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The downgrade was on already poor future growth predictions, despite upgrades to all our trading partners. Not sure what your other nonsense is about. Keep it vague THM.
At least they had one to crack, unlike ours 😉
Every day another cabinet member has to be told off and you want to focus on their lack of unity. It far far superior to our unity, which is not even superficial.
You can repeat it twice if you like - but if you don’t understand business cycles and their timing it won’t matter one jot
any chance of a graph showing how big the upgrade was. You can even use the same scale
UK growth stronger than expected, again
Some companies cashing in, the rich getting richer is only one way to look at growth.
I'd look at the health care crisis, the homeless crisis, the social care crisis, the stalled state infrastructure project crisis, the affordable housing crisis, the lack of police on the street crisis.
We are literally becoming a 3rd world country.
But some stocks are up, so that's growth?
Fastest to slowest growing nation in G7 since the vote, even with the low £, average family >£600 worse off thanks to inflation.....
Yeah it's an economic miracle, just because it didn't live up to austerity Osbournes bonkers predictions, doesn't make it any less batshit.
On the plus side the Tories have been exposed as utterly incompetent, barely a week can pass without Mogg, or Johnson etc undermining May and Davis' performance at the Brexit select committees are a regular & hilarious expose of how clueless Brexiters are about, well ....... Brexit!
literally
In the literal sense?
literal as your posts THM 😉
Crazed Marxist Paul Johnson of the IFS at it again…
"All economists, with one or two very ideologically aligned exceptions, all economists take the view that from an economic point of view Brexit is going to be damaging."
https://amp.uk.businessinsider.com/ifs-director-paul-johnson-brexit-is-going-to-be-damaging-2018-1
Still, let's get the flags out if the damage can be limited… a price worth paying for… oh, I forget… something about Syrians.
You really are getting yourself in a terrible tizz
i think people get the point about the -ve impact, you really don’t need to keep dressing it up as something it isn’t. Any chance of the comparative graphs - size of IMF downgrade vs yesterday’s upgrade so we can see the huge-er?
Johnson is normally good with his figures so surpised by him saying “one or two” when that is “litteraly” wrong
But his actual comments are merely common sense
What Brexit is essentially about is making trade more difficult with our nearest, biggest and richest neighbour. [agreed]
"That in the end, that is the economics of Brexit. We are withdrawing from a Single Market, presumably, and withdrawing from a customs union, presumably, and that just has to make us worse off. [agreed]
"How much worse off we don't know. It might be a relatively small amount. Hopefully a good deal less traumatic than the [2008] financial crisis."[agreed]
Igm - agreed, the forum is basically screwed now.
new forum doing my head.
THM, ask Bloomberg for a new graph if you're so keen to compare apples with oranges. The graph I posted wasn't created by me… so repeatedly asking me to produce you a graph is just time wasting trolling.
So "Brexit dividend"… why does this keep popping up if "people get the point about the negative impact"? Additional borrowing projected by OBR suggests that is fantasy… but it's still reported as news by most media outlets (it was impossible to avoid it on the BBC this week).
Your the one who was putting up a pointless chart and then getting narky when it’s pointed out. True remoaner style. Exaggerate and abuse when fronted
And BTW it’s Richard to you
But his actual comments are merely common sense.
You'd think so… but only this week key ministers were saying they expect no negative impact as a result of not being inside SM & CU.
I don’t GAF what they say in posturing. - which is all that’s happening
i an merely relieved that Uk economy is doing better that expected, that manufacturing is recovery, jobs are being created etc all at a slowing part of our very extended economic cycle I am also happy that the EUs later recovery is now well established and accelerating although concerned that this might be capped by strong € I prefer win:win scenarios
but frankly more concerned about what happens when official stealing ends in 3Q this year, are we ready for a shock?
“Igm – agreed, the forum is basically screwed now.”
Think Of the new forum as post-Brexit Britian: sort of works, some sycophants think it’s brilliant, but it’s essentially ****ed
Johnson as you would expect merely talks sense
"There's a lot of uncertainty about how damaging," he says.
