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go on then THM - what are those stated goals? cos no one but you knows what they are - or are you going to spout meaningless phrases again or state something that is impossible / has been ruled out?
can you two not hurry up and properly throw your toys out of your respective prams?
the constant sniping at each other is beyond boring. 🙄
TJ is trying to nail jelly to a plate…
cos no one but you knows what they are – or are you going to spout meaningless phrases again or state something that is impossible / has been ruled out?
Can we just assume that he doesn't know, and move on?
Del / ransos- OK - I think I have made my point probably 20 times over. 😉
Kelving - thats easy compared to trying to get THM to answer a question or to explain his special knowledge that no one else has.
If you succeed, you can have a go at one of May's rare interviews… the best can't pin her down…
Can we just assume that he doesn’t know, and move on?
To be fair, I think pretty much everyone has accepted this.
I was going to say " empty vessels make the most noise" then in a moment of self realization I thought - "but I am probably the noisiest recently"
Blimey genuine “chapeau” there TJ
only having a giggle at the end of the day 😉
There is a difference in that TJ is admitting that he doesn't have a scooby what the govt position is. Which is hardly surprising as they haven't agreed it yet, beyond meaningless platitudes like
brexit means brexit
best possible brexit
red white and blue brexit
bespoke deal
and the rest of their childish drivel.
Here is the full regional breakdown of the economic impact assessments that MPs have now been able to see
[img] 
:large[/img]
SOURCE:
Traitor! You've shown our hand!
<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; color: #444444; font-size: 12px;">Davies keeps going on about some mythical Canada plus plus plus which includes finacial services which is impossible</span>
This isn't actually true...as Andrew Bailey (FCA) pointed out in his speech a couple of days ago...a chapter on financial services was included in EU TTIP negotiations
How's that going?
Quoting works well in Opera, I see
I find flat earthers’ arguments more convincing than THMs
Is thm building his own rocket?
It's a tough gig fighting the good fight for the poor and impoverished tories. I guess he is doing it for free hence the quality.
London - No Deal: +3.5%
suddenly it all makes sense!!
Bad luck bob
2dogs +1
the fragmentation of EU wholesale finance markets is the last thing the EU needs
Plus both sides are recognising the financial stability implications. Forget punting bitcoin, bet on a deal in financial services - sure fire winner
Forget punting bitcoin, bet on a deal in financial services – sure fire winner
How do you define a deal? Anything more than nothing counts?
In most sectors deals are most likely to be struck on the basis of (regulatory and other) equivalence
we get access, they avoid regulatory (and other) arbitrage. Win: win. Done.
ok as 2D will jump in, it’s a tad more complicated in fun services due to technicalities around different effects of activities covered by MiFid or CRD but thats not for a bike chat
Not as good as now but a mile away from the doomsday scenarios of the scaremongers
So you have no idea what any deal will look like other than it being between 2 wide points
are their "jokes" more convincing too bob?
No pretty clear thanks. And already prepped for the worst and hoping for the best. Last month has seen a swing in +direction
the more diverting noise Barnier makes the better. Very encouraged by his misleading comments in the past week - as amusing as a well crafted times crossword clue. 5 across (8 letters)
Try thinking about what this constant kicking the can down the road means for those outside FS.
No pretty clear thanks
Just cant articulate it then?
You have admitted its between best and worst its a wide gap not a position
An interesting legalchallenge going on in the Netherlands right now - a bunch of uk ex pats have won the right to make a case before the ECJ that they cannot lose rights they have now. If they win that then it also applies to UK citizens including ECJ jurisdiction in future.
