I am assuming he won't for a whole variety of reasons, including the one that the "maybe-I-will-maybe-I-won't" leverage disappears instantly the moment that US starts bombing.
Trump thrives on making threats.
It's not just US stuff either there is a huge amount of flying time being done . I'm hoping it's to keep the pilots hours up and nothing else.
Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, expressed his utmost respect for the Israelis’ courage, saying they were doing the rest of the world’s dirty work.
Rather than condemning Israel for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, and launching an unprovoked attack on a neighbour, European politicians are queuing up to support Netanyahu and his far-right government.
It must all be music to Netanyahu's rather ample ears. I bet he can't believe his luck.
It’s ****ing sickening to listen to the usual shit spewing forth regarding Israel’s right to blah….blah….blah….blah……
I originally had sympathy….as for now?…..I’ll keep that to myself
And once again we see all the other weak cowardly "leaders" Starmer and his European counterparts fall into line.
I may be too kind, but recently I have been reading and listening to the workings of good (and bad) diplomacy.
So I tend to cut (some) people a lot of slack.
It's a very hard thing to manage well, both at an international level ,and often in a workplace/family setting.
Failed diplomacy can often look weak and spineless* when it doesn't work ,or appear to change nothing, but if parties dig in and stop communicating ,all bets are off.
*even more so when you don't have all the information and are not directly involved in the process.
Mates brother has been in foreign office for years in various attaché roles/ambassadorship etc in ****stan/Afghanistan/india/italy (and others) and recently Somalia, got an OBE for his services last week and I can only imagine what’s being said by those around him, I know what he’s been saying/thinking regarding the Middle East where he’s spent the majority of his life and what he considers of trumps mutterings but I’ll keep that to myself
There is genuine…genuine concern as to where this is heading
Looks like Trumps been busy with the real important ‘bid stuff’ he said he needed to attend to.
Literally
The installation of two massive flagpoles on the White House lawns.
Far be it from me to suggest that only someone with a severe inadequacy complex in certain departments would need two enormous erections in his garden
My armchair 10cents worth, I think trump will hit Iran. He has recently shifted anti drone weapons meant from Ukraine to the Middle East maybe in anticipation of needing to defend their bases, signed off a deal with starmer the other day, was this to keep him onside for when he asks to use UK bases etc for his planes, with Israel taking out lots Irans air defences it opens up a free run for the bombers, cobra room and situation room meetings etc. As I say, I know nothing but feel certain things are pointing to a potential strike, or maybe that’s what he wants Iran to think but I don’t think he is that clever.
My armchair 10cents worth, I think trump will hit Iran
He'll have to clear it with his boss Vladimir beforehand.
Vlads oil price will rocket so he will be fine
And if some Republican politicians have their way Congress too
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-war-powers-act-congress-iran-israel/
Vlads oil price will rocket so he will be fine
The Saudis won't be happy..... they like to buy cheap Russian oil
Isn't there a price cap on Russian oil?
"One key issue for the UK would be whether to give permission for the US to fly B-2 stealth bombers from the Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean"
Hahaha......"whether to give permission"!!! 😂😂😂
Because yeah, Sir Keir Starmer might say "no" to Donald Trump ! LOL !
I think we can safely say that there is no chance of any UK prime minister growing a spine anytime soon!
Hahaha......"whether to give permission"!!!
Because yeah, Sir Keir Starmer might say "no" to Donald Trump ! LOL !
I think we can safely say that there is no chance of any UK prime minister growing a spine anytime soon!
Remember, he is a British PM so need to maintain some sort of posture and dignity.
He cannot say "yes" so the best he can do is to say "might" with a straight face to the media, otherwise he might look bad in the eye of the puppet masters (two of them above him).
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-israel-war-2672386204/
A new The Economist/YouGov poll conducted on June 13-16 found that 53% of Trump voters said the U.S. should not join the war, versus just 19% who said the U.S. military should. Sixty percent of all Americans surveyed agreed that the U.S. should not get involved.
19% of Trump supporters in favour of bombing Iran is incredibly low, especially when you take into account that Trump claims to be actively considering it.
I know that firstly Trump doesn't have to worry about winning the next US presidential election, and secondly pissing off his detractors doesn't bother him in fact he probably relishes it, as a narcissist his adoring supporters undoubtedly matter to him.
