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Remember she will deliver a deal, a bespoke deal, a deal like no it other, one where she names Sean Spicer as head of comms.
Tory Boy will bang on about how good she is and all she has achieved because nobody else wants their name on the omnishambles at the moment. At least she delivered the 150 seat majority that would allow her to govern easily.
How much higher will the £ go during this period of huge economic damage?
Are you fixing any future contracts at current rates zippy before the free fall?
Double post!
Maybe as high as it was day before before referendum? 😀
How much higher will the £ go during this period of huge economic damage?
Well it's still piss poor vs the Aussie $ which I hope lasts about
another month
How much higher will the £ go during this period of huge economic damage?
isn't it a product of the relative weakness of the dollar not a strength of the pound ?
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/12/13/twelve_month.stm ]$ vs euro[/url]
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/13/twelve_month.stm ]£ vs euro[/url]
John Cryan CEO Deutsche Bank confirmed in a soeech in Zurich that DB would move a few hundred relatively low level processing / admin jobs in the event of a “hard” Brexit. Nothing like the 1000’s reported in the press. Traders and high paid specialist jobs will stay in London
No massive surpise to me, I’ve been saying the same all along
it was the chief regulatory officer of Deutche bank who came up with the c4000 figure rather than the media Good to see that a few hundred job losses is a good result.
How about manufacturing industry Jamba? Any good news for those of us employed into the 'old fashioned' industries that made Britain Great? Do you have any inside info that will cheer us up - simple things like access to one of our largest markets under the same conditions as we have now?
Also how about the few 000 'low level processing /admin jobs?' Presumably **** 'em? It's not like they're your problem anyway.
Yes - the rebound in UK manufacturing is one of the most important pieces of domestic economic news in the past ten days. See ^.
Ignore the doomsdayers. Old fashioned is back in fashion !!! 😉
That's really great new THM. Any hints as to how quickly it will be reflected in real increases in wages and living standards?
the rebound in UK manufacturing is one of the most important pieces of domestic economic news in the past ten days
I wonder if this is companies buying stuff early whilst they still can do so easily? Fearing a price hike when tariffs are introduced?
Because we have a weak currency and are still in SM etc etc so exporting is great.Yes - the rebound in UK manufacturing is one of the most important pieces of domestic economic news in the past ten days.
When we're not in the SM etc and are trying to shift short shelf life products (I'm in food) across hard borders life will be substantially less pleasant.
Capn - depends on your time perspective. Given our poor long term productivity record, improvements in wages will take some time. In the sort term however, movements in £ impact inflation and hence real wages. We saw the negative effects when £ fell and will see the reverse now that £ has risen. So positive news coming.
But that is short term noise. Brexshit or no Brexshit the key to improving real wages and living standards remains productivity and supply side reforms which sadly take time and are therefore beyond the attention spans of most politicians. They prefer sticking plasters and snake oil instead. Neither work.
Long term more negative news irrespective of Brexshit.
That is why we are negotiating access to the SM in future. Let’s see what the terms of that access is......
Oh. SO this important piece of economic news isn't going to do any good in either the short or long term. I guess that's why they call it the dismal science.
Indeed, let's - and if the cost will hamstring the country for generations, maybe let's have a rethink on whether it's worth it, in a democratic fashion.
Yes it is. It’s positive. Manufacturing is performing well. Economic growth is higher than expected and inflation is likely to moderate as £ has strengthened
Nothing dismal in either the science or the result
The only thing that is dismal is the moaning denials when things turn out to be better than expected.
So we've had to spend a shit load of money to make things worse than before.
How that can be defined as a success , I'm sure someone will be along any second to tell me.
Aren't the forecasts of various economists for a dismal level of economic activity in 2018 as a result of brexit and the uk will lag behind eu
That is why we are negotiating access to the SM in future. Let’s see what the terms of that access is......
Ok.. so some serious questions then. You seem sure that we will retain favourable SM access and accept whatever terms are necessary, right?
This means that you think favourable SM access is what we will have to prioritise, right? This would therefore mean that the EU holds all the cards?
