The conspiracy theories pretty much write themselves on this one
So the shooter was too far away to get an accurate shot
He was about 120m away which is pretty damn close and well inside the effective range for a rifle. "not dying" is the bare minimum and generally they are expected to achieve "not bleeding".
It is a serious failing.
It all seemed to have worked fairly well yesterday and he didn’t die in the assassination attempt.
The only things that stopped the Donald's head turning into a cloud of pink mist was incredible luck. Absolutely nothing to do with the Secret Service. A breath of wind, the tiniest movement of his head etc. and things would have been very different.
The Secret Service failed. This wasn't some city centre with hundreds of roofs to check, it was a rural location with a handful. It was beyond negligent to have failed to check one of the most prominent in easy rifle range and with clear LOS to the podium.
Saying that is doing your job 'fairly well' is like saying Kwasi Kwarteng did fairly well at being chancellor of the exchequer
So the shooter was too far away to get an accurate shot, although had he managed to get to a closer position he would have likely succeeded, and he is very quickly shot dead by counter snipers which ends his assassination attempt, but his represents a security failure? I don’t understand why.
He was only 150m away, which is plenty close enough for an accurate shot. And he got multiple shots away. That he failed is pure good fortune for Trump and his security detail. There are some suggestions that his aiming was disrupted by a police officer climbing towards the roof and he ended up hurrying his shots.
Reports suggest that the shooter was spotted well in advance by members of the public, who tried to alert police and Secret Service, but even after security saw him, they did not immediately remove Trump from the stage.
In the immediate aftermath, Trump gets bundled to the deck but then, inexplicably, they allow him to stand up, retrieve his shoes, do his pose before guiding him away. Even if they knew the first shooter was dead, he might not be the only one.
So the shooter was too far away to get an accurate shot,
A recreational shooter with a hunting rifle can put a bullet inside a one inch circle at that range. You don't need to be a "trained Marksman" or a "Sniper"
I
According to the Washington Post, the outer perimeter security is handled by local police as routine policy, with the Secret Service working inside that perimeter. A member of the public saw the shooter on the roof and told a local cop, who tried to climb onto the roof but had to bail because the shooter pointed his gun at the cop (who needed to use both hands to pull himself up onto the roof so couldn't hold a gun.) The shooter then started firing at Trump, but I guess he was in a bit of a panic. As soon as he started shooting, the SS snipers spotted him and shot him.
If that counts as doing your job fairly well, I’d say Kwasi Kwarteng did fairly well at being chancellor.
Do you honestly believe that the security service should be able to guarantee that Donald Trump is not under any circumstances whatsoever assassinated?
And it wasn't simply "luck" that stopped a bullet killing him. Presumably if the shooter had been closer he would have stood a better chance. And if there hadn't been counter snipers, or they had taken longer to kill the shooter, then the assassination attempt might have been successful.
Trump is alive today because the security service stopped an attempted assassination attempt. If they hadn't he obviously wouldn't be alive now. You can argue that the security around him should be tighter but the idea that all assassination attempts against former presidents can be guaranteed to fail doesn't sound feasible to me.
Do you honestly believe that the security service should be able to guarantee that Donald Trump is not under any circumstances whatsoever assassinated?
No I do not and I did not say that! We are not talking about 'any circumstances' we are talking about these circumstances! The security detail failed to search one of only a handful of roofs in the area. The one in question was well within easy shooting range for a mediocre marksman and had a clear line of sight to the podium. That the shooter very narrowly failed is nothing more than luck.
You can argue that the security around him should be tighter but the idea that all assassination attempts against former presidents can be guaranteed to fail doesn’t sound feasible to me.
Once again, for clarity. I am not arguing that, I don't think anyone is. I am saying that in this particular instance they were incredibly negligent in not identifying one of the most obvious threats. I say this from a professional background of having being involved with preemptive counter terrorist searches of venues used by VIPs. Now my knowledge is admittedly very dated, but things haven't changed that much.
Ernie, to answer your first points:
The fact that a gunman managed to get into the venue and on a roof, 150m from Trump, is an absolute security failure.
Who is at fault depends on which department had responsibility for perimeter security and checking the roof's.
BUTR +1
Trump is alive today because the security service stopped an attempted assassination attempt.
They didn't stop the attempt, or even an attempted attempt
If they hadn’t he obviously wouldn’t be alive now. You can argue that the security around him should be tighter but the idea that all assassination attempts against former presidents can be guaranteed to fail doesn’t sound feasible to me.
