Forum menu
Plenty of Americans with their roots in the Baltic states as well, my FiL is of Latvian extraction.
Will this help counteract, Trump's (mildly baffling) improved numbers with black and Latino men? Guess we'll find out on Wednesday.
Although the result of the usually very reliable Selzer poll in Iowa showing the state in contention rather than being safely in Trump's column seems to be causing some serious head scratching.
My head says Harris, my anxiety-ridden gut says Trump. Not long before we find out now.
Yeah, there's so much internet 'noise'... and it's only going to get louder in the next few days....
If you just try to objectivley look at the polls, it seems like a coin toss... I'd hazard Harris has the edge, but again there is so much internet noise it's almost impossible to call.
The general commentariat view is the polls are unreliable, but the problem is no-one knows which way.
Alex Andreiou suggesting that while a Trump presidency will be bad, it may also force us closer to Europe, as defence co-operation is something we can offer that the EU wants.
The general commentariat view is the polls are unreliable, but the problem is no-one knows which way.
They are reliable within their confidence intervals (that's the mathematical definition of reliability.) By definition, the confidence intervals are plus or minus, so it's impossible to know which way they will be off.
I’d hazard Harris has the edge, but again there is so much internet noise it’s almost impossible to call.
This my position too.
To be honest ive stopped mulling it over. The classic forum advice of not stressing about things you have no control over is being applied.
There's a kind of 'between Christmas and new year' vibe at the moment and it feels like we are just waiting for the result now, and then we can move on
Don't get me wrong, nothing will make me happier than seeing trump and the republican mire being defeated democratically.
My head says Harris, my anxiety-ridden gut says Trump. Not long before we find out now.
The anxiety is feeling worse - eased only by all the Trump supporters holding placards saying "Trump Will Fix It" at his rallies.
eased only by all the Trump supporters holding placards saying “Trump Will Fix It” at his rallies.
Now then, now then!
she’s all in for Harris, but says some of her friends not voting for her over Gaza, which is wild considering Trump
I think that part of the problem is that the Green Party presidential candidate is exceptionally good when it comes to Palestine.
If Palestine and the ongoing US-backed slaughter is a problem for you then it is going to be difficult not to vote for Jill Stein, as this clip shows :
https://twitter.com/PalBint/status/1852868017979359466/
And yeah Trump would be bad for Palestinians, but I can't see what he might do which the Biden/Harris administration isn't currently doing anyway. Unless someone can suggest something?
I’m rooting for Harris, but I also do think the Dems need to wake up & smell the coffee. Trump isn’t the answer, but the problems are real. On the Dem watch, globalisation and outsourcing has trashed industrial America, and they need some solutions or populists will win out.
globalisation and outsourcing has trashed industrial America, and they need some solutions or populists will win out
I think that part of the problem is that the Green Party presidential candidate is exceptionally good when it comes to Palestine.
Shame she’s a ****ing idiot and useful shill for Russian propaganda
I don't think that Jill Stein is, I believe that she has described Putin as a war criminal. But then I also believe that some people claim that the "EuroMaidan Revolution" wasn't a coup, so I can understand that might not be enough for them.
I don’t think that Jill Stein is, I believe that she has described Putin as a war criminal.
So you watched her interview with Mehdi Hasan where she deflected on the issue and upon receiving pushback afterwards had to issue a statement, And in 2015 she attended a Russia Today 10yr celebratory dinner at their invitation after appearing on the show numerous times, She sat on the same table as Putin, sat between Dimitry Peskov - Putin’s spokesperson and Willy Wimmer - Putins fav tame German politician, Sergey Ivanov - Putin’s chief of staff, Alexey Gromov - Dep chief of staff, and Putin’s fave film director and his wife.
Perhaps she’s not a Russian shill, but I then have to question her ability to figure out that she’s being used as a pawn in their games
extract from Kyiv independent newspaper
The comments came days after Stein gave a widely criticized interview with U.K. broadcaster Mehdi Hasan, in which she declined to answer a direct question about whether Putin is a war criminal.
