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things getting grim in the states
Indeed, and to be fair, these are the latest of several incidents.
Hopefully they catch the shooter and can get some background.
Iran has never been successfully invaded
Iran, or the geographic territory currently occupied by the modern Iranian state?
I am sure that the United States could successfully invade Iran but they would have absolutely no chance whatsoever of permanently occupying it. If they attempted to it would be costly and end in humiliation.
In the 21st century large countries cannot be invaded and permanently occupied.
There is also of course no way that the United States would even want to permanently occupy a country like Iran.
things getting grim in the states
Whilst hugely sad, one nutter does not anarchy make. Given the polarity of politics in the US, and revving up and 'empowerment' Maga has given some very averagely intelligent people legally allowed to carry arms - I'm actually surprised there has not been more of this.
I travelled overland through Israel and Iran, amongst other countries, in the mid-80’s and came away thinking, thank goodness there are other countries between these two. Their total belief in themselves and their confidence that they will win, was striking.
Neither understands backing down, so this confrontation will likely be deadly, sustained and result in another recession for all.
Ah, my post is not showing 🤷♂️
Neither understands backing down, so this confrontation will likely be deadly, sustained and result in another recession for all.
To be fair Iran appears to have already backed down :
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/233138/Iran-to-respond-harsher-if-Israel-repeats-aggression
"If the Zionists intend to repeat their aggression, they will face a harsher and more powerful response from Iran’s armed forces."
That sounds very much like "we're done for now but we won't hesitate to respond if you repeat your aggression"
The Islamic State of Iran does not have a history of carrying out air strikes and invading its neighbours. In contrast I can't think any country which has attacked and invaded its neighbours more than Israel in recent decades.
To be fair Iran appears to have already backed down
Interesting.
We will see how it develops over time. I still can't see either side backing down long term, licking their wounds, maybe.
If you've not read the absolutely brilliant Tim Marshall books, 'Prisoners of Geography' and 'The Power of Geography' then I can't recommend them highly enough. They're absolutely fascinating. You'll not find a better summary of geopolitics and how countries end up like they do, due largely to their geography.
I've read Prisoners of Geography and thought it was ludicrously simplistic. The author seems to largely ignore sociological and cultural factors in his analysis, and glosses over counter examples to the evidence he presents.
its a fun read, but it felt a bit like 'Malcolm Galdwell for Geopolitics'
The big US super carrier in the Mediterranean might be giving Iran pause for thought.
We will see how it develops over time. I still can't see either side backing down long term, licking their wounds, maybe.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cvg92jnylzxo
Well Israel doesn't seem to be backing down, according to this BBC report Israel has said that this is the beginning of a "prolonged campaign" against Iran.
And Iran appears capable of inflicting damage on Israel, you don't expect to see Israeli buildings reduced to rubble. And I expect Israelis don't either.
If Israel is really determined that this is the beginning of a long campaign against Iran then it is going to be very expensive for the United States in terms of supplying missiles to Netanyahu for both attack and defensive purposes.
It is hard to see the personal benefits for Donald Trump in all of this. He wanted to go down in history as the US president that brought peace to the Middle East something which eluded so many previous US presidents!
Is he ever going to get that Nobel Peace Prize??
The big US super carrier in the Mediterranean might be giving Iran pause for thought.
I suspect that the Iranians are as confident as everyone else that the United States will not commit themselves to directly attacking Iran.
I've read Prisoners of Geography and thought it was ludicrously simplistic
I’m sure that a BBC foreign correspondent of 30 years experience would, like me, bow to your far superior knowledge on the subject 🙄
Maybe you could fill us all in on the particular issues you have with his analysis, given the benefit of your flawless and not even remotely patronising wisdom? In between your job at.. where?… the UN? CNN? Chanel 4 News?
Maybe you should write a book? I’m pretty sure it’d be a best seller, if your incredibly thorough and informative answer there is anything to go by
Just for once I’d like a reporter to do their **** ing job and quiz him on the statements/answers he gives, even something as simple as, “Mr President, could you explain the Abraham Accords and their significance for those who do not understand what they are”
Maybe you could fill us all in on the particular issues you have with his analysis,
I thought ransos explained his criticism in the bit which you copied and pasted?
