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Perhaps we can leave the definition to some people who should probably know meanings and definitions along with common uses
The chancellor has warned that government finances remain vulnerable in the event of another financial shock and the Treasury’s task must remain to bring down the deficit over the next parliament.Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the IFS, said: “An ‘end to austerity’ – as defined by no further net tax rises, benefit cuts or cuts to spending on public services – would require a very sharp change of direction.
“It would imply a £17bn boost to planned spending on public services alongside a £5bn net tax cut and an £11bn increase in planned benefit spending – ie a giveaway of £33bn a year. [That] would, on current forecasts, leave us with a deficit at its current level – 2.4% of GDP – in 2021-22.”
Emmerson said relaxing the spending squeeze was “an option in a way that it was not an option back in 2010”. But he warned that it would leave the chancellor with “less room for manoeuvre” if growth stalled as a result of Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/12/heres-how-end-austerity-keep-deficit-low-ifs
But lets not get caught out arguing over a definition when the real world consequences are still apparent.
The government is not receiving enough cash to pay for everything it needs to so services are being cut. Despite ring fencing (fancy political term that means absolutely nothing) public sector wages are being cut in real terms. So more people are living on less money as costs rise. Less earnings, less spending = less tax, lower growth and demand etc.
Now fixing this will be a tricky game as all the indicators say Brexit will cost money (remember that is the stuff we don't have a lot of) cuts to the things the EU spends on like farming and development will either need to be matched or that money is gone from the economy.
Maybe Hammond should get the same dictionary as THM. Would be easier.
Don't worry Shakleton, I was teasing. From "reading" previous posts I knew not to expect precision .
The reason for asking the question was not just a mild tease, but to note how false the current narrative that shapes political debate is, be it it Etonions (how many people used to argue that Osbourne was an OE?!?), austerity, inequality etc. Indeed the party with the greatest current momentum is riding a wave of falsehood - anti-austerity and inequality - any whilst it is deceitful, it is brilliant politics because people are fooled by it, they are not interested in the truth (see above) and the winners are the side that wins the strategic communications (lying) war not the bearers of truth. Brexshit was just one good example of this. Perhaps the best alongside Scottish Indy supporters and Trump.
The reasons for "seeking" precision on austerity is a simple one. The current narrative and sloppy terminology merely ensures that people continue to misunderstand what is going on. Of course it is true that there have been cuts. What has happened is the gap between what our government spends and what it receives has gone down. But it remains high, indeed higher than in most other developed economies which is precisely why - as Krugman agrees with me - the UK recovered earlier and stronger. Of curse it was also helped as in Europe much later by central banks stealing off savers but that is another story.
The second reason that it is important is that the Cameron was 100% wrong when he said that you can't solve a debt crisis with more debt. When the private sector is deleveraging it is crucial that governments do the opposite. Contrary to the false but popular narrative, that is what happened in the UK. Of course Cameron was not alone in getting this wrong - most of Europe did too. Hence they imposed EXACTLY the wrong policy for Greece at EXACTLY the wrong time in order to avoid ciriticism of their structure (€) that was responsible for the crisis in the first place.
Truth is the first victim of crises. Failing to understanding what is going on means that we are doomed to repeat mistakes.
and Borris has just hit self destruct/leadership bid
In his interview with the Sun, he called for four conditions for Brexit, which were then described by the paper as his "four red lines":Transition period must be a maximum of two years
UK must refuse to accept new EU rules during that period
No payments for access to the single market after the end of the transition period
UK must not agree to shadow EU rules to gain access to the single market
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41441444
How does he think the UK will access the single market?
The market for out of EU spec goods isn't that big in the EU, it's a fine grandstanding for the Kippers and Loons at the Mail/Express which seems to play to the EU going to sabotage best go for the hard brexit button.
Johnson knows what he's doing, staking his claim as the champion of Brexit, so he can say if they'd done it his way, it wouldn't have been the painful compromise we will inevitably have to face.
His ego knows now bounds!
Tho channel 4 have a documentary about his gaffes as foreign sec this weekend 🙂
I don't know why May doesn't sack Boris, there aren't that many swivel eyed loons who support him. I don't know why Boris covets being PM so much, poisoned chalice for years to ome.
His ego is as monstrous as his public persona.
I don't know why Boris covets being PM so much, poisoned chalice for years to ome.
er you do
His ego is as monstrous as his public persona.
