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It's inevitable because of technology advancement. If aircraft carriers are still using the old technology (old man Nimitz) or less advance technology they will just be a big target sitting duck, especially when they are within range. The drone war is scary. "cheap as peanut" to make and as devastating as they can be.
chewkw
I am sure there will be no war between Taiwan and China, in order for Taiwan to reunite with China. Current view is 50-50 split. i.e. 50 for reunification, 50 for independence. The latter is slowly losing grounds.
I'm pretty sure that's is totally incorrect chewkw based on what I've read and the docs I've watched on the subject.
If anything, the increasingly aggressive attitude of China towards Taiwan has galvanised the populous against reunification particularly in the younger generations with less links to the mainland.
Although having said that China has had decades to plan, prepare, and rehearse, for the invasion in fine detail, and they won't move until ready to do so
The question is what is meant by "they". For example a lot of US analysts were/are fixated on 2027 as being the date which whilst it might not be the best date for China to invade it is the one best for Xi to create his legacy.
The argument seems mostly based around on China will be running into demographic issues soon and also that he has made several statements about it not being passed down to the next generation.
Obviously its all highly debatable but as the sage Tyson said everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth.
Just look at Ukraine for the month or so around the 2022 invasion. The general consensus seems to have been Putin would win in short order and the only question was about whether he would then have to deal with a guerrilla war.
If anything, the increasingly aggressive attitude of China towards Taiwan has galvanised the populous against reunification particularly in the younger generations with less links to the mainland.
Don't be surprised if you see a sudden reunification because the American will a make deal behind the door. The America know they are no match in terms of power or force in China's backyard.
Just look at Ukraine for the month or so around the 2022 invasion. The general consensus seems to have been Putin would win in short order and the only question was about whether he would then have to deal with a guerrilla war.
Ukraine is already a lost cause. It is a matter of total devastation or partial devastation. Russia started the war slowly in the hope of changing the Ukrainians' mind but the Ukrainian, with the encouragement of NATO/West, played straight into the narrative of victory. Ukrainian will wake up one day to realise that they have been played by NATO/West to test Russia.
The question is what is meant by "they". For example a lot of US analysts were/are fixated on 2027 as being the date which whilst it might not be the best date for China to invade it is the one best for Xi to create his legacy.
The argument seems mostly based around on China will be running into demographic issues soon and also that he has made several statements about it not being passed down to the next generation.
No, I don't think there will be invasion, as in full scale war. Will not happen but the American/NATO are trying to create one (as usual) in order to create hatred between the two population. Even if there is a war, China will not target the Taiwanese force but focus on the American.
Just look at Ukraine for the month or so around the 2022 invasion. The general consensus seems to have been Putin would win in short order and the only question was about whether he would then have to deal with a guerrilla war.
Ukraine is already a lost cause. It is a matter of total devastation or partial devastation. Russia started the war slowly in the hope of changing the Ukrainians' mind but the Ukrainian, with the encouragement of NATO/West, played straight into the narrative of victory. Ukrainian will wake up one day to realise that they have been played by NATO/West to test Russia. The regret will be too late as time has passed.
Don't be surprised if you see a sudden reunification because the American will a deal behind the door.
Well that doesn't sit very well with your earlier comment :
They Americans also want to concentrate on Asia Pacific and the Far East because they are losing grounds fast in that region.
I happen agree with you that the US wants to focus on China's growing power and influence which is easily the biggest threat to US global dominance both economically and militarily. It is one issue that Donald Trump has correctly identified imo.
And for that reason the US wants disengagement from the Middle East leaving their now much more limited national interests in the region in the hands of a Saudi-Israeli pact, and in the case of Donald Trump disengagement from Europe, so that they can concentrate elsewhere and move assets eastward to counter the Chinese threat.
Doing a backdoor deal with China to hand them the 14th largest economy in the world doesn't seem to be particularly good way to challenge their growing global influence
Doing a backdoor deal with China to hand them the 14th largest economy in the world doesn't seem to be particularly good way to challenge their growing global influence
Especially when you consider what that 14th largest economy economic specialisms are.
The recent fun over rare earth elements would be invisible next to if China got control of TSMC. All the really cutting edge foundries, not accidentally, are in Taiwan.
Bit of a problem banning AI chips being exported to China when they are now manufactured there.
Well that doesn't sit very well with your earlier comment :
It is consistence because they are "rushing" back (plus the fact that it is costly if they lose their jets etc in that region) in order to try the trick of "show of force" but that's not going to be effective now.
The backdoor deal will probably be focused on rare minerals as China control 80% of the world production. Without this minerals the entire technology sector will slow down. The modern world technology needs rare minerals and this is where the negotiation will start with America and China with Taiwan. i.e. America gets consumer grade rare minerals (not military) and China gets Taiwan in exchange.
Especially when you consider what that 14th largest economy economic specialisms are.
The recent fun over rare earth elements would be invisible next to if China got control of TSMC. All the really cutting edge foundries, not accidentally, are in Taiwan.
