[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I know people in Europe are a bit concerned about the UK not participating in future EU science e.g. Horizon2020. Yes, in simplistic terms it means more money for them but they are actually farsighted and thoughtful enough to care more about the quality of the research (and losing a strong UK collaborator would weaken their bid after all, it's not pure altruism on their part). But there's nothing really anyone can do about it except look around for alternative partners and/or poach UK-based scientists, both of which are of course ongoing. And UK-based ERC grant holders are also casting around for alternative homes of course.

So what is it that we have that the EU needs?

Access to funding, European governments and companies raise huge amounts of funding through London, whilst economists will argue money is fungible it is never quite as simple as that and would involve a leap into the dark for them.

But there's nothing really anyone can do about it

Considering Israel participates in Horizon 2020, there really is.

I wont be saying my gym membership for 2 years when i cancel without being allowed to use it and its daft of the EU to think anyone will accept this

currently raise but they will happily be shifting the centre of European finance away from London

Whatever one wishes to claim its obvious that in 10 years, 20 years and 50 years that they wont still be raising the sums they do today from London.

Oh I know it's quite possible in theory for the UK to participate in H2020, but there's no way of knowing whether that is actually going to happen, and no meaningful way for EU scientists on the ground to affect that decision. Precious little influence for UK scientists either, of course a bit of lobbying but no-one yet knows what the landscape will look like.

Exactly mefty. Have been making that point at work all week. The biggest losers from the fragmentation of wholesale markets are EU corporates and households.

It’s time for the UK to play very hard ball now. May needs to grow a pair and lead on this. We need to move this forward and there is only one way to get the EU to negotiate properly. You look then in the eye and make it very clear. We WILL walk away. Period. So you either negotiate or you don’t.

Time for some guts. Do we have them?

ROFL

"They need us more than we need them"

I didn't think there was anyone left (outside the swivel-eyed loons) who still dared to say that.

Come to think of it, I'm still not sure there is.

Quitlings be talkin’ tough. 😀

Airbus need Rolls-Royce engines, not insignificant.

Sadly a significant potential for GE to gain more market. Obviously the too have a presence with compressor manufacturing in the uk.

Personally I am worried we rely so much on Siemens and Alstom for our trains with no locally viable option. I guess local subsidiaries serving the local market if it is big enough...

We both need each other. BUT if the EU are going to do what they always do, you need a new approach

Nothing more on Florence. If you don’t think that is enough oK, we end the negotiations now

We don’t just sit there with a tub of KY jelly waiting to be rogered

May needs to grow a pair and lead on this.

Well, now that's sorted we can all relax.

Not really because it won’t happen. We are emasculated and frozen. The eu are in control at the moment. And remoaners seem to delight in the fact.

I'm not delighted.

It's just we told you it would be a clusterf@@k. And it is. And will continue to be so.

Delighted, or furious?

Both the main parties voting to trigger A50, with one pretending to have a plan, and the other washing their hands of the need for a plan, still makes me furious. That it is leading us towards an inevitable short term choice between "no deal resulting in chaos and damage" or "something akin to Norway that will never wash politically back home", as has been clear from the start, can make no one delighted, except perhaps those who don't understand how the WTO or international trade in general works, or how the big nonEU countries and trading blocks will be ready to turn all the screws once we are exposed. Those warning about all this shit for years, can take no delight in any of this, unless they're very odd indeed. It's an awful situation, that isn"t about to become glorious and positive thanks to a fluffy speech from someone who loves quoting Churchill.

R O A R

And remoaners seem to delight in the fact.

Not me. I've said before, I hope I'm wrong. I hope we end up with a social cou try where government improves the environment and invests in innovation and has an open relationship with Europe, without trade barriers and with freedom of movement but without any of the negatives of the EU.

But I can't see that happening.

We don’t just sit there with a tub of KY jelly waiting to be rogered

A tub of KY and also a good supply of tinned food waiting for the German car-makers to crack while the supermarket delivery trucks are parked up outside Calais.

THM - you know as well as I do that the June 23rd 2016 leave vote, was a vote to be done over. Anyone who thought otherwise needs their head examining.

And there is no way that given the behaviour of the Brexies since then, the country will ever be united enough to stand up to the EU as you ask. The press, the politicians, Brexies generally have been a disgrace and an embarrassment. That won’t change fast enough to get a sensible Brexit. Sorry and all.