It isn't feasible, but basic security wasn't in place on this occasion. You don't start protection at the core (Trump), you start at the perimeter. Builders of castles have understood this for centuries, with walls, drawbridges and finally the bit in the middle
I say this from a professional background of having being involved with preemptive counter terrorist searches of venues used by VIPs.
Well that's more experience than I have - I've never searched venues for terrorists!
I don't have any strong opinions on the issue. My observation is simply that an assassination attempt was made and it failed. Without security it would have obviously succeeded.
The only other observation that I would make is that presumably the United States security service are also very experienced at what they do, I struggle to believe multiple failures on their part, as seems to be the suggestion.
A video from history. President Reagan, after he'd recovered from an earlier assassination attempt
It's just won him the election, campaign photo of his dreams.
The whole point of this kind of security isn't just to take down a gunman after he gets a handful of shots off. At that point there's a good chance the person you're protecting is dead already. It's to visit the venue beforehand and spot the potential risks (eg a roof within 150m but outside the security cordon) and take steps to pre-emptively prevent that opportunity, for example by stationing someone on that roof or making sure no-one is trying to access it on the day.
I imagine trying to organise communications with local law enforcement is a nightmare, but you'd expect multiple reports of a bloke lying on that roof for minutes ahead of the attempt to filter through to those responsible for his safety on the stage so they could get him out of harm's way.
The only other observation that I would make is that presumably the United States security service are also very experienced at what they do, I struggle to believe multiple failures on their part, as seems to be the suggestion.
An "active shooter" got into the venue and shot at him.
Of course someone has ****ed up.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51ykzn0739o
Why on earth is the King writing to an unelected convicted foreign criminal?
And why are they announcing that the King has written to Trump but refusing to divulge what he said?
If it is not in the public's interest to know what the King said why is it in the public's interest to know that he said anything?
Ernie you have a point in a wider sense. It is of course impossible to prevent any and all attempts. In my own experience compromises sometimes have to be made based on time, resources, public disruption, last minute changes in schedule of the principal or their unwillingness to accept all security advice.
The US Secret Service are an experienced and professional organisation, I wouldn't suggest otherwise in a general sense. They have prevented other attempts and likely a great many more we will never know about and that they will never receive public credit for. But as professional as they generally are, on this occasion they dropped the ball. Not because of some statistically unlikely fluke they could not have reasonably foreseen and mitigated against, but a pretty basic and unforgivable mistake IMO.
Why on earth is the King writing to an unelected convicted foreign criminal?
It's a man he has met in an official capacity, who he may have to meet again after November. Diplomacy, same as the likes of Starmer, Lammy etc will have to attempt before he gets back in. Lammy might find it tricky, given that he called him a 'neo-nazi sociopath', but he's giving it a go.
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1812279017073934404
Not to sound all Walt about this but the psychology of the police in general and the security details in particular always interest me.
Someone up there suggested that a 'local bobby' type policeman was alerted and was trying to climb on the roof, the gunman saw/heard him and took aim so the bobby dropped back down. The gunman then was rushed in his shots, and the rest is as they say.
If the copper had done his job should he have got on the roof and if necessary get shot anyway; that would have alerted the security services and maybe cost his life and saved the (ex) President's and potentially various others.
And then once the shot was taken, the security detail pulling him to the ground and lying on top of him as a human shield.
Like I say the psychology. I know <Roy Keane mode> 'yeh, but it's their job' but are they all Trump supporters to do that job. Did it go through their minds at all that he's a nasty man and maybe, just maybe, this wouldn't be a disaster overall (albeit career limiting - although being shot can have the same effect). And the climbing copper - sticks head over roof, has gun pointed at him. Does he back away instinctively - as an American copper you'd assume he's been confronted by an armed suspect before even if not actually pointed at him - or think 'Not today and definitely not for that PoS'
Someone up there suggested that a ‘local bobby’ type policeman was alerted and was trying to climb on the roof, the gunman saw/heard him and took aim so the bobby dropped back down. The gunman then was rushed in his shots, and the rest is as they say.
If the copper had done his job should he have got on the roof and if necessary get shot anyway; that would have alerted the security services and maybe cost his life and saved the (ex) President’s and potentially various others.
Not everyone has the fortitude to make a split second sacrifice like that. Quite a few police aren't prepared to die to protect the public, or Trump. See also, Uvalde.
Plus, in Pennsylvania he might well be a Dem voter 🙂
Triumphantly punching the air, whilst there are people injured and dying.
Classy.
So the shooter was a white Republican registered American with a legally held firearm. Looking at the responses from the MAGA crowd on SM the answer to this appears to be tighter border controls, more guns and a blame the Dems.
