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My money is on Kamala Harris to win and win easily.
That is my gut feeling as well, I even think they might flip a republican state or two. I think if Harris wins it will be a comfortable victory, but the worry that Trump could win is still a very real nightmare.
I have a confession...
I absolutely want Harris to win for obvious reasons.
There is also a deep, dark part of me that wants her to win putely as I have a morbid fascination with what will happen when millions of EXTREMELY angry MAGA types, many with guns, are told by Trump and what is now a well oiled machine behind him, that the election was stolen. Again.
Come on, you are all wondering too. 😉
I'm with you apart from the well oiled machine part. It mainly seems to be idiots judging from the mob that stormed the capital last time. The same type of 'survivalist type' who cried because they couldn't have their mullet trimmed in lockdown. I genuinely think Trump will win and that puts us another step closer to Idiocracy becoming a reality.
Question for those people who have put money the election result at the bookies...
How will the bookies determine who won? (As any failure to "win" by Trump will obviously be contested)
The difference this time of course is that trump is not in the white house, Biden is. Much as trump will squeal if he's defeated at the ballot box, it's difficult to see where any kind of Jan 6th repeat goes, other than to prison. The security services are going to all over it like a rash.
The uncomfortable part is if, and it's a big if, the election gets contested and makes it to the Supreme Court. Ill be honest, I have no idea if that is even possible in US law, but it does make you pause for a moment when you consider where that's been going and why. But it's a long road of state by state challenges, and frankly many days of head in hands despair at the utter bullshit of it all simply because trump is incapable of saying, yep, fair play. I concede. You got more votes.
He's a cheat, so I imagine he thinks the other side must be cheating too. Otherwise how else could he have lost?
If you listen to a few more of Rogan’s podcasts you’ll see that is his style, letting the interviewee talk. It brings out some entertaining insights into the guest,
Which is fine if you want to know more about the person he is ‘interviewing’, but becomes a problem when it’s being used as a political stage for a candidate to talk rubbish without being challenged.
I think it’ll go right down to the wire. Harris will win the popular vote, but Trump will take the college by 30+ points with the entire election decided by less than 200k votes.
Bickering aside.. It should be pretty obvious who's won at the end of election night.
There will be a lot of squealing from the Republicans though... So it might not be officially declared for some time after.
Bickering aside.. It should be pretty obvious who’s won at the end of election night.
If its close the counting could take days and the legal battles weeks-
win or lose Trump will declare victory almost straight away, I dont think it will do the country much good if the legal wranglings drag on, theres a lot of crazies with guns! A decisive victory either way would at least spare the country that.
THe difference to 2020 is that Republicans have been putting lots of work into screwing over the election mechanics. Lots of dodgy folk on election boards locally etc
There is some discussion on twitter that as the republicans currently hold the house, and if HArris wins, its likely the Dems win enough seats to take the house, the republicans will, for phony reasons, delay the confirmation votes for the house on Jan 3, so that it is still effectively republican on Jan 6th, and then the house will not confirm a Harris win. (This is suspected to be the secret between Trump and Mike Johnson that Trump talked about last week)
That's probably when PoopScoop watches the TV through his fingers or from behind the sofa ?
I should try and stay off twitter.......
funkmasterp
Full Member
I’m with you apart from the well oiled machine part. It mainly seems to be idiots judging from the mob that stormed the capital last time.
Sorry, I meant to say, the people behind Trump, rather than the gun toting plebs. The real power brokers. I'm sure ive read on here and online in general, that a whole mechanism has now been prepared to formally and "by other means" contest the election if he loses. By other means, I don't mean a conspiracy involving the military or anything, just a concerted effort to stir up real national unrest and violence. Trump would basically just be the front man, pushing the narrative, others would be doing the real work behind the scenes.
In '20 I don't really think even most of his supporters in the GOP etc were really prepared for him to totally deny the GE loss, they just went with it. Now I think it's basically GOP official strategy and they will be way better organised this time.
That’s probably when PoopScoop watches the TV through his fingers or from behind the sofa?
I'll be full on exoecting the zombie apocalypse at this point. Mind you, that's far less scary than President Trump 2: Time to go Ape Shit.
Unless he "turns" whilst still in office of course. I mean, could a doctor even tell the difference between normal (lol!) Trump and Zombie Trump?
