[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

no deal means WTO (a massive killer for them economically, truely catestrophic)

Less than 15% of Ireland's exports are to the UK.

Yes, it will be the worst hit of all the rEU countries if no deal can be reached.

More than 40% of the UK's exports are to the rEU.

Then add all the countries that we currently have trade deals with…

Ireland exported €101.8bn in services in 2014 and €18bn
(18%) of these exports went to the United Kingdom.
Imports of services amounted to €109.4bn in 2014 and
€11.4bn (10%) of these imports were from the UK.
In 2015 Ireland exported €112.4bn of goods and
€15.6bn (13.9%) of these goods went to the UK. The
top 5 categories of goods exported to the UK in 2015
were: Meat & meat preparations (€1.9bn), Medical &
pharmaceutical products (€1.5bn), Organic chemicals
(€1.0bn), Essential oils, perfume materials; toilet &
cleansing preps (€0.8bn) and Dairy products & birds’
eggs (€0.8bn).
Imports of goods amounted to €70.1bn in 2015 and
€18bn (25.7%) of these imported goods arrived from the
UK. The top 5 categories of goods imported from the UK
in 2015 were: Petroleum, petroleum products & related
materials (€1.9bn), Gas, natural & manufactured (€1.1bn),
Miscellaneous manufactured articles n.e.s. (€1.1bn),
Essential oils, perfume materials; toilet & cleansing preps
(€0.8bn) and All other commodities and transactions
(€0.7bn).

Mike - I took no notice of 'project fear' nor the emblazoned NHS bus but I do recollect hazily the UK joining the EEC as it was then called. It seemed a brilliant idea and did work well but it eventually became something it was not supposed to be. This is why so many voted for Brexit.

@cg Perfect summary of why my parents, lifelong Labour voters and who voted Yes 40 years ago voted Leave last year. Common Market to European [b]Union[/b].

I’m going to release a joint statement on behalf of myself, Jammers and Hurty in the morning towards the EU, clearly stating our agreed position, and principles on this thread, going forward

I won’t bother running it pastthem. I’m sure it’ll all be fine 🙂

I'm just going to leave this here.

If you're in favour of leaving, this is a small example of soundbites from people who agree with you.

https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1966

Perfect summary of why my parents, lifelong Labour voters and who voted Yes 40 years ago voted Leave last year. Common Market to European [b]Union[/b].

Yeah, unions are bad and evil, it's shit when people work together. What next, dogs and cats living together?

You do realise, don't you, that our own MEPs have been a driving force in shaping the EU for years? You know how many laws we've voted on in the EU that haven't gone our way? None, zero, zip, nada, hasn't happened.

And you want to walk away and leave them to their own devices. If the EU is as corrupt / dangerous / undemocratic / whatever as the leavers claim it is, that very point alone should scare you shitless. This big scary monster of an organisation right on our doorstep, and you want *less* control over it? Anyone who genuinely thinks that must be absolutely barking. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer; you can't "take back control" by actually relinquishing control.

So Oooh, do we think we can tell?

Heaven from hell?

Blue skies from rain?

teamhurtmore -
Thanks. I’ll move on to outright lies next week. Do try to fit in

jambalaya
@cg Perfect summary of why my parents, lifelong Labour voters and who voted Yes 40 years ago voted Leave last year.

If you're in favour of leaving, this is a small example of soundbites from people who agree with you.

Charming enough for you THM.

Less than 15% of Ireland's exports are to the UK.

What proportion go through it?

How very true. Given that none of the doomsday predictions have occurred, the wise have time to reveal themselves

Actually all the doomsday predictions seem to be coming true to anyone with more than one eye/

The fall off in EU nurses - predicted and happened. The impossibility of having your cake and eating it - now evident to all. etc etc

Not sure what social circles a lot of folks spin in on STW, mine varies from forklift truck drivers to a few multi millionaires.

At the more hands on end of the scale I have had some very depressing conversations in as much that i did not understand how little a lot of people understand about very basic economics. I jave mentioned before my mate Bob (rampant Brexiteer) moaning about the cost of diesel and as i pointed out the fall in the £ hasnt helped - his response was what the **** has that got to do with the cost of diesel... there are lots of Bob's.

[quote=ninfan ]

It's not true. It doesn't take into account the £100m rebate we get, so the actual figure is around £250m. And that neatly ignores all the money that comes back again.

Sorry, digging back into this one, I can't resist.

It's a lie. Report me for that if you want, but I think you'll find I know which side of the line to tread on that particular issue and I'm simply making a factual statement - people are free to deduce what they like about your character from that. No, it's not even technically true, because we never did send £350m a week, which is the claim you made, not even technically.

