Forum menu
This is the problem with politics. Nobody is focussed on Trump lying repeatedly, rather Biden’s apparent frailty.
There's no need to qualify that with "apparent". 'Blatant' would be a more apt qualifier.
However, I trust that Biden has surrounded himself with pretty competent advisers to, erm, compensate for his…issues.
Trump though, we know who he will surround himself with… and it’s fair to say they wont be around him for their competence but instead for their total unquestioning loyalty. The ultimate Yes Men environment. Dangerous.
Pretty much, the trouble is it paralyses government because no one want's to get behind Biden. If you're a moderate republican there's zero political capital to be gained in lending any cross-party support to a figurehead incapable of inspiring your electorate.
The lack of any decent moderate republicans is IMO a reflection on Biden.
I definitely feel "we're all doomed" after watching last night's performance.
Watching Biden at the stand and watching him move I can't help think there is something worse going on than simply old age. The only people I have met who move and communicate like that have a degenerative ailment of one sort or another.
There's only 3 years between them.
Trump and Biden were asked about their ages. They argued about golf
I find it weird and astonishing how poor the candidates the Democrats put up are. Hilary Clinton was a poor candidate and Biden this time round is for sure. Why?
It's the inevitable result of the entire political machine being in the pockets of big business. The republicans have never made any secret of who they represent, but the democrats have made the fatal mistake of thinking they also need to represent the corporate establishment in order to win power. The result is a hollowed out party which represents no one but their own narrow self-interest. The UK is headed the same way, we're just some way behind as the traditional "left wing" party here still has enough people in it who will resist a complete takeover by corporate interests. Those who support Starmer's purge of leftwingers and progressives should take note.
I know you have to have a certain amount of money and more support you in British politics to rise to the "top".
But you have to be insanely minted AND connected in the US.
Interesting discussion on all this on Bluesky - looks very much like there's no mechanism for Biden stepping down, and even if he can/does, the choice is Harris or Harris.
Interesting discussion on all this on Bluesky – looks very much like there’s no mechanism for Biden stepping down, and even if he can/does, the choice is Harris or Harris.
Huh, how does that work? He can step down as a candidate without stepping down as president.
If he steps down as a candidate then it means a contested convention in which case it's anyone's game.
I was going to comment last night as I stayed up to watch the debate but I saw enough within 20 mins to realise we'll see a trump presidency along with his cronies in high office.
`So much for democracy in the land of the free (and stupid)
Ah look on the bright side if Trump gets in we’ve (the world) just got to suffer him for 4 years then that’s it, no more Trump running things.
Biden looks worse than my (demented 93-year-old) father in law did last time I saw him, and he died a couple of weeks later.
The thing now is that Biden could be seen as an amazing president if he actually gets out of the way for someone more capable.
Sad reality is that I don't think he has the ability to accept or see that
By the same measure though – it’s hard to make clips of Trump when he isn’t incoherent.
Unfortunately there are a lot of people out there who believe Trump is quick, witty, and charismatic. Even some of his haters admit to this. Whereas to many, Biden's outward image is of a man in cognitive decline, and this has been the narrative since long before it was as bad as it is now...
He just cemented that image.
It reinforces existing biases. Whether it is right or wrong is beside the point. I think we all know by now that elections aren't won on what is right or wrong. They're won on manipulating people's biases.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/19/trump-nra-convention-dallas
Be interesting to see if he tries changing the constitution when he (almost inevitably) gets in again. Putin egging him on, no doubt.
Ah look on the bright side if Trump gets in we’ve (the world) just got to suffer him for 4 years then that’s it, no more Trump running things
Beaten to it, but constitutions can be amended and his friends have form to offer advice.
I really can't grasp why the democrats keep fielding candidates that are next-to unelectable (OK, Biden by the skin of his teeth last time): Hilary and then Joe - it's like they're trying to give Trump a fair chance. They need to get Biden out, pronto (though what RbiT) suggests above is a bit concerning
Ah look on the bright side if Trump gets in we’ve (the world) just got to suffer him for 4 years then that’s it, no more Trump running things.