Done kelvin. The parallels with EBA and EMA for examples are obvious, hence comment above
Mike you really think a bike forum is the place to go through the details of how passporting verses equivalence impacts different aspects of finance?? Sorry to disappoint my old fruit
plus it would stop the more amusing scare stories - much more fun
financial services. Passporting ruled out by May with her redlines - basically you cannot get passporting without obeying EU rules in their entirity. Equivalence means staying very close to EU rules - again ruled out even tho the solution offered for NI means no regulatory divergence
So a deal on financial services that would allow the city to carry on in a similar way to now is extremely unlikely as to get a deal means UK would have to follow EU rules very closely. Something that Johnson, Gove, Davis will not allow and categorically ruled out by May
So Free movement of capital cannot be divorced from the other 3 freedoms, May has ruled out allowing free movement of people and also ruled out regulatory convergance. so no deal on financial services.
remember there is zero incentive for the EU to compromise on this. No deal means all financial services that involve the EU move out of london and that is to the EUs advantage - and the scam to open shell companies / subsidiaries has also been categorically ruled out as computer systems, senior staff and processes all must come under EU law.
Oh - and having firmly established THM has no clue what he is talking about just bluster and snide the killfile is back on - so don't waster your electrons with more snide THM. I won't see it.
Snide - fake metals BTW - counterfeit coins are made of snide
Much as i hate to support THM, financial services is one area where the EU really do need us at least as much as we need them, and therefore, I believe compromise on that will be reached (and cos of my job I do have some knowledge)
As for the rest of the shitstorm....doesn't matter what we agree on financial services if the fundamentals aren't sorted
So amidst all that, did the flat earther provide us with a single shred of evidence that he knows anything about what deal will be reached?
no reason to doubt, no reason to believe.
Thread on Twitter, Nissan sunderland are paying off some managers on NDAs as they prepare for a plant closure in the not to distant future.
Ah thm andahisan fine look over there, all we ask is you link to what your on about that you tell us is obvious nothing more. You assure us a bespoke deal will be done of course it will, it's like sayisa Hugh heff would marry a young lass, inevitavle but not informative
Twodogs - problem is from what I see is that a deal on financial services means regulatory convergence at the very lest - ruled out by May this week but preferably membership of the single market - remember the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
Why would the companies ( as they are planning to do) not simply move their operations into the EU?
When I suggested a while ago we should tax bankers fairly I was told they would all move to frankfurt in that case. I really do not see why they won't to follow the business. Trading in eurobond etc ( correct terms??) needs to be under the supervision of the european central bank with senior roles, it systems etc all subject to EU law so the EU bods have stated and I cannot see them backing down on that
Only going on what I have read in the press but I can see no reason why the jobs won't move, advantages to the EU in doing so.
Can you explain why this is wrong? ( genuine query)
Yeah rumourmill on twitter saying nissan managers being offered early redundancy. Obvs could be #fakenews, but I imagine customs union govs stance got a lot of people worried
Might be a tense meeting with Nissan execs & May tomorrow morning.
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12px;"> I believe compromise on that will be reached</span>
Quite possibly. I dont think there is any question that the rabid right brexiteers will also happily sacrifice plenty to protect financial services since its in their own interests, either directly or their donors.
The problem is whatever ends up being sold up shit creek for it.
Simple answer TJ we operate under the same regulatory regime at the moment - except the Frenchies always try to avoid it (Basel 4)
But how will I cope without you providing the quotes to support my points
still will be a relief to avoid your attention as helpful as it’s been in past 36 hours. Forever remember you nailing Canada plus!
please can I quote the comment on May and regulatory convergence ?
Oh bore off you supercilious buffoon
I take it that post of THMs is not worth reading 🙂 say what you mean Zokes. don't pull your punches now
You are a charmer zokes!
sorry and the quote about no incentives
i have alteady linked to the Eu analysis that falsified that but hey since when did facts matter?
Twodogs - I would like to know why you think the jobs / companies won't move to the EU given that the conditions for passporting / equivalence seem unlikely to be met.
I promise to treat a serious answer seriously
Apparently (kussenberg fact) May is going to take the cabinet on a weekend retreat to figure out what kinda compromises we are willing to make....
It's only been 19 months and they still haven't figured it out yet 😂😂😂
Amusing to think that Rees-Mogg & the other swivel-eyes won't be invited, expect the frothing to be severely amplified !
Compromises - now we are getting somewhere
TJ - you could always google (your friend) Philip Lane the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and mamber of ECBs governing council - poss a future ECB big wig. You will see for his comments that the monochrome view of fin services is unhelpful and wide of the mark
any sensible Europe (outside the tax department) should be very scared of no deal in fin services
Compromises were not part of the brexit fable, as sold.
