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Well remember that this is the same PM who, post-Weinstein, still supports the appointment of a vile misogynist to public office, so "getting the message" is clearly not her strong suit.
“Controversial new legislation”
No, really
Are Observor/guardian journos exempt from trying to understand issues before posting the latest Anti- Brexshit headline?
Take it back - some more rational analysis here
All of which brings us to the final problem with the buyer’s remorse theory: its proponents have spent so much time banging on about how terrible Brexit will be that they have neglected to come up with any solutions for tackling the reasons people voted for Brexit in the first place: low wages, job insecurity, the feeling that they were not being listened to. Remoaners have latched on to any piece of negative economic news – no matter how trivial – in the hope that this will lead to change of heart among leave voters. But they have struggled to sketch out a plan for dealing with Britain’s structural economic problems, which were there before 23 June 2016 and will still be there whether or not the referendum result is overturned.
Yep good analysis"the part of the global economy that most outperformed expectations in 2017 was the eurozone." Pity brexshit means we won't benefit from that.
Why not? We will still be mutually intwined trading partners as we are with US. Silly to pretend otherwise, unless one is engaged in project fear
Why not? We will still be mutually intwined trading partners as we are with US. Silly to pretend otherwise, unless one is engaged in project fear
Of course we will and we'll be paying more for imports and our exports will be worth less.
It doesn't take an economic genius to work that one out.
perditus - MemberWell THM, Mrs May has now reneged on a manifesto pledge on a free vote on hunting with dogs (good) - is that an undemocratic outrage and is she ignoring the 'will of the people' or is it just realpolitik.
Get with the programme, she started the process of reneging on manifesto promises in the queen's speech, partly because the DUP said no to some of them . The will of the 292,316 people is supreme
And forget about energy caps (stolen from Labour to pretend to be centrist and ditched completely) and migration caps (for which the same promise was included in the last 3 Tory manifestos and instantly abandoned)
Only just picked up on this…
…essential reading to balance up all the "large payments to rich landowners will stop after we drop CAP" nonsense that the media outlets meekly parroted for the government earlier in the week. As is so often the case, we can put a stop to that already, but our government chooses not to. I didn't know this. Add it to the list of things we probably should have educated ourselves about before the rush to referendum.
Anyway what’s this proposal malarkey about making you prepay VAT on goods imported from the EU ?Seems a tad bonkers.
Nothing new there. It's only news now because of the bill being discussed tomorrow. It was always the case that we were to gain 28(?) additional states that'll be handled the same way VAT wise as the rest of the world. Pain in the arse for many companies, but they'll have known about it for ages… and should be preparing for it. Just more grit for traders. It'll stop them being lazy… or some such bullshit, is probably the response you'd get from the Brexit ministers. Before the referendum it was all "nothing will change" from politicians and their funders, but, hey, no one believed any of that stuff? Right?
Are we taking bets on the Three Brexitiers getting shuffled, by the way? I think they'll all as safe as they are unsuitable for the roles they have.
[quote=teamhurtmore ]they have neglected to come up with any solutions for tackling the reasons people voted for Brexit in the first place
I'm sure the grown ups are busy building unicorn factories.
In part, that is because people voted remain or leave in the referendum for [s]complex[/s] irrational reasons.
FTFH
We will still be mutually intwined trading partners as we are with US.
But trading at a disadvantage...
Brilliant live breakfast tv report on a plastic factory,
reporters banging on about weak pound making his sales greater and boss man says the cost of the materials have gone up and negated any benefits , then finishes by saying Youd be mad to rely on a currency weakness as a business profit making strategy.
His factories highly automated and runs 24/7.
Just to finally out thm....
😆
"confused conservatism" 🙂
A politically correct Lydon, who would have thunk it? Worth listening to as ever. Thanks for posting Metalheart
How odd - oh it’s you MH. That explains it..,
You mean you don’t agree with his views on Brexit or Corbyn?
😯
Is THM still pretending its all goingh well and that the "remoaners" have exaggerated? Seems like it from glancing at others posts.
Its actually proceeding pretty much exactly as we expected.
Growth down, inflation up, 40 000 eu nurses lost, 1000s of EU doctors lost, large parts probably the majority of financial services moving into the EU, passporting rights gone, inward investment collapsing etc etc.
The government with no strategy and no idea what to do, still asking for the impossible of a "bespoke deal" ie have cake and eat it. Infuriating our allies and having to conceded every red line
And we haven't even left yet. this is merely the beginning of the disaster. Its going to get much worse.
