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IF it would allow No Deal to happen, that was the trap Blair was warning of
He also warning that, unless Labour returned a massive majority they'd be in the same boat BJ is now. There would be no chance of Labour concluding this and they'll be in the same mire.
If there is an election it will be tight. It will weaken Johnson if Labour win today and don’t take his first for an election.
It'll weaken him at Westminster but I don't think so with the electorate. It'll make it clear Conservatives are for brexit and Labour aren't. Unless Labour can capitalise on that by convincing themselves they're not, and coming out for remain they simply won't pick up as many votes as they'd loose.
I'll give me a an example, the next GE, if brexit isn't done with, is all about leave/remain it is the 2nd ref. A vote Tory is a vote for no deal at the moment, a vote Labour? What day is it? I've zero faith JC will actively seek to remain and I've no expectation he'll get a better deal. No I won't be voting Labour, I'll be voting LD, or Green - or if I were so inclined, tory or swivel eyed fruit cake) because at least I know what I'm voting for. It doesn't help if course that I think a 2nd ref is likely to produce a result not entirely dissimilar to the first either.
Chewkw thinks they are zombie bureaucrats at the EU. He worries that the distance between the voter and the Zombie is too great and that some of the Zombies are not elected at all.
I'd love to know what Corbyn's unrealistic policies are. Find it interesting that Blojo is going hard at spending promises on everything - Labour's supposed Magic Money Tree been the Tories go to argument when Labour start criticising public services.
I’m loving Chewkw seeing a Cummings run government with another Tory PM who has assumed the mantle even though they weren’t on the ticket at the election as the antidote to unelected bureaucracy.
The EU is as democratic, possibly more so, than the UK is in normal times - and UK democracy really has sunk to new lows due to Brexit and the shenanigans of Brexiteers and Brexies.
Obviously “I’m loving” is a relative term, because the overall situation is pretty poor for all of us.
PS - apparently the present numbers are suggesting BloJo loses another 6 seats if there is a GE. The runners and riders may change that, and the campaign even in a snap election will be long in real terms, but that’s a 5 seat minority even with DUP support.
Does he offer the SNP independence? Might be s vote winner with the “true British patriots” of little England.
I’m expecting a few more of these … quietly leaving parliament rather than joining another party or standing/sitting as an independent…
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1168769690715459586?s=21
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He also warning that, unless Labour returned a massive majority they’d be in the same boat BJ is now
An election after an extension is all about reducing the number of Conservative MPs… it is highly unlikely to result in a majority Labour government… but a coalition or supported minority government without either Johnson or Farage in it is something worth aiming for, for so so many reasons. Tactical voting won’t be enough to achieve this… the opposition parties need to work together… or it’s a No Deal Brexit and at least 5 years of a damaging Conservative Brexit government… and if democratic norms are then further subverted by them, many many more years.
PS – apparently the present numbers are suggesting BloJo loses another 6 seats if there is a GE.
I saw poll/seat prediction yesterday that had Tories on 358 seats.
Scotroutes - one poll ain’t an election (and check who commissioned it) but 10,000 surveyed apparently - here’s the story
I do hope that JC et al have the savvy and courage to deny Boris an election on his terms. There's a job that needs doing prior to prorogation and they need to see it through.
Straightforward national polling will struggle because of the potential 20 Tory rebels who may stand, plus the Ruth D Scotland effect
Also, Johnson will need to get out and campaign unlike during his leadership election. Hiding away really damaged May. If he does that there is always the opportunity for a big **** up
In a GE I predict Tories with the most seats but no majority and being unable to form a coalition with a majority. Because we live in that kind of time. There is not going to be an easy solution to any of this.
the Ruth D Scotland effect
A couple of folk have referred to this. What is it? The Tories were due to be wiped out up here before anything Ruth Davidson has said or done recently. She was nowhere near as popular or influential as much of the media liked to make out. She has flipped more times than a 5 star McDonald's frier and was completely sidelined by her Westminster "colleagues".
but a coalition or supported minority government
Isn't likely to work. The parties have little in common except their dislike of the tories but they don't like each other significantly more. What's the quid pro quo? Do you give the SNP an independent Scotland for their support or do they bin that mainstay of their policy once they get to sit in government? Ask Nick Clegg how that works out. The libdems? Tuition fees is on both their's and labour's radar so that might be enough, if not do you give them PR?