Can the ego's of the brexies bend enough to let May push any through?
You are a charmer zokes!
Problem is he is not wrong and he was no less charming than you and, mercifully, much, much briefer.
Is that a serious comment kimbers?
Negotiations and or divorces always invoke compromises.
It’s clear where compromises are required from our stated goals. All that’s unclear is where the lines will ultimately be drawn. We saw that in phase 1 and will see it again, these are never concluded in advance. That would be silly
of course, there is disagreement on both sides as to where those lines need to be drawn. That’s only natural. And in the end?
”A finger of fudge is just enough to ...”
only the monochrome gangs on either extremes don’t get this hence all their noise and frustration that the world moves on without them
Just as well I copy my forum posts before hitting the post button as the new super duper forum went tits up on my iPad when I attempted to post it, get it fixed for christ’s sake will you?, or give us the old forum back.
Nowt much else to add since I last posted back on page 1075 apart from a discussion I had earlier today regarding the future of the NHS, (a close mate is fading fast with very late stage cancer, secondary cancer spreading everywhere after esophageal cancer diagnoses and treatment back in late 2016 (previously posted about), as I said over the past couple o’ years I have come to know his brother who was very high up in the civil service for 20+ years and I could say what specific private sector he is now working in to back up my claims but that would oust him to anyone with a bit of knowledge), I prob shouldn’t be sharing this but **** it, earlier on this afternoon we were talking about what the effect the various Brexit solutions would have on the nhs regarding funding/procurement/research/access to treatment and continuing staffing concerns.
We will lose our highly valued critical medical research and facilities, we will lose access to the latest drugs/treatments (European Medicines Agency), we will see our nhs core functions being outsourced to private companies as the financial strain regarding funding for essential services will be too great a burden when placed against our reduced government spending so an already “pre-determined area of the NHS” will be outsourced to the private sector as there has (already) been extensive background talks with American (and other) health suppliers to move right in and take over essential care functions, we will struggle (fail actually) to sufficiently fill roles within the health service to enable a certain standard of care which will lead to ever increasing privatisation of roles.
We are ****ed if we continue on this ****ing idiotic road to Brexit, so what if 51.8% of the public voted to leave the EU?, in my opinion at least 30% of those dim witted ****s shouldn’t even be allowed to hold a sharp implement such as a voting pencil in their hand never mind have a vote on the most significant political and economic change to our country in over 40 years.
There is a certain cabel of “nutters” within the Conservative party that are pushing for this (Brexit) scenario for their own needs/financial gains and this situation is as much a wrestle for control of the Conservative party as it is for Brexit, it’s pretty obvious who they are so i consider it our duty to smack them in the face and tell them to “get the **** out of here”, If you happen to find a brexiter who is also adamant we should leave then they are fair game as well for a ****ing kicking as the Brexit result will affect all of us for the worse for a long time to come.
That’s me, got the rant out of my system so.......away to drink whisky and smoke NL #5 till I pass out in a puddle of my own piss, which given the fact I have no control over my bladder (spinal cord/ms issues) will be sooner rather than later..... hey.... we’ve got to laugh about something!
THM: stop trolling, and you might find that I, along with quite a few others stop thinking what I wrote.
Back up your “facts” with references, or describe them as the opinions they actually are and that too might lead to a more constructive form of debate.
Did we win yet?
Another benefit of Brexit will be getting free antibiotics along with our food 🙂
The transition period is to allow EU countries to smoothly transition jobs out of the UK.
Beware
Like BNP Paribas ?
>Nicky Morgan, the pro-European Conservative who chairs the committee ( treasury), is not impressed. In a statement issued in her capacity as committee chair she said:
The clock is ticking for the financial services industry. As the British Chambers of Commerce said yesterday, businesses need answers urgently on the government’s vision for Brexit so they can prepare for the future with confidence.
Many firms will begin to activate their Brexit contingency plans at the end of March, but they’re still none the wiser about the Government’s desired end-state for the sector.
