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I didn’t post deliberately to offend Elshalimo. Perhaps I didn’t think it through but like I said I don’t have much capacity for politics. I wasn’t expressing based on race or minority but trying to reflect a very generalist line.
Those who shout loudest are all you hear.
The real question is how we engage the others to raise their voices in response.
The real question is how we engage the others to raise their voices in response.
IMO, one of the biggest steps is to get rid of FPTP for all elections.
Far more reliable correlations include.
Number of flat-roofed pubs in the vicinity.
Number of England flags blocking upstairs windows per street.
Number of men who think a 'singlet' is appropriate street wear per head of population.
^^^^^^ it is. Maybe a splitting of the vote into many not just two parties can be a step to that. For one as a life long Labour supporter, I don’t see future elections to oust Conservatives as Labour must win but the opposition must win, the opposition is really much more then the house majority opposition.
Judging by our local town Facebook group it not so much nationalism up north as extremely narrow minded localism and denigration of the other. Boris has very successfully tapped into this horrible trait in many people. They enjoy being bigoted and racist, it's a badge of belonging, now Boris and Trump have legitimized being nasty they are lapping it up. Not sure how Labour counters it, Starmer is too much like the big boss at work, not one of them, Corbyn was a communist wage stealer taking from the hardworking folk, he wasn't, they aren't. The only upside is these littleminded people are going to get crushed in the upcoming financial meltdown. Unfortunately so are a lot of others and I do fear what sort extremist nonsense will come afterwards.
Boris let the naked populism genie out of the bottle and its not going back in willingly.
Edit Matt is right, it needs diluting, FPTP encourages it.
Far more reliable correlations include.
Number of flat-roofed pubs in the vicinity.
Number of England flags blocking upstairs windows per street.
Number of men who think a ‘singlet’ is appropriate street wear per head of population.
More crap.
Most of the pubs round here that I would avoid don’t have flat roofs.
There are plenty of England flags, but it’s still a huge minority, the difference is you notice them and they’re vocal.
Tories have no councillors in Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Bristol, Norwich, Oxford and Cambridge. They have 1 out of 84 in Sheffield.
Tories have no councillors in Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Bristol, Norwich, Oxford and Cambridge. They have 1 out of 84 in Sheffield.
Hull has gone from Labour to Lib Dem which is interesting.
Anyway, our glorious leader will address the press* shortly:
*the friendly nice press owned by billionaire Tory donors, not the nasty left-wing press that might say horrible things about him or ask awkward questions...
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1522470126431449094?t=0c2iLvioCrJAroQTwon2dQ&s=19
Feels like a Brexit split / backlash to me, the more metropolitan South disagrees with the more nationalist North.
There's a bit of that but lib Dems have made some surprising gains
Locals though so who knows
Seems like the only way of getting rid of the Tories now is some sort of centrist progressive alliance between Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP.
Would be messy though. Labour is a fairly divided church (despite the work done by Starmer to purge some of the more crazy left wingers), plus their stance against PR. Sturgeon would demand Indyref 2 for the price of entry. Greens would no doubt want the whole endeavour pulled further left, and what do the Lib Dems actually stand for nowadays?
Hopefully the met will crack on with the rest of those fines now.
what do the Lib Dems actually stand for nowadays?
Who cares? They're not the Tories
It'll make no difference. There's only enough change to make one more interesting PMQ about it, and as per crazy-legs post Boris will come up with a sickly positive spin on "See, there no one better than me, I got (insert list here) done".
We are stuck with him smugly lining their pockets whilst bumbling through recession and inflation for 2 more years at least.
Judging by our local town Facebook group it not so much nationalism up north as extremely narrow minded localism and denigration of the other.
If you regularly watch the vox-pops on the Northern news, you'll see that a lot of this isn't idealogical at all. Its nothing to do with nationalism, Brexit or anything else like that
What the Tory's have done very successfully over the last 12 years is to pin the blame for the massive cuts to public services in these areas on their sitting labour MP's instead of central government. Its something you get to hear repeated time after time... "we've always had a labour MP and look at the state of... (insert moan of choice here)
Its sad but from George Osbourne onwards they started a campaign of blame-storming as they instigated their austerity agenda, and it's worked
More crap.
Well, it was meant to be taken with a pinch of humour.
🤷♂️
On a more serious note, I think a fair few backbenchers will have a swipe at Johnson next week (with an eye over their shoulder at their constituents) then it will fizzle out. This isn't the kicking I, for one, had hoped for.
The Graun seem to be trying too hard 'mixed picture cannot obscure anger at Johnson'. Oh yes it can. And if there is one thing he is good at, it is 'obscuring'.