I think he has a decent level of support and it's exactly the SEL's that May needs to keep onside at this point. The are the ones who defect to UKIP, the middle basically have the Lib Dems as a deserting ground.
er you do
?????????
his ego is the answer, it's something they can't take from you
His ego is as monstrous as his public persona.
"Johnson’s impromptu recital was so embarrassing that the UK ambassador to Myanmar, Andrew Patrick, was forced to stop him. "
Is he trying to get himself sacked so he can't have his feet held to the fire over this whole disaster he has brought about?
nah he gets fired/resigns so that he can step up with his my plan for the win only serious alternative to May & Electoral defeat
Mays dilemma is whether to have him in the tent pissing out or outside pissing in.whatever boris is doing it is well calculated and designed to serve nothing other than Boris- i think he wants out so he can say it was not down to him and he tried personally.
He also does have an inordinate ability to put his foot in his mouth as well so an ambassadorial role is the most stupid choice for him as he will show time and time again.
Why are they news?
Transition period must be a maximum of two years - ok, unrealistic but that's e current deal. So no news
UK must refuse to accept new EU rules during that period - largely irrelevant
No payments for access to the single market after the end of the transition period - NSS (although woukd be better to PV the future pension liabilies and then delay the actual payment over time)
UK must not agree to shadow EU rules to gain access to the single market - irrelevant, if you dont meet standards you can't acces the markets.
So largely non points from a vacuous politician
teamhurtmore - Member
Why are they news?
Bless....
Because the FS is mounting a challenge to the PM, he needs to do what he did during the campaign and whip up fear
But Boris last night said anything longer than 24 months — effectively to March 30, 2021 — would be a mistake that would leave Brexit voters feeling betrayed.Talking to The Sun in his vast room in the Foreign Office, overlooking St James’s Park, the 53-year-old Tory big beast said: “I got that from my own talking to people. Very strongly.
“What that teaches me is that really is it. Rien ne va plus. Finito la musica. Then we come out. There can be no monkeying around.
Language and the rest, also take a look at the source, Murdoch making sure we all know he has lost faith in May and putting stock into Boris.
That is why it is news
Nothing new
Nothing in the points of substance
Hardly news just sun click bait
Look at your extract
But Boris last night said anything longer than 24 months — effectively to March 30, 2021 — would be a mistake that would leave Brexit voters feeling betrayed.
He will be claiming the earth is round next
Boris really knows how this diplomacy thing works!
So nothing at all about the timing of when he chose to speak, the way he chooses to position himself?
Clue...
The news isn't just what he said, the why, how and when are more important. It is the start of a serious amount of tory infighting at the conference. The fact it's the party of government makes that news.
We know all that - what's new?
Just gives Bojo the attention he doesn't deserve
The Tories always self destruct on Europe
It's as if the Sun says last week that J McD will show he doesn't understand the things he's responsible for (e.g. PFI this time) and Corbyn will lie about austerity and inequality.
All BS but all part of both sides highly successful narratives and manipulation of the truth.
Poor old Boris apparently he is struggling to get by on his £146k salary....
Austerity is not just for poor people it would seem
Guess the quotes:
Is it ever a mistake to give people the opportunity to vote? I don’t think so.
and
There must be [...] no second referendum.
So, who said what?
Pigface - MemberI don't know why May doesn't sack Boris, there aren't that many swivel eyed loons who support him.
Every last swivel eyed loon counts though- that's why she had to buy extra ones from chain reaction.
Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to May’s Brexit plans
https://www.ft.com/content/92bb5636-a95b-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97?
The US joined other major agricultural exporters including Argentina, Brazil and New Zealand in signing a letter sent last week to the EU and UK’s WTO ambassadors objecting to the plan to split the quotas that cover everything from New Zealand butter and lamb to US poultry and wheat.
I thought that this was going to be the 'easiest trade deal in history' ?
That isn't even the trade deal. That's the "oh we can just jump into WTO rules, it's straightforward and the rest of the world does fine with it" deal.
You know, it's enough to make you wonder if anyone has thought this through.
All the civil servants thought it through a couple of years ago. But there aren't 17 million of them.