By publishing a position paper on financial services, the government could articulate a clear sense of direction and provide some much-needed clarity. Yet, as the economic secretary confirms, the government is refusing to publish such a paper for fear of undermining the UK’s negotiating position.
Nothing undermines a negotiating position more than not having one.
Clarity has been provided for numerous other sectors, so the more than one million people employed in financial services will take no comfort in the government’s inaction.
Financial services firms will be seriously concerned at the chronic state of uncertainty. The government should publish its position paper on the future of financial services immediately.>
teamhurtmore
Like BNP Paribas ?
We shall see, but don’t limit your thinking to the money shufflers kid.
On that Nissan rumour, a lot of their management is Paris based so it doesn’t feel quite right. But it may be.
Well IGM, I/we can follow what one of France’s leading banks IS doing or follow the advice (sic) of people who regularly post inaccurate statements on MTB forums. Not a tough choice
John Ryan and the LSE (normally pro remain) wrote a good note in early January on why passporting is in the best interests of both parties (my conclusion too) and why the ultimate winner if the EU plays silly buggers will be
[NY]
blogs.lse
the HoL published a good note at end of Jan too
Along the lines of what Somafunk has stated, my 'worry' about brexit is that it will open the gates to the USA getting involved in our NHS and food supply which is quite a horrible thought and I can see being totally irreversible.
As everybody knows, the health industry is a fantastic way to make money and I am sure there are companies out there that will be climbing over each other to take one of the services away from NHS control - as we know from past scandals involving companies like G4s it wont benefit the end user either.
Same with food, I do not want any more food from the USA winding its way up here - things like synthetic growth hormone in meat, arsenic, bleached chicken and the much loved by the US high fructose corn syrup.
However much I would like to see brexit 'reversed' I understand it is more than likely going to take place, I just wish the govt (inc labour) had more direction and a better handle of the 'facts', I also wish that individuals such as Mogg and Gove were not involved, one is a snake, the other medieval.
Usual story though - the 'elites' (crap term I Know) dont use the NHS, dont buy the crap we eat, dont have the same relationship with money that we do so why do they care - With drastic change comes huge business opportunity.
May was asked about the NHS/USA situation in PMQs yesterday… you can guess the (non)answer.
May was asked about the NHS/USA situation in PMQs yesterday… you can guess the (non)answer.
It's quite staggering really that she, as someone whose daily survival depends on a constant supply of medication as she's a type 1 diabetic, would not be the absolute unequivocal champion of the NHS.
She's a vile human being
Bllx - the BoE just revises up GDP forecasts for next year to 1.8% and same for ‘19
Dont they understand the need to stick to the false narrative of doom?
1 number in isolation is not very useful, revised up from? Compared to? The forecast without Brexit would be?
A definitive non answer from the PM is a yes, probably the only way to balance the books with all the extra spending needed.
Shame the money doesn't all go to the right places
Unless it’s the IMF and it’s a teeny weeny downward adjustment 😉
puts in line with expected French GDP and the Ez in 2019
hes for the high jump with such crazy realism - “scab”
Still no posted source though?
I thought in your position you'd be fully aware that posting data without a reference to back up the said data renders the data entirley unreliable.
I know the forum is broken, but is it really beyond your skill set to post a link to your source information.
And I see you're still casually trying to wind people up and the end of every post, I guess the 'P' is good for something 😉
Source #1: err, the Bank of England
Source #2: stumbled across an old empty dealing floor of a bank that had now moved all its staff (000s of them) to Le Touquet and Naples offices and there was an old sheet of forecasts for Europe floating around with the tumbleweed
shame, they were q fun those bankers. But forget red versus blue, these poor guys weren’t even allowed a single passport
It is funny how no one is now giving any credence to THM. You reap what you sew. Troll endlessly and cast baseless aspersions on folk and you end up a laughing stock
Unless it’s the IMF and it’s a teeny weeny downward adjustment [b]despite all our major trading partners being adjusted upwards[/b]
(30 seconds wasted feeeding the trollll)
And now we are catching them up again kelvin -
the upgrade was much bigger than the marginal downgrade you chose to post a graph about
you could put them both together and compare? That would be honest albeit unhelpful for the narrative
After your deep concern about the iMF numbers you should be much happier with the BoE giving a much more upbeat message -
the IMF adjusted their expections for UK GDP down by 0.1% point (huge admittedly) to 1.5% and there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth. The BoE revised up their forecasts to 1.8% just below the IMF’s 1.9% for France in 2019e and silence
we should be happy - unless you are geared up the eye balls because rates going up here before Europe
still great to know that the good old uK is confounding the scaremongers
Troll. "Deep concern" … where did I say that? I just questioned why we weren't upgraded when our trading partners where… I asked what the IMF knew for that to have made sense to them… no answers… my guess is that they think that we aren't well placed to take full advantage of the trading possibilities that should be coming our way… and I'd suggest they may think that is related to Brexit.