"So, what we said about Putin was that his invasion of Ukraine is criminal. It's a criminal and murderous war," Stein said in response.
When Hasan pressed her, asking, "And he's a war criminal who should be on trial?" Stein said, "well, by implication, by implication."
Later on in the interview, Hasan again asked Stein the same question point blank — "Either you're a war criminal or you're not. Is Vladimir Putin a war criminal?"
Stein again waffled, saying, "In so many words, yes he is."
Some places reporting his confusion tonight, he was at a rally in North Carolina but started talking about a senate candidate who's running in Pennsylvania.
But that's not really that bad bit-the bad bit is that he was completely convinced that he'd met this candidate, David McCormick, right before the event. He's 500km away Donald, you are hallucinating.
-the bad bit is that he was completely convinced that he’d met this candidate, David McCormick, right before the event. He’s 500km away Donald, you are hallucinating.
Teams call maybe?
That could just as easily go into the Elon Musk thread but it's a pretty terrifying look at what happens if Trump wins and Musk worms his way into government.
I predict Musk runs as president at the next election.
I predict Musk runs as president at the next election.
He is not a natural born citizen.
If Trump loses Musk will spiral further down the conspiracy hole
Musk wants to be the new Murdoch on steroids, the power behind multiple thrones, he wants to dictate policy by his control of twitter, and it is looking like everyone is bowing the knee already.
If governments don't bring laws in to restrict social medias manipulation of reality, our lives are going to get worse rather rapidly IMO.
He is not a natural born citizen.
Ah well, ignore me!
Several polsters putting out last minute polls swinging back toward Harris, theres a belief that some have been overweighting in trumps favour
That said early vote data in Nevada is looking good for Trump by party registration, nearly 80% of votes are in there! and Trump is up by 4% a high turnout from rural voters seems to be helping him- Harris needs a big swing from Indies and/or crossover from republican (women)
Seeming a bit more positive atm, but who knows
He is not a natural born citizen.
4 years for the Orange one, with zero irony after the birther stuff of the past, to tweak the rules.
Hiya,
If Trump loses, can you imagine the aftermath? It's going to be horrendous and I can't imagine it will calm down.
It is knife edge by the looks of it, and truly horrendous, with no end in sight with the opinions so strong on it...
BR
JeZ
Listening to R4 as I drove to work this morning, Trump's language at the rallies in the last 36hrs has got pretty dark. He said at one rally that he now regrets leaving the White House and he should have refused to leave. Setting up for inevitable violence if it looks like he's lost later this week.
4 years for the Orange one, with zero irony after the birther stuff of the past, to tweak the rules
No chance
A recent episode of TRIP US mentioned the US will become a predominantly non white country by 2032
The right wing ultra bigots know their world is shrinking and they're going to cling on to their power for as long as possible, and they're definitely not going to open up a path to an immigrant becoming president
“So, what we said about Putin was that his invasion of Ukraine is criminal. It’s a criminal and murderous war,” Stein said in response.
It doesn't sound like a huge endorsement of Putin. I think the problem for many is that Jill Stein is highly critical of NATO expansion and Western geopolitics, much of which I personally agree with.
But that's not the issue here, the question that was being asked was how can people highly critical of the current Democrat's administration policy towards Palestine not vote for Harris when Trump is considered to be much worse.
I am simply pointing that Stein is Jewish and anti-israeli, plus Trump couldn't realistically do more to support Israel than Biden is currently doing, so it probably isn't quite as hard as some might imagine it should be.
Whether Stein should be supported or not is another different question but she is polling about 1-1.5% which I suspect might make her the third most popular candidate. Which if correct is quite an achievement for a "far-left" Green Party candidate in a national US election.
I would generally expect the third place candidate in a US presidential election to be some sort of "independent" with a personal fortune behind them.
