mattyfez- that really has made me laugh out loud. Of all the colours of hi-viz vest to choose from, he's been dressed in orange (guessing someone did this for him).
Well, that’s Buzz Aldrin off my Christmas card list. He’s just endorsed Trump.
In a game of join the dots and make something fit...
Buzz Aldrin > Mars > Elon > Trump
Have we seen the video of Trump trying to walk up to and get in the bin lorry?
I reckon he'll be spotted in a wheelchair within days of the election being over
https://twitter.com/sharonjqyang/status/1851767974610292749
In the longer vid of Trump his right hand seems to lock into the door handle and he has to wrench it away. Most odd.
For once his face has been out-oranged. Just.
cant control his arm you say?
MSP
Full Member
The renowned conspiracy theorist and anti vaxer JFK jr is going to be in charge of healthcare in a Trump government.**insert facepalm gif here**
Terrifying eh?
kimbers
Full Member
yes, I was trying to post that gifIn all seriousness, its looking like indicators of a stroke at somepoint?
You have to wonder don't you? I think that even given his huge arrogance the lawsuits etc must have taken a toll on him but even if they didn't, a stroke has no sentiment; It'll hit the good, bad and indifferent. 4 years from now I suspect he will be a very different guy and likely even easier for those around him to manipulate.
I did read something recently that claimed that the Trump campaign was paying for lots of misleading polling in order to create an impression of winning or at least a close race, so that they can claim the election as stolen again, it said that around 90% of the polling was from either the Trump campaign directly or Trump supporting benefactors and pacts.
MSP
Full Member
I did read something recently that claimed that the Trump campaign was paying for lots of misleading polling in order to create an impression of winning or at least a close race, so that they can claim the election as stolen again, it said that around 90% of the polling was from either the Trump campaign directly or Trump supporting benefactors and pacts.
Social media, particularly when it's not exploited by organisations and even governments to influence elections makes it such a mess, I honestly would know what to believe on issues like this anymore. Which is part of the point with Russian meddling in particular.
It democracies don't get a hold on SM it will ultimately be their undoing imo.
It democracies don’t get a hold on SM it will ultimately be their undoing imo.
I bet Tim Berners-Lee didn't realise his little invention would bring about the end of civilization.
Worth a watch. I hate Trump with a passion. An individual more unfit for high office I cannot think of including Johnson. I'm not sure how accurate it is but it is fascinating.
Who is coming up with his campaign 'stunts'? Well, we know they must hate him.
'Why don't you get into a garbage truck and then drive around aimlessly for a bit?'
Who is coming up with his campaign ‘stunts’? Well, we know they must hate him.
‘Why don’t you get into a garbage truck and then drive around aimlessly for a bit?’
I think its hard to get into the head of his fans, the Joe Rogan Brocast lot probably think this stuff is hilarious and shows how real he is?!?
also gets the discussion away from puerto rico trash island
the Joe Rogan Brocast lot
I'm still working my way through the Trump interview. I am pretty sure he said that water should flow into northern states from Canada as north to south is always downhill. He is also completely obsessed with wrestlers and UFC fighters. Not sure if it is a homoerotic thing but he keeps coming back to them, as well as talking about military generals a LOT. He really does like big strong men doesn't he?
But is that appealing to new voters? From what I can tell his whole campaign is preaching to the converted, given the numbers of public anti Trump republicans, I just don't see how he is attracting new voters.
That is why the polling distortion I mentioned above seems quite credible, it seams to me that he is gearing up to claim a stolen election again but go much much bigger this time.
I am getting more confident that Harris will win, but I really don't think that will be the end of it by any stretch. All the maga loons he has embedded in Government and the justice system last time around are still mainly there.
He is also completely obsessed with wrestlers and UFC fighters.
Cancelled my fight pass subscription because of their support for him. That'll learn 'em! 🙂
Well, that’s Buzz Aldrin off my Christmas card list. He’s just endorsed Trump.
Well that's going to mess with many Trumpist supporter's heads as more than a few of them would say that Buzz hasn't really been to the moon, so his endorsement isn't really worth anything...but at the same time; Buzz Aldrin famous astronaut endorses Trump!
Who is coming up with his campaign ‘stunts’? Well, we know they must hate him.
Apparently, from a few more right wing forums I occasionally browse, it is a masterclass in trolling and demonstrates what a political genius he is.