Unless he “turns” whilst still in office of course. I mean, could a doctor even tell the difference between normal (lol!) Trump and Zombie Trump?
Is that what the orange facepaint is hiding?
I have some possible work travel coming up - was going to be Austin, TX next weekend, then maybe Phoenix AZ early Dec. The corporate America i interact with seems mostly to be assuming that everything will work out fine - but I'm not sure if I want to be in Arizona when they might be arguing about who won the state
Mrs fadda is visiting family in Texas for a week from tomorrow - how worried should I be...?
I'm going to be in Texas next week. I am not worried. It's already filled with craziness; little is going to change that.
Edit: I tell them I don't understand American politics.
How will the bookies determine who won? (As any failure to “win” by Trump will obviously be contested)
I think most have a "selected by electoral college as of this date" rule.
Although did see that one of the "blockchain" based ones had it based on the consensus of its users. Which could prove interesting.
Unless, by some bizarre miracle, TX flips blue. Then all hell is probably going to break loose!
fadda
Full Member
Mrs fadda is visiting family in Texas for a week from tomorrow – how worried should I be…?
Thought of having a henna tattoo on your forehead saying "Vote Harris"? Or "I Like Harris" which is slightly more acceptable over there but might get a few looks over here in the departure lounge I suppose.
I stayed in a couple of hostels in Houston. One of which I was pretty sure I was likely to get murdered in. By the owners. The house looked like one out of a horror movie and the owners and the interior were even worse.
Then I got a greyhound to New Orleans and felt like I'd get murdered. By pretty much everyone. Loved it there though.
Not sure I ever want to go back to the US again. A few illusions id held for decades were well and truly destroyed which still saddens me. I really did learn that just because Americans speak English is a very alien country. To my eyes anyway.
I'd be so happy if Cruz lost. He's a proper ****. Even the Texans don't seem to like him. Smarmy ****ing bastard.
sargey
Full Member
As I said a few pages back I am flying in to phoenix on Tuesday, if you want I could do a live feed from downtown Scottsdale!!
Only if you have a jacket with BBC NEWS printed on it. They really dont seen to like the Beeb, those crazy mad MAGA nutters!lol
Its the orange and white minstrel show - wtaf is going on with his face these days....
Can you imagine trying to wash his shirts. Good never get the costs clean. I genuinely reckon he must throw them away after one wear.
There's something deeply weird about his facepaint,
This was from a speech today
Trump says, to laughs from the crowd. “ … I could have had those waves smacking me in the face. That white, beautiful white skin that I have would be nice and tan. I got the whitest skin ’cause I never have time to go out in the sun. But I have that beautiful white, and you know what, it could have been beautiful, tan, beautiful.
butcher
Full MemberI’m half way through the JD Vance episode, which made perfect listening for Halloween. I was struggling to get through it purely for the fact it’s frightening these people are at the top of government. He comes across worse than Trump. Strongly held opinions and beliefs with seemingly little evidence.
Oh Vance is way worse than Trump but not for this reason, he doesn't have any strongly held opinions or beliefs, literally everything is either convenient or tactical. His position on Trump himself makes that pretty obvious but it goes through everything.
The saddest and most disturbing thing I think is his mum. She's a recovering drug addict whose addiction has been almost entirely to prescription drugs, starting out with vicodin which she was given for headaches despite being an alcoholic, she's an absolutely textbook prescription opioid addict along with 2 million other americans (and 1 in 6 of all US drug deaths). Vance is perfectly aware of all of that and for a while was a pretty strong campaigning voice on the real causes of the opioid crisis. Then, I don't think anyone knows exactly when, something shifted and his fake Our Ohio Renewal charity ended up paying a Purdue Pharmaceuticals exec whose speciality was <downplaying> prescription addiction, while of course he raised about $250000 in donations and used it as a political springboard while doing nothing toward's the charities aims.
But anyway, fast forward to today and he's repeatedly blamed immigrants for her addiction and literally had her at campaign events and used her to demand border controls.
Polymarket betting odds not looking good for anyone who was planning on putting their life savings on Harris and cleaning up.
Polymarket betting odds not looking good for anyone who was planning on putting their life savings on Harris and cleaning up.
That's a betting market, not a poll. American's can't bet on it so it just reflects how much money foreigners are willing to bet on each candidate winning.