Kilo
No
Yes - different cycles
Mol
No - unsure but hopeful
No - we will negotiate them
Yes - clearly. It’s key
No - they also need to avoid negative impact. No deal is very bad for EU to and they know it cue comments from Irish and yesterday Spanish and Dutch
You mean no we wont have to accept the necessary terms but we will 'negotiate them'? But negotiating is hard - we ask, they say no, then we have to ask for less. In other words we don't always get what we want. Why so confident we will?
Yes - clearly. It’s key
Ah but it's key to you, cos you're an economist. However for politicians there is more than economics in play isn't there? That's why we had the damn referendum in the first place.
No deal is very bad for EU to and they now it cue comments from Irish and yesterday Spanish and Dutch
No deal is yes, but 'slightly unfavourable deal' is exactly what the EU need.
its also what they have said they will deliver
They cannot have a good deal for us as it encourages others to leave there has to be some pain for us
Secondly we want access to their market they hold all the cards
We will get a deal so shit neither leave nor remain will want it and THM will still call it a victory for democaracy and praise his leader
Yes. If we come out of this doing better then there'll be a domino effect and it'll break apart. After we leave we'll be a competitor to the EU though so they'll do all they can to put us at a competitive disadvantage. As you would with any competitor.
The only thing that is dismal is the moaning denials when things turn out to be better than expected.
So something turns out to be not quite as shit as expected and I am supposed to be happy when it is still more shit that what we had before...
Yes negotiate
Yes it’s hard
We won’t, both sides will compromise. We have already seen that
No, not because I am an economist. It’s because everything else depends on the nature of our future access to the SM. Hence as I have argued consistently ^ this has to be the priority. Horses and carts.
I think they will move beyond the games. In the end we need a win:win not a lose:lose (w:w in a relative sense as it’s worse than before. But for all but the undemocrsts thats history)
It takes a very narrow mindset (excuse me but true) to simply define us a competitor. We will continue to be major trading partners whose fortunes are intertwined
Kerley. We have to deal with what’s in front of us, not what we wish was in front of us. History is history. We are dealing with the present and the future now. Ok, should say some of us. That’s a personal choice.
FT article seems to disagree with your no. "UK growth to slow to 1.5% in 2018, leading economists predict"
teamhurtmore - Member
Yes negotiate
Negotiate, lol!
I've got a car worth 4 grand, it's not for sale, so if you want it that badly, I'll take 8 grand.
Pleasure doing business with you.
Yes you were burgled but not as much was stolen as you first feared ...now three cheers for the good news 😉So something turns out to be not quite as shit as expected
PS How shit it turns out remains to be seen as you have only looked in one room and then decided it was not as bad as feared
It doesn’t disagree. Smack on my estimate. We are in a slowdown phase. We recovered earlier and we peaked earlier
But 1.5% is better than project fear
I preferred Chewk.
This is an interesting redefinition of the concept of win-win to describe a situation where both parties are worse off than before...
Get with the game - we know that. It’s s given
We can make the future either better than we expect or worse that’s the choice reflected in w:w from here or l:l
So the way to a win-win is to expect it to be really really bad, and then be relieved when it isn’t quite as bad as you expected. Isn’t that precisely what you are accusing “remoaners” of doing?
No it isn’t
Yes it is.
Used the strong £ to buy some stock yet zippy?
What irks me with the jingoistic BS that seems to come out of the shite papers is the fact that thru greed or globalisation the country seems to have been effectively sold off doesn't get mentioned.
All the quintessentially UK Car brands are purely that a brand. (Other than a few of the smaller ones like Morgan)
MINI,Rolls Royce,Bently and Aston Martin being owned by gasp foreigners could be relocated anywhere.
Now the whole concept of taking control seems quite bizarre when you've actually not much to take control of.
Oh and what about 'Type approval' that little delight 🙂
Sorry about the rant I stood near some Daily Mails and Suns in Aldi today and may have been infected.
We are going to be much better off outside the EU. The EU27 are going to be worse off as there is no likelihood of another member whi can replace us in terms of trade and budget contribution. Every new trade deal we sign will mean less business for the EU as we buy elsewhere.