Don’t understand first para, sorry

Remoaners have overtaken Brexshiteers in BS since the vote and the stupidity of weakening the UKs position. They are the ones who have become the more embarrassing

Still in denial and making a bad situation a lot worse

THM - no denial, just realism.
We won, you lost, get over it is not a way to bring people together. Nor is branding the judiciary as enemies of the people.
The attitude of Brexies since the vote has made our country more divided by the day.
If you recall I have at least twice on this thread tried to explore what a successful Brexit might look like. The Brexies has nothing to offer.
Nationally it was up to the Brexies to start a positive debate on what a good Brexit that would bring the country together might be - they failed spectacularly.
Instead they tried to coerce people into compliance - many folk don’t take too well to that.
Hence through their actions the Brexies have ensured a bad Brexit - but we can always hope that something turns up I suppose.

As for the first paragraph - did anyone think the EU was not going to try to make sure the deal we get outside the club was substantially worse than the one we had inside the club? Really? That’s not being nasty, it’s just without that, why have a club? And I know you know that, you’ve said so (or at least that is what I’ve understood you to say) on a number of occasions.

Now if you can tell me what I’m denying, I may start to take your accusation seriously.

Resistance is noble. When you are sure of what's right and good be faithful to your values and resist those that would destroy the what you hold dear.

So I'm not in denial and I'll do what I can to sabotage the Brexit process. Which might make a bad situation temporarily worse but if successful, will make Britain a better place.

You go on strike knowing that there are risks but that if you win then you'll be better off long term.

You take on your stroppy kids head to head because if you back down they'll be bigger little horrors than if you resist.

When a government leads you down a path you don't want to go you dig your heels. They won't be around forever and if you provide enough resistance they won't have dragged you far and it'll be an easy walk back the the path you wish to follow.

Fight the good fight... .

The brexxies left this thread a long time ago for good reason.

e. The Brexies has nothing to offer.
Nationally it was up to the Brexies to start a positive debate on what a good Brexit that would bring the country together might be - they failed spectacularly.

You conveniently forget their did win, we liost ecause we failed to present a positive case for remaining. Easy to forget, eh?

Because they had nothing to offer?

Go on, where in what I said am I being unfair to the disgraceful Brexies?

They had the opportunity to try and bring the country together - they decided not to take it.

The divided country will lead to a bad Brexit and it is their doing.

I have no responsibility for Brexit of any type, though I am of course trying to help ensure this country doesn’t do any worse than it has to.

I seem to recall asking the Brexies months ago what they we doing and was met with silence. They come across as a bunch of wreckers with no positive ideas.

The eu are in control at the moment. And remoaners seem to delight in the fact.

I am delighted. See below nail - on head.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-i-learnt-to-loathe-england

Scotland should be let in if it wants, and Northern Ireland too. But England is out and must be kept out—at least until it has resolved its deep internal problems. Call it nation building.

The division WILL lead to a bad Brexshit. You got that right

The offer is a bespoke deal which if successful would be only a mild lose. But the remoaners want to make that more difficult than it needs to be. The looney wing - even if not domiciled here - even want to create deliberate economic damage. Says it all.

I seem to recall asking the Brexies months ago what they we doing and was met

As before they left this thread for good reason. There is no point in responding the the greater lies bring (ab)used by the remoaners here. It became a contest to see who could lie the most outrageously

You conveniently forget their did win, we liost ecause we failed to present a positive case for remaining. Easy to forget, eh?

Nope. I remember well. The case for Brexit was negative. Easy to win a vote with negative politics - harder to build anything afterwards.

The brexxies left this thread a long time ago for good reason.

And the forum too in several cases. When you've shown yourself to be a xenophobic, ignorant, little-Englander it's embarrassing to stick around.

Turnerguy is left, when he isn't posting on his anti-hallal/anti-immigrant thread.

This thread reflets the whole of British society. One side has the logic, the other side the stupid sound bites.

But the remoaners want to make that more difficult than it needs to be.

We do? What do you mean?

Edukator - that’s rich given the false comments you continue to post over and over again

But you are being a tad hard on yourself by admitting that you are relying on stupid sound bites now

As before they left this thread for good reason.

There were plenty of Brexies gloating about how they won when I asked the question THM. It was around a year ago.

IGM - be serious l, you normally are. We were the negative ones and that is exactly WHY we lost. Our failure to accept responsibility is telling

The same happened with the Indy debate but fortunately the Scots were too can’t to fall for the Gnats BS

You go on strike knowing that there are risks but that if you win then you'll be better off long term

that sounds like exactly the rationale that most brexiters used.