Fortunately I live in the real world and can be critical of any government - I don't live in some Tory fantasy world and can see the real damage being done. I am not blinded by a completely bizarre far right ideology and I am capable of empathy
And still economical with the truth....
...odd choice of subject to re enter the thread with. You guys are becoming obsessed 😉 try a Killfile, it might help your overcome the addiction.
Arguing with yourself again THM? remember all I see is the very accurate "THM said something stupid"
And you respond to that - how smart is that. Obsessed or what. Still little things...
Remoaners have latched on to any piece of negative economic news – no matter how trivial – in the hope that this will lead to change of heart among leave voters. But they have struggled to sketch out a plan for dealing with Britain’s structural economic problems, which were there before 23 June 2016 and will still be there whether or not the referendum result is overturned.
He missed out, “lie” about each piece of news too !!! How long for the posse drums to beat...,
you know you just replied so perhaps you ought to aim that at yourself**
still you and self awareness eh big ask i know. LOTS OF WINKS TO SHOW ITS A JOKE GO HERE*
* everyone knows its not except the mods so shhh
** amusingly i wrote that to his first reply yet its even more pertinent to his second 😯
Some light reading for the remoaners
Britain’s manufacturers are more upbeat about the state of the global economy than at any time since 2014 and believe demand from overseas will sustain their businesses through another year of Brexit uncertainty,
Ach schade...
Jeremy Corbyn has insisted the UK cannot be a member of the single market after Brexit, disappointing some of his pro-European Union MPs. The Labour leader told colleagues that it was not possible to stay in the single market, as he set out his Brexit policy to the parliamentary party on Monday night.
is das richtig?
European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker says he believes Brexit will go ahead and the EU should tackle its looming budget shortfall. "Don't believe those who say that it's not going to happen and that people in the UK have realised their error... I don't think that's going to be the case," he told a Brussels conference. The EU budget commissioner said the UK's departure would leave a hole of about €12-13bn (£11-12bn; $14-$16bn).
Nicht wahr?
And?
Growth in Eurozone, increasing demand for UK products, which are still sold with internal market rules and ease, helping many UK based companies through the pre-Brexit slow down. Good news. It mean Brexit is a good idea does it?
Leader of Labour Party is a protectionist Bennite, with no interest in the Single Market — non-shocker.
rEU getting on with planning for an EU without UK as a member — also non-shocker.
Enjoy.....
Its actually proceeding pretty much exactly as we expected.
No, you expected and where told it would be Armageddon.
Growth may be down but you where told we’d have an immediate recession upon a Leave result greater than the Financial Crises
You where told there would be 500,000 job losses, there have been 150,000 new jobs created
etc ...
As for Eurozone growth outperforming the UK, well you should not be surprised given how long they have been stagnant, also as ECB introduced QE later than BoE (due to German resistance) the eurozone is recovering much later. Even with the Brexit uncertainty and project doom and gloom the UK is still growing and eurozone is barely able to “outperform”. A chart of cumulative growth/GDP would show very clearly how much the UK has outperfomred. Bloomberg had one in 2017
4% recession don’t forget 😉 !!
Still love the financial services scare stories. Barnier must love the way people swallow his guff
[ edit - this reply to Jamba made little sense after he added much the same point to his post with an edit, so deleted ]
A chart of cumulative growth/GDP would show very clearly how much the UK has outperfomred.
Yes, if you include the time before the Brexit vote, our growth is pretty good. Shame Leavers threw that away for us.
so despite being a drunk he is more competent than you at peddling guff 😉Barnier must love the way people swallow his guff
jambalaya - Member
Its actually proceeding pretty much exactly as we expected.No, you expected and where told it would be Armageddon.
NOpe - I expected reality and pretty much exactly what happened. Remember we haven't left yet - the disastrous effects we can see are only the beginning.
rEU getting on with planning for an EU without UK as a member — also non-shocker.
