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@igm there has been much news coverage of that video with makers called out for such a [b]blatant misrepresentation[/b], they've cut off sentences half way through and quoted things massively out of context. When you see the whole clips you realise what a disgraceful video it is.
Andrew Neil (Sunday Politics?) gave the maker a dressing down like I have rarely seem before on TV. Clips on facebook page of the programme I recall.
I seem to remember Boris saying the opposite?
Boros and Gove both said we wouod leave on the Andrew Marr show. Both sides said we'd leave [b]THE[/b] Single Market - Remain used it as a threat, Leave said it was necessary to end freedom of movement and control of ECJ. We voted leave in the full knowledge indeed expectation we would leave [b]THE[/b] single market. The discussion is then what if any trade deal we have instead.
Merkel expressed regret and dissapointment that Trump is cancelling tje Pacific Trade Partnership, she is well aware the US/EU TTIP deal she has supported is dead too.
TMH there is so much more fundamentally wrong with the EU than the euro. However getting the money wrong is fatal on it's own.
Sanity is starting a resurgence ..
Manchester, Oxford St. Shop window, Nov 2016.
[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cx48HmjWgAAE4Oq?format=jpg&name=large [/img]
thm, you seem to think I'm imcapabale of seeing the SNP bullshit. I don't really need your childish snipes to see it clearly. Unlike yourself when it comes to the UKs bullshit.
Except that nobody knows what is going to happen Jambalaya.
Well you say that, but....
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molgrips - MemberI seem to remember Boris saying the opposite?
that's the great thing about changing your mind with the wind and saying whatever is convenient today- whatever way it turns out, whatever turns out to be true, Boris has been there and done that.
He is prepared for whatever happens.
He agrees with everything, even if opposite views.
thm, you seem to think I'm imcapabale of seeing the SNP bullshit.
On the contrary, I know that you can. Its so easy isn't it? I'm just here to help those who can't 😉
So I can put you down with the majority of your countrymen as a NO in a second vote. Progress.
TMH there is so much more fundamentally wrong with the EU than the euro.
Not really. Its is flawed below the waterline by the Euro, agreed. This is a great pity because the rest is very solid and works well and to our enormous benefit in terms of trade and investment and social issues. This is precisely why Brexshiteers have to lie consistently including the five core untruths or focus on irrelevant noise such as the mirage of health tourism. QED
that's the great thing about changing your mind with the wind and saying whatever is convenient today- whatever way it turns out, whatever turns out to be true, wee eck and wee nippy have been there and done that.
FTFY
just to bring that up again ( sorry ). chap on radio 4 yesterday morning was explaining that the ( little ) big problem of nhs tourism was people who had no right of residence ( ie not EU ) coming here, then showing up at a medical entre 4 weeks before due date of pregnancy - ie too late to be allowed to fly. so they can't go back.
mechanisms to prevent that from happening are apparently prohibitively expensive. certainly nothing that brexit will solve.
mechanisms for getting the money back from EU citizens who receive treatment ( as already pointed out ) work, mostly.
[I]that's the great thing about changing your mind with the wind and saying whatever is convenient today- whatever way it turns out, whatever turns out to be true, Boris has been there and done that. [/I]
You know what, I was watching Teresa May at the CBI and absolutely thought this of her - that is "saying what the audience wants to hear".
Looking back, since DC ran away she's pretty much said what she thought everyone wanted to hear, at the time she said it - and I guess she was no different earlier (Goldman Sachs speech), but I've not 'followed' her really before.
Did I just accidentally come into the scottish independence thread, or is this now officially the EU Referendum And Whatever THM Wants To Talk About thread?
NW to understand these individual events we need to understand the wider context - protest and gesture politics, post truth politics and authoiritarian populism. These span the two independence referendums and the US elections and will effect forthcoming EU elections.
They are dangerous trends based on flawed premises. History suggests that the results of these trends can be catastrophic especially when those who feel disenfranchised realise that they are being let down by gesture politics and the group of narcissists that lie behind it.