"thought it was ludicrously simplistic"
and not even remotely patronising
Indeed
Just for once I’d like a reporter to do their **** ing job and quiz him on the statements/answers he gives, even something as simple as, “Mr President, could you explain the Abraham Accords and their significance for those who do not understand what they are”
I believe his majesty banned these journalists with dictate "fake news".
Ah, now I understand why Prisoners of Geography is "ludicrously simplistic", it's a children's book! I did not know that.
Shortlisted for the British Book Awards Children's Illustrated & Non-Fiction Book of the Year 2020"
https://www.waterstones.com/book/prisoners-of-geography/9781783964130
And now I also understand why you like it binners..... it communicates to the reader via pictures
If you can't make your point by providing pictures then it's probably not worth making!
To be fair Iran appears to have already backed down "we're done for now but we won't hesitate to respond if you repeat your aggression"
iran have launched more missiles at Israel tonight
israel looks set to make this a long (air) campaign, they seem to have taken out a lot of senior members of military and nuclear scientists, not that Iran were likely near nuke capable
the danger for Israel is that iran will respond further, their drones have been very effective targeting Ukraine in Russian hands, and while i can't see them launching nukes, something like a dirty bomb (drone) would be very easy to make , and even if the number of casualties low as a terror weapon its very effective.
trumps nobel peace prize is further away than ever
meanwhile the chances of more bloodshed in America today are not minimal, whether more lone gunmen or police and protesters clashing
I’m sure that a BBC foreign correspondent of 30 years experience would, like me, bow to your far superior knowledge on the subject 🙄
You seem to be upset by someone having a different opinion to you about a book. If you're happy with the pictures and the schoolboy reasoning then what I think shouldn't matter to you.
I hope the “Marsh family” are not planning on visiting the U.S. anytime soon
I can't think any country which has attacked and invaded its neighbours more than Israel in recent decades.
Apart from Russia, you mean, or does that not count because it's an empire rather than just a single country?
Really? How many more times than Israel do you think that Russia has attacked and invaded its neighbours in recent decades?
Really? How many more times than Israel do you think that Russia has attacked and invaded its neighbours in recent decades?
A bit more work needs to go into the definition of "neighbours"
"attacked and invaded" Are these two separate concepts?
Define "attacked"
Define "invaded"
It's entirely possible that the whole world is well into this, it seems to be what "humanity" does
I guess the lines get a bit blurred... Israel attacking Palestinians and grabbing pockets of land on a frequent basis.
But I suppose the same could be argued every time Russian military cross the boarder into Lukansk or Dontesk etc.
I guess it then becomes the technical difference between an attack, a siege and an occupation?
Net result is essentially the same though.
Of course the Israel attacks on Palestine have been going on for longer than I want to remember, but I don't think it would serve the conversation well to start tallying up and categorizing every individual event.
That really would be rearranging the deckchairs on the titanic.
I've read Prisoners of Geography and thought it was ludicrously simplistic.
Why Putin is desperate to hold Crimea is a pretty simple concept to understand. Why lines drawn on maps by Imperial powers can have long lasting and devastating political outcomes decades after the event is also a pretty simple idea to grasp. Things don't have to be complex to be true.
The big problem with all of this so-called Iran-Israel conflict is that it has the potential to set the entire region off.
The Houthis are Iran's main proxy now and if Syria is destabilised then there are thousands of IS militants next door to Israel, as well as a network in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and probably elsewhere
If Iran supplies them all then Red Sea navigation will effectively stop, but regardless, oil prices will rocket (that's begun) and economies plummet while Iran has its legitimacy bolstered by unprovoked attacks
Iran also has options, including removing itself completely from IAEA oversight and has already withdrawn from the next set of nuclear talks with the US
It wasn't a great move by Israel, the US will need to act fast on this and I'm not sure that the default tactic of threats is a good one
If you think Iran's support for their proxies is influential now, it'll be interesting to see what happens when Russia occupies the Chair of the UN security Council, and the sanctions currently imposed on Iran come to an end in October.