If you recall I have at least twice on this thread tried to explore what a successful Brexit might look like.

that's because it is hard to predict what the EU is going to let us have, because negotiating with them is prety impossible.

And this brexit bill rubbish - they know what they think we are financially committed to, and we know what we think we are committed to. Surely it is pretty simple to present these numbers and then we can either contest the numbers, or not.

That is the brexit bill, right there. It's not hard.

The only way a brexit vision can be proposed is if you take a known scenario - such as just going for a straight hard brexit and WTO rules, then at least you know the position you will be in and can plan for it.

One original suggestion was WTO rules and a low corp tax environment, like Singapore. Although at least the big companies, like Amazon, would probably be paying more actual tax as they wouldn't be able to play the current games that they do with the EU countries.

The eu are in control at the moment. And remoaners seem to delight in the fact

to blame either side for this obvious outcome is silly its like blaming someone for the sun rising.Its just what happens when you leave a club but want the perks of the club without the commitments.

As for get behind them - they dont have a plan to get behind as far as I can tell ...what am I meant to do give praise and support to May so we can get a better deal ? Its not the most democratic response and "my country right or wrong" is not a statement i personally agree with.

Yes we lost now they have to deliver on what they said would happen afterwards...does this look likely to you ?
You can blame us for not getting behind them if it makes you feel better but they wanted this they need to get it not me. I get to sit back and say told you so .I accept this is not that helpful for the process.

Not surprising they were gloating. They won a battle they should never have won. They probably could not believe how bad the remainers were are presenting a positive case for staying in.

We lost and deserved to. We now have a responsibility to limit the damage but are doing the opposite.

There were plenty of Brexies gloating about how they won when I asked the question THM. It was around a year ago.

that's because hanging around here with you bunch of glass half-empty remain losers is too depressing.

they always would be because we want access to their market. there is no way for them to be anything other than in control unless one was as silly as believe they need us more than they need us.

On simple trade terms if we went to WTO rules they would be paying more in tariffs than we would as we import more.

So you would think a trade deal would be on the cards just to limit that.

But there will be pressure not to because we are interrupting their political vision, a political vision that a large percentage of the voters were aware of and didn't want to be part of.

teamhurtmore - Member
IGM - be serious l, you normally are. We were the negative ones and that is exactly WHY we lost. Our failure to accept responsibility is telling

THM - I am being serious. Posters of lines of people with brown skin - positive? Talking about the cost and not the value - positive? (Oscar Wilde suggested that was cynical I think). Claiming we couldn’t control our own borders when we could - positive?
There was no positive case made for Brexit, it was all negatives about the EU.
As for responsibility - how can I be responsible for something I didn’t do and argued against? Note that I said at the same time I am taking responsibility on trying to bail the country out (in my own very small way), something I am yet to hear a Brexy take responsibility for (and I accept you are, but you’re not really a Brexy are you 😉 )

Why remainers should make any efforts to help with Brexit ?

There was no positive case made for Brexit, it was all negatives about the EU.

and that's not true either - several people were mentioning being able to make our own trade deals faster and also the removal of the effective bias against employing people from outside the EU.

I think you are just being negative, as usual...

On simple trade terms if we went to WTO rules they would be paying more in tariffs than we would as we import more.

You don’t understand who pays the tariff TG.

It’s like VAT. The buyer pays.

Now they might reduce the price in order to sell to us, but if we’re importing anyway, why bother? Only worthwhile in areas where they have clear competition and their physical proximity and perceived value means in many cases they won’t have to.

Why remainers should make any efforts to help with Brexit

Enough said. At least this a step away from Ed’s economic vandalism

[igm. You are correct I am not a Brexxy as you know 😉 )

several people were mentioning being able to make our own trade deals faster and also the removal of the effective bias against employing people from outside the EU.

By sticking up scary posters of brown people?

Ignoring the number of trade deals we would rip up before we start and the lack of people skilled in trade deal making?

Pull the other one.

Like Trump and Corbyn, Brexit is something Sugar didn’t see coming. He had been critical of the EU and thought Cameron should have been a tougher negotiator, but he never thought we would vote to leave. “I think what happened was – no disrespect to middle England – they didn’t understand what they were voting for. But I tell you what, in five years’ time when it’s all sorted out they are not going to like themselves because it’s going to be an absolute nightmare.”

Lord Sugar today....but what does he know...another "remoaning" "expert" we don't want to listen to.

THM - I do. Agreed

We now have a responsibility to limit the damage but are doing the opposite.

