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Trump has threatened to leave the country if he loses. Obviously, he may have to if he wants to avoid a lorryload of indictments from SDNY. Can't see anything firing up Biden supporters quite like that.
Maybe like Idi Amin, Trump will find a home for himself in the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia. They might even let him build a golf course.
The bunkers will be uuge.
(I'm now off to chastise myself for indulging in satire)
Maybe like Idi Amin, Trump will find a home for himself in the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia. They might even let him build a golf course.
TBH, Trump promising to go and live in another country if Biden wins reminds me of Paul Daniels pledge to leave the UK if Blair won in 1997. The ****er didn't move though.
So it’s Merton & Hislop we should blame?
I have got the impression from a few interviews that Hislop certainly feels somewhat responsible. HIGNFY certainly boosted his profile and helped him stand out from the crowd of bullingdon boys.
I am not sure I would call Hislop left wing either. He seems to be the rare species of traditional small c conservative but doesnt tend to let that get in the way of his day job.
Trump has threatened to leave the country if he loses
That is a threat, how?
Probably more of a threat to those wanting to prosecute him.
It’s a threat to wherever he chooses to go next. I’d like to think that most places would allow him to be extradited back when SDNY indicts him, but he could grease a few palms to stall that.
Kim Jong un has a nice rapport with him maybe the whole trump clan could move to Pyongyang. He just needs to bend the knee to the rocketman in a public setting.
Or I can see him as a feudal warlord in charge of a district in Afghanistan or something
It’s a threat to wherever he chooses to go next.
True. Maybe if he announces the target country there will be another foreign state interfering on his behalf aside from Russia.
Edward Snowden might be getting nervous about a new housemate.
As threats go it is like someone saying unless I fight them they will start smacking themselves over the head with a baseball bat.
Trump has threatened to leave the country if he loses
That is a threat, how?
He's coming to the UK.... that's how
Or I can see him as a feudal warlord in charge of a district in Afghanistan or something
You’re joking, right? As awesome as he thinks he is, any proper warlord would walk over him without breaking a step. There’s a huge gulf between his type of deal making and desire to be top dog, and a drug warlord’s easy decision making on killing people that interrupt his operations. Trump has neither the money or the balls for that.
and a drug warlord’s easy decision making on killing people that interrupt his operations.
Yeah the owe the bank ten thousand it is your problem but owe them a billion and its theirs is unlikely to work with the other warlords. They will go for option three of no money but a spectacularly unpleasant death pour encourager les autres
There’s a huge gulf between his type of deal making and desire to be top dog, and a drug warlord’s easy decision making on killing people that interrupt his operations. Trump has neither the money or the balls for that.
He doesn't have the money or balls but he does have the appetite - Heres Miles Taylor - Former Whitehouse Chief of Staff speak on the New Abnormal
But what I was going to say is even worse than that are some of the ideas that the president had for dealing with migrants at the border. So he wanted to maim them and tear gassed them and shoot them. And I'm not even being hyperbolic. So like we sat in a meeting one time where the president was well, this was actually several occasions, but where he was talking about what he wanted us how he wanted us to sign the border wall
One day the focus was on the spikes. And he was really upset because from the pictures we were showing him of the steel bollards, he said the spikes aren't sharp enough. He said, I want you to go back and run me a cost estimate. How can they be sharper? And we said, well, Mr. President, look, this has been designed by the operators. This is what the operators say they need. They said, yeah, but I want them so sharp that I want it to pierce human flesh so it'll go right through their hands or arms.
They try to climb it, and this is only like a couple of weeks before then, we had an incident at the border, a caravan was rushing to a border station. And look, when that happened happens and people are actually rushing a border station. You've got to do crowd control, right, because it could be a threat to the officers in that danger. So there was a limited instance where officers had to deploy tear gas because they were worried that some of the people in the caravan were armed and they were storming the gates.
The president thought not that this was an isolated incident, he thought this was a new policy we were instituting where we were just gassing people across the border. So he called up the secretary and said, it's like this is just absolutely amazing. I mean, what you're doing, that you're so this is so tough, the gassing of the migrants, so tough. And I remember we're sitting there, he's on speakerphone. I was like, he has no idea.
