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That doesn’t seem to add up…
should write that on a bus
The whole Irish border issue is an attempt by the EU to restrkct the UK’s ability to do global free trade deals as every single one will mean less business for the EU
Aye they are shitting it at the thought of those lining up to do a deal with the wee island [ could you provide a list btw] that will threaten the very fabric of the EU. I know you think everything post leave will be awesome but at some point you need to ground your views in reality rather than meaningless aspiration.
this is worse though
A proper free trade agreement solves the Irish border issue for the EU. One doesn’t exist for us as we will never out up border posts but the Irish may be forced to by the EU
Free trade is not an option as we cannot cherry pick - though of course the eu allowing us free access without payment or adherence is a solution it also is totally unrealistic. However it is good to know that post leaving the EU we have no intention of monitoring our borders - Boris is more grounded in reality than you,
could be a role model for the whole of the EU
Yes, a role model for operating external borders better than currently occurs. That is still a long way away from the current internal borders between Ireland, NI & rUK. So, a useful look at opening up the EUs external borders to some degree (something many Brexitiers are dead against) but not a good replacement for the very open internal border that being in the EU (or strongly linked to its CU&SM) allows between the UK and its neighbours.
perditus
And if you really want to understand the Irish Border issue in the context of the GF Agreement you can listen to the Blair interview on the R4 Today program this morning. Little to do with trade and more to do with respecting nationalist aspirations in NI.
Well you say respecting nationalist aspirations, I think a more accurate way to say it would be respecting the quality of life for border communities and the rights of everyone on the Ireland to move freely as per the GFA, and avoid a return to serious paramilitary violence. The communities on both sides of the border are overwhelmingly Nationalist and are used to freedom of movement since the ceasefire.
People making comparisons with Canada and the U.S or Norway and Sweden are completely missing the point - the Canadians don't view U.S border officials as an occupying foreign force. If you put up barriers where there have been none for 20 years you stir up a hornets nest, doubly so if those barriers are manned by representatives of an unwelcome state. If you apply the "technological solution" Boris alluded to people will come in the night and smash your technology and if you appoint people to guard your technology those people will ultimately get shot.
@Jambalaya , C est dans l'air worth watching if you are in france , channel 5 ; i think it is on repeat tonight .
About effects of brexit on paris . Been very good so far , 4000 jobs confirmed so far and expecting double that .
School for english people in Paris are seeing record numbers of applicants . not only from individuals but also lots of companies , mainly in Finance .
And even better for Franckfurt .
@ jimjam. the point I was trying to make, badly, was that the GFA wasn't a trade agreement and the brexiteers seem to wilfully miss that point: that the loss of freedom of movement within the island of Ireland will be the betrayal of the nationalist in NI.
as I said we already wash pre-prepared salad that way
Once again showing that you haven't understood the point.
[i]jambalaya wrote:[/i]
First smart border US/Canada and another between Sweden and orway (whuch is why I imagine the EU asked head of Sweden’s customs service to wrote it)
Interesting case study. It works for a border between an EU country and Norway? So all we have to do to make it work is be like Norway - that is what your'e suggesting isn't it? 😆 😆 😆
@ jimjam. the point I was trying to make, badly, was that the GFA wasn’t a trade agreement and the brexiteers seem to wilfully miss that point: that the loss of freedom of movement within the island of Ireland will be the betrayal of the nationalist in NI.
Yeah fair enough, I don't disagree with that. I assumed by "aspirations" you meant plans for a united Ireland.
from the comments below
In honour of John Major's historic dead-sheep attack on Theresa May, here are the...
Top Ten Things the Brexiteers Say vs. What They Really Think
10. There will be much more money going into the NHS after Brexit.
Obviously, healthcare is going to get A LOT more expensive after we sell the NHS to Trump. But anyone with any sense has already loaded up on US private healthcare stocks, so no problem. You can’t afford that? Look, Brexit is all about standing on your own two feet. That’s what the People voted for.
9. The Irish border is an imaginary problem.
Bit like Ireland itself, really. U2, Riverdance, James Joyce. All a bit of a jolly fiction. They’re not called the British Isles for nothing, you see. That chap with the funny name – calls himself the Tea Shack, or something – he’ll see sense eventually. If not, we’ll just have to send in the… Well, you know what I’m saying. We’ve had enough of interfering foreigners.
