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surely knowing that a large majority of your party want you gone isn’t a tenable position?
Only if they can do something about it.
Let's all enjoy this glorious moment.
Wow. That escalated quickly.
I know Johnson will never resign, but if he does squeak through, surely knowing that a large majority of your party want you gone isn’t a tenable position?
If he gets through it's a large minority want him gone - 52:48 and all that....
I believe these things are always called a vote of confidence. Don’t know why this forum seems to add the ‘no’ to it.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/vote-of-confidence
Only if they can do something about it.
They can vote against the government until he gets the message.
If a hundred MPs vote against him in a VONC, a significant number of those could then rebel in other votes his government calls… and then as a lame duck PM he is pushed into an election or resigning (my money would be on the former). Winning the VONC isn’t necessarily the “safe for a year” gain that the supportive press would paint it as.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1533708967775436801?s=21
Don’t know why this forum seems to add the ‘no’ to it.
As the tweet above proves. It’s not just this forum.
Yeah it is technically a vote of confidence.
But I'm guessing sentiment is bursting through for the 'no'.
The Thatcherites are queueing up so it's hardly good news. This is a fight for a type of conservatism rather than getting rid of the Tories.
Jez Hunt will likely win a leadership battle then it's game over for the current Labour party.
(Johnson is a wriggler he will offer up more bombs for Ukraine and tax cuts in the background.)
If johnson survives the VONC that does not guarantee him 12 months without further challenge.
Brady could, as he did with May, say that the 1922 executive have discussed changing the rules to allow another vote within 12 months.
Although May won the vote the threat of another vote almost immediately was the catalyst for her departure.
Only if they can do something about it.
This is supposed to be the way the Tories do something about it although normal rules don't apply here. I mean a VONC is supposed to be a massive hint. I can't imagine for a second that Johnson will take it. I think Johnson's such a massive narcissist he will only want to go when he wants to. This "govt" is dedicated to just one thing, ensuring Johnson continues as PM, everything else has been pushed to the sidelines.
Oh, and on the personal note… we should all absolutely embrace people who once had faith in Johnson and/or Brexit but now see them for what they are. Remember, there was a time when he was winning London Mayoral elections, and he was just as corrupt and self serving (while cleverly playing the “not a normal politician” game)… but since then the people of London have overwhelming come to see him for what he really is. And the same is becoming true across the country now. He is the problem, not those who have taken longer to see through him. Let’s fix the Britain that Johnson broke, together.
Let’s fix the Britain that Johnson broke, together.
That needs painting on the side of a bus, or condensing to three words
My email to graylin
History is being written tonight .
Hopefully you will be remembered as someone who voted to get rid of someone who lied to Her Royal Majesty and partied the evening before The Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral.
Please don’t miss the opportunity to start righting the wrongs of a self entitled buffoon who has cast a dark shadow of this Platinum Jubilee year.
God Save The Queen.
He writes back when I come over all red white and blue rather than angry anarchist.
My ideal next few years:
Johnson Out
More moderate tories
Next GE no majority
Lib/Lab coalition
Proper referendum on PR
Vote for who i believe in.
For me the best outcome is that Johnson narrowly survives the vote and clings on. This will create maximum damage in the tory party and removes their ability to say at the next election " We got rid of Johnson, the new PM is nothing to do with him, you can now vote for us safely"
It also stops a new PM from a "reset"
All their energy will be taken up with infighting - it paralyses the government.
I think this is how it will go.
the Danger there is Johnson calls an early GE lumbers Labour/lib dems with the shit show.
the Danger there is Johnson calls an early GE lumbers Labour/lib dems with the shit show.
Yep I'm running this one around me head.
It's a threat for sure.
The Conservative Party is at the thin end of a slippery slope, the floodgates will open.