I hadn't read this at the time… bad enough to be funny…
https://amp.ft.com/content/7306b972-f49a-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00
David Davies upset that EU advising businesses to include a "no deal" Brexit in their planning…
Lots of stories on Politico about the EU budget planning which is 5 months behind schedule already and the rows are intensifying despite the EU trying to just kick the can down the road. BBC picked up on headline statemet that EU will have a budget black hole of somewhere from €9-13bn to fill with suggestion that 50% will come from soendig cuts (despite eveyone asking for more money for everything from border security to Brexit related impact “compensation”) and 50% from higher contributions / new EU wide taxes (branded as “enviromental levies”)
https://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-calls-for-higher-payments-to-post-brexit-eu-budget/
https://www.politico.eu/article/regions-demand-brexit-compensation-from-eu-budget/
https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-gets-glimpse-of-post-brexit-eu-budget-horrors/
Does that make you happy?
Yes jambalaya, it's a damned shame that the EU will also be paying the price to placate the new God of our time, Brexit.
We lose, they lose. All to try and unify a Tory party! I mean,can you even believe that in hindsight?!
And they try to worry people about having a "Marxist" leader in power!
F****** Great isn't it?
Such a laugh.
NOpe - I expected reality and pretty much exactly what happened.
Nope. You grossly misrepresented the forecasts from the outset, the impact post vote and the likely impact going forward at the macro level and with relation to industries you seem not to understand. You abused the highly skilled members of our negotiating team and insulted their intelligence, while misrepresenting again the manner in which negotiations take place. You also made false claims about stage one of the process and whether progress was possible. Apart from that...
Remember we haven't left yet - the disastrous effects we can see are only the beginning
And continue to do so. There has been little if any “disastrous” effects despite all the uncertainty, indeed the outcome has surprised on the upside with revisions upwards on economic data and economic activity eg manufacturing outperforming expectations. Apart from that....
We lose, they lose. All to try and unify a Tory party! I mean,can you even believe that in hindsight?!
It’s pretty mad a wonky Tory party is causing so much madness.
new EU wide taxes (branded as “enviromental levies”)[/quoteLevies to be introduced on using plastic an excellent idea, plastic bag tax was effective, if the Eu can mitigate loss of UK contribution and reduce plastic pollution that would be brilliant.
There has been little if any “disastrous” effects
Living squeeze thanks to falling £ has sent personal debt, in-work poverty, food bank use, to new highs.
Loss of skilled EU staff in NHS seriously compounding the winter crisis. Real effects hurting the most vulnerable, while average stwer nicely insulated.
George Osbornes, never really had much credibility anyway
Kimbers the issue is all the problems we can see happening with brexit are beneath the attention of tories - its only poor people after all. Some are so ideologically attached to the tories that they can see no wrong and with their narrow life experiences and lack of empathy they cannot actually see the damage.
There has been little if any “disastrous” effects
I assume thm has asked the staff how they are coping there.
So there we are - it’s simply a Tory issue!! No surprise. Hence the clouded/myopic judgement (or lack of it on display)
Both major parties are committed to essentially the same result - ok one claims it will deliver a jobs first Brexshit and wanted to trigger A5O much earlier than the other. But wait this is a Tory issue - no, really !!
If it’s the poor who are being affected why are Labour - the conviction party - as committed as the nasty Tories?
Until (if) labours in power they can be as woolly as they like over Brexit.
The referendum campaign, election, DUP dirty deal, economic slowdown, living squeeze, lack of plan, gross incompetence & dishonesty from Davis & Johnson (+ their unsackability) Mays current weakness as even the rabid brexies too terrified of poisoned chalice of being Brexit PM ....all owned by the Tories & their divisions over Europe, no matter how much it divides & weakens the country, the Tories will keep ploughing on with it.
Every mp I'd like to punch is a Tory that probably includes Blair.
The labour party appears ambivalent to Brexit , but cynically is letting May and the grown-ups make such a hash of it that the Tories will carry the toxic liability for many elections to come . Look how well they did in the last election. No need to take a political stand when your opponents are taking a shotgun to their own feet.
Here is the BBC piece I mentioned (actually from last year and references an EU blog I linked to before)
“Brexit will blow a hole in the EU budget”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40433450
Shortfall from UK leaving is €10bn pa (so €70bn over the budget period) but comission budget head says real gap is twice that at €20bn pa as EU wants / needs to spend more on a number of areas inc border control and DEFENCE.
Unless May surprises everyone and pulls a deal off!
so Jamba - what about the loss of 5% of the NHS workforce since brexit? usually we recruit 40 000 nurses per year from the EU. this year almost none.
