Agree re C, plus to be meaningful the choice would have to be between No deal and remain. I think a referendum would be a disaster. It’s just making Cameron’s mistake a second time
As far as I can see, and I'm been wrong so many time before there is no kind of 2nd Ref Leave can win, and it's not a 'best of three' type thing as Leavers keep saying.
Ref 1 was "In/Out" but as "out" was only a theoretical position it was all things, to all people - don't like Darkies? Then it's a closed boarder, think annoying legislation is stopping you from exploiting your fellow man for money? Then it's an open boarder and a trade deal with the US, China and the Middle East, think open boarders is under cutting your members wages and prospects? Then it's the single market without FOM and a dozen other possibilities - we couldn't have all of those things, but that's what leave Promised.
Forgetting the polls are suggesting that a simple rerun would go the other way, if it's:
Remain - No Deal, Remain wins.
Remain - May's Deal, Remain wins.
Remain - as yet unnegotiated Corbyn Deal, remain wins.
3 way between Remain, No Deal and Deal Remain wins by a country mile.
The biggest danger of course, and the one I'm vary cautious of when Corbyn walks about Ref2 is Deal v No Deal, that's the one when we're offered the choice of Vote for something you don't want, to avoid something you really don't want.
Remain – No Deal, Remain wins.
Remain – May’s Deal, Remain wins.
Remain – as yet unnegotiated Corbyn Deal, remain wins.
3 way between Remain, No Deal and Deal Remain wins by a country mile.
Sauce?
I hadn’t considered this, but I think you’re right.
Question is, who…?
Tom Watson would probably be the obvious choice Jess Phillips would probably get a look-in, but I don't know if she's a bit too down to earth to seem State-personly enough (is that right?) to be seen as PM by voters. David Lammy is probably a bit too divisive.
Keir Starmer is probably the perfect Centric Labour Leader, apart from the fact he's only been in Politics a short while (He's been Knighted, he's a former QC and went to Oxford and has a handful of honorary degrees all earned prior to Politics, but he's a self-made Son of working class parents and named after the founder of the Party). Momentum will ****ing Hate him though as a 'red Tory'.
Leftfield - Sadiq Khan, but I think he'd have to resign as London Mayor and become an MP again first.
Really leftfield - Chuka Umunna, he was well in the running before Momentum came about.
Remain – No Deal, Remain wins.
Remain – May’s Deal, Remain wins.
Remain – as yet unnegotiated Corbyn Deal, remain wins.
3 way between Remain, No Deal and Deal Remain wins by a country mile.Sauce?
Opinion based on polls taken pretty much since the words 'Hard Brexit' and 'No Deal' entered the public mind.
As far as I can see, and I’m been wrong so many time before there is no kind of 2nd Ref Leave can win
That's pretty much what Cameron thought.
If there's another referendum Leave won't even need to mention the EU. The whole referendum can be about "We told you once, kick the establishment in the bollocks.". Personally I think Leave will walk it. But it really doesn't matter, the polls are still about 50:50. (Full Fact covered this on FB yesterday.) Whatever we guess it's tight and a Leave win means leave, and a Remain will means it hasn't been put to bed and it's best of three.
(My political predictions are almost always wrong.)
Tom Watson would probably be the obvious choice Jess Phillips would probably get a look-in, but I don’t know if she’s a bit too down to earth to seem State-personly enough (is that right?) to be seen as PM by voters. David Lammy is probably a bit too divisive.
Keir Starmer is probably the perfect Centric Labour Leader, apart from the fact he’s only been in Politics a short while (He’s been Knighted, he’s a former QC and went to Oxford and has a handful of honorary degrees all earned prior to Politics, but he’s a self-made Son of working class parents and named after the founder of the Party). Momentum will **** Hate him though as a ‘red Tory’.
Leftfield – Sadiq Khan, but I think he’d have to resign as London Mayor and become an MP again first.
Really leftfield – Chuka Umunna, he was well in the running before Momentum came about.
All great candidates. All candidates Momentum would block. The left have finally totally taken over Labour after 100 years when they thought they'd lost the battle for good in 1997. They aren't gonna throw it all away now.