I said he has no idea that this is like a incident isolated and that we didn't order it. I mean, his perception was, oh, the secretary must have ordered let's start gassing them. And then worse than that, as people know, because he later said it publicly, which we tried to get him not to wear the multiple occasions he suggested, why don't we just shoot them? Like, why can't we just shoot them coming towards the border?
And we had to explain to the president that the rules of engagement don't work that way unless all of these women and children fleeing violence and persecution have AK47s on them. No, they're not an imminent threat. That's how it happens. And then he dialed it back a bit. He's like, OK, I understand you don't want to kill him, but couldn't we just shoot them in the legs to slow them down? This is the president, United States talking here.
Yes I'm joking. It's just funny to imagine the rest of his life in rural Afghanistan though, and Ivanka too. The lack of availability of lipgloss is bound to affect her
2.3m votes and 50/50 last time.
What's that graphic showing? I can't find a source but I'm guessing that it's a total of the early votes so far, and some sort of polling to apply a voting expectation for those?
All it seems to be showing is that there is, unsurprisingly, an increase in early/postal voting across the board.
What does make it a bit of an outlier was it was being claimed it was more democrats doing early/postal voting.
I'm guessing that a lot of OAP republicans are getting their votes in early because they know there's a good chance they'll die of coronavirus before polling day.
What’s the source? Because I can’t find it on TargetSmart website or Twitter as yet?
Edit, you can select by state here https://targetearly.targetsmart.com
Think it might just be affiliations of early voters. Don't understand why you must register a party but meh usa. So not necessarily what they voted?
It's modelled (i.e. they predict who they voted for). This is the National view...
'TargetSmart has developed a proprietary partisanship classification model to determine the likely political affiliation of a voter. This predictive model is trained using survey data and incorporates various data points such as vote history, party affiliation (where available), consumer interests, and demographic information to make a prediction of how likely a person is to align with the Democratic party. Those marked as Unaffiliated did not fall into a score range where we could make a confident prediction of affiliation.'
It’s a threat to wherever he chooses to go next. I’d like to think that most places would allow him to be extradited back when SDNY indicts him, but he could grease a few palms to stall that.
Well he's just had another golf course approved in Scotland, right next to the one he had approved last time with the promise of new houses, hundreds of jobs etc. which never transpired.
So whoever's palm he greased last time is obviously still on the books... ☹
Yeah, it's from trumps press sec
https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1317541928603365378?s=19
As Jamze points out its not really party registration (michigan doesn't record that data)
Even then its assuming registered republicans will vote trump, with his poll numbers amongst oaps through the floor, that's a big gamble!
Got her Twitter account back then. She was claiming to Hannity she was permanently banned.
Well he’s just had another golf course approved in Scotland, right next to the one he had approved last time with the promise of new houses, hundreds of jobs etc. which never transpired.
So whoever’s palm he greased last time is obviously still on the books…
IIRC last time the council ruled against and were overruled by Salmond / some government flunky
I don’t know, I think a mostly red graph might encourage some otherwise complacent dem-leaners to votes.
There’s been too much triumphant celebration by the left but I think it’s premature and also potentially risky. Yes, the polls look good right now but if people become complacent then that margin narrows very rapidly.
Probably the more reliable bit to take from all the targetsmart stuff. 4.5 times the ballots received at this point compared with 2016.
The real worry is that trump will use mail in and early votes as a way to block one's he thinks will hurt him
In many (all?) states counting doesn't start until election day, so there's ample opportunity for him to dismiss mail in voters etc he has spent ages telling us are fraudulent anyway
In many (all?) states counting doesn’t start until election day
I read a NYT article that said most states are now processing and counting mail-in ballots as they come in. Certainly lots of people posting pics of their vote being confirmed as counted on Twitter and stuff.
'Does returning one early mean that it will be counted early?
Generally, yes.
“Early arriving vote-by-mail ballots are typically the first ballots counted,” said Chris Miller of the California secretary of state’s office.
Ballots will be processed as they come in. Legislation passed in response to the pandemic allows for mail-in ballots to be processed and counted sooner than in previous years, up to 29 days before the election.'
Although is this the type of legislation the Republicans are fighting in the courts?