By doing what, exactly? As far as I can see the only way that I as an individual could influence that process would be by voting Tory in the GE so as to give Maybot more authority to deal with her party and the EU. Is that what you're actually suggesting?

You don’t understand who pays the tariff TG.

wrong way round - we would still be making more from the tarrifs due to them selling more in this country - I've see figures like 15 and 8 billion, in our favour. Same principle applies.

Faster trade deals ?

the US has just shown the type of trade deal you can expect , with the Bombardier case .

On simple trade terms if we went to WTO rules they would be paying more in tariffs than we would as we import more.

This fact in no way gives us any leverage and we are still the ones who cannot afford to lose trade. they dont want to but they can afford it- in fact they could lose all UK trade and survive where as we would be deeply deeply in the shit if all EU trade stopped and making Greece looks like paradise
Its not even a debatable point. The trade figures do not help us unless you cannot do maths

"Airbus need Rolls-Royce engines, not insignificant"
Makes space for GE to expand into the gap, don't forget the wing makers in Broughton and Filton, without access to the single market would Airbus pay to move its components from on factory to another? Very unlikely.

the issue is we can see areas where they need us but its still easier for them to diversify away from us than it is for us to move away from them.

In general such scenarios like rolls are outliers rather than typical

For example our entire car industry relies on imports from the EU theres doe snot rely on imports from us

TG - yes our government will make money from tariffs, but it’s our population who will pay it.

What like taxes 😉 ?

Just like taxes. The tariffs are effectively a tax on the UK, like a slightly nastier version of VAT.

Even Brexies aren’t suggesting that raising VAT is the answer to Brexit.

Considering Israel participates in Horizon 2020, there really is.

Yep we can be associate members, means we loose influence, obviously,

The government white paper said we'd still pay in for that kind of stuff, tho frustratingly no specifics, so what's happened is that UK scientists feel they are being excluded from current bids as there is nothing definite yet.
Meeting in work next week about this actually.

As for playing hardball*, Tnumtwnt 😆 German CBI equivalent said that they'd be willing to lose trade to make sure we don't get our cake & eat it, giving others incentive to leave, preserving the SM is a bigger priority than keeping us in it !
Infact some European hauliers already looking elsewhere as many components, crops etc booked 18mths in advance and we might not even have a transition then.

* The thought of May playing hardball is quite amusing, Barnier said he'd be watching the conference very closely, after last year's £crashing jingoismfest, I'll bet he's still chuckling in to his wine over this year's showing.

The "media" clearly still aren't doing a very good job of informing people what "[b]WTO rules[/b]" really means, and what the work and negotiations to come, to arrive at new quotas and schedules, might entail. At some point a lot of people are going to get a wake up call on this.

As for "[b]faster trade deals[/b]" … it's pie in the sky. Pick any two nonEU counties of significance, and look into the trade negotiations that went into (or is still going into) arriving at a trade deal of any importance between them. Now add in the time required simply to try and claw back our existing trade deals that we are about to lose. Nothing fast about any of what needs to happen.

The brexxies left this thread a long time ago for good reason.

The fact their vacuous rhetoric was shown to be exactly what it is: jingoistic fantasy and nothing more?

The whole idea of Brexit is bollocks. Anyone with half a brain can see that. It's hardly surprising therefore that a) it's not going particularly well, and b) it's dragging down anyone who tries to manage it in the process.

I'm not naïve enough to think that Labour, if in power, would handle it much better. But they're not.

It was brought on by the Tories. They can fix it. If they tear themselves apart in the process (as it appears they are), then so much the better from my perspective. Most things the Tories want to do don't benefit the majority, Brexit is just the crowning glory of them.

The fact their vacuous rhetoric was shown to be exactly what it is: jingoistic fantasy and nothing more?

As opposed to negative scaremongering that proved equally vacuous - and led to the Brexshiteers winning. How embarrassing is that? Which is/was worse?

The whole idea of Brexit is bollocks. Anyone with half a brain can see that.

How? It hasn’t happened and we do not know the terms yet. But it does take a whole brain to see that I guess?

It's hardly surprising therefore that a) it's not going particularly well

True but there are two sides to a failed negotiation - one doesn’t want to negotiate at all

and b) it's dragging down anyone who tries to manage it in the process.

On the contrary many are well prepared already and merely wanting to get on with it.

I'm not naïve enough to think that Labour, if in power, would handle it much better. But they're not.

They may we’ll be very soon. Hence the eu already have back room discussions with Labour

It was brought on by the Tories

Alternatively by ththe majority of voters not all of whom were Tories

They can fix it. If they tear themselves apart in the process (as it appears they are), then so much the better from my perspective.

