[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

So mattyfez

1. Were the comments quoted above made by DD, as you seem to be suggesting, or as my reading of the sky news article suggests by Joe McHugh? If the latter, why would he contradict himself so obviously? I have only read the sky reports, so you could be correct.

2. If DD is wrong, why is Verhofstadt now proposing to amend the documentation? Is he paid by the hour?

3. If the issue is indeed unsettled (despite forceful counter arguments presented above but by someone who is normally loose with fact) what does that say about the relative importance placed by all parties re moving on the trade versus securing an answer to the Irish question?

The sky piece

He told broadcaster RTE: "My question to anybody within the British Government would be: why would there be an agreement, a set of principled agreements, in order to get to phase two, if they weren't going to be held up?

"That just sounds bizarre to me.

"This, as far as we're concerned, is a binding agreement, an agreement in principle."

The Spiegel report is in German, but here is a Google Translate translation of the start of the story, with minor tidying up from me.

The German government has called on Britain’s prime minister Theresa May to properly report on the results of the previous Brexit negotiations in her homeland. “You have to play and speak the same way as you do in London,” said Michael Roth (SPD) on the sidelines of an EU ministerial meeting in Brussels. He was “somewhat surprised” that what the British government said in Brussels was “a little different” to what was said in London.

Roth hinted that May had given the impression that Britain only had to pay the Brexit final bill to the EU if there was a deal on a trade agreement.

From an EU point of view, however, this does not correspond to the deal that May received at the end of last week in Brussels. It stipulates that the [b]agreements on the final invoice[/b] will result in a legally binding withdrawal agreement which [b]is independent of the trade agreement [/b]desired by the United Kingdom.

From the grauniad

Good to see the FT also clearing up the distorted fears re the number of bankers moving from London. All the doomsday forecast proved wrong yet again with much smaller numbers of staff actually likely to be involved. No surprises as just another wild distortion of the truth before.

tjagain - Member
It stipulates that the agreements on the final invoice will result in a legally binding withdrawal agreement which is independent of the trade agreement desired by the United Kingdom.

I couldn't find that bit in the UK/EU agreement thing here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/joint-report-on-progress-during-phase-1-of-negotiations-under-article-50-teu-on-the-uks-orderly-withdrawal-from-the-eu

Although it does say we'll do whatever it takes to keep an open border between NI and the RoI. Which pretty much means we'll do whatever it takes to stay in the single market and conform to all those pesky rules about bendy bananas(*).

[i](*) Yes, I know. Boris has a lot to answer for.[/i]

No doomsday THM, I don’t think that was ever on the table. However death by a thousand cuts still very much on the agenda.

On the contrary IGM our very own sage was vociferous on the issues. Wrong but vociferous

Did you believe it at the time? Did I?

Brexit will not lead to economic armageddon but it does look like a slow and continuing decline for the UK - and though that will be difficult to measure precisely in the general noise, rises and falls of long term economics, we’ll look round in 10 or 20 years and wonder what might have been.

Five Live have got an interesting programme on at the moment. Its with people who voted leave, asking them their opinions now.

Whats striking is the 'have cake and eat it' delusion that still seems to persist with them all. They still believe the pack of lies they were sold. They still seem to think that they can have full access to the EU markets, while not paying anything into the budget, and cherrypicking which regulations they will and will not adhere too.

Madness!

But obviously, this is all totally undeliverable. That becomes clearer by the day

So what happens when all these people who voted for a pipe-dream, realise they've been sold a pup and a pipe-dream is exactly what it is?

So what happens when all these people who voted for a pipe-dream, realise they've been sold a pup and a pipe-dream is exactly what it is?

They'll just keep believing what Guido/telegraph/mail/sun etc tell them, that it's all going swimmingly, anything bad is the fault of the EU and anything really bad about the talks, then they'll just run a front page splash about a minor celebrity doing something salacious.

Even if the trade talks have just confirmed our remoaner prophecies of doom (t(h)m)that we'd have to concede on everything

How odd you have such a faith in those whose only purpose is to make money.

igm - Member
Did you believe it at the time? Did I?

Of course not. But we were exceptions. See above.

Brexit will not lead to economic armageddon but it does look like a slow and continuing decline for the UK - and though that will be difficult to measure precisely in the general noise, rises and falls of long term economics, we’ll look round in 10 or 20 years and wonder what might have been.

There is no control unfortunately 😉

But don't forget the remoaners are arguing for Armageddon.