Seems fine.
Triumphantly punching the air, whilst there are people injured and dying.
Classy.
only one person matters to trump
& his supporters love that
@nickc Facts don’t matter though.
I’m not as pessimistic about this as some others - sure, it makes it more likely he’ll win but equally a lot could happen between now and polling day, and if the undecided pay more attention to what he’s saying…
What, even the ones out of ear shot?
I see what you did there.
Triumphantly punching the air, whilst there are people injured and dying.
Classy.
I'm no Trump fan by any stretch but... Having a bullet very narrowly miss turning your head inside out, might mean your adrenaline fuelled responses aren't entirely thoughtful and considered!
Of course in his case you could argue nothing he ever says is thoughtful and considered and you'd be right. But most of us don't know how we would react in the seconds after a near death experience and probably wouldn't expect to be projecting our best image.
As I said, I'm interested in the psychology and decision making, not in whether they made the right choice per se, more how do they make that choice at that moment. Must be nigh on impossible.
Also instinct vs training vs time to make a decision.
Compare to the guy who attacked the London attacker with a Narwhal tusk, what 'decision' did he make that day?
The narwhal tusk is instinctive, no way was he thinking 'if a knife attacker appears, I'll use that tusk to confront him'
The SS is trained - if you hear shooting get him on the ground and lay on top of him. Even then at that moment is there a '**** that for a game of soldiers' moment.
The policeman. Has been told there's a gunman on the roof (maybe someone on the roof but I assume you'd be thinking gunman, not someone hoping for a better view). As you're climbing up you must be thinking about what you'll see and what you'll do in response. At that point neither instinct nor practised really, just him in an impossible situation. And one where "A gunman? On the roof? You want me to climb up and look? **** off" isn't really a choice.
only one person matters to trump
& his supporters love that
He was well enough for a round of golf yesterday, and apparently 'in good spirits'. Which I'm sure cheers up the family of the bloke who was shot dead at his rally.
Biden would be over to visit the families and the injured in hospital at the first available opportunity.
I can't stand the man but I do have to admire the presence of mind to get that photo op. If someone had just shot me (and he was hit, albeit "only" in the ear) I would be cowering away reassessing my life choices and wondering where to get a clean pair of trousers. I would not be capable to leading all those people in a chant of support
He’s a smart political operator when it really counts.
Triumphantly punching the air, whilst there are people injured and dying.
Triumphantly pumping the air as he survived and did not know about the victims?
I would be cowering away reassessing my life choices and wondering where to get a clean pair of trousers.
Donald never has to deal with one of those issues, so he has ample capacity for thinking about the photo.
Interesting discussion re the protocols of armed protection
and wondering where to get a clean pair of trousers.
I think The Don wears adult nappies, so one thing he doesn't have to worry about is shitting his trousers.
Interesting discussion re the protocols of armed protection
It was quite interesting but jeez, are they paid by the minute to get an hour's video out of 10 mins of content.
Summary.
Can't shoot until clear threat to life or serious bodily injury
Appeared to have the info about the shooter's location as both snipers had committed to firing positions in that direction
Possibly confusion - although reports of shooter may have been uncertain if it was another law enforcement officer (highly likely there should have been one on that roof)
May have been delay because targeting through telescopic sights at that range is difficult - tiny movement and you are sweeping past the target (likely the full scope picture at that range would be half a face which makes it hard to contextualise against landmarks). Possible open sight would have been a better option.
Must be an absolute ****ing nightmare working in security over there. Not just guns, but assault rifles everywhere! WTF do they do when visiting Texas where open carry is a thing?
WTF do they do when visiting Texas where open carry is a thing?
It's not just Texas.
Open carry is legal in more states than it's not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_carry_in_the_United_States
Madness.
and possibility that Gravy Seals will be going to future events armed to deal with their own security too. As is 'their right'
There was a YouTube video about 10 years back of a black guy who went to different towns and walked around with an assault rifle (which was legal). He was lucky he wasn't shot, American cops respond really fast when there's a black guy with a gun.
and possibility that Gravy Seals will be going to future events armed to deal with their own security too. As is ‘their right’
So set off a firecracker and all hell brakes lose with bullets flying in all directions as hyped up cosplayers with guns panic and shoot everything they can. I think I might have a better plan to assassinate Trump using the gravy seals as my method.
Good to see our Nigel, the hero of Clacton has headed straight off to offer Donny support. I presume in a fluffer capacity.
May have been delay because targeting through telescopic sights at that range is difficult – tiny movement and you are sweeping past the target (likely the full scope picture at that range would be half a face which makes it hard to contextualise against landmarks). Possible open sight would have been a better option.