Basic problem is that we've developed a political class who are so divorced from reality that they think they can make things happen just by talking about them. Like the (in)famous (I think it's disputed) quote "when we act, we create our own reality". That works for fairly straightforward and limited systems like tinkering with how benefits are paid or schools are managed, especially if you don't care about the fallout. But it can't overturn physical reality, and the physical reality is that we have no way of replicating the functions of the EU in the time scale required, nor is there a physical solution to the irish border problem on any time scale. Simply saying it will be ok doesn't make it so. And these issues are far too big to be just allowed to fail completely. But the politicians in their Westminster bubble, all full of leadership plots and soundbites, haven't realised that yet (ok I'm sure plenty have by now, but are still too scared to say it in public). And most of the UK population hasn't thought past next week's Coronation street, whichever side of the vote they were on.
Another thing they seemed to have collectively failed to grasp is the concept of 'negotiation'
It amounts to more than issuing a list of your demands, then everyone else agreeing to your wish-list. You'd never know it though, watching these clowns.
According to them, failing to immediately grant everything, immediately and without question, classes as being obstructive.
The arrogance is breathtaking
They need lessons.
slowoldman
You know, it's enough to make you wonder if anyone has thought this through.
Of course no one thought it through. Neither side ever intended it to happen.
Hence BoJo, hence Farage saying 52:48 for remain meant he would be staying in the gravy train for a good while longer.
in your opinion, when does the remit of the EU referendum run out?
A link for those without FT access for the WTO stuff:Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to May’s Brexit plans
http://www.politico.eu/article/us-rounds-on-britain-over-food-quotas-as-post-brexit-trade-woes-deepen/amp/
Amen. And asking for a "real plan", rather than hand waving, isn't undemocratic/treachery/talkingdown/moaning.Simply saying it will be ok doesn't make it so.
That was the question that should have been asked of a more influential minister (or of Corbyn).in your opinion, when does the remit of the EU referendum run out?
Rhetorical question. Brexit is happening.
Giving two conference calls on dealing with implications today !!!
The details are actually very interesting - if a bit dry and legal - but the idea of no plan simply doesn’t hold up, at least not at the industry level. We can cope, just need to get on with it 😉
Don't see much sign of it happening myself.
There’s the difference!!
Been a v busy Brexshit week for me on top of other issues - have to be v careful not to say or write Brexshit in a professional capacity!!!!
You're not making it happen either - just getting excited about it. There's a difference.
On the contrary we are getting on with being ready for life after Brexshit. Much better than doing nothing. And it’s interesting too!
Not excited but prepared
We too we are preparing to lose at least 10% of our turnover.
Yes, very interesting.
Honestly we can't wait to let the lion roar and deal with the needless shit storm coming our way.
Also preparing.
A lot of preparing is getting people to understand that in the standards world we will have lost a lot of influence. The EU will set standards and we will comply, not because we do or don’t want to, but because that is commercial reality.
Yep meeting next week about ways around potential funding loss for post H2020 research grants.
Great coz budgets aren't tight enough already, and I really can't be bothered wasting my time in a v dull meeting, brexshitters that one's on you!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41511790
Brexit putting the Royal Marines out of a job.
I wonder if the brexshitters envisaged this.
Some great lateral thinking there Tom
Davis send to think that he can negotiate a specific trade deal just with Germany
(1/3) Post #Brexit a UK-German deal would include free access for their cars and industrial goods, in exchange for a deal on everything else
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770127564607489
Is he lying to upset the EU or pandering to the swivel eyed?
Or just bonkers?
We too we are preparing to lose at least 10% of our turnover.
Yes, very interesting.
Honestly we can't wait to let the lion roar and deal with the needless shit storm coming our way.
But, but, but - think of all the interesting work it will create for those who are out of the firing line!
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when does the remit of the EU referendum run out?
Rhetorical question.
Some possible answers for you…
- only if the result of a subsequent referendum rescinds it before we have left
- until the next general election
- until the first general election after the referendum (why should a referendum bind future governments?)
- only if a government is formed before we Leave that wants us to remain
- when whoever is currently PM says so
- when both parliaments vote for a change or to ask the public via a referendum
- the very day we are no longer a member of the EU (even if we are entering a transition period)
- the day we have deemed to have left the Single Market and/or Customs Union
- a period of time equivalent to a normal parliamentary session
- a period of time equivalent to the current parliamentary session
- a "generation"
- as long as the 1975 referendum
- after we have left, but in transition, and a new government wants to renegotiate membership
- after transition is over, and a new government wants to renegotiate membership
- when public opinion has turned against Leaving
- when it is clear that Leaving will not take the form voters were led to expect
- only if a "rejoin" referendum is won by a simple majority
- only if a "rejoin" referendum is won by a super majority
brexshit is a f****** stupid idea, and most businesses will be making plans to deal with the fall out. I am still wondering what happens when the sunny uplands don't emerge. What happens when the US decides that we will have chlorine chicken, when farmers go bust because they can't survive in a free trade environment.