Musk predicted just the other day that that Trump would hit 69.420 ?. On polymarket
The next day his odds started to fall back down
He also says they are better predictors than polls, so I'd like to see Harris lose just to price him wrong
I'm intrigued, I read somewhere he does his face and hair himself which explains a lot. Do you think he has bad eyesight? My mother always took great care over her make-up, once her eyes started going we had to have the "Barbara Cartland" conversation with her. Somebody needs to have it with Trumpy.
Real leadership material
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1718741011495547040?t=Jr6Jo1ou1O0XyoKDPKLthA&s=08
Janey Godley's sad death today has a certain comic resonance 'timed' to coincide with the last weekend of the US election campaign. One of her typically colourful career moments is trending massively.
Censored version chosen as not to offend too much all your delicate STW sensitivities - I'm sure the real thing is doing the rounds on mumsnet and it's all over half the mainstream newspapers.
Was gonna post Janey the other day after The Orange Shitgibbon had particularly offended my sensibilities, but then a combo of struggling to post links, and a realisation that I would otherwise do this every single day in the run up to election, meant I didn’t.
Still, she’s not wrong and I will think of her and her sign.
wtaf is going on with his face these days
I’m presuming there was an incident similar to when Ross gets a spray tan on Friends
Trump's hair has been brown most of his life it appears to have become blonde with age, which is unusual.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/photos/2015/09/an-illustrated-history-of-donald-trumps-hair
Good long read here about Trumps campaign being in flux, gives me a bit of hope that they've ballsed it up just enough
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/
But plenty of errors by the Dems own team to point at
One hope is that Musks America PAC that's spent millions on doorknocking in swing states won't be as effective as more motivated dems, whether that's enough though remains to be seen
Musks America PAC that’s spent millions on doorknocking in swing states won’t be as effective as more motivated dems,
Here's hoping...... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/19/trump-campaign-leaked-data-voters-elon-musk
Trump’s hair has been brown most of his life it appears to have become blonde with age, which is unusual.
Trump went through some serious shit between 1976 and 1985 judging from the photos in that link. It looks like he skipped a huge chunk of the aging process and went straight to old, flabby guy.
susepic
Full MemberHere’s hoping…. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/19/trump-campaign-leaked-data-voters-elon-musk/blockquote >
Wait, is it possible that Musk has made grand promises and that they'll not be fulfilled? Are these door-knockers getting to the doors via a self driving Roadster 2 or something?
Having spent almost 2 weeks in the US (Colorado now FL) the election stuff is pretty low key in some places and mad in others. FL is about as red a state as you can imagine. Not many adverts on the TV for the GE, it’s mostly local stuff. God knows what it’s like in a Swing state.
Although on no account do I talk politics in public and only in private with people whose political allegiances I already know. It gets very ugly very quickly here when ordinary people talk politics.
I think that Trump will will. Ultimately is comes down to America never voting in swing states for a black female. Kamala will win the popular vote for what it’s worth. Then who knows what Donald will do.
Polymarket is also primarily a crypto space and people
Its not even people but mainly one French person making massive bets. I believe thats also the market which relies on consensus of the members to decide who wins.
I cant see that being gamed at all.
The bit that always amazes me is his behaviour. I can see how folk vote for the policies etc, but his behaviour, it amazes me that folk look at that and think ' sure he can be our leader'.
I know all of that has been said before but it still amazes me
I know all of that has been said before but it still amazes me
It is rather baffling and not dissimilar to Johnson * a few. There are plenty of politicians I wouldnt vote for but can see why people would but in his case I would be voting for whoever might beat him vs abstaining and trying to figure out how to create a republican mk2 party. Although given that I think he is the symptom and not the cause not sure how.
I can see how folk vote for the policies etc, but his behaviour, it amazes me that folk look at that and think ‘ sure he can be our leader’.
A lot of those vox pops start "I wish he wouldn't say the things he does, but I'm voting for him because......"
Anyway early vote numbers still looking good for Trump and being talked up by his supporters, whether that's genuine or just setting it up for the " they stole our lead with their fraud" claims
I'm spending my Saturday evening watching his live rally in Virginia. It's genuinely baffling and terrifying. Closer to an evangelical preacher.
Nobody is at good at everything then as Donald J Trump
Harris appearing on Saturday night live..