8. We must not become a vassal state.
Well, not of the EU, ha-ha! But China, Russia, the US… Well, let’s be realistic, for once. They’re a lot more powerful than us. But if we’re nice to them, they’ll probably let us keep the Royal Family and the Cayman Islands. And that’s what Brexit is all about.
7. Being in the EU is like being shackled to a corpse.
It’s like one of those awful Nordic Noir shows on BBC4. All free childcare, refugees and workers’ rights! Well, we don’t want any of that here. We’re going to stick to Midsomer Murders, where the toffs worry about inheriting the big house and the plebs know their place. That’s the British Dream, and it’s what the People voted for.
6. We need to take back control of our laws, our borders and our money.
Exactly. But did you see what we did there? Who’s we? People didn’t vote to take back control just to hand it over to all those whinging Remainers in Parliament. Or to those so-called experts at the Treasury and the CBI. Or the citizens of nowhere in the big cities. Or the snowflake millennials. Who's left? Jacob, Nigel and the patriotic press, basically. Look, we had a referendum. That’s democracy.
5. We need the freedom to strike our own deals and be competitive.
Why should we have to play by the same rules as Germany, eh? It’s not fair. Who won the bloody war? Look, if they want to work hard, train and pay their workers properly, and flood the world with their cars, software and high-tech engineering, that’s their look-out. All we need to do is deregulate the City, dump all those cushy so-called workers’ rights, scrap all the job-killing environmental red tape – and Britain will boom. We’ll be the Singapore of Europe. Or possibly the Mexico. One of those. The People voted, you know.
4. Staying in a customs union would be a betrayal of voters.
All right, technically, if you insist on being really anal about it, it’s true that, during the referendum campaign, we didn’t mention customs unions, or single markets, or the Irish border, or financial passporting, or VAT collection, or air traffic rules, or pharmaceutical approvals, or… Look, shut up! The People have spoken! They know they’re being betrayed! Because we just told them so!
3. Brexit isn’t going to be some Mad Max dystopian future.
Look, for a start, this global warming thing is grossly exaggerated. And Australia is crying out for a trade deal with us. There must be lots things they can’t get from their neighbours in Asia that they can buy from us. Anyway, the whole point of Brexit is not to crash forward into the future, but to make Britain great again by recovering our glorious past. If we but reach out to the peoples of the Empire, we may rest assured that they will respond accordingly. That’s the promise of Brexit.
2. We will continue to go on cheapo flights to stag parties in ancient cities.
They probably won’t let us in, though, the bastards – but that’s just typical of the petty, spiteful EU that’s always trying to do Britain down. Just tell them to stuff their cuisine and culture, and jet off to Florida instead. I hear that Mar-a-Lago is lovely at any time of year.
1. Brexit means Brexit.
Yes, It’s a golden oldie, I know. And it’s all a bit metaphysical. But when I see a copy of the Daily Mail lying in a gutter, I want to tenderly pick it up and brush it down. When I hear some kids yelling at a Polish builder, it brings a glow to my heart. When Nigel Farage pops up on Question Time yet again, I know that something’s right with the world. When I visit London and it doesn’t feel foreign like it used to, I walk with a spring in my step. And when Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg says that there’s nothing to worry about and that we can look forward to living in the best and most British of all possible worlds, I feel as if transported into an antique world of wonder.
That’s the magic of Brexit. And it’s what the People voted for.
Major was kicked out as PM by his own party over Europe and the electorate then gave the Tories 10 years in opposition.
Couple of points: 1) he was kicked out by the electorate, not his party. 2) as you brexiteers are obsessed with saying, it was for many other reasons and not Europe, only this time it really wasn’t. The Tories had been in power so long they were going to go sooner or later, and let’s face it, he’d made a complete hash of things at home. 3) The succession of useful leaders the Tories installed after the loss was what kept the Tories out of power. Oddly nobody fancy neither Ian nor Duncan Smith for starters...