Lots being made of early vote data in states that allow it AND where party affiliation is recorded but it's all pretty meaningless except for Nevada, uniquely even in non-covid times they get 80% of their votes before election day (nationally is more like 50%)
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
So if you want to nerd out and try and read the tealeaves that's as good a blog as any
blog updates daily
The low down is that it's Republicans best ever year for early voting and even though dems are making up as it increases it's looking very good for the orange faced ****
There's a huge question mark about non-party affiliated,tho who quite often are younger voters, who tend to be less likely to turn out*
On top of that there's a real fear in Republican camps that women angered by rapey Trump & roe vs wade are turning out
If it really is close as the polls make out the legal battles and recounts mean it could be weeks before we actually know
*Hence Trump trying to enthuse the UFC fans listening to Rogan
of course if all those indies are breaking for Harris and a lot of Republican women are also doing so then a Harris victory would see the MAGAs howling about a fix because they thought they were going to win
Google “Red Mirage”.
It helps explain why REP think they’ve won and Trump declares he’s won way before the counting has officially concluded.
We’re the most winningest ever, biggly, Arnold Palmer blah blah blah
I have wondered how unrealistic the Election Night episode of Succession was and what a news outlet "calling" an election for a particular candidate would actually mean. Would the noise and uproar dominate the fact the actual count hadn't finished and force one candidate into conceding?
One thing is definitely true: the US democratic process is an absolute shambles
The renowned conspiracy theorist and anti vaxer JFK jr is going to be in charge of healthcare in a Trump government.
**insert facepalm gif here**
Seems like the secret to getting a job in any future Trump administration is to tell Trump you want a job and what the job is, even if it means inventing one - and bingo, you have the job. Worked for Elon and worked for JFK jr (He actually made the same approach /offer to the Harris campaign - withdraw from the race in return for a job in her administration - she didn't return his calls. Trump is JFK's second choice in a two horse race)
Franky the Heritage Foundation are doing that - carving up a future administration for themselves - knowing full well Trump doesn't have the first idea who to appoint, or any real interest either.
Wonder what job I could do?
mattyfez
Full Member
Early exit polls look… Good?
I'm really not so sure, of those 3 states only PA records voter party affiliation and even with Republicans voting earlier in bigger numbers than ever the Dems have a 25% advantage in returned ballot, only having a 17% lead implies indies are voting for Trump and/or dems are switching
Not sure I'd trust early exit polls that much, not sure how they capture the data and I'd guess Trump voters less likely to respond
Watching the Panorama programme now. Scary AF.
And he's actually talking about immigrants affecting bloodlines. You can't get much more Nazi than that.
Has anyone listened to the Joe Rogan interview?
I keep dipping in and out of it. The only thing I can compare it to is talking to my insane 75 year old mother in law, who rambles on about the most incoherent gibberish imaginable, unable to keep to a consistent theme or story.
Rogan asks Trump what it was like on the very first day he was president.
Trump's answer was to talk about the former Trump owned hotel he drove past on the way from the inauguration to the Whitehouse, then spend the rest of the question talking about the Lincoln Bedroom in the Whitehouse, with essential details on the length of the bed, the height of the chairs and some of the pictures on the wall.
It's akin to the response a child would give about their first day at school, or a senile old person talking about their first day in a nursing home.
Has anyone listened to the Joe Rogan interview?
I keep dipping in and out of it.
Notice how often Rogan has to insert a word for Trump so that it seems like his meaningless rambles are actually about something.
Asked for instance regrets/mistakes from his first a presidency. He talks round and round about meaninglessly 'bad people' and Rogan has to offer him the word 'Neo-con' and then Trump sprinkles that into then next few sentences so it sounds like he's actually making a point (and quietly hopes no-one asks him what a Neo con is)
Trump talks about the issue of his rambling - 'the weave' - and starts, obviously to ramble about, it and its going know where and Rogan has to say 'but you always bring it home' to give Trump the out - the prompt to say that theres always a point he brings the ramble back to (which in reality there never is)
Of course in 2020 Biden lobbed Trump the words 'Proud Boys' in the presidential debate in much the same way. It was like watching someone give a dog a worming tablet wrapped in ham.
I thought Trump came across well on the Joe Rogan podcast, sense of humour, something missing from any interviews I've seen with Harris or Walz.