The fall off in EU nurses - predicted and happened. The impossibility of having your cake and eating it - now evident to all. etc etc

The pound tanking, tick. The only reason it didn't tank harder was because Mark Carney started printing money.

Corporations leaving for overseas, tick.

What's happening with the EMA? Oh, wait. Euratom, anyone?

[i]And we haven't ****ing left yet[/i] you bloody madman. These were predictions. Warnings of what could happen. PROJECT FEAR!!1! But it's ok, we can sell jam.

Stranger things have happened at sea.

Cats and dogs do enjoy play together as it turns out.

Best buddies:[img] [/img]

I'm just going to leave this here.

If you're in favour of leaving, this is a small example of soundbites from people who agree with you.

https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1966

So, you’re saying that it’s a lie, or it isn’t a lie?

Thanks Aracer, I missed that.

It's a lie. I'm sorry if it wasn't clear when I said "it's not true," I kind of hoped that these two phrases were broadly synonymous but evidently not.

If I bought something in a sale that was £150 reduced from £350, then when a mate asked "that's cool, how much was it?" and I replied "£350," I'd be lying. Agreed?

We do not, and never have, sent £350m/week to the EU. It's simply not true. It's a lie. Trousers combusting, Pinocchio with a hard-on.

And Leave has admitted that without that lie they'd probably have lost the referendum.

Makes you think. Or at least, it bloody well should do.

The official UK governments are [url= https://www.timloughton.com/sites/www.timloughton.com/files/2017-09/Additional_Data_Paper_-_Northern_Ireland_Trade_Data_and_Statistics__2_.pdf ]here [/url]

NI sales to with rest of UK 4 x that of sales with Ireland, quoting these figures is often misleading because most economies trade most with themselves (66% of total in case of NI), so you are only looking at 34% of which the rest of the UK accounts for more than half.

it's not even technically true, because we never did send £350m a week, which is the claim you made, not even technically.

Then why is it called "Total Debits" in the UK official accounts 😆

[img] [/img]

Credits/Debits
In/Out

Not too hard is it?

What proportion go through it?

A very good point. Most of its road haulage carried exports I suspect.
A big shift to sea haulage will be required … slow…

Ireland would be the worst hit of the rEU counties in the result of no deal, as I said.

What proportion of our nonEU trade goes through the EU?
I suppose that will result in shifting transportation patterns as well.

I just can't picture Jamba's idea of how the UK falling back to WTO rules (negotiated when we are at our most desperate) will be catastrophic for Ireland, but his preferred course of action for [s]us[/s] the UK.

Not too hard is it?

Net/Gross.

Not too hard, is it?

been out for a night ride

check news-

Tory incompetence still making the UK look like a global laughing stock over brexishambles

time for bed

Not too hard is it?

Net/Gross.

The official government statistics didn't list it that way though did they? They officially confirmed it as a credit/debit transaction.

you are upset because the leave campaign used the officially published transactions

its hilarious

And Leave have admitted that without that lie they'd probably have lost the referendum.

And yet you are doing the same, what they actually said was they deliberately used a controversial number because they knew that it would be attacked by the Remain side and that would keep the coverage on an area that was a strength for them. If they had put £200 million on the side of the bus, I can't imagine there are many people who would have said only £200 million, oh well in that case I will vote remain. However it would have significantly effected the coverage. That is why it was important to them.

Not too hard is it?

That being the case presumably you'd have absolutely no issue with people claiming that migration isn't an issue because [url= https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics ]folk are leaving the U.K. at a rate of 342,000 a year?[/url]

As regards whether I'm still in favour, I look at the Tories and think God help us all

When you voted for a referendum called by a Conservative government, who did you think would be "in charge" of the UK leaving the EU?

what they actually said was they deliberately [s]used a controversial number[/s] [b]lied[/b] because they knew that it would be attacked by the Remain side and that would keep the coverage on an area that was a strength for them.

FTFY.

That's aside from the fact that Farage admitted on national TV [i]the day after the referendum[/i] that giving it to the NHS instead was a lie.

That is why it was important to them.

Agreed. Bullshit sticks harder when the heat of attention is directed at it.
How is it countered effectively then? I don't have a ready answer…

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer;

As I said before - there is no them and us. They ARE us.