So what happens when all these people who voted for a pipe-dream, realise they've been sold a pup and a pipe-dream is exactly what it is?

All this reminds me of the sort of thing you'd see in an episode of "Fawlty Towers" . . . .

Basil Fawlty running from room to room assuring each different group of people that everything's ok, when in fact the hotel is on fire. The fire hoses have perished through non existent maintenance and the front door is locked.

It was always difficult, but in these days of social media and high speed internet, it is literally impossible to tell several groups of people different things at the same time, and that's what appears to be happening here.

Playing the "Fake News" card can only work to a point.

Can I ask THM and Jambalaya if they play golf?

The leavers on Five Live earlier sound positively well-informed compared to Nigel Lawson, who's presently being interviewed about leaving the EU. Talk about completely *ing delusional!!! I think he's talking about the re-establishment of Empire. What *ing planet are these people on?!!! 😯

Stop bet such a remoaner Binners, wasn't Lawson saying we'd never pay a divorce bill of >10bn a few months ago?

Bien sur, j'aime jouer au golf

(J and I first met playing tennis every week many years ago (1990s) but took some time on here to realise we knew each other! We have never played golf though. J is an expert hockey player too)

But we are on different sides of the debate here!

[img] [/img]

😀

I'm glad to see the Mash have the inside line on David Davies' memoires!

I AM David Davis MP, world-class negotiator and hero of Brexit, and these are my infallible strategies for outwitting any opponent.

At the start of negotiations it’s normal for both sides to make unrealistic demands. The EU asked for £39 billion so I demanded a five-foot prawn mayo baguette. There’s still some left in the fridge so I feel I won that round.

Negotiations are like a game of poker. You’ve got to show other people your cards, look really unhappy if you’ve got rubbish ones and shout ‘Snap!’ if you’ve got two the same colour.

Become a master of bluff. At the Brexit negotiations I told Barnier the UK was going to join a different European Union, to which he replied “Oh for ****’s sake!” and snapped a pencil. I knew then that I had him.

If you’re negotiating with foreigners you can tell them one thing then say something totally different back in England. It’s not like there’s some magical device for sending words to different countries.

NEVER let other negotiators know what you’re thinking via subtle visual or verbal cues. Put a plastic bucket on your head and keep shouting “Bollocks! Bollocks! Bollocks!”. Only this way will you win their respect.

Here’s an old trick from my Territorial SAS days: if events are not going in your favour, run off and hide in a ditch for several days sucking the fluid out of frogs to survive. That had the EU confused when we were meant to be discussing border controls!

Robert Tombs very good on complaisant remainers

I am not the only person who feels an odd sense of déjà-vu when listening to Remainers. The philosopher John Gray recently ventured a comparison with the ‘fellow travellers’ of the 1930s. Others recall George Orwell’s contrast between ‘the vast majority of the people who feel themselves to be a single nation’ with ‘the English intelligentsia’ who ‘take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow’. When I hear prominent Remainers unquestioningly supporting the demands of the EU Commission, however incoherent and excessive, I cannot but remember the opposition leader Charles James Fox happily admitting during the Napoleonic Wars that ‘The Triumph of the French government over the English does in fact afford me a degree of pleasure which is very difficult to disguise.’

[url= https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/12/brexit-suggests-were-on-the-right-side-of-history/ ]Full article[/url]

There is no control unfortunately

Very true. Maybe we should ask the unicorns to bring us either a control or some control.

Complacent? Is that the opposite of remoaning 😉

When I hear prominent Remainers unquestioningly supporting the demands of the EU Commission, however incoherent and excessive, I cannot but remember the opposition leader Charles James Fox happily admitting during the Napoleonic Wars that ‘The Triumph of the French government over the English does in fact afford me a degree of pleasure which is very difficult to disguise.’

Complacent?

No

@binners 🙂

Those UAU titles are mannny years ago TMH

Tennis I don’t believe I ever won a single game against TMH, fortunately it was mostly doubles so I could hide a bit

I am nonwhere near good enough to play golf with TMH. I’d br embarrassed to do so. Havent really played since 2000 was never consistent enough to break 90. My clubs cost about £250 and I took the game up because of all the client events / work freebees. Got to meet Henry Cooper and Brucie as well as pris like Els and VJ through golf so happy days.

Anyway what’s your point @zippy. How are the golfers/non-golfers in Sunderland relevant here ?