The Joe Rogan interview with Musk is worth a listen too. My money is on Trump to win.
I prefer my rapist criminal friends to have a sense of humour too! Somehow makes it alright when they’re leering at my daughter.
Oh I see he’s had JD Vance on now!
its actually a slot he'd offered to Harris. She didn't turn it down but would only accept if he came to her to interview her rather than he go to him in Texas (on account of the whole travelling around the country campaigning in an election thing) so he cancelled it be didn't want to leave his studio to do it.
Trump, by comparison, did the interview at Rogan's studio in Texas even though he had a rally scheduled in Michigan (a mere 1200 miles away) at the same time and instead of cancelling or postponing it just left his supporters standing about in the cold for hours.
Still - gives Vance a chance to answer a range of questions of controversial Trump related topics by saying he didn't see anything and doesn't know anything about it.
on account of the whole travelling around the country campaigning in an election thing
She was in Texas though, that is where her no sing Beyonce rally was.
Trump seems super relaxed, his Rogan interview has been very well received, he was very funny talking about the Garbage truck photo op - very self deprecating, which I haven't seen before. My guess is his campaign are pretty confident and therefore I expect a Trump victory.
I see Putin Bot farmers are back
Still – gives Vance a chance to answer a range of questions of controversial Trump related topics by saying he didn’t see anything and doesn’t know anything about it.
On the trump one, when Rogan asked him if he'd lost, he (Rogan ) prefaced it by saying JD Vance had a brilliant response when he was asked as apparently he said "Can you prove that there weren't things that were done to influence the result?"
A slew of highly rated pollsters breaking for Trump today
Its certainly looking better for him
At this point I think dems only hope is that women break heavily fir Harris, but there's plenty of GOP/MAGA women out there
Putin & Musk will be immensely pleased
There's been a lot more "be wary of predictions" chat lately, the shifts in early voting are causing a lot of reaction but nobody's actually sure what they mean, and there's a good chance they mean nothing at all- republicans always have lower early voting and Trump amplified that and has now backpedalled on it, and while republican share has grown numbers overall have fallen, and seem to be reverting to more traditional early voters ie older, whiter. There's also a lot of stories about burning of mailboxes etc which are bound to drive some people away from mail-ins. So it's entirely possible that it's no more than a shift of voting method with no shift in voting intention, with a chunk of reversion to the mean built in, and none of the wider data collection seems to be at all conclusive on that. But few public pollster/talking heads want to be loudly saying "we don't know" right now, the nature of the beast in america is it's better to be strong and wrong than indecisive but smart. I'm pretty much just putting it under "who really knows", it's much like us in recent years, there's not as good a basis for polling as there once was, trumpism and the pandemic and increasing radicalisation and motivation have screwed with so many of the pillars.
In the absence of big swings, large undecided blocs, "quakes" and "october surprises" etc and a lot of other perennial headline favourites, it's also one of the few talking points that remains and also easy to understand and write headlines about, regardless of how flimsy it might prove to be. And of course it was made much more "interesting" with Trump's cult pretending it had fraud issues etc.
MSP
Full MemberBut is that appealing to new voters? From what I can tell his whole campaign is preaching to the converted, given the numbers of public anti Trump republicans, I just don’t see how he is attracting new voters.
There just aren't many real floating voters/undecideds left at this point and it's getting very hard to target them, because they're all either very disengaged from mainstream politics or total bloody idiots (and not just that, but bloody idiots who aren't as influenced by all the normal stuff targeting total bloody idiots).
But for sure after a few efforts at broadening his interest Trump is all-in on preaching to the crowd now and it's really hard to think it's not going to be damaging, that new york rally thing felt like either they've decided they can't lose and were doing a victory lap, or they've decided they're going to lose and are positioning for that. the puerto rico stuff just doesn't make any sense in a real ongoing campaign, it can't possibly win him votes at this point and there's no doubt at all it can lose them.
Unless there's something smarter and subtler behind the scenes and it turns out that in one of the swing states there's a democrat wedge that hates puerto ricans. But that seems pretty unlikely.