“If you think a sovereign state should have control of its borders - and it's not unreasonable to think a sovereign state ought to have control of its borders - then you need to be outside the EU," he says
"But there is a cost to that, an economic cost," he says. "What both sides are wrong about is suggesting you can have your cake and eat it, to coin a phrase."
Agreed
Johnson as you would expect merely talks sense
It's always confusing when you dip back into this thread at the end and have to read up for context. A different Johnson - that explains it.
What i thought a well aracer
Still THM seems to have taken cougars comments to heart and has stopped trolling his arse of prodding at everyone but jamby and igm
Its an edifying and beautiful sight to behold him discussing like a grown up
This could actually be a debate if we stopped feeding him.
Exaggerate and abuse when fronted.
Cite my exaggerated claim.
My abuse is rare, and as far as I can remember, has only been aimed at one person when it has slipped out… not due to having a different opinion, but because of tone and attitude. Nether the less, I should never do it, it's always the wrong thing to do. I apologise THM.
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 16px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: #eeeeee;">We are literally becoming a 3rd world country.</span>
It would seem to me you have never been to the third world ? We are the 5th richest country in the world and Brexit is going to be beneficial to us
TMH of course the EU is our richest neighbour, they are our only neighbour 😉 As for making trade more difficult, possibly marginally so yes. The issue is the trade off, we will be making trade with the rest of the world (where 90% of global growth will come from) much easier. Plus we will lose lots of unecessary and irrelevant regulation. Net net its going to be a massive win imho. It’s the EU which have realled F’d this up, decades of heading in the wrong direction and too stubourn to acknowledge it. Junker and the EU took a punt on a Remain vote and lost, they too fell into the trap that somehow the views of Farage et al where in a minority.
Cheers Kelvin but nae probs. You might as well get “dick” comments when there is no report button 😉
That this is no longer correct, thanks to Brexit
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px; background-color: #eeeeee;">We are the 5th richest country in the world</span>
https://www.ft.com/content/7508bf1e-8a46-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1
Just marks this as self-delusion
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px; background-color: #eeeeee;">and Brexit is going to be beneficial to us</span>
As for making trade more difficult, possibly marginally so yes.
So you think the ending of free trade might just cause some trade issues....possibly. It has to have a negative effect for economic reasons even I understand 😉
both of these are hopes not reality where as trade being affected is certain.The issue is the trade off, we will be making trade with the rest of the world (where 90% of global growth will come from) much easier.
except we are port it all across . Even if true it will take some time for this win to happenPlus we will lose lots of unecessary and irrelevant regulation.
I genuinely read that in the voice of TRump In fairness I think this says more about me than you.Net net its going to be a massive win imho
“We are the 5th richest country in the world and Brexit is going to be beneficial to us”
Thought it was 6th since the Brexy vote.
”Plus we will lose lots of unecessary and irrelevant regulation.”
Unfortunately not. The reality is the standards and regulations will end up still applying de facto, but we will no longer have a say in defining them. Such is life. But you’ll get used to it.
igm it moves about a bit due to fx rates, hence 5->6 post Leave vote and now I believe back to 5th
Relative GDP growth since 1998 (not chart is to March 2017 but story is the same)
Lol graph stops on 2016...
So you’re story is we’ve done well as part of the EU then Jamba, me old son. That’s what you’re chart shows.
Smiley winking face.
Wow being in the EU has been amazing for the UK according to jambas graph
igm it moves about a bit due to fx rates, hence 5->6 post Leave vote and now I believe back to 5th
Latest report still has us behind France. The good news is we're due to move out of 6th place this year though. India is due to overtake us too.
So going by that graph, if anyone should be leaving the EU it’s Italy. Unless Greece can blame Europe for its crash.
Remain, that ship has sailed
Jeremy Corbyn on Marr show today
@zokes EU has held us back, Eurozone is disaster for most esp Italy. Greece abused the system using euro as it’s tool of choice.
I never knew you were such a Corbyn fan
Eurozone is disaster for most esp Italy.
Well it's a good job we're leaving that then...
