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It's beginning to feel a bit:
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😆
Hmmm... what was the tune from that film again?
Self preservation society?
Some of that coming I think. Bad luck if you're in a situation where "look after yourself and devil take the hind most" is a problem for you.
Free movement as part of a transition deal set to stay for another 3-5 years according to the papers.
That won't please the 'I'm not racist but..' types
Doublespeak coming from the brexiter MP on r4 this morning was matched only by her repeated use of hollow slogans
and the banks are going as predicted
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/21/brexit-banking-exodus-theresa-may-morgan-stanley
The Conservative party is reliant upon those in the business community for funding, can you imagine what the atmosphere at a Conservative party fundraiser must be like right now?
There are some dissenting voices e.g. James Dyson, the bloke with the big head and tiny face who owns Wetherspoons and some fascist who owns an insurance company, but the wider business and finance community are highly critical of a hard brexit, which is looking increasingly lightly judging by David Davis' conduct at negotiations.
So there was 9 months delay in triggering article 50, 2 years negotiation, then 5 years transition.
That's nearly 8 more years of freedom of movement that most Brexiteers so desperately wanted to halt.
I struggle to see how anyone, remain or leave, can be happy with the outcome of this referendum.
By that time, most of the people who voted leave will have died.
Will transition be 5?
would be hard sell after Mays 'No Deal' fantasy for the deluded
lower value of £ and slower growth means that we will be a less attractive place to come to (and more people will want to leave) anyway, so numbers will probably go down.
No deal is still possible, only because the Tory posturing has backed them into a corner
The tories are terrified of Corbyn getting in and surely no deal would destroy their credibility as the party of financial sense
So the government are looking to publish their strategy for what is going to happen post Brexit for aviation pretty much at the same time as it needs to happen... So probably 12 months after the airlines will have implemented their own strategies to ensure they have business continuity.. Lucky we are ahead of the game 😕 😥
At what point does a shambles officially become a fiasco?
Or is it the other way around?
I'm just brushing up on my terminology in readiness.
What they fail to say in that article, Kimbers, is that people who currently fly via the UK to other European destinations will need a passport raéther than just an ID card. That means there will be more demand on routes through European hubs rather than the UK.
That means there will be more demand on routes through European hubs rather than the UK.
Think that will go down with the residents near Heathrow, no demand so no point building a new runway.
[url= https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-america-confirms-dublin-as-location-for-its-eu-hub-1.3162670 ]https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-america-confirms-dublin-as-location-for-its-eu-hub-1.3162670[/url]
The trickle keeps on flowing, getting faster and faster.
We're only really seeing financial and airlines so far.
But that's because it's easy for them to move.
Bricks and mortar businesses will probably follow given time.
Bricks and mortar businesses will probably follow given time.
The next ones to watch IMO will be manufacturers. It is very easy to relocate a production line, but it only really makes sense when you come to a break point. i.e. launch a new model.
Where are the bexshitters now? all those doom and gloom predictions are coming true
Agreed mrmo
On the first 20 pages, TJ. Very few have posted anything on the thread since posting "out" and an increasing number no longer post on STW at all. I know there's a turnover on any forum but some notables have gone.
The issue that dividied STW to the point those on wrong side felt uncompfortable and left?
Nah reckon there will be a wave of tax breaks for business, to try and keep em, not that our deficit can afford to loose more revenue...
Airbus tho, I could we'll see them leaving, BAE already missed out on the new eurofighter.
As said just investment in new mdels that will suffer so it'll be drip, drip rather than a flood of mfrs departing.
Even give admitting will keep FOM for transition , assuming we get a deal !
Warning new slogan alert
Green Brexit
to go with the 'red white and blue one' maybe.
I think the farmers are about to be stitched up,under the guise of brexit being good for environment.
[quote=Edukator ]The issue that dividied STW to the point those on wrong side felt uncompfortable and left?
STWexit
I think the farmers are about to be stitched up,under the guise of brexit being good for environment.
No way. If my willing to bet that not one green thing happens due to brexshit.
I don't post on here any more (qned) as I was so pissed off with chewkw and his crap (and posted a few things to that effect).
Got a warning or two and decided that enough was enough.
Woppit could get away with being offensive but I couldn't.
Don't think I was a 'big hitter'!
Progress - some of the nutters are now realising that a transition period is inevitable
Small steps...
Too bloody little, too bloody late.
The sane thing to do is to jump off a cliff.
Oh, wait...
'tis funny chewy don't annoy me - its such utter drivel and clearly not meant seriously. Its the unpleasant right wing trolls that get to me but the blacklist add on is your friend
Don't think there was a blacklist thing when I left...
Doesn't really matter anyway. Spouting drivel to wind people up about something which is going to ruin a lot of lives is a stupidly shite thing to do.