I've seen a lot of comedy stuff about Brexit and brexiters etc... but none about remaining? You know how you know Brexiters are wrong? They don't have memes
I'm not sure if memes or their abscence really qualify as evidence of anything other than the fact that you are in an echo chamber but if you google "brexit remain meme" you will see that they do in fact, have memes.
I suppose that we can’t trust the political opinions of the men who brought us Black Wednesday and the Iraq invasion, then who can we trust?
Compared to Mogg, yeah they're alright !
Back on the border thing
The technology could work the EU is quite detailed in it's suggestions (it's taken 10+ years for Canada/USA & Norway/eu & cost millions, Boris Johnson mentioned c-charge, thats £80m a year)
They all violate May's pledge to have no infrastructure at the border & will questionably upset GFA too
But it needs the regulatory agreements in place, as well as the technology, May's redlines preclude the former & after 20 months the government have produced no detail on the latter (the gov white paper does repeat the word seamless a lot tho)
its certainly not the opinion of the person who defended him on both counts..obvious is obvious and so so shit these days.
[i]ninfan wrote:[/i]
I suppose that we can’t trust the political opinions of the men who brought us Black Wednesday and the Iraq invasion, then who can we trust?
The Economists for Free Trade adviser who tweeted that Sun article maybe? I mean clearly an adviser to a group of economists is the sort of man you can trust - especially one who knows that we pay import duty on the retail price of things and that a £2 pack of butter would only cost £1 if you removed the 50% import duty.
You seem to have forgotten to comment on my earlier question about that...
The technology could work
Perhaps. But even if it’s technically feasible, how the remnants of the IRA react to it is anyone’s guess
Actually, whilst on the subject of the adviser to the Economists for Free Trade:
[i]kimbers wrote:[/i]
So Mogg tweeted an apology for lying about Corbs on C4 news
I'm sure ninfan would agree with me that we should be precise about these things. If you read the wording of his tweet carefully you'll note the way he makes use of the word "sorry". Jacob being a man who is very careful with his wording, I also note that to lie requires you to know that what you are saying is incorrect - as always seems to be the case, poor Jacob was simply ill informed about things that somebody in his position couldn't possibly be expected to know the facts about.
So I'm afraid you're completely wrong there.
Indeed - it was the Anglo-Irish agreement that Jezza voted against, not the GFA
actually, this raises an excellent idea - how about we send Jeremy over to calm the waters regards the NI border? I mean, he successfully brought both sides to the table and negotiated a peace treaty once, maybe he’s the ideal person to do it again?
for those of us who dont do twitter [ or me anyway] can you post the tweet you are all commenting on
Moggy's?
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/968534387057942529
(you don't have to "do" twitter to find that - it's all public)
Amazingly this "news" passed my by despite it being "public"
No the "apology" to which you were referring
It was after Mogg was interviewed on C4 news
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/969142151815880704?s=19
Looks like that Ben Bradley Muppet getting threatening legal warnings has put the willies up the Tories & their Corbyn lies
Mogg is a regular bullshitter tho, he relies on his superior social standing to ensure his acolytes don't fact check him.
Black Wednesday, eh?
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Wheeled out every so often to give you headbangers something to fap about while you escape reality for a while.
Kenneth Clarke and Farage both on QT tonight. Should be interesting. Brexit perfectly illustrated
ah right so not even an apology just an admission he was wrong.
A bit like boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, using his ignorance over the Irish issues in defence of his flippant comments.. it's your job to know these things 'mate'.
Apparently if you're an ignoramus, you don't have to apologise.
Ninfan said
Wobble wobble wobble
These Tories are getting worried....
I watch this "discussion" ebb and flow around remain and Brexit however what remains for me (and I think many others) is the absolute distrust of the right wing of the Tory Party.
I an 55 years old, I have witnessed and suffered the worst excesses of Thatcher, I have lived in the North East of England during the miners strike whilst a police state functioned (I have also had the piss taken on here about being hit too many times on the head whilst on a picket line)
The Rees Mogg, Boris, Fox ****wits want to use the working poor of this country as raw material (at best)
Poor people these ****ers despise you, they care more for their dogs.
Brexit is a tool to subjugate the UK masses, to box them into a corner in which they will submit.
There is no amount of fiscal "bollocks" peddled by these people that has any substance for the working poor.
