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Folks quoting “we do 60% of our trade outside the EU” may not be correct.
The confusion arises as I recall around the difference between exports and trade.
Again as I recall, at the last count 49% of our foreign trade is with the EU and countries via EU trade agreements takes it to 60%.
I may of course be entirely wrong - but I suspect not.
Jamba - for what it’s worth, while I think you are coming across as a little inexperienced and naive, I would say you are also coming across as idealistic and fairly clear on your principles.
Now I don’t think your principles will work in the real world, but good on you for having them and being willing to share them.
Totally agree with you zokes, maybe we are now just hoping the government has set itself up to fail on purpose and back down slowly.
"Look for your friends. But do not trust to hope. It has forsaken these lands."
Naive in the extreme to think that will all go swimmingly, IMO.
Are you some kind of enemy of the people. Jamba has explained everything will just be run through the photocopy and then EU tippexed out and replace with UK. Its only one character difference so should be easy enough.
[i]jambalaya wrote:[/i]
@aracer<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> the Labour party fought the 2017 GE on no freedom of movement, no single market and no customs union. I imagine some the left leaning / remain papers mentioned it. The first two they put in the manifesto the last one the shadow minister confirmed it in an interview.</span>
Exactly what has that got to do with anything I wrote?
I think this is the Nick Cohen article mentioned:
More good news about WTO Brexit. Not good news for farming.
https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/970952828679344129?s=21
Brexshit
Making everyone's holidays a bit shitter since 2019
https://news.sky.com/story/roaming-charges-may-be-back-after-brexit-11279406
Is there no way we can just apply the e tea charges to leave voters?
Or at least rename it Brexit roaming fee
How is the George Soros money being spent?
I was hoping for adverts on telly and billboards spelling out what a disaster it is.
I get emails and pop ups on Facebook but nothing in public.
Is there a mega ad campaign planned?
He's spending it with the Russians on having Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg and IDS meet with unfortunate accidents.
One can but hope...
in, no question.
we do 60% of our trade outside the EU
40% with EU, 20% outside EU on trade terms negotiated by the EU is the figure I have seen most often quoted. So yes, 60% outside the EU is correct, but 1/3 of that trade is under common trade terms that we've said goodbye to.
At least we'll be in the EMA, and I think they'll be happy with that, since MHRA are such a big contributing element. Just a shame they will be leaving, nobody wants to go to Amsterdam and they are already struggling to recruit.
He’s spending it with the Russians on having Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg and IDS meet with unfortunate accidents.
Don't see it Putin loves a weak EU/UK, gives him another chance to nibble off a bit more of the Ukraine
Even Hammond who apperas to be the least unhinged of the cabinet simnply does not get it "Philip Hammond has put Britain on a fresh collision course with Brussels after he warned the government could reject any Brexit trade deal not including financial services."
Does the really think that threat has any weight?
Who'd have thought it eh?
This would explain it all, possibly we can have David Davies sectioned - the Dunning–Kruger effect. I would happily acknowledge my own low ability in the context international trading arrangements other here of a brexit persuasion - SEEK COUNCILING NOW.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
WTO Brexit is the simplest and cleanest form
Bit like saying a guillotine is the simplest and cleanest way to deliver a haircut.
you wouldnt be the 1st person to say that about Davis!
wto looks a spiffing option
Impact asssessments finally available
no wonder gov tried to cover them up
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/971707669731008512
they are hurting UK based on foolsih ideology
look how badly fisheries hit outside of CU & SM, no wonder Tusk so brazen over fishing rights, he know he has uK by the balls
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/966629684086738944
"90% of global growth in the next 10 years will be outside of Europe"
A wonderful statistic to bandy around in support of global free trade.
BUT if your wages are 1000$ a year and that grows to 2000$ a year, you still won't be buying Scottish fish (or almost any other product made in one of the most expensive places on the planet). Assuming that growing global markets in developing and 3rd world nations are going to suddenly replace our European markets is stupidity if no-one can actually afford to buy anything we produce at a price we need to sell for to cover cost of production.