I was wondering if CFH was still around, but perhaps he's gone too.
cfh is still around. the blocking thing is not an stw approved thingy - somone on here wrote it.
Progress - some of the nutters are now realising that a transition period is inevitable
Cabinet all backing this approach… they claim… for now.
Good news. Reality starts soon I hope.
You heard it here first kelvin 😉
(much better than wallowing in the darkness)
wonder what this says about the people who chose the pieces?
much better than wallowing in the darkness
Nah I'm still here
I think having young kids really makes it hard to let go,
Ain't just the young kids who will suffer. It's all of us.
I can't see a decent future for anyone except the very rich.
The issue that dividied STW to the point those on wrong side felt uncompfortable and left?
Not really, they won, who would want to hang out on a thread with a bunch of losers. This thread is just like the guys wandering along Oxford St with placards saying the "the end is nigh".
tjagain - MemberWhere are the brexshitters now?
Swear at them a bit more, they might show up! 😀
Its the unpleasant right wing trolls that get to me
😆
Top quality.
mefty / sbob
All the predictions that we remainers said would come true and the leavers said were nonsense - guess what - its all coming true.
So where is the evidence of " they need us more than we need them" ?
I doubt any will be able to provide serious/reasoned answers. They know there is no plan and very little to be optimistic about as the EU keeps the pressure on.
mefty, what have you "won", that really is he question.
No one wants to admit they were wrong
See also Cranberry repeatedly bragging about how he became a labour member so he could vote for Corbyn as it would destroy their chances at an election...... Doesn't post on the Corbyn thread any more...
As we are all 250quid out of pocket thanks to referendum induced inflation and jobs are starting to leave the city, growth has slowed, investment is down, wages squeezed, Leavers just have their 'sovereignity' bobbins to cling to.
Well we can keep avoiding the truth if we want to, but that doesn't take away the fact that much of what remainers/our side said has not proven true - the more catastrophic predictions (including those made by forumites who either didn't understanding the predictions or were deliberately misusing them to bully those who had differening views) have simply not happened. The economy proved surprisingly resilient in the immediate aftermath and has followed much of the same predictable trends that one would expect at this point in a mature economiccycle. The surprise has been the strength of the consumer. The one downside that I predicted at the time ie, that fall in £ would lead to inflation and pressure on real wages has been correct and has been a negative, true. So at best we have a mixed bag on the economy and £ aside nothing out-of-the-ordinary.
On Brexshit itself, the EU despite, I would imagine beng exasperated by our approach, have been remarkably conciliatory and have shown a willingness to (1) seek compromise and (2) tackle some of the obvious failings of the € zone. Chapeau and bonchance Macron! You have a very big job ahead - not least some proper austerity and labour reforms in France!!!
On top of that, as noted above, even the nutters on our side are now moving towards the obvious conclusion of a length transition period.
So the remoaners and antii-democrats should have a long, sober look in the mirror. Lying to bully/supress those with differing views is very unattractive. We lost, get over it, move on and deal what is in front of us, not what we would like to see in front of us. Brexshit is going to happen...albeit in (hopefully) a much watered down and delayed fashion.
Mefty - well said, sir!
Well I'm just enjoying Brexit disintegrating.
I'm all right so it's fun to watch.
Money on the Brexies screaming loudest.
It was never going to happen along the lines that either side set out at the start since both sides' positions were inconsistent with reality/truth. That was obvious. We are going through the noisy first stages now where this simply becomes accepted and people move on to the real issues and where and how to compromise and seek agreement.
Steady as she goes..... 😉
Glad £ been stronger against the $ meanwhile, must buy some $ above 1.30
Jeez, what a load of bollocks thm. Your predictions on the Scottish Indie thread haven't come true either 😉
Talking about predictions not coming true, they are but a mere trifle compared to the brexshit, ahem, predictions. £350 million a week for the NHS, taking back control and controlling immigration.
Let he who is without sin and all that...
Meanwhile on the great nation state Titanic let's all get the deckchairs out and listen to a rousing Britannia Rules The Waves while we glide presently to the bottom...
PS THM can you turn back on your autocorrect, your spelling is being to make you look like yer old mucker Jamby...
Anybody got a fiddle?
Thanks for commenting on the result of my failing eyesight so classily - a downside of maturity I'm afraid! ! Yes the typing is bad...accepted, but the screen is too small too. 😉
You play the melody, the rest can carry on making sense of what is happening and preparing for the consequences. Your choice.
BTW, I like the way that you were able to falsify my points specifically, Bravo!
Its worse than that ThM, I was blatant accusing you of being an alt Jamby login 😆 and to be accurate the [i]typing[/i] is fine, it's the [i]spelling [/i]that's shite 😉
I see you missed a stout defence of the brexiteers promises too (if you're playing that game).
And which points? The point I was making is like Scotland and the U.K., we've not left Europe yet.... hence predictions are still that, predictions...