There is no such thing as a Brexit Bill. The £35-39bn represents what we owe for having been a member and extending the SM “benefits” until Dec 2020. It is NOT a cost of leaving, its the true cost of being a member of the EU
its the true cost of being a member of the EU
It's not. Money goes both ways when you're a member of the EU.
nor is there 27 countries ready to replace them for us and we lostThe EU27 are going to be worse off as there is no likelihood of another member whi can replace us in terms of trade and budget contribution.
as it will fr us when they doEvery new trade deal we sign will mean less business for the EU as we buy elsewhere.
Its weird you can see how it harms them but think this smaller nation economy v the EU with less wealth and power is someone going to be great as they crumble without us. Its very one sided, we will both be harmed, us more than them, and there are no winners here only degrees of losing and that competition we do win.
Its weird you can see how it harms them but think this smaller nation economy v the EU with less wealth and power is someone going to be great as they crumble without us.
Once you start chanting the mantra at the brainwashing sessions it doesn't take long. Just repeat enough and shout it out loud if it's ever looking like the argument is lost.
Is that how remoaners knew how to pick up the baton?
Perhaps your great wisdom could explain jambalayas comments there.
No the first para makes no sense apart from the budget contribution bit. But we know the score with the leave narrative. That’s ancient history
It's not. Money goes both ways when you're a member of the EU.
@sr yes it is, we will be getting back 60% of our annual contribution 2019-2020 and our rebate. The rest is things like the pension fund deficit the EU has built up over the last 40 years, ie the true higher cost of being a member
ie the true higher cost of being a member
Only of you completely ignore any benefits and increase in economic activity due to being a member.
@mike we are going to be much better off as trade opportunites outside the EU are much greater than those within, as an independent nation we’ll be juch more fleet of foot to take advantage. Also we will have distanced ourselves from the EU / eurozone time bomb. As for the EU they’ll be out off pocket by €10-12bn pa and have an historically very good customer now buying more goods elsewhere. What next for EU expansion ? The game of ever increasing membership papering over the substantial cracks has decisively turned a corner. The remaining larger nations like France and Germany will be under substantial pressure to pay more and accept those job seekers who would previously have gone to the UK.
Except new trade will be at worse terms than the eu for a long time and trade with the eu will now be on worse terms. Doesn't really add up.
jambalaya - Member
We are going to be much better off outside the EU.
No, on just so many levels, no.
Don't forget that Jambalaya uses the word 'we' as in the royal 'we' as with all of his ilk.
We as in once I've retired to the eu we?
@sr basically we are in the “high” scenario in return for transition period and “guaranteed” future free trade deal. Of course no deal = no money. In the graphic you can see sums paid vs received
[img] 
[/img]
you have been predicting this for years is there a timescale for detonation or you shutting up about it?Also we will have distanced ourselves from the EU / eurozone time bomb
If you have to put the word in "" its clearly not guaranteed.“guaranteed”
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42674567
Nicola Sturgeon has said she will be able to make a judgment on whether to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence by the end of this year.The first minister said her decision would be made when the shape of a deal between Britain and the European Union became clear in the autumn.
Her comments come ahead of the publication of a Scottish government assessment on the impact of Brexit.
The UK government has accused the SNP of trying to undermine the Brexit vote.
Fair play, given Scotland, NI and Wales would probably be better off in the EU than the UK out of it then why not. Love the idea that given Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain, pusing a remain vote is undermining the tory clustershambles is anything other than a good thing.
As Marr pointed out however, this proposed timing makes the whole strategy irrelevant. Far too late to have another vote then. More noise.
Interesting that the new Curtice poll shows 59% back an end to FoM
Messy old business !!!
As Marr pointed out however, this proposed timing makes the whole strategy irrelevant. Far too late to have another vote then. More noise.
Who said it had to be before 2019? An intention to make things better fast for people who voted to stay would surely/shirley be respecting democracy?
Interesting that the new Curtice poll shows 59% back an end to FoM
and Farage expects another referendum due to a significant shift/influence of remain.
Messy Eh Bro not the time for black and white definitions
[img] 
[/img]
Right then lets get some [u]REPORT-POST[/u] clicking going.
Just checking everyone’s had a lovely day/weekend and that the thread’s still open. Seems so, so [s] thank the Lord[/s] that’s good news. 😉 Train journeys would never be the same.