Copied off daily mash:
Boris Johnson
There will be voters in the next election who were not yet born when Boris Johnson began his epic run for Conservative prime minister. The blonde buffoon, who is secretly incredibly evil, ****ed over the entire country to get back at David Cameron and would happily cause nuclear war to reduce sales of Cameron’s memoir. Odds: 8-1.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
The choice of Tory members who just want to watch the world burn, Rees-Mogg was a laughing stock at Eton. At Eton. Imagine how much of a bellend you would have to be to be a laughing stock at Eton. Hobbies include sticking pins in the feet of six-year-old chimney sweeps. Odds: 40-1.
Michael Gove
The sentient bacterial colony inhabiting the once-living body of Michael Gove cannot understand why it is not already prime minister, since it has the backing of ‘the Murdoch’. It blames humans. They are illogical and weak and must be culled. Odds 5-2.
Amber Rudd
Remember when Jeremy Corbyn got put on the Labour leadership ballot as a polite gesture to the party’s left? That’s what Amber Rudd is to the Tories now. That’s how far right they’ve gone. Odds 100-1.
Daenerys Targaryen
Burning thousands of innocent people to death just to prove you deserve to be in power is Tory to the core. However Daenerys may face opposition from the Tory grassroots, particularly women, because she is a woman. Odds: 9-1.
Nigel Farage
Oh, just give it to him. He’s run your ****ing party for the last nine years anyway. Odds: Evens.
In fairness to Amber Rudd
That's not a clause I ever thought I'd read.
no one either here or in the EU seems brave enough to call that ‘No deal or no brexit now’ bluff
You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It's a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won't agree to half the house.
The UK: "if you don't give us what we want* we'll leave with nothing."
The EU27: "Awesome. Bye!"
(* - once we've worked out what we want of course, we'll get back to you on that)
Question is, who…?
Tom Watson.
You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.
The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”
The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”
It's because everything's reciprocal. If the UK leaves with nothing the EU also leave with nothing.
The one time the EU have conceded anything in this whole process was when they wanted a long extension and May wanted a short one and for a short period they really believed the UK could leave with no deal by default: They conceded the short extension. Leavers have used this as evidence that the EU would have conceded more if they're really thought we would leave with no deal and they have a point IMHO.
Tom Watson ,so real he didn't have to change his name from Stephen.
BJ is a bloody idiot IMO but I dont care who gets in as long as its not Gove!!!
Now the rest of Europe can laugh at us a bit more now!
This Spectator blog sums up the clash between pragmatism, ideology and the impasse where we find ourselves: Swivel-Eyed Loons
In short, most Tory MPs were broadly supportive of May's Withdrawal Agreement, but the grassroots activists (which have latterly been quietly usurped over by BluKIP) have a stranglehold over policy.
It's going to be a bumpy ride for the next decade or so. Regardless of whether one thinks that Brexit will/will not happen, the demand from activists who have little or no care for the impact on the economy will only grow louder as reasonable voices leave the party in disgust. Party finances are reportedly in a shoddy state, I would not be surprised if the reason why the Conservatives aren't contesting the Euro Elections (remember to vote on the 23rd May for your choice of unelected EU bureaucrat) is because what's left in the kitty is earmarked for a GE in the not too distant future.
Boris lacks both the attention to detail and the intellectual muscle to think up a strategy to pull the party out of the mire, so expect his premiership to be littered with meaningless populist soundbites and cronyism. Although it makes me sick to say this, I'd rather see Gove than Johnson at No 10.
It’s because everything’s reciprocal. If the UK leaves with nothing the EU also leave with nothing.
Yeah, but those two "nothings" aren't directly comparable. We're one country out of 28, the EU will lose (proportionally based on MEP numbers) a tenth of its membership, the UK will lose nine tenths of ours. It's like me threatening never to shop at Tesco again and expecting Tesco to come begging me not to because of their lost profits. It'll hurt the EU, sure, but it's a drop in the ocean compared to how it'd affect us. As a bargaining tool it's a really, really stupid one.