Must admit i am with IGM just sitting back and laughing at the whole * up - i no longer give a *, karma is/will deliver its natural justice.
I no longer engage in debate in my local pub, i just now point out the obvious and wander off.
I used to be a kind of socialist, but the working poor/ daily mail pensioners who voted need some "hard rain"
My family/business bunker is nearly finished- and the door will be shut...
Not taken a look at this thread for awhile - was hoping there wasn't the same few Remoaners scaring/winding each other up as previously, and some interesting points of debates were being discussed.
But sadly it's as daft and predictable as before.
Mefty called it right.
Its because the brexshitters fantasies are now being shown to be just that , that we don't see them on here anymore.
Metalhuty 😉 wold luv to staye nd ply but tnneiss beckonns instaed
Nae problem Andy, er, THM 😆
Blind faith is all you need to suceed, just look at history we won WW1 only cost a million dead?
Thatchers industrial stategy only cost a couple of million job's
The real question is how much will brexit cost (not the divorce bill) in jobs and livelihoods?
The bottom end of society always pays the bill and never gets the dividend.
Seems to me that all the brexies are flouncing off as reality hits home....
It's not just Brexies though, all the Tory supporters, who have been for a decade telling us that they represent the party of fiscal responsibility are now the party of financial self harm & political ineptitude.
The Tories own Brexit, from start to finish.
So us remoaners reminding them just how foolish Cameron, Osborne, Johnson, Davis, and of course strong & stable May have been shown to be is best silenced.
I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one who thinks that the Brexiteers of STW are keeping a low profile....
Maybe, just maybe, some sort of common sense will prevail & we can rescue something viable from those whole fing debacle.....
As i have said before the Tory party is dying out and Brexit is the last throes, younger back bench Tories are past themselves with despair and most of them are remainers
Kimbers - making this a party/one party issue is just another example of how remoaners are doing themselves no favours
Indeed THM, but it must be admitted that it was the Tories who held the referendum.
It is, however a problem that can only be resolved by cross party consensus, as the result showed it was a very mixed demographic that voted both yes & no,
Denying otherwise is an attempt to whitewash & ignore the strife in the UK & to paint the Tories as the villains of the whole price. A stick to beat them with as it were..
Well the Tories always do themselves in over EU, so that is a given.
I don't blame them for calling a referendum nor do I blame them for "officially" campaigning to remain. I just wish they/we had done a better job at explain why the deal we had was much, much better than the alternatives (either way)
Yes, the UK is very spilt on the issue, that is another given, and it is reflected in the fact that the two major parries are also riven apart here too. It's a very divisive issue not helped though by people simply trying to bullly others into submission/staying away from threads like this.
tjagain - Membermefty / sbob
All the predictions that we remainers said would come true and the leavers said were nonsense - guess what - its all coming true.
No it isn't.
Certainly not to the degree that people suggested.
Not yet...
mooman - MemberNot taken a look at this thread for awhile - was hoping there wasn't the same few Remoaners scaring/winding each other up as previously, and some interesting points of debates were being discussed.
😆
The last time I tried to illicit some constructive criticism of the EU on this thread, I got four words.
The protagonists are far more interested in simply winning the argument.
I don't blame [the Tories] for calling a referendum
Well, maybe you should, since without the referendum - totally unnecessary and designed only to spike the guns of the right wing of the party - we would not be in this shit.
Well the Tories always do themselves in over EU, so that is a given.
And now they've done in the rest of us too.
"we got it right" ....let's see if the BoE has the same false sense of self confidence....
6. In that context, I would like to discuss two main points. The first is backward-looking, and relates to the economy's recent marked outperformance compared to expectations just after the Brexit vote.........I’ll start with the first of those points: the economy’s recent – and welcome – resilience. In the August 2016 IR, just after the Brexit vote, the MPC forecast that the economy would slow markedly, with quarterly growth close to zero in H2 2016 and early 2017. The BoE was not alone in expecting weaker growth: the IMF and OECD made similar forecasts, and in general the consensus was slightly gloomier than the BoE (see figure 1)1. [b]In practice, growth has remained solid. Indeed, on the current vintage of the ONS data, quarterly GDP growth in H2 2016 was slightly stronger than H1. Compared to the BoE’s forecasts from last August, the economy’s outperformance in H2 2016 was spread widely across consumer spending, housing and business investment. [/b]Exports and imports both did better than expected, but net trade overall was less supportive than forecast last August (see figure 2). In terms of contributions to QoQ GDP growth in H2 2016, the upside in business and housing investment combined was worth slightly more than the upside in consumer spending. Real wages turned out slightly softer than expected, with slightly higher inflation and lower pay growth than forecast. Household savings have fallen more than expected.
Still want to claim that it a load of bollocks MH?
(Rog not Andy by the way!!)