Cougar, that Byline piece is depressing and concerning.
No doubt some mean every word they have written.
I wonder how many of the keyboard warriors - particularly those who use pseudonyms - really mean what they have written or are just being thick ignorant ****s because they think it makes them look big and important.
Most would be incapable of any rational discussion.
Most are only empowered behind a keyboard or when they're being aggressive as part of a group; one to one they just grunt and truck off because they are inadequate.
Post, delete, think it's forgotten; no it isn't and thanks to Byline for pulling this together.
Enough to make me ashamed of my country.

When you voted for a referendum called by a Conservative government, who did you think would be "in charge" of the UK leaving the EU?

Maybe she just assumed, as I'm sure many did, that they wouldn't make a monumental pig's ear of it.

And yet you are doing the same, what they actually said was they deliberately used a controversial number because they knew that it would be attacked by the Remain side and that would keep the coverage on an area that was a strength for them. If they had put £200 million on the side of the bus, I can't imagine there are many people who would have said only £200 million, oh well in that case I will vote remain. However it would have significantly effected the coverage. That is why it was important to them.

Cost benefit analysis… if you only look at the costs of a deal, you'll end up worse off trying to save money.

Cougar, that Byline piece is depressing and concerning.
No doubt some mean every word they have written.
I wonder how many of the keyboard warriors

I don't doubt for a moment that they're not actually representative of most Leave voters. They're a vocal, extreme fringe. But still. It's telling who you share a bed with, I reckon you'd struggle to compile a 58-page dossier of Remain death threats.

GrahamS - don't let the facts get in the way.
http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

[quote=ninfan ]Then why is it called "Total Debits" in the UK official accounts

Because accounting.

In the same way that a company account sheet will include movements of money which aren't real.

You still haven't worked out that I'm careful with my wording (though in this case I'm simply repeating the wording you used). A debit line on an account sheet doesn't imply any actual "sending" of money.

Credits/Debits
In/Out
Not too hard is it?

Apparently it is.

I think you are missing my point frank (and I provided a link too).

That being the case presumably you'd have absolutely no issue with people claiming that migration isn't an issue because folk are leaving the U.K. at a rate of 342,000 a year?

No, I confirm 100% that I would have absolutely no problem at all with you making that claim.

Because accounting.

In that case you appear to accept that in a narrow accounting sense it was a legitimate use of the figure (even if it was potentially misleading without mentioning the additional factors)

A debit line on an account sheet doesn't imply any actual "sending" of money

If you transfer £100 to my account tonight you haven't actually "sent" me anything, however some notional credits and debits will be applied to our accounts electronically, because, well, you know, accounting.

in normal parlance however...

I don't believe you ninfan.

If the Remain campaign put that on the side of a bus then you wouldn't have challenged it?
If they gave speeches in front of big posters with that figure emblazoned on to it.
You [i]wouldn't[/i] have said "Hang on that's not the net figure? That's very misleading"? Really?

Because I think you'd have been up in arms about #fakenews and snowflakes

No, ninfan it was a lie, at no time and in no way have we ever sent £350m a week to the EU - I'm guessing you don't understand accounting, because those accounts aren't saying what you seem to think they are.

The Leave campaign could have put what those accounts actually say on the side of the bus, but if you're typical of Leave voters, then it wouldn't have helped because none of them would have understood it.

edit to your edit: nice to see you doing semantics already - always a good sign that you've lost the argument, you know you've lost the argument and you're attempting to shift ground in your personal swamp.

How is it countered effectively then? I don't have a ready answer…

Everyone uses it, the "I don't believe in experts" is an equivalent example for the Remain side, it completely ignores the context of what was said. I think the one of the problems is that political journalists thrive on the controversial stuff and as TV News has moved to head to head with "XXX Correspondent" that the "gossip" side is more important. John Cole used to have file a short report.

why are you debating with him?
he knows he is just puling your chains and you are letting him

"people in this country have had enough of experts"

Much more telling in its original form.

No, ninfan it was a lie, at no time and in no way have we ever sent £350m a week to the EU

😆

How much does your employer pay you for a weeks work?

Tell me, could you put a figure to it, or would you tell me that "he doesnt pay me weekly, he pays me monthly"

Similarly, aggregating 52 weekly payments into 12 equal monthly payments wouldn't be a lie, would it?

Brilliant

Now, when you tell me that figure - would you tell me the Gross (before deductions) figure or the net one?

If you gave me the gross figure, would I be able to call you a liar because your employer never actually "sent" you that amount, he actually sent you a different, lower, amount due to tax, deductions, pension etc.

I reckon that most people wouldn't call that a lie

what say you?

in normal parlance however...

In normal parlance if you hand over a tenner for a cup of tea and they give you eight quid change then telling people the tea cost ten quid would be lying.

did you hand over a tenner, or hand over two quid?