Details like what the customs post March 2019 will look like and what happens when people and goods are faced with hours in transit getting through. What will be the reaction if BMW relocates Mini production or Vauxhall at Ellesmere Port gets shut down, to keep the supply chains working. etc.
Will people just have another pint of beer and carry on watching X factor. Or will they wonder why things aren't getting better.
I am still wondering what happens when the sunny uplands don't emerge.
1. We blame the EU for not giving u a fair deal - as if free access without paying and without the 4 freedoms was ever an achievable or realistic goal
2. We blame others " for doing britain down"
We certainly wont be blaming the people who voted for this or the people who lied to get the vote.
I'm aware of people preparing too, THM. The UK used to be the favourite destination for a "séjour linguistique" or "voyage pédagogique". Madame has taken kids to the UK for the last 16 years but will be visiting Strasbourg and Germany next.
The last trip to England had a Brexit flavour with a dreadful welcome from some families. The brochure of one company she works with now reads roughly "the quality of welcome in families is sometimes limited to the minimum", they recommend youth hostels instead.
The brochure which used to be mainly the UK now has more trips to European neighbours.
Generations of European kids have been given a positive view of the UK and a chance to visit. Brexit is changing that.
I'm doing a week's work for a French company next week. I've spent £0 and 0 minutes on paperwork.
Sabadell bank has just announced it's quitting Barcelona because of the uncertainty over the future of the province. Think about that.
Caixabank too .
edit : and they are not the only ones . lots of small firms have done it too .
Ordered some niche bikepacking jubilee clips from the USA. They cost about £25. Got a customs slip through the door today. Need to pay £12 including a £8 handling fee to get them out of the post office.
Is this what Brexit is going to be like for everything we buy from Europe? The whole bloody thing depresses me.
you cant put a price on taking back control . and remember it is going to fund the nhs .........
Ordered some niche bikepacking jubilee clips from the USA. They cost about £25. Got a customs slip through the door today. Need to pay £12 including a £8 handling fee to get them out of the post office.Is this what Brexit is going to be like for everything we buy from Europe? The whole bloody thing depresses me.
No because we will be making things in Britain won't way as part of the isolationism, we are ace at making shit
I assume rumours of Theresa May setting up a future trade deal with North Korea aren’t true.
Anyone know?
some great lateral thinking there
Did you not read the bit about foreign purchases rising significantly in cost... eg all those big ticket items like F35s, Apache AH64Es, TLAMs etc etc thanks to Brexshit?
This is inevitable because tge military was already having a hard time balancing manpower vs equipment commitments.
*Double post
Get ready for more US-style megafarms. We already have about 800. But It's OK because Gove says it's not happening.
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2017-07-21/michael-gove-intensive-farming-defra
Let's ask the Telegraph readers. There is 1 comment on this article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/pets/news-features/does-uk-really-want-mega-farms/
Or do we ask the Guardian readers? There are 946 comments on this article:
So France & Germany have said that there can be no transition until the exit bill is settled.
It's almost as if the schedule that Davis signed up to on day 1 is actually a schedule he has to stick to, rather than wasting time & effort trying to speak to EU states behind Barnier's back he should just get on with the job in hand.
TBH I think the EU is a being a tad unrealistic perhaps even Bullying as the RW press would call it.
Its blindingly obvious that how generous we will be with payments is related to how generous they are with access and the two are intrinsically linked.
Its like a divorce you wont be massively generous if you dont have access to your kids ...you will just be as arsey as they are
The EU know this which is why they want a generous settlement for us - the idea we should pay for the budgets even if we are not part of them is frankly nuts.
the more this goes on the more I think the criteria exists simply to prevent any deal occuring.
So France & Germany have said that there can be no transition until the exit bill is settled.It's almost as if....
They are deliberately blocking the proper negotiations
And we, our press, and remoaners are on THER side. Remarkable 😯
Even more remarkably, some people still think we should press on with the process. Meanwhile we've got a placeholder PM with no mandate, no support in the HoC, and no chance of getting any agreement through the legislative process.
Indeed our two main parties captain who dominate the vote. Remarkable isn’t it?
Still some stay in denial and would rather ensure that our hand is weak. Remar.....