Prime Minister Truss? Prime Minister Rees Mogg? Whilst it's hard to imagine things being worse, it's entirely possible.
the Danger there is Johnson calls an early GE lumbers Labour/lib dems with the shit show
In what way will the "shit show" be better in a few years time? The opposition parties need to be ready to inherit a mess, at any time. The bigger danger is that at some point six months of tax cuts, flag waving, blaming the EU and othering of minorities wins Johnson a second term and much longer to dig us an even bigger hole for others to dig us out of.
Let’s just enjoy Dumbojo having a shit day.
He's not bothered about a 'shit show' to pass on, he's bothered about him. He couldn't give a flying **** about any damage he's done, he doesn't even see it. How detached and self-obsessed do you have to be as PM to be giving the finger to people in a restaurant?
@dantsw13 Yep, agree with all of that.
In the meantime, having a VOC isn't the same as him losing it, and if he wins it even by 50% +1, he'll claim it as a vindication. Under current rules he can't be touched for a year after that but as we all know the 1922 committee rules can be re-written whenever they feel like it.
Just up on BBC News:
A vote of confidence in Boris Johnson will be held by Conservative MPs from 18:00 to 20:00 BST
Be interesting to see if he clings on but then the Tories get hammered in the 2 by-elections (West Yorkshire and Tiverton & Honiton) next week. That'll add a LOT of pressure on him to go.
Interesting that the vote is happening so immediately.
what would be the harm/benefits in holding it in a couple of days?
delay gives those against Johnson more time to organise and to coalesce around one candidate.
A delay also gives more time for more newspaper headlines slating Johnson
The longer the build up the more time for plotters to plot. So I'm guessing the short timeframe suits bozo.
what would be the harm/benefits in holding it in a couple of days?
I'm guessing doing it with immediacy creates a bit of chaos and/or prevent opponents being organised.
BUT everyone knew it was coming soon, so you'd hope opponents are more than ready!
Delaying the vote would give time to the johnson out grouping to
co-ordinate and lobby others to vote against him.
Timing of the vote denies them that opportunity which is helpful to No 10.
Johnson would have been very busy on the phone over the last few days. Anyone still believing anything he promises them in a private phone call isn't fit to be an MP.
I'm guessing he doesn't want to go into PMQs on Wednesday with it hanging over him
I’m guessing he doesn’t want to go into PMQs on Wednesday with it hanging over him
There's always the chance that he goes into PMQs on Wednesday having lost the vote! He won't / can't resign immediately, it's just the start of the process to oust him.
Either way I think the Tories are screwed.
An 80-seat majority won on the basis of installing someone well-known as being a lazy narcissistic liar selling Brexit as being "done".
The Tories will tie themselves in knots to defend him if he does win - JRM will no doubt forget that although Theresa May narrowly won her VONC, she was still pressured into going but I bet this time he'll be defending Boris to the hilt saying that he's been vindicated, we should move on blah blah.
My understanding is that the 54 letter line was breached last week, but SGB held off announcing due to the Jubilee weekend
I know Johnson will never resign, but if he does squeak through, surely knowing that a large majority of your party want you gone isn’t a tenable position?
Political guy on the News this morning. He said that like May, if he thinks it'll be close, offer to resign before the next election instead of being booted (but will they trust him) equally, if he's worried about Red Wall Tories he might threaten a snap GE to let the 'nation decide'.
It could be the end for him tonight, or it could be the begining of the end, but either way, he's a dead man walking.
Based on prior experience I’m not getting excited.
I don't know what the best result here would be. I was talking to my Russian colleague the other day and something she said sums up UK politics at the moment:
'People always say things can't get any worse but that's just not true. Things can always get worse. Until you die, then things can't get any worse.'
I think the best result would be if he lost narrowly and then refused to go.
Whether it's Johnson or a replacement what worries me is that they will try to 'consolidate' the tory vote and/or scorched earth of more privatisation and more inflating the housing market. They will bring in more legislation against industrial action and demonstrations as the only pay rise (for some) will be a few months before the election.
if he’s worried about Red Wall Tories he might threaten a snap GE to let the ‘nation decide’.