Meanwhile she enjoys a shock 12 point swing in Iowa.. At +3 points over trump.
Meanwhile Trump healthcare stooge RFK Jr. Is pushing to ban fluoride in water supplies on day one..
Polymarket is also primarily a crypto space and people attracted to the amoral, scammy, ‘make a fast buck and scarper’ wild west of crypto tend to be pretty solidly pro-Trump, funnily enough.
Polymarket now showing Harris beating Trump, people who've been praising it as more accurate than the polls are now freaking out.... Lol
Meanwhile she enjoys a shock 12 point swing in Iowa.. At +3 points over trump.
The only conclusion we can draw from this is that we aren't really sure what's going on and we have no confidence in predicting a winner.
Yesterday I 'invested' £47 that I had resting in a William Hill account post Grand National, on Kamala to win at 7/4. I thought about putting it on the painted man child in an 'at least there's a small upside to all this' type of fashion, but realised I'd rather burn the money in a one man protest at the futility of it all - a la klf, albeit with a small difference in the value proposition - than profit off that w***er.
The odds on KH are now 11/10. Something seems to be happening.
Interestingly Nate Silver (ex 538 polls) has a take on how close all the state level polls are. Essentially it's pretty much statistically impossible for them all to be so close, so either the polling orgs are massaging their figures because of the kicking they've had in previous years (better to be slightly wrong on either side than go for it) or they're undercounting Harris because they don't have the models right for her demographic yet as she's so new as a candidate (of course they could be undercounting Trump again, but the feeling is that after two election cycles with him, that's less likely to be an issue this time round). Either way, that could mean Harris is stronger than previously thought.
Of course there's the third take on it, which is that the GOP are deliberately pushing through polls showing Trump as competitive to justify the inevitable 'stop the steal' when Trump loses..
Hard to be sure. I'm more confident than I was but still nervous as hell. Tuesday night is going to be a looooooong night
Polymarket now showing Harris beating Trump, people who’ve been praising it as more accurate than the polls are now freaking out…. Lol
Of course there’s the third take on it,
Or a 4th take.....up to a few days ago if a political party had any influence on polls or the Betty market odd you wanted to show your man (or woman - but I'm mainly thinking about this from the GoP side) as strong and successful. Now it's more important that your voters are not complacent and actually go out to vote. You need the to think waddling their fat arse to the polling station is important.
Polling companies are companies with product to sell, the last 2 presidential elections they have underestimated the Trump vote and got clobbered for it.
If they underestimate Trump for a 3rd time there is a real danger people will no longer want their product. No excuses this time.
If they underestimate Harris there are a gazillion excuses they can use as she is so new and her voter coalition so untested.
Therefore, the commercial imperative for most polling companies is not to underestimate Trump, which makes it fairly likely they're over compensating this time around as there's little cost for doing so.
Meanwhile Trump healthcare stooge RFK Jr. Is pushing to ban fluoride in water supplies on day one..
I am surprised that it has taken so long, it has been known since the 1950s that fluoridation is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous communist plot we have ever had to face.
A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice.
As human beings we all need pure water to replenish our precious bodily fluids.
the last 2 presidential elections they have underestimated the Trump vote and got clobbered for it.
They were both within the tolerance of the polls. The trouble is that media outlets don’t mention that there’s a massive (something like +/- 5% iirc) uncertainty
the last 2 presidential elections they have underestimated the Trump vote and got clobbered for it.
The problem is mainly that people don't understand how polling and confidence intervals work. Leaving aside the problem of estimating the turnout rates of different groups, the measurement error is much larger than people appreciate. With a sample size of 1,000, the 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3%. So, a poll that shows the two candidates in a dead heat at 50% each, just means that they are probably going to end up within about 6% in the election. In 2016, the polls correctly predicted that Clinton would carry the popular vote, but they were off in the swing states.
That sample size of 1,000 respondents is large and expensive to collect. If you have a 90% non-response rate, it means that you need to contact 10,000 people to gather 1,000 responses. On top of that, you need to try to figure out how the different sub-groups in the population will vote and how they will turn out. If you gather a sample of 1,000 respondents and 10% of them are black, you only have 100 black respondents, so the confidence interval for the black vote will be much larger than for the overall sample (I think it would be +/- 10% for a sample of 100, but I'm happy to be corrected). When you start trying to drill down deeply into the different sub-groups, the error just becomes ridiculously large, you might only have 15 respondents out of your 1,000 who represent some specific sub-group, and you can't draw any conclusions from 15 responses. And that's for a fairly large poll of 1,000 respondents. Many of the polls will have much smaller samples so the error is much larger.
