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So in Wales looking at the percentages and past returned MEPs,vote share is roughly even between:
Conservative - We'll have our brexit and eat it too,
Labour - We'll have our Brexit but say its good for you
UKIP - Brexit to prevent an elitist coup
Plaid - reluctantly brexit though we don't want to
Remain supporting lib dms and greans have about 4% of the votes each.
Who to vote for?
Turnout will be a factor tbh, if turnout remains as low as 35%, leave will just say no-one is interested in europe regardless of the result, which is a point that will have some validity tbf. If turnout rises significantly it could play a bit of a factor, I doubt it'll be any kind of defining moment.
Tbh, I think the Euro elections will just be a side show for the next month or 2. Come august/september/october, they'll have been forgotten about.
Saying that a 60/70% turnout at them would probably add alot to the arguments either way, will be surprised if they top 50% though
It won't be forgotten about… be ready for, "80% of votes in the European Elections were cast for parties promising to leave the EU, and leave the Customs Union, and leave the Single Market, and to end Freedom of Movement", being constantly repeated.
+1111!!!!oneone
Exactly this. Want remain, vote lib Dems for MEP
Odds on anything productive being done with the next six months? Anyone?
Especially as parliament will be on holiday for half that period.
and the EU will be in a state of change due to the elections, it's time for the leaders to come up with something and bring it to parliament not just try and beat them into submission, apart from that plenty of time for another vote
Odds on anything productive being done with the next six months? Anyone?
I've just listened to the two most intransigent people in the country, May and Corbyn, giving each other the usual slagging and refusing to budge an inch on their positions.
The odds of them reaching any kind of agreement are about the same as those for me embracing a vegan diet
Listening to the parliamentary stuff, it looks like the Maybot's 'plan' for the next six months is to keep on bringing her 'deal' back to be voted down again.
Its like the last month never happened and she's just parroting the same old mantra that the only way to avoid a no deal Brexit is to vote for her deal.
The proper gammons like Peter Bone and Bill Cash are all absolutely apoplectic about the extension, so its not all bad 😀
I agree - totally ludicrous: the only way to break the deadlock is to vote for my deal! But looking at the guardian live, the most common question from MPs does seem to be about a peoples vote. Maybe it will eventually get hammered in that ist the only way out of this.
I can see the WA passing with the provision to be put to the people, she can't keep bringing it back and Bercow has set the precedent in this parliament for that - up until now she was using the timescale to force it through now the power leaves her.
Did anyone else get the email from the TIGers?
"Today we would like to invite you to apply to be a candidate in the European Elections for the Independent Group. "
Hmm, the thought had crossed my mind to be honest. Time to do some research into just what is involved.
Hmm, the thought had crossed my mind to be honest. Time to do some research into just what is involved.
It was either R4 or 5 were interviewing 2 who were the Remain party "Renew"
https://www.renewparty.org.uk/
and the leavers (Brexit party I think(
Both just required you to register have a chat and get on the list
ferrals
Member
But its all right because Parliment are going on a nice long easter recess from this arvo till the end of the month. I’d say cancell easter and summer rcess unless ou sort this crap out!
Don't quite agree, I say cancel easter and summer until they've got on with all the other business of government that's been ignored so that they can **** up brexit. And once all that's taken care of, then maybe they can get back to ****ing up brexit again
Cooper and Letwin need to start drafting the bill to prevent haloween no-deal now, we've already messed this up so badly it's quite plausible that we will get nowhere when we calculate all the holidays they are giving themselves*
*yes I know that MPs need holiday but summer recess is crazy, it's yet another symptom of the dysfunction of Westminster that MPs actually going to do constituency stuff is lumped in with holiday time
I see May is "answering questions" in HoC just now. That is in quotes because she isn't actually answering any questions, just saying "back my deal" over and over and over and over and ...
@welshfarmer Yes, got it, I had also wondered about it but realistically, if by some remote chane TIG got enough votes and I was selected, moving family to Brussels would never work.. even if it would be handy for me to indulge my cyclocross fetish 🙂
I see May is “answering questions” in HoC just now. That is in quotes because she isn’t actually answering any questions, just saying “back my deal” over and over and over and over and …
I don't think she has ever answered a question. When asked if she would go with no deal she always says something like "the best way to avoid a no deal is her deal" but that doesn't answer whether she would go with a no deal.
And whenever Corbyn asks her a question on how badly the Tories are doing her response is always "well Labour did xxx when they were in power"
I know very few politicians answer questions but she is one of the worst. She may as well just say "your mum" to every question as it would have as much value.
Are TIG just asking everyone on their mailing list to stand as an MEP?
Are TIG just asking everyone on their mailing list to stand as an MEP?
Sounds like it's exactly how you use a mailing list. They need candidates fast not sure its something you post at the job centre.
I don’t think she has ever answered a question. When asked if she would go with no deal she always says something like “the best way to avoid a no deal is her deal” but that doesn’t answer whether she would go with a no deal.
Expert at bland platitudes and meaningless circular statements - Brexit means Brexit; no deal is better than a bad deal (er, it clearly isn't cos we've now spent an inordinate amount of time trying to make sure that no deal can't happen).
She's so far out of her depth on this - to be fair I'm not sure anyone can actually understand it never mind try and make it happen but the fact that she's hidden behind this pathetic charade of meaningless quotes, presumably employing them to mask her complete ignorance of everything, and all she's succeeded in doing is kicking the can ever further down the road, something else that she's very very good at.
May's not out of her depth at all.
She can swan off into the sunset any time she likes. It's just a game to her and her super rich tax avoiding hubby.