Kamikaze-style general election during a cost of living crisis? Would Tory MPs actually allow that to pass a vote?
A narrow win in the VOC would be hilarious (and probably necessary), to hear the screams of the Tory Party now firmly shackled to him as he plunges into the depths.
He'll sleaze out of it tonight, but by-elections will be tough, if they lose Wakefield but keep Tiverton then he'll probably be able to limp on further.
If they loses both they'll boot him out, even if it means rewriting the rules.
Either way my mood is still
Why are lots of people assuming getting rid of Johnson will be good for the tories and bad for labour? The last election was won by red wall voters breaking their ties with labour to vote for Johnson, not the tories. They believed Johnson was different to all the other tories and gave a shit about working people who had been forgotten by metropolitan woke liberals. If Johnson goes so does their votes. This is a lose-lose situation for the tories, especially given the lack of an obvious replacement.
My bet is that he'll win narrowly and cling on. Main reason is that the heavier hitters will back off because they don't want to replace him knowing that they're doomed anyway. One thing we can be certain of now is that the tories are done. Starmer must be thanking his lucky stars.
Whether it’s Johnson or a replacement what worries me is that they will try to ‘consolidate’ the tory vote and/or scorched earth of more privatisation and more inflating the housing market. They will bring in more legislation against industrial action and demonstrations as the only pay rise (for some) will be a few months before the election.
Same guy on the Radio today, Red Wall Tories want the Cost-of-Living crisis sorted double quick, that could be Sunak shaking the magic money tree again, but more Traditional Tories in the South are all about 'prudence' and 'Conservative Values' and they're the ones making the most fuss to their MPs at the moment.
I guess we must think, as terrifying as it is, what do Tory Party Members want, because they elect the sucessor? I’m thinking austerity, immigration control and the like?
Labour seem to have their Civil War under control for the time being, it’s time for the Tories to tear themselves apart.
the heavier hitters will back off
There is no-one in the present Tory ranks who meets that description.
52% - 48% in Boris's favour should give him a mandate
Would Tory MPs actually allow that to pass a vote?
Be tricky for him personally as well. Whilst a not bad majority it isnt amazing and a concerted effort could well get him out especially if a bunch of tories stay home in disgust.
the heavier hitters will back off
There is no-one in the present Tory ranks who meets that description.
No one with the gravitas of Matt Hancock?
If Johnson goes so does their votes.
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-red-wall-voters-turn-against-tories-poll-suggests
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/red-wall-poll-results/
[ that Times one is pay walled ... try this ... https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/05/28/yougov-mrp-boris-johnson-set-lose-seat-labour-swee ]
There is no-one in the present Tory ranks who meets that description.
I meant the more serious candidates rather than nutters like Truss. Sunak, Mordant, Tugendhat, Zahawi etc will all hold back as they don't want to inherit a shitshow of a party/govt doomed to lose the next election. The narcissists and idiots like Truss, Gove, Raab and maybe Javid would step forward just so they can be PM for a couple of years before being booted out.
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
True. But people have short memories, and Johnson is an expert at blowing the dog whistles. They can either kiss goodbye to those votes by changing back to a true-blue leader, or take a punt on Johnson winning back their trust. Either way the red wall is probably gone, along with a load of seats in the shires to the lib dems, and complete annihilation in London. They f*****!
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
Aye, and even before Partygate they'd been drifting away as it became apparent that Levelling Up was nothing but talk.
Sunak, Mordant, Tugendhat, Zahawi etc will all hold back as they don’t want to inherit a shitshow of a party/govt doomed to lose the next election.
Sunak has blown it already, but other than that, this is a fair statement. Anyone half serious will be looking at the current state of affairs, plus the power whatever the ERG is calling itself this week has to disrupt any sensible policy agenda, and thinking 'no'.
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
I'm sure some will still be clinging to the myth that he is some kind of relatable, everyman vote-winner.
I mean, look at this 'briefing note' to MPs from No.10.
He's certainly relatable - most of us know a narcissistic arsehole.