“Brexit will blow a hole in the EU budget”
Yes it will blow a hole in the UK budget too as we now need to spend a huge amount more on stuff we used to get as part of membership. You seem very excited about screwing people over.
teamhurtmore - Member
Unless May surprises everyone and pulls a deal off
As your criteria for success is a bespoke deal you will be happy with anything. Any deal will leave the UK worse off. Get the bunting out for that street party.
[quote=teamhurtmore ]Unless May surprises everyone and pulls a deal off!
i think she would surprise even herself...
Does that make you happy?“Brexit will blow a hole in the EU budget”
The labour party appears ambivalent to Brexit
No thinking person can still consider that Corbyn even "appears" ambivalent to Brexit. He might let a few of the smart people around him play games to try and keep things sticky for the Conservatives, but he'll whip his MPs for Brexit when it counts. He's made that clear.
As your criteria for success is a bespoke deal you will be happy with anything
Proof reading (even) might be a good idea?
The deal may and co keep on saying they want is simply not on offer and never going to happen
THM now that you've seen how successful brexit is have you changed your mind about being a remainer?
Does that make you happy?
Of course it makes him happy, even if he is planning on skipping off to live in the EU.
It’s happenend???
Sorry zippy I missed that....
But no, I have not
The deal may and co keep on saying they want is simply not on offer and never going to happen
Odd that everyone is wasting so much time on this and that Europeans are now talking about the importance of ensuring a wider deal
Still much better to keep making things up to suit the moaner narrative
Are you referring to the "moaner narrative" in that David Davies letter?
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTDbfHQW4AIvIZl.jp g"/> :small[/img]
No
My favourite line … with some additions…
[i]"None of these statements take account of the[/i] [b]possible[/b] [i]implementation period or the future[/i] [b]unknown[/b] [i]relationship"[/i]
…while the "bespoke" deal is so vague, and so far down the line, what does he expect? For EU institutions to keep saying "wait and see" in their advice, when March 2019 is just around the corner for companies planning for periods any longer than a year (ie all successful companies).
haha that letter is laughable, the hypocrisy of the Tories blaming the EU for talking up no deal sums up how ludicrous the brexiters are
“Does that make you happy?” 😉
For EU institutions to keep saying "wait and see" in their advice, when March 2019 is just around the corner for companies planning for periods any longer than a year (ie all successful companies).
Indeed they must have been really irritated by their own sides silly delaying tactics too. Especially when the fudges were announced....
There has been little if any “disastrous” effects
Significant loss of growth? going from the top of the growth table to the bottom? Loss of 10% of the NHS qualified workforce, rising inflation, stagnant wagees ie cuts in spending power. Loss of EU institutions, loss of financial services that actually keep the UK afloat financially? Loss of inward investment, companies moving out of the UK etc etc. Seems pretty disastrous to me. Cuts in living standards for the vast majority of the UKs population allied to disastrous economic performance from the country a a whole?
And we have not actually left yet - this is just the beggining
No.“Does that make you happy?”
You?
As someone who thinks it would be better for us to remain a member of the EU, but insists that we accept whatever will replace it (even though our government hasn't even agreeed what that should be, never mind what it can be once agreed with our largest/larger partner in all respects), are you happy with Davies scrabbling around in the dark?
First error in first sentence. Still proving the guardian comment correct and ignoring the revision up to the last growth data point
Please read up on financial services too. Impact again downgraded significantly from intital project fear claims
The only rational conclusion is that th UK has weathered the expected negative impact of the Brexshit vote better than expected but that doesn’t fit the moaner narrative and desperate need for exaggeration. On top of that both sides have compromised in order to get through phases one - considered impossible by remoaners - and are now preparing stage two. Far too slow of course, but inching our way forward despite all the crap
Stop moaning.
"Negative impact of the Brexshit vote"
"Far too slow of course"
I’m not - we are making progress albeit too slow but this is the EU after all
And Merkel has here own problems, ditto Spain and the CEE. They are bored of brexit already but the budget is a wake up call. Time to stop farting around
I’m not - we are making progress albeit too slow but this is the [s]EU[/s] Dave Davis after allI’m not - we are making progress albeit too slow but this is the EU after all
40 000 eu nurses lost, 1000s of EU doctors lost,
On the basis that there were only 58,698 staff from the EU in England in June 2016 it is safe to say these figures bear no relation to the truth. Indeed the number of EU nationals employed by the NHS was slightly higher a year later being 61,891 so there has been an increase. Source for figures NHS statistics published [url= http://content.digital.nhs.uk/7572 ]here[/url]. 2017 figures on 22 September, 2016 on 6 January.
