LINO (May) has confirmed she will step down after the next meaningful vote, and Boris has launched his leadership bid 💩
God help us!
It's worst than that Jim, Gove is a front runner...
It will be between Johnson or Raab. They will reach out to Farage to get the Brexit vote, there will most likely be another General Election as parliament won't pass any Brexit deal, but it's a big risk for them, if Corbyn backs Remain he could well win a General Election.
Crazy times. I think Johnson will most likely prevail however and there will be a Brexit deal at the last hour, using the threat of a WTO Brexit, but we are now looking at least a year down the road.
The other factor is Macron, he could kick the UK out in October without a deal.
Didn’t bj stab POB in the back last time round? Should get quite messy soon will the last person out please switch off the lights if any are still lit by then🤬
Hmmm. Round ‘em up, put ‘em in a field and bomb the bastards.
BoJo just needs the ERG seal of approval and the leadership will be his, he's been waiting in the wings for this for some time now, lost some weight, marriage skeletons out of the closet, kept relatively quiet while all the MP farcical voting on Maybots deal was going on, but made sure to stick with ERG friendly messages when he did pipe up. Hes being carefully managed.
This is a done deal, somebody told him it wasn't the right time after Cameron stepped down, he backed off and May Grabbed that poison chalice...
As for the GE?
if Corbyn backs Remain he could well win a General Election.
Nah, he's split the core Labour voting base more with Brexit than the Tories have the LDs will benefit more from Jezza's stance than he will. More Tories will swing back from UKIP/BP than Labour...
The next GE will be BoJo's to lose, not Corbyn's.
The other factor is Macron, he could kick the UK out in October without a deal.
If Macron hadn't given Britain 6 months more the country would be out by now. No-one is forcing Britain out, it was Britain that invoked Art. 50. And Art 50 can be withdrawn anytime before October.
As for Boris, a serial liar, upper class twit, blustering fool, xenophobe, and representative of those who'll vote for him. Look around the world, a lot of countries have leaders in the image of their country men and women. Russia - Putin; New zealand - Ardern; Canada - Trudeau; Germany - Merkel; France - Macron; Britain - May... Johnson is an equally good fit.
Look around the world, a lot of countries have leaders in the image of their country men and women. Russia – Putin; New zealand – Ardern; Canada – Trudeau; Germany – Merkel; France – Macron; Britain – May… Johnson is an equally good fit.
That is quite some statement.
Do you always make such daft generalisations? You do understand that not everybody in each country thinks or acts the same way.
Try a few examples. I think it was an economics lecturer who I first heard say, "people get the leaders they deserve" or something to that effect. I restricted my example to the west, now try it for other geographical regions. A generalisation it is, daft it isn't. So when you vote be careful what you wish for, because a lot of very bad people have been elected even in places where people have democratic values and sytems, and you didn't need hindsight to know where it was going.
The extreme right is gaining suport in many areas, elected by people with right wing views who are most likely to suffer under an extreme right régime. Now that's daft. But they get what they voted for and deserve.
If you get Boris it's because as a people you deserve him.
Ah I just posted on That Thread,
Not for the first time in the last couple of years, I find myself deferring to the wisdom of Douglas Adams.
“It comes from a very ancient democracy, you see…”
“You mean, it comes from a world of lizards?”
“No,” said Ford, who by this time was a little more rational and coherent than he had been, having finally had the coffee forced down him, “nothing so simple. Nothing anything like so straightforward. On its world, the people are people. The leaders are lizards. The people hate the lizards and the lizards rule the people.”
“Odd,” said Arthur, “I thought you said it was a democracy.”
“I did,” said Ford. “It is.”
“So,” said Arthur, hoping he wasn’t sounding ridiculously obtuse, “why don’t people get rid of the lizards?”
“It honestly doesn’t occur to them,” said Ford. “They’ve all got the vote, so they all pretty much assume that the government they’ve voted in more or less approximates to the government they want.”
“You mean they actually vote for the lizards?”
“Oh yes,” said Ford with a shrug, “of course.”
“But,” said Arthur, going for the big one again, “why?”
“Because if they didn’t vote for a lizard,” said Ford, “the wrong lizard might get in. Got any gin?”
“What?”
“I said,” said Ford, with an increasing air of urgency creeping into his voice, “have you got any gin?”
“I’ll look. Tell me about the lizards.”
Ford shrugged again.
“Some people say that the lizards are the best thing that ever happened to them,” he said. “They’re completely wrong of course, completely and utterly wrong, but someone’s got to say it.”
“But that’s terrible,” said Arthur.