As I have said before this is the greatest "long con" of all time. It's disgusting to watch.
Amazingly this “news” passed my by despite it being “public”
Well, I posted it up about two days ago on this thread 😉
I think I’d find Brexit more palatable if those promoting it didn’t seem so uniformly incompetent at doing anything constructive.
I mean great at telling us what’s wrong with things, great on pomp and ceremony and nationalist dreams - but on clearly thought out constructive ideas. Nope. Not so good.
That includes both their “leaders” and the Brexies on here sadly.
Got to agree with oldmanmtb wholeheartedly.
just look at the people who are fanatical brexiteers - Rees Mogg? Ian Duncan Smith? John Redwood? Bill Cash? Boris Johnson? Nigel Farage?
FFS! The very idea that these people want anything other than a deregulated, tax haven race to the bottom, to line their own pockets and totally * over the working classes is utterly ridiculous.
Just do the most basic research. This is what these people are all about. They’ve spent their entire careers championing the torching of anything that stands in the way of letting unfettered unregulated corporate capitalism rip, and * the consequences to those who end up as’collateral damage’ to their ‘project’
Got it in one, binners
The European parliament has issued an embarrassing snub to Theresa May’s concessions over EU migrants, rejecting the UK’s offer in a move that casts fresh doubt on the prospect of reaching an agreement on the transition period by March...........................Verhofstadt said in a statement that the UK’s position was unacceptable to the parliament, which will have a right to veto any withdrawal agreement.
Todays Grauniad
as well as a story on May trying to unite us all behind her yet to be revealed brexit strategy - My guess she abours on for a few weeks about divergence* whilst the EU says no and then they [ RW foreign owned vested interested aka as the free press] blame the EU. She cannot even unite a cabinet never mind the nation - to be fair no leader could at the minute.
* Like leaving the gym then trying to negotiate what equipment you can still use, for free, as a non member as its in both your interests and then blaming them for you not getting this.
Well, I posted it up about two days ago on this thread
I paid it as much attention as you do your e-mails - smiley goes here
Actually I just missed it
Oh well let's make the most of the last day of this thread . As apparently the ZombieMaygot's speech today will unite the nation and put all our fears to rest.
Tj and THM will be filmed dancing together in Trafalgar Square draped in a big Union Jack.
Tomorrow we will all be back to arguing over handlebar widths.
That's one possibility. Another is that she makes some non-commital noises about red, white and blue Brexit and caring conservatism and we carry on as before. What do you reckon are the odds?
Its going to be interesting as the leaks are all of things that have been rules out by the EU and the EU parliament has ruled out her plan for EU nationals.
I suspect a load of waffle plus a statement of what "we" want which is a position that is unacceptable to the EU.
I think the prime minister will recognise in the speech today that it is not about cherry picking, that we can’t have everything that we might like to have because we are leaving.
What happens if her five tests fail ?
Brexit is cancelled ?
cchris - it would then be time for plan B
They dont even have a plan A never mind a Plan B
It does seem she is going to do a long speech for things she has been told we cannot have.
Thats the flaw Junkyard. Plan A fails you need plan B - or plan nine from outer space
I mean great at telling us what’s wrong with things
Must've missed that. For the most part they misled, distorted and lied. Unless that counts as 'great'. Like winning the TDF by sabotaging other riders' bikes, crossing the line doped, getting caught, and then blaming the TDF for being 'shit'
'Taking The 'Great' Out of Great Britain'
As per binners and oldmanmtb , I see this all around me. Old mining town , nothing to gain from Tories or Brexit but yet people are voting against the working class grain.
It's the most screwed political situation I've seen around here.
Worksop/John Mann who is a brexitter didn't help.
So the Maybot's speech has been trailed as being heavy on detail, so the one thing thats totally certain is that there will be absolutely no detail whatsoever.
I expect we'll just have yet more of vague generalities and her making the right noises to stop Rees Mogg and his band of wreckers going ballistic.
So... blah blah blah.... we are leaving the single market.....blah blah blah.... we are leaving the customs union..... blah blah blah.... we will seek a bespoke trading arrangement .... blah blah blah.... there will be no hard border in northern island.....blah blah blah.... magic unicorns.....