Northwind - Member
Did I just accidentally come into the scottish independence thread, or is this now officially the EU Referendum And Whatever THM Wants To Talk About thread?
He's just avoiding the subject, cause he knows I'm right about another EU ref! 😆
Only £122 billion pounds black hole. Value for money?
Davies and the brexiters continually undermining May
briefing against her again
Only £122 billion pounds black hole. Value for money?
But Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says: "We expect further upward revisions to the borrowing forecasts in future as growth falls short of the OBR’s expectations and as the Government backslides on the big consolidation planned for 2019/20, just before the next election
The next time a Conservative politician talks about getting the debt under control, direct them to page 14 of the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook.It shows that Britain’s national debt is expected to hit £1.945trn by 2019-20, the end of the current parliament, and continue climbing to £1.952trn by 2021-22.
seeing as the brexit vote was triggered by Camerons inability to handle his own Eurosceptic MPs and the tory press, is it now time to acknowledge that its the Tories who are a disaster for our economy 😀
It is ok Jambalaya is going to tell us it is Corbyn fault.
They are dangerous trends based on flawed premises. History suggests that the results of these trends can be catastrophic especially when those who feel disenfranchised realise that they are being let down by gesture politics and the group of narcissists that lie behind it.
and what happens next when Brexit fails, because it will fail to solve the problems that most expect it to solve.
Which group will be the scapegoat this time?
Which group will be the scapegoat this time?
Go far enough down "their" list and we are all on it.
Only £122 billion pounds black hole. Value for money?
Yes but by leaving the EU we are saving £10 billion a year - so that's all good 😕
Which group will be the scapegoat this time?
Thatcher, obviously
Kimberly - austerity eh!?!
Joe, the only correct (?) thing you say about the EU is the fact tha like the Indy result, you are not prepared to accept the result of a democratic process. That's for you to live with...the rest of us can respect it and get on with the next stage.
And now the not so bright are unsurprisingly too proud to reconsider their position in light of newer more reliable information.
Well my mate point blank refuses to believe that the current rate of the pound is anything to with er Brexit.
(although he was complaining how he used to get posh car parts on ebay Germany well cheap and cant anymore 🙂
nice to see mention that the crap UK productivity is actually going to fall even further.
Well my mate point blank refuses to believe that the current rate of the pound is anything to with er Brexit.
What does he reckon happened on the 23rd of June 2016 then?
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I know who Andy is now, who's Joe?
I know who Andy is now, who's Joe?
I believe Seosamh is the Gaelic interpretation of the biblical name Yoseph interpreted by the English and French as Joseph.
Aye, my learned mate up North with whom I have regular Scottish related discussions. Nice chap....
@igm there has been much news coverage of that video with makers called out for such a blatant misrepresentation, they've cut off sentences half way through and quoted things massively out of context. When you see the whole clips you realise what a disgraceful video it is.
Jamba - I appreciate that everything is done with an agenda (allegedly even some of your posts 😉 ) and cutting videos to give false impressions is a classic (see chewkw's Muslim Obama one for example) but it was more the textual direct quotes below the video I was referring too.
Did Hannan not say "Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market" ?
Or Farage "Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They’re rich. They’re happy. They’re self-governing"?
Or Banks "Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK"?
The Brexiteers leadership campaigned for soft Brexit. Anything else is post-rationalisation at best, and probably fibbing.
Even chewkw praised the Norway option (somewhere on this thread a few thousand posts ago in the run up to the referendum) though in common with the Brexiteers he seems to have changed his tune since.
The Brexiteers leadership campaigned for soft Brexit. Anything else is post-rationalisation at best, and probably fibbing.
You should watch the Sunday Politics clip, none of those clips come from speeches/interviews made during the campaign period. In fact the Farage one is years old. On the other hand, the guy behind the video did say this during the campaign:
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Not sure about Daniel Hannah, will check that out. Boris and Gove said clearly to an Andrew Marr question, yes we'd exit THE single market. Banks love the EU, complete freedom to sell products across borders and freedom of movement reduces staff costs and all of this at zero cost to them as the Govt/taxpayers pay the £billions to the EU.
