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The Marr interview exposed him - the emperor (sic) has no clothes on
Still obsessing about JC's clothes, hurty?
Hmm, my first google hit produced this which claims the majority still want to leave , 50% leave,
46% remain (last poll date june 21st 2017).
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
But thats the thing about opinion polls theyre not definitive and in recent years have been completely wrong.
Edukator so your position is the EU won't agree a free trade deal in cars / auto parts unless it's an exclusive ? That makes no sense. The European manufacturers are (IMO) going to have to get used to the Americans and Japanese having a level playing field when selling to UK customers. Ditto French farmers. That's the best they can hope for, a level playing field. If we don't agree a free trade deal with the EU then the 27 are going to be at a disadvantage when we put in place free trade agreements elsewhere which will happen quickly not least as its politically smart ahead of the next GE and it strengthens our hand with the EU of course. Remember we are a net importer of all tjese things and the products are available from multiple sources.
True DD - a master class in confusion worked wonders!
Dr - thats a really poor attempt, although expected as I typed. Would you confuse the idiom with earlier comments- SNAP, the trap was sprung!!!
when we put in place free trade agreements elsewhere which will happen quickly
Utter Brexit fantasy.
I REALLY can't believe STWers are still posting about the Referendum result and public opinion. We just had a General Election. People voted on manifestos (and (non) promises of writing off student debt too 😉 )
Julian - be careful. Questions matter.
Same people doing the poll work done more recently.
Yes polls have inaccuracies. Look at the know accuracy of a company where you can,look at a basket of companies and look at the trends within a company. Also look at poll type. People are less willing to admit to being Brexies on the phone (or voting Tory normally).
One poll alone is never a good thing to rely on.
Jamba - this fight will be going on for years. Bringing down Brexit and the Brexies that caused it may we'll take that long. They're generally older and dying out - but not exclusively.
Anyway they have don't harm to my family's future so I will see what I can do to get even. The same way you would in return. 😉
As for what people voted for, I voted to try and weaken May (and the UK government generally) as I thought it would give the UK the best long term future if the negotiations became virtually untenable. Didn't work. We got the evil waste of space (can you be both) that is Sturdy.
However the fight goes on. For decades if necessary.
when we put in place free trade agreements elsewhere which will happen quickly
DD, sadly i don't think it is delusional, i wish it was though. Fast deals are bad deals, but politics demands they be done. It will shaft the UK but that is of no importance. There is money to be made by selling off the NHS and ramming GM and chlorine down our throats.
Utter Brexit fantasy.
As opposed to a global recession predicted by the IMF / OECD ?
A free trade deal with US and Japan in cars is pretty trivia imol. They both manufacture here so a commitment to keep that and share some technology (eg hybrid vehicles ?) and we are done ?
Gove just ruled out chlorine chicken (frankly I don't see the fuss, I've eaten it many times) btw. Whatever US farmers say it's not going to derail a deal on cars.
I hope we're not getting American cars. They really are shoddy.
I lived there, I've driven there (as I think have you). Badly designed, inefficient, poorly made and rarely drive well.
As opposed to a global recession predicted by the IMF / OECD ?
Did I miss that press release? I remember a large reduction in GDP over many years relative to the counter factual, but it was still positive. And that seems to be happening in the UK at least.
Julian, what i will say from your link, there is no clear demand for anything.
This is the crux of the argument. there is no real demand for anything. A few vocals on both sides. Brexit will lose, IMO, because of time and money. 88c to the pound for your summer holidays, that is Brexit and that is what the average voter will see. They will see the chaos of no deal as it isn't going to happen smoothly like so many brexiteers claim.
The question is who do they pin the blame on.
Jamba 😉
Customers choice igm. Ford Focus, Fiesta, Mondeo etc ? They can make cars at all quality points.
Gove is no mug, his announcements on no diesel (and petrol) by. 2040 plays heavily into Japanese and American hands as European manufacturers have prioritised diesel. There is some Brexit politicking in this
Ever driven a good American car. I haven't.
And those you mention are European cars.
As for Japanese manufacturers, like say Nissan and Mitsubishi who clearly are good at electric / hybrid - aren't they part of the Renault Nissan Alliance and effectively Renault owned these days? I don't think that European manufacturer will struggle.
Tesla is technically interesting but flawed as a company - they'll collapse in the not to distant future, though I expect the products to continue in some form.
Not sure your optimism / pessimism for Japan &a US / European car companies actually stacks up that cleanly.
Fast deals are bad deals, but politics demands they be done. It will shaft the UK but that is of no importance.
I think the phrase that Liam Fox, David Davis and chums better get used to hearing is
"take it or ****in' leave it mate!"
That's the 'deals' we'll be getting
Don't push the positivity too far jambas - 0.3% GDP was hardly stellar in 2Q! Not a catastrophe but not great either.
