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This export bonanza, caused by the drop in the value of the [s]country[/s] pound, where is it?
Had a mooch but it's been a long time since i did any economics and the stuff from the OFS suggests (to me) that it's not happened, but i could be just looking at the graphs upside down.
Does anyone know? Is the UK now shuttling tea and cakes to Johnny Furener in unimaginably copious quantities?
As an update: Everyones favourite former Tory leadership contender Michael Gove is being interviewed on Five Live. He's saying that when he said £350 million a week. It'll probably actually be £100 million.
He's not saying where he's getting his figures, but as he's a [s]shameless snivelling, lying, self-serving little cockweasel[/s] honourable, intelligent and honest man, who has been a font of truth throughout, so I'm sure he's right.
You really would never tire of punching him, would you?
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This export bonanza, caused by the drop in the value of the country pound, where is it?
[url= https://order-order.com/2017/02/21/uk-food-and-drink-exports-hit-all-time-high/ ]Exports [/url]are doing very well, growth in most sectors.
Who is benefitting from this "export bonanza"?
Large corporations who don't pay tax?
Powerful and detailed data on that site, mefty. That will certainly silence those that doubted the cash-u-copia of exports would off-set the "imported" inflation.
The fact that "UK exports of salmon to France up by 31%" "last year" (page dated 21st Feb 2017) is a devastating blow to the remoaners.
Taken a weight of me, that data has.
More millions in the freedom bank, every day.
EDIT: the sort of thing i was hoping for is like [url= https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp ]this[/url]
To me, the BoP does look like it moved favorably from S^^^ to just cack, in the last Q of 2016, but its been a long time since school. Interested to see if it continues to "improve" as other stuff on ONS suggests it's not going so chirpy for Q1 this year.
The fact that "UK exports of salmon to France up by 31%" "last year" (page dated 21st Feb 2017) is a devastating blow to the remoaners.
The only difference Brexit has made to that is the GBP value we get, not the appetite to sell it to France. The rise is more down to poor market prices the prior year than any Brexit revival.
Brexit isn't looking good for us right now.
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Clearer on this Tradin Economics/ONS graph
Can we see that chart in $ ?
Or in Intl$ ?
Pound has dropped in value, so even if level of exports stayed exactly the same their value in GBP would go up.
Clearer on this Tradin Economics/ONS graph
Looks clear that the post-vote pound nose-dive made foreign currency receipts convert to more Sterling, yes.
edit:as pointed out by 2 other people (so far) above
Thank you mefty, but is that goods and services - is there a link for more context? ("no reporting without context")
So British exports measured in pound have risen, by not as much as the pound has fallen.
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/09/uk-trade-deficit-widens-september-exports-fall-pound-drop ]A more reliable source than Mefty's order-order.[/url]
It's going down on the graph and seems to end before 2017. Where are the current figures?
Those are the latest figures on that site: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports (select 5yr and Spline for mefty's chart)
There is a bit more here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade
we are just about to start a large scale cancer genetics study
over a 1million sequencing budget is huge for us,
trouble is we can now afford to do 15% less sequencing than we planned on, to try and keep the power we'd like
weve been getting quotes from all over the place- literally, it now looks like rather than using institutes in london, cambridge or edinburgh as wed planned, we will have to collaborate with a large chinese institution who want scientific credit in the study, we will have to be very careful with the contract!
Trouble is almost everything we buy has risen by a similar amount, so we are having to look at everything very carefully
But at least we are finding ways round the brexit pounding of the pound
the worry is how much lower is it going to go?
Exports are ok because the global economy, and the EU are ticking along ok, therefore keeping demand high not because the UK has boosted it's desirability as a country to trade with...
The people I know who voted out are all, at various times, grasping hold of all kinds of random proof points to try and make their case, rather than admit they may have made a poor decision. Unfortunately, because the quality and reliable data sources contradict their beliefs, all they have to show for it is lousy stuff like that link above, or just wild, subjective claims...
I went to an Experian seminar yesterday where a team of senior economists gave us a data-driven analysis of the UK economy and the impact of Brexit - which was a) well-sourced and b) bearish - negative impacts from imported inflation and reduced immigration especially. Their case was about as well-informed and compelling as you can get...
