present do. I think we need Europe more than they need us. Needing the means to urgently feed 60 million folk doesn't really put to in a very strong position to negotiate competitive prices for stuff IMO.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:08 pm
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Needing the means to urgently feed 60 million folk doesn't really put to in a very strong position to negotiate competitive prices for stuff

+1

Does seem a tad mad to have to ship your food from the other side of the world as well rather than Calais-Dover.

I think there's gonna be a gradually slow burn on prices of stuff going up as this farce plays out.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:20 pm
 igm
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And for those suggesting it's 27 against 1 - you're wrong.

At the last official count it was 27.481 against 0.519.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:31 pm
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Marine Le Pen has removed Frexit from her political agenda. What do you think of that, Jamba?

So I can vote for a Highly pro-EU candidate who will act in Europe and France's interest or an EU-neutral candidate who will act in France's interest. Any hope of an exit-ally on the European mainland just evaporated.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:34 pm
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Any sauce for that Ed? Interested.

She's said she'll put DuPont-Aignon in as PM if elected. He was scrap-the-Euro-leave-the-EU-right-wing-loon wasn't he?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 7:52 pm
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TF1 news, it'll be on their website on replay. "Le journal de 20h". She's also dropped getting rid of the Euro.

And, yes, she joined forces with Dupont-Aignan who is anti-EU. Go figure. That's on [url= https://news.sfr.fr/actualites/politique/ ]SFR[/url] no sign of the change of policy there yet though.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 8:05 pm
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@ chickenman. If you read any of my other posts you will guess I am being facetious.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 8:05 pm
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TF1 news, it'll be on their website on replay. "Le journal de 20h". She's also dropped getting rid of the Euro.

Jesus, impressive set of U-turns. Will have a look at TF1 now. Cheers.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 8:09 pm
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4:20 on. "la sortie de l'Euro et revenir au Franc n'est plus la priorité".


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 8:30 pm
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Yes read it too.

She wants Fillon votes, and he was pro eu.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 8:31 pm
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She's gone quiet on the EU since the poll that showed an unbeatable majority in favour of EU membership. All that remains is a referendum, maybe. Dropping a return to the Franc (which was equally dependent on a referendum) as a priority shows she's realised that she can't win the presidential election with anti-EU policies and that even if she wins then the promised referendums would go against her. It's pragmatism, for once. But not enough IMO. We'll find out next weekend.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 8:46 pm
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I have got my fingers tightly crossed that Le Pen wins so that the toxic EU project can finally unravel. The EU project is dead and it's time it was disbanded and reverted back to a collaboration of nations each with their own monetary and fiscal policies.

I fondly remember the days of booking a summer holiday based on which currency sterling was strong against and enjoying the culture that each country offered.

The EU project stinks and as far as I am concerned it's Germanic expansion without war!


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:07 pm
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sometimes its hard to tell what posts are sarcasm and irony and which ones are heartfelt and sincere
#poeslaw


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:12 pm
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Quite an interesting piece in the Telegraph on the EU's likely tactics with input from Yanis Voroufakis:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/yanis-varoufakis-brexit-advice-theresa-may-avoid-negotiating/

Personally I think even trying to negotiate will be a waste of time - better to tell the 27 members to stuff their divorce claim, focus on WTO and wait till the German car manufacturers (amongst others) start to put the pressure on Merkel.


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:24 pm
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Hello just5minutes - this is reality calling.

no deal would be an even worse disaster and don't believe any nonsense about they need us more than we need them. Walk away without paying he bills due then we will get well and truely shafted. No market for the cars assembled here - all those plants will close and move to poland or similar. We have nothing to bargain with at all. Zero. Zilch


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:30 pm
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Brexiters still oping for the fabled German intervention

But German car bosses are unwilling to undermine Merkel's position. Merkel recently reiterated that EU governments would not negotiate Brexit terms until London had triggered the irreversible "article 50" leaving process, before adding pointedly that business leaders should show similar restraint.

That sentiment was quickly echoed by Matthias Wissmann, head of Germany's influential auto industry lobby, the VDA.

"Everything must be done to allow the unfettered flow of goods and services," he told reporters. "But there is one clear priority: we must stand together among the 27 EU member states."

Wissmann's counterpart at the UK's SMMT car industry group also warned UK lawmakers that BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen Group may not push too hard for free trade.

German carmakers see "Europe as more important than the UK market," SMMT chief Mike Hawes told a parliamentary committee in January. "They will align with what is best for Germany."


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:33 pm
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And who is to say that the German govt won't do a Nissan?


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:43 pm
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Brexiterrs: Oi, Europe, **** off, you need us more than we need you. We'll go WTO cos we're awesome.

Reality of WTO sets in.

Brexiteers: Erm, Germany, lend a brother a dollar, man.

#ItsAllTheEUsFault


 
Posted : 29/04/2017 9:47 pm
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