It is ok Jambalaya is going to tell us it is Corbyn fault.
Gordon Brown's, happy to help 8)
I listened to the speech. A lot of good news and smart policy changes helping those at the bottom end and the middle. Growth still forecast to be above France and Germany. We should maybe lhave a thread about productivity (30% below France and Germany and even 8% below Italy. I am genuinely at a loss at to why we are so cr@p, answer could be controversial ie too high wages outside London - London productivity is higher than EU averages.
Osbourne did get some grip on spending. As we have said before getting a grip on spending is far more difficult that letting it run out of control. As for the black hole I will look at the numbers later, anti-Brexit newspaper headlines are just that.
EDIT:
GDP and the maths of big numbers. UK GDP is £2.8 trillion. So a 1% change in GDP is £28 billion. IMO Brexit will deliver in the medium and longer term much higher GDP than if we remained inside the EU, so a massive win. Now the OBR can only make a forecast based on what it knows today, ie we will be leaving the EU in 2019, it can't forecast what deals we may make including with the EU.
So it's forecast is pessimistic, hugely so IMO. Also once again we are back to the Osbourne £4,300 per household. We have a lower 2020 GDP forecast. But it's a forecast and it is not a loss in terms of us having less than we have today.
teamhurtmore - Member
Joe, the only correct (?) thing you say about the EU is the fact tha like the Indy result, you are not prepared to accept the result of a democratic process. That's for you to live with...the rest of us can respect it and get on with the next stage.
I'm perfectly prepared to accept any democratic decision, it's you that refuses to accept my democratic right to call for another referendum, whenever I like. (It may or may not be accepted, but that still doesn't negate my right to call for and campaign on it(Or 2 rather as I'd like to see, eventually 😉 .)). Not like I've enacted a coup in either instance...
Tbh, regarding the EU, I don't think both our analysis of it is really that far away, we both see what the fundamental flaw in the project is... That it isn't set up as a USofE or UK, and the necessary fiscal transfer to troubled areas doesn't happen. (i think letting Greece crash and burn is a scandal)
And this is where the real problem people have with Europe lies, imo. People think it is going to go down that road. Personally, and we're obviously talking theoretically here(unless we can force a rethink), i'd be a supporter of a USoE model. Ultimately, I think that's where a large percentage of the UK population are, they think that would be inevitable, and disagree with it.
It's also where your argument of the best of all worlds falls down, imo. In that that can only be a short term view. Jamba is correct a USoE is/was the ultimate end point for Europe. (I still think it will be, minus selected others.)
Hmm, didn't I say 'add a zero'...
So, in September 2016 it was estimated:
[I]The IfG's estimate of administration cost is based on David Davis' statement that DexEu will eventually have around 400 staff – likely to add between £28m and £40m to the department’s budget. The researchers also assumed that the new trade department will grow in size by around 200 staff, costing around £17m to £25m additional administration costs each year.[/I]
And now...
[I]The BBC's political editor has found a figure tucked inside the Autumn Satement for how much it will cost Whitehall to go through the Brexit process.
It estimates a cost of £412m. "Just on admin - that's quite a big cheque."[/I]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-38028907
The Sunday Politics interview.
I think there is a tiny [b]minority[/b] of Brits who accept a USofE. What is an absolute disgrace is no one anywhere is being told honestly by politicians that's the project. What share of the vote do you think Le Pen would have if Hollande said that was the plan ?
What competance do you think the EU has displayed to run a USofE ? To the contrary.
Seoso (I do struggle with that name/id 😳 ) what has happened with Greece is the best outcome they can expect given they don't want to leave the euro. They should have reintroduced the drachma in 2010 but ths issue was Portugal, Italy and Spain could/would have been forced out of the euro too. They have kocked the can down the road repeatedly hoping the problem is going to somehow dissapear but it's not. Greece is bust and the eurozone have made a gift of €200bn (assuming they can oay back €150 of the 350) of their taxpayers money.
