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The convergence trade was profitable for many years, but it relies on you getting repaid and many of the banks got caught holding the baby because they couldn't wean themselves off the trade - result they lost money. Read the paper, don't rely on newspapers and documentaries, anyone who has worked in wholesale finance knows how incredibly naive financial journalists are.
Busting the BS that inequality has been falling
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Busting the BS that inequality has been falling
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https://www.ft.com/content/d85a3696-f2bb-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608
I see the fishermen are looking likely to be sold down the river.
We all are!
Some time you have to look at yourself and take responsibility (although much easier to blame Theresa May obviously. )
If a Pole can come across Europe and get a job, why is someone from Ebbw Vale unable to?
As i see it the simple fact is that it is easier to blame them to look at your self and ask what you can do to fix your situation. If you pissed around at school and came out with nothing, you are going to reap the rewards of your efforts.
There were options such as going to Germany to find work, but obviously too much effort for many. Then again if unemployment is c5% not much need to export workers.
As for the fishermen, WTF did they expect, international waters, international trade,
http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_fish_stocks.htm
Or are we leaving the UN next to reclaim sovereignty? Shortly followed by the WTO because obviously we can't accept foreigners telling us what to do....
As for the fishermen, WTF did they expect, international waters, international trade
Sadly, they expected what Farage et al told them, that we'd regain control of British Waters and that would miraculously save a failing industry.
The [post-] truth hurts
Just got told that the only reason London voted to remain is that there are more foreigners living there than english people 😯
Read the paper, don't rely on newspapers and documentaries, anyone who has worked in wholesale finance knows how incredibly naive financial journalists are.
Anyone who has followed any of these banking losses sagas also knows that everything the banks say must be assumed to be a fraction of the truth and the banks are willing to blame everyone including their own personnel rather than admit they were gambling with other people's money. And even when they've won over all they still go pleading to the IMF and ECB for money to cover the losses incurred in one small part of their business in a field where "25%" interest tells even the most naive man on the street it must be high risk - unless you're a bank too big to be allowed to fail and can claim your losses back from the IMF and ECB.
Banks such as Credit Agricole danced and sang about Greece when they were doing very nicely in the bonds market thanks to risk spreading across many markets but very badly in other areas due to inconsiderate risk taking. They lost a fortune in sub-prime, significant sums in consumer credit and then packaged up their various debts into a holding which included a Greek holding, separated that from the profitable parts of the holding and then conveniently sold it for a euro and went begging for money from the IMF and Europe. All as clear as mud, morally dubious whether legal or illegal but we'll never know. We just get fed the news they want us to hear and have to second guess what they are doing behind closed doors.
My heart bleeds for the poor fishermen.
Anyone who has followed any of these banking losses sagas also knows that everything the banks say must be assumed to be a fraction of the truth
Which is why I linked a forensic academic paper, it just doesn't say what you want it to say.
Greece never issued any government paper with a 25% interest rate, the theoretical yield to maturity may have been that high for certain buyers in the secondary market, but that was because the market was pricing in the default risk.
I haven't looked at Credit Agricole in particular, but if you want to find the truth just follow the paperwork it will be there, just don't rely on journalists to do it as they often don't have the requisite knowledge.
thecaptain - Member
My heart bleeds for the poor fishermen.
I'm picturing you as an evil Captain Birdseye now.
Love it Pigface. We should never have given foreigners the vote...
As i see it the simple fact is that it is easier to blame them to look at your self and ask what you can do to fix your situation. If you pissed around at school and came out with nothing, you are going to reap the rewards of your efforts.
Or if your school was shite and uninspiring and those who struggle with mainstream school are abandoned to the scrap heap, perhaps?
Did not see Phillpott, will try and watch on catchup some how. I am no great fan of Le Pen but she is at least discussing issues people want to be addressed and is offering to try and fix what people think is broken. Other oarties won't discuss and are offering no solution. As Farrage said in the EU Parliament the "high priests" of the EU persist with theor "solution" of more Europe/EU powers when voters want much much less.
We've discussed Greece at length (with great passion) on another thread. Banks lost 60%. The EU/IMF/eurozone took over as the banks amd other creditrosmwould have nailed Greece to tje wall in afar worse way than they are suffering today. Also (vitally) a Greek default in 2010 would have lead to a run of Italy amd Spain and almost certainly the end of the euro back then.