Of course we can offer them a few specialised things they cannot yet produce like pharma in return for even cheaper agricultural produce, thus destroying our own farms whilst reducing our resilience to world food shortages and other outside risks to our food security.
Have we done this yet?
EU freezes Brexit talks until Britain produces Irish border solution
Donald Tusk says negotiations will be 'Ireland first' from now on
I saw that. And I thought 'lolz'.
Then I started to cry (inside) realising that these pillocks are in charge of my country.
Take back control? We aren't qualified, please someone else come and control us!
woopsy
Those civil servants, poor things. Imagine having to write that report, be polite, apolitical, explain the uncertainties and that this is our best reasoning on available evidence, AND NOT USE CAPITALS TO SHOW JUST HOW BAD THINGS COULD BE!!!!
So… EU now ready to progress with talks based on Labour's current position, but not the government's one… so what next, if you are the kind of person who wants us to Leave, but understands that we need a deal that minimises the damage for both the UK and Ireland? Do you call for a general election and a Labour negotating team? What do those of us that still feel Brexit should be stopped do, in terms of the democratic process? Do we also just hope for a Labour team to take over, as being the most likely way forward for the country outside the EU… it do we hope that the Conservatives brick us into a corner from which the only ways out are economic isolation, or a flipping of the Leave decision… all geniune questions… I can't come close to answering them… can anyone else?
I’d rather have the Tories fail completely at brexit than labour achieve some crappy compromise.
But… failure can take two very different forms… failing and flipping is one thing (the newspapers would go nuts mind you)… but Leaving without any deal and transition period in place will be properly messy… not being a Labour person*, I still think I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than that kind of mess…
[ *I've only voted Labour once in my life, when the PM told me to either back her Brexit plan, or vote Labour… I listened… she hasn't returned the courtesy. ]
I’d rather have the Tories fail completely at brexit than labour achieve some crappy compromise.
why?
Hard crash-out leave won’t happen though, it’s too chaotic for the “grown-ups”™ THM to accept it. A de facto withdrawal of A50 has to be the odds-on favourite at this stage.
JY, as above, a hopeless failure will end in A50 being withdrawn. It will be a mess of course, but all options are a mess at this point.
I'm sure I've alluded to this before, but I think behind closed doors may has intentionally set things up to fail as a get out of jail policy.
No one wants hard brexit, well no one with any say anyway and we've painted ourselves into a corner of hard brexit or stay in, in all but name or stay in completely.
Vague extension of transition period, EU stalling talks over key issues, more MPs growing a pair and getting more vocal.
May's walking the tightrope within her own party, as is JC.
I think this is the application of brakes on the whole thing, as we all know you can't put a car into reverse when you're driving forward without ripping the gearbox to shreds, you need to come to standstill first.
JY, as above, a hopeless failure will end in A50 being withdrawn. It will be a mess of course, but all options are a mess at this point.
A50 will not be withdrawn there is too much ego. We will leave. Nothing will be agreed except a transition period. We will pay in as much if not more than now during this time. It will be extended. People will forget and it will be the new norm until someone else goes crazy and decides we should not follow one rule and the whole mess comes crashing down..
mattyfez: that implies some sort of machiavellian intelligence behind the whole thing, whereas all the available evidence points to a complete bit of a mess of incompetence and hubris.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it.
BTW despite EU asking David Davies said there was no point him attending the “negotiations” this week. AFAIK the transition negotiations have been completed.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it
That light at the end of the tunnel, you know the one that is getting brighter even though you are standing still, yep it's a steam train, a good old fashioned British Steam train, running on the last of the British coal, it's going to hit you and then you will know what no deal really means.
I'm not sure I'd give them the credit of calling them machiavellian, it just seems the least damaging, most logical way forward for all involved, even the politicians.
It's the only realistic option, I don't give May much credit but I can’t see her going for hard brexit, or her party or our 'sovereign Parliament' allowing it, purley for selfish short sighted reasons mind as it would both destroy the tory party, and put Labour in government at the next GE. That's the tory way, party before country.