Very well put Binners.
The "what has my Labour MP/council ever done for us, they're closing everything" line comes up again and again. And the Conservatives have been playing on it very well with some obvious (but rarely actually delivered) spending promises that look like pork barrel politics... promising levelling up (while cutting back).
I was staying up late to watch the result but decided I better sleep.
It looks like Tories are getting a hammering but BBC shows them down by two councils and not as many Councillors (-76) as they should be.
And the Conservatives have been playing on it very well with some obvious (but rarely actually delivered) spending promises that look like pork barrel politics… promising levelling up (while cutting back).
In this constituency (which is a marginal rather than 'red wall') the Tory MP (majority of 100) was made to take down claims in numerous social media posts that the area has benefitted from government money from pot A and Pot B and Pot C of different funding steams. The local Labour party pointed out that all these funds had been APPLIED FOR, but no actual decisions have been made, and certainly no money has come through. The area hasn't seen a penny!
I imagine this has been replicated throughout the country
Our results aren't due in here until this afternoon, so it'll be interesting to see if their outright lies have worked
It looks like it's on course to be as expected, not a landslide, but enough losses to hurt, and it's good to see the Lib Dems and Greens gain, they need to become better supported and represented parties, as any talk about Labour vs Tories is just doing them a disservice.
It's also useful that it's not enough of a kick to take down Boris, the longer he's in charge, and the closer they get to a GE the more damage it'll do when they have to replace him, or go to the voters with him!
Lib Dem gains the result of lifelong tory voters that can't bring themselves to vote labour?
Absolutely what @binners and @kelvin said ^^.
It's nasty, divisive, spiteful politics. If you're in an area run by an opposition council, you'll get less funding anyway, no matter how much you need it. If you're in a nice safe Tory seat (which historically of course has been London / the south), funding will come pouring in.
This of course exacerbates the north/south divide, contributes to huge wage and house price imbalances. And then it can all be blamed on "the opposition".
Lib Dem gains the result of lifelong tory voters that can’t bring themselves to vote labour?
Or the greens, i dare say it'll be more about viable candidates and who the candidate is in most instances, in our area labour are a distant third, greens are fourth, but in other areas, greens could be the one to unseat.
I'd also struggle to see lifelong tories not voting tory, there's a reason that when you go to the polling station early it's lined with gammon!
In the 'Nationalist' north of Workington where I live Labour have just taken control of the new Cumberland council (doesn't technically start until next year).
The Tories lost 14 seats with labour gaining 12! This is a big deal.
And I'm pretty confident it wouldn't have happened if Corbyn had still been in charge of labour.
Sorry to all of his devotees but that's just the way it is up here. And before anyone starts - I voted for Corbyn twice.
Maybe this won't be replicated in the GE but its a bloody good start given my current MP is an ex-UKIP nobber (have a look at his Facebook/twitter feeds if you want to see how far from a 'one-nation' tory Jenkinson is!!!). At the minute I'll take what I can get.
EDIT - possibly should have put the last three paragraphs in the Starmer thread... 🙂
Labour have just taken control of the new Cumberland council
That is very good news, in a bag of mixed news.
This form of Conservative Party retreating, bit by bit, into an England only party?
https://twitter.com/gillibrandpeter/status/1522546161982263297?s=21
Glad to have played my tiny part in that, if it transpires...!
This form of Conservative Party retreating, bit by bit, into an England only party?
Scotland and Wales will be crying out for independence! Then they'll rejoin the EU and that'll leave little old England, stuck forlornly in the middle. Well done Boris!
Marina Hyde is on good form.
Fingers crossed Fadda.
into an England only party?
Scotland currently at -31 Conservative councillors (and independents lost another 13 seats). This is heading for a quarter of their seats.
I particularly liked this from the Hyde opinion piece.
Calling an election when you won an 80-seat majority not much more than two years ago feels like the equivalent of having a baby to keep your marriage together. A baby with your wife, I mean, not some art consultant or heavily injuncted Jane Doe.
Narf!
This has slipped under the radar a bit.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/may/05/the-fudging-is-over-as-monetary-policy-committee-predicts-102-inflation
Double digit inflation by Q4 now the mainstream forecast.
And despite their reliance on Russian gas, Germany has lower inflation than the UK.
Meanwhile the very clever and correct Adam Posen says 80% of UK inflation can be attributed to Brexit.
Inflation was always going to be the death knell for Brexit. The only question is how much pointless pain are 'we' willing to put up with before we start reversing Brexit bit by bit.