IMO most of the profits booked on sub-prime etc in the "good years" are small compared to the losses in 2007 onwards.
@cody thanks for taking the time to out those views accross. I don't agree with a lot of it but what I do agree with is that the Tories are looking to dominate the centre ground and that includes duplicating some Milliband proposals. Laboir/Corbyn felt Milliband wasn't keft enough so he's taken the party further left and the centre ground is wide open.
IMO one reason Eastern Europeans are prepared to do jobs Brits are not is they see them as temporary, they live simply (eg house sharing) amd send money home where the cost of living is much lower. Also they will work for low wages as they benefit from full year tax allowances and many just stay for short periods.
you'll forgive me for not setting much store by what that lying shit says when he does deign to turn up to his day job. 🙄As Farrage said in the EU Parliament
I don't really get why you keep banging on about youth unemployment either. if you look at the figures germany and france's numbers are very similar to ours, and ours are probably artificially low as you can't be counted as unemployed if you don't draw benefit, and it's difficult for youngsters to draw benefit.
the countries that don't don't have good employment figures don't have good youth employment numbers. not much of a mystery there? what is the point you are trying to make? or is it just another 'as i've said many times, IMO' thing you can trot out to point out that the EU doesn't work?
The (mis)point is to confuse the EU and Euro Zone.
By design the only way that economies with high unit labour costs/low productivity can adjust in a fixed exchange rate system is through wage deflation and/or unemployment. We have merely seen theory being played out in practice
Nothing to do with EU a lot to do with EZ
IMO one reason Eastern Europeans are prepared to do jobs Brits are not is they see them as temporary, they live simply (eg house sharing) amd send money home where the cost of living is much lower
A very good reason why we should never have let cost of housing get so far out of control - it makes indigenous workers more expensive to employ as they need a much higher salary just to survive. I notice the anti-immigration, pro-high-house-prices Tories have forgotten to mention that...
Listening to some of the Brexiteers I work with grasping hold of random bits of data to prove they were right all along (who in theory are working in a strategy role, using data and facts to decide what direction we should go in 😯 ), I think this quote is particularly apt:
“Only stupid people don’t change their minds.” — Boutros Boutros-Ghali
The [url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect ]Dunning Kruger Effect[/url] is particularly relevant too
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/opinion/theresa-mays-empire-of-the-mind.html
This is evident in Mrs. May’s rhetoric. Her Brexit speech, for instance, invited us to imagine the “Global Britain” that will somehow emerge once the country has left the European Union, its citizens “instinctively” looking, as she has claimed the British do, to expand their horizons beyond Europe and exploit opportunities across the world. This is simply a sanitized version of the dream of a British Empire in which every eastern and southern corner of the globe could be imagined as an Englishman’s rightful backyard, ready for him to stride into, whenever he so chose, to impose his will and make his fortune.
IMO one reason Eastern Europeans are prepared to do jobs Brits are not is they see them as temporary, they live simply (eg house sharing)
It's almost as if you don't know any young British workers; Do you think they all own their own house, and have what they consider to be permanent jobs?
Do you think the current batch of price rises (Apple Mac, Sonos, now Microsoft) are likely to make people change their mind more than all the arguing about big words? Poor exchange rate when you go on holiday over to Europe is going to make people's ears prick up?
yourguitarhero - Member
Do you think the current batch of price rises (Apple Mac, Sonos, now Microsoft) are likely to make people change their mind more than all the arguing about big words? Poor exchange rate when you go on holiday over to Europe is going to make people's ears prick up?
No
looking at the numbers a great many people who voted for brexit arent the type that have a multi room sonos setup- the old and poorly educated are more worried about their access to local services being destroyed (obviously brexit will fix none of that,no matter how much the vote leave brexiteer millionaires lie about it)
Do you think the current batch of price rises (Apple Mac, Sonos, now Microsoft) are likely to make people change their mind more than all the arguing about big words? Poor exchange rate when you go on holiday over to Europe is going to make people's ears prick up?
Not a chance,
What will hit them is food and fuel, whether they link those to Brexit is a separate discussion. You can blame OPEC for fuel for example, which is valid, just OPEC cutting production AND Brexit will ramp fuel prices.
http://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time
How high it goes is anyones guess.