“Listen, bud,” said Ford, “if I had one Altairian dollar for every time I heard one bit of the Universe look at another bit of the Universe and say ‘That’s terrible’ I wouldn’t be sitting here like a lemon looking for a gin.”
You are watching the death of the union. Brexit combined with a leader as unpalatable as Boris will drive Scottish independence. The Irish land border is also finished. England and Wales, standing alone, will be greatly diminished on the world stage, as their strongest tether will be to the USA, who are also waning, and because England and Wales (the 'united' kingdom of the future) are uncoupled from Europe.
It is a shame when Europe needs to be united as other states surpass the USA. And all because the Tory party had a long standing bone of contention to sort out.
Ha! Wot, LyingBloHard ??
Pittiful.
Let him win, that seals the fate of these lying bastards.
Boris has zero chance of winning the leadership. He's popular with the members but hated by the parliamentary party. Boris is the Tory Corbyn. Tory MPs have seen how that film ends they won't let it happen.
I can't imagine who will win (or would want to win) the Leadership but it won't be Boris.
Gove's not popular, and I can't see him being a vote winner but by all accounts he a sharp cookie who grasps his brief quickly. Given the dearth of Political talent at the moment he'd be my best choice from the few potential candidates I know anything about. Gavin Williamson seemed to candidate but he was the second most incompetent cabinet member which has pretty much ruled him out.
Caveat the above with the fact that my political predictions are almost[1] always wrong.
[1] A few weeks ago I could say my Political predictions were *always* wrong but I got one right recently which broke my unbroken streak. 🙁
He'd just drag the tories further into the gutter, so I don't think it would be too bad if bojo was leader... He'd never get anything through the commons it would be zombie government 2.0
All will fall if Brexit is not achieved or just in name only.
Boris won't win. Gove has shown himself to be inept and awful in all previous positions (his work on education was pitiful) - surprised anyone would rate him as a potential leader.
JP
Depressing times, this lack of leadership and no ability to negotiate is exactly the sought of environment that allows the extremists to increase in popularity and come to power.
I remember discussing with my old man years ago that would it be possible in this day and age for a "Hitler" to come to power again in a western democracy. Trump is not quite there, Corbyn is a velvet Stalin in the making with the nasty momentum organisation quashing any serious dissent, is someone waiting patiently in the wings?
Where we go from the European Elections I don't know but I think it'll be a political version of Slim Pickens sitting on the Bomb at the end of Dr Strangelove.
Boris won't get in (please) and Gove is only ever going to be a number 2 (pun intended).
chewkw
Member
All will fall if Brexit is not achieved or just in name only.
Brexit is already dead chewy, brino is the best you'll get. Boris doesn't have a plan to make it work he could well be the next PM even after a GE, like Farage people will vote for him too, but he has no plan either.
You'd think that leavers would've learnt by now not to believe these populist conmen, but sadly not.
And even tho borris has been a terrible foreign sec & mayor (riots, garden bridge anyone, etc)
He's still enough of a vote winner that the MPs will go for him.
Look at May her record as home secretary was absolutely dreadful, many of the failings that fueled the Brexit backlash were on her watch, her legacy in policing etc. Yet she was still seen as a 'safe pair of hands' for Brexit...Superhans was right
Boris has zero chance of winning the leadership. He’s popular with the members but hated by the parliamentary party.
It's not about MPs liking him, it's about making him party leader to win the next GE.
Boris is the pragmatic MPs choice, he's a populist in an environment where populism is thriving. You really think Raab or Gove can woo the Brexit ultras back, appeal to root and branch "moderate" Tories and even have a bit of appeal with some of the metropolitan types?
Nope he's been lined up for this one.
To be clear though, Tory leaders aren't the ones in charge, they're just the fools that think they can be. Hoisted up as figureheads for the proles to gawp at or throw rotten fruit, while others weave their machiavellian intrigues out of the public gaze...
The tactic is to make sure every leadership contender is awful. Hunt's been setting up his leadership bid, Amber Rudd's still talked of as a contender (excuse me, disgraced former home secretary Amber Rudd)... There's not one likely candidate that isn't basically a nightmare.
It’ll be Failing Grayling......
Brexit is already dead chewy, brino is the best you’ll get.
🤣
Boris doesn’t have a plan to make it work he could well be the next PM even after a GE, like Farage people will vote for him too, but he has no plan either.
Anyone that fights for Brexit with one brain cell will win. 😂
Anyone with a big brain intelligence that tries to prevent Brexit will lose no matter how desperate they hang on ... 😄
You’d think that leavers would’ve learnt by now not to believe these populist conmen, but sadly not.
ALL politicians need to be populist to win regardless.🤔
The Boris Trump show gets ever closer.