Give it up. It's not going to happen. Just accept that you live in a country willing to have a hamstrung economy to feel they've escaped having to deal with other countries. Yes, it's shit. Yes it's pointless. No, it's not going to be reversed at all. Expect us to be running to the IMF long before we consider working collaboratively and fully with all the other countries across Europe (and that's not just the EU states, but all the other countries as well). We're not going to learn, we're going to soak up all the cost and economic harm, and end up blaming the people hit hurts hardest labelling them scroungers and unwilling to work hard. You know that's the real path we're on. It's not going to change any day soon. Don't get sucked into that fantasy.
The IMF will rightly say "you've done this to yourselves, now grow up and start being a proper developed country again".
I'm soooooooo looking forward to this nonsense imploding under the weight of its inherent contradictions and stupidity.
🤗
I would be applauding those last 2 posts if I had enough financial backing for my immediate family covering the next 20+yrs. As it is I just nod in agreement and worry like f--k about the future
Meanwhile the very clever and correct Adam Posen says 80% of UK inflation can be attributed to Brexit.
There is no doubt that there are huge inflationary problems caused by Brexit but given the US' inflation is running at 8.5% you have to look at the larger supply chain picture across the world.
But wasn't America in the throes of a broadly-similar bout of isolationism at the same time we were taking back our freedom?
There is no doubt that there are huge inflationary problems caused by Brexit but given the US’ inflation is running at 8.5% you have to look at the larger supply chain picture across the world.
Presumably you'd be happy to sit on a panel opposite Posen and debate this?
Why, then, is Germany's inflation (despite their dependence on Russian gas) around 2-3% lower than the UK?
Now this really is an area where you can say that every country is its own special case, but looked at in the round, EU inflation is lower than the UK with a higher dependence on Russian gas. What could possibly be causing that?
Also, one of the chief bullshit impacts of Brexit is to add time at ports (even if it is checks on UK exports causing the snarl ups). Time = cost in the world of logistics, so Brexit is behind much of the UK's enhanced supply chain problems.
The only question is how much pointless pain are ‘we’ willing to put up with before we start reversing Brexit bit by bit.
Oh that’s easily answerable by the immortal words of Lord Farquuad
Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make.
I alway sound like some mad conspiracy theorist, but I do think they have managed to create a fake reality and the majority of people are happy to go along with it.(yep-watched hypernormalisation)
I do have the added insight of living on the outside and currently looking in but our electricity bills are starting to drop and we had the advantage of a windfall tax being applied which makes me amazed how they brazenly say they can’t do anything and you’ve got another cap price coming off which is expected to push prices up further.
(yep-watched hypernormalisation)
Everyone should.
I do have the added insight of living on the outside
Like Rishi,Farage,BJ et all and the other architects of Brexit, they can sneak off to their offshore retreats and take advantage of the cheap food and leccy along with warmer climate 🙂
Even the Times reading, Tory voting, Home Counties dwellers can’t escape the cost of living crisis
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1482365996136648707?s=21&t=Ra57lKej6iOdAmrDlDxjwg
https://twitter.com/andrew_graeme/status/1523250821869318144?s=21&t=UD7-L79eMCeGcy35BxJDsg
Expert click-bait trolling from the times 😂
Is the one about the hedge fund manager a daily mash article in disguise?
It's ok, this mornings Times front page announces how these poor fund managers will be helped by the post brexit benefits.
Highlights include....
remove environmental protections
lowering data protections rights (even further)
increase nimbiysm
roll back restrictions on the financial sector brought in after 2008
Although it’s an opinion piece in a traditionally anti Tory paper, will Hutton has hit the nail on the head here. The govt are fundamentally incompetent in a way that is deeply damaging to the country and it’s people.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/08/the-economy-is-collapsing-yet-i-cant-recall-a-government-so-devoid-of-a-plan?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I’d love to see more comparisons with similar European countries to what is going on in the U.K. from the press and broadcasters.
Well, one (rich) man's red-tape is another (poor) man's protection.
But that's what 'we' voted for...
roll back restrictions on the financial sector brought in after 2008
Yep Rees-Mogg is very keen on this to release money from the financial sector,sounds all the makings of another financial crash with no recriminations for the bankers.
Reality must prevail about where economic opportunity lies. Modern economies are densely interrelated, with supply chains that cross borders. Britain has too few corporate “primes” that lead their sector, but it does have lots of medium-size companies whose business is being part of a wider supply chain.
Presumably you’d be happy to sit on a panel opposite Posen and debate this?
The BoE on economic outlook?
Yep I would debate him.
Every half decent economist can support post-pandemic supply chain issues.
Brexit is a factor but not 80%.