Have I missed anything?
I paid it as much attention as you do your e-mails
Touché 😂
If you want to see where this is headed: the use of phrases such as 'techno-libertarian' and 'post-democratic future'. Bleak stuff. The 'Sovereign Individual' co-penned by Jacob's dad.
Point raised by rone about the working class voting against the grain is only really true about Brexit, a lot of the blame for Brexit (well at least the vote) sits with Blair's time in office, his govt did nothing to fix the structural/industrial wasteland left by Thatchers govt. PFI hospitals and minimum wage really did not address our core industrial vacuum.
Add in free movement, zero hours etc and people are not happy. I believe very few working class people had a view on the possible consequences of Brexit which interestingly are likley to make their world worse regardless of what type of Brexit.
oldmanmtb
Point raised by rone about the working class voting against the grain is only really true about Brexit, a lot of the blame for Brexit (well at least the vote) sits with Blair’s time in office, his govt did nothing to fix the structural/industrial wasteland left by Thatchers govt.
No I think you'll find they are all stupid racists. Or xenophobes, which is a synonym for racist, in other words a nazi. Basically everyone who voted leave was a Nazi. Ignorant, inbred, council estate dole scum leavetards. Shocking amount Nazis in Britain these days. Do you even STW? Are you new here? Anyway you're welcome. I voted remain btw but then I left the UK on account of all the Nazis.
where did you go jimjam?
Oldmanmtb - bang on again. The working classes felt (rightly) that they have being treated with utter contempt by a political Westminster elite that couldn't care less about them, and abandoned them to their fate in a globalised world. Labour put a sticking plaster over the scorched earth policies of Thatcher but did absolutely nothing to rebalance the economy, so the inequality just continued to grow
Throw into the mix the right-wing press, and UKIP with their offer of easy scapegoats (The EU, scroungers and immigrants) to blame, and a Tory party happy to go along with that to detract from who's fault it really is (theirs) and you've got the perfect storm.
The thing is what happens when theres no scapegoats left to blame, and people see who's fault it really is? Add in the true sense of betrayal that will be felt by the working classes who voted for Brexit when they realise the true extent to which they were lied to and conned? That Brexit will be used as a cover to remove what few rights they have, dismantle what remains of the welfare state, privatise the NHS and unleash what will essentially be a low tax corporate playground and a neoliberal fantasy island? What happens then?
Ironically it is the less rabid members of the Tory party who suspect they know exactly whats coming when all this comes home to roost. Once the working class realise they've been played for fools by the same people who delivered the decimation of deindustrialisation in the first place. John Major hinted at it in his speech, and Anna Sourby and Nikki Morgan have repeatedly vocalised it (with little press coverage)
The arrogance of the Brexiteers, dizzy on their 'victory' makes them believe they have a mandate to what the hell they like! To re-make Britain in their own toxic zero-sum image. The saner voices in the party know full well what they're planning, and their dream destination, and know they're playing with fire and we could be on our way back to the civil unrest of the 80's.
Something to look forward to eh?
What will be interesting is to see how different things will be this time around now the Tories no longer have a police force on-side. The Police have now been treated with the same contempt that all other civil servants have always endured under the Tories. So the private militia that Thatcher had at her disposal is long gone.
where did you go jimjam?
I went to the EU. You should smell the air here, it smells like.......freedom.
Actually it smells a bit like slurry as I moved from NI to ROI but there are absolutely no Nazis here, not like over there. In all seriousness though, we had contemplated the move before Brexit but the referendum results just encouraged us to get a move on before house prices might have tanked (we were in a position to make a little money from our house sale, waiting may have negated that). If there's going to be any kind of hard border or increased separation between NI and ROI I'd much rather be in the Republic (despite all the problems) than the North for a number of different reasons.
the working class were hoodwinked into blaming immigrants and the Eu for the policies of the tories they just gave the power to as we exit the EU.
the state of the poor in this country is due to the policies we pursue and zero hours contracts are to do with us having limited employment law not the EU. Anyone working class who thinks things just got better for them are about to be hit in the face by reality and hit pretty damn hard.