Maybe the truth does lie somewhere in the middle TMH but when faced with such negativity why the hell not eh ?
@igm we live in a democracy, by all means support / vote for / create a party that wants to stop Brexit / re-join the EU. Maybe you can find a Farage / UKIP equivalent who can do it single handed ? But it certainly aint Blair, Cable or Caroline Lucas. Corbyn amd McDonnell want out of the EU so they can nationalise / support industry. I think they wre misguided in that but I support their view that they wamt to chance to control UK government policy
Electric / Hybrid announced by Grayling not Gove. Both at centre of Vote Leave
[b]2040[/b] plays heavily into Japanese and American hands as European manufacturers have prioritised diesel
checks calendar... yeah, I bet VW are pulling their hair out and are already taking sledgehammers to diesel production lines 🙄
Is 2040 when Gove thinks we'll have sorted out all our trade deals, then?
2040 is to give a 10 year life cycle before our 2050 commitments. And that came from the governments zero emission vehicle advisor when I spoke with him last week.
GM just sold their eu cars to Peugeot, Chrisler is Fiat ?
Not much choice is it ?
Same with Japanese, big Toyota factories in France.
Incidentally I think certain manufacturers are going to find they backed the wrong horse on charger technology.
A decent DC charger network, just to buy the chargers, looks like it will cost as much per annum as the entire UK electrical distribution system from LV to 132kV. And that's before you install and connect the chargers. Eye watering.
My suspicion is that although DC charging has advantages for the car, it will therefore be too expensive for a mass roll-out - without which range anxiety will stop folks buying electric.
Something to consider when looking at who's ahead technology-wise.
Dr - thats a really poor attempt, although expected as I typed. Would you confuse the idiom with earlier comments- SNAP, the trap was sprung!!!
ROFL - yeah, it was all just a cunning plan, nothing to do with being a hypocrite. How could I have doubted it?!
You didn't - you made a vain attempt to connect this thread to the JRM and failed. Apples and pears, apples and pears. Better luck next time.
Up to you if you want to delet the word hypocrite ^ though - probable better not as the irony would be missed
Stop squabbling boys.
If you need to be nasty to each other, do it with style and hyperbole.
Like wot I always do like. 😉
You didn't - you made a vain attempt to connect this thread to the JRM and failed.
Self evidently I didn't.
hypocrite
How would you suggest describing someone who criticises others for doing what he does himself?
just came up on my twitter feed, and as STW is the font of all knowledge.
If no deal is better than a bad deal with the EU why are we caring about deals with the US, China, etc because obviously the deal will be in their favour not ours???
Dr?
😉
Jambas - do have a read of Gideons Gobshite tonight - the reporting of GDP and then leader are brilliant(ly awful)
I'm happy to let the readers judge for themselves who the ... err ... inconsistent one is ...
How sad that in this day and age people are still judged by how they talk, how they dress.
Looks like a new suit. Very smart but should have cut the label off. Purple tie for Lent too...amazing
Mr Corbyn doesnt wear a tie most of the time,
Indeed, someone really should have a word. At least french socialists maintain a sense of style.
Perhaps now that he does his top button up and wears a tie.
Oh a derail - what fun. Damn wrong choice of phrase when sitting on a train....
Hmmm. Brexit... derail... if only someone could do puns and word play and things.
So tell me THM, do your more 'verbose' days correlate to long train journeys too, or is it your daily commute?
Bit of both!!
Plus nature of work on a particular day.
If no deal is better than a bad deal with the EU why are we caring about deals with the US, China, etc because obviously the deal will be in their favour not ours???
A bad deal with the EU would/could include ludicrous budget contributions (eg imo any amount), continued full access to fisheries, something similar to freedom of movement, jurisdiction of ECJ
Why is it [b]obvious[/b] a deal with US or Japan would be a bad one ? They won't ask for a budget contribution (EU is unique in asking for money), they won't ask for freedom of movement or expect their courts to tell us which criminals we can or cannot deport. We have a trade deficit with them as we do with the EU so getting a balance is going to be hard anyway.
TMH the Standard is worth what you have to pay for it, nought. Gideon is just a very bitter man having seen his UK political career evaporate. I'm sure he'll angle for something at the IMF etc.
@igm IMF downgraded their 2017 UK forecast and left 2018 unchanged. We are a smidge below Germany (1.7 vs 1.8) but still ahead of France and of course Italy. Spain is growing strongly but who wants 10% general and 25%+ youth unemployment ? Not me.
@mike Corbyn said he would "deal with" outstanding student debt as it was unfair that large numbers if students would have debts whilst under Labour new students would pay nothing. His intention was blatantly clear, to me and thousands of current and ex students.