[Geek mode // Secret service snipers will most likely use something like a .308 or possibly .338 Lapua rifle equipped with a variable 5-25x 56mm scope. The field of view on one of those is pretty impressive, and the variable magnification will mean target acquisition is nowhere near as difficult as you are suggesting.//Geek mode]
and possibility that Gravy Seals will be going to future events armed to deal with their own security too. As is ‘their right’
I'm expecting the sycophants crowded behind him during rallies to be composed of 3%ers and oath keepers from now on.
I'm just summarising what was in the linked video, I have no specialist or geeky knowledge.
Trump's security detail messed up to such a collosal degree I can't blame people for suspecting something strange was going on. The shooter themselves had a crowd for God's sake, for minutes before shots were fired.
The shooter themselves had a crowd for God’s sake, for minutes before shots were fired.
You can't just shoot someone for being on a roof.
Classified documents case dropped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5rpdrxevro
The Orange Shit Gibbon if having his best time ever.
You can’t just shoot someone for being on a roof.
You can if the person is clearly armed.
Dropped by a judge he appointed who does not have the experience to be a judge. Nothing to see here - move along
You can’t just shoot someone for being on a roof.
Sure, but, when it also seems that they have a gun, you can at least get the presidential candidate off the godamn stage (immediately)
You can if the person is clearly armed.
That video above doesn't show a weapon that I can see. Just being on a roof isn't cause to shoot someone. It would be cause for the SS to keep Trump off the stage though.
Just being on a roof isn’t cause to shoot someone.
I'm sure if the Security had shot him and he wasn't armed, then nothing would of happened.
US Police shoot a lot of people on a daily basis.
It'll be interesting to know what environment Trump generates amongst his staff....."if I'm disturbed while on stage by some half baked fake security issue you're fired" would be very much his style. And assuming the campaign funds must contribute to the financing of the security (like football clubs pay for the financing of policing for matches) it will be interesting to know how generous the notoriously mean Trump would be to that element of the road show expenditure.
gobuchulFree Member
Classified documents case dropped.
At this point, one has to question just how many souls he must've promised the dark lord to get this lucky!
I’m sure if the Security had shot him and he wasn’t armed, then nothing would of happened.
Seriously? If the SS shot an unarmed person at a political rally, it would be a massive scandal. FFS, with hindsight everything seems obvious and simple. In the moment, it's not. Just shooting anyone who looks suspicious is, I assume, not SS policy.
It’ll be interesting to know what environment Trump generates amongst his staff
It's a very good point this. The fact he was allowed to stand and do his "fight, fight, fight" thing suggests the security team are not in charge of security... he is. No close protection team would have allowed him to expose himself so quickly if they had full control.
assuming the campaign funds must contribute to the financing of the security
The USA have a weird system of treating former Presidents as Presidents, and funding their security (amounts undisclosed).
It's often been observed that STW members comprise a huge range of experience and specialisms but I didn't know that extended to professional marksmen and close/personal security experts.
Impressed...
It’ll be interesting to know what environment Trump generates amongst his staff
Well you only need to look at his behaviour on Jan 6 - demanding the security scanners be switched off because people coming to the rally with guns weren'tt going to be shooting at him. Or been restrained by the SS from trying to grab the steering wheel of a car whilst demanding to be taken to the Capitol whilst shouting 'I'm the ****ing president'
If the copper had done his job should he have got on the roof and if necessary get shot anyway; that would have alerted the security services and maybe cost his life and saved the (ex) President’s and potentially various others.
From a prevention of crime perspective, better to stay alive and still be in a position to do something about the probem than get shot and hope that someone follows up in some point in the future. Also, from a personal perspective, most people prefer not to be shot.
Impressed…
I'm not a marksman or a personal security expert, but common sense would suggest if one guy managed to get onto a nearby roof with an AR-15, there might well be accomplices who were better hidden, at different vantage points.
It's not like these kinds of guns are hard to buy in the US: https://www.guns.com/firearms/rifles/semi-auto
It’s often been observed that STW members comprise a huge range of experience and specialisms but I didn’t know that extended to professional marksmen and close/personal security experts.
Impressed…
I was going to chip in with my extensive expertise as a kid shooting cans my Diana .177 and Wembley Tempest .22 pistols but thought I’d let others contribute
I was going to chip in with my extensive expertise as a kid shooting cans my Diana .177 and Wembley Tempest .22 pistols but thought I’d let others contribute
I have a .22 air rifle, it even has a telescopic sight. Can I join in?