Say it won't happen, well, again... Trump.
Boris won’t win. Gove has shown himself to be inept and awful in all previous positions (his work on education was pitiful)
Gove was quite well regarded as Justice Secretary. He did follow Grayling though.
As for BJ -
"OK, cards on the table. Johnson is the only MP who if elected PM would cause me to leave the Tory party. Everybody likes him except the people who know him. Total chancer who doesn’t read his papers. Cynical & self indulgent."
— Steve Norris
It’ll be Sajid Javid.
What’s wrong with him? The more he tries to come across like Churchill the more I think he’s the sort of man who can make the trains run on time 😉
The thought of Boris Johnson PM has me trumpin and putin
The tories need to stop their donors from deserting the party. A lack of money seriously threatens the tories ability to compete in the next GE. They also need to counter the current populist faarange, especially with his appeal to those voters the tories consider their own.
Additionally, the tories would probably like their next leader to appeal to Trump a bit more than May does. This would also help thwart faarange’s appeal with the more extreme right wing Tory voters.
Does anyone think Gove, Raab & co can do all of the above? Nope, didn’t think so.
Boris is a shoe in.
Is Rees-Mogg running?
Because of weird tory party rules the party at large only get to chose from a shortlist of 2. the shortlist is voted for by the parliamentary party. Enough of the MPs so hate Johnson that they will make sure he is not in the final 2. The ERG are not that enamoured of him, they have true believers to call upon.
Pound Shop Trump.
<Spits on ground>
I know that the baying prats in the Home Counties love him, but no one in the parliamentary party trusts him, and rightly so.
He’d adopt the Euro, change the national anthem to ‘Ode to Joy’ and make croissants for breakfast compulsory if it advanced his personal ambition. He has no true convictions that do not relate to his own advancement.
It is nutters like Baker that we really need to be rid of. He’ll always be there, whispering poison in the monarch’s ear, the Eminence Marron.
agree at least Johnson is simply about naked ambition
born again Baker has the manic dead eyed stare of the zealot
anyway NSFW
https://twitter.com/Cassetteboy/status/1129045200129671168
It’ll be Sajid Javid.
I'd forgotten him, that's where my money is for the time being.
It's like choosing your method of execution:
Jeremy Hunt/ lethal injection
Michael Gove / electric chair
Esther McVey / death by lobotomy
Boris Johnson / death by chocolate
What I'm trying to say is Boris Johnson is a fat ****
Because of weird tory party rules the party at large only get to chose from a shortlist of 2.
That's not weird, that's an essential check and balance as we can see by what happened to the Labour Party. (Mind you the Labour sensibly had an MP nomination system with a highish bar to ensure whacky candidates that can't work with the MPs get don't get selected by the members. It's just their MPs decided to let a whacky candidate through to widen the debate. The debate certainly got widened!)
Enough of the MPs so hate Johnson that they will make sure he is not in the final 2.
Yup, deffo this.
(excuse me, disgraced former home secretary Amber Rudd)
In fairness to Amber Rudd, after she was forced to resign as HomeSec she was shown to have been very badly let down by her officials, i.e. they consistently gave her poor and incomplete information.
Of all the contenders, she's the best I reckon. I say that in the spirit of 'choosing how you'd like to be kicked in the bollocks', but she is the lesser of the available evils.
TBH, the entire thing is no-win:
a) Brexit - no win, it's just a stupid thing to do
b) No Brexit - no win, as there's a serious democratic deficit there
c) Second referendum - no win, as it either ratifies the first one, so see a), or it's 52-48 to Remain, so no-win as the same arguments will rage on
d) General Election - no win, as Corbyn may win on a Remain ticket, so Brexit may be canned (good), but then he'd be PM (bad). Or the Tories win on an even more right wing, hard Leave ticket, so a no-deal exit is more likely (very, very no-win) and there horrific policies will continue, and get worse.
We are, as Oscar Wilde put it, utterly ****ed
There's one thing I can't understand about the Tories.
The vast majority of them are (believe it or not) Centrists, The only reason why the likes of the ERG have been able to wield so much power is because May has a tiny majority. They're a thorn in their side, not king makers.
Yet despite this, everyone is fairly certain that the Tories are going to appoint someone from the Eurosceptic right of the party.
everyone is fairly certain that the Tories are going to appoint someone from the Eurosceptic right of the party.
Because they know they're generally unpopular and need every vote they can get, and the only place they see themselves getting those votes is from the right-wing public who may otherwise vote for Farage
There were 2 telling quotes about Johnson from people who have worked with him, both saying the same thing.
