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So if i understand right, it's a bit like taking the results of the last however many 100m world championships and working out what the average time would be for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. Then run the race and see who comes in each position, and then assign them the time for that. No need to time it any longer.
It does mean that Usain Bolt's no longer the fastest man in the world, because stats say 100m runners can't run that fast. Seems fair.
Then run the race and see who comes in each position, and then assign them the time for that. No need to time it any longer.
Not quite - The race would not be run and everyone would binge watch netflix in the athlete's village. Instead, David Coleman would have been asked to decide the rank order he thought they would have come in the race and then the algorithm would have assigned them a time for their predicted position. If last year one of the athletes had snapped his hamstring and limped over the line 10 minutes after the penultimate placed athlete (a la Derek Redmond) one of this years athletes would also be given a time of 10min 10secs too - to make it fair for everyone.
Instead, David Coleman would have been asked to decide the rank order
Quite extraordinary!
why does this algorithm need to be secret?
It isn’t. Ofqual published a 300 page interim report on the methodology and performance. The interesting point is that it is “interim”. Maybe they plan an update based on the errr feedback.
Absolutely correct. Apologies. I got caught up in the (commentaries on) reports of groups being denied participation in its development due to refusal to sign an NDA.
For the 100m, every country would provide a predicted time for their athletes. All the times would be ranked and then adjusted to match their previous country’s performance. Never won a silver medal In the past? Too bad, your country will do poorly due to its historic performance. Jamaica has had a good sprinting team, but an exceptional athlete will be downgraded. USA might fare better
Of course if your from that (private) sprinting nation, the Faroe Islands, well there are no previous predictions, so if you said 8.99 was your time, congratulations! You just won gold.
it’s not the fact they are independent schools
Yes it is. Oh, you mean that’s not the reason given? Right you are. I understand (just about) how the algorithm works… I’m suggesting that the big f obvious flaw that it downgrades state school pupils and not private school pupils should have meant that it was not fit for purpose, and another methodology sought. Unless those involved, and those who gave them the task, didn’t care, or worse, were content with, baking that unfairness into the system.
Kelvin, I don't think that's right at all, the current government don't give a monkey's about anyone. I also think you're giving them far too much credit to think they even assesed the impact of the grading process, yet alone thinking, hey that works, it gives private school kids the advantage.
TiReds post above explains what happens at the bottom of the grading structure. I've explained what's happened at the top, small schools, CAG used rather than algorithm, different exam board to state schools. If you want to go all reactionary have a go at the fact the exams open to private schools (which have a reputation for being easier) are outside of Ofqual and not available to state schools.
Isn't it about time Gavin Williamson (aka Private Pike) threatened an exam board with a pint-sized aircraft carrier or something?
If you want to go all reactionary
The bias against state schools can happen more than once, be it deliberate or uncaring.
The waters are being tested for a Uturn…
https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1295263485274750977?s=21
When IDS is proposing a human solution, we really have gone down a rabbit hole.
The idea of Iain Duncan Smith doing something 'in a human way' is a bit worrying. I presume he means internment camps.
It's a spelling mistake. He means humane. He want students from disadvantaged communities 'treated' in a humane way. Allowing anaesthetic before they are sterilised, or something like that.
So Scotland are using teacher assigned grades, and now Northern Ireland. Leaving England once again to be the guinea pigs in Cummings grand experiment of 'data-led' government. When are these people going to understand that data, algorithms, technology and clever people with their statistical models can not solve every problem? I see this stuff at work all the time. Bosses who know bugger all asking if we can use AI or 'Machine Learning' to solve problems which are completely unsuited to it, and then channeling the lion's share of R&D money to people who are only too glad to spend it in the belief that everything can be automated. It can't, and tragically the people who are now finding that out are 18 and 16 year old kids who are seeing their dreams and future plans torn to shreds. Never in my life have I seen a single government policy/action cause such widespread distress and outrage. Boris is done after this, this is his poll tax.
This is what happens when you champion statistics over people's lives.
look into who developed and applied the algorithm and surrounding rules, and how they are linked to Gove& Cummings
Speaking of Cummings ...
Dazh has it bang on. Moderating involves comparing the work of pupils at different schools/colleges given the same mark/grade, to ensure consistency. What has happened is not moderation, it is capping results to fit an expected distribution of results nationwide… a capping that just happens to not be as harshly applied to the pupils at schools used by the shower in charge of our country right now.
Tories have just given all the private school kids a nice little boost to their futures, at the expense of everyone else.
A ****-you to us all.
This isn't data led government, it's make something up on the fly, leave it to someone else to try and come up with a workable solution, then criticise the solution, demand a different outcome and expect the numbers to back it up. Whats worse is the decisions are now being driven by emotion, should've got the algorithms sorted, issued the results to schools in advance (using NDAs), get real world feedback and fine tune the algorithms. Reduce the number of outliers (there will always be some, there are when exams are run, it's not a totally fair system either).
For many the U-turns are too late, universities have an admission cap inn place this year, by the time grades have been appealed and approved many of the sought after courses will be filled.