[quote=ninfan ]How much does your employer pay you for a weeks work?

My employer [b]sends[/b] me the net. For somebody so hot on semantics you really do seem to struggle with this one - never in my life has my employer, my bank, my building society, companies I own shares in [b]sent[/b] me the gross amount.

Tell me, could you put a figure to it, or would you tell me that "he doesnt pay me weekly, he pays me monthly"

No, that's the sort of games you play - don't assume anybody else has the same standards as you, that's kind of insulting.

did you hand over a tenner, or hand over two quid?

In normal parlance if you hand over a tenner for a cup of tea...

In normal parlance if you hand over a tenner for a cup of tea..

Perfect, so, as we've now all agreed, we hand over 350 million a week, and get 100 million a week back

we send them 350 million, they send us 100 million

or thereabouts

as an aggregate figure of course, because we don't [b]actually[/b] do it every week, but everyone understands that

perfect

Glad we're all agreed

[quote=ninfan ]we send them 350 million, they send us 100 million

Is a lie. You're quite good at this, been practicing?

Much more telling in its original form.

Which isn't complete, you can watch the interview [url=

It is a misrepresentation, you can dance around and say he said it, but it is a similar tactic. The Leave campaign didn't spend alot of time arguing about the injustice, they just got on with their message.

I thought we sent them about £200mill per a week, and they sent us about £70mill per a week, plus we make billions more for ourselves than we would otherwise do, please we get to cut down on spending on our civil service. Sweet deal.

[quote=mefty ]The Leave campaign didn't spend alot of time arguing about the injustice, they just got on with their [s]message.[/s] lies

Is a lie. You're quite good at this, been practicing?

Quite. To use your own analogy; I don't get paid my gross salary and then hand back my tax and NI.

The Leave campaign didn't spend alot of time arguing about the injustice, they just got on with their message.

To help the accounting process I will sell the border 100 Unicorns and and 500kg of pixie dust for 1bn quid, keep the 0.25bn quid change, buy a bus, write the same lie 50000 times and claim it really costs 10bn.
Clear now?

Bullshit sticks. As I said, I have no idea how to counteract that

Message discipline - you've learnt one lesson.

Net contributions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40860657
See PESA table C1 but note this is not reflective of [b]all[/b] inward funding received from EU so true net figure is smaller than that stated.
It's all about the 4 Fs
First
Find the
Fuggin
Facts

I don't get paid my gross salary and then hand back my tax and NI.

But, If someone asked you how much you got paid annually... would you answer with Gross or Net figures?

This stage of the negotiations was meant to be the easy part wasn't it?

Imagine when trade talks begin!

We seriously need a second referendum.

Both sides can now truly see what Brexit means. The reality, not the BS spouted on BOTH sides during the first referendum. This, this is Brexit.

Importantly it should also provoke the millions that didn't vote to get off their butts and make their views felt.

There is so much needs addressing in this country and Brexit is just sucking time, money and attention away from our real problems.

If it wasn't so badly damaging it would be "sanatorium funny."

We seriously need a second referendum.

If you lose that, how long before you start demanding a third referendum?

Bullshit sticks. As I said, I have no idea how to counteract that

There will be a point where the negotiation team needs to present their best efforts to the government, people and parliament - all bets are off a that point but it's not hard to see a situation where a deeply unpopular solution that satisfies nobody needs some sort of legitimacy and consent to pass.

There is so much needs addressing in this country and Brexit is just sucking time, money and attention away from our real problems.

[quote=ninfan ]But, If someone asked you how much you got paid annually... would you answer with Gross or Net figures?

If only you hadn't written "the UK sends £350 million a week to the EU" then you might really be onto a winner with this argument. Only for those people who get paid by the government that is, obviously, and only then if you ignore the other huge flaws in that analogy. But then I know how you like to be pedantic with wording, so lets run with your analogy using the correct wording - if somebody asked you how much money your employer sends to your bank account which figure would [b]you[/b] give?

Or to put it another way and avoid the analogies, if I said that "the Bongo Bongo government sends 10 unicorns a week to the Lilliput government" how many unicorns would [b]you [/b]assume were actually transferred from Bongo Bongo to Lilliput? (BTW I'll take an avoidance of that question as an admission that the original statement is a lie, good luck).

ninfan - Member
We seriously need a second referendum.
If you lose that, how long before you start demanding a third referendum?

I wouldn't.

If after "all this" we still vote out then I would have to seriously question my own judgment of what is actually good for the people of this country.

Honest answer.