From the DIT's twitter feed:
UK gov welcomes EU vote to ratify #CETA trade deal with #Canada. We’ll help British business take advantage of the benefits this will bring
I'm sure there's a suitable facepalm picture somewhere - ah here it is.
[url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2484/32558844910_5ce70887ee.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2484/32558844910_5ce70887ee.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/RB7Ag1 ]facepalm[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/82598458@N05/ ]jamesanderson2010[/url], on Flickr
UK gov welcomes EU vote to ratify #CETA trade deal with #Canada. We’ll help British business take advantage of the benefits this will bring
Really couldn't make it up!
And if Brexit wasn't bad enough, it also brings Blair back onto the political scene.
In his dreams...
...I think one over-faked tanned purveyor of untruths is quie enough to be going on with for now.
Plus he's too late!
Getting ready for next GE.
Imagine the amount of work required to deal with 27 other countries separately..
Oh dear I don't really want Blair on my side. My you he is ideally qualified for this post-truth era.
Trivial and quick for UK and Canada to mirror Canada / EU deal if we chose plus we'll get whatever benefits may accrue in fhe next two years
Remainers must see how desperate their situation is when Tony Blair is the leading political figure champioing fheir cause. He's certainly a person capable of uniting everyone, against him.
Tony your signature on the Lisbon Treay and EU expansion are two of the prime causes of Brexit. We rejected you in the strongest possible terms.
Imagine the amount of work required to deal with 27 other countries separately..
Most are not worth bothering with in economic terms and most certainly are not a priority. The EU is fixated about boasting about size, classic "never mind the quality feel the width" remarks. Banks used to makesimilar boasts about balance sheet size.
Remainers must see how desperate their situation is when Tony Blair is the leading political figure champioing fheir cause
That's a disgraceful slur. Trying to manipulate opinions by associating them with an unpopular figure? Are you Donald bloody Trump or something?
I voted remain for my own reasons, I don't give a flying shit what Blair thinks.
Have a word with yourself! Absoutely piss poor behaviour!
Most are not worth bothering with in economic terms
Even we only bothered with France, Germany, Spain, Italy, that's still 4x the work.
jambalaya - Member - Block User - Quote
Trivial and quick for UK and Canada to mirror Canada / EU deal if we chose
I've just had an amazing idea for a quiz game show
"Jamba or Trump?"
Contestants are shown a series of quotes and they have to decide if they were uttered by Jambayala or Donald Trump
Whoever gets the most answers right gets their house repossessed and their pension slashed by 20%
Hmm that's interesting.. question for those who know about pensions - maybe Jam if he can be trusted to give a proper answer:
If my pension is being invested in overseas funds, does that means it's in foreign currency? Has the £ value of my pension pot gone up?
The high stock market should have made pension pots go up.
Yes
We rejected you in the strongest possible terms.
Maths not your strong suit then .
It was a result so close than even Farage accepted it would not be over - though of course he was assuming he lost that closely rather than won in the strongest possible terms- FFS that is just BS
You are right that having Blair on your side is not something anyone can be happy about that. That said look who you have on your side so we can at least take comfort form the fact we are not in agreement with racists, fascists and the far right unlike your good self.
We rejected you in the strongest possible terms.
Whose the 'we'. Is that Jambalaya's royal we.
We rejected you in the strongest possible terms.
Whose the 'we'. Is that Jambalaya's royal we.
Trivial and quick for UK and Canada to mirror Canada / EU deal if we chose plus we'll get whatever benefits may accrue in fhe next two years
Do you think Canada might want to be consulted on this? You and your 'we' again.
Rejoice, remainers, your prince has come!
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How blair does not realise he is toxic and harms any cause he believes in is beyond me....he would do more good coming out as full on Brexit
How blair does not realise he is toxic and harms any cause he believes in is beyond me...
He might realise that he is, sat back waiting for others to state the obvious… after months of near silence from those that know our current path is a damaging waste of time and effort, and our MPs rolling over and giving May a blank cheque to proceed in any fashion she sees fit… decides now that someone needs to step forward, popular or not.
He might realise that he is, sat back waiting for others to state the obvious… after months of near silence from those that know our current path is a damaging waste of time and effort, and our MPs rolling over and giving May a blank cheque to proceed in any fashion she sees fit… decides now that someone needs to step forward, popular or not.