So what does my idiot Brexit-voting boss say when she gets back to the office (in a company which is officially and publicly pro-Remain and stands to suffer quite seriously from Brexit)? "I disagreed with their view on Brexit"... like she thinks her judgement exceeds the informed view of experienced professional analysts! Shockingly stupid, and too stupid to keep quiet about it...
grasping hold of all kinds of random proof points to try and make their case
The Remain camp is just as guilty of this I think.
(speaking as a Remainer myself)
The Remain camp is just as guilty of this I think.(speaking as a Remainer myself)
Yes - as is the case in every argument - but in this specific debate, Remainers didn't make some massive decision impacting the whole country both now and in the future on the back of spurious evidence, plus ALL the well-informed sources suggest that Brexit will have a negative impact and is already doing so... there simply isn't any compelling evidence to support the Leave case, only sentiment...
For e.g. my boss could only refute Experian's view with 'I think', she doesn't have an alternative data-based analysis - because there isn't one to support her position...
Confirmation bias innit.
ALL the well-informed sources
This isn't true at all - there are some very good economists on the leave side, such as Gerald Lyons, Patrick Minford etc. Patrick Minford's analysis of trade is fascinating and completely counter intuitive - whether he is right is another matter.
The down slope re exports seems to be common at beginning of year, unlike most ONS figures these are not seasonally adjusted.
So Putin reckons lepen is a safer bet than Trump...
[url=
https://www.ft.com/content/ae05ff5e-29a4-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7 ]Russian hackers targeting Emmanuel Macron, cyber experts warn[/url]
Brexit has been a big win for Vladimir so helping lepen obvious next step
mefty - MemberALL the well-informed sources
This isn't true at all - there are some very good economists on the leave side, such as Gerald Lyons, Patrick Minford etc. Patrick Minford's analysis of trade is fascinating and completely counter intuitive - whether he is right is another matter.
These people seem to think he isn't right:
Professor Winters also points out that the modelling of Minford’s group bizarrely assumes the EU will waive its standards on goods imports from the UK post-Brexit, which implies precisely the sort of deep trade deal which the Economists for Brexit have been consistently arguing that the UK does not need to bother pursuing.
To be fair, we'll keep following EU standards deal or no deal… manufacturers will be in no rush to let the UK 'take back control' on standards, and the government would have to be nuts to create divergence.
but TNUMTWNT?
[url= https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c ]Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk
Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate[/url]
These people seem to think he isn't right:
Of course, but that is because he does not use the "gravity" model of world trade which many others are using as he does not think it works for a change which involves a big shock in trade terms. He explains it all in his papers as well as the significance of the other areas where he has been criticised. As I said I don't know whether he is right, but it is always interesting to read someone who approaches an issue from a completely different angle.
This export bonanza, caused by the drop in the value of the country pound, where is it?
As above the news has been prettybpositive and of course wildy better than the predicted Armageddon. IMF recently upgraded global growth despite originally predicting a global recession post Brexit. None of that is good enough for Remainers though.
Kimbers Deutsche is in free fall, it was one of the banks most active in US sub-prime.
Kimbers of course Putin is enjoying Brexit, the EU has had a massive political agenda to expand Eastwards accepting membership from very poor nations in order to weaken Russia. The US and UK can't do much on Russian sanctions as we do so little business with them unlike the broader EU, the sanctions on Russia have been very painful and Putin is hoping to use EU weakness to soften the (flakey) resolve of Germany to wind back sanctions. Of course the EU was a key player in antagonising Russia over Ukraine.
Just in case it has slipped anyone's mind, we are not post-Brexit, we haven't left yet. EU trade agreements are still in place.
As above the news has been prettybpositive
#jambafact
Might be good for the IT industry as there is plenty of skill here, now it's 10% cheaper.
How much of that IT skill is migrant labour?
I'll except "shit loads" as an answer, if the figures are hard to pin down.
At least Orange 5s will seem competitively priced soon
Depends what you mean by migrant. Immigrant, yes - itinerant, not much.