The last time I tried to illicit some constructive criticism of the EU on this threa
Let's hear it. Genuinely.
TBH I've heard little that actually stands up to scrutiny.
I've heard a lot of made-up & wishful thinking mind..
Little of which is based on fact & been born out by events.
sbob - Member
tjagain - Member
mefty / sbobAll the predictions that we remainers said would come true and the leavers said were nonsense - guess what - its all coming true.
No it isn't.
Certainly not to the degree that people suggested.
Not yet...
Errmmm - yes it is and you may notice we haven't actually left yet. But the flight of financial services has started, the £ has dropped, the ludicrous impossibility of the claims the leavers made are being exposed etc etc - and this is only the beggining.
The problem is TMH the markets maybe doing well but the man on the street isn't fairing so well.
Value of the £ down, prices up, wages stagnating.
It's a select few who can look at the market & go "yep, it's all good...."
It's based/centred around a fundamentally flawed concept - a fixed exchange rate across a region that does not fulfil the criteria for such a structure. Flawed in design and execution.
Hence we HAD a food deal. Access to the good bits but nothing to do with the nonsense bits.
Edukator - Reformed TrollWhat they fail to say in that article, Kimbers, is that people who currently fly via the UK to other European destinations will need a passport rather than just an ID card. That means there will be more demand on routes through European hubs rather than the UK.
Know a lot of international travellers without passports Edukator?
😆
I think the Euro could have worked, to an extent it seems to be recovering as well..
However, I do think the EU grew faster than it should have & moved to include countries who should not have been allowed to join.
A 2 tier system would have been better with progression to full membership upon achieving certain requirements.
Continental peace & unity is a wonderful concept - it's just not been very well executed. Well, the peace has bit the unity has been a struggle at times..
Good job no one is saying that - have a look at the BoE extract, I even highlighted the important bits too.
Nothing to do with the markets - thats QE (stealing) not Brexshit
Edit, no the euro was flawed in design and hence from the start.
tjagain - MemberErrmmm - yes it is
Rubbish.
The economy hasn't come anywhere close to taking the hit that was predicted.
You know this.
I read it - but you will hear the Brexit brigade trumpeting its all going to be ok despite a slew of data suggesting otherwise. That's my point. There's NO data suggesting it's going all swimmingly - quite the opposite.
Plus there doesn't seem to be a sector yet who aren't making plans to get out of the UK & find a base in the EU.
The cake & eat idea is proving to total BS.
How many more retractions can we expect next week? How many more Brexit promises are going to be broken?
It's a bloody omnishambles!
sbob...
Going on your hols this year?
Don't expect much for your £ if you're after a €....
£1 = 0.88c.
I call that pretty fing bad....
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/21/britons-travelling-to-europe-offered-just-88-euro-cents-to-the-pound ]Graun[/url]
No it's not "quite the opposite" - quite the contrary and you/we should be brave enough to admit it.
sbob, been here long???
That analysis of UK growth ignore previous patterns and forgets that the Brexit vote was in June and the UK is stil in the EU. Growth is often slower in the first half than the second half.
Reactions to events are never immediate because budgets are voted and commitments made. H2 2017 is the first period for which companies will have factored in a posible/probable Brexit and planned accordingly.
Businesses are also enjoying the competitive devaluation export honeymoon when they are running on stocks of materials paid for with a strong currency whilst recieving payments in Euros that are worth more. The honeymoon will be over by 2018 and th ehigher costof imorts will be biting at the same time as the divorce needs paying for (unless Relate reconcile EU and UK).
We'll renew the GDP debate in 2018, THM.
mrlebowski - Membersbob...
Going on your hols this year?
Don't expect much for your £ if you're after a €....
£1 = 0.88c.
I'll pay you 90c. 😉
We're once again the sick man of Europe.
ED, The economy is slowing now for many factors - some Brexshit, some not. But blaming every bad data point on Brexshit is as bad as Brexhsitters blaming every bad thing on the EU. Both are Bllx.
Don't follow the Brexshiteers, thats embarasing. Better to stick to the facts.
Sick man of Europe - Simply not true.
Migrants and Greece are the two that spring to mind.
Greece should never have been in the Euro, tax base, fiddling etc. and the failure to come up with a permanent solution. Currently it is simply stop gap after stop gap.
As for Migration, it is a mess and not really sure what the answer is, it won't get better though. If the climate models are to be believed it is going to get far worse as people flee the uninhabitable ( i.e. unfarmable) areas looking for food, work, etc.
Generally though standardisation, cross border trade and commerce, travel, are its pluses.
The idea that running away is going to help solve the UKs problems is laughable, the UKs problems are the UKs, they were created here and Brexit simply gives the idiots more power.
THM from your extract consumer spending holding up, savings going down. Wages softer than expected.
So what happens when the savings run out?