@welsh I take your point but China now buys more Ferraris and BMWs than any other country. The future really does lie elsewhere. Over my career the growth in asset management has been spectacular outside developed markets like the EU. Aside from the UK businesses I have run have seen very little investment from Europe vs huge flows from Middle East and Asia.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it.
Really?, your interpretation of "excellent" is rather different to my interpretation.
It's a shambles with no good outcome, no matter how you try and fudge the numbers.
Time has come to stand up to those who continue to call for brexit and call them out for what they are - utterly deluded ****-wits
Maybe now I can be told why WTO is so good when it will put my prices up by 30% and possibly 6 people out of a job. If mediation is needed let the people involved get a lawyer.
I never voted for the WTO, I have no idea who runs it.
As an Englishman I will not be dictated to by an unelected foreign organisation.
That is not a Brexit for the hard working British taxpayer.
No surrender to the WTO.
China now buys more Ferraris and BMWs than any other country. The future really does lie elsewhere.
So what you are saying is we are better off in the EU as we don't have much to offer on our own, and you agree that all the brexiter talk of boycotting EU companies won't do much to scare the EU into giving us a better deal than what we already have.
WTO means a hard border in Ireland .
GFA in jeopardy and the return of troubles in Ireland , i guess it is all woth it for the Brexiters .
then you will know what no deal really means.
i assure you that all those who want WTO are not the ones likely to ever feel what it really means.
https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6
In great company
<p id="adb3" class="graf graf--p graf-after--figure">For those of you not familiar with Mauritania, it’s GDP is $4,714million (0.2% of the UK’s), 50% of its exports consist of Iron Ore, and between 1% and 17% of the population still live in slavery.</p>
<p id="960b" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">It appears that this is the country that Leave.UK wish to emulate. I am afraid that this is not a vision for Britain’s future that I can share.</p>
Jamba - point of order - the transition negotiations are not completed. the draft needs to be put into legally binding form. Only then will they be completed.
the irish border question still needs to be solved with some new solution or we fall on the backstop of no regulatory divergence or its hard crash out with no transition
this has all been obvious for months
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
exactly - so until May and co either agree no regulatory divergence on the island of ireland or come up with some other workable solution ie one not based on unicorns and fairy dust then there is no deal - no transition, no rights for UK expats in the EU and no trade deal. Also the transition has to be agreed in the next 3 weeks or companies will start moving into the EU - banks included.
I am really amused by all the frothing from Forter and Fox. All the EU are doing is put in legally binding terms the deal agreed at xmas. the UK has not given any proper proposals for anything other than the backstop so how can it be in the legal agreement? Its not up to the EU to propose anything and May and co have proposed nothing concrete at all
all;this was so obvious to anyone with half a brain
all;this was so obvious to anyone with half a brain
Sums up those who continue to push for Brexit perfectly
But blue passports though? Great, eh?
What really angers me is the status of UK citizens living in the EU, I don't think the UK government has ever mentioned or thought anything about that, all the talk has been around getting EU citizens out of the UK.
Utterly grotesque that our government is seemingly prepared to forsake the lives of millions of it's own citizens in the name of xenophobia.
Yup - used as bargaining chips then forgotten. these folk re going to lose their rights to free healthcare and many are effectivly uninsurable. A lot of them will have to come back to Britain at great financial and personal cost. Others will have to change citizenship. they will also lose their rights to move around the EU freely
There was a piece on the news a few days ago about a couple of financial companies that have moved to Paris since Brexit. Small companies happy with the move. The boss of one gave the guarantee of passporting rights as the main reason and an employee was very enthusiastic about the higher quality of life he could afford in Paris. Another report said companies were in the process of moving thousands of jobs..
A lot of expats don't have free healthcare rights as it is, TJ, and already pay for insurance. As for the right to move around Europe freely, the Shengen rules say they can, but there will prsumably be limits on how long and whether they can work. The ease with which Brits are getting French passports says that in France at least Brits already in France have nothing to worry about. The French authorities recieved 83 000 requests in 2016 and 60 000 in the first six months of 2017 - I've done searches for refusals and found non to date.
Alex Taylor was on the news recently brandishing his new French passport with a big grin - he kissed the passport and said "I reproach the Brexiters denying young people the right to do what I did". The English lady in our MTB club has been granted nationality and is just wading through the paperwork to get a passport.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it.