If you’re negotiating with foreigners you can tell them one thing then say something totally different back in England. It’s not like there’s some magical device for sending words to different countries.

yep !!
Davis really is trying his very best to get fired, what does the man have to do!?!?

all this stick for remoaners is silly

yes some predictions were overblown, but george osborne is full of shit, everyone knows it!

its NOT being unpatriotic or a doom-monger to be a realist, a few months ago the brexies in gov & on here were telling us we'd never pay even a 10bn exit bill, meanwhile us britain-hating remoaners were not convinced

(and we all knew that £100bn was never going to be the final price, nor was 10bn, but smewhere in between)

Indeed kimbers - compromises

Interesting link mefty thanks

Stick kimbers???This is a forum than dished out stick in spades to Brexshiteers in a very personal manner. To the extent that few leavers remain active. And then remoaners took over the BS mantle post-result in an attempt to out BS the Brexshiteers. Our tag team leading the charge. The extent of exaggeration was as bad if not worse as the Brexshiteers in whom they were happy to poor scorn. This continues to this day despite being 99% wrong throughout.

But don't forget the remoaners are arguing for Armageddon.

OK well looking on the bright side at least that clearly implies that you aren't applying that childish moniker to me. I think that brexit is and will be bad for the UK in economic, social, political and cultural terms, but we'll certainly survive albeit as a poorer and nastier nation. I can handle being a bit poorer without really caring that much, and I'm confident I'll be able to travel and work much as currently so I can afford to enjoy the shitfest as the lemmings charge for the cliff.

TJ - yes there will be a final agreement in Oct 18 (probably) which will contain transition and (at least) heqds if terms for a free trqde agreement. That will contain how Ireland is going to work. If there is not a free trqde deal there will be WTO plus seprate agreemetns on Ireland, fisheries and air travel. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed so in the case of no free trade there is no money and no “regulatory alignment”. Both sides expect there to be a free trade deal, you can see that in EU budgeting as they are only discussing the “black hole” from 2021 not 2019

The extent of [u]exaggeration[/u] was as bad if not worse as the Brexshiteers in whom they were happy to poor scorn. This continues to this day [u]despite being 99% wrong[/u] throughout.

ive told you a million times, dont exagerate 😆

Edit Right you've made me trawl back through this thread

Here's me being 99% wrong a few months ago, and jambs saying we'd never pay...

[url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/910 ]
I still think that it'll be around 40bn,
[/url]

If there is not a free trqde deal there will be WTO plus seprate agreemetns on Ireland, fisheries and air travel.

Now that, Jamba, is the interesting bit of what you say. It’s certainly not the impression the text of statement made tried to give - but that isn’t quite the same as saying you’re wrong.

On balance my suspicion is if a proper deal can’t be done then nor can “WTO plus seprate agreemetns on Ireland, fisheries and air travel”.

Not you kimbers !

You haven’t claimed that title 😉

Over and above the £39bn, I wonder what we’ll end up paying for access to the SM etc?

Have we done the "SHOCK" headline on the Daily Express yet?

[img] [/img]

Loving the responses on twitter:

“Bear in woods! You will not believe what happens next?!”

‘What religion is the Pope, the answer may surprise you! (He’s Catholic!)”

“Shock as dropped object moves downwards towards a larger massive body through mysterious force!”

😆

More at [url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-express-brexit-shock_uk_5a30fd5be4b07ff75afeecd7 ]Daily Express' Reveals Brexit 'SHOCK' Warning That Shocks Absolutely No One (HuffPo)[/url]

So the EU don’t want to be seen to be delaying the negotiations so they will be publishing their guidelines for a future trade deal in March 2018 so talks can begin in April.

Time to tell them we’ve chosen WTO as they are too slow. No deal, no money.

@igm you don’t need a deal on WTO, the UK and EU would each have most favoured nation status by default. If the EU don’t want a deal on fisheries we’ll keep all 100% of the catch quota. If they don’t want a deal on flights then Brits will not be going on holiday to South of France, Spain, Italy or Greece in anything like the numbers they do. Ultimately as TMH says the adults in the room will decide, hint this means the constituent Governments and NOT the EU commission.

jambs saying we'd never pay...

I don’t think I did. I said we need not pay and we should not pay. Sadly I am not PM 😐

If the EU don’t want a deal on fisheries we’ll keep all 100% of the catch quota

Is that what we're going to use that new aircraft carrier for Jammers? A new cod war? This time with fighter jets!!!* 😀

* if/when they arrive

@igm you don’t need a deal on WTO

Maybe, maybe not, opinions vary on this and I don’t have one.