Things don't have to be complex to be true.
I haven't argued otherwise. I do argue that the simple geographical explanation is not always the correct one, which is where I think the book falls down.
I am sure that the United States could successfully invade Iran
Honestly, I doubt that even the US could. I list could all the ways in which it would be ridiculously difficult but it would make for a boring post, if you're bothered at all, here's a decent enough summary about why
If you think Iran's support for their proxies is influential now, it'll be interesting to see what happens when Russia occupies the Chair of the UN security Council, and the sanctions currently imposed on Iran come to an end in October.
Steady on nickc 🙂
The UN is another level of complication too much for my brain and it gets ignored by members when it suits.
The other issue is when countries vote in unexpected ways, e.g. the US voting against Ukraine when countries including China abstained on the Feb 2025 anniversary of the Russian invasion
A moment of levity in these dark times.
https://bsky.app/profile/teamcanadaforever.bsky.social/post/3lrmrzvumik2m
well the USSR ended their Afghan war in 89
modern russia hace invaded/ participated in wars in
Georgia
South Ossetia
Abkahzia
Transistria
Tajikistan
Chechnya
Dagestan
Checenya again
Georgia
Ukraine
Theyve also been very active in Africa, involved in several civil wars, including keeping Asad in power in Syria
meanwhile Trumps pitch for the peace prize not going so well...
If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!
Who recognises Chechnya as an independent country?
Thats really all this, and Putin's invasion of Ukraine, are all about - in each case the overwhelming motivation is one person desperately hanging on their job by constantly upping the ante. They have to escalate, and provoke escalation. And this makes all the 'peace negotiations' Trump thinks he can preside over ultimately fruitless. Putin agreeing peace would start a whole house of cards toppling domestically that would end up with him out of power and either dead, imprisoned or exiled in whatever country doesn't already have an arrest warrant out for him and the situation is not dissimilar for Netanyahu.
Who recognises Chechnya as an independent country?
Who recognises the existence of a Palestinian state?
A moment of levity in these dark times.
Ah yes - I'd forgotten the 'losers' and 'suckers' comments. He's a classy chap.
I am sure that the United States could successfully invade Iran
Honestly, I doubt that even the US could. I list could all the ways in which it would be ridiculously difficult but it would make for a boring post, if you're bothered at all, here's a decent enough summary about why
Why anyone want to? Any modern military that could gain air superiority and if it didn't care about civilian lives could destroy Irans ability to function as a country and be any sort of threat by destroying dams and oil production facilities. It'd be a serious war crime but I'd imagine Israel has plans in place.
Who recognises Chechnya as an independent country?
Who recognises the existence of a Palestinian state?
Well 147 out of 193 United Nations member states recognise the State of Palestine which represents approximately 75% of the international community, so the answer to the question is the governments of most countries.
I don't think any countries recognise Chechnya as an independent country, although Isis probably do.
Anyway let us assume that using the example of a state which for hundreds of years was a single entity and then fell apart resulting in totally predictable territorial disputes (think also of the territorial disputes concerning the breakup of Yugoslavia which in contrast only lasted a few decades) is a fair one, I think that I can change the wording of my original comment to make exactly the same point but in a slightly different way....
I can't think any country apart from Russia which has attacked and invaded its neighbours more than Israel in recent decades.
I can't think any country apart from Russia which has attacked and invaded its neighbours more than Israel in recent decades.
That's better. The omission of Russia was the only thing wrong with your original comment. I don't think many people can disagree with that categorisation of Israel, although if you take out the word 'neighbours' I guess there are other candidates.
Somehow bad ironic on the day I wondered if someone might have another go at nobbling off Tango, that two Democrat homes are intruded with at least two people being shot dead.
Quite a bit of footage online of the "No Kings" marches across the US yesterday - some quite big crowds were out. Not seen any hard policing as Trump had promised.