What fiscal/banking unity would have meant for Greece is that it's economy would have remained sustainable (rather than the total fake we see even today) and the country poorer than Portugal and probably more like Bulgaria.
What is an absolute disgrace is no one anywhere is being told honestly by politicians that's the project.
And you know for sure that it is officially the project?
Please tell us. And don't quote the 'ever closer unity' thing, cos that's hugely ambiguous and only a nice sounding mission statement.
Jamba, I'd agree a tiny minority would share my views. I personally would base my thoughts on it on a basic tenet, that the sum of the parts is great than the whole. I honestly couldn't really begin to start describing the entire structure to you, I just see the European integration that is all I ever known as a positive force (well until recent times, but these problems will eventually be overcome.)
Some may see that as counter to wanting independence, but it's not really, if you base that as being in the EU. Scotland>UK>EU is the traditional route. Scotland>EU looks better to me, in the context of a larger closer union.
Anyhow, I guess that's all largely academic, as we're looking like we're on an unstoppable juggernaut here..
Seosamh/seaso, no worries, quite like seaso anyhow! 😉
Jamba - Aaron Banks. Not the banking industry.
Don't worry. You're entitled to a senior moment every so often.
So we're all in agreement then. Brexiteers don't know what they want, and the rest of us have no chance of guessing. And the current administration just say whatever they think their audience wants to hear while not committing to anything.
Flip-floppers and opportunists the lot of them - the worst sort of career politicians.
Growth still forecast to be above France and Germany. We should maybe lhave a thread about productivity (30% below France and Germany and even 8% below Italy. I am genuinely at a loss at to why we are so cr@p, answer could be controversial ie too high wages outside London - London productivity is higher than EU averages.
go google 'average wage mechanical engineer' UK, and then do the same for germany. we are not an expensive place to employ skilled people.
there's a lot of evidence to suggest that the UK generally has failed to invest in automation, which is what results in poor productivity.
you want to make more stuff more cheaply, either automate, or go where the labour is cheap, or both ( of course ).
the industry i am involved in, a major manufacturing facility employing 7500, as a profitable anomaly in a large multinational, was basically shipped lock, stock, and barrel, to china. a story repeated over and over again in this country over the past 10-15 years.
large multinationals pull the headlines, and as you say jambalaya, just stick in the processes/procedures to deal with import and export.
small, 'high-tech' businesses like ours? putting in the processes/procedures to deal with import/export means increasing the wage bill by 25%.
but it's ok, cos it'll only take 5-10 years to sort out. for a lot of people that's 20-25% of a working lifetime. imagine that'll smart a bit if you have kids approaching college age.
5-10 years?
You'll be lucky.
mefty - Member
That snowflake is caught red handed in that BBC Sunday Politics interview. The way he struggled by twisting and turning his arguments like a slippery eel yet he is pinned down by Andrew Neil with all those video clips. 😆
Confused chewkw. Are you a secret remainer? Normally snowflake is a term of abuse reserved for the toys from pram leavers.
if we are gonna do backtracking overwhelmed snowflake....
see daniel hannan
I voted for Brexit. Not a remainder if you are still unsure.igm - Member
Confused chewkw. Are you a secret remainer? [b]Normally snowflake is a term of abuse reserved for the toys from pram leavers.[/b]
I see snowflake as a term that someone that cannot hold the argument i.e. like snow melting away nothing to do with pram.
Are you sure it is alright to use that description?kimbers - Member
if wee are gonna do overwhelmed [b]snowflake[/b]....see daniel hannan.....
anyway 122bn extra borrowing thanks to Brexit!!!!!!!!
is that assuming a hard brexit?
this is what OBR thinks...
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and what it will do for productivity
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and of course its the most vulnerable that will suffer
I'm perfectly prepared to accept any democratic decision,
Excellent, more progress. Now stop going on about wanted to change it or have another vote. That's not democracy, its obstruction. Its bad enough listening to this once, we dont need both barrels.