Its quite ironic that key leaver areas are the ones hardest hit by leaving and the poor and its much harder for them to weather any financial storm than Boris or Mogg. Nothing got better for them.
reports jimjam for being a traitor - would have done the same were it an option open to me.
I've just had my ex-wife on the phone. She's just been made redundant. The company she works for are shifting all their production to Eastern Europe
I'm sure its nothing at all to do with Brexit
I'd be gone in a shot if I had somewhere to go. ROI would be high on the list.
Is a 'wifr' some sort of northern gimp binners.
I’ve just had my ex-wifr on the phone. She’s just been made redundant. The company she works for are shifting all their production to Eastern Europe
So if we don't let the Eastern Europeans come in and take all our jobs here, they'll just move the jobs to Krakow?
#TakingBackControl
Chris yes here in France ahead of skiing trip. Will look for the programme thanks, should be on catch up I hope. Ash/Ride Sospel published their routes and we are looking at a trip to Nice & Sospel in June.
If the five tests aren’t met by any deal then we go WTO and add things like airtravel seperately, as Merkel said in Munich we need to work on that contingency together.
TJ its funny how with Brexit you see only problems yet with an independent Scotland it was only opportunities (never mind your massive budget deficit) and of course no bother at all re negotiations with the UK.
The Irish border is being used as a political football by the EU just like they did with citizens rights (we wanted to sort that immediately after the referendum and they refused). The EU must surely realise they F’d up when the pro-EU groups in UK critised their text. The (drunk at 1am?) Tweet from Barniers advisor criticising pro-EU groups shows how they’be misjudged it badly.
Just because we have no formal border with Republic of Ireland doesn’t mean we don’t collect any tariffs. All done electronically in advance with spot checks etc. Ditto people, no border required. Police / immigation / trading officials can check people’s details anywhere for things like employment and visa status. Ireland is outside Schengen and any “flood” of asylum seekrs can be dealt with easily via Geneva Convention if they pass through the Republic as that’s a safe country and they should claim there. We can (and will) deport them back there.
kimbers the cost of border tech is small in comparison to the advatanges of divergent regulation and global free trade deals. As oer the paper the author thinks it should be rolled out to all of the EU’s external borders.
The EU is a very bad postion, losing its second largest contributor who will sign new deals leading to further falls in trade with us. We will be buying things cheaper elsewhere. Our exports to EU have fallen from 55 to 45% these past 10 years, strip out the Rotterdamn effect and the real figure is more like 35-40%. A UK outside the EU will have the flexibility and fleet footedness to react and adapt. The EU is a centralised behemoth which is slow, inefficient and self centered. The EU is well aware we will prosper, its desperate to try and tie us in. We will succeed handsomely as an independent nation and they know it and they know others in the EU27 will see it.
reports jimjam for being a traitor – would have done the same were it an option open to me.
I’d be gone in a shot if I had somewhere to go. ROI would be high on the list.
The state machinery of Ireland, especially in a remote rural area, feels like an old car who's engine has developed a serious knock. You know it's going to have a catastrophic terminal failure at some point in the near future, you're just not sure when. Saying that, it's hard not to admire it's resilience as it just keeps on trucking. I now live so close to the border I can see it, and both my wife and I are cross border workers. If Brexit results in any kind of border it'll create a shit storm here.
Mixed emotions.
@perditus up to you of course but remember France, Germany, Holland and Italy have larger portions of their populations voting for FN, AfD , Freedom Party or 5-star than the UK ever had for UKIP. Much higher, more like double. That’s before we talk about Austria and Hungary. You could of course go to Oz like @mikesmith, a country with a very highly controlled immigation system and one which even with a points based visa doesn’t allow you to work wherever you want in the country (for first5? years anyway)
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country. Since 2008 they have had a lot of emigration as people look for better (any) work opportunities. A positive Brexit will be good for them (less damaging, I can only see beef and dairy exports to UK falling under all scenarios)
The state machinery of Ireland, especially in a remote rural area, feels like an old car who’s engine has developed a serious knock.
Spent any time in the Welsh valleys?
Jamba who is the "we" in we go WTO does that include my mate Bob from Hartlepool? He drives a fork lift and doesn't like foreigners, but likes being unemployed less...