Which is why I was careful about what of your rambling piece I quoted and how I responded to it.

I think my point stands (even if you missed it).

PS the just keep our quota idea won’t work. Most of our catch we sell. Most of what we eat we buy. Blinking trade, keeps getting in the way of blind nationalism.

Gov't defeat in HOC. 😀

[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other ]GAME ON!![/url]. 🙂

[img] [/img]

😆

perditus - Member
Gov't defeat in HOC.

P/s: So many British Governments, so many PMs, so many leaders, the country is absolutely divided ... turn it around it will be the same. 😛

If they don’t want a deal on flights then...

...there will be no flights across European air space.

Seems a tad unlikely.

Is that good?

It's probably worth another 6 months of arguing on here.

Is that good?

Is that good?

Not if you are called theresa.

Dont worry it is all part of the plan . The grown ups know what they are doing .

I suspect it means we’ll have to put March 2019 in as the deadline to conclude negotiators, then plead with the eu to let us stay in current terms until HOP can debate what’s just been agreed.

Sounds fun.

Symbolic defeat, possibly an important symbol I don’t know.

A take it or leave it, ie defeat means WTO vote is meangingful.

Perhaps the Govt should schedule the vote for June 23, 2018. That way if the deal is defeated business has 9 months to prepare for WTO and Govt has time to negotiate flighst etc. Also that gives the EU a deadline to agree a deal with us. Personally I think the EU vote date of Oct 2018 is too fine to prepare for WTO.

Meanwhile the French in particular are worried about fiscal and social dumping. If 12.5% corporate tax rates are good enough for Ireland (well except where privately negotiated rates of 0.8% are better) then Indon’t see why they aren’t good enough for us,

This is France’s problem Edukator and Chris (for non French speakers it shows a company paying €150 to an employee results in €110 in taxes going to the State). Also bankers who go to France are almost advertising the fact that they are low level employees far below the €1m / 66% threshold.

[img] [/img]

I think the point here isn’t really about Brexit at all. It’s about denying a load of right wing nut jobs the right to use medieval powers to bypass parliament, which is what they actually had in mind with ‘Taking Back Control’

Nice to see some Tory’s put the concept of democracy before party interests in the face of all this ‘Enemies of the People’ anti-democratic bullying, and nasty, small-minded, backward-looking nationalism

Hopefully this sends a sign to the nutters that they can’t just ignore the opinions of 48% of the electorate. May had this coming!

that article is nothing new , and nothing to do with corporate tax ;

I agree with binners.

I wonder what we’ll end up paying for access to the SM etc?

The same as Japan, Canada, South Korea and the other 60 odd free trade countries do. ZERO.

Now I have absoluteoy no doubt the EU will try and extract something as they have a budget black hole to fill.

This is all part of why I said just go WTO and let the EU negotiate sensibly as and when they are ready, ideally after a few years of us collecting £5-10bn pa in tariffs. Lets say 5 years so we are £60bn - £89bn better off. Pays for a lot that.

We need tariff free deals with US, South Korea and Japan for cars in order to take away the EU’s price advantage. That plus some new laws and taxes massively favouring electric and hybrid.

I know Chris, I wasn’t talking about corporate tax specifically more a general point that France’s problems are primarily domesticaly self inflicted. Yours Corporation tax is sky high too although Macron is reducing it as well as reversing most of the wealth taxes.

This is all part of why I said just go WTO and let the EU negotiate sensibly as and when they are ready, ideally after a few years of us collecting £5-10bn pa in tariffs.

Why do you think they'd just cough up the tariffs, rather than simply shop elsewhere?

To pay 30% on income you'd have to be comfortably off. It would be better to tax companbies on profits but that is difficult as the bigger ones pay in countires with fiscal dumping. One of the EU reforms I'd like to see as exposed in my very first posts on this thread. Don't destroy the eu, make it fairer which is best doen from within.

On the plus side the net salery goes a long way when there's no need for private health insurance, your kids get a free education (with a grant if you earn little enough), transport is cheap... . I see more poverty in Britain where taxes on both saleries and corporate taxes are low, go figure, Jamba... . And where do you plan to retire again? France or Portugal you said mot long ago. The countires you spend all your time on this thread slagging off are where you'd most like to live.

us collecting £5-10bn pa in tariffs

You mean us paying, while the government collects...

tariff free deals with US, South Korea and Japan for cars

“Japanese” cars made here.
US cars not very good (don’t get me started on fragile Teslas)
Korean? Maybe

We need tariff free deals with US, South Korea and Japan for cars in order to take away the EU’s price advantage.