Have a very pleasant evening and a wonderful week ahead everyone. Swim and McMafia....
With Scotland there is also a couple of awkward facts. May has conceded that Holyrood needs to give consent for leaving the EU via a legislative consent motion ( as does the welsh parliament. Some folk think this significant the others do not. There is no chance at all of there being a LCM passed in holyrood
the other is the european convention on human rights is incorporated into scottish law and that cannot be changed by westminster. so a scottish resident will still be able to sue the Westminster government under its provisions and any UK wide organisation will still have to adhere to it
Except new trade will be at worse terms than the eu for a long time and trade with the eu will now be on worse terms. Doesn't really add up.
New trade with US, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan, South Korea and all the other countries the EU has trade deals with could be on same / better terms immediately we leave (eg within days or a few months as deals are agreed in short order - they NEED NOT be complicated)
Our trade with the EU can be on terms as good as we have for the areas we care about, thats part of the negotiation.
The EU is in a dreadful mess as it is very much in their member states interests to agree a broad free trade deal, however in their narrow bureaucratic career preservation interests its all aboit keep “the project” together even if the 27 are worse off.
As I have said many times, I have a more agressive and expansionist stance. WTO with EU and a focus on free trade globally. Replace much of our food imports with local prodiction and global import. My “Italian”olive oil seems to come from Tunisia these days (careful label checking and google). If subsequently the EU want a deal they can come and ask, if not then no bother. Every day they wait is another day we are forging new relationships elsewhere and another day where the EU has become less important
Our trade with the EU can be on terms as good as we have for the areas we care about, thats part of the negotiation.
categorically ruled out by all major players. its simply not possible for a host of reasons
very much in their member states interests to agree a broad free trade deal,
No it is not. Its in their interests to grab as much as they can from the UK and give as little as they can in return. financial services based in Frankfurt would be much better for the German economy that iuf it remains based in London
As for the trade deals - most take many years to do.
(eg within days or a few months as deals are agreed in short order - they NEED NOT be complicated)
Pure fantasy, the USA wants food coming in that is a massive change.
The EU does not have a full deal with Australia yet, it's being negotiated.
If the UK asks for the same or better terms then the other side gets to ask for something in return. Let me know when you find a good deal that has been negotiated in days.
As I have said many times, I have a more agressive and expansionist stance. WTO with EU and a focus on free trade globally. Replace much of our food imports with local prodiction and global import.
We know, it's been pointed out many times how much of a mess that would leave the UK in, you only have to go to the list of countries that rely 100% on the WTO to see why practically nobody does it. The Tariffs would form an extra tax on UK consumers and push up inflation, if you don't impose any then there will be no extra income and the UK would be a dumping ground for the world.
the other is the european convention on human rights is incorporated into scottish law and that cannot be changed by westminster.
Not sure that's strictly correct TJ. The European Convention on Human rights is incorporated into Scots law but it's my understanding that Westminster can change that. The problem being that Westminster would have to rewrite the devolution settlement to do so. Hence the fears of a unionist power grab.
Whether it would be wise for the tories to attempt this is a different question, particularly as John Curtices latest poll claims that 40% of nó voters want all the powers over fishing and farming currently held by EU returned to Scotland.
[url= http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2018/01/time-for-some-rethinking-in-scotlands-brexit-debate/ ]Curtices poll[/url]
Good morning everyone.
Two things of interest re financial services
1. While EU govs would love a slice of the tax revenue that accrues to the UK gov from fin services they are also aware that the relocation of activities away from London to EU and the subsequent fragmentation of wholesale markets would come at a clear cost. Source - EU briefing papers linked before
2. Interesting news over weekend that France’s BNP Paribas has announced major new investment in London to follow other recent investments involving new hiring and etc. Allez Yannick et bonne chance! What do they know on the inside re French approach to future deal negotiations in FS?!?
A side story I know, but Bolton (you might not know but he is the current leader of UKIP, LOL) has dumped the 25 year old model in a "party or partner" scenario.
The "party" (past tense) that got us into this mess, initially anyway*, is dissolving in front of our very eyes.
*Real blame is still with the Tory party trying to reduce the EU paradox within the Tory party of course. And failing badly.