He is not a natural born citizen
I always thought he was found under a rock
Several polsters putting out last minute polls swinging back toward Harris, theres a belief that some have been overweighting in trumps favour
I do wonder if this is like the blunt end of academic research, the goal being to get published and secure funding, not necessarily do it how you'd like. It'd be easy to massage your figures and say "X group is going to vote more than other polls predict", and then your polling company is in every headline. And then 24h later they all re-release their data with the same model to try and stay in the news cycle.
always thought he was found under a rock
An apartheid emerald from his Dad's mine to be precise.
Haven't been paying too much attention to the policy side of the US election as it's mostly a personality contest but Trump's criticism of the Fed raising interest rates and questioning of it's independence is interesting. I doubt it's genuine but it's about time politicians in the US, UK and Europe did something about the financial/banking status quo.
A recent episode of TRIP US mentioned the US will become a predominantly non white country by 2032
So turning the clock back about 150 years.....
I doubt it’s genuine but it’s about time politicians in the US, UK and Europe did something about the financial/banking status quo.
The reason the Fed (and the Bank of England since 1997) are independent is because politicians were otherwise tempted to (and frequently did) drop interest rates in an election year to inject a bit of 'feel good' into the economy for polling day, regardless of the damage this causes down the line.
Divorcing this process from electoral concerns was one of the best bits of Blair's legacy, and now so widely accepted as a good thing that it's barely a point of discussion here.
But Donny doesn't like anything he can't dominate or bully so of course he doesn't like an independent Fed. One less institution to 'challenge' him even if it does generate economic havoc down the line as interest rates start be set by how 'the boss' is feeling that morning.
I’d hazard Harris has the edge, but again there is so much internet noise it’s almost impossible to call.
Harris will get the most voters placing their vote for her. I honestly can't see any other result, national vote wise.
BUT
The chances of that meaning a clear win for her are negligible... either Trump will win enough delegates to win the presidency, or it will be so close that legal battles and/or possibly illegal battles will be ongoing for weeks, not months. It's not going to be "nice".
The chances of that meaning a clear win for her are negligible… either Trump will win enough delegates to win the presidency, or it will be so close that legal battles and/or possibly illegal battles will be ongoing for weeks, not months. It’s not going to be “nice”.
I remain optimistic that she could do well with women & indies breaking for her and Trump surge with black & hispanic voters being well overblown
Thats not to say there wont be legal battles
Infact I reckon he will declare victory as early as possible so that he can get the legal proceedings under way whatever the results are looking like
Agree on all of that. Still think that she'll get the most votes, but there this little to no chance of her being declared president-elect this week or next. It's a clear win in terms of delegates for Trump, or a messy battle (of various kinds, not just legal) ahead.
Divorcing this process from electoral concerns was one of the best bits of Blair’s legacy, and now so widely accepted as a good thing that it’s barely a point of discussion here.
Yeah it's so great it's enabled the banks to further enrich themselves off the back of mortgage holders and consumers under the guise of 'fighting' inflation. The hike in interest rates was a scam, a direct and substantial transfer of wealth from working people to the city. You can even argue that the rise in interest rates generated the inflation it was supposed to reduce. The fed, BoE and EU Central banks are not independent. They manipulate the markets in favour of the banking and financial sectors, and it's about time they were subject political (ie democratic) accountability. If Donald Trump is serious about challenging this (I doubt he is BTW), he would possibly win my vote if I had one.
Infact I reckon he will declare victory as early as possible so that he can get the legal proceedings under way whatever the results are looking like
This +1, I bet he's on stage very soon after the polls close to declare victory and discredit states where polling looks like he might lose.
He's already on stage and declaring victory.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852884394094293440
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852884394094293440
/a>
"TRUMP WILL FIX IT" Placards!
I wonder where he got the idea for those?????
Bob the Builder?
Just a quick reminder to those in the UK who sigh, shake their heads, and marvel/despair at Trump being pretty much 50/50 to be re-elected...
The UK voted for Brexit and for Boris Johnson. So, no matter what you make of Trump, the US, inbred yokels chewing grass, whatever.
The US and UK are not so very different.