He'll hang on until they lose Honiton and Tiverton. then they'll get rid. It is Raab's time and they need a fall guy. Gove and Javid are too smart to have anything to do with the mess.
It is Raab’s time and they need a fall guy. Gove and Javid are too smart to have anything to do with the mess.
I'm half wondering if Shapps will go for it. I know that he's one of the perennial idiots wheeled out to defend the latest indefensible indiscretions from Boris but I think he's probably got half an eye on the top job too and he's not quite smart enough to swerve it.
It's always those "I have no interest in standing for PM..." people you need to watch out for cos their tune rapidly changes to "I would be honoured to lead the party / country into the next election..."
I was under the impression that BJ was the only person willing to take on the shitshow last time around. Now it’s many times worse. Who’d want that?
Gove and Javid are too smart to have anything to do with the mess.
Yes they are smart but they will also know that their chances of being a future PM are almost zero, so their ambition could get the better of them. This especially applies to Gove, his star has fallen so far this will be his only chance, and he has Murdoch behind him too.
Well I've just won £20 on getting the VONC announcement would be today. Putting the original stake of £5 on Johnson 'winning' the vote by a margin of less than 5%, just for giggles!
Whatever happens tonight though we're all in for a few months of pain while the Tory party self-destruct. I can't see any other path they will take unfortunately.
has he called fraud yet ?
I know that audiences do not represent a wider constituency but listening to R4 Any Questions from Freshwater on Friday evening was interesting. The Isle of Wight returned a Conservative MP with more than 50% of the vote but by the sound of it the audience were laughing and heckling anyone who attempted to defend or justify Boris. If I was a a Tory MP in a safe seat I’d be getting nervous with a reception like that.
Or fortunately, for the longer term!!
I think the best result would be if he lost narrowly and then refused to go
This is surely the most likely outcome? Or maybe squeak a win by one vote and announce this as a firm mandate for his continued leadership.
He won’t resign under any circumstances. He’s shown that multiple times. He is devoid of shame and thinks that everything is about him, and his interests come before the party and certainly the country’s interests
I can see him having a massive tantrum and calling a snap general election just to throw a hand grenade into proceedings. Or announcing Martial Law and imprisoning anyone who voted against him in the tower. Or declaring war on France. Or all three of those things at once
Whoever wrote that briefing note needs to lay off the formatting.
Whoever wrote that briefing note needs to lay off the formatting.
i think they have an account here...
○ [U]It's all about the boosterism...[/U] fake energy and no real work.
○ [U]Promise them anything...[/U] and when it doesn't materialise, promise it again.
○ [U]Only Johnson can fix...[/U] everything he's broken.
○ Nobody trusts Boris Johnson... [u]trust in Boris Johnson[/u].
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-tory-cult
Vultures circling, there's a definite shift in tone across lot of the media this morning. Be interesting to see tomorrow's headlines. Willing to bet the Mail and Express will manage to find a dinghy full of refugees and dead cats...
He’ll hang on until they lose Honiton and Tiverton. then they’ll get rid.
If he wins tonight, by whatever margin (which is quite likely), he can hang on for at least a year under party rules, and would no doubt try to call a GE during that period to head off another attempt.
So the central question is what would it take for him to actually resign? He probably believes his own PR. The Mail appears to have gone all-in for him, which is odd, it can normally detect when the prevailing wind has shifted.
I can see him having a massive tantrum and calling a snap general election just to throw a hand grenade into proceedings.
This would be amazingly entertaining, and possibly more likely than it sounds. He'll sell it as letting the people decide rather than his MPs. It's the nuclear button with a massive 'do not press' sticker over the top of it and he could just be crazy enough to go for it.
Whether it’s Johnson or a replacement what worries me is that they will try to ‘consolidate’ the tory vote and/or scorched earth of more privatisation
Absolutely.
We have got so dumbed-down with poor behaviour we are not looking at end-game.