After the contempt he's shown for democracy, the constitution and the law by trying to overturn election results, support insurrection etc. I wouldn't be at at all surprised if he apes his crush in the Kremlin and declares himself prez for life 😪
Well at least thanks to Alex Garland we know how it ends.
Nobody wants to have the "Dad, maybe it's time to give up your driving licence" conversation
The trouble with debating Trump, is, he’s undebatable.
Don't know about that, I've heard people describe him as a master debater.
prez for life
Given his age and the rumours about his health that might not be all that long.
They need to get Biden out, pronto
It’s not just last nights debate. Just watching the footage on the news of his campaign rally today, he looks like he’s just wandered out of the Autumn Meadows rest home for the terminally bewildered.
It’s unfathomable that a serious political party could be putting him forward as their candidate for the next 4 years of running a global superpower
They're just gift-wrapping this for Trump
The democrats have shown an absolute lack of leadership over the last decade, first Clinton, then Biden, yes Biden is a nice guy, but he was too old the first time, now he's showing it even more, you can get away with it as VP, but not as the President. Trump is just a chancer as always, but the reality is the US demographics are in his favour just now, like last time he won, and if he does succeed, he'll be over 80 when he's in office as well, i tend to think that there should be a cut off age for politics in the UK, i'm all for working beyond 67, but not in a 24/7 environment where split second judgement is required a lot of the time!
The sad bit for me is that Trump winning might be a good thing for the UK, he'll be offending the EU and others again, and that only makes the UK more enticing to the EU for strength, with a labour government, who knows.
It’s interesting chatting to work colleague in CA about the debate - thinks it was engineered by democrats who want to swap out Boden as the debate was much earlier than they normally are and at the behest of the democrats- so they can convince Biden to retire and have another candidate just in time for convention.
K unfortunately has not done enough to be convincing candidate .
A theory I heard was that an early debate would give Biden a chance to turn the polls around (he's been behind for months) and something give him something to build on going towards the election date.
As a Plan B, it would give them time to hit the emergency button and find a candidate to be confirmed at the convention.
Time to break the ****ing glass, I reckon.
Some of it's unfair, of course- Biden's always been soft and slow spoken, a little bit of a mumbler, and a think-firster (which I think is a lot about the speech impediment). In debates in general, being quick and loud and clear and wrong is better than being slow and quiet and nuanced and right, and much more so in this climate. And as ever there's a big element that Trump exceeded expectations just by not shitting his pants.
But that doesn't change anything, that was a terrible night for, uh, absolutely everyone. Remains to be seen what it really means, as ever it'll confirm lots of beliefs and that's not necessarily important.
ratherbeintobago
Full MemberGuardian reporting that there are calls for him to stand aside. Problem is ‘for who?’
Exactly this. TBF I don't think Biden would be standing at all, if there was anything like an heir apparent for him to hand it to. There's candidates that are popular with democrats but don't seem to cut through at all even with swing voters. Literally every conversation about Biden standing down ends with "but for who" and then everyone goes, um. Part of the job of a party is to promote excellence and always have a pool of potential. It's not just who would replace Biden now, even if he wins who will replace him next time, there ought to already be a line forming and it doesn't feel like there is.
I think Harris was supposed to be the heir- that's a good way to do it, VP to President, continuity and experience. But whether that was a good idea or not it's not worked out that way at all and it feels like that was decided long ago.
But literally every conversation about Biden standing down ends with “but for who” and then everyone goes, um.
I think you'll find a lot of people have been thinking about this for months (or years) and I would be very surprised if several candidates aren't already set up to run in a shortened Primary.
The problem is not who is going to replace Biden because literally anyone is going to do better than Biden at this point. The problem is persuading Biden to step aside.
Fair play to him for backing himself, but if he doesn't step aside now he well go down in history as the man who gifted Trump a second term.
I think Harris was supposed to be the heir- that’s a good way to do it, VP to President, continuity and experience. But whether that was a good idea or not it’s not worked out that way at all and it feels like that was decided long ago.