This^^^^^
I loath Blair, but at least the option of not going ahead with a hard Brexit is on the news again, and perhaps some form of 'opposition' to May since Labour don't seem willing.
Who's going ahead with a hard Brexshit?
Clean Brexit? Whatever you call it, makes no odds. We all know what he means.
No we don't - May has stated that there is not such thing, so how can she be negotiating it?
> sigh <
Whoever is Tory PM speaks the truth to you. Such a fan boy.
>sigh< 2x
Fine, if you want to abide in the land of ignorance and alternative facts then feel free, Meanwhile, the rest of us can deal with the actual facts. You decide.
But you are correct. In this case the Tory PM is being more truthful than you are, so yes, I will take her side here. Why would I side with untruths??
"we" have voted out on the basis of certainty issues. These complicate our choices on how we intend to negotiate on-going access to the single market. May is currently looking for a bespoke deal between options 2 and 3, neither of which can be mis-labelled hard Brexshit. Of course, whether we get what we want is the subject of.....
....a "negotiation"
May has stated that there is not such thing
Trying to set the political agenda by ignoring the language your opponents use to describe possible situations, is old hat. Keep it up and copy the PMs language though if you feel it's useful.
Hard Brexit, Clean Brexit, Clean Break… call it whatever your want, decide that's the path we're on if you want… but if others think it looks like we're on that path, and want to use their own term for it, you can't stop them.
You can use whatever term you want and on this tread you have demonstrated a strong propensity to use inaccurate ones. That is your choice.
Fortunately the Tory PM is being more accurate and frankly given your relative positions, that is more important right now.
EDIT: so pleased you wrote that whilst I was busy reading the PMS speech transcript on Brexit
That has really made my day hurty
BRILLIANT
These complicate our choices on how we intend to negotiate on-going access to the single market.
But I want to be clear. What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the Single Market.
From the PM's speech its a direct quote and you moan about alt facts and lecture us on reality OH THE IRONY
Now Mr snake oil salesman what do you have to say now?
😀
QED.
You see kelvin, there are lots of examples of how using inaccurate language makes it very difficult for people to understand what is going on. You are not alone.
Another nail in the coffin for using referendums
P.s. hope mefty wasn't watching Barrrrrrrroneess Chakrabati using the terms referenda last night!
I think we can all clearly see what is going on and your air of superiority has crumbled due to the use of actual facts hence you played the man and not the argument as you cannot accept you were wrong despite the obvious evidence.
Its really not that hard to show you for what you are THM
QED,
You see kelvin,,,,,you know the rest.....
You really would need to explain how your claim and what she said are both actually true as they conflict with each other,
you cannot hence we get this instead
You were incorrect deal with it as you see fit but denial is not going to be very convincing
We dont intend to negotiate access to the single market she has said so VERY CLEARLY anythign else is just untrue
QED
I need to read 1984 again I think.
Personally not ready to accept that just because our Leader seeks to control the language we use, that we should obey.
Hard Brexit, Clean Brexit, Clean Break… call it what you will.
Red White & Blue Brexit if your really want to slavishly follow our Leader.
No I posted a much better link than 1984 about 20 pages ago which explains matters quite clearly and why the troll's sad little attacks merely demonstrate a failure to understand the basics of the issues in front of us. Nothing new there and as amusing a self-pawn as always.
But as I said, feel free to use the wrong terminology and continue to get it all mixed up. Your choice.
Going out now, will post the link again in a few hours if necessary. In the meantime, google is your friend...
Stop bloody bickering and let's have a proper discussion. FFS. My kids do this.
Is that a proper FFS? 😉
Hard to have a proper discussion if folk refuse to understand the basics of what is happening.
These complicate our choices on how we intend to negotiate on-going access to the single market.
But I want to be clear. What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the Single Market.
You really would need to explain how your claim and what she said are both actually true as they conflict with each other
Looking at your two quotes: one mentions membership, one mentions access.
The first is for full EU members only, the second comes in many different forms (and May is claiming to be able to negotiate a whole new form of access just for us, but has red lines on FoM and ECJ that will seriously limit the negotiations).