Looks like your wish would of be granted. Look on the bright side.

Most things the Tories want to do don't benefit the majority,

What was the term? Vacuous rhetoric?

As opposed to negative scaremongering that proved equally vacuous - and led to the Brexshiteers winning. How embarrassing is that? Which is/was worse?

How? It hasn’t happened and we do not know the terms yet. But it does take a whole brain to see that I guess?

I know you want to own the shut up and stop complaining part but people are seeing the impacts and having to deal with it. Politically it's not over so people have every right to get stuck in.

Most things the Tories want to do don't benefit the majority,

What was the term? Vacuous rhetoric?

It hasn’t happened and we do not know the terms yet. But it does take a whole brain to see that I guess?

Are predictions that have yet to come to pass - despite you making them for well over a decade and setting no date for the actual event - still ok?

Just want to be sure its ok for you to say the Euro is doomed but not ok for us to say talks are not working and we wont get what we hoped for.
I also look fwd to seeing one of your economic reports

Dear Board

The future is unpredictable, it has not happened yet, and it still ongoing. Therefore i have nothing to say and can make no predictions
Love THM

It is what you do isnt it?

negative scaremongering that proved equally vacuous

Nope, it's proved almost Nostradamusesque in its accuracy so far

True but there are two sides to a failed negotiation - one doesn’t want to negotiate at all

Doesn't really matter whose "fault" it is. Fact remains it was very predictable, and has come to pass.

On the contrary many are well prepared already and merely wanting to get on with it.

Well, Barnier's doing all right out of it, I suppose

It was brought on by the Tories

Alternatively by ththe majority of voters not all of whom were Tories

Last time I checked, it was Tory Prime Minister David Cameron who used his majority in the House of Commons to pass the legislation required to enable the referendum. The irony is of course that many leave voters just voted no to piss the tories off.

Most things the Tories want to do don't benefit the majority,

What was the term? Vacuous rhetoric?

Nope, you want the antonym - grounded in significant fact

Doesn't really matter whose "fault" it is. Fact remains it was very predictable, and has come to pass.

Yes the EU avoids negotiation- utterly predictable

So..... do we think that 300% is now the benchmark tariff set on post-brexit UK exports? Or will it go higher?

Yes the EU avoids negotiation- utterly predictable

I'm sure the EU called a totally unnecessary election to waste three months of an already impossibly short negotiating time period also.

You're getting towards Jamby levels of one-eyedness here.

With all the emerging markets waiting to do trade with us I think that might be an underestimation STOP DOING BRITAIN DOWN REMOANER

One eye on the core issue - we need to start proper negotiation

The EU are past masters at this* and remoaners are falling for it hook, line and sinker.

* avoiding and making the other party look to blame

THM - there are good reasons for them to negotiate in this way. Why wouldn’t they?

We are lucky that we have you here to explain it all to us.

Anyway I think what we say here is

It hasn’t happened and we do not know the terms yet. But it does take a whole brain to see that I guess?

DO you agree with yourself or not ?

Because at the end of the day WE ALL lose

remoaners are falling for it hook, line and sinker.

Think you'll find that it's the brexshitters who are negotiating (or not) with the EU. Predictable? Of course - which is why getting into this situation was so stupid.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]Because at the end of the day WE ALL lose

we all agree on this but as we did not vote for this why do you expect us to help us lose?

They wanted this they can lose for us and take the blame for the inevitable

THM - agreed. But politically that isn’t entirely unacceptable to the EU and they are probably, just due to size, better able to absorb the loss than we are.

Either way things are going to start getting more expensive round here soon - what is past is as they say merely prologue.

Who is to blame? We started this pantomime 🙄

They wanted this they can lose for us and take the blame for the inevitable

Exactly

Of course the UK could play a blinder by guaranteeing EU nationals rights, coming up with a workable solution for NI, and proposing a reasonable divorce bill. Then it would be the EU who would be seen to be dragging their heels.

And the Nasty party have never done that? Grow up.

THM - agreed. But politically that isn’t entirely unacceptable to the EU

Therin lies the conundrum

teamhurtmore » Because at the end of the day WE ALL lose

I’m not. I see this so am getting in with making the best of what is in front of us. No point remaining in denial for ever

Calling for a change of direction is not the same as being in denial about the direction we are on.

Plan for the worst hope for the best...

Built my Brexit bunker and if it gets worse than my worst view I have a Brexit 2.0 contingency plan.