Just a quick reminder to those in the UK who sigh, shake their heads, and marvel/despair at Trump being pretty much 50/50 to be re-elected…
The UK voted for Brexit and for Boris Johnson. So, no matter what you make of Trump, the US, inbred yokels chewing grass, whatever.
The US and UK are not so very different.
Yes and yes....but no!
As much as I dislike Johnson there is a world of difference between him and Trump. Seriously, could you imagine someone with a conviction for paying off a pornstar from campaign funds, a civil case of sexual assault, a guilty verdict for fraud against his business, his role in Jan 6th.....and hell....telling the population to inject themselves with bleach every being allowed by a UK political party to run, let alone getting 50% of the population to vote for him. ****, even Reform would have kicked him out of the party.
We have our own fair share of absolute melts...but I don't think we are at their level quite yet.
In fariness, Brexit and the UKs relationship to the EU is very hard to explain, especially to those who don't travel or really interact with Europe and see how beneficial it can be.
As for Boris - Boris was witty and charming and was coming off the back of a lifetime in politics which cave him some credibility (along with stokeing the Brexit (dumpster) fires) . Once everyone realised that he was in fact just a buffoon and not actually a clever person pretending to be one, they kicked him out.
Why Trump is unsuitable is NOT hard to explain - Harrison Ford recently did it in three sentences "
When dozens of former members of the Trump administration are sounding alarms saying, ‘for God’s sake, don’t do this again,’ you have to pay attention - they’re telling us something important. These aren’t soft people. They’re governors, generals, standing up against the leader of the party they spent their lives advocating for.
The reasons we're so incredulous is that America is doing it AGAIN! They've seen the results, they've heard the people, but they're actively sabotaging themselves. People who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it!
there is a world of difference between him and Trump
+ 1
you may not like Boris (I dont), and you make not like his policies, but trump is numerous times worse. He's a convicted felon who is a danger to world stability and the very foundations of us democracy.
Boris is a clown who was in it for himself but he is none of the above (although I acknowledge he did pay a fine for breaching covids regs..not aware of any other crimes he committed)
On a side note, I'm considering a sizable bet on the orange turd. My rational being If he wins I'll at least get some cash from it. I'd happily lose however much I'm prepared to bet for him not to win however...
The big difference is tribalism.
When there were some big scandals (Owen Patterson, closely followed by partygate) the electorate fairly comprehensively reacted with revulsion, even the Tory press couldn't wave it away. Johnson and the Tory's support cratered and never really recovered until the GE in July.
I feel that the fact we have multiple parties in the mix helps this. You can be small 'c' conservative and vote for the Tories, Reform or even the more laissez faire end of the Lib Dems. Same as if you're 'liberal', You have Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, you're not being pushed into one of 2 tribes quite as hard as you are if you want to get into politics in the states.
Trump could have been smoking crack on the roof of the whitehouse in lockdown and a Fox News and the wider R/W media ecosystem would have still defended him, in the UK we still just about live in the same reality to those we disagree with although the likes of GB news are actively trying to change that.
There’s also the matter of how they reacted when turfed out of office. Johnson (I refuse to call him ‘Boris’) just shrugged and moved swiftly on to his next grift. He’d ticked PM off on his big list of entitlements so he was done. Let’s go and make some money…
Trump on the other hand seems to have been a ball of barely-simmering rage and resentment about his defeat ever since. Other than to keep himself out of prison, the main motivation for his campaign seems to be the desire to take revenge on his real or perceived enemies
That in itself is pretty terrifying
But Donny doesn’t like anything he can’t dominate or bully so of course he doesn’t like an independent Fed.
The second series of The Coming Storm on BBC Sounds talks quite a bit about opposition to leaving the gold standard back in the 1920s(?) and links to conspiracy theories about the Fed.
Iirc there was an attempted coup from gold standard supporters in the 20s/30s
SpeederFull Member
“TRUMP WILL FIX IT” Placards!I wonder where he got the idea for those?????
Fellow sex offender jimmy savile ?