@igm IMF downgraded their 2017 UK forecast and left 2018 unchanged. We are a smidge below Germany (1.7 vs 1.8) but still ahead of France and of course Italy. Spain is growing strongly but who wants 10% general and 25%+ youth unemployment ? Not me.
Not sure why that's @igm
Someone else comment on the economy or did I do it and forget? I mean I have done in the past, but not recently.
Was it this?
As opposed to a global recession predicted by the IMF / OECD ?
Did I miss that press release? I remember a large reduction in GDP over many years relative to the counter factual, but it was still positive. And that seems to be happening in the UK at least.
I don't think what you've said is incompatible with what i expressed. A large reduction over a long period is a small reduction on average relative to a positive counter factual in each year. The reduction in GDP was across 20 years or so as I recall so no further downgrade for 2018 is neither here nor there. Also who cares if we managed to damage the EU at the same time - if anything that just makes it worse.
Remember I work in an industry where 10 years is short term - I tend to see things a little differently as a result.
Year on year GDP fluctuations is vaguely interesting but not concerning either way. I thought you did pension type investments don't you think over those sorts of terms too?
not really you could answer his charge that you are a hypocrite and explain the statements you made and explain why you are not. Alternatively you can pretend you dont accept the faultless logic and weakly troll and obfuscate to the undeniable evidence, before your eyes, of your own hypocrisy.Oh a derail - what fun
Its not even debatable is it hence we have this charade.
Why is it obvious a deal with US or Japan would be a bad one ? They won't ask for a budget contribution (EU is unique in asking for money), they won't ask for freedom of movement or expect their courts to tell us which criminals we can or cannot deport.
So what would they ask in return?
We could offer them tariff free sales of cars, but since our currency has been devalued that would probably not even offset that. So what do we make that they want that they can cut tariffs on?
So GDP will have to collapse by 5% in the next 12 months to match Gideon's / HMT's Project Armageddon predictions.
https://order-order.com/2017/07/26/5-gdp-in-next-12-months-needed-to-meet-treasury-predictions/
Nah. The start point has been displaced that's all. 😉
You don't want to believe everything you read Jamba.
And if you do, read it very carefully. Including all the assumptions and caveats. Which that link doesn't give you does it?
Remember economists do rational modelling and people aren't rational - at least in the short term.
Marketeers are better for short term predictions than economists I'd say.
Longer term, relative to a counter factual that may itself move, they ain't to bad.
That said some of the other numbers in that link aren't far off are they?
You don't want to believe everything you read Jamba
He seems to believe everything he reads that he wants to believe, and anything that doesn't fit his predetermined opinion is dismissed.
Now, now Jambas you had you fun pre the vote, time to leave the massive abuse of what the forecasts "actually" said to "those who cannot accept the vote."
The forecasts were neve even close to that kind of headline. Hence we had it quoted above
@mike Corbyn said he would "deal with" outstanding student debt as it was unfair that large numbers if students would have debts whilst under Labour new students would pay nothing. His intention was blatantly clear, to me and thousands of current and ex students.
What did he write it on a bus?
Anyway he didn't win the election so he can't implement his policy and now all students are screwed over. Nice way to go for most on here who had a free uni education.
Anyway still not come back to do the maths questions where you take more away but have more to spend.
How would you suggest describing someone who criticises others for doing what he does himself?
A forumite? 🙂
CBA reading all the squabbling on here, so it might have been done, if so my apologies. But I was wondering if jamba would like to remind us what Labour's policy on Brexit is?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40726213
Confused?
Flexible?
Incoherent?
Intentionally vague - let's hope the voters are not smart enough to notice
(Greetings from the train IGM!)
In certain situations, those words are political synonyms.
(Not on the train today, so there'll be less posting from me.)
You don't want to believe everything you read Jamba
He seems to believe everything he reads that he wants to believe, and anything that doesn't fit his predetermined opinion is dismissed.
TBF, i'm sure we're all guilty of that to a certain extent, if we're prepared to admit it or not.
The overwhelming majority of labour voters were remainers. Seems Jezza is marching off in his own direction again, irrespective of anyone else's views
Binnerrs without this position / manifesto Labour would have been crushed at the GE. See what @tmh says above - spot on about moving the GE away from Brexit
not sure what your point is? labour did their best to campaign on the ground on which they were strongest? well, duh.
Corbyn will Corbyn until the Labour Party sees the chance for power by stopping/limiting/stringing out Brexit.
hmm. corbyn's party don't have the stomach from brexit. corbyn might but that may well be irrelevant.
may's problem is that the majority of tory members want brexit, and even if may went, another post turtle would go up in her place to see through what the swivel-eyed loons want.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-government-eu-migration-impact-september-2018-amber-rudd-home-secretary-a7862201.html ]Still getting the piano up the stairs ok?[/url]
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Ms Rudd this week said that the flow of EU workers will continue for an “implementation period” after Brexit
Are Amber Rudd and Brandon Lewis disagreeing with each other then?