A slew of highly rated pollsters breaking for Trump today
Its certainly looking better for him
Not really. The polls are basically saying that it's too close to predict. The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it's difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout. That's an impossible task, so a lead of 1% or 2% in a poll just doesn't mean anything as a prediction. For example, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania and other swing states. It's possible that Trump's racist nonsense has antagonized them and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for Harris, but we just don't know. Harris might win in a landslide, even though the polls say it's a coin toss, or Trump might cruise to an easy win. We just don't know and a tiny swing in the polls just doesn't mean anything.
The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it’s difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout.
Yeah, but everyone on my social media feeds say they're voting Trump so it must be right!
For example, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania and other swing states. It’s possible that Trump’s racist nonsense has antagonized them and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for Harris, but we just don’t know.
I asked my American mate about this. His response was:
That's the problem. No one here speaks Spanish except people who we all assumed were Mexican. So we have no way of knowing any of this.
... he's a rare example of an American with an acute sense of irony.
Watched Panorama last night and it's terrifying! These people walk amongst us (them).
The American dream seems to have turned into an every man for himself nightmare.
My guess is his campaign are pretty confident and therefore I expect a Trump victory.
His campaign team spent the last 48hrs putting out the fires caused by the Puerto Rico **** up. I don't think they're confident at all.
I don’t think they’re confident at all.
This.
I was just reminded of that time trump took the piss out of that disabled guy. Why it did not end there is utterly sickening.
This
Watched Panorama last night and it’s terrifying!
I challenge anyone to watch this after watching BBC The Rise of the Nazis and not find it so.......small incremental steps and circumstances ending in horrific normalisation of attitudes and behaviours
Small incremental steps and circumstances ending in horrific normalisation of attitudes and behaviours
Classic salami slicing
The American dream seems to have turned into an every man for himself nightmare.
It's fueled by hatred primarily with a smattering of nationalism, other people (insert demographic according to your personal hatred profile) being why you haven't got a slice of the American dream.
on account of the whole travelling around the country campaigning in an election thing
She was in Texas though, that is where her no sing Beyonce rally was.
At the time of Rogan's interview with Trump, not at the time that he would have done an interview with her.
The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it’s difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout.
What's also a factor now is quite a lot of people have already voted - if polls show a shift in opinion what does that actually effect if its now to late for some of those voters you're trying to extrapolate for have actually already voted
Looking back at our own election and the drubbing the Tories got - one of the biggest blows to their campaign was Sunak's D-Day cockup. It was incredibly wounding for the party, popularity wise and the last straw for a lot of tory voters......but the damage it did was mitigated by the fact lot of them had already voted by post.
I like to think I've been paying attention to news, comments, podcasts and I'm fairly convinced that Harris will win. I was going to put £100 on it but not pulled the trigger yet (I'm not a regular gambler). Pretty good odds (at Paddy Power) considering its a 2 horse race which is obviously concerning in itself
What’s also a factor now is quite a lot of people have already voted
Its the surge in early republcan registered voters that are giving concern , Republicans have smartly been advising their voters to turn out early, what Trump is now focusing on with Rogan and the Garbage stunt is those low propensity voters who arent that politically engaged & dont usually bother (young men) but could turn out for him, they are also a group thats hard to poll, those early votes in Nevada still looking good for republicans,, gulp!
At the time of Rogan’s interview with Trump, not at the time that he would have done an interview with her.
This is what he said the other day
You could look at this and you can say, ‘Oh, you’re being a diva,’ but she had an opportunity to come here when she was in Texas, and I literally gave them an open invitation. I said anytime. I said if she’s done at 10, we'll come back here at 10. I go, I’ll do it at nine in the morning, I’ll do it at 10 p.m. I’ll do it at midnight if she’s up, if she wants to, you know, drink a Red Bull.
This is what he said the other day
In the same way that Trump isn't going to make an appearance on Call Her Daddy, Harris probably won't go on Rogan. They've reduced the election to primary school girls and boys eyeing each other suspiciously across the hall at a school disco.
remember there were going to be 3 debates, but Trump did so badly on the first one he pulled out
That seems very wise now
Not sure Harris would have done well up against someone as partisan as Rogan, but she surprised everyone in the 1st debate!