“EU has held us back”
You don’t half chat some shit. Take another look at the graph YOU posted and try again.
You see that dip in 2008 zokes? That was the EU was that.
😂😂😂
its takes a real special levels to both post a graph that does not support your claim that ends before the period we are discussing.
Chapeau Jamby
TBH it's fairly tough to find any evidence to support the claims, better off just being bold and hoping people don't look at it
Are you taking about remoaners or leavers, mike?
Seems like a no score draw so far
It pretty obvious who he is talking about not least because he says it.
I note you chose to not defend jamby but went for the approach of shooting those who pointed out the weakness in his point/graph, so weak even you cannot defend him/it. Given this why shoot folk/a point you actually agree with?
As i said previously you are correct the current economic view is mixed [ but we are growing slower than them and the B of E think it has cost us]and it seems as if its not going to be as bad as project fear [ many of us never thought it would be]. However that is not saying its going to be better - which again is a view you yourself hold.
Essentially you have attacked him even though you agree with his points.
1066
Wasn’t project fear the thing about billions of Turkish / Syrian immigrants overrunning your school / GPs?
It was pretty successful. Playing to people's fears normally is.
Both sides did it with one side over egging the economic consequences and one side lying about how much money was spent and immigration.
I dont see a lot to be proud of in either campaign personally but I think leave were both the bigger lies and , self evidently, the more successful.
The problem is now many of us can still just see the lies and that it wont achieve what they want and cannot get behind this, where as thm can [ no insult intended]. The country is probably more divided now than before the vote and I dont see a resolution to this near 50/50 split. Some people are going to be unhappy.
My real problem is we will end up with a deal that no one was really voting for and probably could not have won if the choice was the deal we get or remain. Another referendum on the final deal, whilst still my preference, wont help heal the rift that splits parties and the people.
Pretty clear who we’re talking about, thm. Stop trolling.
2nd ref is looming I think.
EU has held us back
You keep saying this, but you've not managed to bring any convincing evidence. You're covinced though so you must have some. Haven't you?
.
Heard that (always listen to that show). Oborne is a good writer, but panel shows don't really suit him, do they?
THM and Jamba have very different views of what should, and what will, happen as regards the UK and rEU… and very different styles of posting about that… not hard to tell them apart.
Seem to remember saying something similar to this previously based on my own knowledge and experience. Not sure it’s nice to see folk agreeing with me.
It seems that the Tories too busy briefing against each other over Brexit to bother fixing any of the real issues that affect the country.
It's the Traitors Vs the Swivel-eyed
Indeed. I wonder if the infighting will lead to some sort of schism within the party, or will permanently taint the Conservatives in the eyes of the electorate.
Apologies if that reads a lot like wishful thinking.
the swivel-eyed are going to be furious if they dont get what they want, unfortunately for them a recent poll has only 16% wanting to leave the single market
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/majority-back-continued-single-market-membership-after-brexit-new-poll-finds-a3744116.html</span>
In the 50/50 world of brexit, thats a big number and underlines that Mays Lancaster House speech was just another of her standard misreadings of the situation
From her time as Home Secretary, it's been obvious that May's long term strategy has been to dither, obfuscate and generally do very little until a problem goes away. May is playing for time, it's obvious to her that Brexit is most definitely not a binary choice and that we need to be closely aligned with some trading bloc and as a result there will be a supranational agreement and legal framework of some description that makes a mockery of the idea of "sovereignty". There's genuine distaste amongst the public for a trade deal with the US that will result in lower food standards or letting US big pharma gouge the NHS. Likewise, simply engaging with the EU and asking for concessions in exchange for remaining in the EU isn't enough to placate those who were told that bendy bananas, incandescent light bulbs, brown people with prosthetic hooks and "red tape" are costing us £350m a week and that we can have all of the advantages offered by membership of the EU for free because Winston Churchill single-handedly liberated Europe in 1945. Likewise, remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market means some open border policy and adherence to trading bloc rules without any say in future legislation.
You can't blame May for bumbling along, promising everything to everyone and hoping that the problem simply goes away, a bit like the Westminster abuse inquiry.