Draft Michelle Obama into service as Bidens nurse then slide her into the presidential race. (Not serious btw)
Wouldn’t work though there is vast swathes of the population who wouldn’t vote for a woman president, never mind a black woman president - this also rules out Harris as president.
Saw the transport secretary interviewed not long ago - youngish guy and very articulate, including some stuff well outside of transportation
Presumably he's not filthy rich and, err, he's called Pete Buttigieg so perhaps needs to be standing against someone who's not a toddler
BruceWee
Full MemberI think you’ll find a lot of people have been thinking about this for months (or years) and I would be very surprised if several candidates aren’t already set up to run in a shortened Primary.
Oh sure, but that's not even half the job. They need to be people who are already names, who have pulling power and good voter recognition, even in the normal run of affairs.
Bernie would destroy Trump, but the democrats central office would rather see a second Trump term than an actual progressive president.
Oh sure, but that’s not even half the job. They need to be people who are already names, who have pulling power and good voter recognition, even in the normal run of affairs.
That's why I reckon if it's going to be anyone it's going to be Gavin Newsom.
Bernie would destroy Trump, but the democrats central office would rather see a second Trump term than an actual progressive president.
He's even older than Biden!
Yeah, but he is much sharper than both of them, and he would at least offer voters some hope, instead of Bidens no hope and Trump's false hope.
He’s even older than Biden!
But a lot more lucid & would run rings around Trump
Anyway they need someone younger and they need them asap
Trump is not much more cogent than Biden but far more dangerous
But a lot more lucid & would run rings around Trump
Would he though, he is great at being on the peripheral and throwing grenades at the other two, but you stick him into a full on campaign where he's a primary and age will catch up with him soon, he'll also not be able to promise what he does as a no hoper campaigner.
The Democrats are stuck with Biden, sounds like he's doubling down as well, reality is you'd have to replace Kamala as well, so both having to be talked into stepping down and two people having to get up to speed and gain popularity in next to no time!
The Democrats are stuck with Biden, sounds like he’s doubling down as well, reality is you’d have to replace Kamala as well, so both having to be talked into stepping down and two people having to get up to speed and gain popularity in next to no time!
None of that matters.
Biden is finished. It's done. There is no coming back from this.
I hate Anthony Scaramucci but this is worth a watch.
Would he though, he is great at being on the peripheral and throwing grenades at the other two, but you stick him into a full on campaign where he’s a primary and age will catch up with him soon,
vs Biden or Trump? Both of whom are showing serious signs of decline ,with Trump only appearing better since he started earlier, I cant say I would rule him out.
I would have doubts about him managing to complete a term in office (same as I had with Biden although he seems to have just scraped through) since it seems to be the equivalent of cat/dog years with the leader living seven years compared to any of us mere humans.
If you look at election photos of Obama or Blair and then them immediately after leaving office and then now you have this weird jump and then freeze in years.
Trump does seem somewhat immune from that but I think that is in part due to the fact he started far more along the line and mostly due to its only aging if you take the job seriously.
TBH I have missed the way he says China.
Biden's done. But he's still doubling down and insisting he's standing.
Project 2025 incoming.
Hope it comes true that Newsom replaces Biden, if you can withered hand of the nomination. Someone has to stop Trump.
Newsom is the Governor of California. Here is a quote from a recent Spectator article to give a flavour of how Trump might attack him:
"California is, in many places, an apocalyptic horror show. Addicts lurch the streets in LA injecting animal tranquilliser into their open sores. Politicians brag in public about defunding the police while frantically funding their own private security. Californians are leaving in a steady stream. Around 700,000 more people left than arrived in the two years to summer 2022. Way to go, Newsom. It’s astonishing that anyone who’s presided over this mess could be a feasible candidate for president, yet here we are."
I keep hearing this "anyone but Biden would beat Trump" but I fear it's just wishful thinking. When Clinton lost it was because she was an awful candidate any anybody else would have beaten Trump. Now it looks as though Biden is heading for defeat people are saying that anybody but him would win. But I doubt it. Sanders is old and a socialist. Does anyone really think mainstream America will vote for that. No, anyone but Bernie would win. Pete Buttigieg is gay. Ditto; anyone but Pete. And so it goes on.