I cannot think of one single personal benefit for Trump if he was to give the go-ahead to bomb Iran, and in the end all that matters is what benefits him, and in contrast quite a few serious risks.
as a narcissist his adoring supporters undoubtedly matter to him.
His supporters do tend to be able to seamlessly switch opinions to follow him/the propaganda though.
Just take the Afghanistan pull out which switched from being his masterpiece which Biden wouldnt be able to reverse to "look what Biden did".
There are polls and there are polls 🤔
JL Partners are quite well-regarded.
MAGA voters are supportive and are President Trump's base
MAGA supporters will believe whatever Trump tells them to, its a cult, innit
I suspect theres a big difference in people that are happy for B52s to drop megatonnes from a great height vs boots on the ground protracted deployment of troops
as a narcissist his adoring supporters undoubtedly matter to him.
Its a bit less binary that that - narcissists thrive of the cheers - on approval from people they seek approval from. But also, like a pantomime villain, they thrive on boos from the people they don't. Its all attention - so long as they are the focus thats all that matters
Theres no incentive for Don for him to be a unifying figure - to unite the country, even less so now that theres no upcoming election to fight - his friends and his foes give him the same thrill. The more polarised the country becomes - and the more he is the totem for that polarisation the better. Being seen to be an embattled minority, the plucky underdog is better still
The people who turned up to his birthday parade and the millions that protested on the same day across the country are, for him, on the same side of the balance sheet. Lets face it, even thrived on someone trying to shoot him in the head.
as a narcissist his adoring supporters undoubtedly matter to him.
Its a bit less binary that that - narcissists thrive of the cheers - on approval from people they seek approval from. But also, like a pantomime villain, they thrive on boos from the people they don't. Its all attention - so long as they are the focus thats all that matters
Theres no incentive for Don for him to be a unifying figure - to unite the country, even less so now that theres no upcoming election to fight - his friends and his foes give him the same thrill. The more polarised the country becomes - and the more he is the totem for that polarisation the better. Being seen to be an embattled minority, the plucky underdog is better still
The people who turned up to his birthday parade and the millions that protested on the same day across the country are, for him, on the same side of the balance sheet. Lets face it, even thrived on someone trying to shoot him in the head.
So Donny gives Benny free reign to ethnically cleanse Gaza (with a kicker on being allowed to 'help' regenerate it when all those pesky Palestinians have gone), so Benny can take out Iran's nuclear programme in return? A modern day coalition of bastards.
It probably really is that simple in Trump's gang boss brain. If WWIII kicks off as a result? **** it, he's an old man anyway.
There are polls and there are polls 🤔
JL Partners are quite well-regarded.
MAGA voters are supportive and are President Trump's base
Is a poll by a polling company founded by Theresa May's pollster, and apparently "shared exclusively" with a strongly Trump supporting newspaper, certain to be more reliable than an Economist/YouGov poll?
Here's more detail on the level of support along party lines.
When broken down by party affiliation, the numbers remained relatively similar. Sixty-five percent of Democrats, 53% of Republicans and 61% of independents say the United States should not get involved in the conflict. Just 15% of Democrats, 23% of Republicans and 11% of independents say the U.S. should enter the fight.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/economist-yougov-poll/2025/06/17/id/1215378/
This is probably terrifyingly accurate…
There are polls and there are polls 🤔
JL Partners are quite well-regarded.
MAGA voters are supportive and are President Trump's base
Is a poll by a polling company founded by Theresa May's pollster, and apparently "shared exclusively" with a strongly Trump supporting newspaper, certain to be more reliable than an Economist/YouGov poll?
I agree, but you have to ask what gets presented as fact where it matters 😉
I agree, but you have to ask what gets presented as fact where it matters
Pretty sure I heard on the R4 media show yesterday that social media is now where the majority of American citizens get their news from.
Which is exactly how we ended up with this whole Brexit-MAGA-Trump shitshow in the first place.
I agree, but you have to ask what gets presented as fact where it matters 😉
In this case it was the Financial Times. I was reading an opinion piece in the FT where they provided a link to that Economist/YouGov poll to make a point about MAGA opposition to the US bombing Iran.
The level of opposition from Trump supporters surprised me which is why I posted on here. The FT article is behind a paywall so I didn't bother posting it.