Hmmm - I'll look into it further mefty. I was paraphrasing stuff I had seen reported in reliable media
EU wants / needs to spend more on a number of areas inc border control and DEFENCE.
sounds eminently sensible. it was you pointing out how badly the borders were being looked after wasn't it? some mechanisms in place to allow european military forces to work more cohesively would be wise as well. shame we're not going to be involved. safer borders for them means safer borders for us.
EU nationals have fallen as a percentage of those joining the NHS
In 2015/16, 11% of those joining the NHS were EU nationals (counting those for whom a nationality was known). In 2016/17, this fell to 9%. For nurses the percentage of EU joiners fell from 19% in 2015/16 to 12% in 2016/17.In 2016/17, 11% of nurses leaving the NHS were EU nationals, up from 9% in 2015/16.
In 2016/17, the percentage of joiners with EU/EEA nationality fell, whilethe percentage of leavers with EU/EEA nationality rose.
This change was particularly pronounced for the Nurses and Health
Visitors staff category, as the charts below show. In 2015/16, 19% of
nurse joiners were of EU nationality, while in 2016/17 this fell to 12.4%.
Meanwhile the percentage of nurse leavers with an EU nationality rose
from 8.9% to 11.3%
NHS Digital, the agency that collects data on the health service, found that in the 12 months to June, 9,832 EU doctors, nurses and support staff had left, with more believed to have followed in the past three months.This is an increase of 22% on the previous year and up 42% on two years previously. Among those from the EU who left the NHS between June 2016 and June 2017 were 3,885 nurses and 1,794 doctors.
[img] 
[/img]
Yet as a percentage EU participation in NHS workforce still went up from 5% to 5.2%.
EDIT: Good to see you are still struggling, 9,000 did leave but 13,000 came in, hence the increase. The simple fact is there has been a slow down in growth of EU participation, but no reduction.
Mefty - OK - must remember not to rely on my obviously faulty memory 🙂 good call.
30 000+ is the actual shortage of nurses in the NHS ie whole time equivalents across the UK not just england. As many posts are part time this is equivalent to 40 000 bodies
Usually there are around 1000 nurses a month from the EU apply to join the NMC register ie register to work as nurse in the UK this has dropped to a few dozen. ie there are 10 000 less EU nurses a year coming to the UK
Many of these applicants will work outside the NHS or for agencies who work in the NHS thus not appearing on the NHS workforce however their absence still makes the nursing shortage worse.
So - comparing apples to pears in our different numbers ( NHS / total registerd nurses, UK / England, all NHS staff / registered nurses) and also me muddling numbers.
Should have been "10 000 less EU nurses a year coming to the UK contributing hugely to the 40 000 headcount nurse shortage in the NHS"
Better? I shall endeavour to be more accurate. I sometimes forget as I dip inand out of this thread that alongside all the baiting and sneering and point scoring there are still people actually reading the debate as a debate.
I shall go and stand in a corner
mefty - Member
Yet as a percentage EU participation in NHS workforce still went up from 5% to 5.2%.
indeed as Meftys report points out the % of unskilled EU staff increased, whilst the % of EU doctors & Nurses decreased
mefty - MemberYet as a percentage EU participation in NHS workforce still went up from 5% to 5.2%.
Less Spanish nurses and more Polish cleaners?
Spain has historically been a good source of nurses for the UK as Spain trains more than they need. anecdotally they have stopped coming to the UK
Lots of "churn" with EU nurses so more leaving and less arriving quickly has the effect of creating shortages
Usually there are around 1000 nurses a month from the EU apply to join the NMC register ie register to work as nurse in the UK this has dropped to a few dozen. ie there are 10 000 less EU nurses a year coming to the UK
On the basis that there are only 22 thousand EU nurses in England, the number of EU nurses simply can't have been growing by 1,000 a month.
Mefty 22000 EU nurses in the english NHS or 22000 eu nurss working in the UK? Big difference
A similar amount left. They have stopped arriving but continued to leave. they don't tend to be here permanently - its usually only a short time that EU nurses work in the UK a year or two at an ( informed) guess
quote]indeed as Meftys report points out the % of unskilled EU staff increased, whilst the % of EU doctors & Nurses decreased
2016 EU doctor as % of total 8.9%, 2017 9.34% so wrong again. Nurses were up to by 0.84%.
mefty - English nhs or UK workforce? don't muddle the two.