U turn upcoming at 4pm?
Indeed. Any sightings of a crestfallen Frank Spencer trying to style out his u-turn?
And...yes, it's a screeching U-turn; what took them so long?
Oh, they had to wait until it was confirmed that the pupils had lost their places at their first and second choice universities.
So where does that leave the students that were moved up by a grade. As my son was given a C but teachers predicted a D.
So where does that leave the students that were moved up by a grade. As my son was given a C but teachers predicted a D.
He will get a C - statement says better of two systems applies.
statement says better of two systems applies
Good move.
Glad I’m not involved in Uni admissions for this year. Now, will the cap on numbers be removed/raised?
So the plebs get their assessed grades, and the fee-payers get to keep their upgrades...
And schools that played strictly by the rules and pre-applied a 3 year trend to their own submissions will lose out relatively, while the chancers get their kids a nice boost.
So not ideal, but there was really no other way.
As usual though, dealt with badly. Just an announcement about grades. No advice for universities etc. (although there's a strong whisper the cap on places will be scrapped). More confusion to come but at least we've avoided GCSEs being another huge shitshow on Thursday.
So not ideal, but there was really no other way.
Least worst way out of this mess.
You really think the GCSE results will be out on Thursday? A last minute U turn doesn't inspire confidence in getting results out on time this week (like I had any confidence in this approach left...)
Can't see an issue as all the information is already in the system and they just need to pull out a slightly different set of numbers.
With the current lot running the show though, who knows?
Cap on uni places now officially removed too.
Is Boris still on his holidays?
Will williamson (be encouraged to) resign or will the chinless wonder say 'sorry' again and then continue blundering on?
Is Boris still on his holidays?
Someone's tweeted from the official PM account about all this, but odds on it wasn't actually him (it's coherent for a start).
Cap on uni places now officially removed too.
The consequences of this is huge!
Having spent all day on the phone to stressed/worried students (and some angry parents) I am planning my email to my MP and thinking about invoicing Gavin Williams for my time.
It won't end today though, once the CAGs go out we'll field all the complaints about students whose CAG was lower than they wanted.
At least it now feels like the two weeks I spent writing the CAG justification and then forming and moderating my courses CAGs was worthwhile!
This is what happens when you champion statistics over people’s lives.
Gavin Williamson is what happens when you champion adherence to a fundamentally stupid project over competence to hold office.
See also Chris Fayling, Little Liam Fox, Dominic Raaaaaaaaab, Little Matty Handjob, Liz 'The Truss' Truss etc.
Oven-ready **** up.
This is what happens when you champion statistics over people’s lives.
It’s what happens when your objective is to avoid grade inflation above all else. That’s a political decision. Plenty of other options for grading were possible. I guess UCAS will be having an interesting week now.
Anyway hopefully my other nephew will pass his gcse maths. He was 2 points under, then one on last resit. He needs a pass to be a firefighter.
Fingers crossed. I know someone who had to sit GCSE maths twice to get his C… and went on to get a Masters eventually… and has had all sorts of interesting careers since.
GCSE results actually get released to the schools midnight on Tuesday, so not a lot of time to replace the awarded grades with CAG grades, it's not simply cut and paste.
i_like_food already happening at my wife's school including threats of legal action and some parents playing the race card.
Removing the cap on UNI places is not going to help those institutions that have already full intakes, subjects like medicine and sciences where facilities limit the number of students, it's not just case of shoving a few more in the lecture theatre.
Gavin Williamson has now pushed Gove into second place for most hated education Secretary, not something I expected in my life time.
With a bit of luck, those who were messed about and their parents will remember who caused their anguish come election time. While many will forget what Cummings did on his little jaunt as it didn’t directly affect them, this did, jeopardising their or their children’s futures.
Think this is bad, what's going to happen when Brexit explodes in January, there won't be any U-turns then.
Tom I hope you're right but I think there are still many many Johnson apologists out there. My neighbour for example isn't a great Johnson fan but hates Stammer for some reason. I asked him why yesterday, seemed to boil down to Stammer basically disagreeing with everything Johnson does and not doing something himself, I fear my otherwise sound neighbour hasn't got a good grasp of the concept of the opposition. I know other people who think Johnson and co are doing an OK job, I don't think they really have a clue what Johnson is doing but the thought he might be as bad as the rest of us know he is scares them witless so they keep up the pretence. I'm just hoping this absolute mess and the job losses post furlough might wake enough folk up, it's terrible it's had to come to this.
A U-turn absolutely no one is surprised about..
My neighbour for example isn’t a great Johnson fan but hates Stammer for some reason. I asked him why yesterday, seemed to boil down to Stammer basically disagreeing with everything Johnson does and not doing something himself
My brexity, Boris loving parents, are regularly shocked & dismayed by the government's mishandling of this crisis from the start
Yet they keep on deciding Boris is actually doing the best.
Do people just not like admitting they backed an idiot?
This farce will no doubt be forgotten soon enough, though.perhaps not for the pupils & parents messed around by this.
Williamson as useless as you might imagine