THM and Jamba have very different views of what should, and what will, happen as regards the UK and rEU… and very different styles of posting about that… not hard to tell them apart.
It was more the unflappable love of all that is Tory
Got a spare €650,000?
If so, there's an easy way to keep your EU citizen status (even if you're keen to remove that status from everyday folk)…
https://amp.ft.com/content/110f57ee-02a3-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5
The New Zealand-born billionaire behind Legatum, the London based think-tank that emerged as one of the most vocal advocates for Britain’s departure from the single market and the customs union, has obtained EU citizenship via Malta.
Actually, reading the details, it's not easy at all… takes a serious amount of planning… it's not just about handing over the cash.
There is a difference between lying as in stating the opposite of facts, making stuff up with no evidence and predictions failing to be 100% accurate.
Just read the minutes from a December Q&A between various representatives of Pharma industry associations and the European Medicines Agency. The outcome is still that the preparations should be for a Hard Brexit. Therefore, due to the long lead-times involved, Pharma are continuing to commit lots of time and money to preparing for no-deal. It would simply be too late to wait it out with fingers crossed.
Will it ever be possible to count the financial cost of the vote to Leave? In just this one sector, the cost will be counted in hundreds, if not thousands, of millions.
We will all pay teh price in increased drugs costs, its OK the NHS is in a peachy state and can easily afford many millions more
Fortunately, at least in the UK, manufacturers cannot simply raise the price of a medication. So, the short term impact is most likely one of profit but the potential exists for a longer-term price impact for new medicines.
One way it certainly could raise NHS costs is by preventing parallel importation from cheaper EU markets.
Of course it's important to realise that the rather abstract concept of "price impact" for the NHS actually means less medicine for the actual patients.
It might also explain why certain tabloids are printing allegations about doctors at a conference in Switzerland having the temerity to enjoy themselves when not at the conference venue.
It might also explain why certain tabloids are printing allegations about doctors at a conference in Switzerland having the temerity to enjoy themselves when not at the conference venue.
OK, I'll bite. Why am I paying for doctors to go on a jolly to Switzerland?
I take it someones posted this. The EU position on a transition. less tan a year for May to bluster then agree to everything
In their guidelines, the EU say:
All EU rules and regulations - as well as EU rule changes adopted after March 2019 - should apply in the UK during the transition phaseThere can be no "cherry picking" on the single market - so free movement into the UK should continue
The UK will not be involved in the decision-making of EU bodies
It cannot implement its own international agreements unless the EU agrees
Work should continue on finding a solution to the Northern Ireland border question, one of the main sticking points in the first round of negotiations
Speaking at a press conference after EU ministers agreed the negotiating guidelines, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said the UK would be allowed to attend decision-making meetings on a "limited, exceptional, case by case basis."
It would be able to negotiate trade deals with other countries but the deals could not come into force until the transition period was over, he added.
FFS
You aren't 5th elephant,
Doctors can be eligible up to £440 a year towards conferences from the NHS, it's was a 3 day event but only 16 hrs of talks, but longer workshops (not mentioned in the tabloids) but up to 6 hrs a day were left free for skiing, which is nice.
But they have to attend a certain number of hours a year on educational courses to keep their licence, so that £440 wouldve gone to a Travelodge in slough/Liverpool or birmigham or towards a ski trip in the alps.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">The majority of the fees wouldve been paid by drug companies, fellowships and the doctors themselves.</span>
But still keeping the plebs frothing about doctors having jolies is better than talking about the real issues facing the NHS.
Doctors can be eligible up to £440 a year towards conferences from the NHS
Phew... I thought that was my money being wasted. Turns out it was the NHS's!
Hang on a minute....
Dammit kimbers - stop spoiling it with boring facts. You're not playing the game.
Hmmmmmm - I'm also wondering how £440 counts as money wasted if it adds to the sum of knowledge of the medics concerned?