Maybe they could have sent Bernie for a Rogan interview, he is the one likely to have got a more favourable interview, and more likely to break through to the Rogan demographics consciousness, and from what I have seen Waltz might have done well also.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-us-election-lawsuits
The last couple of weeks i have been reading a few reports of biased polling trying to skew the narrative, this is the first time ive seen it in the Grauniard. It's just ghastly stuff
I was going to put £100 on it but not pulled the trigger yet (I’m not a regular gambler)
I put a cheeky twenty on kamala just before she was officially made a candidate... I'm still quietly hopeful.. I stand to get a 55 quid return... But I don't care about the win I just hope Trump loses!
Not sure Harris would have done well up against someone as partisan as Rogan
She held her own on Fox News and I don't think you get much more partisan than that.
Rogan interview would be a dangerous move for Harris. I could easily see a clash in personalities and Rogan picking her apart, and I think that's what worries them. It could also go very well but I'm not sure anyone knows until they sit down and talk.
I'm half way through the JD Vance episode, which made perfect listening for Halloween. I was struggling to get through it purely for the fact it's frightening these people are at the top of government. He comes across worse than Trump. Strongly held opinions and beliefs with seemingly little evidence. It's also interesting though, and dare I say it, somewhat refreshing, how relaxed they are about sitting down and talking openly about their beliefs, no matter how controversial. I can see how it might appeal to people, especially if you hold similar beliefs. The only reason I fear Harris would be picked apart is because she'd almost certainly go in guarded, and with a set script she'd be reluctant to deviate from, and Rogan wouldn't settle for that.
J.D.Vance on the Joe Rogan podcast got a good review in The Telegraph today - this is my third post and its politics again 🙂
I've not watched the Rogan stuff... I just think he's a bad actor and a bad person from some of the previous suff I've seen of him.
Him 'interviewing' trump and Vance I'm sure will just have been a 'circle jerk' as they might say in the US...
But I have absolutely no intention to find out... I already know all I need to know about Trump and Vance from the things they have already said on air, live.
And a cosy curated sit-down with a mysoginist like Rogan is not going to change that.
this is my third post and its politics again
Great news! You’re clearly enjoying it here with such intense levels of engagement but plenty more to talk about.
Kurtan
Full Member
J.D.Vance on the Joe Rogan podcast got a good review in The Telegraph today – this is my third post and its politics again ?
I've no problem with you paying to amuse us. 🙂
I wont be replying to you again after this though, if others wish to, that's up to them.lol
I thought Trump came across well on the Joe Rogan podcast, sense of humour, something missing from any interviews I’ve seen with Harris or Walz.
I have never listened to Rogan before. Trump comes across as being very laid back and talks at ease (I've got about halfway through). The issue is that Rogan gives him an easy ride, is conversational and just lets Trump talk. He is never challenging, rather just accepting of anything Trump states, he's just another sycophant offering a platform and validation (the gleeful giggle from Rogan when Trump states he is a fan of his it's particularly sickening).
If you listen to a few more of Rogan's podcasts you'll see that is his style, letting the interviewee talk. It brings out some entertaining insights into the guest, the one with Elon Musk is good and the one with Mike Tyson and his thoughts on Cus D'Amato.
If she does, I can hear his winey voice now, "nobody can believe she can get more than me, our ballots were amazing, our polling was amazing, they are nasty people, far left fascists who have stolen the USA again" then it all kicks off again.
Hopefully this time it'll be stopped quickly and more permanently as there is previous to support a stronger approach.
That is assuming he doesn't win...I'm going to be regretting posting that if he does and he does go all out on revenge! If he does win then he will be using a line about having previous to justify the madness he'll inflict.
DickBarton
Full Member
Hopefully this time it’ll be stopped quickly and more permanently as there is previous to support a stronger approach.That is assuming he doesn’t win…I’m going to be regretting posting that if he does and he does go all out on revenge!
My heart says Harris will win but my head says Trump will.
At the moment i think it seems pretty inevitable.
Some interesting stats that show the enthusiasm that this election has generated:
Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans. More than half of U.S. votes are likely to be cast before election day (and a pile of other stats in a Gallup article) https://news.gallup.com/poll/652853/half-votes-likely-cast-election-day.aspx
One interesting stat is that new voters turning out early include large numbers of Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona. Popular vote % have been closer in swing states than in other states, however, Penn is a swing state with 19 electoral college votes (ECV), the largest number amongst swing states, while Arizona has only 11 ECV.
Arizona is traditionally Rep, but Dems took it in 2020. Penn has always been close-run; Trump won it in 2016 and was elected, Biden took it in 2020 and was elected