That's why we only get platitudes from the prime minister.
Meanwhile all honest working tax payers are getting monumentally bent over.
She can swan off into the sunset any time she likes. It’s just a game to her and her super rich tax avoiding hubby.
See her track record says otherwise, when you get rich enough it's all about legacy. What will be hers?
YOu must remeber in all this Mays one aim is what is best for the tory party and that the tory party stays in power. She knows no deal would be disastrous and the tories will be blamed for it so she cannot go that direction. She knows a hard brexiteer in charge would destroy the party electorally
Everything she does has to be seen thru this lens. Its all about and only about what May thinks is best for the tory party
Everything she does has to be seen thru this lens. Its all about and only about what May thinks is best for the tory party
Except she broke it, at this point I'd have to say it's more about her than anything else, delivering brexit is delivering something...better than she has managed so far in political life.
You're probably right.
It's an ego thing now.
Why else would May continue on the current tragectory.
The softening of Brexit to remain in a customs union, is that not the worst of both worlds? Like sitting with a group at a restaurant table but someone else orders your food for you, with you having no real say on what you get?
[strong]dmorts[/strong] wrote:
The softening of Brexit to remain in a customs union, is that not the worst of both worlds? Like sitting with a group at a restaurant table but someone else orders your food for you, with you having no real say on what you get?
Still better than sitting in the street begging for scraps.
Things surely have changed since the days of 350 million for the NHS/easiest trade deals in history/taking back control! 🙂
dmorts - thats what the brexshitters would have you believe. the other way of looking at it is minimising the damage. Nothing is as good as what we ave now but the softest of soft brexits is a way of "respecting the referendum" while minimising the damage.
It still remains stupid. Its like shooting off your own big toe rather than your whole leg
The softening of Brexit to remain in a customs union, is that not the worst of both worlds? Like sitting with a group at a restaurant table but someone else orders your food for you, with you having no real say on what you get?
Yes, it's a stupid idea.
But the reasoning goes like this: We want to leave. But we'll put up huge barriers between us and our immediate neighbours and trading partners; that would be stupid so let's stay in the CU. But that means following the rules even though we have no say; that's also stupid. So we want to keep a say in the rules so... that only leaves one option.
The more aligned we are the easier it will be to get back in.
If they’d have us back I don’t know.
CU is the brexit none of the Brexiters can handle, it's what compromise of a binary situation looks like but hey we have compromised, if they want it we can have a vote on it. It's another step towards revoke/referendun
Next Tuesday
This sounds promising.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-11/why-labour-looks-set-to-become-the-referendum-party/
If they’d have us back I don’t know.
It would be like last time… the French would block us. Anyone hoping that we can leave for a while, then get back in on similar terms once we've learnt the benefit of being inside and the control lost by being on the outside, is likely to be disappointed.
This sounds promising.
Nothing new. Most of the party think we should have a vote… Corbyn, Milne, Murray & Co want to play it smart and ensure that their Brexit will not be voted on. That battle is still ongoing… after we were supposed to have already left.
The interesting line from that Peston article:
the advantages of Labour rebranding as the people's vote vanguard in the forthcoming European parliamentary and council elections would be very significant.
Labour would pick up the votes of almost all of the 48% who voted to remain in 2016, while the Tories would face a humiliating wipe out, with so much of the leave vote likely to gravitate to Farage's new Brexit party and to a somewhat resurgent UKIP.
Labour becoming the 2nd ref party is not as damaging as becoming the remain party; and it would split the Labour vote perhaps. But all it has to do is split the Labour vote less than the Tory vote.
Well done Donkeys.
Indeed. They've done some great work.
But all it has to do is split the Labour vote less than the Tory vote.
Only if getting a Labour government is more important to you then leaving the EU. How long have Milne&Murray&co been in the party? How long have they been anti EU?
Only if getting a Labour government is more important to you then leaving the EU.
Well no, since a 2nd ref is likely the only possible route to remain so both those things would overlap if Labour went all in for 2nd ref. Tbh remaining is, for me, more important, because governments are temporary.
Milne joined Labour in 2016
Tbh remaining is, for me, more important, because governments are temporary.
True… but turning that around…
…my point is that there are people wielding power in the Labour Party now who are fervent long standing Brexit backers… they will fight hard against allowing the public a vote on their Brexit, even if that damages Labour's chances in elections short term.
Anything to be learnt from last night's by-elections? Leith had 30% turnout which is sort of disappointing given what's going on. Strong showing by the Greens and pro-EU parties picking up 70% of the vote.
Murray also joined Labour in 2016.
These key people (I can list more if it doesn't bore you) are not loyal to the party, but they do share long term aims with the party leader. One of those aims is to get us out of the EU. They may back a referendum to cause trouble for a Tory government… but they will fight like hell to prevent a Labour government having to put their Brexit to the public in a referendum.
At the moment we need to be considering the EU elections first and getting the right people in those, chances are May could cling to power and between her and Labour deliver a 2nd ref - at that point Labour need to pick a side - there is no time for a Lexit negotiation.
Tbh remaining is, for me, more important, because governments are temporary.
My view too. I'd be prepared to hold my nose in the polling booth to achieve that end.
At the moment we need to be considering the EU elections first
Expect lots of noise, like that article last linked to, "suggesting" that a vote for Labour in these elections could lead to both/either a Soft Brexit and/or a referendum on it… and then for that to be ignored completely after the vote… when the policy will be restated as… no FoM, leave the EU, leave the Single Market, leave the Customs Union, no referendum on any Brexit that the Labour leadership team support.