May “may” be incompetent, she “may” have a dismal track record, she “may” be leading a split party, she “may” have nutters in key places (fortunately surrounded by grown ups who clear up the mess) but
1. She has progressed deals through Parliament
2. Negotiated past the EUs delaying tactics despite claims that this would never happen
3. Is now going to be embarking on trade talks including on financial services which will also confound the naysayers
she just “may” pull it off which explains the vitriole and the absurd exaggerations of the remoaners who lived under the false assumption that Brexit couldn’t happen
extraordinary ...
not bad for an incompetent remainer 😉
aye its not bad but you have done better trolls than that 😉
Not only that, but the other lot, are ruling out a second referendum and pledging to do pretty much the same as the incompetent one
ok, there’s will be the “jobs first” version but hey....
£440 on conferences - who do they think they are, educated professionals trying to keep up with developments in their field? It's disgraceful. That's almost 0.5% of their salary costs!
Some very amusing frothing of brexies on Twitter after barnier explains what transition means for us.
http://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-29/johnson-and-gove-outflanked-by-government-economists/
. <span style="color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The analysis is led by the economics section of the arch-Brexiteer David Davis’s Dexeu - and not by that last bastion of the Remoaners, which cried Armageddon during the EU referendum campaign, the Treasury.</span>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.55em; font-size: 16px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0.5em 0px; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif;">The work was done and is owned by the cross departmental Government Economic Service.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.55em; font-size: 16px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0.5em 0px; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif;">With this device, the Treasury and the Chancellor Philip Hammond are trying to protect themselves from the inevitable charge that they are mugging the heroes of the Leave campaign, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.55em; font-size: 16px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0.5em 0px; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif;">In practice, of course, Johnson and Gove are being well and truly duffed up.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.55em; font-size: 16px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0.5em 0px; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif;">The point is that the analysis shows UK growth and prosperity would be significantly greater if UK rules and regulations for business were closely aligned to those of the EU, and never diverged to any significant extent - because this would be expected to deliver cheaper and less cumbersome access for UK goods and services to the EU's giant Single Market.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.55em; font-size: 16px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0.5em 0px; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif;">In other words, the civil service economists are underwriting the political position of Hammond, Amber Rudd and Greg Clark that it is worth sacrificing a degree of national control over rules and regs for the sake of becoming a bit less poor or a bit more rich (depending on what else is transpiring in an economic sense).</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.55em; font-size: 16px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0.5em 0px; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif;">Or to put it another way, the Whitehall "experts" - so derided by Gove in the run-up to the referendum - are getting their own back on Gove and Johnson by providing supposed empirical proof that the Leavers' passion to take back total control over making laws that affect business and commerce would be to throw mountains of £50 notes on to a religious fire.</p>
<span style="color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Reem, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The government economists' case for remaining "converged" with the EU is so clear and overwhelming, I am informed, that ministers tell me they are utterly bemused by how Johnson and Gove will dismiss it - as they surely will.</span>
EU’s position not surprising. They need Freedom of Movement into the UK to keep pressure off (well delay) other countries like France and Germany who’ll have to take up the slack once it’s shut down. Our compromise, everyone is registered and those coing after 2019 will have no right to stay post 2020. As for the new EU laws having proposed a “transition” it’s hard to see how May could not agree this.
Newsnight piece quite balanced, points out that EU unity looks likely to be exposed as a bluff
Anyway good news is it looks increasingly likely May will be replaced by a true Brexiteer shortly
Ending FoM earlier is just the UK smacking itself in the face with a plank.
Oooops even Davis' own analysis says that hard or soft Brexit will hurt UKs economy.
No matter how swivel eyed the brexie that replaces May
Facts prove to be the enemy of Brexit
"We have been clear that we are not prepared to provide a running commentary on any aspect of this ongoing internal work and that ministers have a duty not to publish anything that could risk exposing our negotiation position.”
No one still believes this, do they? That we need to keep "our cards close to our chest" because… "negotiations?" !?!!? The government can not decide which damaging version of Brexit to persue, and the clock is ticking… the secrecy is about covering up a lack of direction and capability, not about hiding a strong negotiating hand.
We've been very clear that we don't want to look incompetent.
With the vacuume of a follow up statement of substance, it's all perfectly clear.