Tbh, regarding the EU, I don't think both our analysis of it is really that far away, we both see what the fundamental flaw in the project is... That it isn't set up as a USofE or UK, and the necessary fiscal transfer to troubled areas doesn't happen. (i think letting Greece crash and burn is a scandal)
True but the wrong order. The fundamental flaw is the belief that the € could work in an area that does not fulfil the necessary conditions for a common currency. The rest is noise. Of course, this flaw is compounded by the fact that if you still want to have a common currency you need to have full monetary and fiscal union (yes with transfers to recycle surpluses) and this requires an element of political union too. Of course, Greece was a scandal and the Germans (and my mate Jambas) are disingenuous in they way they ignore the non-Greek factors involved.
And this is where the real problem people have with Europe lies, imo.
Addressed above.
Personally, and we're obviously talking theoretically here(unless we can force a rethink), i'd be a supporter of a USoE model. Ultimately, I think that's where a large percentage of the UK population are, they think that would be inevitable, and disagree with it.
There is no need for non members of the EZone to consider this. Its irrelevant and counter-productive.
It's also where your argument of the best of all worlds falls down, imo. In that that can only be a short term view.
On the contrary, it is the only plausible long term view. You cannot reconcile the desire for Scottish independence with membership of the EZ. That is fundamentally illogical as the arguments for both contradict each other.
Jamba is correct a USoE is/was the ultimate end point for Europe. (I still think it will be, minus selected others.)
Ture but its a red herring for the UK. We were not part of that process - a fact that the EU re-affirmed pre the vote. Its simply a scare tactic that creates noise.
We did have the best of both worlds - access to the single market, no €, no Schengen and as a result we were an attractive place for foreign investment (despite our poor productivity record). So absurd to throw that away - on this we agree.
5-10 years?You'll be lucky
i concur.
jamba's numbers. 😐
Kimbers I think that's one place where Hannah diverges from most Leavers, ie free movement of Labour. No thanks. Visa based yes please. Where he was correct was that it was Maasfricht which really changed the game into a Superstate project.
Del thanks, I agree investment in machinery / production equipment has been poor.
I saw some grapghs on Guardian website which seemed to suggest that after 2019 growth would be the same as forecast pre-Brexit and that the dip was temporary. That doesn't make sense though given assumptions.
As before no one has the bollix to show some forecasts around a eurozone / sovereign debt default. It's just like subprime 2006 all over again
I think chewk was referring to the chap in the video not me. However I didn't vote for Brexit.
i concur.
jamba's numbers.
Pessimist vs optimist. See my point about eurozone collapse.
Who knows what happens if Austria gets right wing President and dissolved parliament, Le Pen wins in France, Dutch far right, Germany and AfD (major terrorist attack during election run up ?) .. Trump leads IMF boycott of Greek bailout Mark 3 .. eurozone collapse ??
So many major uncertainties, we could get the ultimate deal, full tariff free access without any freedom of movement or budget contribution
With any luck we'll be able to drum up enough nationalistic hatred for another major war in Europe. Fingers crossed!
Jambas - any EZ collapse will affect us whether we are members of the wider EU or not. They are among our largest and most important trading partners. This is not/should not be part of determining the best structure to maximise the UK's interests. Its random noise.
Thm, we'll agree to disagree. 🙂
Dont worry, you will get there in the end. Like the collapse of the € it merely a question of when not if. 😉
So many major uncertainties, we could get the ultimate deal, full tariff free access without any freedom of movement or budget contribution
No really.... 😯
122bn extra borrowing thanks to Brexit!!!!!!!!
Or, £12,643.68 per leave vote 😯
Or, £12,643.68 per leave vote
Can we bill them? Unfortunately Borris would still get off as he undoubtedly voted to remain
£25 billion per annum extra borrowing
£8.5 billion annual EU contribution
Only £14.5 billion per annum to leave the EU
That's some overdraft
A collapse of the € would be worse for us out of the EU as we'd have no input into how the EU world handle it.