I heard BL say there would be no transition period.
As with everything else, just remember Michel Barnier's description of where the UK negotiating team are
"no coherent position'
As summarised by [url= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/27/hardliners-soft-brexit-tough-negotiate-properly ]Simon Jenkins[/url] in todays Guardian
[i]At last the fog is starting to clear around Britain’s Brexit negotiating position. The cloud is lifting, and we can see what lies beyond. It is nothing. There is no negotiating position. There is just an unbridgeable gap between idea and practicality. [/i]
shock horror, is this a surprise to anyone? Racists have been given free reign.
And more evidence for the way the UK is split, forward and backward, remainers and brexiteers.
I guess if you do the same for hanging you will get a similar split.
Sat in a US B&B the other day chatting with this American guy and his wife, he was telling me he thought leaving the E.U would be good for us etc. Okay.
He left the room saying you only you only need two things in life - "Guns n' Jesus."
From Waco, Texas.
So the government are commissioning a study into migration.
Given it will be largely based on previous studies, there's a good chance it will say migration from the EEA is generally positive, while other immigration is less so. Based on tonight's PM.
Also it will say the effect on wages is three times smaller than the inflationary erosion of wages caused by Brexit.
Don't argue with those statements - they're possible not definite.
But if that is what it says, what then? All hell breaks loose whatever the government do I think.
All going swimmingly then. What's the plan ? are we deporting all illegal immigrants? How are we dealing with all the ex-pats when they get sent home by the EU?
Typical gov response - let's [s]delay this as long as poss[/s] call for a new study
Errr, we know the answers already - and yes they are the opposite to what the Brexshiteers claim
1. Immigrants make a positive net contribution to UK economy
2. Immigrants from the EU make a higher net contribution than non-EU immigrants
What else do we need to know? The colour of their underpants??
Typical gov response - let's delay this as long as poss call for a new study
Why not waste some more A50 time, by doing things that should have been done before.
It has been done before. Many times. We know the answer and hence why rejecting FoM is bonkers
The 4 freedoms are the best, probably the only, bits of the EU that are important
THM - agreed.
But now they are going to have their own study tell them (with 6 months to run) not to stop FoM.
Is this an advanced form of masochism? Are they intending to follow the report's recommendations in the national interest? Or are they as you say bonkers?
(You may not actually have said that, but I liked the flow)
Of course if they can get the [s]public[/s] Mail to accept FoM of Labour, then the other 3 FoMs probably get kept anyway don't they. That can't be the intention can it?
Are we observing brinksmanship or incompetence?
Watching channel 4 news, Michel Barnier hasn't actually used the word omnishambles yet, but I think it's safe to say it's implied.
Binners - new word. 😉
[b]brexishambles[/b] - a situation which makes an omnishambles look preferable
I am being careful with my words in case the under-bridge dwellers are lurking. It must be about feeding time and I'm on the train!
Kept my head down today trying to work out how bad the UK slowdown is actually going to be. About to upset a few with the conclusions 😉
My views on the opposition to FoM and immigration are well known.
Don't worry Hurty. These three have assured us once again that everythings going just fine...
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And who would doubt in their abilities?
THM, careful now, you're sounding like you actually do think brexit is a bad idea.
??
IT is, but I hold a minority view.
IT is, but I hold a minority view
Held.
Now you're not necessarily in the minority. 😉
So now they don't even know how many students are in the country.
The Westminster omnishambles rumbles on.
Remind me who was the Home Secretary that gutted the passport office and border security....
what was your last ban for? over politeness or trolling someone with constant personal attacks?I am being careful with my words in case the under-bridge dwellers are lurking. It must be about feeding time and I'm on the train!
Your ability to see in others that which you fail to see in your self is rather endearing.
Hoping to press the button on two hires tomorrow - an Italian and a ****stani on a visa - hope they can make it and are equally productive.
Better get it all done quickly ...
Just in time for the next election, assuming the EU agree. Obviously to have a transition deal implies transitioning from one environment to another.
transitioning from one transition to another most likely.
It's increasingly sounding like one option is the special-non-member-with-all-obligations-and-privileges-of-member deal that I proposed right at the start. AKA let's pretend we've left and the brexiteers probably won't notice.
transitioning from one transition to another most likely.
The Hotel California Brexit.... hmm
I think the summary, you created this mess, now clean it up.
Love it. "The Irish Sea looks like a natural border. Shall we use that?*"
"Boom" said the DUP
*note - this may not actually have been said - though the DUP do seem to have reacted to it.
[url= https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-long-term-economic-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives ]HM Treasury report[/url] from April 2016. Has it been mentioned here before? I don't recall it.
"The Treasury’s analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models".