You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.
The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”
The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”
(* – once we’ve worked out what we want of course, we’ll get back to you on that)
No deal is bad for both sides, it just hurts us a lot more - the EU doesn't want to let go of 14% of it's total GDP, but we're straying into EU Ref thread spin-off number 893 here.
zippykona
Subscriber
Tom Watson ,so real he didn’t have to change his name from Stephen.
Do you fancy expanding on that?
It’ll be Sajid Javid.
You think brexiters will vote for a <church bell> ?
Do you fancy expanding on that?
I believe thats a yaxley-lenon reference
Rudd with odds of 100:1, I'll slap a fiver on those odds, has the same background as Maybot, shit Home Secretary.
JRM would never stand for leader, he may be held accountable.
Next Labour leader will be Rebecca Long Bailey I reckon. Unfortunately.
You think brexiters will vote for a <church bell> ?
Did you just call the Home Secretary a massive donger?
You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.
The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”
The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”
(* – once we’ve worked out what we want of course, we’ll get back to you on that)
It’s because everything’s reciprocal. If the UK leaves with nothing the EU also leave with nothing.
It’ll hurt the EU, sure
See? You *do* understand it.
No deal is bad for both sides, it just hurts us a lot more – the EU doesn’t want to let go of 14% of it’s total GDP,
+1. Lots of reasons the EU want this to go away and *really* don't want a no-deal Brexit. Another example: If Brexit turns the UK into a Basket case, that will be the EU's mess to clear up purely because of our geographical proximity. (In the same way that the UK had to underwrite Southern Ireland a few years back.) If Brexit works out ok then places like Spain will see there's a way out.
but we’re straying into EU Ref thread spin-off number 893 here.
+1. I got lured in. 🙁
Boris lacks both the attention to detail and the intellectual muscle to think up a strategy to pull the party out of the mire
I don't think the party *can* be pulled out of the mire. ...but the country *can* be pulled out of Brexit and I'm pretty sure it is/will be.
JRM would never stand for leader, he may be held accountable.
Haha! JRM's Victorians has been mauled by at least one prominent critic here., he's not as clever as he'd like you to think and he has done everything that he can to avoid being accountable for his part in the unfolding Project Brexit disaster.
Rudd(erless) has been a mixed Home Sec, her acknowledgement of damaging policy is tempered by her need to appease her increasingly rabid local association balanced against her close call during GE 2017 when she came within a couple of hundred votes of losing her seat. She's clearly May's anointed heir, but expect her constituency to be a key battleground in any GE.
I cannot see Wrong-Daily as the next Labour leader, honestly I see the pendulum swinging back towards a moderate like Thornberry or Yvette Cooper.
she came within a couple of hundred votes of losing her seat.
Surely this alone rules you out as leader?
I don’t think the party *can* be pulled out of the mire. …but the country *can* be pulled out of Brexit and I’m pretty sure it is/will be.
FWIW, I sincerely hope that you're correct on both counts. If I get to see the Conservative party become an electoral pariah that fades into oblivion at a GE then the resulting celebrations will merit an epic piss up.
honestly I see the pendulum swinging back towards a moderate like Thornberry or Yvette Cooper.
I can't see Momentum letting go, ever. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't see how I can be.
(In the same way that the UK had to underwrite Southern Ireland a few years back.)
Point of order, there's no such place as Southern Ireland. I think you mean the Republic of Ireland or Eire. 'Southern Ireland' is a phrase many Irish find (understandably and rightly) ****ing annoying.
but we’re straying into EU Ref thread spin-off number 893 here.
... which is a good point, and one I didn't help. <mod>Can we stay on topic please, people.</mod>
So who would make a better PM than BJ?
Member
I can’t see Momentum letting go, ever. I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t see how I can be.
Momentum do not have the sort of power you envision and are not a monolithic entity able to act as one to control the party!. Starmer or Khan would both make likely future leaders. Starmer especially - his stock has risen the last couple of years unlike virtually every other politician around.
our best hope was Corbyn and May
*Walks slowly into garden with bottle of whiskey and revolver*
So who would make a better PM than BJ?