Cougs, I appreciate that you have long argued that we should not expect any more from you just because you are a mod, but did you have to prove this by descending so far to this level?

Cougar - Moderator
The pound tanking, tick. The only reason it didn't tank harder was because Mark Carney started printing money.

A perfect example of remoaner tactics. Take something that a thicko might not understand. Abuse it. Then post it as an argument (sic) to make them afraid. Very afraid.....

The pound fell then rallied and has been stronger recently despite the current challenges. But not for the reasons you [s]lied about[/s] suggest. Your “the only reason” claim is wrong on many counts. Not least in the timing of QE but also it’s effect.

Printing money ie increasing its supply, weakens a currency. So exactly the opposite of your claim. But never mind. You now have a chance to demonstrate what a wise man would do.
Over to you....

But classic remoaner tactic in the meantime. Make something up that a thicko might fall for. Exagerate it. Get it totally wrong. Demonstrate why remoaner tactics are exactly the same as Brexshiteers ie avoid the truth.

Then get rude...

And we haven't ****ing left yet you bloody madman.

QED.

But well done at taking “fitting in” to an extreme level and again demonstrating why we should not expect a mod to set an example. Bravo!

Why do people also fall for the £350m tactic that Bojo and ninfan have both recently fallen back on? Its neither true from an accounting nor a cash flow perspective. It is a lie. Nothing more, nothing less. Just ignore it. Don’t give it the oxygen it requires otherwise you allow their tactic to succeed.

Alternatively copy their tactic and post your own falsehoods. Your choice

THM get a grip, if you think that is rude then take a look at your condescending posts,over and over again.

At the moment the facts as they stand are that the government can't agree, they are being stopped by their bribed friends. Time is running out and unless the UK can find a way to speed up negotiations it's going to be bad.

If you can't accept that there is a distinct possibility that the final deal could be worse than remaining with no rebate or the affront to democracy that ignoring an advisory referendum would cause then you need to look at the mood of people.

Theresa "Mr Scott,we don't appear to have achieved escape velocity!"
Boris "Aye Captain,I think we're going to need a bigger bribe!"

My grip is fine mike. But thanks for the concern.

I have long argued that time is running out and that most of the remoaner BS and the Eu tactics make a bad outcome more likely.

I am firmly based in reality. For those of us in the UK that have to deal with the real impacts that is important.

Nice affront to democracy example to add to the list. Thank you ^ 2

I have long argued that time is running out and that most of the remoaner BS and the Eu tactics make a bad outcome more likely.

Anyone can express concern. It’s abusing the truth that I object to.

The whole debate is now dominated by two sides trying to out BS each other. And right now the remoaners are winning. An extraordinary turn around as I did not think it would be possible to out BS a Brexshiteer. But every day is a learning day - for those who are wise enough to make it so 😉 as cougs would say

Fortunately in the middle of this there are some grown ups making slow progress.

Well for a learning day if you want to help improve the class and civility of the debate how about you try and drop the remoaner/brexshiter/grown ups comments. It adds nothing to the debate.
At this point the UK is stuck with the fact that their was not adequate preparation on the NI border issue. The UK agreed to sort that out first so the problems lie on the UK side at the moment.

Facts would be nice, ideally provided by Cameron two years ago and we wouldnt now be in this mess.

[url= http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/12/04/ireland-chaos-brexit-will-either-break-may-now-or-it-ll-brea ]Ian Dunt sums things up v well[/url]

It’s abusing the truth that I object to.

And yet you do it so regularly.

THM - let’s assume your right on the BS war. And I have some sympathy with that view.
As someone noted earlier, the thing we learned from the referendum, the core learning, was that BS works.
If the referendum has no other lasting legacy, then we will still have a society based more on BS than anything else.
As Mefty said - lesson one.

So if BS is the way forward and if you say it often enough people will believe its true then....

Yorkshire has been an independent country for several years and enjoys its status as the most successful country of the former U.K.

The BS is part of a 2 pronged attack -
First say something that you want that diverts from the real issues
Then waste pages of discussion and time debating the finer details and abstract meanings, getting really keen on exact details while refusing to discuss the bigger picture issues, be that 350 million or the definition of austerity.

Hmmm. Another musing.

One cannot provide an affront to democracy. Not possible.
Democracy is a concept and lacks the capacity to be affronted.

What we really mean is an affront to an individual or group caused by something counter to their view of democracy.

Semantics you may say. Yes, but...

If different individuals view democracy differently then something can be both an affront and not an affront at the same time.

I think we need to be very careful suggesting unilaterally that something is an affront to democracy.