"everyone likes him, apart from those that know him"
and
"the more you get to know him, the less you like him"
I don't think he's got a chance. The Tory party never elect the clear favourite for the leadership. Especially when said favourite seems to regard it as a formality/birthright
The membership would elect him in a heartbeat, but its not their gift to give. He has to get past the MPs first to end up on the ballot. Boris isn't just disliked, he is absolutely loathed by a significant number of them. There is enough of an 'anyone but Boris' rump to unite to stop him. Not least because a lot of them reckon, probably correctly, that his promotion to PM would be such an absolute disaster it would mean the Tories out of power for a generation
Anyway.... I'll just leave my illustration I did of him during the referendum to reflect my view of him...
[img] 
[/img]
a) Brexit – no win, it’s just a stupid thing to do
b) No Brexit – no win, as there’s a serious democratic deficit there
c) Second referendum – no win, as it either ratifies the first one, so see a), or it’s 52-48 to Remain, so no-win as the same arguments will rage on [snip]
Agree re C, plus to be meaningful the choice would have to be between No deal and remain. I think a referendum would be a disaster. It's just making Cameron's mistake a second time.
Not so sure those are the only ways out though. May could try one last time and legitimately argue she gave it her bast shot and it's not currently possible so she's withdrawing Art 50 and leaving it to a future administration to leave if they think they can. She can point out that any party is able to campaign and win an election and do it themselves. Then she resigns and takes the blame.
Alternatively she could leave Art 50 going and at the next election Lab and Con both campaign on a remain ticket. People still have a Brexit option via UKIP or the Brexit party. If a remain party won they can revoke Art 50 in accordance with their Manifesto promise.
The Tory party ought to be toast over all this but who knows, Corbyn/Momentum haven't come out of this well either...
everyone is fairly certain that the Tories are going to appoint someone from the Eurosceptic right of the party.
Bet they don't.
TBH, the entire thing is no-win:
a) Brexit – no win, it’s just a stupid thing to do
b) No Brexit – no win, as there’s a serious democratic deficit there
c) Second referendum – no win, as it either ratifies the first one, so see a), or it’s 52-48 to Remain, so no-win as the same arguments will rage on
d) General Election – no win, as Corbyn may win on a Remain ticket, so Brexit may be canned (good), but then he’d be PM (bad). Or the Tories win on an even more right wing, hard Leave ticket, so a no-deal exit is more likely (very, very no-win) and there horrific policies will continue, and get worse.
Brexit was always no win, from the moment Dave allowed a simple in/out question, how he didn't see it coming I don't know. If it had gone the other way I'm pretty sure they could have put the ERG and UKIP to bed, at least for a decade or more.
I think, sadly Brexit will happen, our best hope was Corbyn and May thrashing out a deal which involved a confirmatory vote.
I can't see 'No Brexit' happening, yeah technically we've passed a law against 'No Deal' and there's a deadline, but no one either here or in the EU seems brave enough to call that 'No deal or no brexit now' bluff, maybe they're waiting for the polls to inch a little closer to remain, maybe the EU elections next week (which are shaping up pretty badly at the moment). Maybe they would revoke A50 with some withering line about spending the next 5 years getting a deal, who knows.
I can't see another GE coming, the polls are scattered to the 4 winds, it would certainly be another coalition.
For me, the answer to the UK's political woes isn't a new Tory leader, it's a new Labour leader - yeah I know Corbynists won't agree, but he's lost one GE, lost seats in the Local elections AGAINST MAY and will likely get battered next week too. If Labour can find an Electable Leader who can actually unite people and not divide them, the Tories are dead in the water and could spend the next decade or more in opposition, again.
For me, the answer to the UK’s political woes isn’t a new Tory leader, it’s a new Labour leader – yeah I know Corbynists won’t agree, but he’s lost one GE, lost seats in the Local elections AGAINST MAY and will likely get battered next week too. If Labour can find an Electable Leader who can actually unite people and not divide them, the Tories are dead in the water and could spend the next decade or more in opposition, again.
I hadn't considered this, but I think you're right.
Question is, who...?
our best hope was Corbyn and May thrashing out a deal which involved a confirmatory vote.
Corbyn/May want a deal because they can draw a line under brexit before the next GE which both main parties need but their MPs clearly won't accept it. May's deal is dead, we're remaining. We just don't know how yet.
For me, the answer to the UK’s political woes isn’t a new Tory leader, it’s a new Labour leader
I like this, but it won't happen. And if it did wouldn't that mean Labour either campaigning for Remain in a GE (or forming an ad-hoc coalition for remain and calling off Brexit) and taking the blame for doing it? It would be my preferred solution, but why would they? In the national interest? (Chortle.)