A side story I know, but Bolton (you might not know but he is the current leader of UKIP, LOL) has dumped the 25 year old model in a "party or partner" scenario.
Because she stated on Twitter Megan Markle has "tainted" the Royal Blood and "...paved the way to a Black King...".
Hateful racist creature obvs. I don't know much about politics but I do know UKIP try to be under the banner of "whats best for Britian" and separate themselves from racial bias as shown in other groups e.g. Britain First.
gordimhor
NOpe Westminster cannot alter the Scotland act without the consent of holyrood. Westminster retains primacy and could legislate to close holyrood but they do not have the power to alter it
Yres, how did she get so cynical and head hard right at the age of 25?
Your supposed to go right wing as you get older! Ffs!
It's a shame UKIP only post ref being exposed for what they are,
Actually they were always were, kippers & Vote Leave always quietly happy to accept racists with a nod and a wink as long as they got their vote!
Ironic that the royal family more progressive than many of these patriots
Scotland does an assessment on the impact of Brexit and dares to publish it!
You will never guess what happened next!!
A UK government spokeswoman said: "We are seeking a deal that works for the whole of the UK, that delivers on the result of the EU referendum."Rather than trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum, we urge the Scottish government to work with us to ensure, as we leave the EU, we protect the UK's vital internal market.
"Scotland trades four times as much with the rest of the UK as it does with the EU, so it is vital that we ensure that market continues unimpeded."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42682253
Some highlights
The key findings are:
? On average each additional EU citizen working in
Scotland contributes a further £34,400 in GDP.
? The total contribution by EU citizens working in
Scotland is approximately £4.42 billion per year.
? On average each additional EU citizen working
in Scotland contributes £10,400 in government
revenue.
ALL OF THE INCREASE IN SCOTLAND’S POPULATION OVER
THE NEXT DECADE IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM PEOPLE
MOVING HERE. WITHOUT IMMIGRATION THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE, WORKING AND PAYING TOWARDS
PUBLIC SERVICES IN SCOTLAND IS LIKELY TO FALL.
[url= https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-most-important-brexit-detail-youve-never-heard-of ]Did I already post this?[/url]
Worth a read....
Yeah it's been referenced (the concept and principles not the link) whenever somebody posts the fantasy WTO option.
No deal is better than a bad deal.
Or as BoJo is now putting it...
Not leaving is better than a bad leaving.
“I’d rather us stay in than leave like that”.
PS - Hi everyone. Anything changed over the last couple of weeks? Jamba still Brextremist? THM still saying it’s a bad idea, but we’re going to do it anyway, and his company is prepared and will be fine? Everyone else sticking to their own dogmatic positions too? Occasional borderline racist outbursts from folk we’d forgotten existed?
As I understand it it takes time to challenge this under WTO, so we could get away with it in the short term, but it wouldn't be good for negotiating new FTAs, if we are already in dispute.
It's why no one trades under WTO alone, despite the brexiteers fantasies.
It also puts paid to desperately naive fallacies like this
EU has trade deals with could be on same / better terms immediately we leave (eg within days or a few months as deals are agreed in short order - they NEED NOT be complicated)
As the schedules we already have negotiated as part of EU bloc, No longer applicable eg https://www.politico.eu/article/us-rounds-on-britain-over-food-quotas-as-post-brexit-trade-woes-deepen/
Also as WTO schedules require consensus from all members they are very very slow.
Even 'friends' like America will be out to stiff is like ^^^^ and bombardier tarrifs etc
Westminster cannot alter the Scotland act without the consent of holyrood
TJ I think you are referring to the Sewel convention, which as far as I know is only a political convention with no legal force.
Although there were some plans to write the convention into the latest version of the Scotland Act I don't know if this actually happened. I will be delighted if I am wrong. I believe the current Westminster administration would have no qualms about ignoring Sewel or about closing the Scottish Parliament. Hell mend them if they do.
[url= https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/ukhumanrightsblog.com/2015/07/18/scotland-sewel-and-the-human-rights-act/amp/ ]Sewel and the human rights act[/url]
[url= http://www.mcgillandco.co.uk/Blog/2017/6/22/brexit-and-the-sewel-convention ]Brexit and the Sewel Convention [/url]