Bit of a problem banning AI chips being exported to China when they are now manufactured there.
China produce 80% of the rare earth minerals.
Controlling TSMC is not a big issue and whether they can have it or not is not really that important now. Because they are moving ahead regardless and it's matter of time they surpass them. China is currently one step behind only.
Nvidia AI chips etc will be surpassed as well. Well, 50% of the world scientists in this field is Chinese.
'Kin hell - you think things can't get worse, and then... 🙁
Kin hell - you think things can't get worse, and then...
Well, the gunboat diplomacy of the old is obsolete. The world has changed. Sunset for some and sunrise for others.
The world will not be dominated by a single entity anymore but a new choice will soon appear for the world to choose.
'Kin hell - you think things can't get worse, and then... 🙁
Are you referring to Chewkws return to this thread or the state of the world?!?
The world will not be dominated by a single entity anymore but a new choice will soon appear for the world to choose.
Wow! Just, wow!
if trump really is set on taking on China & keeping them off Taiwan, hes going about it in a very daft way
hes allowing their allies Russia to take pieces of europe , letting them test fighters and drones in real world situations
his withdrawal of usaid and funded media broadcasts across the world is allowing china to freely expand his influence particularly in Africa , china will happily move into the vacuum
his tariffs on China negate the threat of sanctions should they invade
meanwhile his tariff war on his closest allies are pushing them tighter into China's orbit
china are offering enhanced trading deals to countries, especially ones that will support their claim on Taiwan, trumps tariffs have made them very keen to do the deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czdy6qdln4jo
I think he just believes his own hype, - that hes a mega dealmaker who can fix everything, even as his deals fail to materialise
if he really wanted to take on China hed have to throw the kind of subsidies they do at manufacturing and instead of destroying Americas best universities, expanding them to take on chinese R&D
his withdrawal of usaid and funded media broadcasts across the world is allowing china to freely expand his influence particularly in Africa
One is of dominance (empire, colonies etc) while the other is of influence (trade).
his tariffs on China negate the threat of sanctions should they invade
Anything they do to China will bounce back to them worst.
I think he just believes his own hype, - that hes a mega dealmaker who can fix everything, even as his deals faul to materialise
The negotiation is not even concluded yet (no agreement whatsoever) and he started announcing it to the world.
if he really wanted to take on China hed have to throw the kind of subsidies they do at manufacturing and instead of destroying Americas best universities, expanding them to take on chinese R&D
That will cost a lot and something that will not happen overnight.
A conversational weapon seems a decent description of a few politicians to my mind poster on this thread
Edited for truth...
The United States indicated that it was aware of Israel's plans to strike Iran — but said it was not involved in the military operation that threatened to destabilize the region and derail the administration's diplomatic efforts.
But apparently they are now :
The United States indicated that it was aware of Israel's plans to strike Iran
Where do we think that tranche of USA missiles, already budgeted for, an ear-marked for delivery to Ukraine, but suddenly cancelled and diverted to 'the middle east' ended up?
No prizes for guessing the answer to that.
Seeing as he clearly didn’t have a clue about what Israel planned to do only the previous afternoon - he actually said it would be unhelpful as he thought diplomacy was going well with Iran - you’ve almost got to admire his sheer front for now claiming credit for it. Talk about trying to cover your arse
But then it’s Trump. He’s being led a merry old dance by both Netenyahu and Putin. He seems to be permanently clueless as to what’s actually happening in the real world, as opposed to what’s going on in his head…
Maybe he should consider spending less time on the golf course and concentrate a bit more on his actual job
Seems like God has decided to rain on Trump's parade.
https://twitter.com/ZTPetrizzo/status/1933679252630589757
Seems like God has decided to rain on Trump's parade.
I dunno about that, Trump knows exactly how to deal with bad weather..
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/donald-trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes/
Ukraine is already a lost cause. It is a matter of total devastation or partial devastation. Russia started the war slowly in the hope of changing the Ukrainians' mind but the Ukrainian, with the encouragement of NATO/West, played straight into the narrative of victory. Ukrainian will wake up one day to realise that they have been played by NATO/West to test Russia.Just look at Ukraine for the month or so around the 2022 invasion. The general consensus seems to have been Putin would win in short order and the only question was about whether he would then have to deal with a guerrilla war.
What a total crock.
Russia "started the war slowly" because nobody dared to mention that Ukraine wouldn't welcome an invasion. The first wave of troops packed their parade uniforms for their "walk-in" victory
to test Russia
They failed that test quite quickly. They initially got to 19 miles of the centre of Kyiv with the intention of taking the city within 3 days.
Within a month, Russia announced its withdrawal and only controls around 20% of Ukraine today.
If it's all NATOs fault, why doesn't Russia just turn around and head for home, or is NATO manipulating the Kremlin as well as Ukraine?
That will cost a lot and something that will not happen overnight.