A potato on a stick?
If Brexit works out ok then places like Spain will see there’s a way out.
LOL, the Spanish are for a referendum (65%) but just 13% of those polled want out. Try speaking to a few Spanish people, every single one I've spoken to thinks Brexit is the Spanish for bonkers.
I am totally behind Boris for PM.
Yours sincerely,
Stuart Donald.
Scottish Nationalist.
Poor old Boris, his constituency have gone all remainey on him.
Traitors!
'****, where did I put that other speech?'
The next labour leader will be whoever Jeremy says it’s going to be. Soviet style. They’ll no doubt be as useless and ineffective as Magic granddad has been
As for the Tory leadership, it’s academic. Whoever it is will be a rabid Brexiteer who is going to make the last 2 years look like a model of calm, rational, reasoned and effective government
Sigh, rocket scientist are all pro EU (I know a few).... Maybe just maybe the Spanish aren't stupid enough to look at a single metric & jump to a conclusion about it, even if from that 1 does lie in their favour.
I suppose if you're dumb enough to think that's all the EU is about then youre probably stupid enough to think Johnson will be a good PM.
Johnson is the PM for leavers that buy into his poundshop Churchill sham, to them Brexit is courage facing down the evil EU
In reality it's cowardice , the world is complex & messy & if leavers had any testicular fortitude they'd stay in the EU & fight for what they believe in, not run away.
Likewise no deal Brexit- it's a surrender, the reality has proved to complex, too tough, too demanding, they'd rather flounce out & pretend that being a loner wa s what they always wanted.
Johnson is a similar coward.
Maybe the Spanish MEPs are actually doing thier jobs rather than turning up to meetings once in a blue moon just to annoy every one and bugger off back home to lie to thier people about how awful the EU is?
Just a thought.
My money is on Gove getting Tory leadership. As far as Labour goes, I’d like to see Yvette Cooper as leader, as I think she’d do a lot better at PMQ circus than Starmer or Watson. Then, if Labour did get elected, Starmer as Home Sec, Watson as Health or Education Sec.
hmm...might be getting a bit ahead of myself there;)
My money is on Gove getting Tory leadership
Frustratingly if it wasn't for his rabid Brexit-mongering I imagine he'd be a boring but fairly competent PM. Fixed most of Grayling's mistakes as Justice Secretary and appears to be pissing off the party faithful as environmental secretary, which can only be a good thing.
Frustratingly if it wasn’t for his rabid Brexit-mongering I imagine he’d be a boring but fairly competent PM.
Is he a rabid Brexiteer? I always assumed he'd supported leave out of Political expediency? (Genuine question I don't know the answer.)
In office people can't follow their own views anyway, they have a party to keep happy and an electorate to please. Personal objectives are the first thing that have to be dropped. See Corbyn a rabid Brexiteer since at least 1983, in office he's mildly Brexiteer and would happily remain or leave if it made the issue go away before the next GE.
Is he a rabid Brexiteer? I always assumed he’d supported leave out of Political expediency? (Genuine question I don’t know the answer.)
My OH certainly thinks he is a rabid Brexiteer (amongst other, mainly unmentionable, things😄). But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t get in and cancel Brexit, claiming he was lied to by Boris et al, and looking to pick up more votes than he’d loose in a GE. I don’t know, but reckon he’s the only leadership candidate that could get away with something like that.
Boris et al are just going to be seat warmers as they don't have the guts to lead.
The next GE will be fun ...
Gove has argued for many years that we should threaten to leave & use it to negotiate a better deal.
That plan has blown up in his face, he's now meekly behind Mays deal, even though he knows it's terrible, he knows leaving without a deal is lunacy.
He's a calculating shitweasle
Is he a rabid Brexiteer?
Yup. From memory he holds a grudge against the EU for passing laws which caused financial issues for his dads firm when he was a kid. Also from even vaguer memory I believe his dad said it was sod all to do with the EU.
So unlike Boris he actually believes in this shit.
He’s a calculating shitweasle
TBH I prefer a calculating shitweasle to a gormless shitweasle.