And they knew Brexit was coming so why not have something in place before then?
Why did they wait so late? Why are they adjusting interest rates to solve a supply chain issue?
It's crud.
,
so Brexit is behind much of the UK’s enhanced supply chain problems.
No way you can extrapolate a percentage of 80% from that with all the other things going off.
Behind European supply chains will be Asian supply chains etc.
Tosh.
^^^
Spoken like a true Brexiteer.
👍
^^^
Spoken like a true Brexiteer.
👍
That's just ridiculous.
I'm a remainer.
Take it up with pro-EU economists Richard Murphy, James Meadway, Danny Blanchflower, Mark Blyth etc.
Just not ex-central bankers - idiots.
Brexit is a factor just not 80%.
Why is UK inflation higher than Germany's despite the latter's much publicised dependence on Russian gas?
To work out the impact of Brexit a reasonable formula might be to take German inflation, knock off a couple of percent and note the difference. Under this rationale you get to something like 40-60% due to Brexit. And don't forget that this compounds. German inflation will level off sooner as it is a one-off shock that can be mitigated to an admittedly higher price, but it will roughly stay there. Constant drag on flows of goods through ports will continue to dog the UK economy for long after.
Good luck with that debate, though. 😅
To work out the impact of Brexit a reasonable formula might be to take German inflation, knock off a couple of percent and note the difference. Under this rationale you get to something like 40-60% due to Brexit
You think you can just knock off a couple of percent and model a complex economic metric with overlapping circumstances.
Don’t mention Brexit! Supply side inflation is all “international”, and nothing to do with goods no longer being traded, or increased costs (including delays) on those still traded. Same goes for reduction in choice and availability. Nothing to do with segmenting our market into its own little special zone.
Anyway, looks like the Met are issuing more fixed penalties today, this time for a Christmas Party in 2020. I’d post a link to a story… but they all seem to have managed to get “Kier Starmer” into their headlines/sub, even though I strongly suspect he wasn’t invited.
^^^
Not really, but your argument is the same as the government's about covid death rates.
We are doing shit, compared to countries A-X, but we can't compare ourselves to A because blah blah.....and we can't compare ourselves to X because blah blah blah.
Which leaves us with Y and Z, who we are doing better than, so job jobbed.
What is the obvious, totally avoidable and unnecessary drag on our economy that distinguishes us from the rest of Europe, I wonder...
Also Germany's current inflation rate is around 7.3%? UK was 7% to March.
The Eurozone like with the pandemic is going to ebb and flow with inflation.
However the ECB is not hiking interest rates like BoE currently.
So your original point is not holding true.
Don’t mention Brexit! Supply side inflation is all “international”, and nothing to do with goods no longer being traded, or increased costs (including delays) on those still traded.
No one said that. Of course Brexit is involved. Just not 80%
But we went through a Pandemic yes.
Maybe you can tell me why Germany's inflation rate is currently on a peg with the UK then?
That's his original point.
The lack of evidence to support the point of 80% of UK inflation being attributed to Brexit is baffling.
I think your both right… it’s a complex model but the gov will use this as a smokescreen to hide the lack of having a plan.
(Although I think the plan was to let the market sort itself, so tough luck if Brexit impacted your business, and could you quietly go out of business so people don’t notice).
And on another prime example of out of touch, joined up government thinking:
BBC News - Final year medical students 'can't afford to pay rent'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-61302377
Why, then, is Germany’s inflation (despite their dependence on Russian gas) around 2-3% lower than the UK?
It's not.
Germany 7.3% UK 7%. To March.
Obviously all lagging.
Take the position that Brexit is bad and clearly a mess but we operate in a global economy that was shut down for the best part of 18months on and off.
Meanwhile the very clever and correct Adam Posen says 80% of UK inflation can be attributed to Brexit.
That this impacts predominantly on the drooling imbeciles who voted for it in the first place, I'm not hugely sympathetic.
The BoE and it's crew are equally culpable in wrecking our finances by stinging the lowest earners to solve an inflationary problem casues by other forces.
It's funny that their mandate was 2% inflation but they didn't really have a clue how to keep it there.
They talk shit.
Without political consent from no10/11, what do you think the BofE can do? Monetary policy levers can’t fix supply side issues, whether global or self imposed.
Without political consent from no10/11, what do you think the BofE can do? Monitory levers can’t fix supply side issues, whether global or self imposed.
Agreed.
But then maybe they can stop pretending they can?