This is the article if the paywall isn't a problem
https://www.ft.com/content/02d13566-27ce-48b5-932d-22c49365b5c3
After the twin debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan I doubt there’s much enthusiasm anywhere for potentially getting sucked into yet another middle eastern quagmire.
Particularly in this case, where you’ve got a proxy country that has been itching to do the job for you for decades and all you have to do is keep sending them arms and let them get on with it.
They're a bunch of mad, genocidal bastards, obviously, but that doesn’t seem to have bothered anyone in America so far.
Usual rules apply. Make sure there’s no plan whatsoever for what is left once the dust settles, ensuring that it’ll invariably be far worse
I agree with you Ernie, but see Oakwood ^^
Is the FT the Florida Times? 😊
but see Oakwood
This ?
"social media is now where the majority of American citizens get their news from"
I did. Am I suppose to conclude that the reason for strong opposition within the MAGA movement to bombing Iran is because of social media?
Well maybe it is. Although Donald Trump's election pledge of ending "forever wars" was a central plank in his reelection bid, so there's also that.
Discussion on trumps headlong rush into authoritarianism
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/19/trump-us-autocracy-authoritarianism
He is further down the road in 6 months than others who we all recognise as authoritarian were in the same timespan
To stand in power forever, start a major war that last forever.
It’s just been on the radio news that trump has decided to wait for up to two weeks before taking a decision on whether to bomb Iran.
That reads to me that someone has told him that it is a really bad idea, so he kicks it down the line for two weeks with lots of bluff during that time, and suddenly we’ll have a deal that he , and only he, has brought about.
Two weeks is his default period.
It's the time when it's judged that most of us will have moved on to the next heavily promoted idea/deal/flag pole story.
"Two weeks" has been used a few times in Ukraine already
It’s just been on the radio news that trump has decided to wait for up to two weeks before taking a decision on whether to bomb Iran.
Makes sense to me, the moment he announces a decision the leverage provided by a threat instantly disappears.
You can't expect Iran to feel pressurized into signing anything if either they are told that the US will not bomb them if don't sign or that the US will bomb them even if they do.
And yeah I am sure he has been told that it would be a bad idea to bomb Iran. What do we think would happen if Iran launched, simultaneously, 100 hypersonic ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier, along with perhaps a couple of hundred drones ? What would a sunk aircraft carrier do to Donald Trump's standing with the American people, especially with the MAGA movement?
Iran has proved that they can overwhelm Israeli air defences, among the best air defences in the world, there is no reason to assume that they can't overwhelm US air defences.
Iran appears to have encouraged the Israelis to use up their stock of Arrow interceptor missiles on lower tech Iranian missiles, they now appear to be rolling out their more advanced ballistic missiles such as the Fattah-1s. By all accounts the US are now starting to run low on Arrow-3 missiles due to their own stocks being used to replenish Israel's.
Iran appears to have encouraged the Israelis to use up their stock of Arrow interceptor missiles on lower tech Iranian missiles, they now appear to be rolling out their more advanced ballistic missiles such as the Fattah-1s. By all accounts the US are now starting to run low on Arrow-3 missiles due to their own stocks being used to replenish Israel's.
President Trump has a pattern of using "two weeks" to do nothing after he has promised action.
He's used this several times over Russia "tapping" him along in peace talks with Ukraine.
The US doesn't use Arrow 3, which is a joint US-Israel developed and financed project. It's unlikely that the US would hold stock, apart from production.
The low stock thing might be a ploy https://www.newsweek.com/arrow-3-interceptor-missile-us-involvement-iran-2087292
The US system is THAAD
on my daily train commute i have seen a disturbing number of well dressed early 30s people watching the likes of Brendan O'Neal and Jordan Peterson videos on their phones, tiktok and Instagram with its 2 minute soundbites are insidious, shit stirring clowns like them legitimise the far right
we will have our own Trumpism, maybe not reform but whatever it morphs into next
President Trump has a pattern of using "two weeks" to do nothing after he has promised action.
Although the USA does seem to have spent rather a lot of money already on the airforce. Might undermine the doge "savings".
Reported as two dozen tankers flown to Europe plus a squadron of F-22s.
Then a bunch of fighters going from Europe supported by the tankers to somewhere in the middle east.