But then leaving is all about making Britain a smaller country in the world
I see snowflake as a term that someone that cannot hold the argument i.e. like snow melting away nothing to do with pram.
For the record "snowflake" [i]usually[/i] refers to someone who thinks that they are unique and special.
But, y'know...
And no extra money for social care already in dire straits, no extra money for the NHS(So much for 350mil a week), no extra money for education already in a funding crisis, minimum wage to rise to £7.20 by 2020 instead of planned £9.
No respite in cuts to local services funding.
Brexit hitting the poorest hardest.
Yes, that chap in the video. Not you mefty. 😛mefty - Member
I think chewk was referring to the chap in the video not me. However I didn't vote for Brexit.
jambalaya - MemberAs before no one has the bollix to show some forecasts around a eurozone / sovereign debt default. It's just like subprime 2006 all over again
People have been predicting this would happen [b]imminently[/b] for a decade now, and still no sign of it.
Robert Preston reckons £220Bn cost by 2020. Thems some expensive blue passports.
**** a duck.
So many major uncertainties, we could get the ultimate deal, full tariff free access without any freedom of movement or budget contribution
This cannot and never will happen
there is no way on earth we leave, don't pay, ignore the rules and they just let us carry on
TBH a child should have a better understanding of this than to state that as a possibility
Its more likely Elvis will be our lead negotiator than that scenario
So many major uncertainties, we could get the ultimate deal, full tariff free access without any freedom of movement or budget contribution
WHAT FING PLANET ARE YOU ON???
Robert Preston reckons £220Bn cost by 2020.
Is he any better than that Peston clown who used to be on the Beeb?
So around £1BN a week then, i.e costing £800MM a week more than we are currently paying to be part of EU.
Not sure where the £350MM extra NHS funding is coming from.....
The great thing about Peston moving from the BBC is I never have to listen to him again. Peston is the most appaling egotist the very personification of Mr Clickbait.
Europe was totally F'd without Brexit, with its even worse. The cost to Europe is far higher than it is to us. The Brussells politicans can play Russian Roulette if they wish but the gun is pointed at the EU's head and Germany in particular. Germany cannot bail out the eurozone they quite simply don't have enough money. Germany will be the biggest loser in a WTO scenario. It's not rocket science.
Top politicing from Boris by the way on supporting Turkey's EU membership now we are leaving.
@kerley these are forcasts, the OBR rarely gets it right 1 year in advance. Who knows what the opportunity cost of being shackled to an economic corpse has been the last 10 years, how many hundreds of billions of lost growth ?
Yeah because the UK economy was in such great shape before we joined the EC/EEC/EU whatever. Some of us remember.
Jamba - its a much lessor cost to the EU than to the UK.
Its a small part of EU trade, its a huge part of UK trade
Peston is very dramatic ... 😆jambalaya - Member
The great thing about Peston moving from the BBC is I never have to listen to him again. Peston is the most appaling egotist the very personification of Mr Clickbait.
Peston
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is
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verrrrrrry
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Ftfy
you are on form tonight Jambalaya . 😆
these are forcasts, the OBR rarely gets it right 1 year in advance.
Forecasts that the government uses to determine how it will spend
So even by some great miracle (that only the most truly deluded of Brextits actually believes) Brexit were to deliver to the 100-200bn extra that it will need just to break even.
Those at the bottom will continue to suffer as our services suffer from ever more chronic underinvestment, just in the short term.
Wanton stupidity on an epic scale
anyway i read the statement and not one mention of the NHS, with all the extra money floating around i would have thought could have bunged a few quid in that direction. But no...
[quote=tjagain ]Jamba - its a much lessor cost to the EU than to the UK.
Its a small part of EU trade, its a huge part of UK trade
No its quite clearly a scenario where jamby can see everyone suffering due to lost trade but us...the one with the most trade to lose.
As for post brexit, who has been funding Le Pen, Farage etc. Nice Mr Putin, nice to see who is going to clean up after the shit subsides.