The left (on both sides of the Atlantic) basically thinks their opponent is terrible, corrupt, evil etc. So they think that any decent person should be able to beat them easily. They can't understand why anyone would vote for them and that's why they can't beat them.
Yes, Biden has some major weaknesses that were cruelly exposed in the recent debate, but don't kid yourself that somebody new is suddenly going to walk all over Trump.
That Spectator article.
The left (on both sides of the Atlantic) basically thinks their opponent is terrible, corrupt, evil etc. So they think that any decent person should be able to beat them easily. They can’t understand why anyone would vote for them and that’s why they can’t beat them.
Bearing in mind that the Spectator no doubt think Labour is practically communist you have to raise an eyebrow at the comment about the left not being able to beat a, "terrible, corrupt, evil opponent." Lol
Bearing in mind that the Spectator no doubt think Labour is practically communist you have to raise an eyebrow at the comment about the left not being able to beat a, “terrible, corrupt, evil opponent.” Lol
But they are not even trying to beat them. They are just hoping they beat themselves. I take your point and it’s a fair one but I fear that if the tories had a charismatic leader they would probably still win.
Citation needed.
Start at around page 380 or so on this thread and work your way back to here.
Why are we surprised Biden was a disaster in the debate. Earlier thisyear a prosecutor declined to charge him with with holding classified documents partly because he was an elderly man with a poor memory. Not fit enough to go to court but OK to be leader of the USA for the next 4 years?
"
Surely someone like Obama sits down with Biden and spells it out for him. A credible excuse can be magicked up for him standing down. If he persists, it's a shoe in for Trump. An alternative candidate has to have a better chance
As an American you must be feeling today how a lot of felt in the UK in December 2019… are you ****ing serious? I have to choose between one of these pair of clowns?
It's an advert for euthanasia.
I think we'll see Trump win the white house. And the Dems take a Senate and house majority. The (albeit limited number) of people I've spoken to since the debate are in the 'anyone but these two' camp. So protest voting the president, but supporting the Dems in Congress lame ducks Trump.
Genuine question for anyone thinking Bernie would be Trump in an election. Why? And I dont mean provide me with a list if things "you" like about Bernie and stating what "you" think the US needs. I mean why would the US electorate, with their very different political mindset choose him.
There's absolutely nothing I've read or watched that indicates the US is that way inclined?
The main reason I think Bernie could win is that the "blue collar" Trump supporters would switch to Bernie. In 2019 there was a few interviewers who went to some of Trumps campaign rallies and spoke to the crowd, without leading questions or trying to just take the piss but just asking basic questions about what they want and believe could change. And it was quite clear that they liked Bernies policies.
The thing is the GOP actually understand the problems that people have, they are just corrupting and twisting them to their own advantage, but the rhetoric at least addresses their problems. The Democrats just don't seam to want to acknowledge the problems, they think if they can just obfuscate and ignore the issues (Bidens ability to rule being just another example).
It won't happen, again in 2019 while the Democrats were bemoaning the GOPS efforts in disenfranchising voters, they were doing exactly the same in disenfranchising Bernie supporters in the primaries.
Biden is dead in the water, they would probably be better being honest and stating that he is only a figure head and really central office are running the show.
I think over here in the UK we have to face facts - Obama was the outlier as a successful candidate we could actually imagine voting for and being popular here. Americans are not us with a shitty accent. They are genuinely different, with different priorities and a different moral compass. Personally I've come to loath them as a collective. If it wasn't for the impact of US politics on the future of the globe (and that's diminishing pretty quickly) I'd happily ignore them, leaving them to squat in their own filth.
And it was quite clear that they liked Bernies policies.
In my view, this is a very poor indicator of how people will actually vote (unfortunately).