And yeah I am sure he has been told that it would be a bad idea to bomb Iran. What do we think would happen if Iran launched, simultaneously, 100 hypersonic ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier, along with perhaps a couple of hundred drones ? What would a sunk aircraft carrier do to Donald Trump's standing with the American people, especially with the MAGA movement?
The US aircraft carrier is a big target for the hypersonic missiles. If the aircraft carrier is sunk then Trump's presidency will sink with it too but even if it is sunk, Iran will get good beating after that. Therefore, they will all sink together.
In the meantime, both sides are waiting for each other to deplete their stock.
If Iran could destroy all the aircraft runways, the fighter jets will have to be diverted to Cyprus or other places. 8hr flying is not easy and will require mid-air refuelling and that will be a major logistic nightmare. 100+ jets? Some will have to land in the sea.
on my daily train commute i have seen a disturbing number of well dressed early 30s people watching the likes of Brendan O'Neal and Jordan Peterson videos on their phones, tiktok and Instagram with its 2 minute soundbites are insidious, shit stirring clowns like them legitimise the far right
we will have our own Trumpism, maybe not reform but whatever it morphs into next
Generation Tate 😑
Brendan O'Neal and Jordan Peterson videos
Whilst it can be monetised there’s always going to be grifters.
Re: the CNN piece ^^
Trump can maintain control of thousands of California national guardsmen, appeals court rules
It's a lot more limiting than the headline would suggest. All that they've in effect said is that the President has authority to deploy the NG, which we know.
They've pushed back on the DOJ case that neither a state governor nor a judge can examine a Presidential Authority to deploy the NG, the so-called review. This upholds the ability of the courts to review presidential decisions, i.e. democracy
They didn't rule on whether the President's authority to deploy the NG was lawfully used, which is what Judge Breymer will examine later today. No doubt there will be further appeals on that if Judge Breymer finds for California.
It's significant that the sporadic car-burning, etc was used to the government's advantage on appeal. Keep it peaceful^^!
The appeals court said the final condition had probably been met because protesters hurled items at immigration authorities' vehicles, used trash dumpster as battering rams, threw Molotov cocktails and vandalized property, frustrating law enforcement. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-court-lets-trump-retain-control-california-national-guard-now-2025-06-20/
Have we done the GENIUS Act? This article (and the comments) are worth reading
Breath-taking
Merkley remains one of the staunchest opponents to the GENIUS Act. In a statement, he alleged that the Senate passing the bill was essentially "rubberstamping Trump's crypto corruption." https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/06/senate-passes-genius-act-criticized-as-gifting-trump-ample-opportunity-to-grift/
It's significant that the sporadic car-burning, etc was used to the government's advantage on appeal. Keep it peaceful^^!
In other words the court, instead of reining in a dictator, accepted entirely spurious justification for his actions.
megalols
In more hopeful news, Melania initiated renovations sees the rose garden being dug up in preparation for a patio.
Hopefully she doesn't let the opportunity pass...
An oldie but goodie from the aforementioned Menwith Hill
“The military policeman in his gate house blinked as the first bus arrived, followed by a van full of fancy dress, aluminium ladders and equipment. But he only reached for his phone when 20 people breezed past him to the theme tune from Mission: Impossible.
More followed. Within three minutes, 30 walking missiles and others were running around the base. Three guards and a colleague waved their arms and held a few activists.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/jul/04/usa.world
Mushahid Hussain, a former chair of the senate defence committee in ****stan’s parliament, suggested nominating Trump for the peace prize was justified.
“Trump is good for ****stan,” he said. “If this panders to Trump’s ego, so be it. All the European leaders have been sucking up to him big time.”
To be fair it is hard to disagree with the logic behind comment and certainly the UK prime minister's unprecedented offer of a second state visit to Trump was obviously designed to appeal to his vanity.
Edit : Blimey, STW's swear filter is a tad sensitive!
I think Mr Hussain is right - Trump has already brought peace to Ukraine and unprecedented stability to the middle east via reining in Israel. Now that he's apparently turning to resolving India/****stan too, what more does he need to do, FFS ? He's nailed-on IMO
Presumably "good for ****stan" actually means that he's sharing the "good stuff" with ****stani ministers?