[i][ I have attempted to avoid all THM's trigger words and phrases here… kept my language narrow to get past the police ][/i]
Progress....small steps!!
Looking better mol 😉
refuse to understand
This is a passive aggressive statemnt, the kind of which produces bickering.
Maybe you've not made yourself clear? In a friendly discussion people don't throw barbs around like this, they make sure others have understood. Remember you are talking via text only and it's not easy.
That's all I'm going to say for now.
Yes they provide links that explain things clearly and avoid engaging with trolls. Simple
You can decide why/if people refuse to understand. The issues are not the hard bit. In most cases the desire to use incorrect terms e.g., in the market, hard Brexshit is simply a device to create a false narrative
Plus mol, remember you don't have a shadow! 😉
Would be nice to have a proper debate though granted
You can decide why/if people refuse to understand. The issues are not the hard bit. In most cases the desire to use incorrect terms e.g., in the market, hard Brexshit is simply a device to create a false narrative
I'll bite… there are countries that operate in the single market that are not full members… they have to accept rules, FoM and court jurisdiction though. Hard Brexit (pick your own term if you want) is generally used to mean withdrawing from both the single market and customs union, not just giving up EU membership.
Very true. And we are now in the process of determining what model we want and where we're are prepared to compromise in order to (using May's words) "secure the best access to the single market for Britain."
The "Hard Brexshit" (sic) issue only comes into play if the UK and the EU fail to agree. This is not the intended outcome for both sides and would be extreme folly. But, IIRC, it is then that May has said that the default option would be to fall back on WTO*. That would be the worst of the options available in terms of maximising trade and investment but the best in terms of faking control. I would be unhappy if that was the outcome.
As a supporter of full freedom of movement of people my best outcome would be at the other end of the spectrum of options (EEA). This is not as good as where we are now, but it is better than the alternatives. Unfortunately my views on FoM are in the minority, so I will probably be disappointed in the end. But hey, that's democracy at work for you.
* IIRC, the basis of the SC ruling was that triggering A50 was "irrevocable", one reason why an Act was required, so we cannot go back to the status quo if no deal is agreed - Brexshit means Brexshit 😉 . We have lost the best option for ever once A50 is actually triggered.
Nice to hear Tony giving credence to the Remain camp, if he wasn't a such a warmonger and slightly deranged I reckon he'd get a lot of support. Sadly BoJo started spouting horseshite again, but he is a liar and two faced pitiful gonk so no one believes a word he says.
We should rise against Brexshite, glad to be on the correct side.
and would be extreme folly
So it'll never happen, of course....
Back to practicalities chaps - Vauxhall Nissan European Medicines Agency are all likley to disappear along with 50k direct/indirect jobs - however that's the number of EU migrants who were coming to the UK looking for work - so no problem really- it's all ying and yang (unless your the poor sod whose income halves)
It might if both sides screw up
Chances? IMO <15%
But hey, hope for the best, prepare for the worst is my motto
It is really rather simple the membership vs access thing.
1. Membership of the Single market = paid into the single market access fund and agree to allow free movement of workers..... Includes all EU members, Norway* Iceland* and Switzerland* (*with some exceptions!).
2. Access to the single market = every other country in the world.
How free or easy that access is on a sliding scale from WTO through to Some sort of free trade agreement (TTIP, CETA etc) with anything in between, eg, you import our Whisky without tariffs and we will allow your bananas in tariff free* (*made up example).
So technically May has told the truth. We are giving up 1 and will be left with 2. What 2 looks like is a matter of debate and negotiation.
Indeed it's simple - until you get into the detail. That'a mindnumblingly conplex hence we will need a transitional period too.
If we avoid Brexit will Jamie Oliver open his restaurants again?
THM, "hard brexshit" is the [b]automatic[/b] outcome unless and until we manage to negotiate a new trade deal. Which given how long these things tend to take, and that this won't even start in earnest until the leaving terms are settled (eg: rights for existing residents, divorce bill, Irish border situation, etc etc) may be a long time in the future.
[I]Indeed it's simple - until you get into the detail. That'a mindnumblingly conplex hence we will need a transitional period too. [/I]
Agree, but is the transitional period more important than the actual outcome after it - as both will need to be negotiated (at the same time).
I reckon both the detail AND the transitional period will be [b]mindnumblingly complex[/b]