I was thinking that Mays deal May squeak through next week, but in reality its opposed equally by Tory remainers and the ERG in roughly similar numbers. More moderates than ERG, probably. The ERG are backtracking as they fear losing their precious Brexit completely, but the Tory moderates won't budge as they know its a shit deal. I can't see even a handful of Labour MPs voting for it
And the DUP will simply never vote for any deal with the backstop in. And we know that when those mad creationist 'no surrender' bastards say they will never vote for something, they mean it!
I wonder what odds I'd get with the bookies for her tabling it for a 4th time and John Bercow telling her no?
I thought fjords
It can have more than one thing.
Funnily enough, one thing it doesn't have is a Customs Union.
Yep Norway has FOM which is a good thing.
I'm assuming when Labour say they will end FOM they mean they will end FOM as we now have it and it will be replaced with something very similar.
It's not ****ing unicorns though is it?
ONce its signed what input will Parliment have on the shape of the future realtionship?
About as much as they have so far, the direction is controlled by the government. The PM leads this and as shown it's damm hard to break that without booting her - they also can't replace her for a while unless she quits
The World at One was pretty depressing on Radio 4 just now. Interviewing people in Northern and Southern Ireland. Theres zero optimism for the future. Brexit will hit them harder than anywhere else economically, but a lot of people are genuinely concerned (quite legitimately) about a return to the troubles.
And the only people that Theresa May is listening to is the DUP who are a minority of a minority, and quite frankly a bunch of backward gazing bigots
Meanwhile, back in Westminster Michael Gove further fans the flames by saying that 'Direct Rule' will be imposed again after Brexit. And Karen Bradley sees if she can get through the day without saying something breathtakingly offensive
The uncaring and cavalier ignorance on display with regard to the whole issue of Ireland is really worrying. I can really se it ending very very badly
I’m assuming when Labour say they will end FOM they mean they will end FOM as we now have it and it will be replaced with something very similar.
It’s not **** unicorns though is it?
What does something very similar to FOM look like?
Because the point is that, unless it's so similar it's indistinguishable, it is ****ing unicorns.
Stress guy across said
Roald Dahl
Wrong he was Welsh, born in Cardiff. 🏴🏴🏴
That'll be the same as 'a' customs union, that isn't 'the' customs union
Its whatever you want it to be. It won' survive contact with the real world, obviously... but its a nice unicorny idea that apparently some people are more than happy to swallow
I was thinking that Mays deal May squeak through next week
Well, there are quite a few hardliners in the Tory party, so even with DUP they would need nearly all the ERG and sundry other nutters to vote for it. That may be difficult since many of them prefer no-deal and they still may get that if they vote against the deal.
The question is, how many Labour will vote for it?
Yes so similar its identical! An emergency brake or quotas or just FOM and deal with the consequences.
Whats wrong with FOM?
I’m assuming when Labour say they will end FOM they mean they will end FOM as we now have it and it will be replaced with something very similar
Well binners beat me to it, but since labour have said they want "a" customs union, if they wanted to retain FoM I would have thought they would say they want "a" FoM. But they haven't. So perhaps they don't.
The question is, how many Labour will vote for it?
I think enough that it will pass
Whats wrong with FOM?
Nothing at all but Labour have promised to end it. That is what makes all their claims unicorns.
a further clarification referendum – that is what it would be – it would be asking the question that after the negotiation this is what leave looks like
How about a sudo command by someone who knows what they're doing?
Whats wrong with FOM?
The racists sorry, leavers don't like brown* people
* actual evidence, from an actual overhead conversation post referendum vote of two old dears in a Co-Op fantasising that at least we can stop the (...said under breath) brown people coming here now.
But they'll all see the light come 2nd ref?
That is what makes all their claims unicorns.
No, it doesn't. They want a negotiated arrangement regarding customs which will require a trade-off with FoM.
if they wanted to retain FoM I would have thought they would say they want “a” FoM. But they haven’t. So perhaps they don’t.
They want to allow immigration, but not un-restricted. The nature of those restrictions, along with the restrictions on trade provided by 'a' customs union, are to be the subject of negotiations.
The racists sorry, leavers don’t like brown* people
* actual evidence, from an actual overhead conversation post referendum vote of two old dears in a Co-Op fantasising that at least we can stop the (…said under breath) brown people coming here now.
imagine their horror when we start letting more 'brown' people in to secure all those trade deals...
No, but some of them will be dead now. And there will be 2 million 18 to 21 year olds who will now be able to vote who couldn't in 2016.
And then of course, you have the morons living abroad who let their voter registration expire and weren't really paying attention because, I mean, in what ****ing universe would the UK vote to leave the EU. That would be monumentally insane.
If I'm anything to go by people will be paying a lot more attention to the 2nd referendum than the first.
mariner
Member
Just imagine if May gets her deal through we have at least two more years of this discussion.
Do you think we can make 100,000 posts and will the stw website crash?
Get real, we've got a decade of trade talks to sort out
Jon Snow was on form yesterday. I think he's a tad vexed.