Meanwhile Trump cements his 'man of the people' credentials and endears himself to his working class base by telling them they have too many holidays (something American employers are renowned for - giving their workers too many holidays) and they should all be back at work, pronto!
He's nailed-on IMO
You're forgetting DRC/Rwanda, Kosovo/Serbia, Ethiopa/Egypt, the Abraham Accords and probably a few more
Meanwhile Trump cements his 'man of the people' credentials and endears himself to his working class base by telling them they have too many holidays (something American employers are renowned for - giving their workers too many holidays) and they should all be back at work, pronto!
The orange ****er of a President spends a majority of the time playing golf, I’d laugh like **** to see him suffer a massive heart attack or stroke whilst swinging a club, but then I’d start greeting as we’d end up with JD Vance 😪 ,
An oldie but goodie from the aforementioned Menwith Hill
“The military policeman in his gate house blinked as the first bus arrived, followed by a van full of fancy dress, aluminium ladders and equipment. But he only reached for his phone when 20 people breezed past him to the theme tune from Mission: Impossible.
More followed. Within three minutes, 30 walking missiles and others were running around the base. Three guards and a colleague waved their arms and held a few activists.”
Times have certainly changed as I imagine they'd get shot if they tried it now! It's locked down very tight.
Edit : Blimey, STW's swear filter is a tad sensitive!
When my eyes scan over these swear filtered sentences, my brain just interprets it as ****stain, which is often quite apt because it's in connection with Donald Trump.
If Trump actually gets the Nobel Peace prize I'll eat my hat. Nevermind that I don't own a hat, nor would I eat it if I did, irrelevant and okay because I'm just ****ing lying my arse/ass off. It wouldn't surprise me because that's how upside down everything is/appears to be currently.
Such a peacemaker. ****er.
Oh for ****s sake!
Iran's warning of the potential consequences brings The Sum of All Fears to mind. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
I can see that the WW3 and Trump threads will become a cross-posted mess
you just know he still expects that nobel peace prize
I wonder what the 'World Go Home, we're the best we can go it alone", complacent, burger-chewing, redneck, MAGA ****wits are making of this.
I suspect a backlash will be coming to middle America in the near-ish future.
🙄
Nice to see Congress keeping President's ability to wage war in check, as per the Constitution. Trump has his Duma now, only the removal of the last vestiges of free and fair elections to go.
I wonder what the 'World Go Home, we're the best we can go it alone", complacent, burger-chewing, redneck, MAGA ****wits are making of this.
Their interpretation will be guided by whatever Fox tells them. I imagine that 'America First, no new wars' will become 'Look at our strong president, support the troops!' like flicking a switch.
If Trump actually gets the Nobel Peace prize I'll eat my hat.
I'll be pretty surprised if he actually gets his 2nd state visit. It's been sufficient, diplomatically, to just say he'll get one. No actual date has been set. Were getting quite close now to the 'September' that was suggested when the visit was first announced and there seems to be zero preparation for that.
The 'suggestion of a nomination' of a Nobel is all thats required to get his attention. Theres no need to actually follow through with it.
Be better if the Iranians declare a ceasefire, go back to negotiations and the Ayotollah got the peace prize.
and the Ayotollah got the peace prize.
What? another peace prize for Iran? The ink's barely dry on Narges Mohammadi's one 🙂
" Your're gambling with WW3 !"
Mmmm !
Well one thing that Trump said that turns out to be true, the world is queuing up to kiss his ass, and it is an embarrassing spectacle.
maybe they are going to be next in line for a regime change courtesy of the orange man-baby
Be better if the Iranians declare a ceasefire, go back to negotiations and the Ayotollah got the peace prize.
Oh, please this. I would dearly love to be there when Trump is told that the Iranians won the Nobel peace prize after all this.
Another first for Trump. Swearing on air.
"Trump says Iran and Israel ‘don't know what the f*** they’are doing’ over ceasefire"
Another first for Trump. Swearing on air.
Dropped the F Bomb
I suspect, on the contrary - Israel knows exactly what the **** they are doing. The only person in all this thats confused is Donald.
Another first for Trump. Swearing on air.
Dropped the F Bomb
Better than the A or H bomb I suppose.
Better than the A or H bomb I suppose.
Most problematic is the B Bomb. Mainly because people aren't sure if you've got a stutter.