"We set monetary policy to achieve the Government’s target of keeping inflation at 2%. Our Monetary Policy CommitteeOpens in a new window (MPC) decides what policy action we should take to reach that target"
I'm thinking that Posen is a bit of a bogeyman for the Corbynite left as he also openly drew conclusions about the racial element of the Leave vote, especially in the 'Red Wall'.
🙂
And they knew Brexit was coming so why not have something in place before then?
Andy Haldane agrees with you this morning...
The finance expert, who left the Bank of England in June 2021, said he wished more had been done sooner to ease the cost of living crisis, and said he had advocated for action last year.
Asked by Nick if inflation could hit 10% or higher by the end of 2022, he said: "I think it could. I fear it might.
"This isn't a new thing, even this time last year... I was worried that price pressures were bubbling up. As it's turned out things have even surpassed my worst expectations.
...
He called for action in June, as Nick asked why the Bank of England had been "tardy" in taking steps to reduce inflation.
...
"Do I wish we'd done a little bit more a little bit sooner to tighten things up so there wasn't quite as much money chasing quite as many goods, which of course is what brings about rises in inflation in the first place? Yes, I do wish there had been slightly more prompt action."
I still think it's all hot air though. The BofE can't do much to mitigate the damage, because they are due to political, practical and legal barriers, not issues of money supply or industrial or consumer demand. Squeezing the public and/or companies isn't going to free up the restraints or reduce the costs placed on businesses.
Scrapping "red tape" tends to make me irrationally angry. It's not "red tape", it's our consumer protections; our environment; our employment rights; and even our human rights in this case.
The EU didn't put any regulations in place to deliberately stifle trade or growth within the bloc, and I really wish the opposition could make it clear that these changes are not about scrapping red tape, but in fact scrapping hard-won rights of the British public that were enshrined in law until this week.
****ing Brexiteers.
Although the addition of "Patels Law" for protesters seems to be the particular lowlight in the headlines, I'd like to see a list if scrapped EU regs to see what's being removed, anyone find a convenient and easy to understand list?
I really wish the opposition could make it clear that these changes are not about scrapping red tape, but in fact scrapping hard-won rights of the British public that were enshrined in law until this week.
The Great British Public have been indoctrinated over years and years of media coverage to be of the opinion that Health & Safety is a all a waste of time and effort, that "red tape" is all bureaucratic nonsense.
Once again, the public voted for this shit. In this case it is very much turkeys voting for Christmas and I doubt the penny will drop even when half of them are fired with no comebacks or have their wages and working conditions slashed or are moved onto zero-hours contracts.
To be fair, politics has always been about making what you want to do sound like the sensible option. So, yes, if you want to reduce people’s rights you call it cutting red tape.
We had years of governments of all flavours talking about increasing efficiency in the NHS, which sounded great. Then a pandemic hit and we realised that increasing efficiency is just another phrase for removing spare capacity, which is actually quite useful in a health service.
I would be applauding those last 2 posts if I had enough financial backing for my immediate family covering the next 20+yrs. As it is I just nod in agreement and worry like f–k about the future
We're fine, and the kids are all pretty sorted too - but the Tories & their backers are out to remove ALL safety nets (inc. the NHS), and that's a worry for pretty much all of us, even the Professional 'classes'.
Isn't the main part of the queens speech about removing the 'restrictions' placed on the financial services industry after the banking crash?
Along with the freeports stuff, it's just part of the push to turn us into a tax haven for dodgy offshore finance with a sweatshop attached. This was always the plan once out of the EU and it seems they've learnt absolutely nothing from their decades spent enabling Putin and his cronies by laundering their blood-soaked money for them. Not a very stable basis for a national economy, but extremely lucrative for a select few at the top
https://twitter.com/marryhar/status/1523915711139262465?t=KGNvNdbWsWuUKw6iMq-2MA&s=08
Scarecrow festival Norfolk.
Scarecrow or real thing? Can’t tell the difference!
The scarecrow probably has more compassion and empathy, a higher IQ but less inclination to write a racist column in a right wing newspaper and then try and shag anything with a pulse
My Gob, it doesn't cease to amaze me how people can be so insecure and needy of reassurance that they come on here with a little willy wave to tell us how much more they are earning than a garage, how they're so well set up, how smooth life is for them.
If it were true, they wouldn't doing it. But hey, I guess on a normal curve of distribution someone has to be nasty, brutish and short.
I enjoyed the ceremony today, where the future king was sat in his gilded palace with hundreds there to serve him and parliamentarians, to then centre the bills around easing the cost of living and improving the economy 😂
It does make me laugh that politicians are usually told to dress normal, nothing fancy or flash, no expensive watches on show, etc, then we still get this type of ceremony, as is tradition i guess.