The next thing will be people who like the EU and it’s laws will be objecting to ensuring we have them in place on day 1. Rema....
I don't see anyone "on their side". We dealt them a hand full of aces and they are playing them in the obvious way.
Only if they mistake the joker for the ace. Sensible Europeans know the dangers of a hard Brexshit and are as scared of it as we are. Unfortunately there is the project snd it’s [s]lack of integrity [/s] in the way
Who dealt the cards Doc?
we, our press, and remoaners are on THER side.
Aye the DM and the express and the Sun have been steadfast in their support for remain and the German/French/EU position
What a very accurate description that was and no one could deny that.
What exactly woudl constitute strengtheing our position - an election mandate, a united party etc
the reality is the country is divided on the issue. heck even leavers are divided on what they want to achieve so division is inevitable.
I suggest you learn to deal with this as the country is never going to speak with one voice on this issue.
Everyone who agrees with me is sensibleSensible Europeans
#smugpolitcalstatements
Sensible Europeans are getting on with European things. Brexit is just a minor annoyance for them.
Like the Catalans and the German auto makers ?
Minor !!!
I think they realise the EU position is to protect the EU so they are just not expecting a deal and neither should we. They want the Uk to suffer afterwards so that the "debate " about being better off out than in has a very clear and obvious answer. It was always going to be this
Business may want free trade but politicians are looking for political solutions and there are none as there is no will on the part of the Eu to deal. We all knew this before we voted so the dream of being out the EU but in the market was anything but "sensible".
Scared! I'm terrified. Could someone explain exactly what it is I'm to fear?
So far I've learned that the EU institutions will be repatriating jobs, banks will be relocating personelle here, the European trading platforms will be more active, manufacturers will be sourcing more from the continent, foreign investors will no longer be attracted to Britain and likely to invest in the EU, the EU will get a windfall payment and then regular payments for market access, the US will establish direct ties with the EU rather than using Britain as a proxy.
You see there's spin on both sides and both are trying to make a bad thing look good.
😀
Heads of all rEU counties said this before we even triggered A50. If our press is too blinkered, and our populous too, well, yes, stupid, to not realise this, then we have the government, and negotiators we deserve. Repeating and reaffirming the day one position of the EU is not news. The only news is that "they need us more than they we need them" still isn't understood to be bullshit by so many people in the UK. [b]Still![/b] Crazy.So France & Germany have said that there can be no transition until the exit bill is settled.
Exactly they are controlling the narrative and the process. To coin a phrase we need to take some control otherwise it WILL be bad
When we triggered A50. We gave them full control. End of. Still hasn't dawned on most though.
Sorry for calling such a big proportion of the UK populous "stupid", but, with so much time passed, and so many opportunities to wake up and see the world as it is, "misled" or "uninformed" is no longer strong enough. I argued against those calling huge swaths of Leave voters "stupid", but I think time is proving me wrong. Utterly depressing.
Only if we chose to
we need to take some control
Meaning what, in concrete terms?
the EU will get a windfall payment
The EU expects a windfall payment
the likelyhood of the UK paying one when getting "shafted"* is not high
* By which i mean paying a budget to an organisation we no longer have access to
I wont be saying my gym membership for 2 years when i cancel without being allowed to use it and its daft of the EU to think anyone will accept this
The ECJ is another example no nation is going to let a "foreign court" rule over it and allow immigrants to have greater rights than natives
I assume the EU also know this and its a deliberate line to avoid a deal
The more it goes on the more i see two sides who are either so far apart that a deal is impossible of they have deliberately drawn lines in the sand to make sure no deal is possible.
I dont see why parallel talks [ trade and money and people] is such a daft idea
So what is it that we have that the EU needs?
Unless we sign up and pay in our banking services won't be accessible
Ok we are a market for cars and for food stuffs but as I understand it we will still need to eat so for the short term at least we will probably keep our supply chain the same for food. For cars I thought the money market was China. That the fact Vauxhall could not compete there as gm wanted to push the Chevrolet brand was why the company was failing.
Everything I buy seems to come from China...
So the next thing is what goods are we exporting that cannot ever be made in Europe or elsewhere by someone with a bit of entrepreneurial spirit. If it is the service industry that's just moving people so really easy.
Honestly I am not trying to have a dig I want to know so I can try to future proof myself. I know the company I work for is closing uk offices and plants and consolidating to Germany and Romania.
... So what is it that we have that the EU needs?
Airbus need Rolls-Royce engines, not insignificant.