Renault and Nissan have already developed rare earth (RE) free EV components following China controlling RE supply in 2020
The US seems to be heading backwards, but that isn't the case elsewhere
Well according to this article Trump was totally involved in the Israeli attack on Iran which was planned months ago and Trump made certain that hundreds of missiles required by Israel were secretly shipped out to them.
So why Trump's initial denial that he had anything to do with it ? Because of fear of a backslash from some of his most loyal supporters, as was the case when he ordered the attacks on the Houthis.
Trump had to eventually do a deal with the Houthis and stopped the attacks.
Seems like God has decided to rain on Trump's parade.
Be a damn shame if they all got swept away by a flood, eh?
Of biblical proportions?
'The way to Tehran has been paved’: IDF chiefs say Air Force to begin operating freely over Iranian capital
"According to the plans, air force fighter jets will begin to carry out strikes on targets in Tehran,” the military adds.
Carrying out air strikes on Tehran has nothing to do with degrading Iran's nuclear programme, Netanyahu has launched a full-scale war on Iran.
Another war is the last thing that the region needs, and I can't see any way how the United States can stay out of it, unless they cut all ties with Israel, which would end the war anyway.
Another war is the last thing that the region needs, and I can't see any way how the United States can stay out of it, unless they cut all ties with Israel, which would end the war anyway.
Agreed. It would take a US president with principles to eject Israel from their inner trusted circle. In theory Trump as a 2nd termer who does not need to get elected again could do the right thing. But Netanyahu (another old man - I wonder how his marbles are) has thrown the dice and figured there won't be a better time with Likud in power and a weak/confused/flip-flopper (but at the same time all powerful in terms of owning the house, senate and courts) in the White House.
Netanyahu has launched a full-scale war on Iran.
It's probably worth pointing out (again) that Iran is more or less invasion proof. The IAF - and TBH any other air-force (the USA included) can poke it with a stick, but that's pretty much it. In a few months time Iran's sanctions will be lifted - thanks to Trump walking away from negotiations in 2018, and Russia will take it's turn as Chair of the UN Security Council. All Iran needs to do right now is stall for time.
Whats the isreal / Netanyahu aim here? Iran seems to have been quiet recently or have I missed something?
netenyahu needs constant war to keep himself in power , or the far right coalition members will ditch him and the corruption investigations will restart....
also, trump desperate for a peace deal of any kind, was about to make a deal with Iran (just like the Obama one he tore up) and Israel werent happy with that at all.
All Iran needs to do right now is stall for time.
And of course build a few nuclear bombs in the meantime.
Unless the United States deploys its B-52s from Diego Garcia to bomb the deep underground facilities that Israel can't destroy. Although I have no idea how vulnerable either Iran facilities which they have had decades to build deep inside mountains, or B-52s, are.
Edit : In the case of B-52s " very vulnerable" would appear to be the answer (according to the Iranians)
In the case of B-52s " very vulnerable" would appear to be the answer (according to the Iranians)
The "Holy Defence News Agency"? - Seems a legitimate news source. B-52 would be vulnerable if they just decided "**** it, we'll just launch them and hope for the best" But's that's not how B52's are used by the USAF. If/When it came to using these bombers, There would've been weeks of SEAD operations beforehand. So all those air defence systems the Iran relies on would largely be gone. (off-topic)It's the failure of the Russian air forces to establish an air defence free environment in Ukraine that's largely seen the expansive use of drones in that war.
The "Holy Defence News Agency"? - Seems a legitimate news source. B-52
Not only that but they have clearly got God on their side. Even the infidels agree that the B-52s would be too vulnerable to be used directly over Iran :
“They are too vulnerable to air defence systems,” Col Cancian says, adding that the US would probably opt for the stealthier B-2 or B-1 bombers for missions inside Iranian air space
It's probably worth pointing out (again) that Iran is more or less invasion proof.
If you've not read the absolutely brilliant Tim Marshall books, 'Prisoners of Geography' and 'The Power of Geography' then I can't recommend them highly enough. They're absolutely fascinating. You'll not find a better summary of geopolitics and how countries end up like they do, due largely to their geography.
One of the chapters is about Iran and concludes exactly this. Iran has never been successfully invaded (and many have tried). Whichever way you enter the country is through horribly inhospitable terrain and they'd see you coming weeks before you got there. And you can never win a war with them purely with air power. A fact they are well aware of. Its why they're such shit-stirring gobshites.
Tim Marshall was on Five Live discussing Iranian politics yesterday, and his conclusion was 'be careful what you wish for' if they're hoping that this will start an uprising to overthrow the hated mullahs. He reckons that the most likely outcome of that would be a military coup and the Revolutionary Guard taking over the country and forming the next government. They would then be even more hostile to Israel and the west. The idea of some western style democracy taking hold is pure fantasy. The Revolutionary Guard give even less of a **** what the countries population want than the ayatollah
things getting grim in the states
. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/14/democratic-lawmakers-minnesota-shot
Iran has never been successfully invaded
Iran, or the geographic territory currently occupied by the modern Iranian state?