Labour and her supporters need to stop thinking about a close ish 2nd place and actually worry about a majority.
Also, Johnson will need to get out and campaign
He's already done most of what he needs, he's promised a shed load of spending and he's pretty much neutered farage, he'll go into this as the strong man of brexit and the voters he's looking to pick up aren't really interested in anything else.
The parties have little in common except their dislike of the tories but they don’t like each other significantly more.
They might form a coalition to deliver a 2nd ref then call another GE, perhaps. It'll be one of those situations where nothing will work so that'll be the only way forward.
What is it?
The Tories have finally admitted that they're completely ruthless.
They might form a coalition to deliver a 2nd ref then call another GE, perhaps. It’ll be one of those situations where nothing will work so that’ll be the only way forward.
That I can see, short term, limited goal. It's not long term government though and, in honesty, until JC comes up with a stand point for that referendum, I'm not sure I can even see that, no point pushing for ref 2 only to find bitty the major parties are campaigning for leave. As is, if the GE saw Labour loose seats in response to calling a referendum I can well imagine the labour party campaigning for leave in a subsequent referendum. If there's one thing you can count on the Labour membership deciding its that a tory government is worse than, anything really.
actually worry about a majority
Well… if it is heads in the sand time, Johnson is going to get his majority. Labour have done enough to get my vote, and I hope they will do enough in the general election campaign to repeat the performance of 2017 (rather than the awful performance of 2019 so far). But, stopping the Conservative Brexit Party forming the next government means standing aside in seats where other parties can defeat them. The opposition parties can either work together, or see a No Deal Brexit and an increasingly unconservative right wing government do its thing for a generation.
A worrying but wholly unsurprising thread in two halves:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168641286292824064.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168643035569299456.html
The Tories have finally admitted that they’re completely ruthless
[s] Bojo! I mean Bravado! [/s] I mean bravo!
I can't help thinking that if Labour swapped out JC for someone like Yvette Cooper then the next election would be a slam dunk.
Im a Labour Party member and I like JC, but i also recognise that many people don't and i can't stomach this rightwing shitshow any longer.
A worrying but wholly unsurprising thread in two halves:
I can't make head nor tail of that, it's like listening to my daughter have a 4 way conversation with herself.
Labour set to block snap general election over fears of a Boris Johnson no-deal Brexit ‘trick’
‘Will we fall for Boris Johnson’s trick? No we won’t. Boris Johnson is a man who has got form for reneging on his promises’Labour is backing away from granting Boris Johnson the 14 October general election he is threatening, fearing a “trick” that will end in a no-deal Brexit.
Jeremy Corbyn will only deliver the two-thirds Commons majority required to trigger a snap poll if legislation to block a no deal is “locked down” first, the party says.
Labour also fears Mr Johnson could be handed the election – and only then switch the date to after 31 October, when the UK would have left the EU.
“We are not daft enough to see a tactic dictated by PM Johnson which is designed to land us with a no-deal Brexit and to fall for that,” said Tony Lloyd, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary.
“Will we fall for Boris Johnson’s trick? No we won’t. Boris Johnson is a man who has got form for reneging on his promises.”
I can’t make head nor tail of that, it’s like listening to my daughter have a 4 way conversation with herself.
TL;DR They are lying. There is no deal being negotiated - it's a 'sham' devised by Cummings, there are no 'technical solutions', there are no 'mini-deals' to mitigate no-deal and the plan to abolish the backstop has been dismissed as 'complete fantasy' by booming voice law **** Geoffrey Cox.
Lies lies lies lies lies.
And still people will be lining up to vote for them.