There’s been too much triumphant celebration by the left but I think it’s premature and also potentially risky. Yes, the polls look good right now but if people become complacent then that margin narrows very rapidly.
My impression is that anti-Trump voters are incredibly energized to throw him out and want this to be a landslide so they'll turn out even if they think it's a safe victory. However...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317962107481186304
Re odds, just think of it like any other odds. A lot of people do seem to be treating a 10% chance of more trump as pretty safe, but would you gamble your house on a 90% bet, or your health, or your life? Probably not.
A lot of people do seem to be treating a 10% chance of more trump as pretty safe, but would you gamble your house on a 90% bet, or your health, or your life? Probably not.
An election is a bit different to gambling though, so I'm never really sure what people intend by making this analogy. In gambling, you are participating willingly and generally aren't forced to go all-in on a single bet. For example, if Japan was playing South Africa at rugby and someone offered you 50/50 odds, then putting a solid bet on South Africa would be smart. They aren't 100% certain to win, but they would be very strong favorites. You wouldn't bet the house, but betting a month's pocket money would be reasonable.
In an election, you are basically a participant whether you like it or not, beyond whether you actually bet money on the outcome. The outcome will affect you whether you vote or not, but for most voters, their vote won't count for much so whether a rational person would make the effort to vote is more complicated. If you live in California, staying home on election day because the weather sucks is not going to make any difference - the state is utterly dominated by Democrats. If you live in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, etc., your vote is much more valuable, so you have much more interest in voting. Having said that, if I lived in California, I'd definitely vote on the grounds that the bigger the victory margin, the easier it will be for Biden to govern. I suspect a lot of anti-Trump voters feel the same way.
It's just a good way to revisualise probability, that's all. And generally pretty good when people say things like "the polls were wrong last time" or "don't worry, it's going to be at least 51% for remain"
The New York Post is running with it, it’s not some internet horseshit.
Rudy Giuliani gave it to his friends at the Rupert Murdoch owned Post, it wasn't written by journalists. Management wanted to put journalists' names on it to try and give it credibility, but they refused so they put the name of an ex-Sean Hannity staffer who is friends with Steve Bannon. The Posts' own journalists are leaking to the NY Times because they know it's bogus and don't want their names associated with it.
So, no, it's not internet horseshit, it's Russian horseshit passed on by Rudy Giuliani (Trump's lawyer) and Steve Bannon (former Trump strategy advisor).
https://twitter.com/AlmostFurious/status/1317948498650845184
Moderator Kristen Welker of NBC released the six topics for the debate Friday
Trump is already crying at his Wisconsin rally that Welker is "extraordinarily unfair" and Tweeting much the same:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317544121112866822
Surely the "boo hoo, everyone is against me" narrative is starting to irritate even Republicans?
Surely the “boo hoo, everyone is against me” narrative is starting to irritate even Republicans?
It's politics. You win the game by getting everyone (political allies, media, celebrities and ultimately voters) to support your campaign. If everyone is against you, then you're just losing the game. Moaning about it makes them you sound impotent.
The GOP seem to have stuck by Trump for way longer than I thought they would. They have no self-respect at all.
Rudy Giuliani gave it to his friends at the Rupert Murdoch owned Post,
So Rudy admits he had a laptop he claims contains child porn in his possession for a significant period of time, but chose not to alert the police or FBI so they could make proper enquiries, but instead waited until he could pass it to a mate on a newspaper during an election. Ok, then.
If Trump loses... he's not going to stop moaning... and his supporters won't stop buying into it... I know he didn't need a majority of votes to become president... but he needs even fewer to sow division for years to come. A Trump loss won't be a clean break from his presidency for Americans.
A Trump loss won’t be a clean break from his presidency for Americans.
Good. Let's hope the GOP vote is completely split between a more moderate candidate that can appeal to the undecided voter (Mitt Romney has been vocally anti-Trump), and the white trash Trump supporting racists.
Nailing colours to the mast. Any more wake up calls, America? Slight aside, isn’t it some kind of code violation to alter the stars and stripes?
https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1317620534620741632?s=20
Rudy was flashing an LG laptop on Louder with Crowder that came up on my YouTube feed this morning. A bit puzzled how that supports the story of MacBook Pros being taken to a repair shop.