I think freedom of movement comes with the single market, not customs union. labour want "a" customs union, not single market. (why would you want to be in the single market, covering services...after all, services only account for 80% of our exports)
No, it doesn’t. They want a negotiated arrangement regarding customs which will require a trade-off with FoM.
*sigh* How many times? Repeat after me.... the four freedoms of the EU are indivisible
Noticed any signs over the last few years that the EU are prepared to compromise that to allow one country to cherry-pick which bits they fancy?
If so then you've been watching some very different negotiations to me.
Perhaps they will do though if a pensioner with a beard asks them nicely and brings them some courgettes?
The nature of those restrictions, along with the restrictions on trade provided by ‘a’ customs union, are to be the subject of negotiations.
You'd think this simple point would be obvious wouldn't you? Trouble is it doesn't support the 'corbyn is a secret ERG supporting hard brexit nutter' tin foil hat theory so good luck trying to get anyone to agree.
the four freedoms of the EU are indivisible
And how many times does it need to be pointed out that the indivisible four freedoms apply only to the single market and not the customs union? The customs union is not equal to the single market.
at least we can stop the (…said under breath) brown people coming here now.
They haven't seen the post referendum non-EU immigration figures then?
Aaaah yes... the single market that jezza intends to maintain tariff-free access too with out being a member of?
That not sound even more unicorny than his other red unicorns to you?
How many times? Repeat after me…. the four freedoms of the EU are indivisible
And again - how many times? - that refers to full customs union and full freedom of movement. The deal that Corbyn would have to go for would be some kind of qualified movement e.g. Australian points system or something, in return for a customs agreement regarding say goods and not services.
There are lots of examples of schemes allowing people to work in other countries that aren't full freedom of movement. That is what I would expect given what I've read. Does that make sense now?
Give up on them Binners. They don't see that there is no difference between their cake and eat nonsense, and that spouted by May, DD, Boris & Fox (the dream team) before they were forced to accept that "all the benefits of the Single Market & Customs Union" are unavailable if you are outside both. Politicans have lied and claimed that isn't the case… and some many people still believe that… they still deny the obvious…
Politicans have lied and claimed that isn’t the case… and some many people still believe that… they still deny the obvious…
No, you are really really not understanding what I am trying to say. I understand the indivisible four freedoms. Read my earlier post carefully.
A lot of people also don't understand that the 4 freedoms, including freedom of movement, are essential for the single market to function as a single market and for us to get the benefits of that. FoM is not something that has been arbitrarily imposed, it is one of the foundations that makes the single market work and removing it would create barriers to trade that would hit the effectiveness and thus the benefits of the single market.
How about a sudo command by someone who knows what they’re doing?
sudo rm -rf /erg /dup
sudo move /gammon /costadelsol
Please forgive my ignorance, I don't claim to be knowledgeable on these things, i'm just trying to get a better understanding on the potential outcomes of Brexit.
My understanding of people not wanting FOM was due to lots of African refugees that had crossed numerous European countries to camp in Calais trying to get into Britain, rather than every country taking a quota. I tend to keep out of the news/media so i'm not sure how often this still occurs?
sudo remove /creme /cat
So there are no countries that enjoy tariff free access to the single market without being members?
DUp in meetings with Cox and Hammond,
A.K.A how much more to we have to pay you so you'll reinterpret Cox's advice to amke the backstop palatable
shake that magic money tree....
I expect there are countries that enjoy zero tariff on some goods... point is, it's negotiable. Labour's policy says 'the benefits of single market', which is a very weaselly phrase that could mean lots of things. This is what I am trying to illustrate. This is politics after all.
DUp in meetings with Cox and Hammond,
There is certainly a correlation between the number of floating tories who will vote for May's deal and the likelihood of a defeat. They can back her and know it's not going through still. Last vote will be tight but I can see some keeping their resolve.
We have a way out now so there is time to do something
There's been plenty of talk on here by the crypto fascists that "thick" people/gammons who don't understand the issues shouldn't be allowed to vote.The more I read this thread the utter ignorance of some of the most prolific posters becomes more apparent.
So there are no countries that enjoy tariff free access to the single market without being members?
The Single Market isn't about tariffs… that's the Customs Union… and, no, there is no country outside the customs union that has tariff free access for all goods and services. Lots of trade deals (and unilateral concessions) remove many tariffs for goods. But the Single Market is about removing other barriers to trading and working across national barriers.
I wonder if this thread will be going when we rejoin?
My understanding of people not wanting FOM was due to lots of African refugees that had crossed numerous European countries to camp in Calais trying to get into Britain, rather than every country taking a quota. I tend to keep out of the news/media so i’m not sure how often this still occurs?
Well, that's nothing to do with FoM. FoM is freedom of movement of workers, and to qualify for said free movement you have to be an EU citizen (or from a country with a treaty to provide equivalent rights).
Those African refugees have no rights to come to this country under FoM.
So anyone who opposes FoM for that reason is misguided.
and to qualify for said free movement you have to be an EU citizen (or from a country with a treaty to provide equivalent rights).
It's freedom of movement of *labour*. So you need to be in a job as well.
Do you think we can make 100,000 posts and will the stw website crash?
We're coming up fast on 65536 posts, that's where it's going to have problems.