Practicalities Jamba that's the key to ecomomic success not platitudes.
Rafael Behr sums up the reality of Mays position in todays Guardian. They know that she can says what she likes today. She's not the one calling the shots. The headbangers are. I've bolded up the most important bit. The bit that all these lunatics lust after, and fully intend to implement at all costs. The working class is about to be bent over, and this lot are going in dry
The patterns of recent Tory history are familiar to May’s counterparts in the Brexit talks. They probably have a clearer-sighted understanding of them than she does. This matters because May’s pitch to the EU is that she can be trusted to uphold the values of the European project even while quitting its institutions. She offers “deep and special partnership” on matters of security and economic cooperation. She rejects the suggestion that Britain seeks to undercut its continental neighbours by dropping labour standards and environmental protections. She promises a post-Brexit partnership “based on high standards”. So May invites her EU counterparts to be generous and cooperative on the basis that she is an ally – aligned and equivalent in values if not exactly identical in regulations.
But even if the rest of the EU accept that May is sincere, they know she is weak. They know there is a section of the Tory party that is implacably hostile to the European project. That faction saw a regulatory bonfire as Brexit’s primary purpose. Some fantasised about a great unravelling of the union as a happy side-effect. That hostility is not a secret and the EU cannot ignore it. They have followed British history enough to know which side tends to win tugs of war between Tory leaders and Eurosceptic backbenchers. They knew where power lies in that party.
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country.
Yes, "we" are utterly shafting them, and than acting surprised that they aren't impressed with our behaviour.
The thing is what happens when theres no scapegoats left to blame, and people see who’s fault it really is?
There is always some scapegoats to blame. Hence why the rabid right have been warming up on the whole enemy of the people, betrayers etc to get ready for the stab in the back myth.
Plus of course the elites will skip to another country and leave the destruction behind after making some cash out of it and, after all, there will still be plenty of cash to be made from the mess.
The EU is a very bad postion, losing its second largest contributor who will sign new deals leading to further falls in trade with us.
How many countries do we currently have trade agreements with, as members of the EU? Now… pick any country outside the EU, any one, you pick, pick a nice big strong one… now, how many countries does that country have trade agreements with?
Now, have a long think about that.
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country
its definitely us with the highest exposure risk if there is massive what is ours supermegamassive? Nope its a brigth and wonderful future isnt it rolly eyes*
Again your ability to see others problems, who are smaller than ours, whilst seeing ours as opportunities is a joy to watch. If we could bottle Brexit optimism for sale then we surely would thrive post Brexit.
* anyone know how to insert them easily?
Jamba
Bag o crisps Brexit innit<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> </span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">DEXEUs own calculations reckon all of Fox's trade deals added together amount to less than 1% GDP over 10 years (easily swamped by 5-8% loss thanks to May's hard-wto Brexit)</span>
So no, there will be no extra cash for border tech, when it's in place in 5-10 years time, being optimistic.
And every example linked to so far requires significant infrastructure at border
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> + no</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> border in NI under WTO rules would mean no border anywhere under favoured nation rules?</span>
May's 5 tests are laughable.
It's been 20 months, UK have been on back foot from day 1
And we still have no plan, Brexiters have produced no detail, just internal squabling, cabinet, Tory party, government & country still completely divided over Brexshit
If that's an example of UKs fleetfootedness & flexibility then we are definitely doomed !
Chris English speaking schools will be a massive factor for people looking to move I have some friends if friends who started 2 here in Paris. It has been a long bureaucratic nightmare. My niece goes to one. French state resistive as it thinks they are for the privileged. They will have to do a 180 switch and oit state money into it. Unlikely me thinks. The exiting schools are already full with waiting lists. People won’t come unless they can get school places. Even longer waiting lists is not a draw.
Jamba I have no doubt you are well educated and probably worked very hard to get where you are but you are looking at this from completely the wrong end, you do not solve the problem of a starving (metaphorical) nation by giving the well fed more food to stick in the larder.
The working poor have voted "jam for the rich" and one day as pointed out by Binners and others it will dawn on them.
border in NI under WTO rules would mean no border anywhere under favoured nation rules[FNR]?
who wrote that ? FNR means whatever tarrif you charge to this nation you need to charge to all, Its says nothing at all about borders.