P.S. After being told Yellowhammer was a fabrication of worst case scenarios, they won't publish the new version because it is too scary.
Unrealistically left-wing… How about the devastating right-wing policies we have endured?
I think he is unrealistically left wing and the Tories are unrealistically right wing. But then I'm a liberal snowflake.
Another liberal snowflake here, who regards both main party leaders - Dominic Cummings and Seamas Milne - as dangerous extremist lunatics.
This morning I heard the most depressing thing yet about this whole debacle...
Dominic Grieve calmly talking about needing to regularly consult with the police regarding the constant death threats he receives.
This is what Brexit has turned this country into with its emboldening and normalising of extremist politics. It’s tragic
Tactical voting won’t be enough to achieve this
Tactical voting could be rather effective in one specific constituency. One that is primarily pro-remain and anti heathrow.
Might not be good for its current MP who skipped the country when voting about Heathrow and seems rather pro-brexit.
A couple of interviews this morning on BBC, one with Dominic Grieve who went through the various points logically and one with Dominic Raab who basically answered with a series of veiled threats: "letting Corbyn take power"; etc.
There was also an interview with a backbench MP Sam something or other who said that the last time he'd been contacted by any of the government whips was over a month ago during the parliamentary recess. This suggests that there's no explicit removal of the whip or deselection but it's all being done at arms length, lots of "could" and "possibly" being bandied about, letting the press feed off rumours in the absence of actual statements. That way Cummings et al. can say, truthfully, that there was no order to deselect remain supporting tories but the local associations will have "got the message"
This is what Brexit has turned this country into with its emboldening and normalising of extremist politics. It’s tragic
It is tragic, but blaming it all on brexit is a bit too easy. We are where we are because for decades ordinary people (I'm not going to use the phrase 'working class' cos it'll only result in a tsunami of Monty Python memes) have been ignored. They've seen their incomes reduce in real terms, employment protections and rights removed, public services degraded or cut, benefits reduced, and opportunities for their kids to climb the ladder disappear. And all the while they watched as a tiny few at the top reward themselves with unjustifiable riches while escaping their obligation to contribute to society. If that's what you call non-extremist, then it's little wonder people have turned to the opposite.
If the LibDems don't score big time out of this debacle, they're incompetents.
If I have to watch another Daily Mail reading pensioner sat in a cafe saying BoJo is great and we should get on with Brexit I'll cry.
That's quite true dazh, and the eu has been scapegoated by the Tories so they can make it look as though they are acting on behalf of those "ordinary people" whilst actually making a power grab which will result in an even greater rift in society.
If I have to watch another Daily Mail reading pensioner sat in a cafe saying BoJo is great and we should get on with Brexit I’ll cry.
Does no-one ever ask them WHY?
I agree with pretty much all of that Daz (oh god, it’s happened again)
I’m not saying that Brexit created the problem, I’m saying that the tactics employed by people like Cummings and Farage (which they’re up to again) have normalised extremism.
These people are deliberately stoking potentially violent division, for their own ends, with not a single care about the long term implications
I said a little while back, there's no way we'll see a no deal brexit under Boris because there's no chance he'll go down with the ship. If it happens, he'll be a long long way away, the only thing Boris cares about is Boris.
Headlines all over the tabloids today, "try to block brexit and I'll call a general election."
Called it. Come Halloween, Boris will be in Costa Del Miles Away with a sangria and a pig's head.
and the eu has been scapegoated by the Tories
Yes they have, but the EU are not entirely innocent. They may not be as ruthless as the tories, but people are not stupid. They see the same things that are happening here happening in Europe. The likes of Juncker blocking measures to prevent corporate tax avoidance, and the merciless treatment of the Greeks tells them all they need to know. The tories, Trump, The EU, Corporations, Civil Servants, and the media are all different sides to same coin in the eyes of ordinary people. Brexit may be an attempt to blame one (the EU) and absolve the other (the tories), but this works both ways, which is why remainer attempts to do the opposite are ringing hollow.