Here’s Nick and Mehdi having a gossip
Just when you thought stopping putting fluoride in the water was a retrograde step......
Let's just hope that we don't have another pandemic if Trump gets his way! (and buy up shares in bleach!)
As much as I dislike Johnson there is a world of difference between him and Trump. Seriously, could you imagine someone with a conviction for paying off a pornstar from campaign funds, a civil case of sexual assault, a guilty verdict for fraud against his business, his role in Jan 6th…..and hell….telling the population to inject themselves with bleach every being allowed by a UK political party to run, let alone getting 50% of the population to vote for him. ****, even Reform would have kicked him out of the party.
OK, but go back to 2016 and forget what happened since, if someone told you Boris had paid off a porn star would you have been surprised?
They deviate after they first gain power but until then there's some clear parallels.
Then there's the economics, Trump sort of did a Truss with his budgets, big tax and spending cuts, and it sort-of worked, the economy did OK, peoples taxes went down and there was the whole stimulus cheques thing. Imagine Boris, but you're taking home a few hundred quid extra a month, and the furlough scheme was in the form of cheques sent to everyone with Boris' signature on them.
That's why he's got almost 50% of the vote still. He's managing to chorale together both the Reform and the self-interest Tory votes (who in a 2 party system will always just hold their noses and vote that way whoever's on the ticket). Politically they've ignored the reform / MAGA type vote for a long time and Trump just discovered that he could win by speaking to them and largely ingoing the traditional establishment.
Look at UK politics today even. Imagine there was a presidential race, it's a 2 party system so Stammer, Rayner, Philips and Corbyn are fighting on one side in the primary. Farage, Anderson, Johnson and Badenoch on the other. You'd probably end up with a choice between Phillips (more left than the parliamentary party, but not too left) and Badenoch or maybe Farage. And I'm not sure who'd win in a members vote of a combined Tory/Reform party. At which point your left with......
Philips (Harris)
Vs
Farage or Badenoch, and the vote share of those parties isn't far off Trump despite the last ~8 years of ineptitude and downright objectionable views they collectively represent.
Saying "I cant understand how....." ignored the fact we're watching something very similar happen here in parallel, it's just well hidden by FPTP and a monarchy.
OK, but go back to 2016 and forget what happened since, if someone told you Boris had paid off a porn star would you have been surprised?
For me at least, you've missed the most important aspect in your question. It's about how it was paid and what that says about the person.
DT/BJ are free as they like to engage a porn star should they wish to, so long as it's legal and consenting - whatever, I'm not fussedboris (nor would I be surprised if BAdPJ had done so). But if you then try and cover that up and try to do so using money raised from donors who have no idea that you've done that with their money, then yes, that part really does matter as it's not just your personal life, it's someone else hard earned money that you're taking liberties with. If they do that with campaign funds, what else will they do it with.
What? I'm not saying BJ is better than DT. If anything, I'm saying they're similar, but the pornstar payoff thing isn't the problem, is it? It's the misappropriation of funds. So going back to 2016, as the poster asked us to imagine, would I care or be surprised (or even be bothered) that BJ had paid off a pornstar? No. But as with Trump, I would care if he'd made that payoff with something other than his own money as that says a lot about the person. I think others would agree. You certainly seem to.
Some odd similarities....
Maybe not pornstars - but BJ paid off his IT trainer, allegedly for BJs, with London Assembly monies [Edit - sorry missed that MSP got there first a couple of comments back]
BJ/Brexit and DJT funded by the rouble
Cosying up to Russians
letting billionaires fund their campaigns for favours
trying to subvert democracy (the proroguing thing)
garbage trucks and hi-vis/JCBs and hi-vis
I think the US is so divided is because there you can have a media set up where you don't have to have equal representation - I think Dick Cheney was the man who brought that change in (I hadn't realised that the film Vice was a documentary 😉 . And as for PACs, that seems like a mad idea
Over here we mostly have a little more balance where there has to be equal time for parties to ensure balance. Tho appreciate that balance has been skewed by the concept of equivalence on the BBC. And GB News are trying desperately to be totally partisan. And obvs the mail, express etc don't really do balance. But we still do enough balance perhas that we haven't comp;etely lost it
interesting last minute analysis here
I hope it's not just my rose-flushed ears, but seems they're saying there is some momentum for Harris....I so hope they're right .....
thanks for posting elshalimo
Harris will win. Trump and elon musks share prices will be sent tumbling. Trump bankrupt and in prison. Musk kicked out of Tesla.