So, saying that the polls were wrong makes it sound much simpler than it really is. In 2016, from what I remember, the polls were saying that Clinton had about a 70% chance of victory and Trump about 30%. It's completely unsurprising that a candidate with a 30% chance of victory would win, so the polls were correct in saying that Trump had a serious chance of victory.
The only conclusion we can draw from this is that we aren’t really sure what’s going on and we have no confidence in predicting a winner.
Lots of stories on Twitter about MAGA women flipping to Harris. I also remember Twitter during the 2019 UK election when it was widely rumored half the Tory ministers had lost their seats, hours before they tore down the red wall with an unprecedented landslide...
Far too many variables now makes it almost impossible to poll. I don't think anyone can predict it, but it feels like there's a glimmer of hope.
razorrazoo
Full Member
Harris appearing on Saturday night live
I found it mildly amusing in a middle of the road, dont scare the horses before the election type way. Lol
https://edition.cnn.com/?refresh=1
Hmm the usually accurate selzer poll has Harris leading by 3 in Iowa, which if true would mean most polls are overestimating Trump (with the n lead coming from women and indies)
Meanwhile the twitter Trumpers see themselves as the plucky resistance fighting the elites (when they're really just doing the bidding of Musk, Thiel & Murdoch [and putin?])
For them it's just about owning the libs and being on the winning side
But millions of American women shave lost abortion rights and putting a (adjudicated) rapist in the Whitehouse is a real red line, if there's a big upset and Trump loses by a lot, that will be where it comes from, but it will blindside his fans and they'll cry fraud! because the brocast demographic have no clue what the real life consequences of another Trump presidency means to women (and minorities)
Lots of stories on Twitter about MAGA women flipping to Harris.
Channel 4 news had a pretty in-depth feature last week with a group of women in one of the 'battleground' swing states that will decide this election. All were diehard Republicans who had voted that way all their lives. Very middle class and educated, all of them said, without exception, that there was no way they bring themselves to vote for Trump. They were all pro-choice and sited his sexism, racism and misogyny as steps too far
But there they then split about 50/50 with those who had been convinced by Harris and would vote Democrat. and those who would just stay home and not vote at all. I got the impression that if there were a Lib Dem style third party in the States, they would presently be hoovering up an awful lot of votes. The same as the Lib Dems did at the last election here with educated, affluent and socially liberal previous Tory voters repelled by the Reform-lite direction the party has taken.
Trump may be picking up the gun-toting redneck vote, but he's repelling traditional Republicans too. God only knows how it'll go on Tuesday. You'd have to be mad to put money on the outcome
Real panic amongst trumpers over that poll, they genuinely don't get it
So I made a meme for them
https://twitter.com/ChrisKimberley/status/1853059431409373242
she’s all in for Harris, but says some of her friends not voting for her over Gaza, which is wild considering Trump
This boils my head, Trump, the president who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, thereby rubber stamping Israel's claim to the city at their capital and oversaw the Pompeo doctrine which basically said that the US saw the Jewish settlements in the West Bank as legal, a huge policy change.
Kamala may not give them everything they want but that's because the American people overall tend to lean pretty pro-Israeli and if she needs to factor that in.
But as far as Trump is concerned Israel could bulldoze Gaza into the sea and he wouldn't bat an eye.
This is one of those cases where I wonder how much Russian and Chinese activity has moved things, a bit like all those disinfo ops in 2016 telling black people not to vote because 'it reinforces a racist system' basically using progressive pressure points to further the conservative Trump agenda.
But as far as Trump is concerned Israel could bulldoze Gaza into the sea and he wouldn’t bat an eye.
I doubt anyones under any illusions that if Trump wins, thats exactly what will happen.
An interesting piece, again on Channel 4 news the other night, saying that in a couple of these critical states there is a huge Polish American population who are all massively anti-Trump because they know he fawns over Putin, doesn't give a tosss about NATO and he'll abandon Ukraine leaving Poland next in Russia's sights