Yes, let's plough on with trying to trade with nations who are now fully aware that we renege on our financial commitments at the first opportunity. Even the fact that this is being proposed, albeit by a small, vocal, lunatic minority, must make potential trading partners slightly cautious about future arrangements. Especially as that minority seems to have a disproportionate influence politically.
"China now buys more Ferraris"
Amazing 😂
I had a right laugh at you a few months back when you used your yacht buying friend as a barometer for how Brexit was going, but you've really raised the bar with Chinese Ferraris
You're so out of touch and myopic that I actually feel sorry for you. You really are the walking embodiment of the blind men and the elephant tale.
What he really means is that Italie, France and Germany will negociate a deal with China to sell cars, and they are not really bothered about the UK deal .
Brexit thinking at its finest !
I was having a few beers last night with some mates, one a senior academic who lectures at universities all over Europe, and another who's a senior IT bod who's presently working for a government dept, and has worked for quite a few as a consultant, and inevitably we ended up discussing brexit
We concluded that its probably now reached the point where British Business's and Banks etc - who lest we forget are the ones who fund the Tory party - are going to say to May "ok... you've had your fun, indulged your nutters and backward-gazing racists, will of the people and all that shit - but enough is enough! So stop *ing about, bollocks to your ridiculous red lines, and get a deal sorted that remains as close to what we've already got! Or else you and your party are *ing finished for the forceable future! Because you see that beardy marxist over there? Well right now he's looking like a safer bet than you shower! Get it sorted! NOW!"
Then this just popped up in my news feed
https://news.sky.com/story/strike-brexit-transition-deal-urgently-bosses-to-tell-davis-11282054
Thread still going around in circles I see.
So stop *ing about, bollocks to your ridiculous red lines, and get a deal sorted that remains as close to what we’ve already got! Or else you and your party are *ing finished for the forceable future!
The problem with this assumption is there are those in the Tory party and beyond who wouldn't be bothered about the end of it as long as their own long term aims have been met.
Brexit is simply disaster capitalism in action, destroy something to rebuild it in your image with no regard of its consequences to others.
Might I suggest that those here who are still angry at brexit move on to the next phase. When we take it back from these people.
How?
Worst case scenario, in my opinion, is that we leave the Conservative party in power long enough to do the "destroy something" part, beyond even what most Brexit campaigners envisioned … and then elect a Labour Party that restrains the "rebuild it" part.
The Conservative party, under the influence of disaster capitalists, digs a great big hole for the UK to fall into… followed by the Labour Party, under the influence of capitalism deniers, preventing the ladders being built to try and get back out of it. No real support for any of this across the UK… but with plenty of people repeatedly having little to no option but to vote "against" what they see as the worst of two damaging agendas, it seems pretty likely.
Sadly the Indy appears to be the only paper running that Tusk story. To good to be true I suppose
i see the UK will ask US for exemption on the steel tariffs. Has certainly put the EU’s nose out of joint saying that would threaten the integrety of the EU. Welcome to the real world eh ?
Sadly thr Indy appears to be the only paper running that Tusk story. To good to be true I suppose
Nonsense. I knew about it from multiple other news sources… and have only just now read the Indy link to see what you were on about. It's not even an opinion piece… just the actual words straight from Tusk's mouth.
jambalaya
Sadly the Indy appears to be the only paper running that Tusk story. To good to be true I suppose
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43333274
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-comes-first-in-brexit-talks-tusk-1.3419979
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/08/donald-tusk-warns-ireland-must-come-first-brexit-talks/
https://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/tusk-threat-to-freeze-brexit-talks-until-irish-get-deal-1-4702854
You are great comedy value 😉 Have this one to mull over r UK / US trade and the toryboy view of the future
"May has strongly signalled a desire to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement with the US after Brexit, but critics said Trump’s “America first” rhetoric underlined the potential danger of being too reliant on a transatlantic relationship.
Senior government figures told the Guardian that plans to keep Britain closely tied to European standards after Brexit, which were outlined by the prime minister on Friday, had also cut the chances of a major trade deal with the US.