I think over here in the UK we have to face the facts, our political landscape is far more similar to the US than it is different, we both have 2 major parties that are right of centre and moving further right, the GOP and the tories are completely batshit mental, and the dems and labour have stopped challenging the right wing framework and have just become what the parties they have meant to oppose stood for 20 to 30 years ago.
The main reason I think Bernie could win is that the “blue collar” Trump supporters would switch to Bernie.
I’m really not sure about this. A while back I was listening to some thing from a blue-collar Marco Rubio rally and they were all talking about the American Dream. I don’t think the idea that the state should provide a safety net is on the majority of blue-collar Americans’ radar.
Opinion polls in the past have placed Sanders as the best Democrat candidate to beat Trump.
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-poll-election-2020-biden-bloomberg-1483423
I don't know about recent polls but I have little doubt that Sanders will still not be acceptable to the Democrat establishment.
I don’t know about recent polls but I have little doubt that Sanders will still not be acceptable to the Democrat establishment.
There comes a point where the "establishment" has to accept a couple of simple facts. They don't have the luxury of time and you have to be voted for to win.
It doesn't matter how acceptable you are to the grandees if you can't fulfill those criteria.
In theory people are voting for their state representatives and senators, not their President. The two are so intertwined for voters as to be indistinguishable but a strong Congress can be extremely influential through guidance to the President
The other thing that the "establishment" has to consider is who decided the tactics that put them in this position. A televised debate with someone who bombasts, blusters and doesn't have to recall facts because he doesn't use facts would be my last choice
Saunders is basically considered the same as Karl Marx in the US.
He would never win a presidential election.
Opinion polls in the past have placed Sanders as the best Democrat candidate to beat Trump.
No doubt there were some polls that said Corbyn would beat Johnson, but there's a difference between 'correct' and 'electable'
Since the debate Biden has gone up in some polls ... any ideas?
Said it earier, Sanders is older than Biden, you put him in a full presidential campaign and he'd be looking his age in no time at all, the third wheel nominee's tend to be able to take it a lot easier and can promise the world and play the others off against each other, it's why over here you get the greens or reform getting the cheers in televised debates, dependent on audience of course, as they can just play the crowd.
Anyway, i don't see Biden and Kamala stepping down, the only thing that would stop Trump getting elected is if he has some major medical issue or meltdown, other than that, we'll be welcoming President Trump again.
“. the only thing that would stop Trump getting elected is if he has some major medical issue or meltdown, other than that, we’ll be welcoming President Trump again.”
No, he’ll be beaten by a bigger margin than last time. Bidens poor showing in the debate will be forgotten in a week, those who are undecided (HTF can you be undecided?) will not remember it come November. Thee is still another head to head debate in September, Biden needs to sort himself out for that, if he does OK in that, he’ll have the election, as Trump does not appeal to new voters, he has some support, it is they who will be the only ones to vote for him.
Biden won't do better in any future debates, that is who he is now, an old man not quite in tune with what is going on around him.
The republicans knew before the debate, which is why Trump was prepared to just let Biden speak instead of constantly interrupting him, which we all know shutting up is not Trump does instinctively.
Biden needs to be replaced now, it is idiotic arrogance by the democrats party machine to believe he can continue on and win.
All the gains made and the damage done to Trump with the court cases has been washed away in 1 night, I think the only way to overcome it, to make it look like it was just a bad night, was for Biden to come out campaigning quickly with an articulate and passionate speech or two. That hasn't happened because he just doesn't have the capability.
Post debate Ipsos 538 polling here
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll
Relevant to the current chatter here
Despite the poor ratings of Biden’s performance, few respondents are no longer considering voting for Biden.Among respondents who completed both the pre- and post-debate survey, just 4% are giving less consideration to voting for Biden. In comparison, 2% are giving less consideration to voting for Trump following the debate.
As a whole, in the pre-debate wave, 44% of respondents reported that they were considering voting for Biden. This was unchanged in the post-debate wave, where 46% said the same of Biden.
The percent of respondents considering voting for Trump (44% pre-debate, 44% post-debate) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18% pre-debate, 18% post-debate) was also unchanged.