This chap thinks he has something to sink him once and for all
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533730751920885763
Sunak, Mordant, Tugendhat, Zahawi etc will all hold back as they don’t want to inherit a shitshow of a party/govt doomed to lose the next election.
Sunak has blown it already, but other than that, this is a fair statement. Anyone half serious will be looking at the current state of affairs, plus the power whatever the ERG is calling itself this week has to disrupt any sensible policy agenda, and thinking ‘no’.
I can't argue with any of that, but...
I fancy the writing on the Wall says the Tories are going to lose the next election, the only question at the moment is by a little, or a lot, which will depend on whether Johnson leads them.
The Next goverment in 2024, like Biden in a way, will likely come into No10 past the apex of Covid / Brexit / CoL. Meaning, unless there's another crisis, the news will be of improving fortunes for the UK. Certainly by the end of that term it's likley things will be a lot rosier than they are now (not exactly) hard, so they'll likley win the next, next election too.
I'd bet Sunak et al, are seeing Data that says, they can (possibly) be PM now, and have 2 years to try to fix things, or take over as Party Leader in Opposition in 2024 and then possibly/likely lose that election, which could mean resiging as leader.
Their best bet to be PM for any length of time, could be to take it now, and hope and pray they can turn things around by 2024.
It’s on the television news non-stop here in northern Spain. The cafe owner just asked us where we’re from, looked at the telly and rolled his eyes. Laughing stock of the bloody world! 🙄
The bookies odds on him surviving are 1.2/1
The exact same odds as the Lib Dems winning the Tiverton by-election
Laughing stock of the bloody world! 🙄
Never understood why people care about this. 'We' are not a laughing stock, our politicians are.
It doesnt really matter if Johnson is voted out or not, its how the public now view him and the tory party in general.
I think if he retains his job, theres more chance he'll fk it some more and persuade more and more voters not to vote tory in the next election.
The bookies odds on him surviving are 1.2/1
bookies odds are mostly based upon prevailing voting - so all that number suggests is that slightly more of votes which have been placed so far are at that rate..
If he wins tonight, by whatever margin (which is quite likely), he can hang on for at least a year under party rules
They can change the rules fairly easily though (its just a 1922 committee thing rather than a general mp or tory membership vote) and they have threatened to do so on several occasions.
and would no doubt try to call a GE during that period to head off another attempt.
I dont know about that. His own seat isnt overly safe and could see a serious effort to get him out supported by a bunch of tories staying home.
So the central question is what would it take for him to actually resign?
A better offer?
So the central question is what would it take for him to actually resign?
he's not the resigning type.
Why are lots of people assuming getting rid of Johnson will be good for the tories and bad for labour?
I don't think it's so much "bad" for labour, more that if they manage to shake Borisconni and most of his cabinet loose from the leadership now, they'll have time to regroup and campaign effectively for the next GE, whereas having him as leader at least until a point closer to the next GE makes the Tories position potentially weaker, they can more easily labelled as the party of privilege, sleaze and broken promises.
But it's all 'if and/or maybe' and if there's anything the last few years has taught us, its that UK politics is not as predictable as people would like to believe.
I don't think anyone gets to have their cake and eat it in all of this.
First priority is to see what the outcome of the VOC will be, beyond that it's all speculation. Does a VOC remove Bojo? if not does not, does it weaken him or embolden him and galvanise his base in the Tory party?
I'm expecting the latter TBH, but you never know.
Does a VOC remove Bojo? if not does not, does it weaken him or embolden him and galvanise his base in the Tory party?
Losing a VO(N)C means the PM is expected to resign.
But then lying in the HoC means the MP concerned is expected to resign and that's not happened so who knows. I'm sure BJ will just rewrite the rules to say "now is not the time, war in Ukraine, levelling up, blah blah" and it might take some more concerted action to actually get him to go.
Winning means he could in theory stay on but Theresa May was forced into outlining her exit plan and standing down even though she won. Mind you, there was a lot of plotting from the Brexity Morons to get her to go.