A WTO based EU/UK relationship would result in the UK leaving the customs union. Firms trading with the EU from outside of the customs union are subject to customs checks. This could be particularly problematic for Northern Ireland, as the region shares a land border with the EU and around 37% of our exports cross that border to enter the RoI. Although the UK Government has stated that it wishes to ‘retain free and frictionless’ trade across the Irish land border and that it is seeking to develop a ‘mutually beneficial new customs agreement with the EU’, in the absence of an agreement between the UK and the EU it is unclear how realisable either of these outcomes would be
from NI assembly paper
WTO rules does not lead to the ending of borders or there being no tariffs at the border. Whist we could have free trade in if we chose we cannot have it out
More facts here
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country. Since 2008 they have had a lot of emigration as people look for better (any) work opportunities. A positive Brexit will be good for them (less damaging, I can only see beef and dairy exports to UK falling under all scenarios)
Emigration from Ireland has been a fact of life for generations so I don't see what brexit has to do with it- the young people I know went to Australia and Canada or is it post brexit our economy will be so screwed no one will come here? I've no idea about the beef and dairy trade I presume you haven't either on past record.
If the five tests aren’t met by any deal then we go WTO
Then what? You've still not answered repeated questions on which other countries trade solely on WTO terms with no FTAs in place
and add things like airtravel seperately
How long will that take? Where would arbitration fall for infractions? Who would regulate?
TJ its funny how with Brexit you see only problems yet with an independent Scotland it was only opportunities (never mind your massive budget deficit) and of course no bother at all re negotiations with the UK.
IIRC, Scotland wished to remain part of the EU, and as rUK was also in the EU at the time, trade with its two biggest export markets would have been unaffected. Not quite the same with Brexit, is it? And how's Westminster's deficit going?
The Irish border is being used as a political football by the EU
No, it's quite simple logic. GFA states there must be freedom of movement between ROI and NI. Brexit without customs agreements means that there can't be FOM across the border. It's blindingly simple.
Just because we have no formal border with Republic of Ireland doesn’t mean we don’t collect any tariffs. All done electronically in advance
Ah, unicorns again.
Police / immigation / trading officials can check people’s details anywhere
Sure. Remind me again why it is the RUC tended to drive around in armoured vehicles.
any “flood” of asylum seekrs can be dealt with easily.... ....We can (and will) deport them back there.
You and whose army?
the cost of border tech is small
Given such border tech doesn't yet exist, I doubt it. And given that it must consist of at least some hardware on the border, what happens when the PIRA decide to remove it at night time?
We will be buying things cheaper elsewhere
You say this. But what are we going to be buying cheaper elsewhere? Where are the trade deals that would make these things cheaper? We're playing with an open hand here - every country will know we want a deal at almost any cost. Not exactly a strong bargaining position.
Our exports to EU have fallen from 55 to 45% these past 10 years, strip out the Rotterdamn effect and the real figure is more like 35-40%
So best case scenario, we lose a third of our export market. What planet are you on to even think that might be OK? Have you seen what happens to exports when the pound rises a couple of cents?
A UK outside the EU will have the flexibility and fleet footedness to react and adapt.
Given leave didn't even have the ability to adapt to a win some had hoped for for nearly 40 years, forgive my scepticism. FFS Jamby, the UK can't even ****ing react to a bit of snow forecast over a week in advance.
The EU is well aware we will prosper, its desperate to try and tie us in. We will succeed handsomely as an independent nation and they know it and they know others in the EU27 will see it.
I have seen some ****ing delusional shit in my time, but that's really up there with the best. So your argument is basically boiling down to blind loyalty and faith in a country so crap you don't even choose to live in it yourself.
More pathetic twaddle from the Maybot. Can we have some details please? Well of course not, there aren't any.
"TJ its funny how with Brexit you see only problems yet with an independent Scotland it was only opportunities"
it's funny that you can't see how many parallels there are between the two situations.
On the plus side its not like anyone is declaring how easy trade wars are to win.
oh bugger.
. What planet are you
Planet optimism the place reality cannot reach*
* trading under WTO rules