538 article https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/
The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate. (Note that this was not a straight horse-race poll; respondents could say they were considering voting for multiple candidates.)
Trump’s support, meanwhile, barely budged, perhaps a reflection of the fact that, while Biden performed poorly on Thursday night, voters weren’t especially impressed with Trump’s performance either. The share of likely voters who said they were considering voting for Trump after the debate climbed from 43.5 percent to just 43.9 percent.
why Trump was prepared to just let Biden speak
Not because they switched his mic off when it wasn't his turn to speak then?
No doubt there were some polls that said Corbyn would beat Johnson
I doubt that.
And I think most polls showed that Sanders was the best placed Democrat to beat Trump, it wasn't just the odd outlier.
Post debate Ipsos 538 polling here
I think what most pollsters are missing, as they always do, is the difference between pre election poles and exit poles. Natural dems who are not massively motivated just won't turn up with Biden - the 2024 version- on the ticket. Or at least not in the numbers needed in the states that matter.
I don’t know about recent polls but I have little doubt that Sanders will still not be acceptable to the Democrat establishment.
There comes a point where the “establishment” has to accept a couple of simple facts. They don’t have the luxury of time and you have to be voted for to win.
It doesn’t matter how acceptable you are to the grandees if you can’t fulfill those criteria.
The problem if you choose a 'vote-winner' over someone who is the best leader for the party is you win the vote and then the party gets torn apart. An incredibly pertinent example being Trump - he gets the votes but putting him in the driving seat means everything around him gets destroyed. 40 out of 44 of the most senior officials who worked around Trump in his presidency are not endorsing him this time round. Its easy to forget now that the republican senate and congress are pandering to him, that they themselves blocked much of what he tried to do in Governments - in fact they didn't start to back him until he was being impeached.
On this side of the pond Johnson had very much the same effect - easy to sell to voters - pretty much impossible to govern with and he actively drove anyone half useful out of the party. Corbyn similarly was popular with the crowd at Glastonbury but destructive to the party - and he was very much a similar figure to Sanders - a publicly popular figure precisely because he's a party outsider.
I think what most pollsters are missing
I think it goes further than that, as they need respondents to the polling in the first place. So if theres a significant demographic motivated to vote, but not to respond to polling, it'll be a false reading.
To be clear, I've no idea how this election will pan out. And the suggestion that there are significant sections of the electorate not responding to polls is not something I know to be true or false.
538 article https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/
/blockquote>
Just to let people know, 538 is no longer the same 538 it was at the last election. Nate Silver left and is now doing his own thing.Unfortunately much of his analysis is behind a paywall now but here's his immediate take on the debate:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out
He pretty much nails it there.
The problem if you choose a ‘vote-winner’ over someone who is the best leader for the party is you win the vote and then the party gets torn apart.
The difficulty is time. The most important thing for the Democratic Party now is to get this election won because the option is four years of MAGA.That'll be a disaster for the US and a disaster for Ukraine
I'm not backing any presidential candidate because I can't see a clear vote-winner amongst them, that's on the Democratic Party who've made their choice. They now need to decide what they're doing going forward
My opinion, FWIW, is that Dems will win but only because of a swing and silent majority rather than exceptional candidates. If Joe Biden is elected President again then he could resign in January, which would give the next incumbent two full terms plus the balance of Joe Biden's second term, almost three full terms
Joe Biden stands now then resigns immediately if he wins? Can't see it and it would be a real slap in the face for voters. It would also need agreement about who his VP would be - chosen for their ability to be president and not because they ticked demographic boxes.
I think what most pollsters are missing, as they always do, is the difference between pre election poles and exit poles. Natural dems who are not massively motivated just won’t turn up with Biden – the 2024 version- on the ticket. Or at least not in the numbers needed in the states that matter.
Same on the other side though, neither candidate is going to really be inspiring the people in the middle. And post MAGA there's a lot of "middle" that the democrats could be wooing.
Supreme court has ruled that presidents have immunity from prosecution. End of democracy?
^^K-rist.
"No one is above the law" Sure.😐