Nobody can really be so far removed from reality, can they?

The same as Japan, Canada, South Korea and the other 60 odd free trade countries do. ZERO.

Norway on the other hand pay more than we do per capita. With less control.

Does it come down to how much access for services (a significant export for us) we want?

Nobody can really be so far removed from reality, can they?

I think if the whole Brexit fiasco has shown us anything, it's that about 37% of the population were/are completely removed from reality. Or as they preferred to call it, Project Fear.

Being in the EU was the main reason we had so much Japanese investment for manufacturing cars here.

We were even labelled as being a “Japanese aircraft carrier”.

It's a great result for 2 reasons

Parliamentary sovereignty upheld, which is what brexiters want, take back control and all that.

Possibly the beginning of the end for Brexit.

And it’s only recently that you can get rhd American cars although as part of the Uk-Us trade deal we can probably harmonise with them an change to driving on the other side.

Just another misjudgement by May and her team of crack brexiter crackpots !

Extra humiliating for May (& the UK) as she goes to Brussels tomorrow looking just as divided & weak as ever.

Still will of the people and all that jazz

Haha Farage has tweeted that 'his contempt for career politicians knows no bounds'.

Gobshite should be rejoicing - OUR great parliament has spoken.

@jamba.
Any response to my question regarding you stating you'd likely retire to an EU country?

Is there a list of how the MPs voted?

[img] [/img]

Chuckling at the express quoting the Rand corp study
[img] [/img]

How many fantasy tarrifs do we have to collect under WTO to cancel out the loss to GDP ,again?

So what do we reckon on the swivel-eyed tabloids front pages tomorrow

Im guessing splash of 12 Tory rebels labeled '[b]The Dirty Dozen[/b]' stab true patriots in the back in attempt to stop Brexit !
Or some such hate filled brexiganda

Haha Farage has tweeted that 'his contempt for career politicians knows no bounds'.

Does that mean he won't be taking his huge MEP pension for not doing his job as an MEP? 😳

So MPs vote on deal or no deal that they were getting anyway.... and the news is?

.... that Theresa doesn't have an automatic majority any longer?

And FFS THM, in the light of the last week's 'we have a deal' 'we don't have a deal' 'we might have an agreement in principle but I'm not guaranteeing it, I might change my mind when back in the UK' by this shambles of a government, your promises on getting a 'vote on deal or no deal that they were getting anyway' are worthless.

If they were [u]guaranteeing[/u] that vote why couldn't the government accept the amendment without the need to debate and vote on it.

Once again, quack quack

🙂

When will May give up? She looks tortured. She has zero chance of keeping everyone on side. The news is worse each day. Davies and co are making huge enemies in the EU and squandering goodwill

Jamba - how can you believe so many things ill happen that have been categorically rules out?

The EU have made it clear its meet the 3 main points, agree to pay up then we can talk about a trade deal. No pay. NO trade deal. Pay - then we can start talks on a trde deal

WTO we cannot have "most favoured nation status. Ruled out by significant players in WTO as well as the EU

Its alice in wonderland again

teamhurtmore - Member
So MPs vote on deal or no deal that they were getting anyway ...and the news is?

And the new is probably; Theresa can't persuade her party MPs to toe her line, Tory MPs elect to vote for a deal,they were getting anyway, Tory infighting, one or some of those probs 😉

[quote=teamhurtmore ]So MPs vote on deal or no deal that they were getting anyway.... and the news is?

Like you I am utterly clueless as to why they are calling it a defeat, or why the govt opposed this, seeing as nothing has changed and its not news.

Is there a list of how the MPs voted?

Hopefully one will emerge but I've not seen one.

Labour MPs must have actually voted on something for a change, that is a new precident.

I'd be very interested to see how the ten DUP voted.

Why the FFS ToJ?

We have progress on a deal. Nothing is legally blinding yet. The gov and the oppo are both torn asunder. The HoC gets a vote it knew is was having. We move on to trade next year. Nothing has changed - other than the politicians and those who report their behaviour look a little bit sillier. Oh, we do know that the EU is also desperate to avoid a HB.

May is made of surprisingly strong stuff. She isnt going to give up in a hurry. She wants to see this through so that she can flicks the vs at her many, many detractors