These people are deliberately stoking potentially violent division, for their own ends, with not a single care about the long term implications
Yes they are. History has taught us time and again that this is what happens when 'normal' politics stops working for 'normal' people. Which is why I'm always amazed, and intensely annoyed, when people defend it.
We are where we are because for decades ordinary people (I’m not going to use the phrase ‘working class’ cos it’ll only result in a tsunami of Monty Python memes) have been ignored. They’ve seen their incomes reduce in real terms, employment protections and rights removed, public services degraded or cut, benefits reduced, and opportunities for their kids to climb the ladder disappear. And all the while they watched as a tiny few at the top reward themselves with unjustifiable riches while escaping their obligation to contribute to society.
Yes, and yet somehow people still keep on voting Tory. People need educating on what Tory and Labour actually stand for, and how they can make a difference collectively. Too many people go 'ooh I don't do politics' well - politics does you, so you'd better show an interest or nothing's going to improve.
but people are not stupid
They may be poorly informed though.
The tories, Trump, The EU, Corporations, Civil Servants, and the media are all different sides to same coin in the eyes of ordinary people.
As I said, poorly informed.
Brexit may be an attempt to blame one (the EU) and absolve the other (the tories), but this works both ways, which is why remainer attempts to do the opposite are ringing hollow.
What does this even mean?
The likes of Juncker blocking measures to prevent corporate tax avoidance
If people think that Johnson &co are going to start clamping down on tax avoidance after a no deal then they are even more idiotic than I thought.
Re Greece - didn't the EU bail Greece out ultimately? How is that merciless? Surely showing no mercy would have been telling them to **** off?
Vox pops seem to be universally depressing on the media. They seem to only go to the leave voting constituencies in the deprived areas where they are most likely to be even more shafted by a No Deal and find unwavering but unexplainable support there.
DazH point of how we have got there is true but the Vox Pop doesn't articulate that.
If people think that Johnson &co are going to start clamping down on tax avoidance after a no deal then they are even more idiotic than I thought.
Yes I thought it was the EU that are passing into tax avoidance legislation due to come into effect on - ooh look, 1st November.
Does no-one ever ask them WHY?
I'm down to my last Leave Facebook friend, I've been asking for three years, and the answer's been changing for three years. Any talk of trade benefit beyond the very non-specific "opportunity" has long since gone, we're pretty much just down to immigration and respecting democracy - interestingly, he admitted last week that he didn't know we controlled non-EU migration, but he still wants the democracy of the referendum respected (the 54% vote for parties that ruled out no deal in 2017, he's less bothered about). We also had the paradox last week of MEPs being unelected, but Farage's election as an MEP is an adequate democratic stand-in for his failure to be elected as an MP.
And if people in Greece paid their taxes in full, they would have faired a lot better.
These people are deliberately stoking potentially violent division, for their own ends, with not a single care about the long term implications
Short of burning down Westminster the parallels with the final years of the Weimar Republic scare the hell out of me.
I don't think they're stoking violent, devisive, xenophobic extremist attitudes with no care for the long term implications, I think they're deliberately normalising them, they're well aware what those outcomes are and they're quite happy with them.
Re Greece – didn’t the EU bail Greece out ultimately? How is that merciless? Surely showing no mercy would have been telling them to **** off?
No, they kicked this can down the road again. They know, and the IMF agreed, that the Greek debt is unsustainable, and the only way to actually help is to write it off. But this was politically impossible for Merkel, so they impose more pain.
Surely showing no mercy would have been telling them to **** off?
Maybe but then good luck with the German and French banks (plus British to a lesser degree) who would have had to pay the price for their foolish lending practices.
Maybe but then good luck with the German and French [s] banks [/s] (plus British to a lesser degree) populace who would have had to pay the price for their banks' foolish lending practices.
FTFY.
Ahh… the Greece Squirrel. Probably the most popular/regular diversion in this (over)long running thread.
Remember, we are not Greece, we don’t have the same membership terms as Greece… we have our own unique position with opt outs galore.