Just a quick reminder to those in the UK who sigh, shake their heads, and marvel/despair at Trump being pretty much 50/50 to be re-elected…
The UK voted for Brexit and for Boris Johnson. So, no matter what you make of Trump, the US, inbred yokels chewing grass, whatever.
The US and UK are not so very different.
I'm no fan of Boris but he can speak in complete sentences. He actually makes sense when talking, isn't a convicted felon and didn't incite acts of violence when booted out of office. Finally his hair, although mad, doesn't have a patch on whatever the **** is happening with Donald.
I've also watched enough The Good Liars to know that America has a larger percentage of utterly batshit insane people than we have. So I therefore think there's still a huge gap between the US and the UK.
Trump bankrupt and in prison
If he wins he will be able to defer the bankruptcy (or get Musk to bail him out). And I reckon just not sure up for his sentencing on November 26th
If he loses.... It will be very interesting to see what happens
I really hope he loses, it's my birthday tomorrow and that would be a lovely gift
I really hope he loses, it’s my birthday tomorrow and that would be a lovely gift
I don't think we'll have a good picture until well into Wednesday, if even then... Some states don't declare for some days... It's going to be a long and noisy week!
I think we all know that Trump has run the best campaign ever run by anyone and will also have the most votes ever for a presidential candidate.
In his opinion anyway, if the actual facts line up with that we'll see.
I think we all know that Trump has run the best campaign ever run by anyone and will also have the most votes ever for a presidential candidate.
That'll be the message that Musk will be pumping out via his propaganda channel. It's very concerning how much he's influenced things in this election - algorithms to boost his posts, hide or delete critical accounts, disinformation campaigns against Harris, bot farms to post pro-Trump messages...
All it'll need to create another Jan 6th is a few posts saying that the election was stolen from them and there'll be riots.
Trump essentially got away with that last time. Dangerous times.
That is 100% the game plan, rural counties tend to be easier and quicker to count so they tend to declare first which means at some point early it's very likely that Trump will look like he's ahead in the swing states regardless of what the final result is.
This happened in 2020.
Trump's game plan is 100% going to be to declare victory at that point, have his message amplified by Musk and his media outriders and then call everything that comes afterwards as fraud.
Will America's democratic institutions hold? Guess we will know soon enough.
He should have advised her to set up a fake cyber security company so he could award her government grants, would that have been better?
Post of the week so far...
Worrying times
so they tend to declare first
You also have to remember the quite frankly batshit mental American process for 'declaring states'. There is no official standing up and saying what the official count is. There will be an official pronouncement from each state but not for weeks. It's just left to the news networks to race to 'call' each state before the other news networks. And if course, news networks are completely above political pressure and manipulation......
Their whole system is quite frankly barking.
Will America’s democratic institutions hold?
And what does the rest of the world do if they don't, and a Trump appointed Supreme Court gives him the presidency on some made up technicality?
First results are in.. Dixville Notch in NH voted and all 6 (yes Six) votes have been counted, the result is
3-3.
Let the law suits begin!
Dixville Notch
S****s
And what does the rest of the world do if they don’t, and a Trump appointed Supreme Court gives him the presidency on some made up technicality?
I imagine/hope that the UK will be talking to the EU sharpish about how to manage without NATO, and what to do about all the incoming tariffs.
EDIT: but I get the sense that the Trump campaign is very worried.
Come on yanks. Do the universe a favour and consign the crooked orange **** to history followed by the penitentiary.
‘Down like BHS’