Comment on farming from a few pages back. My view but will defer to posters like Welsh who are "in the business"
WTO Tariffs are protectionist for farming. There are well established and good reasons for this which I support. As a food exporter a country like France wants tariff free access to export markets. As a food net importer countries like the UK would find WTO protects our farmers in general. Now higher food prices are inflationary and controversial but the UK would be free to agree reduced tariff deals with whom we choose.
In particular in reference to France the farmers are pretty confrontational and powerful, blocking roads etc. WTO tariffs on food with the UK would lead to a lot of trouble and farmers have already thrown eggs at Macron and feel he is no friend of theirs. There is plenty of tension already with cheap EU imports of low quality food with final processing in France and re-labelled as French
A quick comment on French election / Le Pen. Very amusing yesterday as Macron had a meeting with "the management" of the Whirlpool factory threatened with closure in the North of France, Marine's home turf. She turned up on the picket line to stand with "the workers" whilst ex-banker Macron is inside with the suits, she of course stole all the headlines 🙂
WTO Tariffs are protectionist for farming
Aren't EU ones?
Are you aware that a lot of what we want to eat won't grow in this country?
Are you also aware that if farmers can get higher prices for their food, that's going to be us paying for it? So food prices will rise?
U.K. Regrets Brexit for First Time Since Referendum, Poll Says...
[url= https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/u-k-regrets-brexit-for-first-time-since-referendum-poll-says ]YouGov[/url]
U.K. Regrets Brexit for First Time Since Referendum, Poll Says...
Which is still in the margin of error, and really hasn't moved much since the referendum. What is shows though, despite what May et al may claim there is no coming together. There is no acceptance that it is the right thing to do.
A soft exit, ie looking to Norway or Switzerland might have been a way of uniting a majority but the car crash that is unfolding....
The EU set out its position days after the referendum, the UK stil hasn't got a clue IMO. WTO rules here we come and how long till the IMF comes back around?
It's remarkable that May keeps repeating that the UK is coming together, as though her wishes might actually make it a reality.
Who does she think she is kidding?
The vitrol on social media only send to have got worse!
The vitrol on social media only send to have got worse!
The results in various elections and referendums have shown that social media is a useless indicator of public sentiment.
I see the Tour de Yorkshire is on this weekend. I note that our future Yorkshire prime minister Gary Verity is involved. So it will be renamed the Freedom Tour de Yorkshire.
Well I suppose the good thing in that article is:
The EU will "for sure" reach a free trade deal with the UK after Brexit, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said, shortly after Mrs Merkel spoke.
...[Mrs Merkel] went on to say "we are also ready to make a fair offer to British citizens in Germany and the rest of Europe.
"They are an important part of our community and should remain so."
The bad thing.. well. just read the Comments!
As expected, talk of the EU being "bullies" and plenty of mentions of the war 🙄
The results in various elections and referendums have shown that social media is a useless indicator of public sentiment.
As is whatever source from which May's speechwriters are getting her opinions.
As expected, talk of the EU being "bullies" and plenty of mentions of the war
**** is un unreliable indicator of public sentiment.
[Insert media of choice for anyone who believes May when she says we're all coming together.]
kimbers - MemberIt's remarkable that May keeps repeating that the UK is coming together, as though her wishes might actually make it a reality.
Who does she think she is kidding?
The vitrol on social media only send to have got worse!
I happened to spend a few minutes "below the line" on a Channel 4 News post on facebook about Gina Miller launching her tactical voting drive yesterday.
Completely and utterly dispiriting. Every species of ignorance, stupidity, jingoism, racism, mysogyny and swivel-eyed paranoia you can imagine, loudly and openly proclaimed. I was really hoping half of them were bots because it's not a half of the country I could ever see myself "coming together" with.
On BBC [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39730326 ]item.[/url]
1429. Posted by Tony Pearce on 17 minutes agoThe first Brexit Vote was so divisive in the Country, with Families split and even Weddings called off because the couple disagreed. The last thing we need is yet another vote on it.
With.... 5 up votes, 5 down votes.
Made I laff. 😀