...This thread is an amazing mix of interesting/informed opinion and utter codswallop. I'm not joining in, only have codswallop to offer 😉
Oh FFS, the documents case was a slam dunk and they knew it, Judge Cannon is a disgrace to her profession.
If the copper had done his job should he have got on the roof and if necessary get shot anyway; that would have alerted the security services and maybe cost his life and saved the (ex) President’s and potentially various others.
probably within the remit of the Secret Service, but not the action I'd expect from a small town cop.
You can if the person is clearly armed.
As per the linked / summarised video (and it's their speculation, not mine) - man with rifle on roof, are you SURE that's not another local branch law enforcement. After all, you'd expect those roofs to be secured, and as it was second circle the SS snipers may not have known for sure and been checking facts.
Secret service snipers will most likely use something like a .308 or possibly .338 Lapua rifle
I have to admit I was curious, because the SS sniper rifles didn't look anything I'd ever seen before, from what I read they are .300 Win Mag apparently.
I've has some experience with the SA80A2 with the Susat sights and would say that in single fire it's got an effective range out to beyond 400m in single fire mode in good conditions. I'd imagine the AR15 is quite similar, but haven't tried it. The L129 was a lot of fun. With good instructors eve I could hit things out beyond 800m.
Donald Trump’s criminal case on charges that he illegally retained classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago club was dismissed on Monday after the presiding judge sided with the former president and ruled that the special counsel who brought the prosecution had been improperly appointed.
The stunning decision by Aileen Cannon, the US district judge who was a Trump appointee, found that the appointment of Jack Smith as special counsel violated the US constitution as he had not been named to his post by the president or confirmed by the Senate.
So a Trump appointed judge has ruled against the case as Trump had not appointed the special counsel who brought the prosecution??!!
Just shooting anyone who looks suspicious is, I assume, not SS policy.
If it was every Trump Rally would be a Massacre...
So a Trump appointed judge has ruled against the case as Trump had not appointed the special counsel who brought the prosecution??!!
I think even his pet judge accepts Biden is currently the president.
It is them throwing away years of precedence after sitting on the case for ages. Handy timing as well to try and hide it.
On the sending a copper onto the roof - don't mean to say they did / didn't do their job, I'm just interested in the psychology of thought processes under duress. Same in sport, why do people make the decisions they do, had they already planned what they'd do if x, y, z occurs, or just act on instinct in the occasion. What made the firefighter that lost his life protecting his family do what he did? Would he have planned it - 'if this ever happens this is what I'd do....' ? My wife I asked me last night if I'd do the same for her and I truthfully answered that I'd never really thought about it (but of course dear, without a moments hesitation)
I hope I'm never in that position. I can say now that of course I would....but in the moment would I really? Or would I shit myself and hide?
"It is them throwing away years of precedence"
or, alternatively, it is them finally sticking to the constitution....
Judge Cannon is a disgrace to her profession.
And therefore the perfect appointees. One the 20 Jam expect Clarence Thomas to resign and Cannon to take his place. An stay put there for the next 50 years or so.
I think even his pet judge accepts Biden is currently the president.
Fair enough (I'd managed to convince myself Trump is still the president!).
Cannon has finally made a decision that can be appealed to the 11th circuit by Jack Smith. It’s a ridiculous decision that will almost certainly be overturned, and hopefully the judge removed from the case.
I think Judge Cannon has used up all her lives with this ruling. Not even trying to disguise the corruption now. Mission accomplished in terms of delaying it beyond the election though.
I suppose her ultimate aim is to secure a SC slot because of her loyalty at some point in the next decade, even if Trump is not elected in November.
I think a lot of you are overestimating how exciting the life of a typical american police officer is. a few stats..
There are over 18,000 police forces, each with their own rules, training programs and procedures in the USA
Only 27% of officers ever fire their weapons (outside of a range) at any point in their career.
A significant proportion of officers don't ever even draw their weapons.
qualifications are being 18, having a driving licence and a GED (which I think is a bit like a couple of 'C's at GCSE)
you don't even need to have a clean criminal record - you can't have a felony but most misdemeanours are fine.
the local officer in question had probably been told "there's someone on that roof" and went over to have a look. He would not have gone expecting to find someone aiming a gun at him (or he's unlikely to have gone solo), and he would not have thought to quickly jump down, draw, de-safety and fire his weapon several times (which would have likely taken longer than the assassin anyway) in order to alert the secret service.
Just read over on the BBC that they are trying to work out a motive for the assassination attempt. I think I can take a wild stab at that.....because Trump is a fascist?