One cabinet minister said sticking to EU regulations in a number of areas, particularly around industrial goods, would constrain the breadth of any future UK-US trade links"
Sadly thr Indy appears to be the only paper running that Tusk story. To good to be true I suppose
The express ran the story too, THE EXPRESS! Lol!
Although they added thier trademark puerile spin to it.
"Donald Tusk issues veiled THREAT to Britain as he cosies up to Ireland for Brexit leverage"
Yeah but apart from the indy, no-one else is running that Tusk story apart from the BBC, Irish Times, Telegraph and Scotsman.
Apart from the Express.
Anyway, it's not on Brexit Central.
Except actually it is.
Anyone follow Corbyn's speech today in Scotland? He is so much more behind Brexit than the PM… she feels she has to do it… he genuinely sees benefits (even though they are based on misunderstandings over how the EU works, and what trade deals we will require to replace it will entail, in my opinion).
Are you a Corbyn fan now ?
I'd vote for Farage if he promised to keep us in.
I am a fan of anything that stops or slows down the madness.... go JC!
I guess the choice will be Leaving or Leaving and giving the tories a kicking .
I ****ing hate tories.
Corbyn wanted to Trigger article 50 the morning after the referendum. He’s spent his entire career railing against the EU as a capitalist conspiracy, despite all evidence to the contrary. He still thinks it stands in the way of the establishment of his socialist utopia.
As usual he’s out of step with his own MP’s, most of the labour membership, the majority of labour voters and even most of his disciples in Momentum
To the Brexiteers he’s just a useful idiot ensuring the Labour Party will not act as an opposition to this lunacy
Apart from Yvette Cooper who is pretty much the only labour MP prepared to constantly challenge this madness
I think the A50 thing was probably Corbyn playing politics and bouncing the Tories into the catastrophe now unfolding rather than that he actually felt a compulsion to leave asap. I could be wrong of course.
I suspect you are.
JC will not stop Brexit. He doesn't understand it, but he does support it. Don't believe the "all things to all voters" spin.
Yeh JC's position is very ambiguous, we know he's anti Europe, so for him to be apparently offering a much softer brexit than the nasty party can only be for one reason, to get into power.
Another party before people agenda, just like the tories but for different philosophical reasons.
Maybe we can hope for a lib lab coalition next GE.
so for him to be apparently offering a much softer brexit than the nasty party can only be for one reason, to get into power.
No, it's cos of the above mentioned clash between him own views and the party membership.
weird isnt it May is delivering something she opposed and Corbyn is pretending to oppose something he supports
Democracy is such a wonderful thing.
Binners anti corbyn post was actually spot on for once.
Nothing weird about it at all as they are elected to carry out the parties wishes, not their own.
But Corbyn isn’t doing this, is he? That’s the whole point. All but a handful of his MP’s were/are pro-remain. Party members and voters are pro-remain by a huge majority. Even his own lemming-like Momentum followers are overwhelmingly remainers
But Corbyn is doing what he’s always done..... ignoring all of them and just representing his own personal anti-EU opinion
Brexit supporters - stil definitely not racist.
https://news.sky.com/video/student-films-racist-abuse-at-uni-11280917
Nothing weird about it at all
Please feel free to list the times this happens and give other examples - it will help if it such a major issue. There must be loads seeing as this is not weird and I guess it happens all the time.
they are elected to carry out the parties wishes, not their own.
I think the PM is elected to carry out the people wishes so she at least has a get out but I still dont recall a leader doing something this large they opposed
Binners [ back to usual I note] notes Corbyn is not representing his party he is pretending to.
My understanding is that MPs, including the PM, are supposed to do the best thing for the country, or thier constituents, that doesn't nessesarily align completely with the will of the people, but of course popular opinion should be carefully considered.
Take a different subject, I'm sure the will of the people would be to bring in a 4 day working week and lower retirement age to 40, but it would destroy the economy.
It's an MPs job to know what's best and balance the will of the people against the practicalities.
Unfortunately most MPs don't think that way, they have thier own agendas.