Well IGM, I/we can follow what one of France’s leading banks IS doing or follow the advice (sic) of people who regularly post inaccurate statements on MTB forums. Not a tough choice
Interesting point of view. Let me offer an alternative one.
Individual companies, and indeed individual sectors, often do things for very specific reasons which don’t correspond to the generality of the situation.
Now I have no inside knowledge on a big French bank, but I’d have thought when you think it might not be about to go swimmingly then making sure there’s a foot in each camp might be sensible.
Or in other words a big French bank might want a strong London office precisely because they think a good deal is not coming.
But then I’m no banker and I’m certain they know the odd thing I don’t.
They have that already. They are merely investing more here. Who knows perhaps they just want £ earnings for when the € craters 😉
still hope they don’t feel lonely with the mass tidal wave/exodus of bankers (not) going the other way
but on your sensible thing - the Uk banks have largely done that anyway already. So you make a good point
Just printed off the latest 100pp plus HoL assessmwntbof Brexshit and fin services regulation and supervision - fun read on the train !!!
first lines of opening two paragraphs nail it, let’s hope the wombats agree
still great to know that the good old uK is confounding the scaremongers
So.. government analysts are wrong, and you're right?
We can expect to be fine, yes? We'll have soft brexit?
Just printed off the latest 100pp plus HoL assessmwntbof Brexshit and fin services regulation and supervision
just looked for that, given you recommended the first two paragraphs (you never know, poor engineer though I am I might just follow it) but couldn’t find anything new HoL on the parliamentary briefings site.
Should I be looking somewhere else?
(just send me a link to put me out of my misery - blinkin’ t’interweb)
Keep up molly - we'll have unicorns. Though I think most of them will be deployed to the Irish border which they'll control from invisible balloons.
IGM
here you go - first lines of first two paras
a few mates quotes in the depths of the report but skim read lot
Wasn’t “high degree of regulatory alignment” pretty much the precise form of words that Hammond was slapped down so firmly for using?
SUMMARY
Open and globalised capital markets are in the interests of both the UK and
the EU. Operating against the backdrop of a robust regulatory framework, they
promote financial stability and give businesses and consumers access to the
products and services they need. The Government has stated that the UK will
leave the EU Single Market, which allows for the free flow of financial services
across the borders of 28 Member States, when it exits the EU. It is imperative
that doing so does not undermine the benefits of participation in a globalised
financial system.
In agreeing the relationship between the UK and the EU post-Brexit, both sides
should favour an end state allowing mutual market access. Fragmentation would
lead to costs increasing and to financial stability deteriorating. The dangers of
disintegration are already apparent in proposals that envisage the possibility
of relocating the clearing activity of central counterparties (CCPs) to the EU,
and in the political rather than purely economic calculations emerging in the
broader Brexit negotiations.
Well count me reassured. Or not that just says its real bad if we mess it up
No mol, the exaggerators and scaremongers are being proved wrong so far
Our side look rather silly in hindsight with their fear predictions. - none have come close to being true.
Which is a relief
No idea but given that we have the same regulatory rules right now - many of which are global standards (unless your French and want to cheat) the whole debate on regulatory alignment is a red herring and an amusing one at that
Its deliberately so and part of their clever strat comm strategy to create division and fool the easily led. It works.
You only needed the top lines of the first two paras mike